Electoral Victory Research Articles

Analysis of Electability, Capacity, Campaign Resources on the Chances of Elected Public Officials in the General Election Democracy Party

This research delves into the multifaceted landscape of electoral success by examining the intertwined influences of electability, capacity, and campaign resources on the performance of public officials from the Democracy party. By adopting a multidimensional approach, this study seeks to contribute to the understanding of how these factors interact and shape candidates' outcomes in general elections. Through a combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, this research uncovers intriguing patterns in the electoral arena. Likability emerges as a powerful driver of voter choices, showcasing a robust positive correlation between candidates' likability scores and their electoral success. This underscores the significance of personal connection and emotional resonance in swaying voter decisions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the study finds no significant correlation between candidate capacity attributes and electoral outcomes. While capacity remains valued, its impact appears contingent on its alignment with other factors such as likability and strategic resource allocation. This challenges traditional notions of experience as the primary determiner of electoral victory. The research further reveals a moderate positive correlation between effective campaign resource allocation and electoral success. Candidates who judiciously allocate resources, particularly in media coverage and social media engagement, tend to achieve better outcomes. This highlights the strategic importance of resource optimization in influencing voter perceptions and preferences. These findings provide a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between electability, capacity, and campaign resources in the context of the Democracy party's electoral campaigns. The implications extend to strategic decision-making for the party, as well as contributing to the broader discourse on electoral dynamics and democratic representation. Looking ahead, this research suggests avenues for further exploration, inviting future studies to consider cross-cultural comparisons, technology's role, and the evolving nature of voter behavior in shaping electoral outcomes

Sampling Survey Design Presidential Election Quick Count Sumatera Island

The number of TPS on the island of Sumatra is very large, in order to save time and money in conducting surveys, a sampling survey design was created. The purpose of this study is to predict the results of the presidential election on the island of Sumatra. The TPS sample frame was obtained in four stages where each stage used a sampling technique, namely the first and second stages used stratified random sampling, the third stage used systematic random sampling, and the last used clusters. The results obtained are with different TPS sample sizes showing the same results. The victory in the presidential election on the island of Sumatra was won by candidate pair number two. Then compared with the overall TPS population in Sumatra. Based on the population, the second candidate pair is also superior. So it can be concluded that the use of a survey sampling design in this study is appropriate in predicting the results of the elected president election.

Lula ha vinto, Bolsonaro non è sconfitto

The electoral victory of Lula Inácio da Silva in Brazil consolidates the affirmation of a new progressive wave in the Latin American region. However, left-wing governments will have to face serious constraints, between the need to find agreements with the more moderate parliamentary forces and the aggressiveness of the neo-conservative right, starting with Bolsonarism.

The Unfolding Illiberalism in Hungary

Abstract The emerging literature on illiberalisms offers a framework for detecting whether or not a special Hungarian illiberalism has been unfolding. Over the last 12 years, Hungary’s former liberal constitutionalist nature has been changed to illiberal constitutionalism. This transformation of the constitutional system recently culminated with the fourth consecutive electoral victory of Viktor Orbán in April 2022. Nevertheless, the possible ideological nature of Orbán’s regime has been understudied so far. Drawing on some newly published literature on illiberalisms, I claim that changes in electoral law (2014), the revised approach to the relationship between EU law and domestic law (2016 and 2021), and identity rights (2013, 2019–2020), along with the preceding political narratives, can be viewed as seeds from which a special, state-driven illiberalism has been growing in Hungary. If it is so, it could be concluded that Hungarian illiberalism is based on and the result of two factors: i) the translation of illiberal speech into the language of the law, and ii) the creation of intertwined identities for the constitution, the state, and citizens, which are based on (ethno)nationalism, sovereigntism, traditionalism and heteronormativity against mainly EU obligations and Western values.

The Success of Transgenders In The Election Process For Public Officials: A Public Policy Reform In Indonesia

This study aimed to examine transgender people's success in Indonesia's election for public officials. This victory is the first that happened in the country’s public officials election. As transgenders face discriminative acts which impede their public opportunities, it is interesting to investigate the factors contributing to this election victory. This is a public policy reform in Indonesia. This present study incorporated a focus group discussion (FGD) approach and in-depth interviews. Thirty-two key informants were selected, followed by document reviews. The results showed that the transgender success in elections for public officials is due to utilizing the shift in the heteronormative habitus in society, the possessed capital, and the social domain by building relationships and communication between organizations and institutions. This study contributes to empirical evidence that transgender people could win the election for public officials in a society that firmly holds the values of first and second or male and female gender identity. Practically, it provides input to policymakers to make requirements as public officials limited to men and women and also include transgender as a third gender identity.

The creation of high self-esteem as a voting incentive

“The statesman’s task is to hear God’s footsteps marching through history, and to try and catch on to His coattails as He marches past” (Otto von Bismarck). Populist movements all across the globe somehow managed to catch it. Additionally, this happens in the most highly advanced and well established democracies of the world. What is even more intriguing is that the explanatory power of classical variables to account for this dynamics seems limited. On the other hand the role of emotions and the constructivist power of the mind by which they are created prove to be enormously insightful. Despite those observations there exists no systematic approach to the affective dimension. In contrast to investigations, that mainly focus on one single emotion, such as the politics of fear, here the interplay of the whole emotional game is regarded key to uncover the unseen, but felt reality underneath: The analysis reveals that the emotional negativity is mainly generated as a means to an end, namely to create at the same time a positive antidote and remedy. The strongest common denominator of this emotional logic is the technique of Altercasting, whereby the negativity is projected onto alter while what is positive is used to construct auto-affirmative identity-concepts of ego. This in turn led to the conclusion that self-esteem, which is hardly ever analyzed in these contexts, lies at the heart of the emotional constellation. Populist voters are therefore not primarily seen as opponents to democracy, but much more as seekers of a positive self-concept. Therefore the democratic system´s diminuition could be understood as a collateral damage to something much deeper seated in the human psyche. The case study chosen here is the PiS party´s election victory in 2016, which, on the abstract level of rhetorical meta-frames, is regarded as a pars pro toto for what is observed globally.

Basking in Their Glory? Expressive Partisanship among People of Color Before and After the 2020 US Election

AbstractAs the number of people of color (PoC) grows in the United States, a key question is how partisanship will develop among this important electoral group. Yet many open questions remain about PoC partisanship, due to limited availability of panel data, a lack of sensitive instrumentation, and small samples of PoC in most public opinion surveys. This brief report leverages a unique panel of African American (N = 650) and Latino (N = 650) eligible voters, before and after the 2020 Presidential Election between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. Using measures that tap expressive partisan, racial, and national identity attachments, we find that Biden’s electoral victory significantly intensified partisan identity among his Democratic PoC supporters, relative to PoC who were not Democrats and supported Trump. We do not find significant changes in racial or national identities. Our results advance research on PoC’s partisanship.

Postawa Francji i jej belgijskiej sojuszniczki wobec wojny polsko-bolszewickiej

The Stance of France and Belgium Toward the Polish-Bolshevik War The article is an attempt to underline the difference in the conduct of foreign policy by two allied countries. One of them – France, had the opinion of the most powerful state in Europe after World War I, and the other – Belgium, was a small country that decided to abandon its neutrality (imposed by the great powers in 1839). Such an alliance, salutary for strengthening the security guarantees towards the former occupant, brought with it fears of domination and instrumental treatment. In matters of eastern policy, both countries were concerned about the loss of numerous investments and capital investments in tsarist Russia. It was through this prism that the Polish-Bolshevik war was assessed. The second factor that distinguished the two countries in their approach to the war was the different composition of the government. While in France the electoral victory of the National Bloc facilitated the conduct of politics, the government of catholic-socialist coalition in Belgium faced serious obstacles from the socialists, which was manifested in the decision concerning the transit of weapons to Poland. French aid in the form of weapons supplies and support for Poland from the diplomatic side led to an alliance with Poland. Belgium took advantage of the end of the war to establish, above all, economic cooperation.

Mahathir Mohamad in Public Policy and Politics of Malaysia

This article deals with the political and social achievements, but also the shortcomings of Mahathir Mohamad as the long-term prime minister of Malaysia. Based on a thorough and critical literature review the authors discuss first Mahathir’s reaction to the financial crisis in 1997/98 and the upcoming reformasi movement. Then, they analyze the conditions for the re-emergence of Mahathir as opposition leader in the mid-2010s and his role in the surprising election victory of the Pakatan Harapan coalition in 2018. Mahathir, a charismatic leader in Malaysia during the 1980s and 1990s, has contributed an important role in the development and change of politics in Malaysia. The victory of the opposition coalition in the 2018 election would be hardly possible without him. His political comeback prior to the election made headlines in Malaysian media and raised high hopes for a more democratic Malaysia.

The Roots of Populism: Neoliberalism and Working-Class Lives

The Roots of Populism: Neoliberalism and Working-Class Lives

Preparing for progressive change from opposition

Preparing for progressive change from opposition

The task ahead for Labour if it came to power

The task ahead for Labour if it came to power

Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism

Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism

Strategies Employed in Managing Inter-ethnic Conflicts Occasioned by National Elections in Nakuru County between 1992 and 2017

Wars and conflicts decide political boundaries, move populations around the world, define political debates, and generally affect just about everything in our societies. Violence is widespread and can be tapped for various reasons, including but not exclusively to election victory. Since the inception of the multiparty system in 1992, there has been a highly volatile political environment in regions with multiple ethnic compositions. The study sought to evaluate the strategies employed in the management of inter-ethnic conflicts occasioned by national elections in Nakuru County, Kenya, between 1992 and 2017. The study was anchored on Democratic theory. The study adopted a descriptive research design. This study targeted the household heads of Kuresoi North and Molo sub-counties. The study population included: government officials, security personnel, CSOs officials, opinion leaders, religious leaders, and youth group representatives. A total sample of 427 was used. Data collection tools adopted were questionnaires, FGDs, and interview guides. The study employed both probability and non-probability sampling techniques. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS), and results were presented in the form of charts, graphs, and tables for quantitative data and in the form of narrative reports and verbatim quotations for qualitative data. The study concluded that the state, which is the lead agency in conflict management, has shifted from macro-level focus to micro-level intervention through local government institutions.

I’m just trying to fill my kids up: parents’ pre-emptive (re)construction of identities amidst rising anti-Muslim rhetoric in the United States

ABSTRACT This qualitative study examines 16 Muslim parents’ communication with their children after Donald Trump’s electoral victory and amidst increasing Islamophobic and anti-Muslim rhetoric in the United States. Our analysis highlights communication interactions, informed by participants’ perceived demonization of Muslims in media and political discourses, intended to counter negative stereotypes and cultivate strength, confidence, and belonging in their children. Drawing on cultural identity theory, we theorize pre-emptive avowals and ascriptions to describe participants’ communication labor to cultivate resistance in their children to Islamophobia and various forms of racism. We conclude by considering unique and intersectional communication labor in minoritized families and discussing directions for future research.

Ill-grounded hope and desperation as drivers of the consumption of disinformation.

The continued consumption of disinformation negatively affects the social order and public health. The lack of critical thinking and reflection are among the most commonly cited explanation for the continuous consumption of disinformation by individuals and society.1 This paper offers an alternative factor affecting the pervasive consumption of disinformation. It posits that ill-grounded hope amid public desperation drives the consumption of disinformation. In the USA, disinformation has led to the attack on Capitol Hill in January 2021, where protesters stormed the Congress in a bid to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s election victory.1,2 In the Philippines, it has led to the killing of a former government official by a social media influencer.1,3 Wherein, the social media influencer expected the liberation of his town from decades of corruption, illegal drug trade and poor services by killing the official.1,3 Common to both events, the consumption of disinformation and their consequential actions were driven by hopes of fulfilling their aspirations and addressing the desperation of their social context. The protesters were desperate about the election results and, thereby, yielded to disinformation that offered them the hope of achieving their desired election results.2 Similarly, the social media influencer’s action was driven by unsubstantiated claims that the government official was involved in government corruption and poverty in his hometown.3

Strategies Employed In Managing Inter-Ethnic Conflicts Occasioned By National Elections in Nakuru County between 1992 And 2017

Wars and conflicts decide political boundaries, move populations around the world, define political debates, and generally affect just about everything in our societies. Violence is widespread and can be tapped for a variety of reasons, including but not exclusively, election victory. Since the inception of multiparty system in 1992, there has been high volatile political environment in regions that have multiple ethnic composition. The study sought to evaluate the strategies employed in the management of inter-ethnic conflicts occasioned by national elections in Nakuru County, Kenya between 1992 and 2017. The study was anchored on Democratic theory. The study adopted a descriptive research design. This study targeted the house hold heads of Kuresoi North and Molo sub-counties. The study population included government officials, security personnel, CSOs officials, opinion leaders, religious leaders and youth group representatives. A total sample of 427 was used. Data collection tools adopted were questionnaire, FGDs and interview guides. The study employed both probability and non-probability sampling techniques. Data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) and results presented in form of charts, graphs, and tables for quantitative data and in narrative reports and verbatim quotations for qualitative data, the study concluded that the state which is the lead agency in conflict management has shifted from macro-level focus to micro-level intervention through local government institutions.

Understanding the crisis of New Municipalism in Spain: The struggle for urban regime power in A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela

New municipalism in Spain arose from a major political wave, now in a period of crisis and electoral retreat. This paper applies a regime-theoretic framework to analyse new municipalist governance in two smaller city cases: A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela. It argues that whilst new municipalist electoral victories inaugurated a crisis for established regimes, the crucial weakness was that they did not consolidate new urban regimes. Municipalists faced severe governability challenges linked to the enduring power of older urban regimes. The paper suggests that this is explained by problems in establishing regime incumbency, the consolidation of the necessary governing capacity by a resource coalition to deliver its agenda and succeed politically. Although established regimes were weakened enough to lose elections, they maintained considerable capacity to constrain the municipalist project and shape urban governance, a significant degree of incumbency. This ultimately enabled them to recover office in 2019. We argue that a critical regime-theoretical perspective assists in understanding the wider crisis of Spanish municipalism and the multi-scalar struggle for hegemony as it plays out in the local state arena.

Gospodarstvo ili povijest: preferencije hrvatskih birača na parlamentarnim izborima 2016. godine

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of election victory in the Republic of Croatia. The main hypothesis of the paper is that in the Republic of Croatia the events of the 1990s, i.e., the Homeland War, had a stronger impact on the winners of the parliamentary elections in terms of the economic performance of the local self-government units (LSGs). Due to the availability of data, we focus on the 2016 parliamentary elections, and we model the victory of the two leading parties in Croatia – the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) – at the level of LSG. We develop a logistic regression model with the variable "election victory" at the LSG level as a dependent variable explained by the following variables: economic development at the LSG level, Homeland War covered LSGs, transparency of LSG budgets, election turnout, and government budget support to the LSGs. The results show that certain commonly accepted opinions, such as that voters in more economically developed LSGs vote more for the SDP on average, and that voters in war-affected LSGs vote more for the HDZ on average, have empirical confirmation.

From austerity to Brexit: the failed populist moment in the UK

After the 2007-8 financial crisis, movements - and later parties - which brought 'the people' to the forefront began to dominate the European political scene. These mobilisations brought electoral success for left parties, translating the energies of the movements to the electoral level. Although many people saw Corbynism as a similar political phenomenon, in the UK it was the Brexit campaign that was most successful in constructing a mass popular subjectivity. This article discusses the failure of the anti-austerity mobilisations in Britain to create a transversal popular subjectivity, as happened in Spain and Greece; and it looks at Corbynism within the context of the popular left moment after 2007-8. In particular, it argues that, although the party under Corbyn's leadership did try to absorb the anti-austerity energy, and ultimately to present it in a manifesto that could bring electoral victory, it did not succeed in this attempt. This was partly because the British anti-austerity movements had not had the same social extent as the movements of the squares in Greece and Spain; partly because the Labour Party has very rarely seen itself, or behaved as, a populist party; and partly because Corbynism did not manage to deal with the challenge of Brexit. But there are also factors outside of the control of the leadership of the party, including the interplay between Corbynism and the Conservatives; the relationship between Corbynism and Momentum; and the nature of the discourses in circulation during this period.