Electoral Arena Research Articles

JUST REKINDLE HOPE? SOCIAL AND POLITICAL IMPACTS OF THE 15M MOVEMENT IN SPAIN


 
 
 How to identify and assess the social and political impacts of a social movement such as the 15M/Indignados in Spain? A particular challenge comes up, first, when its limits and identity are blurred so here we distinguish three types of movement goals and explain how they emerged. Secondly, in order to evaluate their achievements we pay special attention to the usually neglected dimensions of movements’ impacts – their self-reproduction, the non-institutional effects and the ‘unintended consequences’. We argue that the 15M was able to challenge the authorities over the first three years of its existence by creating a counter-hegemonic political culture as well as a manifold set of practical initiatives of self-organisation. However, the institutional impacts were very limited, in spite of some significant successes and side-effects in the electoral arena. This is mainly explained by the resilient cohesion of the power elites and the continuation of the prevailing socio- economic structures.
 
 

Vertical linkages between regional and national electoral arenas and their impact on multilevel democracy

ABSTRACT By adopting a multilevel system perspective, we derive three insights from the analyses on regional elections presented in this third annual review of regional elections. First, we argue that Poland, South Korea and the USA can be conceived as aggregated bipolar party systems where competition at the nationwide level revolves around two parties whereas single parties dominate in the regions. Second, drawing on the cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Kenya, and Nigeria, we claim that the integration of multilevel party systems (also) depends on the extent of collaboration between parties from the national and regional electoral arenas. Third, significant vote-switching revealed by election surveys held in Denmark and Sweden poses a significant challenge for theories on regional voting. We conclude by considering the wider implications of these three insights for multilevel democracy.

Quotas, the Electoral System Type and the Election of Young Women

AbstractThis article focuses on a specific group of legislators facing large hurdles during recruitment processes, namely young women. Building on the institutional literature, we hypothesize that gender quota regulations, youth quotas, and proportional representation (PR) electoral systems should particularly benefit young women. Our quantitative study, capturing one hundred elections conducted between 2012 and 2017, finds partial support for our expectations. For the three hypotheses, we find that legislative quotas and voluntary party quotas for both youths and gender do not significantly increase the share of young women. In contrast, PR electoral systems render the electoral arena less discriminatory toward younger women.

One or two arenas? The break-up between national and regional elections

ABSTRACT This paper shows that the role of national electoral dynamics on regional elections is highly mediated by institutional and electoral constraints at the regional level. Using data on statewide parties’ electoral competition in regional and national elections in Spain and Italy, results show that the contamination of regional elections is lower in regions where decentralization has travelled further and where strong regionalist parties dominate electoral competition. The paper also shows that these two channels -more regional authority and more regionalist competition- shape the regional manifestos of statewide parties by increasing their pro-regional positions. These findings represent a contribution to a better understanding of the extent to which regional elections are a separate electoral arena from the national one.

Dinamika Organisasi Sosial Islam dalam Pemilihan Gubernur Jawa Tengah

Identity politics is a response to political behaviour by a person or group of people who share an identity, such as ethnicity, religion, culture, and gender. Identity politics is also often related to discourse (issue, language, imagery, or other communication expressions) to be used as one of the instruments for the political elite, which is usually done in the electoral arena. Identity politics always emphasizes the interests of its group, in the political identity of tribes and ethnicity to be an important role as a symbol of culture that has its own potential and gives strength in conducting political action. Using a qualitative analytical approach, this paper tried to see the position of one of the Islamic-based community organizations in the election governor and deputy governor of Central Java. The association between NU as a religious social organization with the process and political reality is happening. This paper essentially shows that Islamic Community organizations has evolved into a religious social organization that has increasingly dynamic and open political minds and attitudes. But NU's political position is culturally welcome NU citizens to be active in any practical political activity but NU insists that it does not reflect the NU movement institutionally an individual movement.

Colonialism and the Construction of Religious Identities in Punjab: The Case of Muslims

The colonial state of India referred to as the Raj introduced multiple changes and sought modifications in the socio-cultural, political and economic spheres in the province of Punjab. Being the last province annexed and rendered the part of British Indian Empire, forming North Western area with proximity to the Russian Empire and contributing heavily, never lower than fifty per cent of the total British Indian Army, Punjab attained a special significance for the Raj. By the turn of nineteenth century, the extensive network of canals turned this area into a ‘basket of bread.’ Similar to the unprecedented physical infrastructure feats, the British carried out social-engineering as well to attain calculated goals. In addition, the colonialism was conjoined by colonial modernity which included, inter alia, decennial census and its concomitant process of enumeration, massive use of printing press and burgeoning press and publications market, electoral arenas of politics, and formation of a large number of social organizations. It provided impetus to the redefinition of social and political identities and an assertive quest for social mobility. This redefinition of increasingly religiously informed social and cultural identities among Muslims of Punjab in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century is the focus of this paper.

Football activism as political contention: Contextual determinants of membership in the association of supporters of Hajduk Split

Where do politically activist football supporters come from? What are the social conditions under which they are successfully recruited and mobilised? This article answers those questions by analysing a unique dataset of more than 43,000 members of Our Hajduk – the association of supporters of the Croatian club Hajduk Split – as well as a host of data on the communities they live in. The analysis shows that Our Hajduk thrives in exactly the same areas where most other social, civil and political organisations thrive: among the more educated and more socio-economically successful. Most importantly, the analysis shows that the pattern of Our Hajduk membership closely follows the patterns of political affiliation and participation in Croatia’s electoral arena and is guided by the opposition to political players who have dominated Croatian football and turned it into a social field marked by corruption and mismanagement.

Explaining the impact of new parties in the Western European party systems

ABSTRACTIn recent years, and particularly following the impact of the “great recession”, Western European party systems have undergone profound change. New parties have emerged and been successful, thus radically changing the structure of inter-party competition. So far, research on new parties has been mainly conducted from party-level and election-centred perspectives. Here, instead, we focus on party system innovation (PSInn), meaning the impact of new parties on Western European party systems, and on the factors that explain such impact, by adopting a systemic perspective and taking into account all the arenas where inter-party competition takes place (i.e. elections, parliaments and governments). For this purpose, this article relies on an original dataset on the performances of new parties in terms of votes, seats, and ministerial posts, covering about 350 elections and 670 governments in 20 countries, over the period 1945–2017. The results of the analysis show a notable increase in PSInn over the last decade, in particular with regard to the electoral and parliamentary arenas. Moreover, data show that PSInn in the electoral and the parliamentary arenas is mainly predicted by turnout change, while in the governmental arena is instead driven by the country’s economic performance.

Plutocratic leadership in the electoral arena: three Mitteleuropean cases of personal wealth in politics

Two of the most consequential trends in European politics over the past decade have been the rise of populism and the progressive personalization of elections. The present article seeks to link them by focusing on a third phenomenon: the entry of plutocrats (individuals with systemically relevant material resources, who can afford to finance their own campaigns and parties) into direct political competition. The phenomenon is analyzed with reference to the literature on new and entrepreneurial parties, stressing the strategic freedom financial independence affords. The weakening of the traditional mediation function of political parties is identified as the initial structural shock allowing for plutocratic entry. Plutocratic politicians’ activities are studied with regard to party organization, ideological stance, communication style, and institutionalization chances. The theoretical framework is developed inductively from a close contextual analysis of three Mitteleuropean cases: Frank Stronach and Team Stronach in Austria, Andrej Babis and ANO in the Czech Republic, and Christoph Blocher and the SVP in Switzerland.

Chasing Fool’s Gold? Converting U.S. Senate Appointments into Election

Existing scholarship on the electoral careers of U.S. Senate appointees has made progress toward identifying the determinants of appointee success and failure in the electoral arena. This study builds on these analyses by considering the universe of Senate appointees and examining each stage of the electoral process, including the decision to run. In addition, appointee personal characteristics, including gender and dynastic familial relationships, which have not been investigated in past work are examined here. The results demonstrate the centrality of personal attributes, specifically previous elective office and familial connections, to the electoral fate of appointees. These findings have implications for governors who make appointments, the role of family dynasties in elections, and the elements of incumbency that help to create electoral advantage.

Democracy and electoral reforms in Mexico

In Mexico, the electoral arena has experienced substantial transformations throughout the last decades. It has changed from an overwhelming stage of domination by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to a competitive struggle between diverse political parties, where pre-electoral coalitions (PECS) and political alternation are a recurrent phenomenon. This paper seeks to explain the switch from an hegemonic party system (with authoritarian characteristics) to a democratic multi-party system, by stating that the Mexican Public Administration´s modernization, but especially the electoral reforms, have favored a phased configuration of a larger (and more competitive) number of parties and neutral electoral institutions. The argument is built upon the analysis of several documentary research, based on the 1977, 1986, 1990, 1996, and 2014 electoral reforms, federal and local electoral results, concluding with the Mexican political system´s development implications.

What are we gonna be when we grow up? SYRIZA's institutionalisation and its new “governing party” role

The aim of this paper is to analyse the organizational model of one of the most successful European radical left parties, the Greek Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA). Our goal is to analyse SYRIZA's organizational transition from the electoral arena to the government (2015). Our main finding is that SYRIZA started as a socially-oriented organization led by an oligarchic dominant coalition and converted itself into a political party, characterized by a prevailing role of the party in public office/party government. Both the institutional environment and the party organization's first configuration have had an impact on this change.

Electoral violence under different contexts. Evidence from the Western Balkans

AbstractThe paper addresses the question of what settings are empirically relevant for the occurrence of electoral violence in the region of Western Balkans and what theoretical paths may cover their logic. Electoral violence has been part of the electoral arenas in the region for decades and although it has evolved and in some cases disappeared, a number of countries still experience it. The paper analyses original data on electoral violence collected from the OSCE monitoring reports covering fifty‐six parliamentary elections organized between 1990 and 2015. Applying fuzzy‐set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the paper identifies four sub‐models under which electoral violence is observed. The conjunctural logic that defines each and every of the discussed paths within the sub‐models shows that the scenarios of electoral violence in the Western Balkans are always complex and potentially relevant conditions are never sufficient for the outcome on their own.

Changing the issues of the electoral arena: do parties and voters move together?

Electoral dynamics are linked to a set of cleavages that divide the electorate among groups of voters. These cleavages are theorized to be behind the electoral coalitions formed, and their change is supposed to trigger electoral realignments. That said, not much is known about the ways in which these cleavages change beyond studies analysing big, drastic and unusual realignments. Combining a wide array of data sources, this paper is able to test, in a cross-sectional and dynamic way, the relationship between the cleavages emphasized at the party debate and the cleavages associated with voters’ behaviour. It proves that the links between the two spheres are more complicated than sometimes assumed. The finding has important implications for the understanding of party competition dynamics and electoral mandates.

THE ELECTORAL CLOUT OF UNIONS IN JAPAN: VOTE MOBILIZATION IN COMPANY TOWNS

AbstractInterest groups and other organizations are crucial vehicles for voter mobilization, but variations in their capacities are not well understood. To clarify the ways in which vote mobilization capacities vary, I analyze vote mobilization in two private-sector industrial unions supporting the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The Japanese Federation of Textile, Chemical, Food, Commercial Service and General Workers’ Union (UA Zensen), has a very large membership but mobilizes few votes. The Confederation of Japan Automobile Worker's Unions (JAW), on the other hand, has fewer members but mobilizes more votes. In this article, I argue that unions whose constituent units operate company towns are most successful in mobilizing votes. Organizational capacity –independent of membership size – matters in the electoral arena. Using data from House of Councillors elections, I show that those industrial unions that include many enterprises with company towns have advantage in voter mobilization.

Not in My Backyard: Do Increases in Immigration Cause Political Violence?

While far-right parties profit electorally from rising immigration, we know very little about how increases in immigration mobilize opposition outside the electoral arena. Using fine-grained, classified data from the Federal Criminal Office in Germany, we estimate the causal effect of a sizable increase in asylum-seekers in a community on the probability of xenophobic hate crimes. Exploiting county-level quota regimes governing the allocation of asylum-seekers in Germany, we find that when immigration levels rise nationally, an increase in asylum-seeker arrivals in a community causes an increase in xenophobic hate crimes. We also document that these crimes are directed against asylum-seekers and not other non-natives, which suggests that they are instrumental actions intended to dispel and deter asylum-seekers from local communities.

Presidential Elections in Post-December Romania - Bivalent Influences on Democratization

In the light of the realities of the 21st century, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the road to democratic consolidation is a two-way street. Free, fair, competitive elections are, of course, the minimum condition for democratization for young democracies. Elections can, to a large extent, influence the way of democratic consolidation and intrinsic characteristics. Highlighting a relationship between presidential elections and democratization requires an analysis beyond the procedures and the structural opportunities that the electoral context confers. If, in the case of Romania, the transition game is considered to be concluded with the abolition of the totalitarian regime and the organization of the first free elections, the game of democratic consolidation continues. Each round of elections raises or lowers the stake of the upcoming competition. In this succession of elections, the post-December history holds a few moments as a landmark of democratization. If we overlap them with times of alternation in governance, the discussion of democratic consolidation is suddenly simplified, applying the double alternation rule. If, however, we interpret the key to the civic pulse, we will overlap these moments rather over the presidential ballots. A first argument in this respect is the still high vote to elect the president, only competed with the vote for mayors and local councillors. But does the presidential election more than other types of elections in post-December Romania influence the course of democratization and how? Does it impede or, on the contrary, boost democratic consolidation? The answer can provide insight into the construction and institutional solidity of democracy in Romania over the last three decades. The focal point of the analysis will be the dynamics of the relations between the main actors of the electoral arena: representatives of the power, opposition and voters.

Political parties and the transnational mobilisation of the emigrant vote

The relationship between political parties and voters is usually analysed in a national framework. However, the majority of states worldwide allow their emigrant citizens to have an absentee vote. This article analyses how parties confront the challenge of mobilising voters across borders. It presents an analytical framework for comparing the scope of party transnational mobilisation strategies across different electoral systems. Drawing on a contextualised qualitative analysis, the article analyses transnational electoral mobilisation of the emigrant vote in recent elections in Spain, France, Italy and Romania. The analysis shows that a cost–benefit analysis of electoral incentives explains the scope of transnational campaign efforts of many of the political parties. Yet the article also suggests locating the analysis of party strategies in the particular context of the transnational electoral field, including the high dispersion, uncertainty and volatility of the emigrant vote and the overlap between the electoral arenas among emigrants and at home.

Has the gender gap in voter turnout really disappeared?

According to conventional wisdom, the traditional gender gap in voting has disappeared or even reversed in most established democracies. Drawing on the existing literature on differences between the sexes in political engagement and on pioneering voter turnout theories, this article questions the conventional assumption and hypothesises that women still participate at a lower rate in less important elections. It systematically tests this hypothesis by exploring the impact of gender on voter turnout in different electoral arenas. The empirical analyses of two cross-national datasets (Making Electoral Democracy Work and the European Election Study) demonstrate that although there is generally no gender gap in first-order elections, women tend to vote less than men in second-order contests. This reflects lower levels of interest in politics among women and their lower levels of knowledge about politics when it comes to second-order elections.

The Unequal Distribution of Speaking Time in Parliamentary‐Party Groups

Parliamentary debates provide an arena where Members of Parliament (MPs) present, challenge, or defend public policies. However, the “plenary bottleneck” allows the party leadership to decide who participates in a debate. We argue that in this decision the timing of a debate matters: in proximity of elections, the leadership should be concerned with maintaining its brand name and therefore restrict floor access, in particular if the debate is salient for the respective party. We evaluate our hypotheses in a cross‐country study drawing on a novel data set covering all speeches given during one or two legislative terms in six European parliaments. We find that the electoral cycle matters for the distribution of speaking time: Party leaders do restrict parliamentary speechmaking to a smaller number of MPs at the end of the term. This has important implications for our understanding of parliaments as an electoral arena and for our understanding of intraparty politics.