Electoral Chances Research Articles

Not Tough Enough? Gender Stereotypes and Vote Choice in Switzerland

ABSTRACT While many studies examine the effect of gender stereotypes on electoral chances of women candidates in the U.S. little research investigates this relationship outside two-party systems and experimental designs. This article examines the relationship between gender stereotypes and vote choice for women candidates in the Swiss federal election of 2019. Our regression analyses show that voters holding male issue stereotypes are less likely to elect women candidates, while voters holding female issue stereotypes are more likely to elect women candidates. Interaction effects suggest differing effects depending on a respondent’s age, political knowledge, and the candidate’s party position.

Wasting public money to buy turnout: quasi-experimental evidence from the Polish battle for fire trucks

ABSTRACT It is well known that incumbents enjoy advantages in elections. Among others, they may use public resources to increase their electoral chances by mobilizing specific social groups to vote. In the 2020 presidential elections, the Polish government organised a competition: small municipalities with the highest turnout could win a fire truck. We exploit the threshold of 20,000 that arbitrarily divided municipalities into competing and non-competing for this public good and apply the quasi-experimental Regression Discontinuity Design. The competition aimed to increase the turnout in districts supporting the incumbent president. However, we find no evidence of any significant impact of the competition on the turnout or support for the incumbent around the threshold. We discuss why similar practices are common despite this result.

The election of former rebel women

After conflict, many ex-combatant men experience the spoils of war as their rebel groups transition into political parties and elect former members to party seats. However, it is unclear whether these opportunities are reserved only for male ex-combatants. This article considers when and why voters might support former rebel women running for political office. It argues that the election of these women will depend on their roles within rebel groups, as well as their use of violence during conflict. The article presents a novel dataset on the election of former rebel women to rebel parties from 1970 to 2020. The results indicate that women’s roles as combatants and leaders in rebel groups are associated with higher levels of election for rebel women. In contrast, rebel women’s ties to violent tactics such as terrorism and sexual violence during war are associated with a lower level of election for rebel women after conflict. The interactions between rebel women’s roles and ties to violence are tested; the results suggested that, regardless of elite roles, rebel women’s electoral chances are hurt by extreme forms of violence, demonstrating the salience of the negative stigmas attached to violent women. The findings also demonstrate that while many former rebel women are marginalized after war, a select few experience political gains.

The ‘Second U-Turn’: Domestic Politics and Foreign Economic Policy Choice in Ghana

Abstract After months of grandstanding amidst an economic crisis that has seen prices of basic goods skyrocketed, growing unsustainable public debt levels and the value of the local currency plummeting, the Government of Ghana made a U-turn on its earlier decision of not seeking an IMF bailout and announced on 1st July 2022, the intention to seek an IMF bailout. This paper tries to understand the initial government resistance to an IMF bailout. Using the qualitative research approach and analyzing speeches of political actors, the study makes the case that domestic politics was the main reason for the governments initial resistance to engaging the IMF. An IMF programme would be politically self-defeating for the government and provide a political tool for the opposition in the 2024 election since a similar deal in 2015 was portrayed as evidence of government failure. On the evidence of the current IMF bailout decision, the paper concludes that governments have political interest in making foreign economic policy choices in Ghana. Choices that may not enhance electoral chances are likely to be avoided in favour of those that enhance it. To derive the best outcome from foreign economic policy choices requires building national consensus, which would help to avoid adverse outcomes that may be occasioned by policy choices that enhance a political actor’s electoral chances at the expense of the long-term interest of the state.

Humza Yousaf – the New Leader of SNP

The resignation of N. Sturgeon, SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland, was caused by political scandals and failures of her rule. Following the results of party elections, for the first time an ethnic Pakistani, a descendant of migrants H. Yousaf became leader of SNP and Scotland. An adherent of "woke" ideology, he had defeated the supporter of traditional values K. Forbes by a slight margin. Yousaf is unlikely to overcome the split in SNP, as well as create a sustained majority in public opinion for Scottish independence. The confrontation between Edinburgh and London will continue. The SNP's electoral chances are declining in favor of the Labour Party.

Die Auseinandersetzung mit Covid-19 in den USA – eine parteipolitische Pandemie?

From its very beginning, the Covid-19 pandemic was politicized in the United States . Then- President Donald Trump saw it was little more than another attempt by his political oppo- nents and the media to harm his electoral chances . The Democratic camp viewed Trump’s actions as another example of the President’s incompetence and the growing anti-science sentiment within the Republican Party . The fact that supporters of both parties interpreted the pandemic differently can be attributed in particular to the growth in “affective” polariza- tion . The political opponent is now increasingly perceived as an enemy that is wrong on all issues and often seen as a threat to the country’s values and its democracy . Accordingly, masks, social distancing rules, and vaccinations were viewed from a partisan vantage point that hindered efforts to combat the pandemic in a unified manner . In other political areas, the growing antipathy between the two camps for one another can be expected to increas- ingly shape specific policy preferences as well .

Zum Reformbedarf bei der Personalwahl in den Wahlkreisen: Anmerkungen zur umstrittenen Wahlrechtsänderung

In March 2023, the German Bundestag passed legislation to reform the electoral law with the votes of the governing coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP to prevent the parliament from growing beyond its regular number of seats . Contrary to an initial draft bill from January 2023, the base mandate clause (Grundmandatsklausel) was also abolished, not only overhang seats and compensatory seats . This amendment, which was included in the bill at short notice, reduces the electoral chances of smaller parties with regional strongholds . It therefore prevented support from the Left party and any conceivable agreement with the CDU/CSU . Passing an electoral system into law with only a simple parliamentary majority calls for particular attention that the new system is equally fair for all parties . The impression that tactical political considerations may have influenced the governing parties jeopardizes the acceptance of this controversial electoral law reform . The abolishment of the base mandate clause impairs the democratic principle of representing the political will expressed in an election . This major legislative change is neither justified by the logic of the new electoral system, nor is it directly related to the declared aim of reducing the number of seats in the Bundestag . Without comparable compensation the electoral reform remains open to constitutional challenge . The reform refrains from clarifying the legislative role of an electoral system combining personal and proportional representation . The disputes about overhang seats and the base mandate clause shows, however, that personal representation within the electoral system is in need of reform .

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy January to June 2022

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy January to June 2022

Loud and Negative: Exploring Negativity in Voter Thoughts About Women and Men Politicians

Negative information about political candidates is readily available in contemporary political communication. Moreover, negativity is tightly connected to gendered expectations about what constitutes appropriate behavior for politicians. Yet, existing theoretical models of negativity and candidate evaluation typically do not address the role of gender and the available empirical evidence remains inconclusive regarding the electoral consequences of the interaction of negativity and gender. This article tackles these gaps in two studies to investigate how negativity manifests in voters’ thoughts about women and men politicians in response to negative media cues and how these thoughts affect vote preference. Study 1 uses a mixed methods think-aloud approach to trace the first impression formation and subsequent decision-making process (N = 78). Study 2 replicates the design as an online thought listing survey experiment (N = 142). A similar quantitative pattern emerges across both studies: (a) Negative cues elicit similar amounts of negativity in voters’ thoughts for women and men politicians, (b) these negative thoughts strongly lower candidates’ electoral chances, (c) but less so for women candidates. The qualitative analysis suggests that negative cues heuristically affect earlier stages of impression formation while voters are likely to rely on gender cues when they rationalize their vote decision.

Kinder and gentler ministers in consensus democracies? Personality and the selection of government members

This study examines the personality traits of candidates for the Swiss government and how they are related to the candidates’ electoral chances. Switzerland as a paradigmatic consensual democracy is an ideal test case to examine the connection between the specific pattern of a democracy and the government personalities that fit it. We argue that the cultural and institutional setting of the Swiss Government increases the electoral chances of kinder and gentler personalities. To test this, we estimate regression models on a new data set of candidates covering all vacancies in the Swiss government between 1982 and 2020. Our results reveal that candidates with a higher level of agreeableness do enjoy an advantage in the electoral process for Swiss consensus government.

Surviving But Not Thriving: VOX and Spain in Times of COVID-19

AbstractIn this article, we triangulate qualitative data regarding the framing of the pandemic and the strategic decisions taken by Spain's new populist radical right-wing party, VOX, with a quantitative analysis of aggregate polling data and individual-level survey responses to answer three questions: how has VOX framed the politics of the pandemic? What actions has VOX taken in response to COVID-19? Have the events of the COVID-19 crisis affected VOX's electoral chances? We argue that VOX's response to the pandemic has focused on augmenting the antagonistic relationship between itself and the political establishment, especially the left-wing government. Strategically, VOX has sought to leverage the health crisis to engage in legislative manoeuvres aiming, without success, to position itself as the primary party-in-waiting for right-wing voters. We also demonstrate that VOX has proven to be resilient against the potential for electoral decline that was widely prophesied at the beginning of the pandemic.

The effect of the ballot in an unranked ballot system

The design of election ballots can influence voters’ behavior. Features of the ballot are particularly important if they systematically harm the electoral chances of some groups. In Brazil, voters type the four or five-digit number of their chosen candidate into an electronic voting machine to cast a ballot. Some numbers have sequences that are easier to memorize and recall than others. I show that candidates with memorable numbers receive a boost in their vote share. Moreover, I demonstrate that women are less likely to be assigned memorable numbers. This paper highlights the importance of thinking thoroughly about the implications of seemingly innocuous characteristics of voting procedures.

‘The personal touch’: Campaign personalisation in Britain

Parliamentary candidates face choices about the extent to which they personalise their election campaigns. They must strike a balance between promoting their party’s message and their own personal appeal, and they must decide how much effort to invest in developing personalised campaign activities. These decisions determine the nature of the campaigns that candidates run, and therefore, voters’ experience during elections. In this article, we use individual-level survey data from the British Representation Study to explore the extent to which candidates personalise their election campaigns in terms of messaging focus and activities. We find that candidates who live in the area they seek to represent, and those who are more positive about their electoral chances, run more personalised campaigns, in terms of focus and activities. Incumbents’ campaigns, meanwhile, are more personalised in their focus only, while candidates who have held national party office tend to use a greater range of personalised campaign activities.

Prejudice, Information, and the Vote for Women in Personalized PR Systems: Evidence from Brazil

ABSTRACT Personalized proportional representation systems elect fewer women than other systems. This paper uses individual-level survey data and leverages state-level variation in campaign expenditures and number of candidates to assess three main explanations for the phenomenon. The first proposes that voters become less likely to elect women because men are more visible, since they have more access to campaign resources. The second proposes that voters rely on prejudice against women in complex electoral environments. The third explanation argues that the presence of co-partisan competition allows voters to substitute men for women. The evidence at the individual-level in Brazil supports the three perspectives, while the analyses at the district-level provide support for the co-partisan substitution hypothesis. The findings present new evidence that features of electoral systems interact with voters’ perceptions in ways that affect the electoral chances of women candidates.

Between Cooperation and Competition: Electoral Alliances of the Parliamentary Opposition in Poland during the 2018–2019 Series of Three Elections

The 2019 Polish parliamentary elections were the last in a series of three elections held within 12 months (chronologically: local elections, European Parliament election, elections to the Sejm and the Senate). The three consecutive elections opened up the possibility for cooperation within the parliamentary opposition with the aim of political victory. This article examines the relations between opposition groups in 2018–2019. Each election is analyzed in terms of the nature of relations within the opposition as well as cooperation and interparty competition. The hypothesis assumes that the types of relations among parliamentary opposition groups were shaped by the character of the given elections and the decisions taken by individual parties choosing between maintaining their independence and steps to potentially increase their electoral chances. The analysis shows that during the period in question the opposition did not develop a stable unified model of cooperation and that relations between individual groups were dominated by competition; however, depending on the election, cooperation was possible and was pragmatically pursued by the parties, as in the case of the European Coalition. The only stable cooperation was between Civic Platform and Modern.

Cycles of Fire? Politics and Forest Burning in Indonesia

This paper examines the link between electoral incentives and environmental degradation by exploiting a satellite dataset on 107,000 forest fires and 879 asynchronous district elections in Indonesia. Fires represent a cheap but illegal means of converting forested land to other uses, but they risk burning out of control and creating substantial negative environmental externalities. We find a significant electoral cycle in forest fires. Ignitions and area burned decline during election years but steeply increase in the year after. The results suggest that politicians may suppress this activity at times when it might particularly dent their electoral chances.

The Political Meaning of the Hijab Style of Women Candidates

For several decades, an increasing number of Indonesian women have worn the Islamic headscarf, or hijab. This phenomenon has been the subject of considerable scholarly analysis, with most analysts seeing it as one sign of growing Islamisation in the country. Relatively few studies, however, have considered the extraordinary variation in hijab styles or analysed how they are used in electoral politics. Through a close study of women candidates running for legislative seats in the Cilacap district in Indonesia’s 2019 election, this article analyses the political meaning of the style of hijab chosen by candidates as part of their political imaging. In particular, the article distinguishes between ideological and instrumental uses of the hijab, noting that while some candidates wore particular styles of hijab in order to convey a broad ideological vision about the future of Indonesia, others were far more instrumental in their use, tailoring their hijab style to increase their electoral chances.

High noon for the Union?

Next May, the SNP will be defending a fourteen year record in office in Edinburgh. Typically, governments find it difficult to secure electoral success in such circumstances. The 'costs of government' – the almost inevitable gap between a party's initial promises and voters' perceptions of what has actually been achieved – usually take their toll at the ballot box (Green and Jennings, 2017). Yet, even though the SNP administration has had its fair share of difficulties and disappointments during its now lengthy time in office, just how well it has met the challenges of the last 14 years may come to matter little in voters' minds when they decide how to cast their ballot.

Wave theory

ABSTRACTIn India, as elsewhere, voters and electoral observers refer to powerful, emerging political trends as “waves,” such as the “Modi wave” that brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power. In rural South India, during the run‐up to the 2019 national elections, how did people read signs of political waves, and how did voters align themselves with these signs as they circulated across media forms? A “wave theory” analysis finds that rural voters in the state of Tamil Nadu assess electoral chances across various factors—including candidates’ cash flow, crowd behavior, caste calculations, and professional analyses of polling data. People take electoral positions within ambient and layered ecologies of information, in which everyday speculation about political fortunes is situated alongside formalized methods of analysis, calculation, and prediction. And because electoral waves are experienced locally but often carry energy from afar, they constitute both a force and a fluid medium of convergence. [elections, democracy, prediction, crowds, money, caste, media, Tamil Nadu, India]

Incumbency Advantage in the Context of Electoral Manipulation. Experiences of Local Elections in Poland

The paper analyzes the potential impact of individuals exercising their mandate and running for re-election (incumbents) on the instrumentalization of the electoral competition. The context chosen for this analysis is provided by local elections and by mechanisms used by politicians to improve their electoral chances. As in other types of elections, the personal dimension of manipulation in local elections is asymmetrical in its nature. Due to their position and resources held, incumbents are the ones who have a higher manipulative potential than their challengers. The aim of the paper is to analyze the advantage of incumbents in local elections by indicating the electoral manipulations used with regard to three basic types: institutional, communicative, and psychological. The analysis is conducted on the basis of Polish electoral experience and illustrated with examples justifying the importance of the individual manipulations in the electoral competition.