Emergency Response Activities Research Articles

SOARCA uncertainty analysis of a short-term station blackout accident at the Sequoyah nuclear power plant

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the state-of-the-art reactor consequence analyses (SOARCA) project to develop realistic estimates of the offsite radiological health consequences for potential severe reactor accidents. The SOARCA analysis of an ice condenser containment plant was performed because its relatively low design pressure and its reliance on igniters make it potentially susceptible to early containment failure from hydrogen combustion during a severe accident. The focus was on station blackout accident scenarios where all alternating current power is lost. Accident progression calculations used the MELCOR computer code and offsite consequence analyses were performed with MACCS. The analysis included more than 500 MELCOR and MACCS simulations to account for uncertainty in important accident progression and offsite consequence input parameters.Consequences from severe nuclear power plant accidents modeled in SOARCA are smaller than previously calculated. The delayed releases calculated provide more time for emergency response actions. The results show that early containment failure is very unlikely, even without successful use of igniters. The modeled behavior of safety valves is very important to this conclusion, but there is sparse data and a lack of established expert consensus on the failure rates under severe accident conditions. Even for scenarios resulting in early containment failure, the calculated individual latent fatal cancer risks are very small. Early and latent-cancer fatality risks are one focus of this paper. Regression results showing the most influential parameters are also discussed.

The “PSIMT” model for emergency supplies process management: A case study of Shanghai Chemical Industry Park

AbstractAfter the emergency occurred, emergency supplies are an important guarantee for the emergency response activities in chemical park. Rapid procurement and rational transfer of emergency supplies are the key to improve the efficiency of emergency response. Based on the construction needs and development trends of the “smart park” concept, an integrated process of emergency supplies management is proposed in this article. It covers all aspects of emergency supply, such as procurement, storage, inspection, maintenance, and transshipment. Meanwhile, taking Shanghai Chemical Industry Park (SCIP) as a case, an Emergency Supply Reserve Management System (ESRMS) is puts forward according to the current management model of the park. In order to realize dynamic management, maintenance, procurement, transshipment, and other functions the software platform is developed. According to the research results, the role of supplies in emergency response activities was systematically expounded, which strengthened the central position of Emergency Response Center (ERC) of chemical park. It can provide some reference for the management of similar chemical parks.

Автоматизация работы штаба по ликвидации чрезвычайной ситуации на объектах магистрального трубопровода

The efficiency of actions of emergency response personnel at major pipeline facilities is a key factor in minimizing accident consequences. In this paper the authors analyze command post exercises aimed at preparing for emergency responses (oil and petroleum products spill) with personnel working at Transneft enterprises. Shortcomings in organizing the operation of emergency response management groups have been identified. The main ones are as follows: lack of proper interaction and the necessary concurrence of actions of management group representatives; no algorithm for preparing reports and hence the failure to meet deadlines for submitting such reports to regulatory authorities. To some extent, these deficiencies have been minimized through the development and implementation of emergency reporting logs in routine practices of management groups. However, many processes have still been highly dependent on the human factor leading to errors, and the emergence and spread of false and contradictory information in the course of emergency response activities. An appropriate automated information system has been designed in order to minimize the effect of the human factor in organizing the work of emergency response management groups. The article presents its model, describing the algorithm of its operation and functionality. The system was introduced into production at Transneft Far East, LLC and was highly effective in terms of quality of document processing, optimizing time spent on report completion and submission, organizing data retrieval, and monitoring emergency response actions. The application of the developed information system has significantly reduced the number of demerits related to organizing the work of emergency response management groups. The system is unique in Russia: it can be used in real-life emergencies or for training personnel to act using the system’s training mode.

Surface Drift and Dispersion in a Multiply Connected Fjord System

AbstractThe deployment of 206 surface drifters over 3 years in a fjord system in northern British Columbia allows examination of drift and dispersion in complex coastal regions on time scales up to 10 days. The surface drift is found to be seasonally variable, with stronger dispersion and outflows in the spring and fall, and negligible outflow in the summer. Dispersion at time scales less than 10 hr is well described by fractional Brownian motion, where the drifter tracks exhibit fractal characteristics with a dimension of 1.34 over scales of 2 to 13 km. Drifters are found to reach less energetic nearshore regions within 12–15 hr, which slows along‐channel dispersion. The comparison of the drifter statistics (from 2014–2016) with observations of the spatial distribution of oil sheen following an oil spill in 2006 shows that the drifter results provide a reasonable proxy for oil drift in this area. A statistical model for the extent of along‐channel transport of spilled oil is proposed for use in planning emergency response activities in the area.

Prototyping a numerical model coupled with remote sensing for tracking harmful algal blooms in shallow lakes

In this paper, we present the design, development and test cases of LakeM, a software package for modeling the transport pathways of harmful algal blooms in shallow lakes. LakeM integrates implementation of numerical methods and data visualization for the purpose of facilitating the communication between modelers and decision makers. By making use of Finite Difference Method, LakeM is able to numerically solve the Shallow Water Equations on a staggered grid. The core of LakeM consists of two modules, the hydrodynamic and tracer module, which are run separately. The hydrodynamic module simulates the surface level and water movement, and the tracer module simulates the movement of harmful algal blooms subject to advection and dispersion processes. Most of the LakeM programs are developed based on the Python language in an object-oriented fashion, which can be readily adapted to changing requirements. Computationally intensive programs are written in Fortran routines for interoperating with Python. Model validation is performed by comparing model predictions to analytical solutions. Additionally, the capability and effectiveness of LakeM are illustrated by a case study of modeling algal bloom transport in Taihu Lake. The results have shown good agreements with analytical solutions and available remote sensing images. The model is efficient, robust, and can be used to aid environmental managers in developing emergency response actions for HABs. Besides that, the development of LakeM offers a design pattern for future model development efforts in tracking HABs.

Building operational readiness for responding to emergencies in the WHO South-East Asia Region

The World Health Organization (WHO) has an essential role to play in supporting Member States to prepare for, respond to and recover from emergencies with public health consequences. Operational readiness for known and unknown hazards and emergencies requires a risk-informed and structured approach to building capacities within organizations such as WHO offices and national ministries of health. Under the flagship priority programme on emergency risk management of the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia, a readiness training programme consisting of four modules was implemented during 2017-2018, involving staff from WHO country offices as well as from the regional office. The experience of and lessons learnt from designing, developing and delivering this phased training programme have fed into improvements in the curriculum and training methodology. The training programme has also facilitated the development of business continuity plans and contingency plans in some of the 11 Member States of the region and has increased the readiness of WHO staff for swift deployment in recent emergencies. It is recommended that the strengthening of operational readiness for responding to emergencies in the region be sustained and accelerated through the development of a regional training consortium that can scale the training programme up at national level, taking into account country contexts, national health systems and the needs of populations. The resilience of the populations and health systems in the region will be increased if disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness and response activities are supported by operational readiness.

Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan

In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.

Lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic: sustainability is an indispensable condition of Global Health Security

Abstract Among the possible developments of the Covid-19 pandemic at the international and national levels is the advancement of the Global Health Security (GHS) agenda. On the one hand, GHS might be able to give priority to health problems on the political agenda-setting, on the other, however, it might open up space for public security actors in decision-making processes to the detriment of the power of health authorities. This article critically analyzes the concept and the progress of the GHS agenda seeking to demonstrate that there can be no security in matters of public health when sustainability in its multiple dimensions is not taken into account. At the end, sustainability has a twofold responsibility: to maintain the consistency and permanence of emergency response actions, especially with investments in public health systems, with universal access, and to minimize the structural causes of pandemics linked to the environment.

Assessment of in-country capacity to maintain communicable disease surveillance and response services after polio eradication—Somalia

One objective of the 2013–2018 Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan was the transition of GPEI polio essential functions to other public health programs [1]. For many developing countries, in addition to polio essential functions, GPEI funding has been supporting integrated communicable disease surveillance and routine immunization programs. As GPEI progresses toward polio eradication, GPEI funding for some polio-free countries is being scaled back. The Somalia Polio Eradication Program, led by international organizations in collaboration with local authorities, is a critical source of immunizations for >2.5 million children. In addition, the polio program has been supporting a range of communicable disease surveillance, basic health services (e.g. routine immunizations) as well as emergency response activities (e.g. outbreak response). To assess current capacities in Somalia, interviews were conducted with representatives of relief organizations and ministries of health (MoHs) from Somaliland, Puntland, and South-Central political zones to elicit their opinions on their agency’s capacity to assume public health activities currently supported by GPEI funds. Seventy percent of international and 62% of representatives of domestic relief agencies reported low capacity to conduct communicable disease surveillance without GPEI funds. Responses from MoH representatives for the three zones in Somalia ranged from “very weak” to “strong” regarding capacity to conduct both polio and non-polio related communicable disease surveillance and outbreak response activities. Zones programs are unprepared to provide communicable diseases services if GPEI funding were substantially reduced abruptly. Polio transition planning must strategically plan for shifting of GPEI staffing, operational assets and funding to support identified gaps in Somalia’s public health infrastructure.

Analysis of urban flood prevention emergency plan in Pinghu City

With the acceleration of urbanization in China, urban flood disasters have gradually become a prominent type of urban disease, seriously affected the normal production and life of urban residents, and brought great challenges to urban flood control and disaster reduction work. Based on the current situation of urban flood control in Pinghu City and the latest Guidelines for the Compilation of Urban Flood Control Emergency Preparedness Plan, this paper analyses the scope of application, key defense objects and key points of urban flood control in Pinghu City, and puts forward the organizational system and responsibilities of urban flood control, preventive and early warning measures, emergency response actions, public defense guidelines, personnel transfer and placement, etc. Specific non-engineering measures for urban flood control are put forward for Pinghu City.

Shelter-in-place risk assessment for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide and its application in emergency management

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on “as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)” guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.

Purpose-Driven Risk Assessment.

Chemical exposures are routine; some are controlled, some are not. Whether an exposure should be controlled depends on the acceptability of the consequences of controlling or not controlling the exposure. The federal government has the responsibility to protect human health against the harmful effects of chemical exposure, and uses rather conservative policies and procedures to develop regulatory exposure standards. These protective risk values typically do not inform the likelihood of harm or the type of harm that should be anticipated if regulated exposure standards are exceeded. Exposure guideline values are not regulatory and not enforceable. Their purpose is to predict the types and severity of responses with respect to the exposure. These values may be called "predictive," perhaps primarily because of the decreased level of conservatism based directly on their need to provide information on the likelihood of harm and the type of harm that should be anticipated when exposures are uncontrolled. If an emergency response action is required, the intensity of that response should be aligned with the anticipated impact of the exposure on human health and safety. The applicability of risk values for specific exposure scenarios should be selected based on the purpose for which they were developed.

A conceptual framework for illustrating and assessing risk, resilience, and investment in evacuation transportation systems

Evacuations, a critical and widely used emergency response action, vary widely in terms of their scale, scope, urgency and level of organization. While they differ from event to event, history shows that there are a small set of variables, inherent to all evacuations, that largely govern their effectiveness. In this paper, these fundamental variables are described from a theoretical perspective to illustrate how factors of evacuation demand and supply affect clearance time and how they can also be used to relate evacuation planning to concepts of risk, resiliency, and resource allocation. This work provides a basis for a general theory of evacuation processes that can be used it to conceptualize relationships like cost-benefit tradeoffs in evacuation management to improve long-range evacuation planning through a better understanding of the investment and allocation of resources.

CAPACITY BUILDING FOR GEO-INFORMATION DRIVEN EMERGENCY RESPONSE IN CHINA

Abstract. Surveying and mapping technologies played a significant role in former emergency response activities. Despite remarkable progress on emergency surveying and mapping has been achieved in China, there are still some limits to meet the quick and smart response requirements. Aiming to fill the gaps, Chinese government has proposed a capacity building project for geo-information driven emergency response. In this paper, the business process and data flow of emergency surveying and mapping are analysed firstly. Then, the major design of this project is introduced through 4 parts. These are capacity of UAV aerial photography, capacity of field surveying, capacity of smart service and capacity of data integration. Finally, the preliminary progress and prospective achievement are discussed. The implementation of this project could be an example for comprehensive application of advanced surveying and mapping technologies, and could also be a basis to improve our national emergency response framework.

On the driving forces of historical changes in the fatalities of tropical cyclone disasters in China from 1951 to 2014

Tropical cyclone (TC) disasters have frequently caused casualties in the coastal areas of China. According to the statistics of dead and missing people due to TCs from 1951 to 2014, the number of fatalities has been significantly decreasing over time. However, deadly TC events have still caused great losses of life in recent years, which are characterized as significant abrupt fluctuations superimposed along the downward trend of the long-term fatality time series. The numbers of fatalities caused by TC disasters are influenced by variables such as the intensity of TC hazards, the population exposed to TCs and the vulnerability of people to TC hazards. It is thus of great significance to analyze their temporal characteristics and understand the forces driving these changes. First, the time series of the TC wind, precipitation, spatial distribution of population, fatality and disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures of China from 1951 to 2014 are reconstructed. Second, the improved power dissipation index, total precipitation, integrated intensity and index of exposed population are calculated, and the population vulnerability indices, including mean and relative fatality rates, are derived. Third, the change trend of each index is detected using the Mann–Kendall test. Finally, the main driving factors of the long-term change trend and fluctuations of the TC fatalities are analyzed by a negative binomial regression model and standard deviation statistics. It is found that the decrease in vulnerability based on the improvement in structural and non-structural measures is the main driving force of the decreases in fatalities over the past six decades. Although the total population and exposure have increased dramatically in the coastal areas of China, their contributions to the increase in the fatality risk were counteracted by the decrease in vulnerability. Abrupt and catastrophic disasters were mostly caused by TCs with hazards of high intensity that surpassed the capacity of structural measures; the lack of forecasting or early warning, as well as improper emergency response actions, may also have triggered the great loss of lives. To reduce the fatalities of future TCs, especially those that may exceed the capacity of structural measures, the enhancement of non-structural measures and the adaptation of resilience strategies should be priorities for future people-centered disaster management.

Variation in landslide-affected area under the control of ground motion and topography

Earthquake-Induced Landslide (EQIL) inventories are the key to improve our understanding of the relationship between landslides and their causes, including environmental settings and ground shaking parameters. However, creating a high-quality inventory can take years. As a result, reliable information on landslide-affected areas typically remains unknown until a complete inventory is compiled. In this paper, we analyze 20 digital EQIL inventories of varying quality and completeness that represent a range of geologic and climatic settings around the globe. We examine the landslide-affected area with respect to Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and topography, and develop a statistical model to estimate the landslide distribution without prior knowledge of the actual landslide triggering locations.For each EQIL inventory, we initially calculated the PGA contours where 90% of the total landslide population fell into. Subsequently, we define landslide susceptible areas as those pixels with slope > 5° and local relief>100 m. The latter is used to normalize the total landslide-affected area and to compute correlations with local PGA values. We find that the landslide-affected area may be predicted from PGA values only, with the mean error ranging from −20.0% to +7.1%, with respect to total landslide population. This relationship can be used immediately following a disaster to identify areas of greatest landslide impact and to prioritize emergency response actions, even without a landslide inventory.

Judicial Opinions Arising from Emergency Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Activities.

Legal Perspectives is aimed at informing healthcare providers, emergency planners, public health practitioners, and other decision makers about important legal issues related to public health and healthcare preparedness and response. The articles describe these potentially challenging topics and conclude with the authors' suggestions for further action. The articles do not provide legal advice. Therefore, those affected by the issues discussed in this column should seek further guidance from legal counsel. Readers may submit topics of interest to the column's editor, Lainie Rutkow, JD, PhD, MPH, at lrutkow@jhu.edu. This article describes and analyzes the body of emergency preparedness, response, and recovery litigation that has arisen since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Search terms were developed to identify judicial opinions related to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities. Using the Thomson Reuters Westlaw legal database, searches were conducted to collect judicial opinions related to disasters that occurred in the United States between September 11, 2001, and December 31, 2015. An electronic form was used for data abstraction. Cases that did not directly involve emergency response, preparedness, or recovery activities were excluded. Data were summarized with descriptive statistics. We identified 215 cases for data abstraction. Many of the cases stemmed from preparedness, response, and recovery activities related to hurricanes (57.7%) and terrorist attacks (16.7%). The most prevalent emergency response activities at issue were disaster mitigation (29.3%), disaster clean-up (21.9%), a defendant's duty to plan (14.4%), evacuation (12.6%), and conditions of incarceration (12.1%). Although it can be anticipated that litigation will arise out of all phases of disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, policymakers can anticipate that the most litigation will result from pre-event mitigation and post-event recovery activities, and allocate resources accordingly.

Linking Emergency Medical Service Data to Death Records for Opioid Mortality Surveillance

Linking Emergency Medical Service Data to Death Records for Opioid Mortality Surveillance

Actantial Narrative Schema in Emergency Response Process Modeling for Aircraft Fires

Analyzing the emergency response process and time characteristics after aircraft fires is extremely important for airport safety. Due to nonprocess-related elements, the Petri net model of the emergency process is generally complex and difficult to revise and expand. In this study, the actantial model was used to analyze the semantic structure of emergency actions in the Petri net emergency process model, and the actantial-timed Petri net (A-TPN) hybrid model was proposed for problem solving. The emergency response process of aircraft fires was analyzed as a case study to explain the application steps of the A-TPN hybrid model. First, the types of elements should be divided into process-related elements and nonprocess-related elements. Process-related elements include status elements and narrative elements, which are equivalent to the places and transitions in the Petri net model. Second, the workflow constructed by the status and narrative elements is converted into a Petri net. An actantial model is used to analyze the semantic structure of emergency response action narratives. Third, according to the analysis of the actants of the helper and the opponent, emergency action time characteristics are considered to construct the A-TPN hybrid model and analyze the time performance of the emergency response process. In this way, an emergency response plan can be analyzed and promoted for smart development.

Disability and disaster risk reduction as an incongruent matrix: Lessons from rural Zimbabwe.

The policy thrust of disaster risk reduction initiatives is in many instances tailored towards able-bodied people. This is at the expense of those challenged in many facets such as physically, mentally and other forms of disability. The suggestion for disability to be mainstreamed into disaster risk reduction initiatives has been made imperative by the late shift in hazard and disaster thinking at local, national and international levels. The increasing intensity and frequency of weather-related hazards and disasters, driven by climate change, has provided fertile ground on which mainstreaming ideas and policies have proved to be incongruent. This research paper focuses on two key topics in the disaster science field: pre-disaster risk reduction planning and post-disaster emergency response activities. It is based on experiences from disaster risk reduction projects in Bulilima and Mangwe districts in southern Zimbabwe between 2006 and 2014. A qualitative research methodology was employed, and data were collected using in-depth personal interviews, observations and focus group discussions. Both able-bodied people and people living with disabilities (PWDs) were part of the study. Main findings show that PWDs were not included in the formulation of disaster risk reduction measures. Other important findings were the variable nature of how people define or view disability, and even believe that disability has a purpose. Most of the so-called normal people lack the understanding of what constitutes a disaster to such an extent that even disability is regarded as a disaster. The paper unravels the need to have a relook that would bring PWDs into the centre of civil protection decision-making and policy formulation in Zimbabwe.Keywords: disability; disaster risk reduction; disaster; vulnerability; Zimbabwe.