Electoral Mandate Research Articles

Argentina: Back to Peronism

Argentina: Back to Peronism

Democracy, Compromise and the Representation Paradox: Coalition Government and Political Integrity

AbstractCoalitions are often condemned as undemocratic and unprincipled because of the compromises they involve. Politicians are accused of betraying the commitments they made during the election. Paradoxically, proponents of this view suggest that if compromises are to be made they should be pragmatic and based on policy rather than principle. This article disputes this thesis and defends compromise as both principled and democratic. The first section distinguishes a shallow compromise based on the maximal satisfaction of exogenously defined preferences from a deep compromise resulting from reasoning on principle, and argues it proves impossible to avoid the latter. The second section suggests that the obligation to compromise forms part of the ethos of democracy, whereby citizens must agree despite their disagreements. The third section concludes by showing that while representatives will almost certainly betray their electoral mandate if obliged to make only shallow compromises, they can legitimately engage in deep compromises for their voters when they reason as they do.

The Lessons of the New Deal: Did Obama Learn the Right Ones?

AbstractIn 2009, as in 1933, there was a major economic crisis and an ensuing recession. A discredited outgoing American president had been succeeded by a charismatic newcomer with a clear electoral mandate and large congressional majorities. This article asks why Obama, whose economic advisers explicitly drew lessons from the New Deal's economic policy, has been so unsuccessful politically. It notes that the Obama administration failed to get money into the hands of ordinary Americans quickly enough. Because the scale of the economic crisis of 2009 was less than that of 1933, congressmen of both parties have not come under the sort of pressure from desperate constituents to back their president that Roosevelt was able to exploit in the 1930s. As health care reform showed, Obama learnt the wrong lessons from Roosevelt about bringing in reform at a time of economic crisis. Above all, Obama has had to contend with the long history of popular distrust of the efficacy and intentions of the federal government that has characterized American politics since the 1970s.

Authoritarianism and humanitarian aid: regime stability and external relief in China and Myanmar

Severe natural disasters encourage the international community to donate humanitarian aid (materials and personnel) to the affected country, which is critical for its human security. Some authoritarian regimes, however, rationally reject such aid despite the dire situation of their people. When an authoritarian regime decides whether to accept foreign humanitarian aid for severe natural disasters or not, it considers two political factors: (1) the risk and (2) the need to accept aid, which is a type of exogenous shock that may threaten the stability of the regime and its survival. This paper considers the factors of risk (regime type, domestic struggle, and international pressure) as inherent and contingent determinants of regime stability, and the need factors by looking at the different types of sources from which the regime gains its legitimacy (electoral mandate, economic development, or ideology). If the risk is less and the need is more, the regime is more likely to accept the aid, otherwise not. The two authoritarian regimes hit by severe natural disasters – the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis–caused floods in Myanmar – are considered as salient cases for the external variation between authoritarian regimes. This paper also finds some critical internal variation within an authoritarian regime and its differing responses during the 2008 Sichuan earthquake and two other disasters – the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2010 Qinghai earthquake.

Subnational electoral regimes and crisis recovery in Argentina and Mexico

The confluence of Latin America's volatile economic development patterns and transition to democracy has given rise to a proliferation of work on the national-level political causes and consequences of economic shocks and recovery rates. We explore the subnational electoral determinants of crisis recovery through analysis of growth rates in Mexico's thirty-one states and Argentina's twenty-three provinces following their economic declines of 2000–2002. Consistent with a theory that views intra-national variations in democracy as critical to understanding broader development patterns, we find that subnational electoral “regimes” significantly affect provincial recovery rates. Provinces that have an established electoral legitimacy prior to the onset of an economic shock, and those in which the governor enjoyed a substantial margin of victory, had significantly stronger recovery rates than those provinces stuck in a subnational regime transition with a sitting executive who lacked any claim to an electoral mandate.

Turning failure into success: what does the case of Western Australia tell us about Canadian cannabis policy-making?

Cannabis policy in Canada is a puzzling affair. Since the 1960s and as recently as 2006, several policy windows have opened promising evidence-based cannabis law reform only to be slammed shut before achieving meaningful change. This ‘saga of promise, hesitation, and retreat’ has motivated Canadian cannabis researchers to investigate the reasons behind this policy inertia. These single-jurisdiction analyses have resulted in interesting yet necessarily tenuous findings. Fischer's (1999) Policy Studies article suggests the need for an analysis of Canadian cannabis policy in comparative context and offers Australia as a point of departure. This article addresses this analytic task by examining two recent case studies in cannabis policy. Specifically, borrowing Kingdon's (1995) concept of a policy window, it contrasts Canada's failure to decriminalise minor cannabis offences between 2001 and 2006 with Western Australia's successful decriminalisation of cannabis possession and production for personal use between 2001 and 2004. In particular, it appears that a lack of support from law enforcement and cannabis users, conflicting evidence and risk associated with a lack of an evaluation plan all combined with a weakened electoral mandate for the government to contribute to a perception that cannabis decriminalisation was not politically feasible. Additional variables worthy of further inquiry are also discussed.

Energy polarization and popular representation: Evidence from the Russian Duma

In this article we introduce the term “energy polarization” to explain the politics of energy market reform in the Russian Duma. Our model tests the impact of regional energy production, party cohesion and ideology, and electoral mandate on the energy policy decisions of the Duma deputies (oil, gas, and electricity bills and resolution proposals) between 1994 and 2003. We find a strong divide between Single-Member District (SMD) and Proportional Representation (PR) deputies High statistical significance of gas production is demonstrated throughout the three Duma terms and shows Gazprom's key position in the post-Soviet Russian economy. Oil production is variably significant in the two first Dumas, when the main legislative debates on oil privatization occur. There is no constant left–right continuum, which is consistent with the deputies' proclaimed party ideology. The pro- and anti-reform poles observed in our Poole-based single dimensional scale are not necessarily connected with liberal and state-oriented regulatory policies, respectively. Party switching is a solid indicator of Russia's polarized legislative dynamics when it comes to energy sector reform.

Electoral Mandate and Party Cohesion: Does It Matter in Lithuania?

Legislators elected on a party list vote (proportional representation system) are ostensibly more disciplined than those elected in single-seat district contests. However, previous efforts to test this hypothesis in cross-national studies have led to ambiguous results, as contextual factors were found to be at least as important as the type of mandate. In the case of Lithuania, which has adopted a mixed electoral system, the behaviour of elected deputies in 962 roll-call votes between 2003 and 2006 reveals that deputies from single-seat constituencies, rather than deputies on party lists, are more disciplined in the Lithuanian Seimas. This unexpected finding may be related to the peculiar dynamics of mixed electoral systems.

Organizational Leadership, Ethics and the Challenges of Marketing Fair and Ethical Trade

This article critically evaluates current developments in marketing fair trade labelled products and “no sweat” manufactured goods, and argues that both the fair trade and ethical trade movements increasingly rely on strategies for bottom-up change, converting consumers “one cup at a time”. This individualistic approach, which we call “shopping for a better world”, must, we argue, be augmented by more collectivist approaches to affect transformative change. Specifically, we look at the concept of mission-driven organizations pursuing leadership roles in developing affinity relationships to promote fair and ethical trade and developing ethical spaces. Increasingly, a range of organizations are restructuring their operations, so that their mission is reflected in ethical practices throughout their operations, including product sourcing and product sales. First, ethical purchasing policies operated by non-profits and public agencies represent markets through which fair/ethical products reach end consumers. The efforts discussed to create ethical spaces through direct democracy and electoral mandate build on a broad-based affinity with the principles of fair and ethical trade. Second, we explore the potential for “mission-driven” non-profit organizations, such as zoos and aquaria for merging their mission of conservation education with their marketing activities through the operation of their shops and cafes. Interesting initiatives to link the conservation message to food choices is being undertaken by a number of zoos and aquaria, while there is scope for increased linkages in the giftware sold in their shops.

Subnational Foreign Policy Actors: How and Why Governors Participate in U.S. Foreign Policy

U.S. governors lead overseas missions seeking investment and promoting trade, establish international offices, meet with heads of government, receive ambassadors, and take positions on foreign policy. This paper describes how governors are involved in participating in U.S. foreign policy, explains why governors seek to voice their views and play an active role in working with leaders and issues beyond their state's borders, and argues that U.S. states and governors need to be better conceptualized and considered in both international relations theory and foreign policy analysis. This study reveals that governors with greater institutional powers—such as appointment and budgetary control—as well as personal powers—derived from their electoral mandate, ambition, and public approval—are more likely to have higher degrees of foreign policy activity. These actions are more likely to take place during wartime and also from governors representing U.S. states bordering Canada or Mexico.

The rural constitution and the everyday politics of elections in Northern Thailand

The Thai coup of 19 September 2006 derived ideological legitimacy from the view that the Thaksin government's electoral mandate was illegitimate because it had been “bought” from an unsophisticated and easily manipulated electorate. There is nothing new about this argument, nor its use in justifying military interference. Political commentators have asserted regularly that the Thai populace lacks the basic characteristics essential for a modern democratic citizenry. Accounts of the deficiencies of rural voters often focus on their parochialism, their lack of political sophistication, the vulnerability to vote buying and the influence of electoral canvassers (hua khanaen). This article challenges this negative portrayal of rural electoral culture. Drawing on ethnographic field work in northern Thailand, it is argued that the everyday politics of elections is informed by a range of different electoral values that shape judgements about legitimate, and illegitimate, political power in electoral contexts. These local values can be usefully thought of as comprising a “rural constitution.”

Energy Regulation, Roll Call Votes and Regional Resources: Evidence from Russia

This paper investigates the relative impact of regional energy production on the legislative choices of Russian Duma deputies on energy regulation between 1994 and 2003. We apply Poole’s optimal classification method of roll call votes using an ordered probit model to explain energy law reform in the first decade of Russia’s democratic transition. Our goal is to analyze the relative importance of home energy on deputies’ behavior, controlling for other factors such as party affiliation, electoral mandate, committee membership and socio-demographic parameters. We observe that energy resource factors have a considerable effect on deputies’ voting behavior. On the other hand, we concurrently find that regional economic preferences are constrained by the public policy priorities of the federal center that continue to set the tone in energy law reform in post-Soviet Russia.

Electoral Rules and Presidential Support in the Russian Duma, 1996-2003

Mixed-member electoral systems blend representation by using one set of electoral rules that encourages local representation and one set of electoral rules that encourages national representation. This mixture of electoral rules could, potentially, create a legislature divided along the lines created by these different electoral mandates. While the hypothesis has been tested in several studies, there is no conclusion on whether they are a feature of mixed-member legislatures. This article adds to this debate by examining whether differences in electoral mandate created differences in support for the presidential legislative agenda. I argue that a mandate divide is more likely to occur when the president maintains a weak party or coalition in the legislature. Based on an analysis of support for the presidential agenda in the Russian Federation between 1996 and 2003, I show a mandate divide existed when the Russian president had weak support in the State Duma.

Presidential Support in the Russian State Duma

Recent comparative research on presidential systems has analyzed the ways in which presidents build majorities for their legislative agendas. Through an analysis of roll‐call votes from the 2000‐03 Russian State Duma on a set of issues reflecting President Putin's legislative agenda, I examine the impact of parliamentary party affiliation, policy preferences, issue type, and electoral mandate type on structuring floor support for the president. I also assess the implications of a mixed electoral system for building legislative coalitions in multiparty legislatures. Further, my findings shed light on Putin's recent reforms of the Duma's rules and procedures and the country's electoral system.

When “No” Means “Yes to Revolution”

The lessons of history suggest that pluralist constitutional structures present myriad ways for opponents to block radical overhaul of social and economic structures. Antimajoritarian checks and balances make redistribution of wealth and changes in property regimes difficult to implement. When these mechanisms fail, the capitalist class seems willing and able to abandon constitutional politics and fall back upon the state's night-watchman, the military. In dependent nations, the weight and resources of the hegemon can be brought to bear to influence the outcome. Often, however, institutional and extraconstitutional tools of reaction are unnecessary in polyarchies.' Elections themselves seem to suck the life blood out of revolutionary movements. The Venezuelan recall election of August 15, 2004, evidently accelerated rather than retarded revolutionary momentum. On that day Venezuelans went to the polls in extraordinary numbers to vote on an opposition petition to revoke (hence, revocatorio) President Hugo Chivez's electoral mandate two years before he was to complete his term. To achieve this objective and thereby terminate the Bolivarian Revolution, the opposition Coordinador Democritica (CD) needed to win more votes than the president had received in his second electoral victory of July 2000 (following the adoption of the new constitution). Not only did the CD fail to exceed that number but the No option triumphed with 59 percent of the vote. The majority said yes to the Chavista revolutionary project. This article will examine the ways in which electoral politics and defense of a revolutionary regime were made compatible in Venezuela. After a review of some theoretical perspectives on elections and social change, a comparison of the Venezuelan case with earlier episodes of electoral politics in a revolutionary context (Nicaragua and Chile), and a review of the political and constitutional issues that had to be resolved to allow the recall election to take

The Philippines in 2004: New Mandate, Daunting Problems

National elections in the Philippines took place on May 10, 2004, providing incumbent President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo with a six-year electoral mandate and control of both houses of Congress and most of the local governmental positions. However, the Arroyo administration faced a worsening budget deficit and debt crisis, increased incidence of hunger and poverty, pervasive corruption scandals in the military, inconclusive peace negotiations with communist guerrillas and Muslim separatists, and an unexpected twist in the country's relations with the United States, provoked by a crisis in the Philippines' involvement in Iraq.

Presidential Mandates and the Dynamics of Senate Advice and Consent, 1885-1996

We examine the dynamics of Senate advice and consent for executive branch nominations from 1885 to 1996 using multinomial logit and hazard analysis. We add to the literature by considering the importance of elections on the process. In particular, we assess how presidential mandates might influence the duration and success of nominations to the executive branch. The analysis captures political nuances previously unconsidered that follow from the different ways that nominations terminate, whether through confirmation, rejection or withdrawal by the president, or expiration. As shown previously, divided government matters, especially during periods of ideological polarization in the Senate. Nominations fail more of ten and take longer. However, perceptions of electoral mandate strengthen the president’s position vis-à-vis the Senate, smoothing the president’s path to a more effective transition and staffing of the federal bureaucracy.

The transatlantic alliance

The Bush administration considers itself vindicated in its foreign policies by the narrow but convincing electoral mandate which the president won on 2 November. Yet it would be well-advised in its second term to worry about the eroding popular basis of the Atlantic community. Similarly, European governments cannot afford to use their disagreements with the administration, or their continuing anger over Iraq, as alibis for neglecting growing security threats. They ought also to recognise that intra-European disagreements about coping with American power – especially if stoked by shrill anti-Americanism – will hamper the project of European integration.

Power and prudence: the presidency of George H.W. Bush

When George H. W. Bush took office in January 1989, he brought to the presidency an impressive resume. A former member of Congress, national party leader, CIA director, ambassador to China, and two-term vice president, he had the credentials and experience for a uniquely successful presidency. Less than four years later, the American electorate resoundingly proclaimed his administration a failure. Many pundits and scholars have echoed the voters' judgment. In a considered and balanced reassessment, Ryan J. Barilleaux and Mark J. Rozell ask whether the public and the pundits have applied the wrong criteria of presidential evaluation. Looking at the context in which Bush came into office, Barilleaux and Rozell argue that his strategy of incrementalism may indeed have been right for the times and any failure may have lain only in Bush's inability to convince the public of that. Moreover, the authors disagree with the common assessment that Bush pursued incrementalism only in domestic policy, arguing that it characterized his foreign policy as well. Power and Prudence is a study in presidential evaluation. It represents a challenge to the conventional wisdom that has developed on the first Bush administration and presents an important reinterpretation of the leadership of a poorly understood president. This thought-provoking analysis suggests that the circumstances of his presidency may have limited Bush's opportunities to articulate or achieve far-reaching policy objectives. These circumstances included the lack of an electoral mandate, Bush's succession to a very popular and ideological leader, his inheritance of a daunting budget deficit, and the situation of divided government. The authors' interpretation of the Bush administration is supported by interviews with members of Bush's White House staff and the limited archival record thus far opened to scholars. A detailed read into the workings of a contemporary presidency, Power and Prudence will appeal to presidential scholars as well as the politically minded reader.

India's Fine Balance

THE POST-9/11 AGENDA WHEN SEPTEMBER 11 CAME, India responded rapidly and deci sively. On learning of the terrorist attacks on the United States, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee convened his key advisers and they quickly decided that India would offer its full support for the U.S. war on terrorism. Their decision was driven in part by India's own problems with ter rorism. For a decade, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (isi) had been orchestrating a nasty proxy war against India in Kashmir. Although the insurgency there was rooted in Kashmiri opposition to Indian rule, the isi helped militant groups train, equip, and movejihadis, or freedom fighters, across the Line of Control, which separates Indianand Pakistani-held Kashmir. In joining with Washington, New Delhi hoped to transform this latest and bloodiest chapter of 50 years of Indo-Pakistani conflict into part of the global war against terrorism-with Pakistan's isi cast in the role of al Qaeda and India as the victim. Seizing an opportunity to outmaneuver Pakistan while improving India's relationship with the United States, however, is not the only item on Vajpayee's post-g/hl agenda. He and his government must also handle domestic political crises and deadly communal violence while recharging India's faltering economy. Failure to balance these various challenges could risk the government's electoral mandate and slow India's rise to great-power status.