Electoral Pressures Research Articles

The Two-Pronged Palestinian Response to Exclusion Within Israel

Abstract The Palestinian leadership within Israel has undergone a series of political–organizational transformations since 2015, oscillating between cohesive and fragmented mobilization. Why did the leadership fragment, despite both structural and electoral pressures to maintain unity? What explains the rapid nature of these transformations? Relying on 35 interviews with activists and politicians, I argue that declining political opportunities and mounting threats led the Palestinian leadership to pursue unity as a strategic choice in 2015. Crossing a threshold, however, the perception of further diminishing opportunities for change elicited divergent strategic responses between a group that I label “hegemonic-accommodationist,” spearheaded by Mansour Abbas’ United Arab List, and a group that I label “hegemonic-rejectionist,” representing the rest of the Palestinian political leadership. Overall, this study suggests that unity and disunity within ethnopolitical movements are linked to leaders’ perception of opportunity (and the lack thereof).

The Influence of Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Considerations in the Making of Migration and Asylum Policy in Morocco

Abstract Can the management of transnational migration and asylum be used as an instrument of foreign policy? From labour market needs to legal issues, electoral pressure, and financial and commercial interests, the scholarly literature on the drivers of migration policy in both the North and the South has focused primarily on domestic factors. The case of Morocco offers a useful additional perspective. The security-orientated and restrictive policy toward transmigrants applied in the 2000s gave way, in 2013, to a new approach that was much more welcoming and mindful of migrant integration. Since Morocco’s independence in 1956, asylum management has been driven exclusively by security and political objectives. Although it has never had a national asylum system, Morocco has officially taken the initiative to establish a system that complies with its international commitments in asylum. By taking a Moroccan perspective on the situation, this article examines the management of migration and asylum by a country of the Global South with a multifaceted migration profile (as a country that is simultaneously one of emigration, transit, and immigration). It shows that Morocco’s change in migration policy is a reflection of its evolving foreign policy.

Immigration and integration policy change in France during Sarkozy’s era

This paper sheds light on the factors behind the introduction of restrictive immigration and integration policy in France between 2002 and 2012, which is closely associated with Nicholas Sarkozy and his party Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). Using the evidence from semi-structured interviews, conducted with The Republicans (UMP) elected representatives, political advisors and civil servants, the paper argues that the introduction of restrictive immigration policies is explained not only through electoral pressure from the radical right Front National, but also by publics’ perceived economic concerns, cultural anxieties around Islam, as well as the effects of the EU integration. The paper also contributes to immigration policy liberalisation scholarship, by highlighting the importance of non-economic benefits migration brings, which take a form of soft power, as a way to increase French influence (rayonnement) in the world, contrary to the previous literature that explains liberalisation from economic advantages of skilled migration.

Regulatory independence may limit electoral holdup but entrench capture

Private infrastructure investment is profitable only if followed by a sufficiently high price, but pricing may be subject to regulation. We study markets where regulation is determined by elected policymakers. If price regulation is subject to manipulation then private investors may delay investment fearing an electoral pressure on future prices, leading to a holdup inefficiency. This could possibly be alleviated by regulatory independence, where policymakers can no longer influence the prices. However, to encourage investment the policymakers may install regulation that serves the interests of the infrastructure owners (“regulatory capture”) and lead to inefficient pricing. Regulatory independence can then be detrimental as it may entrench this capture. Whether inefficiencies can be moderated by creating regulatory independence therefore depends on the policymakers’ objectives. We provide experimental evidence for such capture entrenchment and detrimental effects of regulatory independence that therefore arise. Even without independence, the uninformed voters do not provide sufficient pressure to remove these effects. On the other hand, we observe that regulatory independence does reduce holdup inefficiency when policymakers align with the public interest.

A Randomization-based Analysis of the Effects of Electoral Pressure on Judges' Sentencing Decisions

A Randomization-based Analysis of the Effects of Electoral Pressure on Judges' Sentencing Decisions

Overcoming the constraints of competitive clientelism? Explaining the success of Ghana's poorest region in reducing maternal mortality.

Maternal mortality remains a health challenge that many developing countries struggle to address. Drawing on 64 key informant interviews, this article shows how Ghana's most impoverished administrative region, the Upper East, emerged as a bureaucratic 'pocket of effectiveness' in reducing maternal mortality in a context where national political settlement dynamics are undermining progress in improving maternal health. At the national level, Ghana's progress in reducing maternal mortality has been disappointing because public investments are disproportionately directed to reforms that contribute to the short-term political survival of ruling elites. Competitive electoral pressures have contributed to greater elite commitment towards health sector investments with visual impact, while weakening elite incentives for dedicating resources to interventions that are necessary for enhancing the quality of health. The relatively better performance of the Upper East Region in reducing maternal mortality has been driven by a hybrid form of accountability that combines top-down pressures from the regional health directorate with horizontal forms of accountability that result in a competitive spirit among health workers. These findings show that even in contexts where resources are limited, the capacity of sub-national leaders in devising local solutions to local problems can lead to improved performance of health systems at the sub-national level. The findings also suggest the need for academic debates to go beyond the binary distinctions regarding the usefulness of top-down versus bottom-up accountability measures and focus on building effective and legitimate forms of accountability that run both top-down and bottom-up when seeking to improve health service delivery.

Race, electoral pressure, expected judicial ideology, and the vote to confirm Justice Clarence Thomas

ABSTRACT The paper “Courting Constituents? An Analysis of the Senate Confirmation Vote on Justice Clarence Thomas” tests the theory that electoral pressure from Black constituents played a role in the confirmation of Justice Clarence Thomas to the United States Supreme Court (Overby, L. Marvin, Beth M. Henschen, Michael H. Walsh, and Julie Strauss. 1992. “Courting Constituents? An Analysis of the Senate Confirmation Vote on Justice Clarence Thomas.” American Political Science Review 86 (4): 997–1003. https://do.org/10.2307/1964351). This paper reveals several methodological errors in the original paper and also provides a friendly critique of several of the underlying assumptions put forth in the 1992 paper. This paper then offers an alternative explanation that the expected judicial ideology of Clarence Thomas nomination was relatively more important than electoral pressure from Black voters.

Accuracy and Preferences for Legal Error

Abstract Legal procedures used to determine liability trade-off type-1 errors (e.g., false convictions) against type-2 errors (e.g., false acquittals). After noting that people’s relative preferences for type-1 errors (compared to type-2 errors) appear to be negatively correlated with technological advancements, we study how the accuracy of evidence collection methods may affect the trade-off between these two errors. Counter-intuitively, we find that under some conditions, greater accuracy may result in a higher probability of type-1 error (or type-2 error) maximizing deterrence. Then, assuming both errors are decreasing in accuracy, we characterize the type-1 error that emerges under electoral pressures (when the median voter’s preferences are implemented): convictions occur more often than is socially optimal but less often than is necessary to maximize deterrence. Moreover, as the harm from crime increases, the median voter becomes less tolerant of type-1 errors as the legal system’s accuracy increases. We also show that, because the median voter is less averse toward type-1 errors than the average citizen, an increase in accuracy may reduce welfare.

Politics matters for individual attitudes toward vaccine donation: cross-national evidence from the United States and Taiwan

BackgroundVaccine equity has been a major concern during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the principle of vaccine equity, donor countries should apply the criterion of needs to make decisions about vaccine donation instead of considering recipient countries’ economic status. We examine whether people follow the same criterion or consider other factors to decide which country to donate vaccines and how many vaccines should be delivered.MethodsWe conducted online surveys with the design of conjoint experiment in the United States and Taiwan in 2021. 1,532 American citizens and 1,587 Taiwanese citizens were interviewed. The respondents were broadly quota-matched to their respective demographic proportions on the dimensions of age, gender, and education. We estimated the average marginal component effects (AMCEs) of the conjoint attributes by using the OLS regression models with standard errors clustered at the respondent level.Results15,320 and 15,870 decisions on vaccine donation generated by conjoint experiment respectively in the United States and Taiwan were included in the analysis. Both American and Taiwanese people tend to donate vaccines to countries that suffer severe consequences of COVID-19 and democracies compared to authoritarian countries. However, they are less willing to donate vaccines to those with higher levels of capability in response to COVID-19. Taiwanese people tend to donate vaccines to countries having formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan (AMCE 13.4%, 95% CI 11.8%-15.1%). Nonetheless, American people would rather donate vaccines to countries without formal diplomatic relations with the United States (AMCE − 4.0%, 95% CI -5.6%--2.4%).ConclusionsThe findings reveal that politics plays a significant role in people’s decisions about vaccine donation. Under electoral pressure, political leaders must think about how to respond to the public’s preferences over vaccine donation to achieve vaccine equity and address the global health crisis.

Non‐majoritarian institutions, media coverage, and “reinforced accountability”

AbstractAs non‐majoritarian institutions are deliberately insulated from electoral pressure and ministerial hierarchy, they face an accountability deficit. This deficit can be reduced by embedding the organizations in a wider accountability landscape with multiple forums. Of particular relevance in this landscape are the news media, who may not only serve as account‐holders, but can also reinforce other forms of accountability. Yet, we know little about the conditions under which the media cover non‐majoritarian governance, and the existence of “reinforced accountability”. Focusing empirically on news articles about the Bank of England (1997–2020), we trace coverage levels back to the announcement of key policy decisions and, to some extent, policy outcomes. We also find evidence of reinforced accountability, both in relation to parliamentary oversight and the Bank's own, voluntary account‐giving. These results provide reason for cautious optimism about non‐majoritarian accountability, at least in the case of a salient organization.

Electoral Competition and Policy-Making Under the Fourth Merkel Government. Driven by ‘Fridays for Future’ and the Pandemic?

ABSTRACT Did electoral competition shape the policies of the fourth Merkel government? We answer this question in five steps. First, we theoretically discuss under which conditions electoral competition affects public policies. Only in publicly salient issue areas in which opposition parties advocate credible alternatives and only if policy satisfaction influences voting intention will the government modify its policies. Next, we identify the two most salient issue areas, climate change and the Corona pandemic. Third, opposition parties offered credible alternatives, the Greens (and the Left) in climate policy and the FDP (and the AfD) regarding Corona management. Fourth, governing parties could not be certain to participate in the next government. Furthermore, voting intention for the Christian democrats as leading party of the government was related to policy success, while the Greens (and the Left) and the FDP (and the AfD) could benefit from dissatisfaction with climate change policy and Corona management, respectively. Finally, only regarding climate change did the government respond to electoral pressure by an increase in press releases, while communication about Corona was driven by voters’ problem perception. These findings are corroborated by brief case studies of policy-making processes.

Africa's Lame Ducks: Second-Term Presidents and the Rule of Law

AbstractThe vast majority of sub-Saharan countries have adopted constitutional clauses establishing that elected presidents cannot serve more than two mandates. While an extensive literature has examined why African leaders comply with or else try to manipulate term limits, the policy implications of the latter remain unexplored. Existing studies of other world regions suggest that setting a maximum number of terms presidents can serve tends to make them ‘lame ducks’ during their final mandate. We reconsider this argument, and posit and demonstrate empirically that constitutional limits can actually induce positive effects on second-term presidents' actions compared to their first terms. More specifically, the absence of electoral pressures, the concern for their post-presidential future and legacy-building motivations may lead to improvements in the rule of law, especially regarding the functioning of the judiciary. This article represents the first empirical investigation of the performance of Africa's second-term lame-duck presidents.

Internal Drivers – The Nexus between Domestic Politics and Bilateral Relations: Exploring India-Pakistan, Pakistan-China, and China-India Dynamics

ABSTRACT Foreign policy is an extension of domestic politics in myriad ways. However, no meta-theory offers a framework of analysis that could explain the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy within the bilateral relations of three politically and culturally distinct states i.e. India, Pakistan, and China. In this paper, I explore the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy to explain what do the contemporary domestic political trends in each state indicate about the future of bilateral relations. For this purpose, I first identify what in my view is the most relevant and important domestic political driver of bilateral relations in each case. I then discuss how it affects the bilateral relations in the respective dyads and what that means for the future of bilateral relations between India – Pakistan, Pakistan – China and China – India. I argue that the situations in which a small elite dominates both the discursive trends and policy making may result in malleable notions of national identity. This provides the elite, flexibility in shaping and reorienting foreign policy (when they want). On the other hand, the situations in which foreign policy is contingent upon national identity conception as articulated by the mainstream political parties with a strong support base among the masses are highly susceptible to the electoral pressures, shrinking the space for major shifts.

Globalization, Political Institutions, and Redistribution in Central and Eastern Europe

We examine the role of political institutions in mediating the effects of globalization on economic redistribution in Central and Eastern Europe. The region represents a least-likely case of welfare state resilience in the face of global economic pressures given its reliance on foreign capital and considerable domestic elite support for neoliberal recipes during the postcommunist transition. Yet, contrary to the race-to-the-bottom hypothesis and consistent with the compensation perspective, we find that economic openness is on average related to higher redistribution. Using the high-quality European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions database for 2004–2018, we find that this effect is particularly pronounced in institutional environments where votes are more accurately translated into legislative seats (low disproportionality) and where governments face greater scrutiny both during elections (vertical accountability) and between them (diagonal accountability). Thus, even in a region that adopted “competitive deregulation,” the downward pressures of globalization were limited by electoral pressures for economic redistribution.

The politics of growth models

This article develops a framework for studying the politics of growth models. These, the authors posit, are sustained by ‘growth coalitions’ based in key sectors. Their members are first and foremost firms and employer associations, but fractions of labor are also included, if their interests do not impair the model’s functionality. There is no guarantee that a growth coalition and a winning electoral coalition coincide. In normal times, a growth coalition effectively insulates itself from political competition, and mainstream political parties converge on key growth model policies. In moments of crisis, however, the coalition shrinks, favoring the emergence of challengers that fundamentally contest the status quo. The way governing parties respond to electoral pressures can also play an important role in the recalibration of growth models. The authors illustrate the argument by examining the politics of ‘export-led growth’ in Germany, ‘construction-led growth’ in Spain, and ‘balanced growth’ in Sweden.

British counterterrorism, the international prohibition of torture, and the multiple streams framework

After years of violating the basic principles of human rights in the name of counterterrorism, western democracies have begun to implement extraterritorial safeguards that extend protections under the Convention against Torture to foreigners abroad. The case of the UK and the development of the ‘Principles’ in 2019, however, presents a particular puzzle to policymaking research, as it challenges traditional hypotheses regarding the opening of problem windows within the multiple streams framework. Accordingly, the UK presents an interesting case in which a powerful state willingly engaged in self-restraint, despite little electoral pressure to do so and a persistently high terrorist threat. Drawing on theory-building process-tracing, this article addresses this gap using data from semi-structured interviews with British policy experts to present a refined hypothesis, which can also be applied to policy fields of little public interest and processes of foreign policymaking.

Leveraging city officials’ professional and social Identities to facilitate affordable housing

Housing affordability is an acute problem in many developed economies. It is rooted, inter alia, in a conflict of interests across levels of government. Policies that seek to increase the supply of housing and lower their purchase price are popular among the general electorate, yet local governments deploy urban planning regulations to restrict densification and development of affordable housing within their jurisdictions. Moves to address this conflict would benefit from unpacking city officials' policy preferences and their variation. This paper compares the positions of local-government politicians vs. those of unelected bureaucrats in Israeli cities, drawing on survey and interview data. Our findings confirm the conflicts of interest between levels of government even within Israel's unitary, centralized context. However, we show that career bureaucrats, given their relative freedom from electoral pressures and commitment to professional values, are more amenable to citizens' and central government's shared interest in densification and affordable housing. We also highlight city officials' place of residence—within vs. outside the city—and their social identification with citizens and residents as antecedents of their urban-planning preferences. We draw on these findings to delineate directions for more effective central–local government collaboration in seeking affordable housing solutions.

Inter-Party Competition, Public Electoral Pressure, and Democratic Strength: Refining Political Explanations of Incarceration Trends in the U.S., 1980 – 2010

The purpose of this research is to advance the politics of mass imprisonment literature by testing and specifying the macro-explanations of the state-level incarceration change in the United States (U.S.) between 1980 and 2010. Specifically, I account for mechanisms of inter-party competition and public electoral pressure neglected in prior research. To accomplish this goal, I utilize random coefficient models designed to control for repeated annual measures of state-level data that overwhelm traditional analytic techniques. Findings suggest that violent crime, partisan affiliation of state legislators and governors, probation rates, citizen ideology, marijuana decriminalization, and recidivist-focused laws are associated with incarceration as hypothesized, as well as the African American presence net of crime and socioeconomic disadvantage. Contributing to the theoretical debates on democracy and punishment, this paper demonstrates that inter-party competition and public electoral pressure amplify incarceration in the context of Democratic Party dominance, where no liberalizing effects of competition were found. I conclude that legal and extralegal factors are associated with incarceration and suggest that the public did not oppose criminal justice expansion via democratic feedback mechanisms, so both penal populism (Pratt, 2008) and popular punitivism (Campbell et al., 2017) are valid interpretations of imprisonment politics during the analyzed period.

A Rainbow Bundestag? An Intersectional Analysis of LGBTI Representation in Angela Merkel’s Germany

German governments, dominated by the conservative CDU/CSU, have historically not been at the forefront in recognising LGBTI rights in Europe. Yet, significant advances have occurred under Angela Merkel’s leadership since 2005. This article seeks to understand the conditions under which these unexpected advances have occurred, to what degree Merkel and her government facilitated or obstructed them, and which groups benefitted from these advances. I use parliamentary questions, coalition agreements and party programmes to map the expansion of LGBTI rights and the forces Merkel and her government had to navigate. Comparing the four terms of Merkel’s chancellorship, I find that she played a passive or indirectly facilitating role, only moving on LGBTI issues when pressured by international norms, the Federal Constitutional Court or electoral pressure. Although LGBTI interests are increasingly visible on the political agenda, the advances made did not benefit all groups under the LBGTI-umbrella equally, as bisexual, trans* and intersex interests remain mostly invisible. Taking a birds-eye view of Merkel’s chancellorship I illustrate how and what kind of change can occur under conservative-led governments.

Labour and left-wing parties’ programmatic orientations: salience, valence and the impact of the Great Recession

ABSTRACT The steady weakening of the relationship between parties and civil society, in particular trade unions, has been the subject of considerable research. The same cannot be said, however, of the programmatic salience assigned by political parties to labour issues. This paper aims to explore how different party families relate to labour through a quantitative and qualitative approach. First, data from the MARPOR/Comparative Manifestos Project is used to compare the relative salience of labour in distinct party families, thus allowing us to analyse trends over time and across countries. Second, we focus on Southern Europe, before and after the crisis, to conduct a qualitative analysis of left-of-centre party positions toward labour. The findings suggest that labour issues are less salient in contemporary party platforms and that the mainstream left depoliticised this dimension of competition over the last decades. The historical links between parties and trade unions, the ideological legacies of left-of-centre parties and electoral pressures are the main factors that explain variations of party positions toward labour.