Emissions In Developing Countries Research Articles

Carbon Emission Heterogeneity in Developed Countries: Insights for China’s Neutrality Strategy

This study investigates the heterogeneity and driving factors of carbon emission reduction in developed countries, providing insights for formulating carbon neutrality strategies and plans in China. Firstly, typical developed countries worldwide are categorized into four modes: high energy consumption–high emissions, high energy consumption–low emissions, low energy consumption–low emissions and low energy consumption–high emissions, based on the “per capita energy consumption–emission intensity” classification method. Secondly, the LMDI decomposition model is employed to calculate the carbon emission-reduction driving effects of each mode, thereby analyzing the evolution path of carbon emissions. Finally, carbon emission-reduction policy recommendations are proposed based on the current situation of provincial carbon emissions in China. The research findings are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions in developed countries follow the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) law, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped trajectory. In the per capita GDP range of USD 12,000–20,000, carbon emissions in most countries have reached or are close to their peak, with per capita carbon emissions in different modes decreasing and tending towards a level of 4000 kg/person. (2) There is heterogeneity in the EKC of carbon emissions in developed countries, which can be divided into technological, structural, comprehensive and clean types based on differences in emission-reduction factors. The trajectories of carbon emissions in most developed countries follow a clean path, while those in newly developed countries are constrained by environmental pressures and are expected to be between mixed and structural types before the emission peak, and tend towards a clean type after the peak. (3) Energy clean-up is the most direct and efficient method for carbon emission reduction, which can significantly and efficiently achieve carbon emission reduction. Industrial restructuring and technological progress play a significant role in suppressing carbon emissions. Policy recommendations are proposed as follows: first, reduce the proportion of fossil energy and increase energy cleanliness; second, promote industrial restructuring to reduce energy dependence; third, enhance production technology and improve energy-utilization efficiency; fourth, increase technological breakthroughs to support low-carbon transformation; fifth, correctly recognize the differences among provinces in China and formulate differentiated carbon emission-reduction policies.

Greenhouse gas emissions from food systems: building the evidence base

New estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system were developed at the country level, for the period 1990–2018, integrating data from crop and livestock production, on-farm energy use, land use and land use change, domestic food transport and food waste disposal. With these new country-level components in place, and by adding global and regional estimates of energy use in food supply chains, we estimate that total GHG emissions from the food system were about 16 CO2eq yr−1 in 2018, or one-third of the global anthropogenic total. Three quarters of these emissions, 13 Gt CO2eq yr−1, were generated either within the farm gate or in pre- and post-production activities, such as manufacturing, transport, processing, and waste disposal. The remainder was generated through land use change at the conversion boundaries of natural ecosystems to agricultural land. Results further indicate that pre- and post-production emissions were proportionally more important in developed than in developing countries, and that during 1990–2018, land use change emissions decreased while pre- and post-production emissions increased. We also report results on a per capita basis, showing world total food systems per capita emissions decreasing during 1990–2018 from 2.9 to 2.2 t CO2eq cap−1, with per capita emissions in developed countries about twice those in developing countries in 2018. Our findings also highlight that conventional IPCC categories, used by countries to report emissions in the National GHG inventory, systematically underestimate the contribution of the food system to total anthropogenic emissions. We provide a comparative mapping of food system categories and activities in order to better quantify food-related emissions in national reporting and identify mitigation opportunities across the entire food system.

DEA (data envelopment analysis)-assisted supporting measures for ground coupled heat pumps implementing in Italy: A case study

Abstract Nowadays, the increasing of the energy consumption is producing serious global warming issues. Mainly most of greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries come from building equipments. In this context, GCHPs (ground coupled heat pumps) are candidate solution as air conditioning systems in buildings due to their higher efficiency compared to conventional devices. Actually, ground coupled heat pump systems are widely, recognized among the most efficient and comfortable used systems. Nevertheless, economic efficiency of the ground coupled heat pumps has to be proved. In this study, DEA (data envelopment analyses) method is applied to a real case in Italy.

Cooperation to Reduce Developing Country Emissions

Without effective developing country participation in climate mitigation it will be impossible to meet global concentration and climate change targets. However, developing countries are unwilling and, in many cases, unable to bear the mitigation cost alone. They need huge transfers of resources – financial, knowledge, technology, and capability – from industrialised countries. In this paper, we evaluate instruments that can induce such resource transfers, including tradable credits, mitigation funds and results-based agreements. We identify key constraints that affect the efficiency and political potential of different instruments, including two-sided private information leading to adverse selection, moral hazard and challenging negotiations; incomplete contracts leading to under-investment; and high levels of uncertainty about emissions paths and mitigation potential. We consider evidence on the poor performance of current approaches to funding developing country mitigation – primarily purchasing offsets through the Clean Development Mechanism – and explore to what extent other approaches can address problems with offsets. We emphasise the wide spectrum of situations in developing countries and suggest that solutions also need to be differentiated and that no one policy will suffice: some policies will be complements, while others are substitutes. We conclude by identifying research needs and proposing a straw man to broaden the range of “contracting” options considered.

The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

Climate or development: is ODA diverted from its original purpose?

We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar. Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate budget line for such activities to avoid “obfuscation” of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless, mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success. Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically.

Climate Change Mitigation in Turkey

One of the most contentious issues in the debate over global climate change is the perceived divide between interests and obligations of developed and developing countries. Equity demands that developed countries act first to reduce emissions. That principle is embedded in the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which sets binding emission targets for developed countries only. With the Protocol now likely to enter into force, the focus will turn increasingly to the question of developing country emissions. Turkey's high rate of energy-related carbon emissions growth is expected to accelerate, with emissions climbing from 60 million tons in 2002 to almost 220 million tons in 2020. Carbon intensity in Turkey is higher than the western developed country average. Energy-intensive, inefficient industries remain under government control with soft budget constraints, contributing to undisciplined energy use. Planned industrial privatizations may close the oldest and most inefficient operations and modernize surviving ones. Elimination of energy price subsidies could stimulate energy conservation, reducing energy and emissions growth below current projections. This article reviews energy consumption and climate change mitigation in Turkey.

Joint implementation and the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Abstract This paper critically assesses the potential role of joint implementation (JI) in contributing to the achievement of the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, namely, the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels which are non-threatening to human societies and ecosystems. This requires, among other actions, a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions within the next few decades, which in turn requires limitation of population growth, dramatic reductions in industrialized country per capita emissions, and sharply constrained growth in per capita emissions from the developing world. We examine the potential role of JI in assisting development aimed at meeting basic human needs — a pre-requisite for population stabilization — and conclude that JI has little to offer and may indeed be counterproductive. We also examine JI as a vehicle for technology transfer, and conclude that, if JI is to play a useful role here, it must be accompanied by fundamental reform in the nature of current technology transfer and official development assistance. Furthermore, for JI to be effective in limiting the growth of developing country emissions through technology transfer, accelerated development of advanced and renewably based energy technologies by the industrialized world is required, which is unlikely unless these countries commit to making strong emissions reductions of their own.

Energy Efficiency, Economic Efficiency and Future CO2Emissions from the Developing World

This paper examines the potential role of energy efficiency and economic efficiency in influencing the future carbon dioxide emissions of developing countries. It explores and offers support to the hypothesis that, despite the potential value to the developing world of greater energy efficiency, if tight restrictions on global carbon dioxide emissions were considered necessary, efficiency alone could make only a limited contribution to restraining the projected growth of developing country emissions. This is because of the projected rapid energy growth rates in most developing countries, especially in the industrial sector and from fossil-fuelled electricity and transport, associated with growth in per capita incomes and population. The potential contribution of other possible measures to address global carbon dioxide emissions, particularly fuel switching, is also briefly examined.

Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy, part II: Risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis, and conclusions

This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risks associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. A sustained limitation of global CO2 emissions requires global population stabilization, a reduction in per capita emissions in the developed world, and a limitation of the increase in per capita emissions in the developing world. Reducing or limiting per capita emissions requires a major effort to improve the efficiency with which energy is transformed and used; urban development which minimizes the need for the private automobile and facilitates district heating, cooling, and cogeneration systems; and accelerated development of renewable energy. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO2 emissions are reviewed here: (i) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (ii) economic growth might be reduced; (iii) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (iv) early action might cost more than later action; (v) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (vi) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (vii) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Net risk is further reduced by the fact that a number of non-climatic benefits would result from measures to limit CO2 emissions. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risks associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20–30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO2 emissions at the present (early 1990's) level. This in turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40–50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The effectiveness of global CO2-emission stabilization in slowing down the buildup of atmospheric CO2 is enhanced by the fact that the airborne fraction (ratio of annual atmospheric CO2 increase to total annual anthropogenic emissions) decreases if emissions are stabilized, whereas it increases if emissions continue to grow exponentially. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks.

Will Rio stick: Barriers to global cooperation on CO2 abatement?

The Rio Earth Summit resulted in commitments to reduce CO2 emissions from all industrialized countries, but there are many banners to overcome before its full objectives can be met. One major obstacle is carbon leakage, the increase in developing country emissions predicted as a result of OECD policies for abatement. Causes of carbon leakage are discussed here and its magnitude assessed. The effect is found to be relatively small ‐ nevertheless, in the long run policies that provide incentives for CO2 abatement globally will become imperative.