Electoral Instability Research Articles

Subnational Policymaking in an Era of Political Instability: Developing a New Typology for Comparative Analysis

Political parties and their representatives play a crucial role in policymaking processes. However, increasing electoral volatility and unpredictability in democracies across Europe and beyond have disrupted the once relative stability of both national and subnational politics. This article offers fresh insights into the potential impacts of these transformations on subnational policies within multilevel systems. It challenges the prevailing “stability bias” in existing literature. Through an examination of the links between electoral instability and central–regional interactions, a new typology is developed to facilitate comparative analyses of territorial policy dynamics and their outcomes.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Abstract Does political ambivalence increase vote switching? While the effects of ambivalence on vote switching have been investigated in the American political system, its application to multi-party systems has not been explored. To address this gap, this article investigates the effects of ambivalence on vote intention switching and vote switching in Germany's multi-party system, which has recently experienced electoral instability. Using the German Longitudinal Election Study (gles), the article teases out the mechanics of party ambivalence, leader ambivalence, and party-leader ambivalence. The results suggest that ambivalence increases the probability of voters switching parties during the pre-election campaigning period and between two consecutive elections. Ambivalence therefore has important implications for vote switching and for understanding the underlying determinants of electoral volatility in twenty-first-century politics.

REGIONAL PARTY SYSTEM OF NORTHERN IRELAND: EROSION OF BIPOLARITY

The subject of the article is the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland in 2000-2010s, as well as the factors contributing to the observed changes. The research is based on the theoretical framework of J. Lane and S. Ersson and is chronologically outlined by the period of 1998-2021. Cross-temporal comparative analysis was used as a key research method. The parameters of the comparative analysis include the following variables: number of parties, effective number of parties, number of significant parties, fragmentation of the party system, ideological polarization and electoral instability. The first part of the article is devoted to the characteristics of the theoretical and methodological research design. The second part is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland, which is based on the study of structural and ideological elements. In the final part, the results and key findings of the study are presented, including the characteristics of the key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system. The results of the study demonstrate the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland regarding two parameters - electoral stability and ideological polarization. The degree of electoral stability of the regional party is slightly decreasing due to the redistribution of electoral preferences from unionist parties to alternative ones. The change in the parameter of ideological polarization of the regional party system is observed in two directions - the erosion of bipolarity, as well as the centripetal tendencies of ideologically extreme party actors. The key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland at the present stage are the following: instability of the regional political system based on ethno-confessional criteria; the issue of European Union membership and the future status of Northern Ireland; changes in the demographic structure of the regional community.

¿Quiénes cambiaron de partido durante la Gran Recesión? Un estudio de 12 países de Europa occidental

Los niveles de volatilidad electoral tras la Gran Recesión de 2008 fueron récord en la mayoría de los países de Europa occidental. Entre las principales causas de esta inestabilidad electoral destacan el desarrollo negativo de la economía, la crisis de los partidos tradicionales y el cambio de los temas de competición política. A nivel individual, se desconoce qué factores propiciaron que los electores cambiasen de preferencia partidista después de la Gran Recesión. Además, en general, se sabe poco sobre las diferencias entre un elector estable y uno volátil. Este estudio de 12 países de Europa occidental tras la crisis económica concluye que el modelo del votante económico no siempre explicó el cambio de preferencia partidista después de 2008, mientras que los sentimientos de desafección política se encuentran entre las principales razones para entender el cambio de partidos entre elecciones.

Salvini’s success and the collapse of the Five-star Movement: The European elections of 2019

ABSTRACTThe European Parliament elections of 2019 in Italy can be considered as a crucial turning point for the national political system. Indeed, both the balance of power among parties and the governmental dynamics were deeply affected by the outcome of the 2019 elections. In a context of notable electoral instability, an almost perfect turnaround among the two partners of the so-called yellow-green majority occurred: Matteo Salvini’s League doubled its vote share compared to the 2018 parliamentary elections, while the Five-star Movement halved its support. By revealing the asymmetry in the distribution of power in Parliament and in the electorate between the two governing partners, the election outcome marked the beginning of the end for the first Conte government. It eventually led to the unexpected reconciliation between the M5s and the Democratic Party, which in turn resulted in the formation of the second Conte government at the end of the summer. This article analyses the outcome of the European Parliament elections of 2019 in Italy. In particular, it focuses on the context of the electoral campaign and trends in public opinion, the election results in terms of turnout and party support, and the vote shifts experienced by the main parties between 2018 and 2019. Finally, the article also discusses the implications of the election outcome for the evolution of the Italian party system

Negative representation and instability in democratic elections

The challenge of understanding the collective behaviors of social systems can benefit from methods and concepts from physics [1-6], not because humans are similar to electrons, but because certain large-scale behaviors can be understood without an understanding of the small-scale details [7], in much the same way that sound waves can be understood without an understanding of atoms. Democratic elections are one such behavior. Over the past few decades, physicists have explored scaling patterns in voting and the dynamics of political opinion formation, e.g. [8-13]. Here, we define the concepts of negative representation, in which a shift in electorate opinions produces a shift in the election outcome in the opposite direction, and electoral instability, in which an arbitrarily small change in electorate opinions can dramatically swing the election outcome, and prove that unstable elections necessarily contain negatively represented opinions. Furthermore, in the presence of low voter turnout, increasing polarization of the electorate can drive elections through a transition from a stable to an unstable regime, analogous to the phase transition by which some materials become ferromagnetic below their critical temperatures. Empirical data suggest that United States presidential elections underwent such a phase transition in the 1970s and have since become increasingly unstable.

From Ferromagnets to Electoral Instability

From Ferromagnets to Electoral Instability

From ferromagnets to electoral instability

An electoral model predicts that polarized and alienated voters lead to unstable elections, like phase transitions in an Ising model. Such physics-inspired models may help political scientists devise electoral reforms to quench instability.

Влияние гражданских инициатив на трансформацию партийной структуры ФРГ

The article is devoted to the crisis of representativeness of the party system in Germany. The author pays the main attention to the evolution of the main political parties in Germany in the period after reunion. The article considers the evolutionary transformation of people's parties, their role in the political system of representative democracy. The author analyzes the phenomenon of the party state of Germany in conditions of increasing electoral instability. In this regard, civic initiative is a method of broadening the horizon of representative democracy. The article considers the ability of civil initiatives as a form of political struggle to form sustainable alternative political party associations. Assessing the results of the influence of the civil initiatives on the transformation of the party system in the Federal Republic of Germany, the author notes that the new social movements that emerge as an alternative to the people's parties subsequently take the form and paradigm of traditional parties.

Does the Iron Curtain Still Exist? The Convergence in Electoral Volatility between Eastern and Western Europe

AbstractThe literature on party system change and electoral volatility in post-communist Europe tends to make a clear-cut distinction between Central and Eastern European (CEE) party systems and Western European (WE) ones. The former are unstable and unpredictable and electoral volatility is driven by the continuous emergence of new political parties. Conversely, electoral stability is the rule in the latter, and volatility is associated with electoral shifts among established parties. This conventional wisdom suffers from three potential sources of bias: case selection, time coverage and method. By correcting these biases, this article investigates whether the traditional division between CEE and WE party systems has been levelled as regards volatility. To do so, it presents evidence based on an original data set of electoral volatility and its internal components covering 31 WE and CEE party systems since 1990. It finds that a process of asymmetric convergence in the levels of electoral volatility is taking place between the two regions, with Western Europe approaching Central and Eastern Europe with increasing electoral instability.

Situating the Radical Left in Contemporary Europe

The sociopolitical context of post-2008 Europe is ripe for the revival of the radical left as a viable force against the hegemony of neoliberal capitalism and the politics of austerity. Political space on the left has been opened up owing to extreme electoral instability and to a significant decline among centrist parties, which, in violation of their principles, have been instrumental in imposing austerity policies. The polarization has led also to a dangerous rise of the far right. These developments need to be examined in the context of Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

Party system volatility, regeneration and de-institutionalization in Western Europe (1945–2015)

Despite a great flourishing of studies about Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, the issue of party system institutionalization has been widely neglected in Western Europe, where the presence of stable and predictable patterns of interactions among political actors has been generally taken for granted for a long time. Nevertheless, party system institutionalization is not something that can be gained once and for all. This article proposes a theoretical reconceptualization and a new empirical operationalization of party system (de-)institutionalization. Furthermore, it tests the presence of patterns of de-institutionalization in Western Europe from 1945 to (March) 2015 (336 elections in 19 countries) by using an original database of electoral volatility and of its internal components (regeneration and alteration). Data analysis shows that Western Europe is facing great electoral instability and party system regeneration and that many countries have experienced sequences of party system de-institutionalization, especially in the last two decades.

A New Approach to Estimating Electoral Instability in Parties

Recent scholarship has identified problems in the measurement of party system instability. To limit the conflation of different sources of instability in party systems (e.g., electoral shifts between stable parties and instability in parties, such as mergers, splinters or new parties), this article introduces a new indicator of electoral instability in parties, tests its robustness and construct validity and demonstrates its usefulness empirically. The indicators of party instability and the accompanying data of twenty-seven European democracies, 1987-2011, will be valuable resources in comparative research on the interplay between elite and mass behavior, party and electoral systems and democratic consolidation.

All Fall Down? The Prospects for Established Parties in Europe and Beyond

Examing four recently published works , this review essay reflects on ongoing debates the changing basis of party competition in Western and Eastern Europe. It considers the extent to which reserarch on congruence between voters and parties and the role of political organisation leaves established parties potentially vulnerable to collapse. This appears to be an issue more sharply posed in Eastern Europe where party organisation may not contribute to party survival as effectively as initialy appear to be the case. However, models of party system collapse derived from the Latin Americal experience suggest that persistent electoral instability and the prevalence and success of new anti-establishment parties in Eastern Europe may prevent the type of specular implosions witnessed in Venuzuala and Italy.

Che ne pensi, elettore? Un sondaggio all’uscita dai seggi nelle elezioni comunali del 2012 in un borgo toscano

This article provides a deep description about local politics in Rignano sull’Arno, a small village near Florence, focusing on the features of “red” territorial political subculture that have ceased to exist, as well as those that still remain a part of voters’ behaviour. To begin with, I will draw attention to the political and electoral history of the village since 1946; going on to describe the main traits of local electors, with reference to a survey that accounted for 1220 voters, carried out during the 2012 administrative elections. I will concentrate on social and demographic characteristics, searching for a link between these qualities and the electoral results. From here I will examine the voting patterns of the local population and the motives behind such voting behaviour. I will consider the main role played by candidate’s personal characteristics in infl uencing the voters, to the detriment of party identifi cation, political values and ideology, which are becoming less and less relevant. Further topics I will illustrate in this paper are the types of sources that people gathered their information from during the election campaign and the time at which they decided how to vote. Finally, electoral instability and the changes in voter’s behaviour between the last two local elections will be analysed.

A New Approach to Estimating Electoral Instability in Parties

Recent scholarship has identified problems in the measurement of party system instability. To limit the conflation of different sources of instability in party systems (e.g., electoral shifts between stable parties and instability in parties, such as mergers, splinters or new parties), this article introduces a new indicator of electoral instability in parties, tests its robustness and construct validity and demonstrates its usefulness empirically. The indicators of party instability and the accompanying data of 27 European democracies, 1987–2011, will be valuable resources in comparative research on the interplay between elite and mass behavior, party and electoral systems, and democratic consolidation.

Path Shifting of the Welfare State: Electoral Competition and the Expansion of Work-Family Policies in Western Europe

What explains the surprising growth of work-family policies in several West European countries? Much research on the welfare state emphasizes its institutional stickiness and immunity to major change. Yet, over the past two decades, governments in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom have introduced important reforms to their welfare regimes, enacting paid leave schemes, expanded rights to part-time work, and greater investments in child care. A comparison of these countries reveals a similar sequence of political and policy change. Faced with growing electoral instability and the decline of core constituencies, party leaders sought to attract dealigning voter groups, such as women. This led them to introduce feminizing reforms of their party structures and adopt policies to support mothers' employment. In all three cases, women working within the parties played an important role in hatching or lobbying for these reforms. After comparing three countries that moved in a path-shifting direction, this article engages in a brief traveling exercise, examining whether a similar set of dynamics are lacking in two countries—Austria and Italy—that have moved more slowly in reforming these policies. Against the prevailing scholarly literature that emphasizes path dependence and slow-moving change, this article reveals the continued power of electoral politics in shaping redistributive policies.

Market Reform, Programmatic (De)alignment, and Party System Stability in Latin America

Although democratic regimes in Latin America since the early 1980s have been surprisingly durable, party systems in much of the region continue to experience very high levels of electoral instability. A critical juncture approach to institutional change suggests that variation in party system stability is related to the impact of market liberalization in the 1980s and 1990s on the programmatic alignment—or dealignment—of partisan competition. Market reforms that were adopted by conservative leaders and opposed by a major leftist rival aligned party systems programmatically, allowing societal opposition to be channeled into institutionalized forms of competition that were highly stable in the postadjustment era. By contrast, bait-and-switch reforms adopted by populist or leftist leaders were programmatically dealigning for party systems, leaving them vulnerable to highly destabilizing reactive sequences in the aftermath to the reform process—including mass social protests, the demise of historic conservative parties, and the outflanking of traditional populist or leftist parties by more radical, anti-neoliberal outsiders. The political dynamics of market-based economic adjustment thus heavily conditioned the ways in which party systems would process the postadjustment revival of populist and leftist alternatives in the region.

For God (or) country: The hydraulic relation between government instability and belief in religious sources of control.

It has been recently proposed that people can flexibly rely on sources of control that are both internal and external to the self to satisfy the need to believe that their world is under control (i.e., that events do not unfold randomly or haphazardly). Consistent with this, past research demonstrates that, when personal control is threatened, people defend external systems of control, such as God and government. This theoretical perspective also suggests that belief in God and support for governmental systems, although seemingly disparate, will exhibit a hydraulic relationship with one another. Using both experimental and longitudinal designs in Eastern and Western cultures, the authors demonstrate that experimental manipulations or naturally occurring events (e.g., electoral instability) that lower faith in one of these external systems (e.g., the government) lead to subsequent increases in faith in the other (e.g., God). In addition, mediation and moderation analyses suggest that specific concerns with order and structure underlie these hydraulic effects. Implications for the psychological, sociocultural, and sociopolitical underpinnings of religious faith, as well as system justification theory, are discussed.

Dominant Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Africa

In a recent publication in this journal, Mozaffar and Scarritt claim to have found a puzzling combination of low fragmentation and high volatility in African party systems. However, if we look at national party systems rather than Africa-wide averages, include regime type as a variable and specify dominance, we find three different constellations: dominant party systems with relatively low volatility, non-dominant and pulverized party systems with high volatility and dominant authoritarian party systems with high volatility. The real surprise is that dominant parties in authoritarian regimes have higher electoral instability than dominant parties in democracies. The analyis is based on data from 78 elections in 20 African countries with at least three consecutive multiparty elections.