Electoral Situation Research Articles

Improving Election Integrity: Blockchain and Byzantine Generals Problem Theory in Vote Systems

In the digital age, maintaining election integrity is critical, especially in Africa, where the security of electronic elections is often questioned. This study presents a blockchain-based vote counting and validation (BBVV) system developed using a mixed methods approach that combines stakeholder questionnaires to capture system specification and randomized historical election data analysis, following the Design Science Research strategy. Using the theory of the Byzantine General Problem, the BBVV protocol is proposed, which provides an accurate local count of votes at polling stations before national aggregation. The system was tested with randomized historical election data on the Algorand blockchain TestNet and confirmed that a local consensus on the vote count could be reached before it is added to the national tally on the blockchain. Our results show that in the cases where consensus was reached, this was the instance in only about 5% of the voting scenarios, with only 10% of the total vote being considered valid due to the strict consensus requirements. In addition, significant discrepancies were found between officials, with no consensus reached in 95% of cases which was due to the rogue values generated by a randomized dataset. The performance of the BBVV system was evaluated using transaction metrics, saturation, throughput, traffic, and latency to assess its efficiency, scalability, and reliability. The results suggest that blockchain technology can significantly improve the integrity of elections by ensuring a transparent, secure, and accurate vote-counting process. Future work will focus on improving the adaptability and scalability of the BBVV system for different electoral situations.

The Chance of Winning Election Impacts on Social Media Strategy

Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns according to their chances of winning. Leading candidates, for example, do not behave the same as fringe candidates in their elections, and vice versa. We, however, know little about this difference in social media political campaign strategies according to their odds in elections. We tackle this problem by analyzing candidates' tweets in terms of users, topics, and sentiment of replies. Our study finds that, as their chances of winning increase, candidates narrow the targets they communicate with, from people in general to the electrical districts and specific persons (verified accounts or accounts with many followers). Our study brings new insights into the candidates' campaign strategies through the analysis based on the novel perspective of the candidate's electoral situation.

The Electoral Situation in Cisbaikalian Districts during the All-Russian Vote of 2020

The Electoral Situation in Cisbaikalian Districts during the All-Russian Vote of 2020

The electoral situation as a chronotope

This article explores the phenomenon of elections as a political chronotope, a spatio-temporal realm where the mechanisms of democracy unfold. Its aim is to elucidate the unique socio-political nature of elections. The author establishes that the spatial and temporal characteristics define the format and regulations governing electoral interactions. The term «chronotope» is understood as an interdisciplinary concept that captures the essential connections between temporal and spatial features within a specific order of phenomena. Although extensive research has focused on the social, technical, and psychological aspects of expressing one›s will, the ontology of elections, which encompasses the comprehension of the «unity of time and place of action» and the involvement of political actors in the electoral scenario, has been largely overlooked. Additionally, this study concentrates on the concept of the electoral situation, which delineates the synchronous and diachronic connections wherein citizens’ political choices are positioned, realized, and interpreted. The notion of the electoral situation can be correlated with the term «political landscape», which is only partially related to actual geography but predominantly pertains to the comprehensive conditions of an electoral competition (the coordinate system) and the participants involved in this process. The article’s author illustrates how the electoral situation constructs synchronous and diachronic connections at various levels of political interaction. Notably, these connections are facilitated by political mythologems, which serve as unifying and integrative factors within the electoral chronotope. By examining these mythologems, the author highlights their role in shaping the narrative and symbolism surrounding elections, ultimately influencing the dynamics and outcomes of the electoral process. Overall, this article delves into the intricate relationship between elections and the spatio-temporal framework in which they occur. By emphasizing the significance of the electoral situation and its connection to the broader political landscape, the author sheds light on the multifaceted nature of electoral processes, enriching our understanding of democracy’s fundamental mechanisms.

The electoral situation as a chronotope

This article explores the phenomenon of elections as a political chronotope, a spatio-temporal realm where the mechanisms of democracy unfold. Its aim is to elucidate the unique socio-political nature of elections. The author establishes that the spatial and temporal characteristics define the format and regulations governing electoral interactions. The term «chronotope» is understood as an interdisciplinary concept that captures the essential connections between temporal and spatial features within a specific order of phenomena. Although extensive research has focused on the social, technical, and psychological aspects of expressing one›s will, the ontology of elections, which encompasses the comprehension of the «unity of time and place of action» and the involvement of political actors in the electoral scenario, has been largely overlooked. Additionally, this study concentrates on the concept of the electoral situation, which delineates the synchronous and diachronic connections wherein citizens’ political choices are positioned, realized, and interpreted. The notion of the electoral situation can be correlated with the term «political landscape», which is only partially related to actual geography but predominantly pertains to the comprehensive conditions of an electoral competition (the coordinate system) and the participants involved in this process. The article’s author illustrates how the electoral situation constructs synchronous and diachronic connections at various levels of political interaction. Notably, these connections are facilitated by political mythologems, which serve as unifying and integrative factors within the electoral chronotope. By examining these mythologems, the author highlights their role in shaping the narrative and symbolism surrounding elections, ultimately influencing the dynamics and outcomes of the electoral process. Overall, this article delves into the intricate relationship between elections and the spatio-temporal framework in which they occur. By emphasizing the significance of the electoral situation and its connection to the broader political landscape, the author sheds light on the multifaceted nature of electoral processes, enriching our understanding of democracy’s fundamental mechanisms.

The electoral situation in Cisbaikalian districts during the all-Russian vote of 2020

The electoral situation in Cisbaikalian districts during the all-Russian vote of 2020

TRANSFORMATION OF BRITISH POLITICAL PARTIES AFTER LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS

The main tendencies and prospects of transformation of British political parties after the state’s withdrawal from the European Union are studied. It is noted that in recent years the British political system has been developing and transforming under the direct influence of public debate on the expediency or inexpediency of the state’s stay in the European Union, which resulted in a referendum on leaving the EU and further implementing it at the organizational and institutional level. It is proved that the transformation of the party system can be both progressive and regressive, depending on the nature of external and internal changes that occur under the influence of a holistic set of socio-political factors. It is noted that the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of any party system as an object of transformational change, it seems appropriate to include the following: the model of the party system; the number of political parties that actually claim to participate in the formation and implementation of the political course of the state; legal (formal) institutionalization of political parties; party ideologies, programs, election platforms; public opinion on the evaluation of the activities of both individual political parties and the party system as a whole; results of political elections; the level of defragmentation and regionalization of the party system. The leading role of the Conservative Party in the process of preparing, conducting and implementing the results of the referendum on the expediency of Britain’s stay in the EU, which corresponds to the traditional conservative ideology of protectionism and the decisive role of the sovereign nation in political and economic processes. It is concluded that the British vector of integration as a principled position of the Conservative Party, which is perceived as an alternative to the idea of European integration in the sense of creating common European institutions, whose activities are largely based on supranational sources of law. It has been shown that the traditional left-wing and center-left electorate of the Labor Party has been partially overthrown by populist parties with essentially socialist socio-economic slogans, such as Reform UK. It is assumed that in the charismatic and personal conditionality of modern world politics, the current electoral situation may be somewhat changed by the emergence of a strong, bright and at the same time moderate in political and socio-economic views leader, which is an important factor in election technology.

Incivility in Congressional Tweets

Civility in political discourse is often thought to be necessary for deliberation and a healthy democracy. However, incivility is on the rise in political discourse in the United States—even from members of Congress—suggesting that political incivility may in fact be a tool to be used strategically. When and why, then, do members of Congress use incivility in their rhetoric? We develop and test expectations for the usage of political incivility by members of Congress on Twitter, using every tweet sent by a member of Congress from 2009–2020 coded for the presence of uncivil rhetoric via a novel application of transformer models for natural language processing. We find that more ideologically extreme members, those in safer electoral situations, and those who are in a position of political opposition are more likely to use incivility in their tweets, and that uncivil tweets increase engagement with members’ messages.

(De)Constructing Myths in Editorial Cartoons: The Case of Philippine Elections

The electoral situation in the Philippines can be described as dramatic, and it seems to be a severe political competition since various media are exploited and manipulated; either the purpose is to construct or to assassinate one's character. This paper analyzed 20 editorial cartoons to identify the signifiers, infer the connotative meanings, and analyze the myths present in the editorial cartoons that represent the upcoming Philippine National election in 2022. This research employed a qualitative descriptive research design and content analysis. The researchers utilized purposive sampling in selecting the twenty editorial cartoons from reputable newspaper companies in the Philippines. Results of the study showed that the common signifiers present in the editorial cartoons were the men in barong and wearing salakot representing the Filipino citizens, alligator, lion, and pig representing the candidates, and finger-pointing that connotes blaming. Another significant finding that emerged from this study was the nine deconstructed myths inferred from the signifiers: political feud, hiding true intentions, political colors, election promises, power tripping, social media influence in electoral campaigns, foreign influence, honesty in an election, and nuisance candidates. In conclusion, from the perspective of the cartoonists of different media outlets, the election situation in the Philippines is negatively framed. Thus, the researchers recommend to conduct a study related to the signs used to portray the election process to understand the relationship of the concepts between its denotative and connotative meanings.

THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN STORTING 2021

The article examines the phenomenon of the influence of social networks on election campaigns using the example of Norway. For an introduction to the context of the electoral situation in Norway, the author describes the election programs of the main Norwegian political parties. Methods of content analysis and discourse analysis are used to better understand network voter mobilization. The author provides a review of the literature on this topic in order to substantiate the need for the applied methodology. The analysis of the share of Internet users in different countries has been carried out. The most popular social networks have been identified and the networks that are best suited for political mobilization and are used in Norway have been identified. The author carried out a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the official Facebook accounts of the Norwegian parliamentary parties during the election campaign in 2021. The study revealed the main trends in the behavior of political parties and their voters on the Facebook social network. The author concludes that all political parties in Norway use social networks as one of the main channels for mobilizing supporters. In addition, this tool allows parties to respond to current topics and changing voter sentiments.

Reviving Albert Camus: Nonviolence and Pro-Independence PR Activism in Catalonia

In recent years, the electoral situation in Spain, has been marked by the issue of Catalan independence, which has conditioned the electoral agenda of all parties and the frames of political discourse. Against the idea of a violent movement that the Spanish nationalist parties and government want to transmit to Spanish society about the separatist movement, the nationalist parties’ and Catalan government turn to nonviolent discourse and action. This nonviolent behavior is based on what in the past century was defended by some public intellectuals, such as Albert Camus. Indeed, Camus is our exemplar because he also raises issues that continue to be relevant, especially in advocating principles and methods of nonviolent political action. Furthermore, Camus did so in situations of war and injustice through tactics typical of political communication the of activist groups. This article wants to show how current and how effective the ideas of Camus are today, when it is 60 years since his death, in some national electoral discourses and actions, and serve for activism PR purposes in the political communication frame.

El sujeto sexual en la niñez y la adolescencia: su estudio a partir de las manifestaciones públicas relacionadas con los Programas de Afectividad y Sexualidad del Ministerio de Educación Pública en Costa Rica

En el marco del cambio cultural que experimenta actualmente Costa Rica, persiste una reproducción de un sujeto sexual en la niñez y la adolescencia funcional al discurso heterosexual y adultocéntrico, reproductor de una serie de asimetrías de poder contra esta población. En este artículo, el análisis de la construcción del sujeto sexual en la niñez y la adolescencia se sitúa en la coyuntura electoral costarricense de 2018, durante las manifestaciones públicas relacionadas con los Programas de Afectividad y Sexualidad del Ministerio de Educación Pública, en Costa Rica.

Voter turnout at the national level in Poland – selected aspects

The article addresses the issue of voter turnout at the national level in Poland in 1990–2019. In particular, the author focused on 2019, when the turnout in parliamentary elections was the highest throughout the period under analysis. The aim of the study is to determine the reasons for this increase in the electoral activity of Polish citizens. The analysis leads to the conclusion that after the Law and Justice party took power in 2015, significant modifications of the social system, including the political system, ensued, thereby altering selected features of the electoral situation and raising the level of political emotions. The outcome involved a significant increase in voter turnout in 2019, when the elections to the European Parliament, as well as to the Polish parliament (the Sejm and Senate) were held. The study employs the following methods: analysis and criticism of literature (sources), the systemic method, and statistical methods.

Which women win? Partisan changes in victory patterns in US House Elections

ABSTRACT A long line of research has shown that “when women run, they win,” but we know little about which women win. Based on a new dataset of US House candidates, this article examines partisan victory patterns among female candidates from 1980 to 2012. The relationship between party and election outcomes changes over time, yet Republican women face a much more difficult electoral environment than Democratic women. In addition, the electoral situation of Republican women has worsened in recent years, whereas that of Democratic women has improved. Democratic women candidates now dramatically outnumber Republican women candidates, and prospects for gender parity are further hindered by the dearth of Republican women who run. The partisan gap in women’s representation is likely to persist in light of the multiple ways in which Republican women are disadvantaged compared to Democratic women.

Recalibrating social protection: Electoral competition and the new partisan politics of the welfare state

AbstractThis article investigates the new party politics of welfare states with a particular focus on electoral competition. The argument is that welfare state politics are no longer just about more or less, but involve trade‐offs among ‘new’ versus ‘old’ social rights, and hence social investment versus social consumption. However, party priorities on these issues are highly dependent upon their electoral situation. As electoral competition becomes more intense, parties focus more on vote maximisation than on their traditional policy goals. For left parties, this means focusing more on social investment, which appeals to their growing constituency of progressive sociocultural professionals, and less on defending the traditional income maintenance programmes favoured by their core blue‐collar voters. Centre‐right parties, on the other hand, should hesitate to retrench old social rights when electoral competition intensifies because they need to prioritise their appeal to culturally conservative working‐class voters over their traditional fiscally conservative policy profiles. Using a new dataset and a recently published measure of electoral competitiveness, the article shows that as electoral competition intensifies, left governments are willing to prioritise social investment by reducing pension rights generosity in order to expand programmes for new social risks, while centre‐right governments by contrast avoid retrenchment of pension rights and pension expenditures. The findings demonstrate that this relationship is moderated by the presence of a credible radical right challenger, which increases the electoral risk of welfare state recalibration.

Literacy, Information, and Party System Fragmentation in India

A rich theoretical literature argues that, in contradiction to Duverger’s law, the plurality voting rule can fail to produce two-party system when voters do not share their common information about the electoral situation. We present an empirical operationalization and a series of tests of this informational hypothesis in the case of India using constituency- and individual-level data. In highly illiterate constituencies where access to information and information sharing among voters is low, voters often fail to coordinate on the two most viable parties. In highly literate constituencies, voters are far more successful at avoiding vote-wasting—in line with the informational hypothesis. At a microlevel, these aggregate-level patterns are driven by the interaction of individual information and the informational context: In dense informational environments, even low-information voters can successfully identify viable parties and vote for them, but in sparse informational environments, individual access to information is essential for successful strategic voting.

Literacy, Information, and Party System Fragmentation in India

A rich theoretical literature argues that, in contradiction to the Duverger’s law, the plurality voting rule can fail to produce two-party system when voters do not share common information about the electoral situation. We present an empirical operationalization and a series of tests of this informational hypothesis in the case of India using constituency- and individual-level data. In highly illiterate constituencies where access to information and information-sharing among voters is low, voters often fail to coordinate on the two most viable parties. In highly literate constituencies, voters are far more successful at avoiding vote-wasting – in line with the informational hypothesis. At a micro-level, these aggregate-level patterns are driven by the interaction of individual information and the informational context: in dense informational environments, even low-information voters can successfully identify viable parties and vote for them, but in sparse informational environments, individual access to information is essential for successful strategic voting.

Electoral Politics in Taiwan: 2008–2012

This paper conducts an analysis of the implementation of the new electoral system (single-district, two-votes system) in practice in 2008. It is focused on the research of two aspects: first, the voter’s awareness of the new electoral system; second, the impact of the new electoral system on the political party system. In the research methods, this article combines the analysis of an individual survey data and information on the election results, trying to find an answer to the question about Taiwan’s voters knowledge of the electoral system situation, the factors that affect the knowledge of the electoral system, as well as the issues of the new electoral system’s impact on the change and development of the political party system. The research has found out that: Taiwan’s voter awareness of the current electoral system is not high. The further research into the relations between the knowledge of the electoral system and the voting choice, as well as the control of other possible factors of influence, showed that the voters who have a more correct and clear understanding of the electoral system have the tendency to vote for small parties.From the results of the general information, the practice of the electoral system indeed led to the decline in pluralistic views. The number of effective parties in the parliament has significantly decreased to that one before restructuring. The new electoral system has made survival difficult for small parties, while the rate of the wasted vote in the regional constituency increased dramatically, making it more difficult to represent pluralistic views.These possible problems caused by the new electoral system, also triggered reactions and initiatives among the domestic public concerning the reform of the electoral system in 2015.

Internally Displaced Persons and Elections under Military Conflict in Ukraine

We examine the legal framework and the institutional and political conditions that have adversely impacted the electoral participation of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) voters in Ukraine. Since 2014, during intense political instability and military conflict, Ukraine conducted three elections—presidential, parliamentary and local. Meanwhile, the number of IDPs climbed to 1.5 million (as of October 2015 when the last election was held). Based on English- and Ukrainian-language legal and political documents, we trace the development of Ukrainian laws on IDPs and elections. We find that Ukraine’s government has failed to adhere to international standards on IDP enfranchisement; we also show how procedures of IDP electoral registration, policies towards conflict-affected areas and electoral campaigns have undermined the principle of political equality for internally displaced citizens. We conclude with steps Ukraine and the international community can take to improve the electoral situation of IDPs.

Valence and Campaigns

We present a model of two‐candidate elections in which candidates are office‐motivated, campaigning is voluntary and costly, and one candidate has a valence advantage. In equilibrium, the order of campaign announcements matters: Each candidate would prefer to announce his or her position after the other candidate has announced his or hers. The fundamental predictions of the model are (1) the impact of valence and campaigning costs on candidates' equilibrium behaviors is in general ambiguous, requiring further specification of the details of the electoral situation, and (2) in general, equilibrium platform announcements are essentially independent of the location of the median voter's ideal point. In addition, the model is consistent with elections in which both, only one, or neither candidate actively campaigns, and, finally, even when one candidate has a large valence advantage, there might be no equilibrium in which he or she will win the election with certainty.