Analysis of electrification and its greenhouse gas reduction potential in the industrial sector of Korea using mixed methods

Abstract

Carbon neutrality has heightened the necessity for deep decarbonization in the industrial sector, emphasizing the significance of ambitious mitigation measures, including system-level energy and material efficiency, carbon capture and utilization, electrification, and green hydrogen utilization. Electrification, particularly in the hard-to-abate industrial sector, emerges as a critical tool assuming the power sector's decarbonization. This study aims to evaluate Korea's industrial sector electrification potential and its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential by 2050. To achieve this, we employ a mixed-method approach, integrating quantitative methods, such as the Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure (IPFP) for data consistency, energy forecast, and elasticity of substitution models, along with a qualitative method involving energy experts through the Delphi technique. The results indicate an estimated 41% electrification potential for Korea's industrial sector by 2050, with a potential GHG reduction of approximately 26.3% compared to the Business-as-Usual emissions.