Emission Reduction Efforts Research Articles

A BIM-based Framework for Quantifying Embodied Emissions from MEP Systems in Building Life Cycle Assessments

Embodied emissions from Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing systems (MEP) in buildings contribute substantially to the carbon footprint of buildings. Because of lack of standardized methods, reliable data, and environmental product declarations (EPD), MEP systems have typically been excluded from Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs). With increasing emission reduction efforts for other building components, the share of embodied emissions for MEP will rise if not focused on. This research fills the gap by introducing a comprehensive framework for quantifying embodied emissions for Mechanical and plumbing systems (MP). Our approach includes three main components: a BIM based embodied emissions calculation methodology, an EPD database, and guidelines for estimating emissions in data gaps. Seamless integration into the building information model (BIM) tool Revit, allows MEP designers to access real-time emissions data and engage in iterative design for reduced carbon footprint. Testing of the framework on a building in the design-stage indicates that emissions from replacement of components can constitute up to 50% of total material emissions for MP during the calculation period, that the emissions from MP can be in the order of 8-20 % of the total emissions from material use in a new office building and that ventilation, heating and fire suppression constitute the largest contribution to the total. Optimization of MP-solutions appears to offer substantial emission reduction.

Simulating and predicting the development trends of the water–energy–food–ecology system in Henan Province, China

The intricate interplay among water, energy, food, and ecology underscores the paramount importance of investigating water–energy–food–ecology (WEFE) systems to foster regional sustainable development. In this study, a dynamic simulation model for the WEFE system was formulated using system dynamics, probing alterations in resource supply, demand dynamics, and ecosystem responses to resource shifts. Utilizing Henan Province as a case study and factoring in resource scarcity and environmental pollution, five scenarios were crafted to forecast WEFE system developmental trajectories from 2005 to 2035. The findings revealed the following key insights: (1) Within each subsystem, the food supply–demand balance ratio maintained a robust level of approximately 4.0. Conversely, the water and energy supply–demand balance ratio remained below 1.0 throughout the study period, indicating a worsening trend in the annual misalignment between supply and demand. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to surge by 103%, posing challenges for future CO2 emission reduction efforts. (2) Among the various scenarios, the Green Development (GD) scenario emerged as pivotal for fostering a coordinated development of the WEFE system. Implementation of the GD scenario showcased a notable 38.1% improvement in the resource supply–demand ratio and a 26% reduction in CO2 emissions. (3) Addressing ecosystem feedback, the reduction of carbon emissions emerges as a focal point for future ecological environment enhancement initiatives in Henan Province. Strategic emphasis should be placed on adjusting energy consumption and its structure to propel the healthy development of the ecological environment. This study serves as a guide for managing regional WEFE systems effectively.

Enacting biochar as a climate solution in Denmark

Following the Paris Agreement’s climate targets and the modelling community’s scenarios of how to reach them, carbon dioxide removal is gaining increasing importance in national climate policies. This is also the case in Denmark – considered by itself and others a climate frontrunner – where biochar is envisioned to cover 10% of the 2030 reduction goal. However, apart from research experiments and test sites, biochar is at the time of research not employed in Denmark, raising the question how it came to constitute a large part of the national goal. This paper explores how biochar, as a method for carbon removal, comes into being as a relevant solution in Danish climate policy, and what this means for emission reduction efforts. Through document analysis, participatory observation, field visits and semi-structured interviews, I employ the framework of the dramaturgical regime and analyse how biochar is enacted as a climate solution through policy documents, conferences, media and network meetings. Here the concept of enactment indicates that different people’s actions are not overtly coordinated, and the effects of such actions are not necessarily fully intentional, but they are nevertheless political. I argue that through different scientific, administrative, political, and media practices, biochar is enacted as a viable climate solution that enables the continuation of current forms of production and consumption. As biochar likely substitutes for emission reductions and is in risk of failing to deliver the anticipated amount of carbon removals, the enactment of biochar as a climate solution in Danish climate policy possibly constitutes a case of mitigation deterrence.

Decreasing Production and Potential Urban Explosion of Nighttime Nitrate Radicals amid Emission Reduction Efforts.

Nighttime oxidation by nitrate (NO3) radicals has important ramifications on nocturnal aerosol formation and hence the climate and human health. Nitrate radicals are produced by the reaction of NO2 and O3. Despite large decreases in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), a previous study found significant increases in NO3 production (PNO3) from 2014 to 2019 in China, in contrast to decreasing trends in the U.S. and Europe. Using the summer observations from 2014 to 2022, we analyze the interannual variability of nocturnal PNO3 using a systematic framework, in which PNO3 is diagnosed as a function of odd oxygen (Ox = O3 + NO2) and the NO2/O3 ratio. We did not find an increase of PNO3 from 2014 to 2022 in China due to a continuous decrease in the NO2/O3 ratio, although PNO3 is modulated by the variation in Ox. Using in situ observations obtained in Beijing in 2007, we demonstrate the potential for an upsurge resembling an "explosion" in urban nighttime NO3 radicals amid emission reduction efforts.

Emissions reduction strategy in a three-stage agrifood value chain: A dynamic differential game approach

Agrifood systems account for 31% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Substantial emissions reduction in agrifood systems is critical to achieving the temperature goal set by the Paris Agreement. A key challenge in reducing GHG emissions in the agrifood value chain is the imbalanced allocation of benefits and costs associated with emissions reduction among agrifood value chain participants. However, only a few studies have examined agrifood emissions reduction from a value chain perspective, especially using dynamic methods to investigate participants’ long-term emissions reduction strategies. This paper helps fill this gap in the existing literature by examining the impact of collaborations among agrifood value chain participants on correcting those misallocations and reducing emissions in agrifood systems. We develop a dynamic differential game model to examine participants’ long-term emissions reduction strategies in a three-stage agrifood value chain. We use the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation to derive the Nash equilibrium emissions reduction strategies under non-cooperative, cost-sharing, and cooperative mechanisms. We then conduct numerical analysis and sensitivity analysis to validate our model. Our results show that collaboration among value chain participants leads to higher emissions reduction efforts and profits for the entire value chain. Specifically, based on our numerical results, the cooperative mechanism results in the greatest emissions reduction effort by the three participants, which leads to a total that is nearly three times higher than that of the non-cooperative mechanism and close to two times higher than the cost-sharing mechanism. The cooperative mechanism also recorded the highest profits for the entire value chain, surpassing the non-cooperative and cost-sharing mechanisms by around 37% and 16%, respectively. Our results provide valuable insights for policymakers and agrifood industry stakeholders to develop strategies and policies encouraging emissions reduction collaborations in the agrifood value chain and reduce emissions in the agrifood systems.

Research on fiscal policies supporting green and low-carbon transition to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in cities: Empirical evidence from China

Cities have emerged as critical and challenging places for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society in the context of the “dual carbon” targets. Meanwhile, fiscal policy is also an indispensable component of the public policy framework supporting the green and low-carbon transformation. This paper uses the pilot project of “Comprehensive Demonstration Cities for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policies” (“ECER-CD” policy) implemented in China since 2011 as a quasi-natural experiment. This research theoretically analyzes and empirically tests the energy conservation and emission reduction effects of fiscal policies supporting green and low-carbon transformation utilizing methodologies such as time-varying DID and multiple periods and multiple groups of DID. The study finds that the pilot cities effectively reverse the behavioural bias of local governments and promote energy conservation and emission reduction efforts. This conclusion holds after undergoing robustness tests such as parallel trend analysis and heterogeneity treatment effects. The effectiveness of the pilot policy is attributed to the upgrade of industrial structure, improvement of energy efficiency, and the effects of green technology innovation. However, cities’ geographic location and resource dependency can interfere with the effective implementation of policies. This paper also further explores the environmental dividends and economic consequences of the policy and finds that the pilot cities have certain environmental dividends and do not significantly restrain economic and social development. This study broadens the research perspective on fiscal policies in energy conservation and emission reduction and clarifies the pathways through which fiscal policies promoting green, low-carbon transformation drive energy conservation and emission reduction in cities. Moreover, it also improves the use of the Difference-in-Differences method in evaluating policy effects in scenarios such as the overlapping implementation of pilot policies and policy withdrawal. Finally, this paper proposes policy recommendations to provide more empirical evidence for China to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society.

Optimizing the emission control policies and trade-in program effects: A carbon-constrained closed-loop supply chain network model

Economic development and human activities affect the natural environment severely. The government has promogulated several policies such as carbon caps and trading scheme, government subsidies, and green credit to control emissions. Accordingly, enterprises should profit on the premise of undertaking social responsibilities, green technology and trade-in programs are two ways to benefit the environment. However, the interaction between regulations and emission abatement measures is largely unknown. A carbon-constrained closed-loop supply chain network model is proposed to discuss the joint effect of the policies and operational measures. The model is constructed under two scenarios, i.e., Manufacturer-led mode and Retailer-led mode. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to compare the scenarios. The results show that although the retailer-led mode promotes resource recovery and supply chain performance, it weakens manufacturers’ profit. We find that the carbon caps and trading scheme is effective in emission reduction when the initial carbon quota is relatively less, which indicates the importance of carbon caps allocation method. The government subsidies stimulate green manufacturers to do more emission reduction efforts enhancing sustainability. The subsidy on green products has more obvious effect on coordinating economic and environmental targets. We also reveal environmental awareness positively affects the emission abatement level. Finally, we extend our models to two special cases with (i) generalization of customers and (ii) different production cost function forms. The main conclusions remain valid in the special cases. The theoretically derived conclusions contribute to the operational research literature and will guide policymakers and enterprises in the manufacturing industry.

Carbon dioxide removal and mitigation deterrence in EU climate policy: Towards a research approach

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are rapidly evolving from renderings in climate models towards an explicit and essential component of climate policy-making. This has raised concerns that the expectations of future large-scale availability of CDR technologies may deter mitigation, i.e., delay or substitute emission reduction efforts. Here, we develop a conceptual approach to systematically study such mitigation deterrence effects in climate policy-making processes. The approach integrates literature on sociotechnical imaginaries and the cultural political economy of mitigation deterrence with historical-materialist policy analysis. It follows within-case process tracing to uncover whether and how expectations of CDR technologies either weaken ‘conventional’ mitigation targets in policy formulation or encourage policy designs which treat ‘conventional’ mitigation and CDR as equivalent. Using critical instances of contestation in the policy process, this approach also allows us to identify nascent constellations of actors and interests as well as emerging fault lines related to CDR technologies. Empirically, the paper focusses on the EU Sustainable Carbon Cycles Strategy and the current negotiations over an EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework. We show that even though it is too early to pin-point clear-cut instances of mitigation deterrence related to CDR technologies in EU climate policy-making, critical opportunities to prevent such effects have already been missed in both climate target formulation and policy design.

Comparative life cycle greenhouse gas analysis of clean hydrogen pathways: Assessing domestic production and overseas import in South Korea

The development of a Clean Hydrogen Standard based on life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is gaining prominence on the international agenda. Thus, a framework for assessing life-cycle GHG emissions for clean hydrogen pathways is necessary. In this study, the comprehensive datasets and effects of various scenarios encompassing hydrogen production, carriers (liquid hydrogen, ammonia, methylcyclohexane), carbon capture and storage (CCS), target analysis year (2021, 2030) to reflect trends of greening grid electricity and potential import countries on aggregated life-cycle GHG emissions were presented. South Korea was chosen as a case study region, and the low-carbon alternatives were suggested for reducing aggregated emissions to meet the Korean standard (5 kgCO2e/kgH2). First, capturing and storing nearly entire (>90%) CO2 from fossil- and waste-based production pathways is deemed essential. Second, when repurposing the use of hydrogen that was otherwise used internally, applying a penalty for substitution is appropriate, leading to results notably exceeding the standard. Third, for electrolysis-based hydrogen, using renewable or nuclear electricity is essential. Lastly, when hydrogen is imported, in a well-to-point-of-delivery (WtP) perspective, using renewable electricity during hydrogen conversion into a carrier and reusing the produced hydrogen for endothermic reconversion reaction are recommended. By implementing the developed calculation framework to other countries' cases, it was observed that importing hydrogen to regions having scope of WtP or above (e.g., well-to-wheel) might not meet the threshold due to additional emissions from importation processes. Additionally, for hydrogen carriers undergoing the endothermic reconversion, the approach to reduce WtP emissions (reusing produced hydrogen) may conflict with the approach to reduce well-to-gate (WtG) emission (using external fossil-based fuel). The discrepancy highlights the need to set a broader scope of emissions assessment to effectively promote the life-cycle emission reduction efforts of hydrogen importers. This study contributes to the field of clean hydrogen GHG emission assessment, offering a robust database and calculation framework while addressing the effects of greening grid electricity and CCS implementation, proposing low-carbon alternatives and GHG assessment scope to achieve global GHG reduction.

Assessing the contaminant reduction effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in China

This paper presents a comprehensive system for assessing contaminant emissions, including the dominant contaminant reduction effects, recessive contaminant reduction effects, and contaminant reduction efficiency indexes. The system is used to evaluate the linkage changes in contaminant emissions reduction across different sectors, the ease of regulation, and the returns on emissions reduction efforts. The study's results demonstrate that firstly, COVID-19 initially reduced contaminant emissions across almost all sectors, although this effect waned over time. Secondly, applying conventional regulatory measures to sectors with high reductions in contaminant emissions may not yield the expected results. Thirdly, while some sectors may be more difficult to regulate, they may offer a higher return on investment in terms of emissions reduction. Based on the above results, the paper advocates for timely measures to consolidate environmental gains, prevent rebounding of contaminant emissions, prioritize supervision and management of easily regulated sectors, prioritize upgrading of cleaner production in sectors with high reduction efficiency indices, and increase investment in environmental technology.

Transformational insurance and green credit incentive policies as financial mechanisms for green energy transitions and low-carbon economic development

This study examines the critical role of green technology innovation in facilitating green and low-carbon economic development. It underscores the necessity of financial backing via green finance policies to address financing and risk challenges associated with such an energy transition. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, inclusive of the banking and insurance sectors, is constructed to proffer transformational insurance and green credit services to energy producers. Key findings include a decrease in deductibles, improved insurance coverage, enhanced green output, and an advancement of green and low-carbon economic growth. Transformational insurance is found to temper the negative impacts of unexpected risk shocks on overall output and employment. Moreover, green credit incentives not only curb carbon emissions but also heighten the likelihood of energy transition among producers, thereby fostering low-carbon economy growth. The combined application of transformational insurance and green credit incentive policy proves more effective in propelling energy transition and green economic growth than the deployment of either policy in isolation. The research concludes with a call for the government to strike a balance in carbon emission reduction efforts to avoid decelerating the overall output and consumption growth rates, thereby ensuring the sustainability of green and low-carbon economic development.

Historical emission and reduction of VOCs from the petroleum refining industry and their potential for secondary pollution formation in Guangdong, China

China became the world leader in crude oil processing capacity in 2021. However, petroleum refining generates significant volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, and the composite source profile, source-specific emission factors, and emission inventories of VOCs in the petroleum refining industry remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on Guangdong, China's major province for crude oil processing, and systematically evaluated the historical emissions and reduction of VOCs in the petroleum refining industry from 2001 to 2020. We accomplished this by establishing local source-specific emission factors and composite source profiles. Finally, we quantitatively assessed the potential impact of these emissions on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. Our results revealed that VOC emissions from the petroleum refining industry in Guangdong followed an increasing-then-decreasing trend from 2001 to 2020, peaking at 37.3 Gg in 2016 and declining to 18.7 Gg in 2020. Storage tanks and wastewater collection and treatment remained the two largest sources, accounting for 41.9 %–53.4 % and 20.6 %–27.5 % of total emissions, respectively. Initially, Guangzhou and Maoming made the most significant contributions, with Huizhou becoming a notable contributor after 2008. Emission reduction efforts for VOCs in Guangdong's petroleum refining industry began showing results in 2017, with an average annual VOC emission reduction of 21.5 Gg from 2017 to 2020 compared to the unabated scenario. Storage tanks, wastewater collection and treatment, and loading operations were the primary sources of emission reduction, with significant contributions from Maoming, Huizhou, and Guangzhou. Alkanes made the largest contribution to VOC emissions, while alkenes/alkynes and aromatics comprised the most significant portions of ozone formation potential (OFP) and secondary organic aerosol formation potential (SOAP). We also estimated VOC emissions and reduction from petroleum refining for China from 2001 to 2020, and measures such as “one enterprise, one policy” and deep control strategies could reduce emissions by at least 103.9 Gg.

Decarbonizing aviation: The roles of sustainable aviation fuels and hydrogen fuel

As the aviation sector is projected to continue growing in the coming decades, so too are its greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts. Improvements to the efficiency of jet fuel-powered airplanes have dominated past emissions reduction efforts, but increasingly diminishing efficiency improvements now motivate the transition to alternative fuels. This article reviews two major classes of such fuels. Sustainable aviation fuels encompass a broad array of drop-in fuels with operational similarities to traditional jet fuel that show promise as a short-term solution. Hydrogen fuel shows promise as a long-term, carbon-free fuel, requiring more technology development and infrastructure changes. This article also presents an overview of the policy actions undertaken to aid both immediate and future deployment of these alternative fuels toward decarbonizing aviation.

Quantifying Damages to Soil Health and Emissions from Land Development in the State of Illinois (USA)

The concept of soil health is increasingly being used as an indicator for sustainable soil management and even includes legislative actions. Current applications of soil health often lack geospatial and monetary analyses of damages (e.g., land development), which can degrade soil health through loss of carbon (C) and productive soils. This study aims to evaluate the damages to soil health (e.g., soil C, the primary soil health indicator) attributed to land developments within the state of Illinois (IL) in the United States of America (USA). All land developments in IL can be associated with damages to soil health, with 13,361.0 km2 developed, resulting in midpoint losses of 2.5 × 1011 of total soil carbon (TSC) and a midpoint social cost of carbon dioxide emissions (SC-CO2) of $41.8B (where B = billion = 109, USD). More recently developed land area (721.8 km2) between 2001 and 2016 likely caused the midpoint loss of 1.6 × 1010 kg of TSC and a corresponding midpoint of $2.7B in SC-CO2. New developments occurred adjacent to current urban areas near the capital cities of Springfield, Chicago, and St. Louis (the border city between the states of Missouri and IL). Results of this study reveal several types of damage to soil health from developments: soil C loss, associated “realized” soil C social costs (SC-CO2), and loss of soil C sequestration potential from developments. The innovation of this study has several aspects. Geospatial analysis of land cover combined with corresponding soil types can identify changes in the soil health continuum at the landscape level. Because soil C is a primary soil health indicator, land conversions caused by developments reduce soil health and the availability of productive soils for agriculture, forestry, and C sequestration. Current IL soil health legislation can benefit from this landscape level data on soil C loss with GHG emissions and associated SC-CO2 costs by providing insight into the soil health continuum and its dynamics. These techniques and data can also be used to expand IL’s GHG emissions reduction efforts from being solely focused on the energy sector to include soil-based emissions from developments. Current soil health legislation does not recognize that soil’s health is harmed by disturbance from land developments and that this disturbance results in GHG emissions. Soil health programs could be broadened to encourage less disturbance of soil types that release high levels of GHG and set binding targets based on losses in the soil health continuum.

A novel methodology for public management of annual greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union

Global warming and climate change, as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, pose a major threat to the international community; therefore, such emissions must be reduced by moving to clean energy resources. In this paper, we follow an approach based on bankruptcy models using the proportional rule and the proportional run-to-the-bank rule to illustrate a novel allocation protocol for managing annual CO2 equivalent emissions in European Union countries among a set of sectors included in Annex I to Decision No 406/2009/EC. Unlike the standard bankruptcy model, the current model deals with situations in which agent’s claims are multi-dimensional and the issues correspond to greenhouse gases contained in Annex II to Directive 2003/87/EC. Considering that any Member State can limit the greenhouse gas emissions beyond their obligations under the European legislation, being able to establish national greenhouse gas emission reduction objectives in relation to 2005. Two types of situations will be considered to allocate emissions among greenhouse gases, sectors and source categories: when total emissions and removals from activities related to the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry are excluded, we will make a first allocation among sectors and categories to determine the amount of tonnes of CO2 equivalent that they can emit for each greenhouse gas; and when land-use/forestry activities are taken into account for the distribution of emissions reduction efforts, we will make a second allocation among sectors in order to determine which source categories are involved in each case.

What kind of fiscal policies and natural resources efficiency promotes green economic growth? Evidence from regression analysis

The promotion of green economic development and sustainability has received increasing attention throughout the world in recent years. Regarding global emission reduction efforts, China plays a pivotal role as one of the world's biggest economies and a significant player. Using the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model, analyzes how government spending and natural resource efficiency have affected green economic development in China from 1990 to 2020. We conduct a regression study to understand better how fiscal policy measures and indices of natural resource efficiency might work together to foster environmentally responsible economic development. The findings show that green economic development is significantly correlated with key interventions in fiscal policy and natural resource efficiency measures. These results light the efficacy of certain fiscal policies and resource management practices in promoting sustainable development and mitigating the environmental impact of economic activities in China.

Does cost of debt reflect the value of quality greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts and disclosure?

Using a sample of North American companies reporting to the CDP (formerly Carbon Disclosure Project), we investigate whether details of companies’ carbon management practices reduce the cost of debt associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with credit risk ratings as a proxy for cost of debt. Specifically, employing structural equation modeling (SEM) for the main analysis and three-stage least squares (3SLS) regression for further in-depth analysis, we simultaneously, yet separately, study the effect of detailed GHG emissions performance and assured GHG emissions disclosure on the cost of debt. Based on the theory of voluntary disclosure, our findings suggest that providing details about the implementation of many diverse GHG emissions reduction projects and assuring GHG emissions disclosure provides integrity to carbon management practices and, therefore, decreases cost of debt. Furthermore, we find that a reduced cost of debt assists companies to invest more in GHG reduction related projects. We recommend that further research considers aspects of voluntary disclosure that add to its integrity.

Climate change through the essentials–nature's offering and humankind's sine qua non

Climate change is decomposed into the driving terms allowing long-term projection of the natural and economic impacts. As a result, in the case of carbon emissions reduction by 2% per year from the present, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to return to preindustrial values in about 1,000 years, temperature and sea level rise to approximately peak at 1°C and 5 m above the present levels by then, and the entailed economic burden to grow to 1.4% of the current global gross domestic product. Ninety percent of the required emissions reduction are anticipated achievable through cost neutrality. To take advantage of the potentially bearable impact, humankind is obliged to fulfill certain prerequisites near-time: (i) CO2 emissions reduction must be at least 2%/year at global level; (ii) economic growth may not continue to jeopardize emissions reduction efforts, thus far contributing with an emissions rise of 1.7%/year; (iii) due to the economic interlinkage, global coherence of regulatory measures must be established, proposedly commencing with a sizable group of countries, the rules comprising economic penalization of non-participants. The presented insight is associated with the potential to alter the social decision mode.

Potential side effects of climate change mitigation on poverty and countermeasures

Many countries have set ambitious long-term emissions reduction targets for reaching the goal in alignment with the Paris Agreement. However, large-scale emission reduction efforts may influence poverty by various economic channels. Here, we show the extent to which climate change mitigation, excluding climate change impacts, has the potential to increase poverty, and have identified its factors such as income, price changes, and direct and indirect carbon pricing impacts. We found that the global poverty headcount could increase by 69 million (19%) in 2030 relative to the baseline for climate change mitigation with global uniform carbon prices. Moreover, our decomposition analysis revealed that both price and income change effects were major factors that could increase the poverty headcount, which are 55% and 40%, respectively. This adverse side effect could be mitigated by various measures, such as emission regulations and an enhancement of energy efficiency standards beyond the typical simple carbon tax. Our results imply that global climate change mitigation policy should place more attention on economic development in poor countries.

Carbon Peak Scenario Simulation of Manufacturing Carbon Emissions in Northeast China: Perspective of Structure Optimization

The manufacturing industry is the pillar industry of China’s economy and a major carbon emitter, and its carbon emission reduction efforts directly determine whether the country’s carbon emission reduction target can be successfully met. In the context of the goals of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy, we examine the impact of manufacturing structure optimization on carbon emissions from 2003 to 2020 through a spatial econometric model, taking the old industrial centers in Northeast China as an example. We then apply a machine learning model to simulate manufacturing carbon emissions during the carbon peak stage and identify the optimal path for carbon emission reduction, which is important for promoting manufacturing carbon emission reduction in Northeast China. Since the goal of low-carbon economic development has gradually replaced the goal of maximizing economic efficiency in recent years, manufacturing structure optimization has come to focus on energy saving and emission reduction. Therefore, we define manufacturing structure optimization from the dual perspective of technology and energy consumption to broaden the existing research perspective. The results show the following: (1) The overall trend in manufacturing structure optimization in Northeast China is steadily improving, and the level of manufacturing structure optimization from the technology perspective is higher than that from the energy consumption perspective. (2) Manufacturing structure optimization and manufacturing carbon emissions in Northeast China both show a positive spatial correlation. Manufacturing structure optimization in Northeast China can effectively promote carbon emission reduction, and it also has a spatial spillover effect. (3) The carbon emission reduction effect of manufacturing structure optimization from the energy consumption perspective is better than that from the technology perspective, and the carbon emission reduction effect under the institutional innovation scenario is better than that under the baseline scenario and the technological innovation scenario. Focusing on manufacturing structure optimization from both technology and energy consumption perspectives, as well as continuously improving technological innovation and institutional innovation, can help to achieve manufacturing carbon emission reduction in Northeast China.