Elephant Seals Research Articles

A proteome perspective on adaptive responses to physiological challenges in marine mammals

While most mammals decrease energy expenditure while fasting, marine mammals such as northern elephant seals fast for several months while undergoing energy-intensive life history stages (e.g., postnatal development, molting, reproduction). Energy for these functions is provided by mobilization of large energy stores in blubber, which is driven by elevation of stress hormone levels across the fast. We used a proteome approach to examine potential mechanisms regulating fasting metabolism and responses to experimental stress challenges in elephant seals. We compared five proteome datasets and identified proteins that were altered by both fasting and experimental stress challenges across multiple life history stages and tissues in seals. These included lipid and hormone transport proteins (e.g., apolipoproteins, corticosteroid-binding globulin, transthyretin), acute phase proteins (e.g., alpha-2-macroglobulin, haptoglobin), antioxidant enzymes (e.g., glutathione peroxidase 3, catalase), adipokines (e.g., mimecan), and metabolic enzymes (e.g., fatty acid synthase, long chain fatty acid CoA ligase), among others. We suggest that these proteins may function as part of a core adaptive responses to physiological challenges in marine mammals. However, our ability to identify components of these responses has been hindered by several practical and technical challenges, and we will discuss the limitations and considerations for using a proteome approach in comparative physiology studies based on our experience. This research was funded by University of the Pacific and Offce of Naval Research. This is the full abstract presented at the American Physiology Summit 2024 meeting and is only available in HTML format. There are no additional versions or additional content available for this abstract. Physiology was not involved in the peer review process.

Evolution of the peroxiredoxin gene family: an antioxidant enzyme in the context of hypoxia-induced by aquatic mammals dives

Peroxiredoxins are a group of antioxidant enzymes that play a crucial role in eliminating hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) produced during cellular metabolism. In conditions such as tissue ischemia/reperfusion, H2O2 production is heightened. This scenario is recurrent in aquatic mammals, such as cetaceans and pinnipeds, when they perform breath-hold dives that lead to depletion of oxygen stores and cell hypoxia due to prolonged submersion. In such circumstances, peroxiredoxins are essential for regulating metabolism and preventing oxidative damage. Thus, our objective was to investigate evolutionary patterns of the peroxiredoxin gene family among aquatic mammalian species. Accordingly, we identified the number of ortholog and paralog genes among mammals, examining events of gene duplication, patterns of chromosomal distribution, and adaptive selection. We found that most subtypes of peroxiredoxins are characterized by single-copy genes with minimal missing data, with PRDX1, the most highly expressed subtype found in both the nucleus and cytoplasm, exhibiting an increase in gene copies in aquatic mammals, particularly in pinnipeds. The distribution of the copies was dispersed along the genome and the majority were retrocopies of the main coding sequence with little divergence among them. We also found evidence of positive selection in the PRDX3 gene, especially in a convergent mutation among two deepest-diving species, cuvier’s beaked whale and southern elephant seal in which the amino acid had radical physical-chemical property change, possibly affecting the protein function. These results suggest that the peroxiredoxin gene family has a role in the evolution of aquatic mammals by reducing oxidative damage intrinsic to diving behavior in these species. FAPESP - São Paulo Research Foundation. This is the full abstract presented at the American Physiology Summit 2024 meeting and is only available in HTML format. There are no additional versions or additional content available for this abstract. Physiology was not involved in the peer review process.

Hypoxia exposure blunts angiogenic signaling and upregulates the antioxidant system in endothelial cells derived from elephant seals

BackgroundElephant seals exhibit extreme hypoxemic tolerance derived from repetitive hypoxia/reoxygenation episodes they experience during diving bouts. Real-time assessment of the molecular changes underlying protection against hypoxic injury in seals remains restricted by their at-sea inaccessibility. Hence, we developed a proliferative arterial endothelial cell culture model from elephant seals and used RNA-seq, functional assays, and confocal microscopy to assess the molecular response to prolonged hypoxia.ResultsSeal and human endothelial cells exposed to 1% O2 for up to 6 h respond differently to acute and prolonged hypoxia. Seal cells decouple stabilization of the hypoxia-sensitive transcriptional regulator HIF-1α from angiogenic signaling. Rapid upregulation of genes involved in glutathione (GSH) metabolism supports the maintenance of GSH pools, and intracellular succinate increases in seal but not human cells. High maximal and spare respiratory capacity in seal cells after hypoxia exposure occurs in concert with increasing mitochondrial branch length and independent from major changes in extracellular acidification rate, suggesting that seal cells recover oxidative metabolism without significant glycolytic dependency after hypoxia exposure.ConclusionsWe found that the glutathione antioxidant system is upregulated in seal endothelial cells during hypoxia, while this system remains static in comparable human cells. Furthermore, we found that in contrast to human cells, hypoxia exposure rapidly activates HIF-1 in seal cells, but this response is decoupled from the canonical angiogenesis pathway. These results highlight the unique mechanisms that confer extraordinary tolerance to limited oxygen availability in a champion diving mammal.

Individual variation in life-history timing: synchronous presence, asynchronous events and phenological compensation in a wild mammal.

Many animals and plants have species-typical annual cycles, but individuals vary in their timing of life-history events. Individual variation in fur replacement (moult) timing is poorly understood in mammals due to the challenge of repeated observations and longitudinal sampling. We examined factors that influence variation in moult duration and timing among elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris). We quantified the onset and progression of fur loss in 1178 individuals. We found that an exceptionally rapid visible moult (7 days, the shortest of any mammals or birds), and a wide range of moult start dates (spanning 6-10× the event duration) facilitated high asynchrony across individuals (only 20% of individuals in the population moulting at the same time). Some of the variation was due to reproductive state, as reproductively mature females that skipped a breeding season moulted a week earlier than reproductive females. Moreover, individual variation in timing and duration within age-sex categories far outweighed (76-80%) variation among age-sex categories. Individuals arriving at the end of the moult season spent 50% less time on the beach, which allowed them to catch up in their annual cycles and reduce population-level variance during breeding. These findings underscore the importance of individual variation in annual cycles.

Redefining 'state-of-the-art' for integrated population models with immigration.

Research Highlight: Christian, M., Oosthuizen, W. C., Bester, M. N., & de Bruyn, P. N. (2024). Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals. Journal of Animal Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14053. Immigration can have profound consequences for local population dynamics and demography, but collecting data to accurately quantifying it is challenging. The recent rise of integrated population models (IPMs) offers an alternative by making it possible to estimate immigration without the need for explicit data, and to quantify its contribution to population dynamics through transient Life Table Response Experiments (tLTREs). Simulation studies have, however, highlighted that this approach can be prone to bias and overestimation. In their new study, Christian etal. address one of the root causes of this issue by improving the estimation of time variation in vital rates and immigration using Gaussian processes in lieu of traditionally used temporal random effects. They demonstrate that IPM-tLTRE frameworks with Gaussian processes produce more accurate and less biased estimates of immigration and its contribution to population dynamics and illustrate the applicability of this approach using a long-term data set on elephant seals (Mirounga leonida). Results are validated with a simulation study and suggest that immigration of breeding females has been central for population recovery of elephant seals despite the species' high female site fidelity. Christian etal. thus present new insights into population regulation of long-lived marine mammals and highlight the potential for using Gaussian process priors in IPMs. They also illustrate a suite of 'best practices' for state-of-the-art IPM-tLTRE analyses and provide an inspirational example for the kind of ecological modelling workflow that can be invaluable not just as a starting point for fellow ecologists picking up or improving their own IPM-tLTRE analyses, but also for teaching and in contexts where model estimates are used for informing management and conservation decision-making.

Sealing the deal - Antarctic fur seals' active hunting tactics to capture small evasive prey revealed by miniature sonar tags.

The ability of predators to adopt hunting tactics that minimise escape reactions from prey is crucial for efficient foraging, and depends on detection capabilities and locomotor performance of both predators and prey. Here, we investigated the efficiency of a small pinniped, the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) at exploiting their small prey by describing for the first time their fine-scale predator-prey interactions. We compared these with those from another diving predator, the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) that forage on the same prey type. We used data recorded by a newly developed sonar tag that combines active acoustics with ultrahigh-resolution movement sensors to study simultaneously the fine-scale behaviour of both Antarctic fur seals and prey during predator-prey interactions in more than 1200 prey capture events for eight female Antarctic fur seals. Our results showed that Antarctic fur seals and their prey detect each other at the same time, i.e. 1-2 s before the strike, forcing Antarctic fur seals to display reactive fast-moving chases to capture their prey. In contrast, southern elephant seals detect their prey up to 10 s before the strike, allowing them to approach their prey stealthily without triggering an escape reaction. The active hunting tactics used by Antarctic fur seals is probably very energy consuming compared with the stalking tactics used by southern elephant seals but might be compensated for by the consumption of faster-moving larger prey. We suggest that differences in manoeuvrability, locomotor performance and detection capacities and in pace of life between Antarctic fur seals and southern elephant seals might explain these differences in hunting styles.

Beyond boundaries: governance considerations for climate-driven habitat shifts of highly migratory marine species across jurisdictions

The mobile nature of migratory marine animals across jurisdictional boundaries can challenge the management of biodiversity, particularly under global environmental change. While projections of climate-driven habitat change can reveal whether marine species are predicted to gain or lose habitat in the future, geopolitical boundaries and differing governance regimes may influence animals’ abilities to thrive in new areas. Broad geographic movements and diverse governance approaches elicit the need for strong international collaboration to holistically manage and conserve these shared migratory species. In this study, we use data from the Tagging of Pacific Predators program to demonstrate the feasibility of using climate-driven habitat projections to assess species’ jurisdictional redistribution. Focusing on four species (shortfin mako shark, California sea lion, northern elephant seal, and sooty shearwater), we calculate the projected change in core habitat across jurisdictional boundaries throughout the century and highlight associated management implications. Using climate-driven habitat projections from the period of 2001 to 2010, and an RCP 8.5 climate scenario, we found that all four species are projected to face up to a 2.5-10% change in core habitat across jurisdictions in the Northeast Pacific, with the greatest gains of core habitat redistribution within the United States exclusive economic zone and in areas beyond national jurisdiction. Overall, our study demonstrates how efforts to understand the impacts of climate change on species’ habitat use should be expanded to consider how resulting shifts may provoke new management challenges in a legally bounded, yet physically borderless ocean. We discuss governance implications for transboundary habitat redistribution as highly migratory marine species potentially shift across legal jurisdictions, including new ocean areas beyond national judications, considerations which are applicable within and beyond this Pacific case study. Our study also highlights data needs and management strategies to inform high-level conservation strategies, as well as recommendations for using updated tagging data and climate models to build upon this approach in future work.

1500-year reconstruction of Circumpolar Deep Water intrusion and its impact on southern elephant seal populations in King George Island, West Antarctic Peninsula

Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intrusion onto the continental shelf significantly affects basal melting of ice shelves, oceanographic and ecological processes in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Understanding the changes in CDW upwelling and its impacts on marine ecology during historical periods is urgent. Here, we presented a new reconstruction for the variability in CDW intrusion onto the WAP over the past 1500 years by using the cadmium (Cd) concentrations in southern elephant seal hairs collected from King George Island. In addition, multi-proxies including the abundance of seal hairs and TOC, TN, LOI, and bio-elements in the sediments were integrated to infer historical seal populations by using the Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). The overall trend of Cd concentrations was well consistent with those of primary productivity and sea ice, reflecting the contribution of CDW on regional oceanic environment and ecology. Notably, during a period of ∼900–500 yr BP, enhanced CDW intrusion allowed for increased regional marine productivity and decreased sea ice, and ultimately promoting an increase in seal populations. Enhanced CDW intrusion was possibly driven by southward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind. These results indicated that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were coupled with regional oceanic circulation and ecological processes of the Southern Ocean.

Terrestrial Birth and Body Size Tune UCP1 Functionality in Seals.

The molecular evolution of the mammalian heater protein UCP1 is a powerful biomarker to understand thermoregulatory strategies during species radiation into extreme climates, such as aquatic life with high thermal conductivity. While fully aquatic mammals lost UCP1, most semiaquatic seals display intact UCP1 genes, apart from large elephant seals. Here, we show that UCP1 thermogenic activity of the small-bodied harbor seal is equally potent compared to terrestrial orthologs, emphasizing its importance for neonatal survival on land. In contrast, elephant seal UCP1 does not display thermogenic activity, not even when translating a repaired or a recently highlighted truncated version. Thus, the thermogenic benefits for neonatal survival during terrestrial birth in semiaquatic pinnipeds maintained evolutionary selection pressure on UCP1 function and were only outweighed by extreme body sizes among elephant seals, fully eliminating UCP1-dependent thermogenesis.

Lack of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in the South Shetland Islands in Antarctica, Early 2023.

In January 2023, an active surveillance initiative was undertaken in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, with the specific objective of ascertaining evidence for the presence of avian influenza, and specifically the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 (HPAIV H5N1). The investigation encompassed diverse locations, including Hanna Point (Livingston Island), Lions Rump (King George Island), and Base Escudero (King George Island), with targeted observations on marine mammals (southern elephant seals), flying birds (the kelp gull, snowy sheathbill and brown skua), and penguins (the chinstrap penguin and gentoo penguin). The study encompassed the examination of these sites for signs of mass mortality events possibly attributable to HPAIV H5N1, as well as sampling for influenza detection by means of real-time RT-PCR. Two hundred and seven (207) samples were collected, including 73 fecal samples obtained from the environment from marine mammals (predominantly feces of southern elephant seals), and 77 cloacal samples from penguins of the genus Pygoscelis (predominantly from the gentoo penguin). No evidence of mass mortality attributable to HPAIV H5N1 was observed, and all the collected samples tested negative for the presence of the virus, strongly suggesting the absence of the virus in the Antarctic territory during the specified period. This empirical evidence holds significant implications for both the ecological integrity of the region and the potential zoonotic threats, underscoring the importance of continued surveillance and monitoring in the Antarctic ecosystem.

From land to ocean: One month for southern elephant seal pups to acquire aquatic skills prior to their first departure to sea

Weaned southern elephant seals (SES) quickly transition from terrestrial to aquatic life after a 5- to 6-week post-weaning period. At sea, juveniles and adult elephant seals present extreme, continuous diving behaviour. Previous studies have highlighted the importance of the post-weaning period for weanlings to prepare for the physiological challenges of their future sea life. However, very little is known about how their body condition during this period may influence the development of their behaviour and brain activities. To characterise changes in the behavioural and brain activity of weanlings prior to ocean departure, we implemented a multi-logger approach combining measurements of movements (related to behaviour), pressure (related to diving), and brain electrical activity. As pups age, the amount of time allocated to resting decreases in favour of physical activity. Most resting (9.6 ± 1.2 h/day) takes place during daytime, with periods of slow-wave sleep representing 4.9 ± 0.9 h/day during the first 2 weeks. Furthermore, an increasing proportion of physical activity transitions from land to shore. Additionally, pups in poorer condition (lean group) are more active earlier than those in better condition (corpulent group). Finally, at weaning, clear circadian activity with two peaks at dawn and dusk is observed, and this pattern remains unchanged during the 4 weeks on land. This circadian pattern matches the one observed in adults at sea, with more prey catches at dawn and dusk, raising the question of whether it is endogenous or triggered by the mother during lactation.

Foraging behaviour and ecology of transient killer whales within a deep submarine canyon system.

Transient killer whales have been documented hunting marine mammals across a variety of habitats. However, relatively little has been reported about their predatory behaviours near deep submarine canyons and oceanic environments. We used a long-term database of sightings and encounters with these predators in and around the Monterey Submarine Canyon, California to describe foraging behaviour, diet, seasonal occurrence, and habitat use patterns. Transient killer whales belonging to the outer coast subpopulation were observed within the study area 261 times from 2006-2021. Occurrences, behaviours, and group sizes all varied seasonally, with more encounters occurring in the spring as grey whales migrated northward from their breeding and calving lagoons in Mexico (March-May). Groups of killer whales foraged exclusively in open water, with individuals within the groups following the contours of the submarine canyon as they searched for prey. Focal follows revealed that killer whales spent 51% of their time searching for prey (26% of their time along the shelf-break and upper slope of the canyon, and 25% in open water). The remainder of their time was spent pursuing prey (10%), feeding (23%), travelling (9%), socializing (6%), and resting (1%). Prey species during 87 observed predation events included California sea lions, grey whale calves, northern elephant seals, minke whales, common dolphins, Pacific white-sided dolphins, Dall's porpoise, harbour porpoise, harbour seals, and sea birds. The calculated kill rates (based on 270 hours of observing 50 predation events) were 0.26 California sea lions per killer whale over 24 hours, 0.11 grey whale calves, and 0.15 for all remaining prey species combined. These behavioural observations provide insights into predator-prey interactions among apex predators over submarine canyons and deep pelagic environments.

Foraging behavior and age affect maternal transfer of mercury to northern elephant seal pups

Deep ocean foraging northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) consume fish and squid in remote depths of the North Pacific Ocean. Contaminants bioaccumulated from prey are subsequently transferred by adult females to pups during gestation and lactation, linking pups to mercury contamination in mesopelagic food webs (200–1000 m depths). Maternal transfer of mercury to developing seal pups was related to maternal mercury contamination and was strongly correlated with maternal foraging behavior (biotelemetry and isotopes). Mercury concentrations in lanugo (hair grown in utero) were among the highest observed worldwide for young pinnipeds (geometric mean 23.01 μg/g dw, range 8.03–63.09 μg/g dw; n = 373); thus, some pups may be at an elevated risk of sub-lethal adverse health effects. Fetal mercury exposure was affected by maternal foraging geographic location and depth; mercury concentrations were highest in pups of the deepest diving, pelagic females. Moreover, pup lanugo mercury concentrations were strongly repeatable among successive pups of individual females, demonstrating relative consistency in pup mercury exposure based on maternal foraging strategies. Northern elephant seals are biosentinels of a remote deep-sea ecosystem. Our results suggest that mercury within North Pacific mesopelagic food webs may also pose an elevated risk to other mesopelagic-foraging predators and their offspring.

Genomics of post-bottleneck recovery in the northern elephant seal

Populations and species are threatened by human pressure, but their fate is variable. Some depleted populations, such as that of the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris), recover rapidly even when the surviving population was small. The northern elephant seal was hunted extensively and taken by collectors between the early 1800s and 1892, suffering an extreme population bottleneck as a consequence. Recovery was rapid and now there are over 200,000 individuals. We sequenced 260 modern and 8 historical northern elephant seal nuclear genomes to assess the impact of the population bottleneck on individual northern elephant seals and to better understand their recovery. Here we show that inbreeding, an increase in the frequency of alleles compromised by lost function, and allele frequency distortion, reduced the fitness of breeding males and females, as well as the performance of adult females on foraging migrations. We provide a detailed investigation of the impact of a severe bottleneck on fitness at the genomic level and report on the role of specific gene systems.

A reconstruction of the marine mammal harvest by the Real Compañía Marítima through the analysis of historical sources (AD 1790–1804)

Humans have altered marine ecosystems over very long-time scales and historical data is often needed to understand the true magnitude of human impacts. The Southwest Atlantic Ocean has a long history of large-scale removal of marine vertebrates due to whaling, sealing, and fishing in the past three centuries. Historical catch records are crucial in assessing the conservation status of these historically over-exploited populations and setting suitable recovery goals. However, several gaps in the history of exploitation of many populations limit our ability to judge recoveries success. This study examines the history of the Spanish fishing company, the Real Compañía Marítima (Royal Maritime Company), and reconstructs its catches of marine mammals in Patagonia and on the north coast of the Río de la Plata. The analysis of a wide range of historical sources reveals that, between the years 1790 and 1804, the Company extracted less than 100 southern right whales Eubalaena australis, some 200,000 South American fur seals Arctocephalus australis and South American sea lions Otaria flavescens, and a few southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina. Although the Company’s whale catch is negligible compared to that of other nations in the same whaling grounds, the amount of fur seals and sea lions removed from the ecosystem deserves attention. This historical survey provides us with the first estimate of the catches made by the Real Compañía Marítima. However, these figures only represent a small part of the extractive activities that took place in the region and further research is encouraged to assess the true dimension of human impacts on Southwest Atlantic ecosystems. The incorporation of retrospective data into ecological studies can be laborious and may have inherent biases, but it also provides valuable information for comprehending modern ecosystems and formulating appropriate conservation plans.

Historical ecology of pinnipeds of the northern coast of the San Jorge Gulf (central Patagonia, Argentina) since the Late-Holocene

The northern coast of the San Jorge Gulf, Atlantic Patagonia, is recognised as a marine biodiversity hot spot and is designated as a priority conservation area. Among marine mammals, three species of pinnipeds inhabit the region. While South American sea lions ( Otaria flavescens) have a higher abundance and a larger number of colonies than South American fur seals ( Arctocephalus australis), a few individuals of the Southern elephant seal ( Mirounga leonina) reside in the region. Nevertheless, little is known about the abundance and distribution of these pinnipeds before the 18th century, when various extractive activities became widespread, including the unregulated exploitation of furs and oil. This study aims to examine whether the distribution and relative abundance of ancient pinnipeds differ from present-day populations. To achieve this, we conducted inter-specific identification of pinniped bone remains coming from archaeological assemblages dated from 6000 to 600 14C years BP and reviewed historical sources to contrast these retrospective data with modern ecological literature. The results suggest changes over time in the relative abundances of species within the pinniped community. The relative abundance of fur seals was greater than or equal to that of sea lions in most Late-Holocene pinniped assemblages. Additionally, fur seals have been recorded in historical and Late-Holocene periods in places where they are currently very rare. These findings are consistent with the higher relative abundance of fur seals recorded in other archaeological sites along the Patagonian coast, suggesting that modern distribution and abundance have been heavily affected by commercial hunting. This study contributes to a better understanding of the nature and magnitude of the anthropic impact on the marine ecosystem of the northern coast of the San Jorge Gulf. It also provides historical baseline information to strengthen conservation policies and restoration efforts.

Understanding the feeding ecology of the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorynchus cepedianus) in Patagonia, Argentina

The broadnose sevengill shark (Notorynchus cepedianus) is classified as Vulnerable by the IUCN, and its population in the Southwest Atlantic is declining. Despite some progress in understanding the ecological requirements of the sevengill shark, there are still several information gaps. Essential aspects of its trophic ecology, such as main prey items or key feeding grounds, remain uncertain and this information is essential for developing effective conservation strategies. Stable isotopes and spontaneous regurgitations were analyzed to describe the trophic ecology of sevengill sharks within a marine protected area (MPA) of Península Valdés in Patagonia, Argentina. Analysis of spontaneous regurgitations revealed that the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) was the primary prey item (70%) for the sevengill shark, during abundance peaks of both species in the MPA. However, the stable isotope analysis indicated that the teleosts were the main prey item, and the overall contribution of the elephant seal to the diet of the sevengill shark was around 30%. In addition, the contribution of each prey group varied with the size of the individuals. The estimated trophic position was 4.43, placing the species among the apex predators of the region. This study confirmed the use of the MPA as an essential foraging ground and contributed to identifying its main prey items. Also, it reflects the need to expand conservation tools beyond this particular coastal protection.

Diminishing numbers of male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina Pinnipedia: Phocidae, Linnaeus, 1758) at the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica (1957–2022)

Abstract A proportion of the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) population that breeds in the Kerguelen Plateau region seasonally migrates between their natal sub-Antarctic islands and moult haul-out locations on the Antarctic coastline. Analyses of survey data collated for one moult location at the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica, showed that there had been no appreciable change in the timing (phenology) of maximum seal arrivals between 1974 and 2022; however, the maximum number of seals moulting at that site had declined by ~90% over the same time interval. Spatial analyses showed rates of population change were survey area dependent, as seal numbers decreased most rapidly at haul-out areas closest to the permanently occupied Davis Station, suggesting that a relationship exists between seal numbers and human activities. The range of potential factors that contribute to population change for southern elephant seals moulting at the Vestfold Hills includes changes in status at primary source populations, one of which has not been surveyed since the 1990s, and species relocation. Should numbers of southern elephant seals in the Vestfold Hills continue to decrease at the current average rate of change (-7.78 seals/year) the species could vanish from the area by c. 2040.

Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals.

Identifying important demographic drivers of population dynamics is fundamental for understanding life-history evolution and implementing effective conservation measures. Integrated population models (IPMs) coupled with transient life table response experiments (tLTREs) allow ecologists to quantify the contributions of demographic parameters to observed population change. While IPMs can estimate parameters that are not estimable using any data source alone, for example, immigration, the estimated contribution of such parameters to population change is prone to bias. Currently, it is unclear when robust conclusions can be drawn from them. We sought to understand the drivers of a rebounding southern elephant seal population on Marion Island using the IPM-tLTRE framework, applied to count and mark-recapture data on 9500 female seals over nearly 40 years. Given the uncertainty around IPM-tLTRE estimates of immigration, we also aimed to investigate the utility of simulation and sensitivity analyses as general tools for evaluating the robustness of conclusions obtained in this framework. Using a Bayesian IPM and tLTRE analysis, we quantified the contributions of survival, immigration and population structure to population growth. We assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to choice of multivariate priors on immigration and other vital rates. To do so we make a novel application of Gaussian process priors, in comparison with commonly used shrinkage priors. Using simulation, we assessed our model's ability to estimate the demographic contribution of immigration under different levels of temporal variance in immigration. The tLTRE analysis suggested that adult survival and immigration were the most important drivers of recent population growth. While the contribution of immigration was sensitive to prior choices, the estimate was consistently large. Furthermore, our simulation study validated the importance of immigration by showing that our estimate of its demographic contribution is unlikely to result as a biased overestimate. Our results highlight the connectivity between distant populations of southern elephant seals, illustrating that female dispersal can be important in regulating the abundance of local populations even when natal site fidelity is high. More generally, we demonstrate how robust ecological conclusions may be obtained about immigration from the IPM-tLTRE framework, by combining sensitivity analysis and simulation.

Offspring sex ratio increases with paternal reproductive success in a colony of southern elephant seals

AbstractIn polygynous species, male reproductive success is often determined by their ability to dominate female harems. Harem‐holders sire a disproportionate number of offspring. Male dominance tends to correlate with age, but intense competition and early male mortality limit most males from achieving high social status. To maximize reproductive success despite low rank, offspring sex ratio adjustment may have evolved, favoring the sex with higher fitness. If traits influencing dominance are heritable and confer reproductive advantages, we expect fathers with higher reproductive success to produce more sons, as they are more likely to become dominant. In contrast, subordinate males with lower success may benefit from siring more daughters. We tested this hypothesis on a colony of southern elephant seals breeding on the Kerguelen Archipelago. We used genetic markers to link the paternity of 540 pups to 58 breeding males. We found that the probability of siring a son increases from 43% to 54% with paternal relative reproductive success, supporting the offspring sex ratio adjustment hypothesis. Given that various factors influence sex ratio in a population, future studies should tease apart these ecological processes (e.g., paternal dominance, maternal condition, local density, or adult sex ratio) and investigate how they interact with each other.