Elevated Risk Of Mortality Research Articles

Mortality-related factors in older adults with delirium: A prospective observational study

BackgroundDelirium is a common and serious neuropsychiatric syndrome characterized by acute changes in attention, cognition, and consciousness. It is frequently encountered in various clinical settings, including critical care units and postoperative care, and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Understanding the factors contributing to delirium-related mortality is crucial for improving patient outcomes and healthcare practices. However, the factors associated with mortality in delirium have not been well-defined in the literature. ObjectivesThis study aimed to identify factors influencing 3-month mortality in older adults with delirium presenting to the emergency department (ED). MethodsThe study was conducted prospectively and delirium was screened using the brief Confusion Assesment Method (bCAM). The primary outcome was 3-month mortality. Mann-Whitney U and Chi-square tests compared groups, Spearman correlation analyzed correlations, and multivariate logistic regression identified risk factors. ResultsAmong 243 patients, 29.6% experienced in-hospital mortality, and 56.4% had 3-month mortality. Factors associated with increased mortality risk included prior delirium history (3.32-fold increase, 95%CI: 1.51-7.30), active malignancy (3.49-fold increase, 95%CI: 1.61-7.56) and increased respiratory rate (1.18-fold increase, 95%CI: 1.08-1.29). An increase in mean arterial pressure (MAP) was associated with a 0.98-fold decrease in mortality risk (95%CI: 0.96-0.99), increase in body temperature was associated with a 0.48-fold decrease in mortality risk (95%CI:0.31-0.76). ConclusionIn delirious older adults at the ED, higher respiratory rate, lower MAP, lower body temperature, active malignancy and prior delirium history signal elevated mortality risk.

Association of Sleep Apnea and cardiovascular mortality in CAD patients

Abstract Background A growing body of epidemiological and clinical research has uncovered a significant relationship between sleep apnea and the exacerbation of cardiovascular outcomes, notably myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiac death. Individuals diagnosed with coronary artery disease (CAD) alongside sleep apnea are identified to have a heightened likelihood of experiencing recurrent cardiovascular events. Despite these associations, the link between sleep apnea and an elevated risk of mortality among CAD patients remains insufficiently explored. Purpose Our study aims to shed light on the impact of sleep apnea on mortality rates within this patient population, potentially guiding future therapeutic strategies. Methods Our cohort study leveraged data from the TriNetX multinational electronic health record network, focusing on patients aged 18 and above diagnosed with coronary artery disease. Participants were stratified into two groups based on the diagnosis of sleep apnea. To ensure a fair comparison, we adjusted for prevalent risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, and chronic kidney disease, which are commonly observed in CAD patients. Results The study encompassed 1,799,812 patients, equally divided into two groups of 899,906 individuals each, one with sleep apnea and the other without. Over a 5-year observation period, the primary endpoint, defined as event-free survival, was significantly lower in the sleep apnea group (74.385%) compared to the non-sleep apnea group (76.606%), with a Log Rank confidence interval of 1.128 to 1.148 and a p-value of <0.0001. This outcome highlights a association between sleep apnea and increased mortality rates in CAD patients. Conclusion The findings from our large cohort study underscore the critical impact of sleep apnea on mortality among patients with coronary artery disease. The diagnosis of sleep apnea in CAD patients within the TriNetX cohort was significantly associated with a higher mortality rate over a span of five years. These insights emphasize the need for integrated care strategies that not only address the primary cardiovascular conditions but also prioritize the diagnosis and management of sleep apnea to potentially improve survival outcomes in this vulnerable patient group. Our study calls for heightened clinical awareness and further research to elucidate the mechanisms behind this association and to explore the benefits of targeted sleep apnea interventions in reducing mortality rates among CAD patients.5-year Kaplan-Meier curves for mortality

Prognostic staging system correctly identifies high risk groups in cardiac transthyretin amyloidosis treated with tafamidis

Abstract Background The development of different multiparametric staging systems improved the risk assessment of cardiac transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR-CA) patients substantially. However, to date, all staging systems were validated in treatment-naive ATTR-CA patients. The introduction of tafamidis led to significant changes in the disease trajectory of ATTR-CA, indicating that it may also have an impact on the prognostic accuracy of these staging systems. Purpose Thus, we sought to assess whether the prognostic value of the National Amyloidosis Centre (NAC) staging system, currently considered as the most accurate, is sustained in ATTR-CA patients treated with tafamidis. Methods This retrospective observational study included ATTR-CA patients treated with tafamidis. Patients were continuously followed from treatment initiation to time of death. NT-proBNP and eGFR data collected at baseline were used to stratify patients into low (stage I), intermediate (stage II) and high-risk (stage III) subgroups according to the NAC staging system. Kaplan-Meier analyses were conducted to illustrate overall survival. Differences in overall survival between subgroups were assessed by log rank tests. P-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results A total of 166 ATTR-CA patients (95.2% wild-type) were enrolled. 81 (48.8%), 51 (30.7%) and 34 (20.5%) patients were stratified into stages I, II and III, respectively. Median follow-up was 539 [323-865] days, during which 20 deaths were recorded. Overall survival of the subgroups over time is demonstrated in figure 1. The probability of overall survival was significantly lower for patients in stage III compared to patients in stages I (log rank; p=0.002) and II (log rank; p=0.031). However, no differences in the probability of overall survival were identified between patients in stage I and II (log rank; p=0.679). Conclusions In this cohort of ATTR-CA patients treated with tafamidis, the NAC staging system effectively identified patients at elevated risk of mortality. However, the distinction in survival rates between low- and intermediate-risk groups was less pronounced, suggesting that tafamidis may have a stronger prognostic impact in these groups.Overall Survival across NAC Stages

Outcome and life expectancy associated with novel subgroups of atrial fibrillation: a data-driven cluster analysis

Abstract Background/Introduction Atrial fibrillation (AF) presents a significant global health burden, affecting millions and associated with elevated risks of mortality, heart failure, and stroke despite current treatment strategies. The current diagnosis of AF relies on episode characteristics, yet its heterogeneity calls for personalized assessment incorporating clinical features, biomarkers, and substrate determination for improved classification and management. Purpose This study aimed to develop a refined classification of AF according to comprehensive risk factors to identify patients at high-risk for poor prognosis and their life expectancy, aiming to facilitate personalized interventions. Methods A total of 7,391 participants aged 40-69 with AF at baseline, from UK Biobank, were recruited in the main analyses. Firstly, LASSO regression with Cox model and factor analysis were adopted for identification and integration of principal risk factors. Second, Consensus clustering analysis was employed to estimate the optimal cluster number and group all 7,391 participants. Difference in the risk of death and major complications, as well as reductions in life expectancy, among clusters were estimated. Replication was done in 2,399 participants with newly diagnosed AF within two years after baseline. Results Risk factors for AF were categorized into seven aspects (metabolic factors, respiratory factors, cardiovascular factors, renal and immunity diseases, mental health, acute illness, age), based on the correlation between them. Five distinct AF clusters were identified according to these seven characteristics: acute illness-related (Cluster 1), mental health-related (Cluster 2), cardiovascular disease-related (Cluster 3), immune-and-renal disease-related (Cluster 4), and respiratory-and-metabolism disease-related AF (Cluster 5). Patients with respiratory-and-metabolism disease-related AF had the highest risk of death, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and cerebral ischemic stroke, while those with acute illness-related AF had the lowest corresponding risk. In addition, compared with individuals with acute illness-related AF, those with respiratory-and-metabolism disease-related and mental health-related AF had the top 2 greatest loss of life expectancy. Furthermore, genetic variants for AF had different effect among the five clusters. Replication analysis confirmed the result stability. Conclusion A novel AF classification was developed, which provided insights into varying life expectancy and risks of death and complications among AF subgroups with distinct characteristics. It offers a practical approach for identifying high-risk patients, which may help to tailor precise interventions for AF management.Graphic abstractCluster features

Lipoprotein(a) regulates vascular redox state and inflammatory response in patients with coronary artery disease

Abstract Background Circulating Lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) is associated with cardiovascular disease, and over 90% of its variation in plasma is genetically determined. However, neither the causal nature of this association nor the underlying mechanisms are fully documented. Purpose We explored the hypothesis that Lp(a) triggers atherogenesis by dysregulating vascular redox-sensitive inflammatory state. Methods 1027 patients with advanced coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing cardiac surgery were genotyped and a genetic signature (LPA) determining Lp(a) levels was generated. RNA-sequencing and vascular superoxide (O2.-) measurements were performed in internal mammary arteries (IMA), and the contribution of NADPH-oxidases and uncoupled endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) were determined. Patients were followed up for a median of 5.07 years. Results A genetic screening identified 7 SNPs (LPA) that were associated with increased Lp(a) plasma levels (A). Patients in the alternative LPA variant group, as well as patients with higher plasma Lp(a) levels, had significantly higher basal arterial O2.-. Patients with diabetes had significantly lower plasma Lp(a) compared to non-diabetics and the association between plasma Lp(a) and arterial O2.- was driven by non-diabetic patients. The effect of Lp(a) on vascular redox state was primarily due to eNOS uncoupling, resulting from reduced vascular tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4) bioavailability. Indeed, patients in the alternative LPA variant group or with higher plasma Lp(a) levels had a greater arterial eNOS-derived (LNAME-inhibitable) O2.- production (B,C). Levels of eNOS essential cofactor BH4 (defined by the ratio of plasma BH4 to its oxidation product BH2) were lower in patients with higher plasma Lp(a) levels (D). There was no significant impact of Lp(a) variability on vascular NADPH oxidase-derived O2.-. RNA sequencing of arterial tissue revealed dysregulation of nitrosative and inflammatory signalling in patients with high Lp(a), although there was no association with systemic biomarkers of inflammation (i.e. hsCRP) or oxidative stress (i.e. malondialdehyde). Finally, both LPA and high plasma Lp(a) were associated with elevated risk for cardiovascular mortality (E,F). When the cox regression models were additionally corrected for arterial O2.- production, both the models for the LPA genetic signature (HR[95% CI]=2.053[0.180-23.428], p=0.563) and plasma Lp(a) (HR[95% CI]=1.700[0.325-8.885], p=0.529) lost significance. This implies that redox-sensitive inflammatory signalling may be a link between Lp(a) and cardiovascular risk. All above associations were independent from plasma ApoB. Conclusions This study demonstrates for the first time that a genetically determined increase in plasma Lp(a) results in dysregulated vascular redox/nitrosative signalling in patients with atherosclerosis, revealing new therapeutic opportunities in cardiovascular prevention.

Association of Altitude with Mortality among Patients with Hypertension - A Cohort Study

Abstract Background Available evidence falls short in assessing the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among individuals with hypertension residing at various altitudes. This study’s objective was to investigate the correlation between residential altitude and the rates of all-cause mortality and CVD mortality among hypertensive patients. Methods This prospective cohort study encompassed 67,275 hypertensive individuals aged 35 years and above in the year 2018. Participants were categorized into four distinct groups based on their residence altitude: those living below 500 meters, between 500 and 1499 meters, 1500 to 2500 meters, and above 2500 meters. The study spanned a mean follow-up duration of 4.78 years. The associations between residential altitude and the risks of all-cause and CVD mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results Among the 67,275 hypertensive patients included in the study (mean age of 63.9 years, with 45.3% being male), 8,768 deaths were recorded, of which 5,666 were attributed to CVD. Following multivariate adjustment, when compared to the group residing at altitudes below 500 meters, the groups living at altitudes of 500-1499 meters, 1500-2500 meters, and above 2500 meters exhibited significantly elevated risks of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio, HR = 1.45 (95% CI: 1.36-1.54), 1.35 (95% CI: 1.36), and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.28-1.54), respectively] and CVD mortality [HR = 1.47 (95% CI: 1.35-1.58), 1.42 (95% CI: 1.33-1.52), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.31-1.62), respectively]. For each 500-meter increment in altitude, the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality increased by 10% and 11%, respectively. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity assessments consistently supported this association. Conclusions This study’s findings indicate a substantial connection between long-term residential high-altitude exposure and increased risks of all-cause mortality and CVD mortality among individuals with hypertension. Key messages • Increased altitude of residence increases the risk of subsequent all-cause and CVD mortality in hypertensive patients. • This study highlights that relevant guidelines and healthcare providers should consider altitude as an important factor in reducing the burden of hypertension and CVD.

Association of long-term visit-to-visit glycemic variability with risk of adverse clinical outcomes in diabetic patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Abstract Background Previous research has linked glycemic variability (GV) with cardiovascular issues in type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, its impact on patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains understudied. Purpose In this study, we aim to examine how glycemic variability influences on clinical cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic HFpEF patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis utilizing the electronic medical records of a tertiary medical center in Taiwan between 2014 and 2019. Diabetic patients diagnosed with HFpEF were included in the study. The coefficient of variability of fasting glucose (FGCV) was determined for each individual, and the FGCVs were categorized into tertiles. We analyzed the association between FGCV and the risks of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), atrial fibrillation (AF), cardiac mortality, and overall mortality. Results A total of 74,835 patients were enrolled in this study. Among them, 753 diabetic patients with concomitant with HFpEF and measured FGCV were identified, with a median follow-up duration of 38.1 months. In the multivariable regression model, the third tertile of FGCV demonstrated a significant association with an elevated risk of HHF and overall mortality compared to the first tertile (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.50, p = 0.026; HR 1.64 [1.15-2.26], p = 0.006). Although a higher FGCV exhibited a trend towards increased AF and cardiac mortality, statistical significance was not reached (HR 1.19 [0.91-1.56], p=0.208; HR 1.64 [0.87-3.12], p=0.129). The Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed a significant association between higher FGCV and both HHF and overall mortality (log-rank p = 0.022 and <0.001, respectively). Conclusions Our study highlights a significant association between increased GV and a higher incidence of HHF as well as an overall mortality rate in diabetic individuals with HFpEF.

Association between surgery treatment delays and survival outcomes in patients with esophageal cancer in Hebei, China

IntroductionThe delays in cancer therapies have the potential to impact disease progression by allowing the unchecked growth and spread of cancer cells. However, the understanding of the association between treatment waiting time and survival outcomes in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is limited. This study aims to assess the impact of waiting time on survival outcomes among EC patients in Hebei province, which is recognized as one of the high-risk areas for EC in China.MethodsA total of 9,977 non-metastatic EC patients who underwent surgical treatment were identified between 2000 and 2020. The survival outcomes of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were determined using the Kaplan-Meier methodology. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was employed to evaluate the impact of treatment delays on OS and CSS.ResultsThe average delay time for initiating EC surgical treatment after diagnosis was 1.31 months (95%CI=1.29–1.34). Patients with a long delay (≥ 3 months) in treatment, comprising 9977 EC patients, exhibited significantly lower rates of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS compared to those without any delay in treatment initiation. A long delay in EC treatment independently associated with an elevated risk of all-cause and cancer-cause mortality among various patient subgroups, including males, older individuals, single individuals, low-income patients, residents of nonmetropolitan counties, as well as those diagnosed with poorly differentiated and stage IV EC.DiscussionThe long delay of treatment initiation impacts the outcomes of OS and CSS in EC patients. Optimizing treatment timing may enhance life expectancy for individuals diagnosed with EC.

Prognostic impact of the presence and absence of angina on mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in the ISCHEMIA trial

Abstract Introduction Patients with chronic coronary syndromes (CCS) manifested by myocardial ischemia may present with typical angina or with no anginal symptoms. It is unclear whether symptom status affects prognosis in these patients. Purpose To assess whether the risk of all-cause mortality and other cardiovascular (CV) outcomes varied according to the presence or absence of angina in patients with CCS and moderate to severe myocardial ischemia in the ISCHEMIA trial. Methods The ISCHEMIA data set was obtained from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute under a data use agreement. Subjects were divided into quartiles by baseline Seattle Angina Questionnaire Angina Frequency (SAQ AF) score. Quartile (Q)1 included patients with SAQ AF scores from 1-70 whereas all patients in Q4 had SAQ AF scores of 100, indicating no angina at baseline. Categorical variables were compared using the chi-squared or Fisher’s exact test. Continuous variables were compared using the student T-test or Wilcoxon rank sum test. The cumulative incidence rate of outcomes up to five years was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and the rate curves were compared using the log-rank test. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with potential confounders from baseline characteristics, clinical history, and angiographic characteristics included. All tests were two-sided and P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Of the 5,179 patients with CCS and at least moderate ischemia on stress testing, 1,434 were in Q1 and 1,635 were in Q4. Compared to Q1, patients in Q4 were older (66.4 (9.0) vs. 62.8 (9.6); P<0.001), more often male (82% vs. 73%; P<0.001), more often diabetic (43% vs. 38%; P=0.006) and less often current smokers (12% vs. 15%; P=0.001). The estimated glomerular filtration rate was lower in Q4 (82(22) vs. 86 (38); P=0.002). Fewer patients in Q4 had NYHA class II heart failure (37% vs. 62%) and more had Class I symptoms (63% vs. 38%) (P<0.001). Q4 patients had a lower ejection fraction (59% vs. 60%; P=0.002), a lower Duke jeopardy score (4.9(3.5) vs. 5.5 (3.3); P<0.001), less often had severe ischemia (47% vs. 56%), and more often had moderate ischemia (40% vs. 32 %) (P<0.001). The cumulative 5-year event rates for Q4 vs. Q1 were: all-cause death, 10.6% and 6.4% (P=0.002); CV death/MI, 16.3% vs. 13.7% (P=0.97); CV death, 7% vs. 3.7% (P=0.009); MI, 11.4% vs. 11.4% (P=0.2). On multivariable Cox regression, angina quartile (Q4 vs. Q1) was not independently associated with all-cause death (HR 1.34, 95% CI: 0.76-2.31; P=0.33), CV death/MI (HR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.52-1.14; P=0.19), CV death (HR 1.10, 95% CI: 0.50-2.43; P=0.82), or MI (HR 0.70; 95% CI: 0.45-1.08; P=0.11). Conclusion In the ISCHEMIA trial, patients with CCS and moderate to severe myocardial ischemia are at elevated risk for all-cause mortality and other major CV outcomes. This risk is not modified by the presence or absence of angina.

Coronary inflammation stratifies risk in patients undergoing coronary CT angiography: the Oxford Risk Factors and Non-Invasive Imaging (ORFAN) study

Abstract Background Patients with chest pain symptoms often undergo coronary CT angiography (CCTA) for the diagnosis of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) to guide revascularisation. However, acute cardiac events could occur in the absence of obstructive CAD. Further risk stratification of patients could potentially be useful by quantifying coronary inflammation using the Fat Attenuation Index (FAI) Score, and an artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted prognostic model that captures the inflammatory risk by integrating CCTA-derived metrics (including FAI Score and plaque burden) and the patient’s clinical risk factors. Purpose To evaluate the risk of cardiac events among patients without obstructive CAD, and the prognostic value of integrating coronary inflammation in risk stratifying this patient group. Methods From the Oxford Risk Factors and Non-invasive imaging (ORFAN) study, patients undergoing CCTA in 7 UK Hospitals (n=40,091) were followed up for the incidence of cardiac mortality over a median(IQR) of 2.7(1.4-5.3) years. In a nested cohort of 3,393 patients with long-term follow up, we evaluated the long-term prognostic value of FAI Score and the performance of AI-Risk algorithm over a median(IQR) follow up of 7.7(6.4-9.1) years. Reclassification of risk category from AI-Risk was compared with contemporary clinical risk score (QRISK3). Results Patients without obstructive CAD (n=32,533, 81.1%) accounted for 63.7% of all cardiac deaths (n=1,754) during follow up, highlighting the substantial proportion of cardiac events in absolute terms given a large proportion of patients without obstructive CAD. In the nested cohort with long-term follow up, FAI Score in any of the 3 epicardial coronary arteries was significantly associated with cardiac mortality with or without obstructive CAD. In the whole cohort, the highest quartile of FAI Score in LAD showed 20-times higher risk of cardiac death compared with the lowest quartile (Panel A). Integrating coronary inflammation with clinical risk factors and plaque burden, patients with very-high AI-Risk classification showed 6-fold higher risk of cardiac mortality compared to low/medium risk, with good alignment of the incident predicted events from AI-Risk and observed events. (Panel B) The predicted cardiac mortality from AI-Risk also demonstrated good calibration with the observed events in the whole population. (Panel C) Finally, AI-Risk significantly reclassify the risk above clinical risk factor-based prediction (QRISK3) (Panel D). Conclusion Patients with high coronary inflammation measured by FAI Score showed significantly elevated risk for cardiac mortality. The AI-enabled absolute risk prediction algorithm leads to significant reclassification of patients undergoing routine CCTA, and can be used as a precision medicine tool.

Prognostic significance of the estimated pulse wave velocity in critically ill patients with coronary heart disease

Abstract Background The estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) has emerged as an alternative measurement of arterial stiffness which has been suggested as a potential marker for mortality and cardiovascular risk. Nonetheless, its prognostic significance in critically ill patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) remains uncertain. Methods Patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) were grouped into quartiles according to the ePWV levels. We conducted logistic and Cox regression analyses to examine the association between ePWV and both in-hospital and 1-year all-cause mortality among critically ill patients with CHD. Additionally, we employed restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis to explore the relationship between ePWV as a continuous variable and mortality. Results A total of 11001 patients (men: 63.6%, age: 71.94 [IQR: 62.69-81.31]) were included in this study. In-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality rates were 9.1% and 25.1%, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models demonstrated that ePWV was independently associated with an elevated risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.27; 95%CI [1.14-1.41]; p<0.001) and 1-year mortality (OR 1.49; 95% CI [1.38-1.60]; p<0.001]. The restricted cubic splines regression model revealed a linear relationship between ePWV and both in-hospital and 1-year mortality (p for non-linearity = 0.098 and p for non-linearity = 0.156, respectively). Conclusion Our findings indicate a linear association between ePWV levels and short- and long-term mortality in critically ill patients with CHD.

Interpretable machine learning model for predicting long-term cardiovascular mortality risk in chronic kidney disease patients using SHAP explainers

Abstract Background Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) exhibited a pronounced burden of cardiac mortality. However, early prediction of cardiovascular mortality risk in CKD patients remains an unmet medical need. Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) algorithms and identify the most influential factors in predicting long-term cardiac mortality among CKD patients. Methods Six ML models were developed, with the most effective one chosen for predicting and categorising patients into high-risk and low-risk groups based on the maximal Youden’s index. Differences in survival rates were assessed using the log-rank test on Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox regression analysis was employed to investigate the relationship between ML-predicted risk scores and mortality. Furthermore, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was implemented to provide personalised explanations for model decisions. Results The auto-encoder (AE) model achieved the highest AUC of 0.94, with a sensitivity of 80.95% and specificity of 96.34%. Compared to individuals in low-risk group, those in high-risk group exhibited a significantly elevated risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 48.24; P <0.001). According to the SHAP model, age, C-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen and hypertension were identified as the four most influential factors in the AE model. Conclusions Our study successfully developed an AE machine learning model for predicting 10-year cardiovascular mortality among CKD patients. The combination of ML model and SHAP aids doctors in understanding key features in the model, improving their insight into decision-making related to disease severity assessment, thus facilitating early preventive strategies in clinical practice.

Mortality risk in patients with carotid artery disease undergoing carotid endarterectomy compared to the general population

Abstract Background Patients with carotid artery disease undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) appear to be at high risk of all-cause mortality during their follow-up. However, the possible predictors of this adverse outcome are not elucidated yet. Purpose We aimed to test cardiovascular (CV) risk factors as possible predictors of all-cause mortality in patients undergoing CEA and to determine whether there is a difference between the mortality rate of our study cohort and the general population. We hypothesize that CEA-treated patients have a higher mortality rate during follow-up after surgery than the general population, which is not related to the presence of CV risk factors. Methods We prospectively enrolled and followed up patients undergoing CEA. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression were performed to test whether common CV risk factors (demographics, laboratory values, comorbidities, and events before CEA) were predictive of all-cause mortality. We then compared the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of our population and the age-sex-matched Minnesota (MN) general population at 5,10, and 21 years of follow-up after CEA. Results A total of 710 patients were followed for a median of 7.1 [2.9-11.9] years after CEA. Mortality occurred in 198 (27.0%) patients during the follow-up. The median time to event was 11.0 [10.0-12.0] years. Age was the only predictor of all-cause mortality in CEA-treated patients in multivariable models adjusted for known CV risk factors (Model 1: HR 1.03 [95%CI 1.01-1.06]; p=0.004; Model 2: HR 1.02 [95%CI 1.00-1.04]; p=0.023) (Table 1). However, the CEA-treated group had a higher mortality rate than would have been expected in the MN population (log-rank p<0.001) (Fig.1A). Compared to the MN population, at 5 years of follow-up only patients <60 years old had a higher SMR (4.53 [1.95-8.92]; p=0.001), whereas, at 10 years and 21 years of follow-up, our study population had a higher mortality rate at any age (Fig.1B). Conclusions The elevated mortality risk post-CEA in our cohort cannot be solely attributed to chronological aging. The underlying process of atherosclerosis likely contributes to all-cause mortality, and plaque characteristics may offer additional insight into the risk stratification of this patient group.All cause mortality predictors after CEAStudy population vs. MN population SMR

Prehospital Blood Pressure Lowering in Patients with Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Whether prehospital blood pressure control improves outcomes among patients with acute ischemic stroke is uncertain. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the effect of prehospital blood pressure reduction treatment in patients with ischemic stroke. We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized controlled trials that compared prehospital blood pressure reduction treatment with usual treatment or no treatment in patients with stroke. The primary outcome was functional outcome, assessed with the distribution of modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days, while secondary outcome was mortality at 90 days. Of 428 studies reviewed, three were appropriate for analysis, totaling 3878 patients. In patients with ischemic stroke, prehospital blood pressure reduction treatment was associated with higher mRS scores at 90 days (common OR for worse mRS OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08-1.49) and increased risk of mortality at 90 days (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.02-1.61) compared with the usual treatment. In patients with ischemic stroke, prehospital blood pressure reduction treatment was associated with a higher likelihood of poor functional outcome and an elevated risk of mortality.

The association of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among the metabolic syndrome population

BackgroundThe neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has emerged as a novel inflammatory marker related to disease prognosis, this study aimed to evaluate the association between NLR and mortality in metabolic syndrome (MetS) patients.MethodsThis study used data from 13,156 participants with MetS, derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 to 2020. The NLR was calculated, and its associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and all-cause mortality were assessed by multivariate Cox regression, restricted cubic spline and Kaplan-Meier curves. The study performed subgroup analyses to validate the robustness of the findings in different populations. The predictive ability of NLR was evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve. The indirect impact of eGFR was explored by mediation analysis.ResultsAs NLR values increased, there was an obvious rise in the risk of mortality in MetS. The fully adjusted continuous model revealed a 16.0%, 14.4% elevated risk of CVD mortality (HR = 1.160; 95% CI: 1. 090-1.234, p < 0.0001) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.144; 95% CI: 1. 086-1.206, p < 0.0001), respectively, with each one-unit increment in NLR. Comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of NLR, the top quartile exhibited a significantly increased risk of CVD mortality (HR = 2. 447; 95% CI: 1. 561-3. 836, p < 0.0001), and all-cause mortality (HR = 1. 53; 95% CI: 1. 188-1. 972, p = 0.001) among individuals with MetS. Subgroup analyses substantiated the stability of these associations in most populations. The curve under area for the 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.650, 0.716, and 0.645 for CVD mortality, and 0.746, 0.688, and 0.635 for all-cause mortality. Significantly, the eGFR acted as an intermediary in the relationship of NLR with CVD mortality and all-cause mortality, accounting for 9.85% and 9.86% of the effect, respectively.ConclusionThe NLR served as a significant indicator for assessing the risk of mortality in the MetS population. Consequently, we recommended the regular assessment of NLR in MetS populations as a potentially advantageous method for evaluating their risk of mortality.

Age Differences and Prevalence of Comorbidities for Death and Survival in Patients with COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study in a Region of Southern Italy

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has resulted in a considerable number of deaths worldwide. The virus damages the pulmonary artery endothelium, leading to a condition known as microvascular pulmonary inflammatory thrombotic syndrome (MPITS), which can be fatal and cause multiple organ failure. The presence of preexisting comorbidities has been shown to significantly impact the severity and prognosis of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The objective of this study was to compare the age groups of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to identify the prevalence of comorbidities associated with death and survival in an area of southern Italy. The data set consisted of 1985 patients with confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection who were admitted to the A.O.U. San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d’Aragona Hospital in Salerno between January 2021 and December 2022. The results were presented for the overall population and stratified by outcome and age group. All analyses were performed using the XLSTAT (Lumivero, 2024, Paris, France) and STATA software (release 16.1, StataCorp LLG, College Station, TX, USA, 2019) packages. In the study, population, 636 cases (32%) resulted in death, with a higher prevalence in the 60–79 age group, followed by the ≥80 and 30–59 age groups. The most prevalent diseases among deceased and surviving patients with confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were those affecting the circulatory system (61.5% vs. 55.5%), the respiratory system (55.8% vs. 26.2%), and the metabolic system (25.9% vs. 25.4%). In patients aged 30–79, respiratory diseases were the primary cause of mortality, whereas in those aged ≥80, circulatory system diseases were more prevalent. Among survivors, cardiovascular diseases were the most common comorbidities across all age groups, followed by respiratory diseases and endocrine, metabolic, and immune disorders. Moreover, these comorbidities were associated with an elevated risk of mortality. The study emphasizes the substantial influence of age and comorbidities on the mortality associated with SARS-CoC-2 infection. These findings highlight the necessity for targeted interventions to manage comorbid conditions in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in older adults.

The processes of care and long-term mortality of acute myocardial infarction with cardiogenic shock survivors: A nationwide cohort study

BackgroundAcute myocardial infarction with cardiogenic shock (AMI-CS) carries a significant risk of inpatient mortality compared with AMI alone, although it is unclear what the longer-term outcomes of AMI-CS survivors is, and whether the inpatient quality of care received influences this. MethodsUsing the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) registry, linked to Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality data, we analyzed 330,517 UK AMI patients; 3330 (1 %) with CS. Patients dying within thirty-days of admission were excluded. Median follow-up for patients included was 1642 days. Cox regression models were fitted, adjusting for demographics and management strategy. ResultsAMI-CS survivors were younger (median years) (67 vs. 69, p < 0.001), less often female (29 % vs. 32 %, p < 0.001) and more likely to present with STEMI (81 % vs. 37 %, p < 0.001). Mortality risk was highest at one-year for AMI-CS survivors compared to patients that did not suffer CS (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.85; 95 % CI; 1.68–2.04, p < 0.001), and remained elevated at five-years (HR 1.55; 95 % CI; 1.43–1.68, p < 0.001). ‘Excellent-care’ according to mean opportunity-based quality indicator (OBQI) score compared to ‘Poor-care’, showed reduced risk of long-term mortality with AMI-CS (HR: 0.46, CI; 0.39–0.54, P < 0.001). Of patients that received “Excellent-care”, AMI-CS survivors had elevated risk of long-term mortality (HR 1.45, 95 % CI; 1.34–1.57, P < 0.001). ConclusionAMI-CS survivors have elevated risk long-term mortality risk when compared with AMI patients, which persists beyond five years. AMI-CS patients that receive higher-quality inpatient care have better longer-term survival compared to those with poorer inpatient care.

Association between reduced hemoglobin-to-red cell distribution width ratio and elevated cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: Insights from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Study, 1999-2018.

The purpose of this research was to examine the relationship between the hemoglobin-to-red blood cell distribution width ratio (HRR) and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality in people who have diabetes. Data derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), between the years 1999 to 2018, were meticulously analyzed. Mortality data, encompassing events until December 31, 2019, were systematically collected. A comprehensive group comprising of 8,732 participants were subjected to scrutiny, and subsequently, classified into four distinct groups predicated upon quartiles of baseline HRR levels: Q1 (n = 2,183), Q2 (n = 2,181), Q3 (n = 2,185), and Q4 (n = 2,183). The correlation between HRR and CVD-related mortality was examined through the use of survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models, the latter incorporating weights as advised by NHANES. Among the 8,732 participants in the study cohort, CVD-related mortality was identified in 710 cases. The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant association, indicating that a decreased HRR was correlated with a reduction in survival in cases with CVD. Both univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses consistently indicated that patients exhibiting a lower HRR exhibited a markedly elevated risk of CVD-related mortality in comparison to those with higher HRR. Notably, the correlation between HRR and decreasing CVD-related mortality was discerned to be non-linear. In patients with diabetes, a decreased HRR was associated with an increased risk of CVD-related mortality.

Unraveling the impact of abdominal arterial calcifications on kidney transplant waitlist mortality through ensemble machine learning

The scarcity of organ donors relative to the number of patients with End Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD) has led to prolonged waiting times for kidney transplants, contributing to elevated cardiovascular mortality risk. Transplant professionals are tasked with the complex allocation of limited organs to a vulnerable patient group facing heightened morbidity and mortality risk. The need for continuous re-evaluation of waitlisted patients is evident due to the significant number who perish while awaiting transplantation. Among individuals with ESKD, vascular calcification, particularly Abdominal Arterial Calcifications (AAC), holds predictive value for cardiovascular events and mortality. However, a standardized method to quantify AAC’s prognostic potential remains lacking, especially for kidney transplant evaluations. This study presents an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to study the relationship between AAC score and mortality in patients on the waitlist and triage patients needing transplantation. Using the AAC score, the proposed ML model can predict kidney transplant waitlist morality with an accuracy of 78% while its accuracy is 68% without using this score. This study leverages explainable ML to explore the relationship between predictors and mortality in waitlisted patients, aiming to improve patient triage accuracy.

Impact of mental disorders on the all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease outcomes in adults with new-onset type 1 diabetes: A nationwide cohort study

AimsThis population-based study aimed to investigate the impact of mental disorders on the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes in adults with new-onset type 1 diabetes. Materials and methodsWe included 17,429 patients with new-onset type 1 diabetes without CVD from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Mental disorders include depression, bipolar, persistent affective and other affective disorders, anxiety, eating disorders, personality and behavioral disorders, and substance abuse. Individuals with or without mental disorders were matched 1:1 by age, sex, and year of the index date. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and composite CVD events. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 7.99 years, all-cause mortality (composite CVD outcomes) occurred in 1,562 patients (1,993 patients with CVD outcomes) with mental disorders and 1,211 patients (1,611 patients with CVD outcomes) without mental disorders. The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality and composite CVD outcomes in patients with mental disorders was 1.35 and 1.32, respectively, compared to those without mental disorders. The aHR for the all-cause mortality and composite CVD events was 1.27 and 1.28 in the subgroup with one mental disorder and 1.57 and 1.43 in the subgroup with multiple mental disorders, compared to those without mental disorders. ConclusionsMental disorders are associated with an elevated risk of all-cause mortality and CVD in adults with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. Early detection and greater attention to premature death and CVD development are required in patients with new-onset type 1 diabetes and mental disorders.