Elman Recurrent Neural Network Model Research Articles

Eligibility of village fund direct cash assistance recipients using artificial neural network

<p>Bantuan Langsung Tunai Dana Desa (BLT-DD), or known as Village Fund Direct Cash Assistance is assistance from the Indonesian government which causes problems and conflicts in the community when the assistance is not on target. The classification algorithm is proven to use in determining BLT-DD recipients. In this study, the radial basis function (RBF) and elman recurrent neural network (ERNN) models compare to classify the eligibility of BLTDD recipients. In the experiment, the optimal performance of the RBF and ERNN compare in determining the eligibility of BLT-DD recipients. Also, it’s compared with the classification algorithm that implements the same data, namely BLT-DD data for Kubu Raya District. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the RBF model in recognizing test data, while the ERNN model is effective in identifying test data. The RBF and ERNN models can achieve the same total accuracy of 98.10%.</p>

A Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network for Predicting Higher Heating Value of Biomass.

The higher heating value (HHV) is the main property showing the energy amount of biomass samples. Several linear correlations based on either the proximate or the ultimate analysis have already been proposed for predicting biomass HHV. Since the HHV relationship with the proximate and ultimate analyses is not linear, nonlinear models might be a better alternative. Accordingly, this study employed the Elman recurrent neural network (ENN) to anticipate the HHV of different biomass samples from both the ultimate and proximate compositional analyses as the model inputs. The number of hidden neurons and the training algorithm were determined in such a way that the ENN model showed the highest prediction and generalization accuracy. The single hidden layer ENN with only four nodes, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, was identified as the most accurate model. The proposed ENN exhibited reliable prediction and generalization performance for estimating 532 experimental HHVs with a low mean absolute error of 0.67 and a mean square error of 0.96. In addition, the proposed ENN model provides a ground to clearly understand the dependency of the HHV on the fixed carbon, volatile matter, ash, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur content of biomass feedstocks.

A novel dynamic recurrent functional link neural network-based identification of nonlinear systems using Lyapunov stability analysis

In this paper, a novel dynamic recurrent functional link neural network (DRFLNN) is proposed for the identification of unknown dynamics of the nonlinear systems. The proposed structure contains a self-feedback loop(s) as well as the adjustable weighted feed-through of the input signals to the output neuron(s). A learning algorithm is developed using the combination of Lyapunov stability and dynamic back-propagation method and is applied to derive the stable parameter adjustment equations. The performance evaluation of the proposed DRFLNN model is done by comparing it with the multi-layer perceptron (consisting of a single hidden layer), radial basis function network, Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), nonlinear auto-regressive moving average, and the conventional functional link neural network. Three benchmark systems have been used on which all these models are applied. From the results, it is found that ERNN provided better prediction accuracy as compared to the remaining models and the second-best accuracy is obtained from the proposed model. Further, the ERNN model is more complex and offers more parameters to be tuned as compared to the DRFLNN model. Thus, the training of the ERNN model is quite difficult as compared to the DRFLNN.

Forecasting global crude oil price fluctuation by novel hybrid E-STERNN model and EMCCS assessment

Energy futures are a very significant part of commodity futures, no less than the influence of the spot market. A novel hybrid neural network (denote by E-STERNN) is proposed through combining Elman recurrent neural network model with stochastic time strength (ST-ERNN), and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is also introduced to improve the performance of forecasting neural network system for energy markets. ST-ERNN model is established for taking into account the weight of energy historical data with time variations. EEMD is an algorithm that decomposes any non-stationary and nonlinear time series into simple and independent time sequence. From the empirical research for four global energy market prices, the proposed hybrid E-STERNN model is verified to have higher prediction accuracy compared with the original ERNN and the ST-ERNN models. Moreover, a new error evaluation approach, called the exponent of multi-scale composite complexity synchronization (EMCCS), is utilized to analyze and estimate the prediction performance, and the demonstration analyses confirm that the hybrid E-STERNN model has higher prediction accuracy for global energy futures indexes.

Forecasting deaths of road traffic injuries in China using an artificial neural network

Objectives: This study was conducted to estimate road traffic deaths and to forecast short-term road traffic deaths in China using the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN) model.Methods: An ERNN model was developed using reported police data of road traffic deaths in China from 2000 to 2017. Different numbers of neurons of the hidden layer were tested and different combinations of subgroup datasets have been used to develop the optimal ERNN model after normalization. The mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were measures of the deviation between predicted and observed values. Predicted road traffic deaths from the ERNN model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model were compared using the MAPE.Results: By comparing the MAE, RMSE and MAPE of different numbers of hidden neurons and different ERNN models, the ERNN model provided the best result when the input neurons were set to 3 and hidden neurons were set to 10. The best validated neural model (3:10:1) was further applied to make predictions for the latest 12 months of deaths (MAPE = 4.83). The best SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model was selected from various candidate models (MAPE = 5.04). The fitted road traffic deaths using the two selected models matched closely with the observed deaths from 2000 to 2016. The ERNN models performed better than the SARIMA model in terms of prediction of 2017 deaths.Conclusions: Our results suggest that the ERNN model could be utilized to model and forecast the short-term trends accurately and to evaluate the impact of traffic safety programs when applied to historical road traffic deaths data. Forecasting traffic crash deaths will provide useful information to measure burden of road traffic injuries in China.

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Using the Modified Elman Recurrent Neural Network Optimized Through a Genetic Algorithm

Traffic stream determining is an essential part of the intelligent transportation management system. Precise prediction of traffic flow provides a basis for other tasks, like forecasting travel time. While traditional methods have some merits for improving traffic prediction precision in some ways, high precision, considering different circumstances, is still difficult to achieve. This article presents a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on the Modified Elman Recurrent Neural Network model (GA-MENN) to deal with this practical problem. In GA-MENN, the algorithm of Elman Recurrent Neural Network is modified, optimized through the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and considered weather conditions, weekday, hour and day’s classification to forecast the vehicle velocity in Tehran streets and highways. The traffic data were collected from the online Google Map API service for 139 routs in 7 districts in Tehran. The method improves prediction precision and also lowers the prediction error rate, according to experimental results. Exploratory outcomes verify the superior performance of the proposed traffic condition prediction model over Regression Multi-layer Perceptron, Linear Regression, Logistic Regression, Probabilistic Neural Network, Regression Generalized Feedforward, Time-lag Recurrent Network, Support Vector Machine model, Elman neural network, K- NN model, ARIMA, Kalman filter model, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), SARIMA, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first occasion when that traffic stream is gauged in urban roads and avenues in this specific way.

Prediction of summer rainfall over the source region of the Blue Nile by using teleconnections based on sea surface temperatures

Summer rainfall (June–September) accounts for about 80% of the annual rainfall in the Lake Tana basin of Ethiopia, the source region of the Blue Nile River. Prediction of summer rainfall would be valuable for managing the region’s water resources and agricultural operations. This study investigated the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) as a predictor of summer rainfall in the basin by applying cross-correlation analysis between summer rainfall and climatic indices and SST in various oceanic regions from 1985 to 2015. Summer rainfall showed a strong negative correlation (− 0.619) with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index at short time lags. Further analysis identified strong teleconnections (|r| ≥ 0.5) between SSTs in specific parts of the Pacific Ocean and summer rainfall in the Lake Tana basin, raising the possibility of predicting summer rainfall from Pacific SSTs with a lead time of 4 to 5 months. Average SSTs of an area near the Philippines and an area west of North America were positively correlated (0.629) and negatively correlated (− 0.538), respectively, with summer rainfall in the Lake Tana basin. Predictions of summer rainfall from these teleconnected SSTs by an Elman recurrent neural network model were encouraging, indicating a strong correlation (r > 0.77) between the observed and predicted summer rainfall. Our results suggest that neural network techniques may have sufficient skill to support seasonal rainfall predictions over the Lake Tana basin.

Comparison of ARCH / GARCH model and Elman Recurrent Neural Network on data return of closing price stock

Time series data can be modeled using the Autoregressive Intergrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. ARIMA model requires the assumption of homoscedasticity. But on financial data, like stock data, has a high fluctuation so that the variant is heteroscedastic. To solve this problem, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) or Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is used. The ARCH process introduced in Engle allows the conditional variance to change over time as a function of past errors leaving the unconditional variance constant. The ARCH model was generalized to the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and introduced in Bollerslev allowing for a much more flexible lag structure.Another model that can be used is the Elman Recurrent Neural Network model (ERNN) which is a nonlinear model. The purpose of this research is to determine the best model between ARCH / GARCH model and ERNN model based on MSE value. The data used is the return of daily closing price of BRI stocks period of January 1st, 2015 to 17th February 2017. In this study, the best model obtained is GARCH (1,1) which has the smallest MSE value.

Modelling of lead removal from battery industrial wastewater treatment sludge leachate on cement kiln dust by using Elman's RNN

In this study, an Elman type recurrent neural network (RNN) was employed to develop a prediction model for lead removal from industrial sludge leachate using cement kiln dust. The leaching characteristics of industrial sludge were observed through the toxicity characteristics leaching procedure (TCLP). Dosage, contact time, and temperature were considered as independent experimental factors. A comparison between the model results and experimental data showed that the Elman's RNN model is able to predict lead removal from industrial sludge leachate. The outcomes of suggested Elman's RNN modelling were then compared to batch experimental studies. The results show that industrial sludge leachate using cement kiln dust is an efficient sorbent, and Elman's RNN is dynamic in nature and is able to model the batch experimental system.