Electoral Geography Research Articles

Выборы в Украинское Учредительное собрание (декабрь 1917 - январь 1918 г.): ход кампании, кандидатские списки и результаты голосования по округам

The paper discusses the elections to the Ukrainian Constituent Assembly in December 1917 - January 1918, when 400 - 425 candidates were to be elected in 23 districts. However, the armed conflict between Central Rada and the Council of People's Commissars allowed elections only in 11 districts (Volhynia, Yekaterinoslav, Kiev, Poltava, Podolia, Kherson, and Chernigov Governorates, Romanian and Southwestern fronts, the Black Sea and Baltic fleets). The elections were won by the Ukrainian Socialists-Revolutionaries (SRs), with the Bolsheviks being second. For the first time in Russian and foreign historiography, the article provides full voting results for all 11 districts based on the protocols of the Main and District Election Commission from the Central State Archives of Supreme Bodies of Power and Government of Ukraine (TsDAVO of Ukraine). In some cases, the materials of uezd and local commissions are also used. Each district has a corresponding table that shows official names of party lists, the number and percentage of votes gained, and the number of mandates. The paper ends with a summary table with the results of voting throughout Ukraine, as well as the distribution of mandates between the lists that passed to the Constituent Assembly. The author examines the electoral geography of Ukraine and suggests why the voters of the Ukrainian Social Revolutionaries, who won the elections by a huge margin, did not support their representatives in January-February 1918 and made no resistance to the Bolshevik troops advancing on Ukraine.

Региональные тенденции электоральной поддержки латвийских партий: фактор соседства

The article analyses the neighbourhood effect in the voting behaviour of the Latvians at the four recent parliamentary elections, the ethnic and national leaning of parties considered. The study expands a set of electoral geography tools by adding modern techniques of spatial analysis as well as by increasing the knowledge on the position of the Russian speakers within Latvia’s political party landscape. The research aims to evaluate the role of the neighbourhood effect at Latvian elections and identify stable spatial voting clusters. The degree of spatial autocorrelation and changes in it were analysed for each parliamentary party and the non-parliamentary but still influential Latvian Russian Union (LRU). Statistically significant spatial clusters of high and low support were identified and compared; their steadiness over the study period was examined. The structure of these clusters is generally the same for the ‘Russian’ parties (Harmony and the LRU), whilst the ‘Latvian’ parties are characterized by greater spatial diversity. The analysis shows that regions bordering on Russia have clear spatial clusters where election results correspond to the parties’ attitudes towards Russian speakers and the Russian Federation. The ‘Russian’ parties and those more or less favourably disposed to Russian speakers (For a Good Latvia, For Latvia from the Heart) have clusters of high support in the area and the ‘Latvian’ parties of low. This pattern, however, may be due to the high proportion of the non-Latvian population in Latgale (a region with strong historical connections with Russia) and the character of the development of the border area, rather than to the proximity to the Russian border.

Local voting at local elections revisited: ‘Friends and neighbors voting’ at mayoral elections in rural Poland

Voters' tendency to support local candidates, often referred to as ‘friends and neighbors voting’, is a spatial-political phenomenon studied for over 70 years. The last decade has seen a revival of interest in this issue. Relevant studies typically focus on large-scale national electoral contests, such as national parliamentary elections. The research efforts targeting local elections are, by contrast, scarce, in most cases dating back to the 1970s. In this article, we address this relative gap in the electoral geography literature and study ‘friends and neighbors voting’ at the most recent set of mayoral elections in Poland, held in 2018. Based on a rich dataset, covering elections in over 700 rural municipalities, we demonstrate strong local candidate effects in both voter choice and voter turnout. The results point to the potential relevance of both geographic distance and a place (locality) attachment; voters tend to prefer candidates living close to them and candidates enjoy an additional surplus of votes in their home localities. Our results also tend to echo the sparse previous findings emphasizing the possibility that the presence of a local candidate boosts voter turnout in a given area. While the limitations of our data do not allow unequivocal conclusions about the exact mechanisms driving the aforementioned effects, we put forward a number of plausible, grounded conjectures as to how such effects may operate.

Themes, approaches, and methods in the geographical analysis of Czech and Slovak parliamentary elections: a systematic review

This article reviews the field of electoral geography in Czechia and Slovakia. It systematically analyses selected publications to identify the most and least frequently researched topics, theories, and methods. Most of the analyzed studies strived to determine the factors underlying the uneven geographical distribution of election results. Issues of turnout and geographical representation were the least common. The cleavage theory was the most frequently applied theoretical approach, although most studies did not apply any theory. Only one study used the qualitative methodology, whereas the rest relied on quantitative methods. Most often, analyses were performed at the scale of districts and municipalities. The article identifies possible directions for future research in the electoral geography of Czechia and Slovakia.

Electoral Geography of Bosnia and Herzegovina – is there anything beyond the ethnic rule?

ABSTRACT The majority of experts consider ethnicisation the defining factor in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political life. Our objective is to uncover what other factors affect party performance and what, if any, territorial pattern different from the ethnic one, can be drawn. We argue, based on quantitative analyses, that besides the “ethnic rule”, other social cleavages (like the urban-rural one) with territorial patterns are also present in the country, though they are less significant. In the the entity of Federation ethnic polarisation is a significant contextual factor, while in the party competition of the entity of Republic of Srpska mainly non-ethnic factors are decisive.

TREND PENGUNDIAN DALAM PILIHAN RAYA UMUM 1986-2018 DI MALAYSIA BERDASARKAN PEMETAAN GEOGRAFI

Malaysia adopts a system of parliamentary democracy and a constitutional monarchy which has a first past the post electoral system which is the determination of victory in elections based on a simple majority. Election results are caused by certain factors and will shape certain voting patterns. Therefore, it is the purpose of writing this article to analyze the voting trends in the General Election (GE) 1986-2018 in Malaysia based on the geographical mapping. The writing of this article is based on the 1986-2018 GE results data, field observations during elections, and the production of a geographical distribution map of GE results for Parliament and DUN by using ArcGIS software and analyzed based on authoritative secondary sources. The results show that there are several geographical elements that can be associated with the results and patterns of voting in terms of location and region. The voting pattern between the eight GEs shows a fluctuation or pendulum based on the achievement of the number of seats in both Parliament and DUN between the ruling party which for a long time (1955-2013) namely Perikatan/Barisan Nasional (BN) with opposition parties such as DAP, PAS, PKR, and others. The dynamics of this support are due to, among others, geographical factors and other factors such as issues, leadership, ethnicity, governing experience, media, party ideology, sociological factors, and rational choice. Therefore, it is hoped that the impact of writing this article can provide a new dimension of dynamic electoral political thinking as well as strategic and artistic for the sake of power and can add more data and research information related to electoral politics and electoral geography.

Albanian Question Today

The paper deals with three interrelated topics: the recent parliamentary elections in Albania, the current situation in neighboring Kosovo, and the renewed dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. It contains the analysis of the run-up to the election and its result along with the longstanding assumptions regarding the specificities of Albania’s electoral geography. It also assesses the pan-Albanian rhetoric of the leading politicians in Tirana and Pristina which is actively exploited for political strengthening and used as a right means for blackmailing Brussels. Nonetheless, whoever resorts to it looks upon other as rivals and is not ready to give up leadership in the implementation of the national ideal. The author also speculates about the prospects for the future negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo, believing that a serious result cannot be expected until the presidential elections 2022 in Serbia.

Несколько заметок на полях статьи оппонента: насколько пригодны эти инструменты для оценки возможных нарушений 3 ноября? (Few Reactions on the Opponent’s Article: Are Proposed Instruments Fit to Measure Alleged 11/3 Irregularities?)

Russian Abstract: Ниже приведено несколько заметок и реакций на аргументацию А.Л.Киреева в его статье «География и статистика результатов президентских выборов в США – ключ к пониманию их достоверности». Автор, признавая определенные организационные несовершенства прошедших примерно 3 ноября 2020 выборов в США, настаивает на том, что крупных фальсификаций на них не было. Основой его аргументов является использование аналитических инструментов с помощью которых выявляют серьезные нарушения на выборах в постсоветских странах. Мы представляем свои возражения на эти аргументы и показываем, что приведенные А.Киреевым факты можно интерпретировать совсем иным образом. English Abstract: The present notes contain our reactions to the “Electoral Geography and Statistics as a Key to Understanding the Fairness of US Presidential Elections” article. The author – A.Kireyev supposes some means of electoral geography utilized to detect irregularities in elections in the post-soviet could be successfully applied for the assessment hypothesis on electoral fraud in the US Presidential elections ‘about November 3, 2020’. We guess, that the indicators proposed in the article, are hardly fit for US elections analysis. We put forward examples of alternative interpretations of some basic facts provided by A.Kireyev in his article.

Can Social Institutions Awaken “Sleeping Giants”? A Pilot Electoral Geography Study of Latinx Voter Turnout in Texas Counties in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

The Latinx population is the second largest ethnic group in the United States. In Texas, nearly two fifths of the population is classified as Latinx, and Latinx persons make up over 28 percent of the state’s eligible voters. Yet, both in Texas and nationwide, Latinx turnout is consistently and disproportionately low compared to other ethnic groups. Consequently, Latinx persons are often viewed, collectively, as a “sleeping giant” in U.S. politics—the group’s weighty presence in the population has yet to make its full imprint on the ballot box. This article draws on data for the 2016 presidential election to gain insights into the electoral geography of Latinx voter turnout in Texas. Crucially, we estimate the extent to which the presence and density of certain formal social institutions vary systematically with county-level Latinx turnout, after controlling for common determinants of voting behavior. Employing a combination of King’s ecological inference and weighted least squares regression, we find that place-based community organizations have a significant, positive relationship with Latinx turnout after accounting for common socioeconomic variables. These findings have important implications for policy and research, because they suggest a potential leverage point for waking a “sleeping giant” for future elections.

No Accountability without Transparency and Consistency: Redistricting-by-Formula in Mexico

An independent bureaucracy has carried out automated redistricting processes in Mexico since 1996. However, the process of “fine-tuning” the plans that are initially produced by formula is conducted behind closed doors where parties and experts are allowed to offer proposals. This raises questions about the necessary conditions required for a bureaucracy to operate in a transparent, consistent, and accountable manner. Our research examines this question through the analysis of private records that trace the bargaining process that takes place between parties and bureaucrats. Our results uncover substantial gaps in consistency. We highlight the strengths of the process and offer policy recommendations that can help improve the quality of redistricting in Mexico and in countries cyclically renewing their electoral geography.

Spatial diffusion and geographical patterns in the Turkish vote for pro-Islamist parties

ABSTRACT Electoral geography is mostly concerned with the geographic distribution of voters and their attributes. We add a new argument to the discussion about electoral geography: that parties pursue geographically oriented stronghold strategies. Parties win electoral provinces, transform them into strongholds, and then use the stronghold´s resources to systematically target nearby provinces. We illustrate our argument with a quantitative analysis of the rise of the Turkish Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP), utilizing a spatial diffusion perspective. Our analysis shows that the AKP has electoral gains in a given ‘receiver’ province if they have performed well in other ‘sender’ provinces in previous elections. This relation is moderated by geographical distance: only past electoral success in nearby ‘sender’ provinces has an impact on the electoral fortune of the AKP in the ‘receiver’ province. Thus, our argument is that geography matters and it channels party strategies.

Del bipartidismo a la pluralidad política en la Comunidad de Madrid: cambios territoriales (2011-2019)

La situación política actual se caracteriza por la fragmentación del voto que ha dado lugar al debilitamiento y, en algunos territorios, al fin del bipartidismo, como es el caso de la Comunidad de Madrid (CM). Las características mayorías absolutas del PP y del PSOE, han dejado paso a un abanico de gobierno más plural, donde la necesidad de los pactoses inevitable para lograr la gobernabilidad de un territorio. Este trabajo analiza la reorganización y la situación actual del mapa político de la CM. Para ello se van a estudiar los resultados electorales de los comicios municipales de 2011, 2015 y 2019. Los datos utilizados para este trabajo son los que proporcionan el Ministerio del Interior y la Comunidad de Madrid, así como el Padrón Municipal de Habitantes del Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Tras una revisión bibliográfica de los estudios realizados sobre la Geografía Electoral, se han elaborado una serie de gráficos y mapas que sustentan las bases de esta investigación, y en los que el tamaño de los municipios es la variable más representativa. El resultado es un escenario diverso en la CM entre 2011 y 2019. Se ha pasado de la hegemonía de los dos grandes partidos políticos, PP y PSOE, y en especial del PP, a un mapa con una variedad más amplia de opciones políticas, una mayor pluralidad política. Es decir, de un mapa monocolor a otro policromático en apenas ocho años y con notorias diferencias territoriales.

Electoral Geography and Community: Whither Coalition Governments in Lesotho?

Purpose: The aim of this research study is to address the nature, prospects and challenges of coalition governments and their impacts on the community in Lesotho Approach/Methodology/Design: This paper uses desk top methodology and employs a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis technique to address the nature, prospects and challenges of coalition governments and their impacts on the community in Lesotho. Research questions that guide this study are what prompt coalition governments in Lesotho? How do coalition governments operate in Lesotho? What are the prospects and challenges of coalition governments on the government, governance, lives and livelihoods of the communities in Lesotho? What might be a sustainable democratic coalition government option in Lesotho going forward? Findings: The hypothesis of the paper is that coalition governments promote instability of government and poor governance for the Basotho. The results show that prospects for coalition governments are inclusive democracy, while challenges are community exclusion, poor service delivery, extravagant public expenditure and government instability. Practical Implications: The article provides a detailed analysis of the impact of coalition governments on the community. Originality/value: The major findings and conclusion of the paper is that coalition governments have prompted cooperation among former rival parties to form one coalition government at different times; but they have had a negative impact on the Basotho community as a whole and benefited only a minority aligned to some of the major coalition parties under different coalition regimes.

ANALISIS GEOGRAFI POLITIK DALAM PILIHAN RAYA KECIL (PRK) PARLIMEN TANJONG PIAI, JOHOR

Political geography is one of the aspects of human geography that is a larger study, but it contains more specific elements. Political geography focuses on political phenomena and focuses on the structure of the institution and how it is involved in the formation of geographical patterns and relationships. In this paper, two aspects of political geography will be explored in the by-election of the Tanjong Piai parliamentary, namely geopolitics and electoral geography. Geopolitics means the influence of power on an area in terms of ethnicity, political parties, leaders, governments, and local authorities. Election geography is a field of study on the various aspects of geography such as area, borders, population, development, and economic influence on political trends of the state. It is well known that the BN won the Tanjong Piai parliamentary seat in the 2019 by-election and the seat is won by the PH in 2018. The post-election 2018 sees the Tanjong Piai Parliamentary Election on November 16, 2019. BN/MCA candidate Datuk Seri Dr. Wee Jeck Seng won the Tanjong Piai parliamentary by-election with 15,086 votes after gaining 25,466 votes. Thus, the geopolitical aspects that will be uncovered are the influence of ethnic geopolitics, political parties, and leaders in influencing the election results and voting patterns while the geographical aspects of the electorate that will be elaborated in this paper are mapping in terms of area influence (development), border, location (urban-rural), accessible, physical (natural and man-made). In terms of geopolitics ethnicity, found both ethnic Malay and Chinese support BN/MCA ethnic Chinese caused by the candidates and the identification of a party in the by-election of Parliament for Tanjong Piai while the electoral geography, in the polling district outside the city, the majority of ethnic Malays continued strong support BN/MCA while the town/urban where the majority of ethnic Chinese took place a little swing of PH in the BN/MCA caused by the candidates, the socio-economic situation and current issues in favor of the BN/MCA. One of the main factors contributing to the Barisan Nasional’s majority in the Tanjung Piai by-election on Nov 16 was because of its candidate Datuk Seri Dr. Wee Jeck Seng himself. The charm, popularity, and service of Wee, who has been a member of the state legislative assembly of the Pekan Nenas for three years, and the Tanjung Piai MP for two terms, certainly met the level of community satisfaction there. The former Tanjung Piai MP is seen as more experienced, credible, and friendly than Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Karmaine Sardini. Wee Jeck Seng’s personal and BN’s machine power-assisted by PAS through the cooperation of the Muafakat Nasional is considered to be the key factor in winning the BN. Jeck Seng’s strength is also reflected in the BN and PAS’s unified machine power which was successfully consolidated through the Muafakat Nasional. This factor is significant because the UMNO and PAS machinery are seen as working hard to ensure that all white voters are cast out, despite the Tanjung Piai parliamentary seat being contested by MCA candidates. Moreover, issues of anger and frustration of the people and especially the Chinese community over the failure of the government to deal with the rising cost of living, the promise of the 14th General Election (GE14) manifesto were not met and the failure of the PH to address sensational issues played by BN also contributed to the defeating factor for PH this time. PH candidates are also seen to be caught up in the issue of their own mistakes as well as the wisdom of the BN machinery to play negative issues involving the PH Government which ultimately influences the electorate.

Geografía de la participación electoral y diferenciación socioespacial en Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua (México)

Recientemente los estudios de geografía electoral en México están incorporando conceptos como dependencia espacial para valorar la dimensión geográfica como una de las dimensiones explicativas del voto. El artículo plantea como objeto de estudio la relación entre la diferenciación socioespacial y la participación ciudadana en la formación de núcleos entre las secciones electorales de Ciudad Juárez, México. En esta dependencia se toma en cuenta la importancia de los efectos espaciales, dados estos últimos por la proximidad de las secciones electorales. Este trabajo presenta técnicas de análisis espacial (autocorrelación espacial, regresiones espaciales y métodos cartográficos). Entre los principales resultados se encontró evidencia de agrupamientos espaciales, lo que significa que en el espacio geográfico los valores del porcentaje participación electoral y de diferenciación socio espacial tiene una mayor relación con aquellos espacios más cercanos que los distantes, donde una disminución en el nivel de diferenciación socioespacial aumenta el nivel de participación electoral. Y estos valores varían en el espacio urbano verificando que la configuración espacial de la participación ciudadana en Ciudad Juárez durante las elecciones presidenciales del 2012 no se produce de manera aleatoria quedando evidencia de la interdependencia y retroalimentación entre las secciones electorales ratificando el efecto de vecindario.

The City as an Onion? Case Studies of Electoral Geography in Prague and Warsaw

The City as an Onion? Case Studies of Electoral Geography in Prague and Warsaw

When cultural strength means political weakness: Romania’s marriage referendum and the paradox of conservative mobilisation

Abstract Held on 6–7 October 2018, the Romanian referendum on the topic of gay marriage was the fourth referendum of this kind organised in East Central Europe over a five-year period. Because turnout was low in all of them and demands explanation, this paper: i) discusses the common characteristics of these Eastern European marriage referendums, contextualising the Romanian referendum; ii) overviews the history of the Romanian referendum, emphasising the legal, political, ideological and societal aspects; iii) quantitatively examines the electoral geography of the voting patterns; and iv) interprets qualitative data seeking to understand the voters’ choices and why conservative mobilisation was so weak.

La reconfiguración territorial de las fuerzas políticas mexicanas: geografía de la fragmentación, el colapso y la recomposición del sistema de partidos (2012-2018)

En el ámbito electoral, el saldo del sexenio pasado se caracterizó por una reconfiguración radical de las fuerzas políticas, tras el colapso del sistema de partidos que estructuró la política mexicana desde la transición democrática. El opositor Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) se nutrió del hartazgo de los partidos gobernantes y se tradujo en un contundente voto de sanción. Con un enfoque espacial, esta investigación analiza los tres procesos que convergieron para producir una nueva geografía electoral en 2018: la reconfiguración socioterritorial de las fuerzas políticas; la recomposición de las coaliciones presidenciales y el voto cruzado masivo que benefició a Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Borders, Constituency Politics, and “Our Man” Voting in Electoral Geography of Ukraine

The electoral geography of Ukraine is predominantly based on compositional effect studies, which consider nationality, language, and foreign policy orientations as main cleavage lines in Ukrainian society. Alternatively, scholars admit statistical significance of the regional factor and often interpret it as a historically constituted political culture. Both approaches are based on census and state statistics data (most often at oblast (regional) level) and construct artificial regions for research purposes. We assume that such approaches neglect underlying territorial configurations of electoral behavior in Ukraine. The paper is based on data at polling stations level for 2002-2014 parliamentary elections. The thorough cartographic analysis was conducted to clarify in what cases phantom borders are manifested in electoral maps and to reveal other territorial configurations of electoral behavior in Ukraine. We found that historical borders influence is limited to voting for nationalists, communists, and parties which are perceived as pro-Russian, their manifestations are dependent on each elections context and parties’ electoral strategies, and they are complicated by the overlapping effects of the other factors of electoral behavior (including administrative borders). The paper reveals that constituency campaigning in single-member districts (SMD) can influence parties’ results at the national level PR vote and that scaling of “our man” voting is essential for parties’ electoral success and is used in electoral strategies. We also accentuate the role of administrative borders, local-national and regional-national alliances in electoral geography of Ukraine.

Партийная система Эстонии на современном этапе: электоральная турбулентность и смена этнорегиональных паттернов

A well-developed party system has emerged in Estonia over the decades of independence. There are, however, distinct geographical patterns of voting. A number of new political parties have appeared in the country; the regional and ethnic patterns of voting (the latter matter much in Estonia) have changed dramatically. This study aims to analyse the recent changes in the Estonian party system as well as the causes of these changes and the effect of the ethnic and geographical factors on the transformation of the electoral behaviour of Estonian citizens. The research employs a systemic approach that makes it possible to solve the agent—structure problem to the benefit of the general structure and integral system of Estonia’s party scene. The method of comparative systemic analysis is used alongside those adopted in electoral geography. It is concluded that the effect of the ethnic and geographical factors on electoral behaviour is diminishing as a civil society based on civic rather than ethnic principles is emerging in the country. The main drivers of the change are the formation of new parties and coalition-building — both have an immediate effect on how the image of the parties is perceived by voters.