Election Results Research Articles

Nagyító alatt a 2022-es olasz parlamenti választások

The 2022 parliamentary elections marked a turning point for the Italian political system in many ways. As a result of the measures approved and introduced over the past almost ten years to change the electoral system (electoral reforms, decisions of the Constitutional Court, constitutional amendments, parliamentary reforms, etc.), Italian voters had the opportunity to elect the new members of both chambers of the parliament under the same electoral system, for the first time in the Republican era. The purpose of the article is to present the steps leading to this historic moment by analysing in detail the different measures affecting the electoral system and their impact. The paper then describes the electoral results and explains the processes leading to the vast victory of Italy’s first female Prime Minister, with a particular focus on the return to the bipolar logic favoured by the electoral system following the release of the three-pole system in 2013.

Internet Usage, YouTube, and Conspiracy-Mindedness in the United States

Abstract The spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation poses substantial threats to democracy around the world. In the United States, entrenched political polarization is both a consequence and a ramification of the spread of biased and false information. Much of this misinformation is spread online, especially on social media. Of all the social media networks in existence, the video-sharing platform YouTube is the most significant incubator of right-wing conspiracist thinking. To what extent has internet usage affected conspiracy-mindedness in the U.S. during the Trump era? I analyze data from five waves of the Pew Research Center’s “American Trends Panel” to test the hypotheses that (1) being perpetually online, (2) keeping many social media accounts, and (3) relying on YouTube for news will increase perceptions of ‘fake news’, stoke conspiracist thinking, and help make democracy’s status in the U.S. ever more precarious. Findings indicate that reliance on YouTube for news is an especially powerful predictor of noticing fake news about COVID-19 and the 2020 U.S. presidential election; attitudes about voter fraud, Donald Trump’s challenges to the election results, and the January 6, 2021, insurrectionists; and deciding to stop talking to someone because of politics.

A Impact Analysis of Digitalized Voting System on Voting Behavior and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria

Election results in most African countries are hardly transmitted using digitalized devices. This has created room for suspicion and discrediting of electoral integrity in part of Africa. Citizens’ suspicion of the electoral process has not only made many African voters believe that votes hardly count, but it has significantly provoked tendencies of political apathy and indifference during elections in some African countries. Political apathy and indifference are partly responsible for the recruitment of mediocre persons to elective political offices, which in the long run, amount to bad governance. While the occupation of elective public offices by mediocre persons is antithetical to democratic consolidation, Africa’s electoral integrity largely depends on, and can only be sustained if election results are digitalized or transmitted in real time electronically. Although studies have extensively examined and identified factors such as competency, integrity, proven track records, vision, ideology, manifesto, and inducements, among others, as factors influencing voting choice or behavior, evidence is very little on how a digitalized transmission of election results, impacts on voting behavior and consolidates Africa’s democracy, using the elite theory. This article thus expanded knowledge on how a digitalized voting method influences voters’ decisions or choices using the qualitative method. Results indicated that a digitalized voting system could enhance vote count, public trust in election results, and the deepening of democracy in Africa. It concluded that a digitalized voting system has the potential to increase citizens trust in the electioneering process in Nigeria. This is a contribution to the general body of knowledge in e-voting and election administration. Keywords: Behavior, Consolidation Democracy, Digitalize, Voting System

American local government elections database

The study of urban and local politics in the United States has long been hindered by a lack of centralized sources of election data. We introduce a new database of about 78,000 candidates in 57,000 electoral contests that encompasses races for seven distinct local political offices in most medium and large cities and counties in the U.S. over the last three decades. This is the most comprehensive publicly-available source of information on local elections across the country. We provide partisan and demographic information about candidates in these races as well as electoral outcomes. This new database will facilitate a myriad of new research on representation and elections in local governments.

Digital dilemma: technology in the vote counting process for general elections and local head elections in Indonesia

The traditional methods of vote counting and recapitulation, which include manual and layered processes, are important to ensuring data security and addressing a lack of understanding of public information technology. However, it is essential to quickly and properly disseminate election results among an increasing number of survey findings within the community. Despite this contradictory scenario, it is imperative to employ information technology tools like SITUNG and SIREKAP to ensure transparent dissemination of election outcomes. The study applies a descriptive qualitative approach, collecting primary and secondary data sources including official documents, journal articles, and textbooks. By using three analysis techniques; first, by tabulating the data; second, to categorize the data; third, interpreting the findings based on the theoretical and construction of the data. The results of this study showed three main challenges to the use of digital-based recapitulation: first, the lack of a clear legal basis for the SITUNG and SIREKAP applications, which has triggered criticism from election participants and observers; second, incomplete system support characterized by limited network connectivity, which has created difficulties for field operators in the local level; and third, inappropriate data management in the SITUNG and SIREKAP applications, which included incorrect data entry. Election organizers should be aware that technology-based recapitulation data can become digital evidence for contesting parties in election courts.

State government control and partisan happiness

Does politics impact happiness? This paper evaluates how being a political “winner” or “loser” – whether one’s preferred party controls government or not – is linked to multiple measures of life satisfaction. Using Gallup survey data on self-reported well-being for Democrats and for Republicans within the U.S. states for 2008–2016 (a time period when party control of government changed in several states) and a difference-in-difference model with two-way fixed effects, I find consistent evidence that citizens report lower levels of well-being when the opposing party controls state government. The substantive effect is particularly large for Democrats living in Republican controlled states. Conversely, there is little evidence that citizens’ well-being is boosted when their own party controls state government. These findings have important implications for our understanding about how partisan competition and election outcomes can impact subjective well-being and further highlight the significance of negative partisanship for American public opinion.

Results of the Finnish parliamentary elections and their possible impact on Russian-Finnish relations

The article examines the results of the next parliamentary elections in Finland, which took place on April 2, 2023. The author assesses the performance of the main political parties in the period since the previous elections and considers the key positions of the election campaigns of the parties that passed to parliament in 2023. In order to identify the dynamics of changes in the political situation, the author conducts a comparative analysis of the results of the leading political parties in Finland in the elections of 2019 and 2023, and characterizes the parties that were represented in the parliament in the period from 2019 to 2023. The author considers the results of the government formed in December 2019 headed by the leader of the Social Democratic Party S.Marin, the possible reasons for the preservation of the high rating of the head of this government among the population and its impact on the course of the election campaign in 2023. Special attention is paid to the position of the Finnish leadership and leading political parties regarding Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Finland's support of anti-Russian measures and NATO membership has destroyed many years of trade and economic ties between the countries. The forecast for the further development of Russian-Finnish relations cannot be called optimistic: the mutual cooling of recent years is likely to continue. There is a chance to build new ties between Russia and Finland, but it requires certain efforts and counter steps from both countries.

Significance of the 2022 United States midterm elections for the African American community

The article is devoted to the study of the factor of black voters and politicians in the 2022 US midterm elections and their significance for the African American community as a whole. The paper examines the main reasons that contributed to the fall of Joe Biden's rating among the black population in the first two years of his presidency, as well as the measures taken by the White House administration to overcome this negative trend. The author of the article also touches on the topic of further strengthening the attention of the Republican and Democratic parties to the African American electorate during the 2022 election campaign. Finally, the study examines the results of the past congressional elections for the African American community, related to the assessment of the turnout of black voters, their electoral preferences, as well as the results of the performance of African American candidates.

THE AMBIVALENCE OF REGIONAL ELECTION DISPUTE RESOLUTION IN INDONESIA: The Dynamics of the Constitutional Court's Interpretation of Dispute Resolution Designs on Regional Election Results

THE AMBIVALENCE OF REGIONAL ELECTION DISPUTE RESOLUTION IN INDONESIA: The Dynamics of the Constitutional Court's Interpretation of Dispute Resolution Designs on Regional Election Results

Territorial imbalances in Colombia: ¿Can they explain why Gustavo Petro became president?

Introduction: Based on regional inequalities documented by economic historians related to land extension and use, this study aimed to associate them with economic growth and social development variables such as GDP, CCI, HDI, PI, and GINI. The goal was to gain a more comprehensive understanding of regional imbalances and to delve into each region’s administrative departments. As a parallel reference, the study proposes a link between these imbalances and the 2022 election results. Objective: To identify a development strategy for Colombia that integrates economic growth and social development, taking into account the historical inequalities in Colombian regions, using the Atlantic Coast, Central East, and West Regions as examples. Methods: This is a mixed-method research that combines growth and development rates with an interpretation based on the theory of potentials to evaluate and compare three Colombian regions. Results: The study reveals that regional development is multidimensional and that these imbalances must be addressed with a comprehensive approach. Conclusions: The research concludes the need to embark on agro-industrial projects with a sustainable focus on social economy, supported by micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises.

Squeezing Blood from a Turnip? The Resilience of Social Democratic Governmental Power in Western Europe (1871–2022)

ABSTRACT In recent years, a growing body of literature has revived its interest in social democratic parties, emphasising their allegedly irreversible crisis in Western Europe. However, all such accounts focus solely on electoral results, thus neglecting governmental power, the decisive factor to realise social democratic parties’ policy goals. To address this gap, the article tests whether the decline of social democracy is confirmed in terms of governmental power, for which an index that remedies the limitations of existing measures is employed. Through comparative longitudinal analysis on 20 Western European countries and more than 600 legislatures between 1871 and 2022, the article finds that the governmental power of social democracy has remained fundamentally the same as in the golden age of class politics. In particular, in contexts of high party system fragmentation and strong radical left competition, social democratic parties have still managed to secure relevant government positions despite their declining electoral performance.

Dynamics of Campaign, Press, and Public Discourse in Electoral Politics

ABSTRACT Utilizing agenda-building theory, we explore how campaigns and parties influenced press and public agendas during Florida’s 2018 midterm election. We investigate if the Gubernatorial and Senate campaigns transferred issue salience and affective attributes to press coverage and online public discourse. Results of a mixed-method computer-assisted content analysis suggest weak transfer of issue salience and affective attributes by the campaigns and parties to the press and public agendas. The DeSantis campaign and Republican Party were the most successful at influencing press coverage and public discourse. First-level agenda-setting was observed by press coverage on the Gillum campaign and Democratic Party's agendas. The symmetry between these findings and election results offers correlational support for the limited effects of first- and second-level agenda-building and -setting in state elections.

Repositioning Nigeria's Election Outcomes through the Synthesis of Wasted Votes and Proportional Representation: A Descriptive Approach to the 2019 Nigeria National Assembly Elections

Repositioning Nigeria's Election Outcomes through the Synthesis of Wasted Votes and Proportional Representation: A Descriptive Approach to the 2019 Nigeria National Assembly Elections

Partisan Self-Interest and Views on the Electoral College: How Electoral Inversions Activate Differences in Support for the System

Most Americans have little knowledge about why we elect the president through the Electoral College. This complex system that requires understanding the impact of 51 different elections on the outcome of the presidential election leads many Americans to desire the simple effectiveness of the popular vote method. Previous scholarship highlights a majority of Americans wanting to replace our current system with the popular vote. Political science research lacks a clear understanding of the impact of partisan self-interest on views of changing the presidential election method. In this paper we look at public opinion surveys over the last 45 years and find there was no clear partisan difference in views of changing the system before the electoral inversion of 2000. We argue that partisan self-interest was activated because of this electoral inversion. The inversion of 2016 led to a hardening of opinions on replacing the Electoral College with the popular vote.

How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a “Just Transition Agreement” on Spanish Election Results

Enacting stringent climate policy has proven politically challenging, not least because of concentrated losses in fossil fuel-producing communities. “Just transition” strategies have been proposed to mitigate this distributional challenge. Yet, little is known about how such strategies affect voting behavior. Using a mixed-methods approach, we exploit a local climate policy in Spain—a “Just Transition Agreement” (JTA) to phase out coalmining, support affected workers, and invest in affected municipalities—which was negotiated by the incumbent Socialist Party (PSOE) government with affected unions and businesses shortly before a national election. A difference-in-differences study shows that PSOE’s vote share in coalmining municipalities increased at the 2019 election relative to similar municipalities, implying that the JTA was electorally successful. Further statistical tests and elite interviews suggest that this electoral boost was driven by unions’ support of the JTA. Our findings have implications for how parties can craft popular climate policy.

Conspiracy Everywhere

Conspiracy seems to be everywhere, and not only in the United States, where the “rigged election” conspiracy led a US president to reverse the results of a national election. We consider what is distinctive about contemporary conspiracism and argue that the prevalence of fact-free conspiratorial narratives marks a shift from what Hofstadter called the “pedantic” style of conspiracy theory. We show how conspiracism today threatens democratic institutions and sketch how the articles in this volume (on conspiracism) advance our understanding of conspiracy and democracy.

The Loser’s Long Curse: How Exposure to Class Conflict Shapes Election Outcomes

Understanding the political consequences of civil war exposure is a challenging task, given the myriad of overlapping and at times divergent mechanisms involved. This article provides evidence of the persistent political legacy stemming from exposure to a violent class conflict. We revisit the Finnish Civil War of 1918 and first trace out the impact of local conflict exposure on electoral outcomes over a quarter-century period between the World Wars. To do so, we combine a difference-in-differences approach with historical data on the geographical distribution of civil war casualties and election outcomes. We document that the local electoral performance of left-wing parties that were associated with the insurgents was persistently and negatively affected by civil war casualties on both sides of the conflict. We also discuss potential mechanisms behind this finding and further show that the civil war had an enduring impact on the Finnish political landscape over a hundred years.

THE ELECTORAL SUCCESS OF THE (NORTHERN) LEAGUE IN ITALY (2008-2018). IS THE ECONOMIC DECLINE OR THE IDENTITARIAN ISSUES THE MAIN REASON FOR IT?

This article aims to analyze the rise and electoral success of the (Northern) League in Italy, for the period 2008-2018. The purpose of this analysis is to determine whether the economic difficulties encountered by the electorate or other factors, such as political and cultural ones, have influenced the growth and electoral success of the League in Italy. By analyzing both demand and supply-side data, the analysis shows that the League has had better electoral results in the years after the crisis when the economy has been improving than in the years when there has been a major economic shock. Regarding survey data on the supporters of the League, the analysis shows that the economy is among the least influential factors for them to support a right-wing populist party. On the contrary, the analysis shows that the main triggers for radical right populist mobilization have more to do with group values, identity issues, ethnic and cultural affiliation, xenophobic sentiments, skepticism towards foreigners, multiculturalism, and forms of Euroscepticism.

“Weighed, not counted”: territorial (mis)representation in Italian metropolitan council elections

Metropolitan cities were established by Italian Law no. 56/2014 (commonly known as the “Delrio Law”) as a new level of government, replacing and redefining functions previously performed by provinces in selected major urban areas. One of their three key governing bodies is the metropolitan council, a representative assembly the members of which are elected via an indirect, second-level, proportional, list-based system in which the electorate comprises all sitting mayors and councillors from metropolitan city municipalities. The election mechanism applies a differential weighting scheme that reflects the population size of the municipalities in which voters serve as mayors or councillors. Using the outcomes of the metropolitan council elections held in the years 2021 and 2022 in eight metropolitan cities, this study highlights the variety of ways (many of which appear to be largely unintended) in which demographic weighting bestows significantly greater (and, arguably, unwarranted) power to larger cities’ representatives, essentially disrupting the principles of territorial representation that the weighting scheme intended to embody. The study also focuses on how the legal framework for metropolitan council elections generates institutional instability via mandatory forfeitures and ensuing substitutions of seat vacancies. Finally, the author identifies potential adjustments to the electoral system – especially a proposal for the attenuation of disproportionate territorial representation via demographic weighting based on the so-called “square-root method”.

The Urban Voter: Emerging Trend and Changing Pattern

The recent phenomenon of growing urbanization in India has shifted the focus from rural vote to urban vote in electoral politics. The discussion on urban politics and urban vote revolves largely around two issues—first the issue of turnout and second, a somewhat different political choice among the urban voters compared to the rural voters. The two issues have been highlighted by the fact that urban constituencies have registered lower turnout compared to the turnout in rural constituencies. Among the former, the constituencies of big metropolitan cities register much lower turnout compared to the constituencies of small and medium towns. Results of various elections in the past indicate that the backbone of electoral support of the BJP during the late 1990s is its strong support among the urban voters. The BJP’s strong support base among the urban voters enabled it to emerge as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha during the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections enabling it to form a coalition government along with other regional parties. This article tries to seek answers to the question, why do we see this distinct difference in voting patterns among rural and urban voters, especially till 2009 Lok Sabha elections, though it has changed somewhat during the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections? Is it because the rural India and Urban India represent two different kinds of voters, or is it because the issues and concerns of rural and urban voters are vastly different from each other which make them vote differently?