Electoral Preferences Research Articles

Features of the application of methods for assessing the influence of political culture on electoral preferences

Features of the application of methods for assessing the influence of political culture on electoral preferences

Peculiarities of the social structure of the electorate of left-wing parties in the EU countries

The article is devoted to the analysis of the political situation in the European Union, focusing on changes in support for left-wing parties in the context of global challenges. Transformations in the electoral preferences of EU citizens caused by economic and political turmoil and international conflicts are considered. The main focus is on the growing popularity of radical left populist parties. The analysis shows that traditional left-wing parties are losing support due to insufficiently radical proposals, which leads to fragmentation of their electorate. Radicalization of political sentiment is seen as a serious challenge, as radical movements are less predictable and can create political instability in the region. In this regard, analysts are faced with the question of possible changes in the political landscape, which is especially important in the context of tense international relations and sanctions pressure on Russia. The author emphasizes the need to understand political changes and forecast their consequences in order to develop effective electoral forecasts. The article considers the main results of the 2024 European Parliament elections, their impact on electoral preferences and changes in the EU political landscape. The theoretical approaches and empirical studies of leading domestic and foreign scholars in the field of studying party systems are analyzed, which allows us to assess current and future trends in European politics. The work also touches upon the issues of uniting left-wing forces in opposition to right-wing parties, as well as possible scenarios for the development of the political situation in the European Parliament and its impact on international relations and interstate interaction.

Proximity or Directional Model of Voting for the Turkish Voter?

Voting behavior is a very complex type of political behavior. Therefore, understanding why voters vote for a particular political party or a candidate requires developing complex models. In 1957, Anthony Downs, who built his model on Hottelings’ and Smithies’ models, argued that political parties’ and candidates’ ideological and issue positions can be expressed on a one-dimensional space. On one hand, it was highly reductionist to argue that political ideas on a particular issue can be expressed this way, on the other, it was highly practical from analytical point of view. Locating parties, candidates and voters on a one-dimensional space according to their ideological or issue positions was then a revolutionaly idea and helped comparing party, candidate and voter ideological and issue positions within and across countries. These models, which were called spatial models of party competition were further developed over time and helped understanding voting behavior. Currently, spatial models of party competition have two major competing models linking voter ideological positions with party ideological positions. Simply, while the proximity model proposes that voters vote for the parties or candidates that hold ideological positions in the political space that are closest to their own, the directional model suggests that the voters vote for the parties or candidates that are on their side of the two-dimensional political spectrum and more extreme than their own while being within the acceptability region. This research aims to test the applicability of these two voting models for the Turkish voter. Türkiye constitutes an interesting case study with its long-term PR electoral system as it was suggested in the extant literature that proximity model is a more appropriate tool to explain voting behavior in Proportional (PR) systems. Thus, we hypothesize that in Türkiye, where a PR electoral system is in effect for parliamentary elections, voter electoral preferences are better explained by the proximity model than the directional model. Our research analyzes Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) data for voters of the four major political parties in Türkiye, the Justice and Development Party (JDP), the Republican People’s Party (RPP), the National Action Party (NAP), and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). A series of Multiple Linear Regression Analyses were conducted to reveal associations between the dependent and the independent variables. Voter embracement, as expressed as like-dislike of each political party for each voter, is seperately used as the dependent variable for each analysis. Issue distance and issue scalar product were used as key independent variables representing the formulas for the proximity and the directional models, respectively. Additionally, education, age, gender and income were recruited as classical control variables. Comparing explanatory powers of the statistical models showed that, contrary to the findings of MacDonald and his colleagues, the proximity model of voting is a more appropriate tool than the directional model to explain voting behavior in Türkiye. From a macro-political perspective, this finding supports Westholm’s (1997) argument that the PR provides a more appropriate tool to explain voting behavior in PR systems. Yet, it should be noted that further multi-country comperative analyses required for certain results.

Environmental programs of Russian political parties. Electoral preferences

The article analyzes the influence of environmental programs of Russian political parties on electoral preferences. The All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center research shows that despite the satisfactory assessment of the environmental situation by the population, the growth of concern about the deterioration of the environmental situation in the regions is noticeable.

Education, perceived discrimination, and identity voting: evidence from Brazil’s 2018 election

ABSTRACT Brazil’s electoral arena has long been characterized as devoid of identity politics. Recent analyses, however, have uncovered shifting racial subjectivities and effects of race and gender on electoral preferences. This paper leverages Brazil’s 2018 election to reassess conventional wisdom and test whether recent findings derived from racial groups extend to other subordinate social groups in this context, namely women and sexual minorities. I test two hypotheses: (1) that higher levels of education correlate with greater perceptions of group-based discrimination, and (2) that perceptions of group-based discrimination explain within-group variation in support for Bolsonaro. Analysis of national survey data show that education correlates with group consciousness among subordinate groups, and that these individuals are more likely to oppose the far-right populist candidate. This article provides a more complete understanding of the electoral salience of identity in the Brazilian context, and provides evidence that insights derived from one marginalized group can extend to others.

The political economy of urban party switching in African elections: Evidence from Zambia

Abstract Zambia experienced its third electoral turnover in the 2021 election. While the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) lost votes across the territory, the electoral collapse in urban Zambia was particularly remarkable. This paper argues that economic performance voting can explain urban party switching in Zambia. The argument is supported by a unique panel survey of Zambian voters in the period 2019–2022. We show that urban voters were more likely to desert the PF, even when we control for ethnicity. We also show that they were more likely to evaluate the economy poorly and more likely to change their electoral preferences in view of such poor economic evaluation. Our results stress that African elections should not be understood as static expressions of stable political cleavages but may function as real opportunities for political accountability. However, the extent to which voters are willing to re-evaluate their vote choice varies across space.

Was Bolsonaro’s 2018 electoral victory an institutional accident?

Presidential Elections are critical moments for polyarchical systems, particularly in contexts of high social tension. In this regard, the 2018 presidential election in Brazil, which used a two-round system, is a significant case study. Intriguingly, the most divisive candidates went to the second round. Was this an institutional accident? Pairwise and positional voting procedures embody different generalizations of a majoritarian credo that underpins such elections. The paper mobilizes both perspectives and, using representative survey data, reconstructs the top four preferences of the Brazilian electorate a week before the election. The analysis reveals that the electoral winner, Jair Messias Bolsonaro – despite being a divisive candidate – was a Condorcet Winner and a Borda Winner. Conversely, the second-round loser, Fernando Haddad, was a Condorcet Loser. Thus, Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 was not an institutional accident. The paper also explores possible alternative scenarios under different feasible sets of candidates through simulations, contributing to a deeper understanding of the role of decision procedures in critical junctures.

Social Housing Contracts: Does Election Result Matter?

This study examines whether election results affect the annual number of social housing contracts in Australia, focusing on the doctrines of public entrepreneurialism and public interventionism associated with political parties. Using panel data analysis of voting rates at electorate level in Queensland State, the study finds that an increase of one standard deviation in the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP) voting rate, compared to the Liberal-National Coalition, corresponds to an increase of 1.07 contracts from the mean value of 21.47. This equates to approximately a 5% increase in the number of social housing contracts managed by Queensland State. The analysis further reveals that the ALP’s voting rate has a disproportionately positive impact on the supply of social housing for indigenous communities. These findings underscore in influencing the provision of social housing and offer insightful implications for policymakers and researchers, suggesting that electoral preferences can serve as a barometer for public demand for social welfare initiatives.

Does electoral behavior change after a protest cycle? Evidence from Chile and Bolivia

Can protests produce changes in electoral behavior? In this paper, we examine variations in voter turnout and electoral preferences at the local level after a protest cycle. Using data on protest occurrence during the 2019 social mobilizations in Chile and Bolivia and a difference-in-differences design, we assess the impact that street demonstrations had on voting behavior in the elections that took place the following year. We found that turnout was higher in municipalities that had protests, while the incumbent vote was lower. We argue that the effect on turnout is explained by the surge in political efficacy that emerged from the protests. Furthermore, we suggest that the protests enabled more effective blame attribution and heightened the salience of political issues, leading to changes in voter preferences. These results demonstrate the effect of protests on electoral dynamics, highlighting their role not only in mobilizing voters but also in shaping electoral preferences.

Модель электорального поведения резидента Арктической зоны РФ на региональных выборах высшего должностного лица (2013–2022 гг.)

Being one of the strategically important regions for the development of the Russian Federation and a variety of aspects of its security, the Arctic represents a platform for defending the country’s national priorities. The nature of the policy pursued in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation determines the status of the state as an Arctic power. Therefore, the aim of the study was to investigate the electoral preferences and to design the electoral model of the residents of the Russian Arctic in the elections of the highest official of the region in the period from 2013 to 2022. By means of multifactor comparative analysis using the clustering methodology, the author managed to determine such variables for the construction of the electoral model of a resident of the Russian Arctic zone as the level of electoral activity, voting for typical and atypical candidates and for the conditionally designated candidate “against all” as a marker of legitimate support for registered candidates and/or protest voting. The study revealed that, unlike the other federal subject’s voters, residents of the Russian Arctic take a more active part in the election of the head of the region, providing electoral support to the candidates of the “United Russia”, although in some cases atypical voting was observed, the percentage of which was insignificant. At the same time, the data obtained show that the number of invalid ballots is higher in the Arctic regions than in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Thus, the constructed model of electoral behavior of the resident of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in the implementation of regional policy in the region allows taking into account not only quantitative, but also qualitative parameters of electoral preferences of the Arctic residents to predict the results of future elections.

AN UNEXPECTED ALLIANCE: US POLICY REGARDING FORMATION OF THE CENTER-LEFT COALITION IN ITALY

The Cold War became a significant factor influencing not only the foreign, but also the domestic politics of Italy. The main problem of Italy as a member of NATO in the middle of the 20th century left pro-Soviet parties became popular, and the ruling Christian Democratic Party may lose power. The alliance of Christian Democrats with the Socialists became an unexpected means of solving the current problems, and the US, by supporting this alliance, demonstrated the ability to be flexible in conducting foreign policy towards its allies. The main thesis of the article is that such unexpected alliance between the Christian Democracy Party and the Socialist Party was not an improvised action, but a long-term strategy. The formation of the first center-left government in First Republic of Italy is referred to 1962. However, the idea of such alliance had emerged a few years before, in 1958, and it was discussed between Italian and American governments on numerous occasions. The main shift towards an adoption of coalition between Christian Democrats and Socialists was the failure of Fernando Tambroni’s government in 1960, the last government with the center-right and far-right parties at the power. From this moment for many, and for U.S. government as well, become evident the impossibility of sticking to the old strictly anti-left policy. The Socialist Party itself had gone through a long evolution process. Being a pro-Soviet party immediately after the WW2, it later cut off its ties to the Soviet Union and the Communist Party of Italy, and even rejected revolution as the way to reform society, preferring the long way of step-by-step changes. A new Socialist approach to the parliamentary democracy allowed it to become a part of ruling coalition soon after the inner reforms of the Socialist Party. It was hard to imagine in the beginning of the Cold War that the U.S. government would ever seek the support from the Socialist Party of Italy. But in the beginning of 1960’s, considering the changes in electoral preferences, the question of Italian Socialists become the focal point in the U.S. policy towards the Italy.

Dynamics of political electoral preferences among residents of closed cities in Russia (1995-2003)

This study explores the political aspect of closed cities, which is understudied compared to their managerial and economic aspects. The author examines the association between the status of a closed city and political preferences in 1990s. The study suggests that closed cities were strongholds of both liberal and anti-communist voting. It also hypothesizes that the differences in political preferences between closed cities and the rest of Russia diminish over time. The author collects electoral data from 1995 to 2003 and employs regression analysis, finding support for these hypotheses. However, the effect of voting for the “party in power” varies depending on the specific party project. This research contributes to understanding the political uniqueness of closed cities, considering their regional characteristics and social capital.

Evaluation of the “Street and Abroad” Strategy Implemented by Political Opposition in Poland under the Rule of Law and Justice

After the 2015 parliamentary elections in Poland, the parties that moved to the opposition declared themselves the “total opposition” and adopted the “Street and Abroad” strategy, the aim of which was to organize anti-government protests in the country and to use foreign fora, including above all EU mechanisms, to fight the new right-wing government, criticize its actions and eventually remove it from power. The paper aims to assess the effectiveness of the strategy adopted by the Polish opposition after seven years of right-wing rule. The subject of particular interest is, on the one hand, the evaluation of the “Street” strategy on the example of mass protests concerning courts, abortion, and the media. On the other hand, the “Abroad” strategy was analyzed through the impact of the European Parliament’s resolution on social mobilization, electoral preferences, and the level of support for the ruling party. For this purpose, the leading indicators of support for opposition parties published by opinion polling centers were used in the examples analyzed.

Reading of ingroup politicians' smiles triggers smiling in the corner of one's eyes.

Spontaneous smiles in response to politicians can serve as an implicit barometer for gauging electorate preferences. However, it is unclear whether a subtle Duchenne smile-an authentic expression involving the coactivation of the zygomaticus major (ZM) and orbicularis oculi (OO) muscles-would be elicited while reading about a favored politician smiling, indicating a more positive disposition and political endorsement. From an embodied simulation perspective, we investigated whether written descriptions of a politician's smile would trigger morphologically different smiles in readers depending on shared or opposing political orientation. In a controlled reading task in the laboratory, participants were presented with subject-verb phrases describing left and right-wing politicians smiling or frowning. Concurrently, their facial muscular reactions were measured via electromyography (EMG) recording at three facial muscles: the ZM and OO, coactive during Duchenne smiles, and the corrugator supercilii (CS) involved in frowning. We found that participants responded with a Duchenne smile detected at the ZM and OO facial muscles when exposed to portrayals of smiling politicians of same political orientation and reported more positive emotions towards these latter. In contrast, when reading about outgroup politicians smiling, there was a weaker activation of the ZM muscle and no activation of the OO muscle, suggesting a weak non-Duchenne smile, while emotions reported towards outgroup politicians were significantly more negative. Also, a more enhanced frown response in the CS was found for ingroup compared to outgroup politicians' frown expressions. Present findings suggest that a politician's smile may go a long way to influence electorates through both non-verbal and verbal pathways. They add another layer to our understanding of how language and social information shape embodied effects in a highly nuanced manner. Implications for verbal communication in the political context are discussed.

Электоральные циклы в Грузии: опыт пространственного анализа

The article discusses three electoral cycles in Georgia: 2012, 2016, and 2020. Among the main issues in the political party programs that make the parties different are the territorial integrity of the country, relations with Russia and the collective West, as well as issues of economic stability that has become even more sensitive in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. Given these facts, the author seeks to understand how electoral support for the parties changed during the last three electoral cycles in Georgia municipalities. Besides, the author tries to uncover some possible patterns of electoral behavior that are closely connected with the present cleavages in Georgian society and economic situation. In order to answer the questions, the author used non-spatial models of spatial analysis. Firstly, the transformation of electoral preferences in Georgian municipalities is characterized with the use of cartograms of box blots of voting for Georgian Dream, United National Movement, and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia. Secondly, the author used multi-variable analysis on the basis of parallel coordinate plot (PCP) in order to analyze the voting patterns. When conducting the analysis, such indicators were included as the unemployment rate in municipalities, Georgian, Armenian, Azerbaijani, Russian, and Ossetia population, as well as Orthodox, Armenian Orthodox, and Muslim population. Electoral choice in Georgia is determined, among others, by the spatial factor, the ethnic and religious composition of Georgian municipalities, their economic indicators, as well as their position on the map, i.e., which country borders a particular Georgian municipality. Little support for United National Movement is shown by municipalities that border the Russian Federation excluding Kakheti. Besides, municipalities with a big proportion of Armenian population also show low electoral support for the party. At the same time, municipalities bordering Turkey actively vote for United National Movement. As for Georgian Dream, Georgians in municipalities bordering Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as along the Russian border, highly support the party since one of its core issues on the agenda is recreating the territorial integrity of the state. However, Kakheti and Mtskheta-Mtianeti show low electoral support for the party. In addition, this party promotes the idea of expanding economic and political ties with Turkey, albeit the bordering municipalities are not enthusiastic about the idea and grant lower support for the party as a result. Municipalities on the Russian, Turkish, and Armenian border at the same time show high support for Alliance of Patriots of Georgia, which is connected with religious, ethnic, political, and economic cleavages.

Understanding the Electoral Preferences of Beginner Voters in the 2020 Bulukumba Local Elections

Law no. 10 of 2008 concerning general elections states that first-time voters are those who are voting for the first time and are 17 years old or more or are/have been married and have the right to vote in general elections (and the Regional Head Election). New voters who have just entered voting age also do not have a broad political reach to determine where they should vote. So, sometimes what they choose is not what they expected. The aim of the research is to find out the preferences of novice voters in the 2020 Bulukumba regional elections. The type of research used is qualitative with a case study approach. The informants in this research were six (6) people consisting of the Bulukumba KPUD, political parties and first-time voters. The results of the research regarding the Political Preferences of Beginner Voters in the 2020 Pilkada in Bulukumba Regency are: first, sociological, the condition of beginner voters who are still unstable and have minimal understanding of politics tends to make their political attitudes and direction of support follow the family and community in the voter's environment. Second, psychologically, the emotional closeness and image of the candidate to first-time voters makes new voters participate as volunteers in supporting the candidate through campaign activities using a social media approach and competition activities. Third, Rational, the level of education of novice voters is a determining factor in voters' attitudes in determining political attitudes, where only a few novice voters make their choices through program analysis and candidate profiles obtained from various information.

Community Size and Electoral Preferences: Evidence From Post-Second World War Baden-Württemberg

Abstract We examine whether electoral preferences depend on a community's population size by studying post-Second World War Baden-Württemberg in Southwest Germany. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that the French administration zone prohibited German expellees from entering, contrary to the contiguous American zone. Population size positively predicts voting for the Social Democrats (the party advocating substantial government involvement in practically all domains) and negatively for the Christian Democrats (the small-government party advocating free-market policies). Results are neither driven by pre-existing voting patterns, religious compositions, and location- and time-specific unobservables, nor other measurable cultural, demographic, economic, or political characteristics. Alternative explanations pertaining to expellee voting behaviour or a backlash of natives against expellees appear unlikely – population size prevails as a predominant voting predictor.

Significance of the 2022 United States midterm elections for the African American community

The article is devoted to the study of the factor of black voters and politicians in the 2022 US midterm elections and their significance for the African American community as a whole. The paper examines the main reasons that contributed to the fall of Joe Biden's rating among the black population in the first two years of his presidency, as well as the measures taken by the White House administration to overcome this negative trend. The author of the article also touches on the topic of further strengthening the attention of the Republican and Democratic parties to the African American electorate during the 2022 election campaign. Finally, the study examines the results of the past congressional elections for the African American community, related to the assessment of the turnout of black voters, their electoral preferences, as well as the results of the performance of African American candidates.

How Ethnic Origin Shapes Political Preferences: Toward a Deeper Understanding of Asian American Identity

AbstractHow do Asian Americans think about their ethnic origin? How do ethnic identities affect political preferences? Drawing on interviews with a diverse group of Asian Americans, I provide a nuanced understanding of how they think about their ethnic origin and pan-ethnic identities. The findings reveal that ethnicity plays a significant role in shaping electoral preferences, as Asian Americans exhibit coethnicity preferences, conditional on partisanship. Moreover, I uncover several factors that have been underexplored in the existing literature, including transnational ties, news consumption, and political preferences on foreign policies related to their home country. This article provides a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of Asian American identities by showing that the ethnic origin roots of Asian Americans can have significant influence on their political interests and candidate preferences.

Presidential Debates and Electoral Preferences in Weakly Institutionalised Democracies: Evidence From 32 Latin American Elections

Previous research has shown that presidential debates have “minimal effects” on aggregate electoral preferences because they mainly reinforce people's pre-existing political preferences. However, most of what we know about the behavioural effects of debates comes from research conducted in the United States and other institutionalised democracies. We re-evaluate the effects of debates on electoral preferences by focusing on Latin American elections. Given higher levels of electoral volatility, weaker partisan brands, lower partisanship, and more personalised voter linkages, we expect that debates play a significant role in shaping vote choice in Latin America. We test these expectations by conducting an analysis of presidential debates on aggregated vote preferences in thirty-two elections across fourteen Latin American countries from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that presidential debates shape electoral preferences in countries with weakly institutionalised party systems.