Eligible Voters Research Articles

The Groundswell Political Campaign Strategy of Anies-Sandi in the 2017 DKI Jakarta Governor Election

The election of Governor of DKI Jakarta in 2017 has drawn the most public attention nationwide and even international. This research aims to analyze the political campaign strategy of Anis-Sandy in the election of Jakarta's governor and the process of the groundswell. Political campaign and groundswell are the framework concepts of this research. A qualitative research method used is single case study. The data collection is carried out through participant observation, in-depth interview, and documentation. This phenomenal event of election showed us the role and contribution of voters based on their social technographic profiles: creators, conversationalists, critics, collectors, joiners, and spectators. “Viral” and “collaborative concepts” are widely implemented and become the goals of social media political campaign of Anies-Sandi. The groundswell process that effectively affects the behaviour of eligible voters and the success of the 212 social movements has led to the winning of Anies-Sandi won in the election.

Do Surveys Overestimate or Underestimate Socioeconomic Differences in Voter Turnout? Evidence from Administrative Registers

AbstractSurveys generally overestimate the overall level of voter turnout in elections due to both the misreporting of voting and nonresponse. It is sometimes argued that socioeconomic differences in turnout are exaggerated in surveys because social desirability has a more pronounced effect on eligible voters in more advantaged socioeconomic positions. However, the contribution of nonresponse bias has not been taken into consideration in these assessments. Using a register-linked survey with information on the education, occupational social class, income, and voting in the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections of both respondents and nonrespondents, this study shows that nonresponse bias leads to not only a larger overestimation of the overall level of turnout than social desirability, but also an underestimation of educational, social class, and income-related differences in the propensity to vote. Socioeconomic differences in the probability of voting in register-based data were at least two-thirds larger than differences obtained when using standard survey techniques. This finding implies that socioeconomic inequality in electoral participation is a more pressing social problem than previous evidence might indicate.

SIGHPC elections

The nominating committee is presenting the following slate of officers (in alphabetical order) for its 2019 spring election. Eligible voters will be sent an election link no later than 30 April; ballots must be submitted by 14 June. New officers take office 1 July.

Do direct elections matter? Quasi-experimental evidence from Germany

We estimate the causal effect of direct elections on the economic performance of politicians. Candidates running in direct elections to head local governments in the German state of Brandenburg need an absolute majority, and votes for the winner must represent at least 15% of eligible voters. If the quorum is not reached, direct elections are suspended, and local councils appoint the head of government. We examine election outcomes around the quorum, where the form of government is arguably exogenous. Event study results show that the public employment service becomes somewhat more effective under directly elected politicians. However, directly elected politicians do not seem to attract more businesses or expedite administrative acts.

The Elephant in the Room: Intentional Voter Suppression

Since its inception, the Roberts Court has acquiesced in—and at times even abetted—the attempts of many states to make it harder for Americans to vote. Illustrative is a 2018 decision, Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, in which the Court rejected a statutory challenge to a state’s expansive purges of voting lists. In Husted the Court dismissed the threat of voter suppression as simply not “relevant” to the case before it. By declining to look beyond states’ unsupported explanations for voter-suppressive practices, the Court is leaving the right to vote to the vagaries of the political process. It didn’t have to be this way. For half a century, the Court has recognized a constitutional right to vote. This Article sketches a claim that precedent might allow, if only the Court were willing to reconsider its trajectory and acknowledge the reality and constitutional implications of intentional voter suppression. More specifically, we turn to the neglected Equal Protection framework developed by the Supreme Court in the voting-rights context to argue that a state acts unconstitutionally when it acts with the intent of making it less likely that an eligible voter’s ballot will be cast or counted. If accepted, this straightforward principle would require judicial scrutiny of election practices to move beyond talking points, to allow genuine adversarial testing of states’ justifications for restrictive measures.

On the Political Economy of Felon Disenfranchisement

Nearly 6.1 million U.S. citizens are politically disenfranchised because of a prior felony conviction, and these citizens tend disproportionately to be black. Specifically, more than 7.4% of the adult African-American population is disenfranchised compared to 1.8% of other Americans. This paper investigates the political consequences of this large racial disparity in disenfranchisement rates. To obtain the first causal estimates of the effects of felon disenfranchisement (FD), we build a new database that catalogs the annual state changes in disenfranchisement law. We show that these changes are driven by lengthy, uncertain, and complicated court cases which are outside of the control of individual state legislatures. We use a difference in difference strategy to analyze the impact of these changes in felon disenfranchisement laws. Our results suggest that FD legislation is associated with a 3 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of voting, allowing for a range of race-specific effects of demographic and geographic characteristics. This number is larger than would be implied purely by the mechanical effect due to the change in the number of eligible voters suggesting that FD also reduces turnout amongst those eligible to vote. Next, we show that relaxations in FD laws increase the number of Black U.S. Representatives. Finally, we show that relaxations also lead to an increase in state policy liberalism.

Congressional districts: How “equal” are they?

Congressional redistricting is the process of delineating boundaries for districts in which voters elect members to the United States (U.S.) House of Representatives. Currently, state legislative bodies and committees may consider up to eight criteria when determining the boundaries of districts and this paper focuses on one of those criteria, equal population. Congressional districts (CDs) are drawn to provide quality representation for a large population and are often redrawn due to changes in population reflected by the decennial census. The U.S. Supreme Court recently decided that equal population refers to the total population of a state, rather than any subgroups (e.g. registered voters, voting eligible population) but did not dictate that states could not evenly distribute any subgroups as well. This paper discusses how eligible voters may be defined and their distributions in each state for the 113th Congress. States with a large proportion of children or prisoners were expected to have CDs with eligible voting populations deviated from the equal population counts, but the results show that populations of children and prisoners were not significant factors related to the deviations from equal population counts at the state level. However, the changes in population between 2000 and 2010, and the non-citizen and Hispanic populations were strongly and significantly associated with the deviations from the ideals.

A new campaign strategy informed by pragmatism: Running on a platform of expanding voting accessibility

Voter disillusionment is commonplace in the United States, with many eligible voters either choosing not to or altogether unable to exercise their right to vote. To the former, in 2016 alone, nearl...

Compulsory Voting: A Defence

AbstractTurnout is in decline in established democracies around the world. Where, in the mid-1800s, 70–80 percent of eligible voters regularly participated in US Presidential elections, turnout has averaged just 53.7 percent since 1972. Average turnout in general elections in the UK has fallen from 76.6 percent during the period 1945–92, to 64.7 percent since 1997. Average turnout in Canadian federal elections has fallen from 74.5 percent during the period 1940–79, to 62.5 percent since 2000. For most democrats, these numbers are a cause for alarm. Compulsory voting is amongst the most effective means of raising turnout. However, compulsory voting is also controversial. Most of us think that coercion may only be employed against the citizenry if it is backed by a justification of the right kind. Opponents of compulsory voting charge that no such justification is available. This article resists this line of argument in two ways. First, I offer an argument from free-riding which, though gestured towards by others, and widely criticized, has yet to be defended in any depth. Second, I consider a range of objections to compulsory voting as such, arguing that none succeeds.

Assessing Employee Support during Union Organizing Campaigns

Many labor unions assess support among prospective members to guide decision making during organizing campaigns, and to predict voting in representation elections. However, research on the actual practice of how unions make assessments is limited. We fill this void through a study that combined quantitative and qualitative analysis of the assessment activities. The quantitative portion involved a survey of eligible voters in the 2010 flight attendant representation election at Delta Air Lines. The qualitative portion involved in-depth interviews with staff involved in that campaign and organizing directors or key organizing staff in nine of the largest labor unions in the United States. We focus on the factors that influence the accuracy of assessment predictions, describe practices currently being used to predict votes in these campaigns, and discuss future research needs.

Naysaying and negativity promote initial power establishment and leadership endorsement.

Conventional wisdom holds that leaders should behave in a supportive and positive manner. Yet the past decade has also seen a rise in naysayers' ascent to power. This research investigates the intriguing possibility that although we may want our leaders to be cheerleaders, we instead empower naysayers. Integrating theoretical perspectives from psychology, leadership, and organizational theory, I present the Naysaying-Agency-Power-Leadership Efficacy (NAPLE) model, which captures the causal link between naysaying and power, and examine leadership efficacy as a downstream implication. Eleven studies provide empirical support for the model. Ten experimental studies demonstrate that naysaying and power are causally linked through the perception of agency. An additional study analyzed 518 eligible voters' assessments of actual statements from U.S. presidential debates between 1980 and 2008. Results reveal that voters perceived negative and critical presidential candidates as more powerful and, in turn, were more willing to vote for them; this finding was robust to controlling for age, gender, ethnicity, political orientation, and voting history. By systematically establishing that naysaying induces power at the onset, and why, these findings illuminate an unanticipated, yet formidable, determinant of power. (PsycINFO Database Record

Narcissistic Women and Cash-Strapped Men: Who Can Be Encouraged to Consider Running for Political Office, and Who Should Do the Encouraging?

This paper not only considers whether encouragement can be an effective tool for increasing political ambition, but it also asks whether the source of that encouragement matters. That is, are some sources of encouragement more credible and effective than others? In addition, it explores the profiles of those individuals who are most likely to be receptive to recruitment, accounting for factors such as age, gender, income, education, political interest, knowledge, and personality. To answer these questions, we conducted two studies. The first is a survey of eligible voters. We recruited 371 Canadians from a national panel, asking a variety of questions regarding their level of political ambition. Importantly, we uncover distinct profiles for men and women who are most likely to respond positively to encouragement. In the second study, we conducted an online experiment with 443 undergraduate university students. Here, we focus on the question of who is providing the encouragement as we manipulated the gender of the actor providing the encouragement to run for office. We find that women who are encouraged by a male party recruiter are significantly less likely to express interest in a political career than those in our gender-neutral control condition.

Blockchain-Enabled E-Voting

Blockchain-enabled e-voting (BEV) could reduce voter fraud and increase voter access. Eligible voters cast a ballot anonymously using a computer or smartphone. BEV uses an encrypted key and tamper-proof personal IDs. This article highlights some BEV implementations and the approach’s potential benefits and challenges.

Statistical paradises and paradoxes in big data (I): Law of large populations, big data paradox, and the 2016 US presidential election

Statisticians are increasingly posed with thought-provoking and even paradoxical questions, challenging our qualifications for entering the statistical paradises created by Big Data. By developing measures for data quality, this article suggests a framework to address such a question: “Which one should I trust more: a 1% survey with 60% response rate or a self-reported administrative dataset covering 80% of the population?” A 5-element Euler-formula-like identity shows that for any dataset of size $n$, probabilistic or not, the difference between the sample average $\overline{X}_{n}$ and the population average $\overline{X}_{N}$ is the product of three terms: (1) a data quality measure, $\rho_{{R,X}}$, the correlation between $X_{j}$ and the response/recording indicator $R_{j}$; (2) a data quantity measure, $\sqrt{(N-n)/n}$, where $N$ is the population size; and (3) a problem difficulty measure, $\sigma_{X}$, the standard deviation of $X$. This decomposition provides multiple insights: (I) Probabilistic sampling ensures high data quality by controlling $\rho_{{R,X}}$ at the level of $N^{-1/2}$; (II) When we lose this control, the impact of $N$ is no longer canceled by $\rho_{{R,X}}$, leading to a Law of Large Populations (LLP), that is, our estimation error, relative to the benchmarking rate $1/\sqrt{n}$, increases with $\sqrt{N}$; and (III) the “bigness” of such Big Data (for population inferences) should be measured by the relative size $f=n/N$, not the absolute size $n$; (IV) When combining data sources for population inferences, those relatively tiny but higher quality ones should be given far more weights than suggested by their sizes. Estimates obtained from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the 2016 US presidential election suggest a $\rho_{{R,X}}\approx-0.005$ for self-reporting to vote for Donald Trump. Because of LLP, this seemingly minuscule data defect correlation implies that the simple sample proportion of the self-reported voting preference for Trump from $1\%$ of the US eligible voters, that is, $n\approx2\mbox{,}300\mbox{,}000$, has the same mean squared error as the corresponding sample proportion from a genuine simple random sample of size $n\approx400$, a $99.98\%$ reduction of sample size (and hence our confidence). The CCES data demonstrate LLP vividly: on average, the larger the state’s voter populations, the further away the actual Trump vote shares from the usual $95\%$ confidence intervals based on the sample proportions. This should remind us that, without taking data quality into account, population inferences with Big Data are subject to a Big Data Paradox: the more the data, the surer we fool ourselves.

Connecting young adults to democracy via government social network sites

Young adults’ increasing disconnection with public affairs and heavy reliance on social media for political communication suggest a strategic use of social network sites (SNS) by the government to foster relationships with young citizens and to improve their citizenship. However, scholars and practitioners have not reached consensus about the exact influence of individuals’ experience with government SNS. Focusing on young eligible voters, this study proposes and tests a conceptual model that measures the perceptual, relational, and behavioral outcomes of public engagement with government agencies on SNS. Specifically, the findings revealed a positive influence of government SNS engagement on perceived government transparency, perceived political efficacy, and public participation but to varying degrees depending on the government level (e.g., federal, state, and local). This study suggests that there is limited influence of public engagement on the perceived government-citizen relationship quality through SNS. This empirical research demonstrates how a contextualized investigation of public engagement and relationship management provides insights into the role that SNS can play in connecting young adults to democracy.

A novel approach to estimating the demand value of public safety

We present a novel approach for estimating the demand value of public safety and apply it to road safety improvements in Switzerland. Survey responses by more than 1,000 eligible voters to questions about how much public spending on road safety should increase are combined with observations of their income tax and road usage to derive the value of a statistical accident avoided. A risk-risk tradeoff elicitation allows decomposing this value into willingness-to-pay values for various degrees of accident severity. Our most comprehensive estimate of the value per statistical life is CHF 4.2 million (corresponding to $4.5 million or €3.5 million). We explore the sensitivity of the elicitation approach to anchoring and other framing effects and find that our approach is as least as scope sensitive as other stated preference approaches.

What is a fair amount of executive compensation? Outrage potential of two key stakeholder groups

AbstractThe public discussion of executive compensation often centres on ‘fair’ and ‘unfair’ amounts and the public outrage over compensation that is deemed too high. The academic literature states that such outrage can lead to outrage costs, pressuring firms to adjust compensation levels. However, it is unclear what a ‘fair’ compensation is for various stakeholders and how their fairness concerns relate to outrage constraints. Based on surveys among two key stakeholder groups (representative eligible voters and investment professionals), we provide evidence that fairness is an important criterion for both groups but that opinions on how large a fair compensation amount should be are widely dispersed. Moreover, personality traits systematically influence fairness opinions through self‐serving interpretations of distributive justice and personal risk attitudes, indicating that a ‘fair’ amount of executive compensation may strongly depend on the involved stakeholders. Investigating thresholds for outrage, i.e., amounts above which compensation is judged ‘unfairly’ high, we show that even though investment professionals care for fairness as well, ‘capital market outrage’ might not equate to ‘public outrage’. Our paper contributes to the literature on outrage constraints by linking individual fairness concerns to outrage potential and has implications for transparency of executive compensation and research on shareholder activism.

Let’s stop the enemy!

In April 2017, the Hungarian government launched a national consultation entitled ‘Let’s stop Brussels’ focusing on topical issues such as Brussels’ prohibition of reductions in household utility charges; illegal immigration; foreign attempts to influence the domestic political scene; Brussels’ attacks on tax reductions and job creation programmes in Hungary. The present study investigates whether there is any extent of manipulation applied in the questionnaire of the consultation sent to Hungarian eligible voters by using van Dijk’s (2006) triangulated Critical Discourse Analytical (CDA) approach. Van Dijk’s three-layered approach to the investigation of manipulation in discourse is an integrated theory that establishes links between three different dimensions of manipulation: society, cognition and discourse. A CDA framework allows a text to be evaluated as manipulative in terms of its context categories rather than merely in terms of its textual elements. Accordingly, the presence of manipulation in the discourse of the national consultation is explored by examining the balance in its participants and in the information shared; by considering its influence on social cognition; and by revealing the rhetorical techniques applied in the discourse of the set of questions. The results of the study show that various techniques of manipulation were applied in all the three layers of the discourse of the consultation.

Civic Engagement in the Americas

This paper estimates the effect of voting eligibility on civic engagement measured along three dimensions: political motivation, political activities, and political knowledge. These outcomes originate in the AmericasBarometer 2004-2016 surveys of eligible voters. To identify the effects the paper exploits variation in field survey dates relative to election dates, given country-specific voting age laws. It is found that voter enfranchisement increases self-reported interest in politics, political socialization, and attendance of political meetings; however, consumption of political news is not statistically different between eligible and non-eligible citizens. Some evidence indicates that the political activities voters engage in translate into increased political knowledge, in contrast with the view that voters are rationally ignorant. The effects are larger in countries with enforced mandatory voting.

On the independence referendum in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and disputed territories in 2017

On 25th September 2017, the eligible voters of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq were given the opportunity to respond ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the question, posed in Kurdish, Turkmen, Arabic and Assyrian: “Do you want the Kurdistan Region and the Kurdistani areas outside the administration of the Region to become an independent state?” The aim of this note is to give an empirically focussed account of the independence referendum. The note has been written by four members of a delegation which spent one week in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) with the purpose of observing the referendum. The key point that we draw from these observations is that the referendum and associated aspiration for independence, which potentially could have unified the different political factions in the KRI, has in fact cruelly exposed divisions.