Electric Vehicles In California Research Articles

Emissions of electric vehicles in California’s transition to carbon neutrality

California has a many activities targeting specific sectors to mitigate climate change. This study models several scenarios of future electric vehicle emissions in the state and explores untapped policy opportunities for interactions between sectors, specifically between the transportation and electricity grid. As electric vehicles become more prevalent, their impact on the electricity grid is directly related to the aggregate patterns of vehicle charging—even without vehicle-to-grid services, shifting of charging patterns can be a potentially important resource to alleviate issues such as renewable intermittency. This study involved the creation of a model to predict the potential emissions benefits of managed vs. unmanaged charging. The study finds that the lion’s share of emissions reduction in the light-duty transportation sector in California comes from electrification, with a cumulative 1 billion tons of CO2 reduction through 2045. This figure represents a decrease of about 4 tons CO2/capita/year from the average operation of Californian passenger vehicles in 2020 to about 40 kg CO2/capita/year in 2045. Decarbonization of the current grid leads to an additional savings of 125 million tons of CO2 over the same time-period. As the state moves towards these objectives through existing (and potential future) policies, additional policies to exploit synergies between transportation electrification and grid decarbonization could reduce cumulative emissions by another 10 million tons of CO2.

Estimating the travel demand impacts of semi automated vehicles

In this study we investigate changes in travel due to level 2 automation among owners of electric vehicles in California. Level 2 automation has the potential to reduce driver fatigue and make driving less stressful which could mean drivers choose to travel more. We use questionnaire survey data to investigate changes to long distance travel and annual vehicle miles travelled (VMT) due to automation. Results show those who report doing more long-distance travel because of automation are younger; have a lower household income; live in urban areas; own a longer-range electric vehicle; use automation in a variety of conditions; and have pro-technology attitudes and prefer outdoor lifestyles. We use propensity score matching to investigate whether automation leads to an increase in annual VMT. The results of this show 4059–4971 more miles per year among users of level 2 automation compared to owners of similar vehicles without automation.

Distribution grid impacts of electric vehicles: A California case study

SummaryCalifornia has adopted a substantial number of electric vehicles over the last decade but there are many challenges associated with the electrification of vehicles, including how they interact with the electricity grid. We employ real-world feeder circuit level data in California from PG&E to measure the capacity of local feeders. We model the adoption of electric vehicles down to the census block and take advantage of real-world vehicle charging data to simulate the future loading on circuits throughout Northern California. In our highest adoption scenario of 6 million electric vehicles in California, we find that across PG&E's service territory, 443 circuits will require upgrades (nearly 20% of all circuits) and merely 88 of these feeders have planned upgrades in the future. The costs of these feeders are an essential part of a utility's planning process, and this work speaks to the importance of electric vehicles on local distribution networks.

Life-Cycle Carbon Emissions and Energy Implications of High Penetration of Photovoltaics and Electric Vehicles in California

California has set two ambitious targets aimed at achieving a high level of decarbonization in the coming decades, namely (i) to generate 60% and 100% of its electricity using renewable energy (RE) technologies, respectively, by 2030 and by 2045, and (ii) introducing at least 5 million zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030, as a first step towards all new vehicles being ZEVs by 2035. In addition, in California, photovoltaics (PVs) coupled with lithium-ion battery (LIB) storage and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are, respectively, the most promising candidates for new RE installations and new ZEVs, respectively. However, concerns have been voiced about how meeting both targets at the same time could potentially negatively affect the electricity grid’s stability, and hence also its overall energy and carbon performance. This paper addresses those concerns by presenting a thorough life-cycle carbon emission and energy analysis based on an original grid balancing model that uses a combination of historical hourly dispatch and demand data and future projections of hourly demand for BEV charging. Five different scenarios are assessed, and the results unequivocally indicate that a future 80% RE grid mix in California is not only able to cope with the increased demand caused by BEVs, but it can do so with low carbon emissions (<110 g CO2-eq/kWh) and satisfactory net energy returns (EROIPE-eq = 12–16).

Expanding access to electric vehicles in California’s low-income communities

In September 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced an ambitious executive order requiring all new passenger vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emission by 2035 (California Governor 2020). This action recognizes that the growing threats of climate change and local air pollution necessitate a rapid transition away from traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. In California, disadvantaged populations in particular face significant barriers, including financing and charging, to electric vehicle (EV) adoption. For the state to meet its clean energy goals, it must include these communities in a more just transition to widespread use of EVs. This should include avenues of support such as updating state building codes for multi-unit dwellings, where almost half of all Californians live. Charging site access must be increased through curbside infrastructure expansion and institution of statewide EV charger rebates. Finally, increased access to vehicles themselves should be facilitated by expanding incentives and formats for EV sharing programs.

Who is buying electric vehicles in California? Characterising early adopter heterogeneity and forecasting market diffusion

The successful market entry of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is contingent on them being adopted by consumers, the first of which will be early adopters. The current understanding of these early adopters is based on small samples of PEV buyers gathered at one point in time. Here we present multi-year (2012–2017) questionnaire survey data on the socio-demographic profile of 11,037 PEV adopters in California. Latent class cluster analysis reveals four heterogeneous groups of PEV buyers. 49% are High income families, 26% Mid/high income old families, 20% Mid/high income young families, and about 5% are Middle income renters. Using the latent classes as input factors in Bass diffusion models we show that high income families may not continue to be the largest group of PEV adopters, while high income families are 49% of the PEV market today, they only represent 3.6% of California households. For market growth to continue the mid/high- and middle-income clusters need to begin adopting PEVs in greater numbers than they are doing today. Policymakers will need to consider the different needs these consumers have for infrastructure and incentives compared to high income families.

Uncovering early adopter’s perceptions and purchase intentions of automated vehicles: Insights from early adopters of electric vehicles in California

Research on vehicle automation is one of the most current topics in transportation. Some of the questions plaguing the research community include design, cost, and adoption. Many of these questions will remain unanswered until automated vehicles are available to the consumer. In this study, we use a sample of California new electric vehicle buyers to understand if and how current adopters of new vehicle technologies will adopt automated vehicles. We find that many respondents are interested in purchasing an automated vehicle but indicate that they only have average knowledge of the technology. Using an ordinal logit model, we model the interest in purchasing a fully-automated vehicle and find that younger men who purchase higher cost vehicles are more interested in purchasing a fully-automated vehicle. Above all else, those who perceive automated vehicles as being safer than non-automated vehicles have an interest in purchasing an automated vehicle.

Symbolism, signs, and accounts of electric vehicles in California

Conceptual frameworks regarding the spread of new ideas and products through a relevant social group posit communication is necessary between those few group members who are first to act upon the new idea or product and the many more potential later actors. In the case of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), achieving potential social goals regarding human health, climate, air quality and energy requires many more households become PEV owners and users than have so far. Workshops were convened with PEV owners and owners of internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles (collectively, non-PEVs) in three regions throughout California representing different levels of PEV sales and charging infrastructure deployment. Participants guided the creation of their workshop’s agenda: non-PEV owners stated their questions about PEVs; PEV owners added more they wanted to tell about PEVs and about themselves becoming and being PEV owners. In the subsequent conversations, PEV owners constructed “accounts”—both in the sense of (informally) tallying the costs of buying a PEV and in the sense of telling a story of their lives with PEVs. Their storytelling conveyed the signs of PEVs: how PEVs, charging infrastructure, and incentives are (to PEV owners) an obvious suite of symbols and what those symbols mean (to PEV owners). In effect, the PEV owners teach the owners of non-PEVs a new symbol system and in doing so enhance the non-PEV owners’ ability to see, hear, and interpret the signs of PEVs. Routinely, but not universally, among the non-PEV owners learning the symbol system of PEVs produces more positive evaluations of PEVs.

Future costs of fuel cell electric vehicles in California using a learning rate approach

Many countries and regions of the world are pursuing aggressive decarbonization policies in the transportation sector aiming to sharply reduce the sales of conventional gasoline and diesel-powered internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), have zero tailpipe emissions, but still can be considerably more expensive than ICEVs, which is one key factor hampering their wide-scale adoption. Still, many decarbonization roadmaps and plans call for a large ramp up of ZEVs in coming years. For example, the International Energy Agency's aggressive 2DS high H2 scenario estimates 11 M BEVs and 4 M FCEVs sold in 2030 and California has also set aggressive sales targets under its ZEV Mandate. This paper provides a detailed life cycle cost analysis comparison for FCEV versus other vehicle technologies, assuming these international adoption scenarios are implemented using a learning rate approach. Results show that the fuel cell system is the key factor in making FCEV life cycle costs comparable to ICEV costs. With an 18% learning rate, FCEVs are estimated to be cost competitive with ICEVs by 2025, but with an 8% learning rate, this cost-competitive point is pushed out almost 25 years.

Plug-In Electric Vehicles in California

California's emissions reduction goals for criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) have encouraged policies that support plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). This paper explores current and planned policies that promote PEVs, potential emissions benefits from PEV adoption in California by 2020, and future policy directions. The reviewed policies include the zero-emission vehicle regulations, the low-carbon fuel standard, and the clean car standards, which all require GHG reductions. Policies prompted by the California Public Utilities Commission Alternative-Fueled Vehicle Rulemaking decision and existing and planned PEV incentive programs are among the forthcoming and expected policies that are discussed. An analysis was conducted to estimate and to value GHG and CAP emissions reductions from PEVs in California by 2020. Results of this analysis show that the reduction in tailpipe emissions dominate any added power plant emissions and value the benefits at $750 to $1,500 per vehicle in an expected PEV penetration scenario (where PEVs are predominantly plug-in hybrid vehicles) and $1,000 to $2,500 per vehicle in an aggressive penetration scenario (in which battery electric vehicles comprise one-third of all PEVs). The assignment of monetary value to benefits provided a basis for justifying future PEV subsidy programs. The policy review and emissions analysis set the stage for a discussion of California's PEV-related policy outlook, including possible policy directions that would coordinate PEV-related programs, distinguish electric fuel from electricity used for other purposes, and provide stable, long-term incentives for PEV deployment.

Gales of creative destruction and the opportunistic incumbent: The case of electric vehicles in California

This paper explores the introduction of electric vehicles in response to Californian regulatory pressures as an example of a disruptive technology. The central thesis is that this disruption may open the automobile market to new entrants but only if they collaborate with incumbent automobile manufacturers. This appears to support Schumpeter's argument that large incumbent firms possess innovation advantages over the small entrepreneurial entrant. However, these innovatory advantages lie in the downstream complementary assets required for success in the automobile market.

ADAPTING INTERACTIVE STATED RESPONSE TECHNIQUES TO A SELF-COMPLETION SURVEY.

We report here on how we adapted Interactive Stated Response Methods to use in a self-completion survey of 454 California households to measure the market for electric vehicles in California. Electric vehicles are a novel product and have many features unfamiliar to consumers, in particular their home recharging capability and limited range. Reflexive techniques were designed to draw households into a deeper exploration of the lifestyle implications of electric vehicles than can be done in more typical self-completion surveys, and to stimulate key decision processes previously observed in detailed gaming interviews with 51 households. Reflexive self-completion techniques provide a middle course between typical large sample quantitative surveys and small sample, detailed gaming interviews. One of the benefits of the more intensive techniques was that participants reported finding the surveys interesting and return rates were high for a self-completion approach – over sixty percent. We review previous transportation and sociological methods which inspired our design, describe the design goals and features of our research, and summarize research results pertinent to testing the validity of our approach.

Forecasting the market for electric vehicles in California : Segal, Robin, Ph.D. University of Pennsylvania, 1994. 224 pp. Supervisor: Paul Kleindorfer

Forecasting the market for electric vehicles in California : Segal, Robin, Ph.D. University of Pennsylvania, 1994. 224 pp. Supervisor: Paul Kleindorfer

Forecasting the Market for Electric Vehicles in California Using Conjoint Analysis

Beginning in 1998 a percentage of large auto companies' sales in California must include zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which at this time are synonymous with electric vehicles. Data on consumer values and the level of consumer acceptance for alternative fuel vehicles are necessary to determine the practicality of the State's policy. This paper presents the results of aforecast for alternative fuel vehicle purchases in California. This forecast uses conjoint analysis, a multi-attribute utility market forecast methodology developed within the field of marketing research. The forecast yields several types of results, including market simulations of the alternative fuel vehicle market, relative preferences among vehicle attributes, and the identification of market segments most likely to purchase each type of vehicle. The research suggests a market for electric vehicles too small to support California's ZEVsales mandate, and a very large market for natural gas vehicles. This paper concludes with a discussion of automobile and electric utility industry interests with regard to these forecast market consequences.

Emission Impacts of Electric Vehicles

Alternative vehicular fuels are proposed as a strategy to reduce urban air pollution. In this paper, we analyze the emission impacts of electric vehicles in California for two target years, 1995 and 2010. We consider a range of assumptions regarding electricity consumption of electric vehicles, emission control technologies for power plants, and the mix of primary energy sources for electricity generation. We find that, relative to continued use of gasoline-powered vehicles, the use of electric vehicles would dramatically and unequivocally reduce carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. Under most conditions, nitrogen oxide emissions would decrease moderately. Sulfur oxide and particulate emissions would increase or slightly decrease. Because other areas of the United States tend to use more coal in electricity generation and have less stringent emission controls on power plants, electric vehicles may have less emission reduction benefits outside California.