Electoral Map Research Articles

Interactive Map to Illustrate Seat Distributions of Political Party Support Levels: A Web GIS Application

Canada's new electoral order of 338 districts, updated in October 2013, was in effect for the October 2015 federal election. A Web GIS application was developed using the new electoral map to display seat projections generated by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP). Seat projections convert, or “project,” public opinion support for the major political parties into a distribution of electoral seats for each party, based on a detailed analysis of an aggregation of polls. The map was published through ArcGIS Server, and coding language HTML and JavaScript implemented the required functions. Two key interactive features of the map include: (1) pop-up windows that provide the 2011 election result and LISPOP's current seat projection when hovering over a constituency; and (2) a drop-down menu that direct users to a desired region. The use of ArcGIS software enables fast and effective updates before and during the election.

Back to the Future? What the Politics of the Late Nineteenth Century Can Tell Us about the 2016 Election

The politics and party system of the late Civil War era are strikingly similar to what we have in the present day. Elections were consistently close; race, culture, immigration, and populism were salient issues; and states almost always voted for the same party in election after election. The states that supported Democrats then, however, mostly support Republicans now, and vice versa. In 1896, though, a new party system began to emerge. In this article, we evaluate bygone elections alongside contemporary ones to assess whether 2016 might be the beginning of something new in American electoral politics. Are national politics likely to follow the familiar pattern of the last four presidential races, or are Americans going to be presented altogether different choices? Our analysis suggests that race and populism are guideposts for potential change in 2016: if the concerns of race continue to define political conflict, the electoral map should change little, but if economic populism eclipses race as it did in 1896, a new political era may be ushered in in America.

The Fractured Right to Vote: Democracy, Discretion, and Designing Electoral Districts

Electoral boundary commissions and Parliament have recently transformed Canada’s federal electoral map. The 2015 federal election was contested on a new map of 338 ridings, after 30 seats were added to the House of Commons by the Fair Representation Act and commissions set the boundaries of each district. The introduction of independent, non-partisan commissions in 1964 to draw the maps has achieved great success in eliminating the previously entrenched practice of gerrymandering. The extensive discretion granted to commissions to set boundaries, however, generates a new series of potential problems that can undermine the fairness of the electoral map. This article takes the new map as an opportune time to analyze the Canadian experience with electoral boundary commissions and, particularly, their exercise of discretionary authority. It demonstrates that the ten provincial commissions have adopted divergent approaches to their common task of establishing electoral boundaries. The commissions are at times in direct conflict with one another on the meaning and scope of fundamental principles of redistricting, such as representation by population, community of interest, and minority representation. These conflicting approaches have gone beyond reasonable disagreements over the specific content of the relevant legislative and constitutional principles. The exercise of the discretion held by the commissions in these competing ways has frustrated the principle of the political equality of all citizens. This article argues that the discretion granted to Canadian electoral boundary commissions should be restructured in order to better achieve a common realization of the right to vote.

UK election cartography

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we explore the history of the cartography of UK elections; we illustrate how it has changed as a result of technological change and also due to the changing demands of electoral map consumers. We then focus on the way in which maps were used (and possibly also abused) across many of the various media outlets that reported the 2015 General Election in the United Kingdom. The review reveals a fascinating consensus in terms of map type, style and functionality though, naturally, the extent to which various maps were useful varies. However, what is most interesting is seeing their form coalesce towards a common format. A new default appears to be emerging.We then offer two alternative maps of the UK 2015 General Election, which contribute to the development of modified symbology for thematic cartography. In the first, we demonstrate how an artistic representation can have benefits in displaying what are essentially very messy data. In the second, we create a new 3D hexagonal cartogram. In summary, we suggest that despite the apparent coalescing it might be too early in the cartography of elections to think that a final form has now been reached as our experiments show.

Britain's changed electoral map in and beyond 2015: the importance of geography

Three geographical elements play major roles in the operation of the UK's electoral system: the geography of support – how spatially segregated each party's voters are; the geographical clustering of those segregated areas; and the constituency boundaries within which those geographies are nested. In the period from 1970 to 2010 as a result of the interaction of these three, Britain's apparent three‐party system (four‐party in Scotland and Wales) was represented in a series of geographically separate two‐party systems. At the 2015 election, although there was little change in support for the two largest parties from the overall situation in 2010, there were substantial changes in the volume and geography of support for the five smaller parties. Those latter changes produced very different geographies in 2015 from those in 2010, with major likely consequences for the next contest in 2020.

Electoral Cleavage Map of Russia: Based on an Analysis of the 2011 State Duma Election and the Regional Elections of 2012–14

The article presents a methodology for the research of cleavage structure in post-Soviet Russia on the regional level (municipalities as cases). This methodology is applied to the results both of the 2011 Duma election and elections to regional legislatures over the period 2012–14. The electoral cleavage map of today's Russia is constructed on the basis of the 2011 election results. All Russian regions are divided into five groups by the degree of their political competitiveness: (1) the least competitive group of six North Caucasian republics; (2) the group of four regions with the single ‘authorities versus community’ electoral cleavage (Mordovia, Mari El, Tatarstan and Tyumen oblast); (3) the ‘under-competitive’ cluster of 19 regions (including Adygea, Bashkortostan, Kalmykia, Tuva, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kemerovo, Orel, Tambov and Ulyanovsk oblasts); (4) the ‘average’ cluster of 31 regions (including Moscow) and (5) the most competitive cluster of 20 regions (including Saint-Petersburg). It also concludes that the 2012 ‘party reform’ led to the ‘entropy’ of electoral preferences, an augmentation of political space dimensions and indirectly, a growth in the number of electoral cleavages in elections to regional legislatures (2012–14). It is recognized that in some regions the level of political competition has really increased, but the reason was not the appearance of new participants, but relaxation of administrative pressure on the strata depending on the state support. In these regions, especially in ethnic republics, not so much a liberalization of the electoral process but inter-clan conflicts took place.

Subcarpathian Voivodship on the Electoral Map of Poland (1989-2014)

The aim of the article was to present electoral activities diversification as well as political preferences of the citizens of the Subcarpathian Voivodeship in years 1989-2014. The measure of the conducted analyses were the results of parliamentary and European Parliament elections, by means of which it was possible to indicate recurring cyclicality of right-wing political sympathies of the citizens of the Subcarpathian Voivodeship, as well as noticable, with regards to the whole country, election turnout. The primary part of the conducted analysis was an attempt to answer the question of what determined the change of political preferences and if contemporary electoral activity and political sympathies reflect historical and cultural determinants. Key words: Subcarpathian Voivodeship, elections, electoral, political parties

Wybór opcji czy osoby? Determinanty zachowań wyborczych mieszkańców województwa podkarpackiego w wyborach do Parlamentu Europejskiego w 2014 r. w świetle badań empirycznych

Selecting the person? Determinants of voting behavior inhabitants of the Subcarpathian Voivodeship in elections to the European Parliament in 2014 in the light of empirical research The aim of the article was to present factors influencing voting behaviours of the Subcarpathian Voivodeship citizens during European Parliament elections in 2014, in the light of the conducted empirical research. The indicators that guided voters when casting votes to ballot boxes were analysed on the basis of a set of variables, such as: the attractiveness of election programmes and political parties, competences of candidates, the role of the Catholic Church during the election campaign, or the awareness of voters (self-reliance in making electoral decisions or its lack). The analysis and interpretations from the conducted research were preceded by a voting description of the Subcarpathian Voivodeship, treated, on a electoral map of Poland, as a specific region due to its above average support given to candidates and parties of right-wing provenance. In the final part conclusions drawn from the analytical process were presented. Key words: personalization, Subcarpathian Voivodeship, European Parliament elections, voting behaviour

Redrawing Europe’s Map

Redrawing Europe’s Map

Still Not Equal? Visible Minority Vote Dilution in Canada

This article takes the long-standing fact of deviations from the principle of representation by population in Canada as the starting point and asks whether the consequence is the dilution of visible minority votes. It calculates visible minority voting power and compares it to the voting strength of voters who are not visible minorities for the 2004 federal electoral map using 2006 Census data and for provincial electoral districts. We conclude that vote dilution exists and is concentrated in the ridings with the largest proportions of visible minorities. Visible minority vote dilution carries special significance in light of demographic, policy and constitutional considerations. The article concludes by offering some suggestions for how the electoral boundary commissions that set the contours of ridings can address visible minority vote dilution, as well as possible legislative amendments.

The Twentieth-Century Reversal: How Did the Republican States Switch to the Democrats and Vice Versa?

In the past few elections, rich states have gone for the Democrats and poor states have voted Republican, but 30 years ago there was no such pattern, and 100 years ago things looked completely different. The twentieth century reversal is not a simple story of voters standing still and parties moving. Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal has happened at the state level but is more complicated locally, with urban/rural divides associated with many of the largest changes. Economic issues have been and remain most important in any particular election, but it is plausible that social issues can be the determining factor that can, over a century, reverse the electoral map.

Black Boxes as Capacities for and Constraints on Action: Electoral Politics, Journalism, and Devices of Representation

Actor-Network Theory, as a theoretical and methodological approach, is particularly insightful when applied to domains of social activity that are in flux, thus making it particularly useful for ethnographic research about unsettled socio-technical systems. Drawing from field research conducted over the last decade, this paper presents two empirical cases that reveal how ANT enables researchers to trace the associations that form the socio-technical objects of political and journalistic practice. We focus on “black-boxed” technical objects, exploring two distinct, yet complementary, analytical moments that emerged during our respective fieldwork. First, we detail the work that an electoral map performs in stabilizing networks of political representation and creating new capacities to act. We then go inside a journalistic organization to reveal a moment of breakdown when the black box of a content management system unravels and fails to do what it is seemingly supposed to do, throwing news production into a tenuous state. The paper concludes by interrogating our empirical findings through the lens of cultural practices, highlighting a few ways sociologists might need to supplement ANT-analysis with a more robust understanding of culture and symbolic belief systems.

Misconceptions and Realities of the 2011 Tunisian Election

AbstractIn response to the 2011 Tunisian elections and the uncertainty surrounding Tunisia's future, we offer an empirical explanation of the election's results using socioeconomic and demographic variables. We aggregate many political analyses to describe the main parties and give insights into their strengths and weaknesses. We also examine common misconceptions advanced during the elections. Finally, we include a proposed electoral map that could be used by politicians to plan their future political strategies.

Analyse et compréhension du vote lors des élections présidentielles de 2012

Résumé Les élections présidentielles 2012 s’inscrivent dans la continuité des changements politiques géographiques observés depuis une quinzaine d’années : progrès de la gauche dans l’Ouest de la France et dans les centres-villes, forte implantation du Front national dans les espaces périurbains et dans les territoires ouvriers, recul de la droite à l’exception des zones résidentielles tertiarisées. Cet article, à partir d’une base de données originale à l’échelle du canton, analyse les évolutions récentes de la carte électorale (2007-2012), confronte à moyen terme (1981-2012) ces résultats à certaines variables socio-économiques du recensement de population, et propose quelques pistes d’analyses spatiales (principalement la distance à la ville).

‘Somewhat more disruptive than we had in mind’1: The Boundary Commission for England's 2011 Proposed Redistribution of Parliamentary Constituencies

In February 2011 the UK Parliament passed an Act that both reduced the number of MPs to be elected to the House of Commons and significantly altered the rules for the definition of Parliamentary constituencies. After six redistributions in which organic criteria—MPs representing places with a community of interest—dominated the redrawing of constituency boundaries, the new rules gave precedence to an arithmetic criterion: all constituencies must have electorates within 5 per cent of the national quota (average). Seven months later the Boundary Commission published its initial proposals for a new set of 502 constituencies implementing these new rules. This paper evaluates the amount of change to the country's electoral map that this involves, identifies the main features of the new constituency configurations, and assesses their likely impact on UK political life.

Las elecciones del Frente Popular en la provincia de Alicante

The Popular Front elections were the last and most critical one made during the Second Spanish Republic. Confronted the Spanish in two major electoral blocks, these elections were experienced with particular intensity in the province of Alicante, where the Republic had taken deep roots, especially in the industrial towns and in the capital. For the first time, according to the official canvass of the Provincial Electoral Board, results on scrutiny of votes are sorted out by town in order to compose a comprehensive electoral map of the whole province. The Popular Front won the elections in a clear but tight manner, although, above all, it was a democratic and clean process.

Redesenhando o Mapa Eleitoral do Brasil: uma proposta de reforma política incremental

Este artigo oferece uma proposta de reforma incremental do sistema eleitoral da Câmara dos Deputados. A natureza incremental da proposta se funda na suposição segundo a qual o sistema político é uma arquitetura complexa e delicada, sendo a possibilidade de piorá-lo com mudanças ambiciosas e intempestivas bem maior do que a de aperfeiçoá-lo. A proposta mantém o sistema de representação proporcional com lista aberta, mas altera duas variáveis-chave, uma vez que reduz a magnitude média das circunscrições eleitorais e estabelece uma regra proporcional de distribuição de cadeiras entre partidos coligados. A operacionalização da reforma leva a um novo desenho do mapa eleitoral do país, com circunscrições eleitorais menores dentro de 12 estados. O artigo também apresenta os resultados de um exercício de simulação feito com base nos dados das eleições de 2006 que recalcula a composição partidária da Câmara dos Deputados a partir das regras aqui preconizadas.

Equalise and Reduce: A New Electoral Map for the UK

The Conservative-led coalition has pledged to redraw the UK's electoral map. Ron Johnston examines the proposed changes. The Conservative-led coalition has pledged to redraw the UK's electoral map: quotas will be equalised, the number of MPs reduced and traditional boundaries changed. Ron Johnston reviews these proposals and assesses their likely electoral impact.

General Election 2010

The election in May transformed the electoral map of the UK. Danny Dorling and Benjamin Hennig show which parties won and lost, and which areas changed hands.

Democracy in Dangerous Places: Colombia Vote with Paramilitary Preferences

This paper discusses the problem of paramilitary violence in Colombia and its effects on democracy. The elections were part of the purpose of self defense and constituted a disguised form to retain its drug trafficking economy. The impacts on institutional technology have been negative: representative democracy, the electoral system and voting, they were not the same. With paramilitary violence changed the electoral map in areas contested by the traditional political parties. Voting with paramilitary preferences mean the biggest challenge is constitutional democracy in Colombia.