Electrification Potential Research Articles

Towards Auto-Calibrated UBEM Using Readily Available, Underutilized Urban Data: A Case Study for Ithaca, NY

The shift toward urban decarbonization, which involves transitioning to heat pumps and integrating photovoltaic (PV) energy generation, poses substantial challenges to electricity grids in cities. Ithaca, NY, with its commitment to the Green New Deal, serves as a case study for cities confronted with these challenges. This paper explores how various building electrification scenarios might affect Ithaca's net-zero ambitions. We show that our reduced-order Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) approach can accurately predict building energy consumption and rooftop solar PV energy generation for the 6114 buildings in the City of Ithaca. Building on that, we present three increasingly ambitious decarbonization scenarios that offer a holistic perspective on Ithaca's future electrification potential. In automating the reconstruction of building geometry from readily available LiDAR data, along with automated BEM setup and calibration, our methodology offers a robust toolkit to plan holistic decarbonization efforts. We argue that our approach, which forecasts both UBEM and PV for all residential and commercial buildings within a single framework, provides insights that cannot be reached with siloed methods. In the future, we believe that the abundance of readily available urban data sets will allow us to transition our approach to other jurisdictions across the US.

Implications of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on the U.S. electric power sector

Climate change poses a global challenge, and the electric power sector, as a major greenhouse gas contributor, plays a central role in tackling and curbing its effects. Despite significant research on global and national future pathways, there is a need for further exploration into the application of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to understand sub-national impacts on the electric power sector. This study employs the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA) to analyze how climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development interact in the U.S. electric power sector at the state level. We developed four scenarios covering different levels of decarbonization efforts and socioeconomic development. Our research findings reveal a prevailing trend towards a less carbon-intensive U.S. electric sector, propelled by an expanding presence of natural gas and renewable energies in the energy mix. Such capital turnover leads to a significant reduction of overall CO2 emissions from the electric sector, albeit at a higher lifetime cost in particularly eastern states. The mitigation efforts also lead to overall decreased water withdrawal and increased water consumption in the electric sector, however, disparities in state-level responses are observed. While population growth predominantly shapes electricity generation, unique state-level electrification potential yields indirect population-electricity dynamics. The spatially heterogeneous response suggests complex trade-offs associated with reconciling climate mitigation objectives with local electricity demand and resource constraints. In sum, this research equips policymakers and stakeholders with invaluable insights to formulate mitigation strategies that align with the objective of the U.S. electric sector, both at a national and international level, while also catering to the unique characteristics of each state.

Accelerating Light-Duty Fleet Decarbonisation through Energy Efficiency Audits: Results and Methodology Assessment

The transport sector is responsible for 37% of the energy consumption in Portugal (70% of it due to road transportation), supplied almost completely by fossil fuels. Portugal must reduce these sector’s emissions by 98% to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, thus making transportation a crucial sector for a successful decarbonisation of the economy. This scenario sparked action at ADENE – the Portuguese Energy Agency to create MOVE+, an auditing methodology that incentivises and guides a broad group of stakeholders to act on the decarbonisation of mobility, starting with light duty and freight fleets. It comprises a framework to rate fleets on energy efficiency which enables regular implementation and monitoring of decarbonisation measures in areas such as vehicle technology, telematics, driver training, tyre selection, and maintenance. This paper shows that the application of the MOVE+ methodology helped identify an electrification potential of 24% on average per fleet, according to the Best-in-Class (whereas the analysed sample shows 20% of electrification). A multiple linear regression model validates the correlation between MOVE+ obtained scores, in the evaluated dimensions, and the fleet’s specific CO2 emissions. The methodology also allows us to assess that Portugal is lagging to meet the carbon neutrality target for the transport sector by 2050. Such assessment allows us to estimate that, regarding light-duty fleets, at the current pace zero emissions will only be reached by 2080, thus highlighting the need for public policy adjustments that push towards faster decarbonisation.

Analysis of electrification and its greenhouse gas reduction potential in the industrial sector of Korea using mixed methods

Carbon neutrality has heightened the necessity for deep decarbonization in the industrial sector, emphasizing the significance of ambitious mitigation measures, including system-level energy and material efficiency, carbon capture and utilization, electrification, and green hydrogen utilization. Electrification, particularly in the hard-to-abate industrial sector, emerges as a critical tool assuming the power sector's decarbonization. This study aims to evaluate Korea's industrial sector electrification potential and its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential by 2050. To achieve this, we employ a mixed-method approach, integrating quantitative methods, such as the Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure (IPFP) for data consistency, energy forecast, and elasticity of substitution models, along with a qualitative method involving energy experts through the Delphi technique. The results indicate an estimated 41% electrification potential for Korea's industrial sector by 2050, with a potential GHG reduction of approximately 26.3% compared to the Business-as-Usual emissions.

Electrification potential for heavy-duty vehicles in harsh climate conditions: A case study based technical feasibility assessment

Battery-electric heavy-duty vehicles are considered a potential solution to reduce emissions in freight transport and increase energy security. However, battery-electric trucks are not a one-fits-all solution due to current battery technology limitations and vast diversity in freight operations and vehicle categories. Although the literature available in electric truck feasibility provides an insightful overview of their potential, it does not fully cover the performance variations under adverse climate and technical conditions.This paper attempts to fill the gap in the literature by quantifying the impact of low temperatures, headwind, variable payload, and tail-lift use over different freight vehicles from a case study fleet in Iceland. NREL's FASTSim is the vehicle energy consumption model used for the analysis. The study also addresses on-route fast-charging, considering realistic non-linear charging rates and performance in low temperatures.The results showed that the range of the analyzed vehicles can experience a decrease of 41–47% under unfavorable conditions, compared to the estimated range under ideal conditions. Short-haul routes could be electrified even under the most challenging conditions, while regional routes might require some planification adjustments to reach 100% route electrification in tough conditions. On-route charging would be necessary to achieve full fleet electrification. In tough conditions, sprinter vans met 49% (85% with charging) of the analyzed routes, while trucks met 83% (90% with charging).The outcomes of this research support several UN Sustainable Development Goals (3, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13), and could be used to develop specific measures within the Icelandic 2020 Climate Action Plan. The methodology used is feasibly replicable for teams who wish to perform a similar analysis in different contexts.

Cost-Optimal Sector Integration and Energy Balancing Strategies for Reaching Carbon Neutrality

Sectoral integration will play a major role in the clean energy transition to increase the utilisation rates of available renewable energy sources (RES). Preliminary studies have shown that the decarbonisation of power generation can be reached through well-developed technical solutions such as the integration of hydro, wind, and solar energy. However, emissions in the buildings, transport, and industrial sectors remain stubbornly high. Therefore, the electrification of these sectors and interconnection through smart grids have been identified as promising future development trends to avoid the usage of fossil fuels. The TIMES optimisation model is used to evaluate the future cost-effective pathways for reaching carbon neutrality in the Latvian energy sector. The model includes both the end-use sectors such as transport, buildings, industry and agriculture and the energy sector with a well-developed database of existing and future RES and storage technologies. The modelling framework allows for identifying the cost-optimal future energy mix by considering the electrification potential of each sector. Therefore, it allows analysing of the impact of different policy strategies at sectoral integration levels and the necessity for additional energy storage capacities. The preliminary results show that one of regret-free solutions for reaching the energy efficiency targets in 2030 is the wide expanse of heat pump utilisation in residential buildings instead of inefficient biomass boilers. The building heat supply transformation also brings higher power consumption and interacts with the wider utilisation of wind power. In addition, sensitivity analyses have been performed to evaluate the impact of high uncertainties related to fuel costs, resource availability and other conditions.

Development of a Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Integration and Implementation (HEVII) Tool

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">As demand for consumer electric vehicles (EVs) has drastically increased in recent years, manufacturers have been working to bring heavy-duty EVs to market to compete with Class 6-8 diesel-powered trucks. Many high-profile companies have committed to begin electrifying their fleet operations, but have yet to implement EVs at scale due to their limited range, long charging times, sparse charging infrastructure, and lack of data from in-use operation. Thus far, EVs have been disproportionately implemented by larger fleets with more resources. To aid fleet operators, it is imperative to develop tools to evaluate the electrification potential of heavy-duty fleets. However, commercially available tools, designed mostly for light-duty vehicles, are inadequate for making electrification recommendations tailored to a fleet of heavy-duty vehicles. The main challenge is that light-duty tools do not estimate real-time vehicle mass, a factor that has a disproportionate impact on the energy consumption of large commercial vehicles. The Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Integration and Implementation (HEVII) tool advances the state of the art in evaluating electrification potential and infrastructure requirements for fleets of commercial vehicles. In this work, the HEVII tool is demonstrated with non-uniformly sampled telematics data from an existing fleet to assess the suitability for electrification of each individual vehicle, determine optimal locations for charging infrastructure to support a fleet of EVs and analyze associated costs. Payload mass is predicted using sparse ground-truth data for all input drive cycles and an initial data analysis is conducted to assess the characteristics driving behaviors and energy consumption of the fleet using an adaptable vehicle model. Battery size requirements are determined by applying a novel charger placement algorithm to maximize routes that are viable for EVs and balance time delays with infrastructure development costs. This work details and demonstrates the different aspects of the HEVII tool, presenting preliminary results from an example use case.</div></div>

An analysis of new electrification potential of final energy consumption in southern China under the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

Under the constraint of peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, the current status of the economy, social demography, energy consumption, industrial structure, energy intensity and power consumption in southern China is analyzed, the scenario analysis method is built, three policy scenarios affecting electrification under the constraint of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are designed for the analysis of the future power demand in southern China, and the implementation path of new electrification that can achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is proposed.

Cost-Optimal Policy Strategies for Reaching Energy Efficiency Targets and Carbon Neutrality

Abstract The TIMES Latvia optimization model was developed to evaluate cost-effective pathways for reaching energy efficiency targets in 2030 and carbon neutrality in the Latvian economy by 2050. The model includes both the end-use sectors such as transport, buildings, industry and agriculture and the energy sector, with a well-developed database of existing and future RES and storage technologies. The modelling framework allows to identify the cost-optimal future energy mix by considering the electrification potential of each sector. Therefore, it allows the analysing of the impact of different policy strategies on sectoral integration levels and the necessity for additional energy storage capacities. The results show that one of the optimal solutions for reaching the energy efficiency targets in 2030 is the wide expansion of heat pump utilization merged with ambitious building renovation policy to increase energy efficiency. The building heat supply transformation also brings higher power consumption and interacts with the wider utilization of wind power. Alternative pathway could rely on increased solar power installation for self-consumption coverage which shows lower costs than building energy efficiency increase.

Transition pathway for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060

<p indent="0mm">Faced with the pressure of global warming, China has pledged to peak its CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Realizing the carbon-neutral transition of the energy system under the contradiction between economic growth and CO₂ emission reduction is an urgent and realistic problem. This study proposes a methodology for constructing a carbon-neutral energy system that considers renewable energy, energy conservation, and electrification potential in the energy sector and emissions from industrial processes. Based on the proposed methodology, this study takes China’s energy system as an example and formulates a business-as-usual pathway, three low-carbon transition pathways according to the 2°C warming goal, 1.5°C warming goal, and the carbon-neutral goal to explore the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and the corresponding technical support and cost requirements. In terms of energy supply and technological applications, China’s energy system can realize all the emission-reduction goals by 2060 or even earlier with renewable energy sources and energy conservations pushed to the maximum constraints. The results show that the low-carbon transition can help improve the economy of the future energy system. Compared with the business-as-usual pathway, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways can reduce the energy system costs by 19.2% and 21.1%, respectively, in 2060. Despite the large-scale introduction of renewable and carbon capture technologies in the carbon-neutral pathway, its cost is only 86.4% of the business-as-usual pathway. In addition, this study discusses several key issues, including biomass use, cross-sectoral technologies, and carbon capture technology deployment. To sum up, the carbon-neutral energy system construction methodology proposed in this paper can be applied in any region to build low-carbon transition pathways for the local energy system and provide reliable and effective support to achieve the emission-reduction targets.

Electrification Potential of Fuel-Based Vehicles and Optimal Placing of Charging Infrastructure: A Large-Scale Vehicle-Telematics Approach

As apprehension grows over global warming and urban pollution, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are experiencing a rise in worldwide popularity. Yet, their market uptake has been slowed down due to high purchase prices and concerns over the limited battery range and the insufficient public charging infrastructure. This work uses a massive real-world dataset, containing the anonymized global positioning system (GPS) traces from a fleet of private vehicles, to quantitatively evaluate if range anxiety (i.e., the fear of being stranded due to EV’s limited range) is a rational concern. In particular, the fleet’s electrification potential is assessed by analyzing the driving patterns of more than 50000 vehicles over the course of an entire year. The results reveal the potential of BEVs, which could satisfy the range needs of much of the existing fuel-powered vehicle fleet with no alteration to the owners’ routines (except for overnight recharging). Furthermore, the mileage analysis is later used to pinpoint the so-called <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">eligible stops</i> (ESs), corresponding to real charging demand and opportunities. <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">ESs</i> are aggregated through clustering analysis, obtaining a ranking of potential charging station sites. Finally, we quantitatively evaluate the effects of the increasing dissemination of charging facilities on the vehicles’ EV-switch suitability.

Electrification potential of U.S. industrial boilers and assessment of the GHG emissions impact

Electrification is a key strategy for decarbonizing the industrial sector. Industrial process heating, which still relies heavily on fossil fuel combustion and accounts for the majority of sector wide GHG emissions, is a particularly attractive electrification target. Electrifying industrial boilers represents a cross-cutting opportunity for GHG emissions reductions, given their widespread use in most manufacturing industries. Yet, there are gaps in the understanding of the current population of conventional industrial boilers in the United States that preclude a characterization of boiler electrification's technical potential to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In this study, we develop an up-to-date dataset of the industrial boiler population in the U.S. and quantify the county-level electricity requirements and net changes in fuel use and GHG emissions under the current electric grid and theoretical future grid scenarios. Our results show an increase of 105 MMmtCO2e and 73 MMmtCO2e in GHG emissions from boiler electrification, with and without the replacement of byproduct fuels, respectively, under the current electric grid, and a reduction of 19 MMmtCO2e and 7 MMmtCO2e in GHG emissions under a future high renewables electric grid. GHG emissions savings are currently possible only in certain regions of the U.S. unless future grids are decarbonized. We also provide discussion that could be useful for policy makers and manufacturing facilities for advancing the electrification of industrial boilers in locations and industries toward fuel savings and GHG emissions reductions.

Estimating the potential of electric mobility in commercial transport considering the availability of charging infrastructure – A behavioural model analysis for the city of Hamburg

To address climate change, transport policy tries to accelerate the electrification of vehicles. The impact of policy measures taken is difficult to predict especially in areas like commercial passenger transport where few research exists. In this study we estimate the impact of higher availability of charging infrastructure on the electrification potential of vehicles used in commercial passenger transport. For Hamburg we estimate that the electrification potential could increase by about 35%. We base this analysis on a company survey on vehicle usage patterns in commercial passenger transport and a ranked choice model to quantify the relationship between company sectors and tour patterns. This enables us to estimate the impact on electrification potential for overall Hamburg. The methodological contribution of this paper is to demonstrate a statistically viable approach to extrapolate insights from a behavioural survey to an overall region in the context of commercial passenger transport.

Unlocking the UK Continental Shelf Electrification Potential for Offshore Oil and Gas Installations: A Power Grid Architecture Perspective

Most of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) oil and gas (OG) installations have traditionally adopted in situ power generation, which is not only inefficient but also generating about 70% of the offshore CO2 emissions. The offshore wind and energy storage technologies for deep water are developing at a fast pace, enabling great opportunities for the OG installations located in the North Sea. In this paper, a pathway for the UKCS offshore OG installations electrification is introduced. The aim is to provide different power architectures that facilitate the OG installations’ electrification, while benefiting from the existing and planned UK offshore wind power. Four hypothetical case studies (based on real data) were created, along the UKCS, where the corresponding power architectures were proposed. The selection of each architecture power component (e.g., transformers, converters and cables), as well as the transmission and distribution technology (e.g., AC or DC), is also provided and justified. Further, an overview cost estimation is carried out to predict the architecture capital cost. It is concluded that the four architectures can be mimicked not only along the UKCS but also worldwide, promoting the UKCS potential for a world-leading offshore energy hub and fostering the UK offshore wind-energy resources.

Sustainable process integration of electrification technologies with industrial energy systems

To mitigate CO2 emission, the utilization of renewable resources is expected to grow with the wide and active implementation of electrified energy systems. Process industry, one of the most energy-intensive sectors, is strongly demanded to keep up with the trend to improve sustainability. The application of Power-to-Heat technologies to industrial energy systems would bring enormous benefits to the environment, but a systematic design methodology to evaluate the feasibility of electrification in practice has not been fully discussed. This study proposes a framework to evaluate the feasibility of electrification based on Heat Integration. The cost-effective and/or energy-efficient technology is selected by analyzing different characteristics of several power-to-heat technologies, with which the implementation strategy of electrification is designed based on the electrification potential. Economics of electrified energy systems are evaluated, which is compared with conventional ones based on burning fossil fuels. A case study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed design methodology. From the results, it is indicated that the electrification with a heat pump and an electrode boiler is a promising strategy, while the introduction of an electric heater becomes economically viable at the 23% of considerable reduction in the cost of renewable electricity.

Operational Feasibility Assessment of Battery Electric Construction Equipment Based on In-Use Activity Data

Despite the significant progress in on-road vehicle electrification, the majority of construction equipment types are still using conventional diesel engines. Though there has been a steady flow of studies in this field, not all equipment types have yet been evaluated. This paper contributes to filling that data gap by analyzing real-world second-by-second activity data from 17 off-road vehicles across six equipment types to investigate their electrification potential. The collected data are used to determine real-world power and torque demands—which are then used to select currently available electric motors suited for electrification of these types of equipment. Required battery sizes for battery electric operation are also calculated considering recorded energy demands, and battery sizes are standardized across equipment types for realistic implementation. The resulting battery electric systems are simulated to determine their effectiveness in fulfilling real-world activity demands. The results show that four of the six types can be electrified to a significant extent using battery electric powertrains with a single-motor set-up, while the remaining two types are more suitable for hybridization because of their high energy needs.

Road Freight Transport Electrification Potential by Using Battery Electric Trucks in Finland and Switzerland

Medium and heavy-duty battery electric trucks (BETs) may play a key role in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road freight transport. However, technological challenges such as limited range and cargo carrying capacity as well as the required charging time need to be efficiently addressed before the large-scale adoption of BETs. In this study, we apply a geospatial data analysis approach by using a battery electric vehicle potential (BEVPO) model with the datasets of road freight transport surveys for analyzing the potential of large-scale BET adoption in Finland and Switzerland for trucks with gross vehicle weight (GVW) of over 3.5 t. Our results show that trucks with payload capacities up to 30 t have the most potential for electrification by relying on the currently available battery and plug-in charging technology, with 93% (55% tkm) and 89% (84% tkm) trip coverage in Finland and Switzerland, respectively. Electric road systems (ERSs) would be essential for covering 51% trips (41% tkm) of heavy-duty trucks heavier than 30 t in Finland. Furthermore, range-extender technology could improve the trip electrification potential by 3–10 percentage points (4–12 percentage points of tkm).

The CO2 reduction potential for the European industry via direct electrification of heat supply (power-to-heat)

The decarbonisation of industry is a bottleneck for the EU’s 2050 target of climate neutrality. Replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon electricity is at the core of this challenge; however, the aggregate electrification potential and resulting system-wide CO2 reductions for diverse industrial processes are unknown. Here, we present the results from a comprehensive bottom-up analysis of the energy use in 11 industrial sectors (accounting for 92% of Europe’s industry CO2 emissions), and estimate the technological potential for industry electrification in three stages. Seventy-eight per cent of the energy demand is electrifiable with technologies that are already established, while 99% electrification can be achieved with the addition of technologies currently under development. Such a deep electrification reduces CO2 emissions already based on the carbon intensity of today’s electricity (∼300 gCO2 kWhel−1). With an increasing decarbonisation of the power sector IEA: 12 gCO2 kWhel−1 in 2050), electrification could cut CO2 emissions by 78%, and almost entirely abate the energy-related CO2 emissions, reducing the industry bottleneck to only residual process emissions. Despite its decarbonisation potential, the extent to which direct electrification will be deployed in industry remains uncertain and depends on the relative cost of electric technologies compared to other low-carbon options.

Can Charging Infrastructure Used Only by Electric Taxis Be Profitable? A Case Study From Karlsruhe, Germany

Electric vehicles are a promising instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other local pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides. Especially the taxi sector is a promising field of application. First, their high driving distances are necessary for electric vehicles to economize against conventional vehicles. Second, taxis are operated predominantly in city centers, where the pressure to reduce local emissions is greatest. However, while the electrification potential of taxi fleets has gained great attention in literature, the question of whether charging infrastructure can be profitable if only used by taxis has not been answered yet. To answer this question, we analyze 161 taxis in Karlsruhe, Germany. We find that a high share of electric taxis would come at lower cost than their diesel counterparts. Thus, a 25–45% share of taxi driving could be electrified, if only the taxi user perspective would be taken into account. However, while ten charging sites would be necessary to do so, only one charging site could be refinanced through exclusive taxi use. Consequently, the electrification potential would fall to about 3%, if only this one profitable charging site was built. Yet, in the future, electric driving will become cheaper. In 2025, already 55% electrification potential would be possible, given that both electric driving and charging infrastructure operation would be profitable. Altogether, while currently taxi charging infrastructure would require public funding or other business models, in the medium to long term, an exclusive use by taxis would be sufficient.

A Survey on Energy Usage and Electrification Potential in Industrial Sectors toward Shaping Future Socio-economic Visions

A Survey on Energy Usage and Electrification Potential in Industrial Sectors toward Shaping Future Socio-economic Visions