Electoral Authoritarian Regimes Research Articles

Patterns of Competitiveness in Russian Gubernatorial Elections

AbstractCompetitiveness in electoral authoritarian regimes is compromised by management of the electoral arena through various kinds of manipulation. This study links two dimensions of competitiveness, namely fairness and contestation. We analyze the regional heterogeneity of both dimensions for Russian gubernatorial elections held between 2012 and 2019. To assess competitiveness, we use crowd-sourced electoral observation reports and data from the Central Election Commission. Our analysis reveals significant regional variation in both dimensions. Nevertheless, opposition victories are rare and only occur in exceptional cases. Low levels of electoral malpractices seem to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for close election results. Windows of opportunity for the opposition arise only if the regime misperceives the closeness of the race and if the opposition nominates prominent candidates. Overall, these findings shed light on the complex factors influencing the competitiveness of elections in electoral authoritarian regimes like Russia.

Alter-nation? Factions, Coalitions and Environmental Governance in the Context of Contested Post-apartheid Local State Democratisation

AbstractMany African states have become electoral democracies, but others are still run by electoral authoritarian regimes, and/or exhibit procedural but not more substantive emancipatory extensions of rights and functions. In such contexts, alternation of power, or electoral turnover, has been recognised as a key signifier of successful democratisation. South Africa’s post-apartheid democratic transition was widely lauded as a textbook case, yet declining support for the political incumbent, factionalism, the phenomena of “state-capture” and the decline of state-owned entities has raised questions about the promises and challenges of post-African National Congress (ANC) hegemony. Limited research in South Africa (SA) focuses on the influence of political contest — including alternation, coalition formation and factionalism on municipal Environmental Governance (EG). Accordingly, we provide an analysis of political contest in both single and coalition councils between 2016 and 2021 in the of the Endumeni Local (ELM) and uMzinyathi District (UDM) municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), SA, focusing on environmental governance implications. The study was theoretically framed by a broad Political Ecology Approach (PEA). A mixed-method research approach consisting of qualitative and quantitative data collection techniques was utilised. The findings revealed contested politics and instability in both single and coalition councils, regardless of who governs. and this predominantly constrained, but in few instances enabled EG. This complicates narratives of alternation and coalition politics and points to the broader and ongoing need for council policy reform, local council stability, municipal competence and accountability.

Autocratic Legalism, Partisanship, and Popular Legitimation in Authoritarian Cameroon.

Authoritarian regimes regularly turn to the law to justify repression. This article examines whether invoking legal institutions has a persuasive effect on public perceptions of repression, and whether that effect is shaped by partisanship. The article uses the case of Cameroon's Special Criminal Tribunal, created in 2011 to prosecute high-profile corruption cases. A survey experiment was designed that describes the arrest and trial of a suspected corrupt oppositional minister and reminds a treatment group about the Special Criminal Tribunal. The results show that neither regime nor opposition partisans are swayed by legal justifications for repression. By contrast, nonpartisans respond negatively to autocratic legalism, particularly those with low levels of regime trust. The article clarifies when autocratic legalism might be used for public legitimation, suggests that partisanship is a useful lens for understanding public opinion in an autocracy, and elaborates upon the meaning of nonpartisanship in electoral authoritarian regimes.

Inheritance of power in the 21st century: legal mechanisms for the transfer of presidential powers to controlled viceroys and family members in authoritarian regimes

This study investigates the prevalence of presidential clans in authoritarian regimes, particularly in Central Asian countries, and their impact on political processes and power transitions. Different methodological approaches were used to study the role of the president, differentiate between authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, and analyze post-Soviet clan communities. The research found that the governmental form influences the president's functions and powers, and that institutional reforms and elections in authoritarian regimes often serve to legitimize elite agreements. The study also examined power transitions in post-Soviet Central Asia, noting the importance of informal agreements and historical traditions in maintaining balance of power. However, it was revealed that the practice of transferring power within presidential clans hinders modern political processes and state development. The experience of power transitions in countries like Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan were considered, each exhibiting unique risks and advantages related to succession or dynastic inheritance. It was found that the elites of the post-Soviet republics operate based on traditions and historically formed the mechanism of power, which has become a key aspect in determining the balance of power. The practical value of the identified results is to provide an assessment of the effectiveness of the transit of power, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages.

Data Journalism and the Impact of Politics: Examining Data Stories Produced Across Different Political Systems

ABSTRACT Data journalism in Western-centric research has been lauded for its contributions to investigative reporting and democracy, but forms and functions may vary across different political systems, as freedom of information laws and government attitudes towards data differ. This study examines 301 data stories produced by six prominent news outlets across different political systems – the liberal democracy, welfare state democracy, transitional democracy, electoral authoritarian regime, personalist dictatorship, and absolute monarchy – to discover how they vary in story assets and presentation, investigative elements, and journalistic norms and roles. Results indicate that data stories produced across all political systems have the tendency to focus on government and social issues, but when government influence and/or control of the press is greater, such stories based locally tend to be neutral in valence, feature fewer investigative and interactive elements, use government data sources and perform the civic role of the press. This is compared to stories based abroad, which may tend towards negative valence, contain more investigation and interactivity, feature more voices from civic society, and play a populist mobilizer role. That said, visualizations, objectivity, and transparency of data stories may be high across all political systems, with the news organization itself interpreting the data.

Gender Differences in Policy Preferences of Legislators: Evidence from China’s National Legislature

Abstract Do female legislators have different policy preferences than male legislators? Despite a large body of literature from liberal democracies and recent studies of electoral authoritarian regimes, this topic has received little attention in the context of single-party regimes. Based on quasi-experimental methods and regression models, we analyze original data from 38,383 proposals introduced during China’s 12th National People’s Congress and test the effect of gender on policies concerning conventionally selected feminine issues and “political stance,” issues that are unique to single-party regimes. The analysis confirms the effect of gender on policy preference across several feminine issues. However, the effect of gender is null on issues concerning political stance. Our findings suggest that while single-party regimes allow gender differences to emerge among legislators on issues that are not politically important, they tend to discourage such differences on politically prominent issues. This study advances the literature on both gender politics and authoritarian politics.

Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes. By Keith Weghorst. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2022. 300p. $120.00 cloth.

Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes. By Keith Weghorst. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2022. 300p. $120.00 cloth.

Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes by Keith Weghorst

Journal Article Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes by Keith Weghorst Get access Keith Weghorst. New York, Cambridge University Press. 2022. 371 pp. $120. Rachael McLellan Rachael McLellan University of Glasgow Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, qqad046, https://doi.org/10.1093/psquar/qqad046 Published: 18 June 2023

A Rumbling from Below? Opposition Party Rebranding, Regional Elections, and Transforming the Regime in Russia

In this paper we examine whether opposition parties, particularly the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), can promote transition in the electoral authoritarian regime in Russia. We use the example of the National Action Party’s (PAN) evolution as an “official opposition” party in Mexico and discuss how its campaign strategy and party identity evolved. Using a framework derived from the political marketing literature on party branding and rebranding, we argue that the PAN successfully rebranded itself via the electoral opportunities afforded by structure of Mexican federalism, which ultimately led to the democratic transition in 1999. We then address the possibility of a similar evolution occurring in Russia, by examining how the CPRF altered its national campaign message between 2015–2018. Finally, we speculate whether local opposition victories will spark the kind of transition in Russia that occurred in other electoral authoritarian regimes, such as Mexico.

Public policy and elections in authoritarian regimes: evidence from the policy on native languages in Russia

AbstractHow might public policy changes affect electoral support for authoritarian regimes? Missing from the existing scholarship, which focuses mostly on regimes generating political budget cycles and manipulating electoral rules, is an exploration of how non-fiscal and non-electoral policies may impact incumbent support. We examine this issue with electoral and census data from one of the world’s most prominent authoritarian regimes – Russia – to evaluate the regime’s 2017 change to the policy governing native language instruction, which curtailed minority students’ ability to learn their native languages and faced opposition in some ethnic regions. Examining panel data on presidential elections using fixed effects models, our results reveal that the regime’s support decreased in titular minority areas in 2018. The results also indicate that some of these patterns emerged in previous national legislative elections and thus cannot be solely attributed to the policy change.

Popular Dictatorships: Crises, Mass Opinion, and the Rise of Electoral Authoritarianism by Aleksander Matovski

In Popular Dictatorships, Alexander Matovski examines the emergence and durability of electoral authoritarian regimes in societies undergoing political, social, or economic turmoil. Strongman electoral autocracies, he argues, are uniquely able to leverage shared collective trauma and to provide credibility to claims that a hybrid system—one which exists between open democracy and closed authoritarianism—is “the safest and most pragmatic governing system for troubled societies” (73). These hybrid regimes profess to offer the best of both worlds and focus their legitimation efforts on the premise that they are most suited to maintaining order and stability. While Matovski situates his argument as a corrective to the literature on electoral authoritarianism, this book fits well with the robust scholarly examination of popular support, legitimacy, and legitimation in authoritarian regimes. Popular Dictatorships provides a compelling theory of how electoral authoritarian regimes balance between more traditional authoritarian tactics, such as coercion and cooptation, and mass support. In doing so, this book will be of interest to audiences interested in the emergence of electoral authoritarian regimes, the ways in which they maintain power, and the reasons they may fall.

The Instrumentalization of Women Opposition Leaders for Authoritarian Regime Entrenchment: The Case of Uganda

Electoral authoritarian regimes have sought to use a variety of tactics to remain in power even as they have opened themselves up to competition through multiparty elections. These tactics have included an array of measures targeting opposition women. They became significant in Africa after the 1990s as most countries adopted multiparty systems and ruling parties needed to maintain vote share. Ruling parties in African authoritarian countries strengthened their patronage networks by promoting women as leaders. At the same time, women in opposition parties have fared poorly compared to women in ruling parties and male opposition candidates. This has been the case even where one finds the special dispensation of a gender quota in the form of reserved seats. This article looks at how Uganda’s ruling party has used various tactics to advance women leaders, responding to pressures from both the women’s movement and international actors while seeking to ensure its continued dominance. It reveals an essential feature of authoritarianism in Africa today, namely the instrumental use of women leaders to entrench the ruling party in power.

Book Review: Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes

Book Review: Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes

Building voting coalitions in electoral authoritarian regimes: a case study of the 2020 constitutional reform in Russia

ABSTRACT Electoral authoritarian political systems have a hybrid nature, possessing very significant authoritarian features alongside elections that can produce openings for political change. The risks that elections pose to regimes are diminished if they can build winning coalitions involving voters beyond their core of loyal support. This paper considers how the construction of voter coalitions might be conceptualized in the Russian electoral authoritarian context, with reference to the case of the 2020 vote on constitutional reform, which was conducted with the primary aim of extending President Vladimir Putin’s term in office. Using data from a national survey of Russians conducted immediately after the vote, our analysis indicates that the regime’s success, even taking into account allegations of widespread fraud, was the result of its offer of additional constitutional amendments that were able to target voters beyond Putin’s core support.

The Road to Electoral Authoritarianism: Tracing Three Phases of State-Society Contention in Post-Colonial Hong Kong, 2003–2020

Previous studies have examined Hong Kong’s hybrid regime by investigating the interactions among activists, the local government, and the Chinese national government. This article adopts the lens of contentious politics and a multi-level approach to understand regime evolution within the local-national-regional-global nexus. It presents an original dataset that records movement tactics and state responses in four major protests and delineates three phases of state-society contention between 2003 and 2020. It explains regime evolution by highlighting five intertwining factors: activists’ tactical learning; organisational ecology in civil society; state repression strategies; regional politics in Greater China; and international political economy. It finds that the first phase (2003–2012) was characterised by an increasing use of disruptive tactics, an emergent call for de-centred mobilisation, and a limited deployment of state security forces. The second phase (2013–2015) exhibited nascent applications of violent tactics, while the state employed more forceful police repression, re-engineered the electoral field, and sponsored counter-mobilisation. The most recent phase (2016–2020) showed activists’ intensified use of violent tactics and a strong intention to seek international support. The state responded to local threats and international pressure with violent crackdowns and stricter institutional arrangements, which has resulted in an electoral authoritarian regime that is less-than-competitive.

Masking the Strangulation of Opposition Parties as Pandemic Response: Austerity Measures Targeting the Local Level in Hungary

AbstractWhile a large literature studies the various tools of autocratic survival, targeting opposition actors with austerity measures in electoral autocracies is hitherto understudied. This paper argues that the COVID-19 pandemic has provided a rare opportunity for Hungary’s Fidesz party to disarm opposition parties via cutting off resources of municipalities led by opposition mayors and eliminating any remnants of local governments’ fiscal autonomy. Analysing original data from government decrees on local transfers, this study contributes to the existing literature by conceptualising fiscal strangulation as part of electoral authoritarian regimes’ toolbox to discredit opposition parties and their ability to govern locally.

Turkey’s State Crisis: Institutions, Reform and Conflict

Turkey’s State Crisis: Institutions, Reform and Conflict

To Hope or Not to Hope: Liberalism, Neoliberalism, and Learning from Lebanon’s 2022 Election

This Rapid Communication examines Lebanon’s 2022 Parliamentary election in the context of other recent elections in consociational and populist regimes. The Lebanese electorate is now divided both by sectarian identity and by a pro- versus anti-establishment cleavage. This second cleavage makes Lebanon look more like other electoral authoritarian regimes. In light of scholarly work that ties electoral authoritarianism to late-stage neoliberalism, Lebanon’s recent election prompts renewed attention to the neo-liberal assumptions embedded in its and other consociational systems.

How to Compete in Unfair Elections

Oppositions in electoral authoritarian regimes often boycott sham elections. Yet unfair elections can be game-changing. This article shows how the opposition contested the 9 August 2020 presidential election in Belarus to mobilize a large-scale grassroots prodemocracy movement by: 1) presenting a credible alternative to the regime and unifying efforts, 2) drawing on citizen-led initiatives—including an innovative artificial-intelligence parallel vote-tabulation system—to expose the extent of electoral manipulation, build solidarity, and engender belief in the possibility of change, 3) involving citizens at every stage of the electoral process to credibly demonstrate support for the opposition, and 4) wielding the regime's electoral law against it to publicize electoral violations. The election transformed Belarus's once-apathetic populace into active citizens and created conditions for future change, despite mass state-sanctioned violence.

Reconfiguring Authoritarianism: Post-Crisis Regime Consolidation in Algeria during the 1990s

Cezayir rejimi 1990’larda bir demokratikleşme çabası ve bir iç savaşla sarsılmıştı. Ancak takip eden süreçte rejim oldukça dirençli bir hale gelmeyi başardı. Her ne kadar 2000’lerden sonra başta Arap Baharı ve Hirak isimli toplum hareketleri olsa da Cezayir rejimi protestoları yatıştırmanın ve hayatta kalmanın yollarını bulabildi. İstikrarsız geçen 1990’ların ardından Cezayir rejim elitleri nasıl oldu da bu kadar dirençli bir otoriter rejim geliştirebildiler? Rejim 1990’larda içine düştüğü siyasal krizden nasıl bir dönüşümle çıkmayı başardı ve bu dönüşüm rejimim hayatta kalma dinamiklerini nasıl etkiledi? Bu sorulara yanıt verirken bu makale Cezayir’de otoriter rejimin dönüşümünü vaka analizi yoluyla incelemekte ve bulgularını saha araştırması sırasında yapılmış mülakatlarla desteklemektedir. Buna göre rejim 1990’lar öncesinde hayatta kalmak için kullandığı araçlar daha sınırlı olmuştur. Ancak 1990’larda rejim bir yandan bazı eski araçlarını yeniden yapılandırırken bazı yeni araçları kullanıma sokarak hayatta kalma araçlarını çeşitlendirmiştir. Bu çerçevede rejimin 1990’larla beraber hayatta kalmak için farklı ihtiyaçları daha iyi karşılayabilen araçları üç grupta ele alınabilir. Birincisi doğal kaynak gelirleri gibi eskiden beri kullanılan araçlar, ikincisi baskı aygıtlarını güçlendirilmesi ve meşruiyetin yeniden tanımlaması yoluyla yenilenen ve geliştirilen araçlar, üçüncüsü ise siyasal liberalleşmeyi aktif bir şekilde kullanmaya başlamak ve muhalefetten gelebilecek tehditleri kontrol edebilmek için çok partili seçim sistemi yerleştirmekle geliştirilen yeni araçlardır. İşte bu yeniden yapılanma sayesinde Cezayir rejimi 1990’larla beraber dirençli ve modern bir seçimli otoriter rejime dönüşmüştür. Bunun sonucu olarak da rejim 2000’lerle beraber yükselen tehditlere daha başarılı bir şekilde yanıt verebilecek hale gelmiştir. Cezayir vakası üzerinden ilerleyen bu makale bir yandan ülkedeki rejimin dönüşümünü gösterirken bir yandan da yakın dönemde dünyanın dört bir yanında otoriter rejimlerin yaşadığı dönüşümlere de bir örnek sunarak literatürle bağlantılar kurmaktadır.