Electoral Opportunities Research Articles

Multidimensional incongruence, political disaffection, and support for anti-establishment parties

ABSTRACTTo what extent do representational gaps between parties and voters destabilise party systems and create electoral opportunities for anti-establishment parties on the left and right? In this paper, we use multiple measures of party-partisan incongruence to evaluate whether issue-level incongruence contributes to an increase of political disaffection and anti-establishment politics. For this analysis, we use data from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES) for party positions and public opinion data from the European Election Study (EES). Our findings indicate that multidimensional incongruence is associated with disaffection at the national and European level, and that disaffected mainstream party voters are in turn more likely to consider voting for anti-establishment challenger parties. This finding suggests that perceived gaps in party-citizen substantive representation have important electoral ramifications across European democracies.

Issue yield, campaign communication, and electoral performance: a six-country comparative analysis

This article develops and tests a model that explains election outcomes on the basis of party strategy. It employs a new comparative dataset linking representative mass surveys from six European countries with Twitter analysis of campaign activity. The expectation is that parties whose issue agendas exploit electoral opportunities while avoiding risks will be rewarded at the polls. These risks and opportunities are modelled using issue yield, a general framework summarising public support, electoral alignments, and party credibility. Empirically, the article traces a three-step process: (1) the configuration of electoral risks and opportunities (which is captured through public opinion surveys) guides party communication (measured with Twitter data), and to the degree that (2) parties design their campaigns strategically (identified through issue yield), this in turn (3) improves their electoral performance (measured using official statistics). The analysis explains some of the most salient election outcomes of recent years.

Retos institucionales y no institucionales para el partido Fuerza Alternativa Revolucionaria del Común (FARC) en las elecciones legislativas de 2018

Este artículo examina los alcances y retos de la participación política del partido Fuerza Alternativa Revolucionaria del Común (FARC) a partir de la dinámica electoral y la evolución del conflicto armado y la violencia. La reflexión sobre la participación política de la FARC en el ámbito nacional se basa en los aportes de la literatura especializada en reincorporación política y en los resultados electorales para el Congreso de 2018. A través del software Arcgis se analizan los niveles de votación por la FARC en relación con la presencia de grupos armados, economías criminales y el asesinato de líderes, variables determinantes del bajo o alto apoyo electoral. Con la suma de estos elementos, esta investigación identifica varios factores institucionales y no institucionales que han incidido en la reincorporación política de las FARC-EP. Se subraya cómo, aunque las provisiones políticas para el acceso transitorio de la FARC a curules en el Congreso resultaron razonables para lograr una salida negociada a la guerra, la baja votación por el nuevo partido revela un futuro incierto para su continuidad, a pesar de las oportunidades electorales establecidas por el Acuerdo de Paz.

Melanin and Curls: Evaluation of Black Women Candidates

AbstractResearch on candidate evaluation has delved into questions of how voters evaluate women candidates, Black male candidates, as well as how candidates’ appearances may condition electoral opportunities. Combined, this scholarship has tended to focus on how race, gender, and skin tone privilege or undermine evaluations of Black male or White women candidates. We intervene to study Black women candidates and draw on research on colorism and Black women's hairstyles and ask: How does variation in skin tone and hairstyle affect Black voter evaluations of Black women candidates? We develop and test two hypotheses: the empowerment hypothesis and the internal discrimination hypothesis. We mostly find support for the latter. Importantly, we find that the interaction of dark skin and non-straight hair has mostly negative effects on Black men and women's trait evaluations, but a positive effect on Black women's willingness to vote for the candidate. Furthermore, this research shows that hair texture is an important aspect of responses to Black women candidates—hair is not just hair for Black women candidates. This research shows that understanding the effects of candidate appearance on voter behavior necessitates considering the intersection of racial and gender phenotypes.

Election cycles and mining-sector governance in post-conflict Kosovo

ABSTRACTPolitical business cycles are typically linked to the manipulation of fiscal or monetary policy instruments. In a recent article, Imami, Lami and Uberti (ILU) argue that opportunistic politicians may also choose to manipulate non-fiscal/non-monetary policy instruments. Here, we extend ILU’s study using time-series data on mining-sector licensing from post-conflict Kosovo (2001–2018). We find robust evidence that is consistent with electoral opportunism in the allocation of mining permits, despite the checks-and-balance mechanisms introduced by Kosovo’s international administrators in an attempt to reduce the politicisation of licensing. That said, the cycle effect is only observed prior to scheduled, as opposed to early, elections. Disaggregating the data by licence type, in addition, we find that the observed election cycle is driven primarily by the manipulation of licences for the mining of construction materials. We argue that, in the context of post-conflict Kosovo, this is the category of licences whose strategic manipulation offers the greatest pay-off to the incumbent. The results raise some questions about the feasibility of fighting political opportunism (and, relatedly, corruption) by establishing formal check-and-balance mechanisms.

The verdict in the polls: how government stability is affected by popular support

The idea that the stability of governments is affected by how they are performing in the polls is both intuitive and popular in the literature. When support is low the government might be inclined to replace parties or the prime minister in order to regain support, thus forming a replacement government. Alternatively, a government doing well in the polls might opportunistically try to schedule an early election to capitalise on its favourable prospects. But despite the popularity of the idea, it has thus far not been tested empirically whether government stability is in fact influenced by popular support. This article aims to address this lacuna. Using a relatively new dataset with more than 12,000 unique polls, and recently developed Bayesian models for pooling the polls, it is here shown that government stability is in fact impacted by popular support. Governments display clear signs of electoral opportunism when they are polling well and, conversely, dissolve the government, without calling an election, when polling is bad. The results are strongest when there are few parties in the government, since agreement on the timing for a discretionary termination is easier when fewer players need to agree.

Centre right and radical right party competition in Europe: Strategic emphasis on immigration, anti-incumbency, and economic crisis

We examine centre right and radical right party competition. We argue that centre right parties – particularly non-incumbents - recognise economic crises as electoral opportunities for radical right parties and respond with the strategic emphasis of immigration in mass appeals. To test this, we merge party performance data with expert surveys across 24 European Union countries to examine parties’ electoral performances during the 2008 economic crisis. We find that non-incumbent centre right parties benefited from emphasising immigration, performing better than radical right parties. Second, incumbent centre right parties that did not emphasise immigration lost out electorally, providing an opportunity for far-right parties to benefit from immigration in this economic context. Qualitative case studies further suggest that while these effects appear to be more pronounced in Western Europe, the results are consistent across the East and West. The findings suggest a reconsideration of immigration as an exclusive issue for far-right electoral success.

The Colour of the Elected: Determinants of the Political Under-Representation of Blacks and Browns in Brazil

Abstract It appears to be beyond dispute that Brazilian politics is overwhelmingly White. Recent surveys indicate that the proportion of people of colour in the federal parliament is around 20%. But despite such obvious marginalisation, little is known about the causes of this political under-representation. This paper attempts to shed light on the main filters driving out non-Whites, i.e. Blacks and Browns, from Brazilian politics. To this end, we have carried out a survey of the skin colour of candidates to a seat in the City Council of Brazil’s two largest cities: São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, in the 2012 elections. Given the lack of official records on the race or skin colour of these candidates, we chose to submit their photos, made publicly available by the Supreme Electoral Court, to classification by a team of researchers. The results have allowed us to gauge the extent to which the political alienation of non-White Brazilians is due to: (a) bias in party recruitment; (b) differences in educational capital and personal wealth between White and non-White candidates; (c) inequalities in the distribution of party and electoral resources; or (d) the electoral preferences of voters themselves. Apparently, the electoral opportunities of Blacks and Browns reflect the difficulties that these groups face when trying to ascend to the small elite of candidates that have the biggest funding and the most votes.

Disillusionment and disenchantment at the fringe: explaining the geography of the One Nation Party vote at the Queensland election. [A version of this paper was delivered to the Regional Science Association. Australian and New Zealand Section. Conference (1998: Tanunda, SA)

The 1998 Queensland State Election resulted in Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party capturing 22.7 per cent of the State’s primary vote and winning 11 of the 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly. The impressive performance of this political party in its first official electoral opportunity has changed the short-term political landscape and left the major political parties pondering why nearly one in four Queenslanders did not vote for them. This paper represents the most detailed analysis so far on the characteristics of One Nation voters in Queensland. Using booth level data, and collector district level information from the 1996 Census, a highly accurate description of One Nation voters is provided. In particular, the paper places an emphasis on the strong showing of One Nation on the fringes of urban areas, which saw the election of One Nation members in the seats of Ipswich West and Caboolture (outskirts of Greater Brisbane), Thuringowa (outskirts of Townsville) and Mulgrave (outskirts of Cairns). Copyright. Monash University and the author/s

Partisan defections in contemporary Uganda: the micro-dynamics of hegemonic party-building

ABSTRACTParty defections have increasingly become a major trend of Ugandan multiparty politics, not only for individual elites at the national level and in the parties’ leadership but at the grassroots level by local party members too. These shifts of allegiance are now systematically part of the staging and imagery of President Museveni’s electoral campaigns. A common explanation of this phenomenon points at the inconsistency of partisan loyalties and ideologies. It is often taken for granted that defections are expressions of clientelism, political opportunism and above all democratic immaturity and a misunderstanding of multipartyism. This paper argues on the contrary that mass defections reflect the social technology of the National Resistance Movement hegemonic rule at the local level, and the constraints for opposition parties whose structures it co-opts. They are part of the monopolisation of organisational initiatives at the grassroots level by the regime. Defections are not simply a symbol of electoral opportunism but part of a routine economic posture in a context of straddling lines between the economic and political spheres. Following up the trajectories of two specific groups of defectors from Teso over several years, this paper seeks to give precise insights on the local presence and rooting of political parties, their modes of mobilisation, recruitment, their repertoires of action, and more generally on the transformation of identities, partisan practices and political activism but also on the hegemonic ruling party’s mode of governance at the local level. This micro-sociologic approach opens windows on how hegemony is built in a dialogic way with local political entrepreneurs and vote brokers. Hegemonic rule therefore also contains its own limits as it requires a permanent renegotiation with individual actors embedded in a set of local power relationships.

Party Positions about European Integration in Germany: An Electoral Quandary?

Given the rise of EU-scepticism in Germany and elsewhere, spatial models suggest that the SPD and the CDU/CSU have incentives to move towards a more critical position about integration. However, mainstream parties have developed a pro-integration reputation over several decades so it is difficult for them to adopt a stance reflecting outright opposition to Europe's integration. A comparison of party positions in 2008 and 2013 shows that the SPD hardly changed its policy stances on EU issues, whereas the CDU/CSU moved noticeably to a more EU-critical stance. However, situating German parties within the West European universe of party families shows that both remain quite positive about integration. The upshot of this is to illustrate the ‘blind corner’ of party representation on integration issues in the German party system which created electoral opportunities for the Euro-sceptic AfD.

The Effect of the Electoral Calendar on Politicians' Selection into Legislative Cohorts and Legislative Behavior in Argentina, 1983–2007

How do electoral opportunities affect politicians' career strategies? Do politicians behave strategically in response to the opportunities provided by the electoral calendar? We argue that in a legislature that combines nonstatic ambition with a staggered electoral calendar, different kinds of politicians will have dissimilar preferences towards running in concurrent or midterm elections. More specifically, politicians with no previous executive experience should strategically run in midterm legislative elections in order to increase their visibility among voters, while more experienced politicians should opt for concurrent elections. We support these claims with data from the Argentine Chamber of Deputies between 1983 and 2007.

Electoral Opportunism and Vertical Fiscal Imbalance

Evidence of political budget cycles from cross-country studies has been rationalized as coming from the voters' cost to process the available information and asymmetric information. This explanation has also been adopted in most cross-province studies, leaving aside variables related to the incentive structure of fiscal federalism. This paper investigates electorally induced fiscal fluctuations in Argentina for the period 1985–2007. Province-level dynamic panel data reveal that vertical fiscal imbalances in subnational districts fuel fiscal expansion and changes in expenditure composition, favoring current expenditure to the detriment of investment, in election years. Vertical fiscal imbalances make electoral opportunism cheaper and more profitable.

Ideological Flexibility and Electoral Success: An Analysis of Irish Party Competition

This article argues that Ireland's major party elites enjoy an unusual degree of ideological flexibility, which in turn provides the parties with an uncommon capacity to adjust programmatically when changing electoral opportunities, or challenges, present themselves. Evidence from two originally designed parliamentary surveys, conducted in sharply different contexts in the 2007 and 2011 elections, supports this finding. A closer examination of individual TDs’ policy positions reveals that TDs possess considerable flexibility to adapt their policy appeals. Although parties may appear programmatically similar at the aggregate level, the high degree of internal ideological heterogeneity reinforces that the autonomy individual TDs have to alter their positions within their local electoral context. These findings point to a conclusion that the presence of a high degree of ideological flexibility, especially at the level of individual TDs, not policy positions in themselves, is critical for understanding electoral politics in Ireland. This conclusion stands in contrast to the popular perspective that competition over policy may alter the nature of party competition in Ireland. The findings also provide a deeper appreciation of how Irish parliamentarians are able to assume policy positions among their constituents that often differ from the party line in legislative votes in parliament.

Changing movements, evolving parties: the party-oriented structure of the Hungarian radical right and alternative movement

Two parties gained seats in the Hungarian parliament for the first time in the general elections of 2010. Both of these parties had a strong movement background, which seemed to be more obvious in the case of the radical right Jobbik, but the green LMP party also had strong ties to the Hungarian alternative movement. In this article I analyze the structural changes of the movements, which resulted in the dominance of the party-oriented structure. First, I look at the transformation of these movements from the democratic transition in 1989 until the 2010 elections. In the second part of the article I analyze the national context structure, the external environment of the movements. I conclude that in case of the green-alternative movement the new electoral opportunities, the shortcomings of political consultation and the lack of strong allies favored the party-oriented structure. For the radical right movement the expanded access to the party system, the ineffective policy implementation capacity of the state and the repression by the authorities pushed the movement’s structure to the party-oriented model.

Voters' Perceptions of Policy Convergence and the Short‐term Opportunities of Anti‐immigrant Parties: Examples from Sweden

In contrast to previous studies on the political opportunity structures of anti‐immigrant parties, this article argues that voters’ perceptions of policy convergence between mainstream alternatives affect their short‐term propensity for supporting such partisan challengers. Drawing upon leading research in the field, two hypotheses about voters’ perceptions of policy convergence, in two policy areas (economic redistribution and immigration), are presented. The main findings in the article suggest that policy convergence between mainstream parties has a more immediate impact on the electorate than commonly recognised. Using unique data from Sweden, the article shows that perceived convergence between Swedish mainstream parties in the field of immigration policy increases potential support for the anti‐immigrant party, the Sweden Democrats (SD). Yet the results are the opposite when it comes to perceptions of convergence in the field of economic‐distributive policies. In contrast to widespread assumptions, the article thus finds that policy convergence between mainstream parties only appears to create short‐term opportunities for anti‐immigrant parties if it takes place on their own policy turf. These results indicate, in other words, that the potential electorate of the SD – which is a wider group than hard‐core xenophobes – is largely driven by preferences about immigration policy, rather than the short‐term urge to protest against mainstream parties. The article, therefore, concludes that the cordon sanitaire to isolate the SD in Sweden – which is underpinned by de facto convergence between mainstream parties on immigration policy – could improve, and is unlikely to curb, the short‐term electoral opportunities of this party.

Competencia interna y adaptación partidaria en el frente amplio de Uruguay

Entre 1994 y 2004, el Frente Amplio de Uruguay experimentó un importante proceso de renovación ideológica y programática y de reformulación estratégica, lo que le permitió aprovechar con éxito las oportunidades de crecimiento electoral emergentes del contexto socioeconómico y político. A partir de la reconstrucción analítica de ese exitoso proceso de adaptación partidaria, en este artículo se cuestiona la frecuente asociación entre institucionalización partidaria y rigidez estratégica. De igual modo, se sostiene que, dentro de ciertos límites, la fraccionalización intrapartidaria no necesariamente es un factor negativo para el desempeño electoral de los partidos.AbstractBetween 1994 and 2004, the Uruguayan Frente Amplio (FA) experienced a considerable renovation of its ideological and programmatic features, as well as an important reformulation of its strategy. This changes allowed FA to exploit with success the electoral opportunities emerging from the socio-economic and political context. Based on an analytical reconstruction of this successful party adaptation process, this article questions the frequent association between institutionalization and strategic rigidity. It is also argued that within certain limits, the intra-party fractionalization is not necessarily a negative factor for electoral performance.

Strategic Incentives, Issue Proximity and Party Support in Europe

The Issue Yield model predicts that parties will choose specific issues to emphasise, based on the joint assessment of electoral risks (how divisive is an issue within the party support base) and electoral opportunities (how widely supported is the same issue outside the party). According to this model, issues with high yield are those that combine a high affinity with the existing party base, together with a high potential to reach new voters. In previous work, the model showed a remarkable ability to explain aggregate issue importance as reported by party supporters, as well as issue emphasis in party manifestos. This paper tests the implications at the individual level by comparing a conventional model where issue salience is determined from manifesto data with a revised model where issue salience is determined by issue yield. The empirical findings show that issue yield is a more effective criterion than manifesto emphasis for identifying the issues most closely associated with party support in the minds of voters.

The British Conservative Government and the raising of the school leaving age, 1959–1964

This paper establishes and explains the important role of the Conservative Government of 1959–1964 in supporting the raising of the school leaving age in Britain from the age of 15 to 16. This was a significant and high-profile national issue that generated much educational, social and political debate around conflicting priorities during this period, and was emphasized in both the Crowther Report of 1959 and the Newsom Report of 1963. The Treasury was strongly opposed to the proposal due to its high financial cost. There was a large element of electoral opportunism involved in the Conservative Government’s approval of raising the school leaving age (ROSLA), announced in January 1964, but it also highlighted deeper complexities and reservations in Conservative attitudes to ROSLA as well as a long-term ambition to consolidate education as a Conservative issue.

From Defeat to Landslide Loss: A Seat-level Model of the 2011 NSW Election

The 2011 NSW election produced the largest two-party swing in recent Australian election history, ending 16 years of Labor government. It raises the prospect of the end of Labor's dominance of NSW politics. This paper focuses on the consequences of ALP instability for the Party's electoral opportunities and strategy in the lead-up to its 2011 defeat. The authors single out the mass departure of Labor MPs prior to the election and the loss of Greens preferences as interesting problems for empirical analysis. They explore both loss of incumbency and preference effects in a seat-level (n = 93) regression model and comment on the significance of the findings for NSW Labor.