Elections In France Research Articles

Euroscepticism in France. The threat of Frexit against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic

The research subject is the manifestation of Euroscepticism in France, in the political arena and among the citizens. The purpose of the research is the definition of the prospects of French withdrawal from the European Union. The purpose is specified in tasks determining the structure of the article: firstly, the analysis of economic and political institutions of the EU which helps to establish the sources of Euroscepticism ideas in the Republic. Secondly, the analysis of the dynamics of Euroscepticism against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic, which helps to find out how the 2020 emergency situation has influenced the growth of anti-EU ideas in France. The research methods include the political, sociological and historiographic analysis. The Schengen Zone has exacerbated the migration problem in the EU, the 2003 Dublin Regulation has unequally allocated responsibility of the EU members for refugees sheltering. The dependence of France’s economy on the actions of the ESCB, the lack of the opportunity to participate in economic decision making at the supranational level, the common currency system, and the political order of the EU are the key grievances of the Eurosceptics. The anti-EU ideas in France can become significant against the background of the growing popularity of the protectionist policy under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. As Brussels is not in a good position against external threats, and the EU members lack solidarity, the idea of a Frexit referendum can receive a new impetus in the context of the upcoming presidential election in France in 2022.  

Assessing the unidimensionality of political opinions. An indirect test of the persuasion bias

In an influential paper, (DeMarzo et al., 2003) propose a modelf of persuasion bias whereby people are overly influenced by repetitive information. Such a persuasion bias leads political opinions to be unidimensional with individuals converging to a single “left-right” dimension on every issues. Using a large dataset on political opinions on a wide range of issues just before a presidential election in France, I test whether political opinions are indeed unidimensional. I find that political opinions are far from being unidimensional and I discuss what it means for the persuasion model.

How costly is voting? Explaining individual differences in the costs of voting

ABSTRACT A more profound analysis of the variables in the voting equation is needed to improve our knowledge on voting. In this paper, we endogenize the costs of voting (C) and test several models with the help of the Making Electoral Democracy Work database, which contains information on C and its potential determinants for national elections in France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and Canada. We test whether C is affected by socio-demographic and attitudinal factors related to: (a) informational costs, (b) the costs of the act of voting itself, and (c) those bound to lead to an ex-ante rationalization of C. By doing so, we contribute to bridging the rational choice and the sociological and psycho-sociological models of voting. We find strong evidence that the three types of factors have a statistical and substantive effect on C. In particular, C falls with party identification, education, union membership, years in the region where the elections are held, interest in politics and the importance attributed to elections, while it is higher for women and rural dwellers. Age shows a curvilinear relationship, initially reducing C and increasing it later. Contrary to expected, the presence of kids at home does not significantly increase C.

The Convergence of Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in France: Analysis of Systemic Tendencies from the Perspective of Sixty Years of the Fifth Republic

The paper deals with specific links between presidential and parliamentary elections in contemporary France. The main goal is to demonstrate that the timing of the two types of political events is a significant factor preserving the configuration of a pro-presidential majority fact as one of the possible variants of French semi-presidentialism. This raises the question of the role of both elections as instruments for controlling the process of setting up a space of political rivalry that could be perceived as optimal from the viewpoint of ruling camps. The author analyses possibilities to provide the convergence of presidential and parliamentary elections under the conditions of a seven-year presidential term as well as after its shortening to five years in 2000. Hence, of particular importance is the impact of some mechanisms used in this field on the institutional logic of the French political system. Specific application of constitutional tools and some normative changes introduced in previous years cause the extent of the aforementioned control to be now much greater than in the first decades of the Fifth Republic. Looking at the convergence of both types of elections from the perspective of the evolution of the existing political system, the author argues that it is legitimate to divide the whole period of the Fifth Republic into three sub-periods: 1. the absence of electoral convergence (1958–1981); 2. partial electoral convergence (1981– –2002); full electoral convergence (since 2002). Due to the acceptance of the pro-presidential paradigm, the latter formula is now definitely preferred and supported by legal regulations, which affects the flexibility of French semi-presidentialism (significantly reduced, but not fully eliminated, probability of cohabitation).

АБЕРРАЦИИ ВОСПРИЯТИЯ СОЦИАЛ ЬНЫХ РЕАЛИЙ: ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ

The socio-economic and political behavior of individuals is largely shaped by how they perceive the reality. These perceptions often differ from objective facts. This gives rise to perception errors that can significantly affect the economic and political environment. In modern societies, people worry the most about migration, unemployment, income inequality, etc. The paper analyzes misconceptions that arise around those issues: people tend to exaggerate the level of unemployment, the scale of migration, the degree of income differentiation. The authors conclude that it is possible to avoid some of those misconceptions. To do so, the authorities should provide citizens with reliable information about the most important socio-economic processes. Otherwise, perception errors can make individuals lose their sense of stability and security and decrease their level of life satisfaction. These errors can also lead to growth in xenophobic mood, dissatisfaction with government actions, protests, and to an increase in support for radical right and left parties. In addition to that, the authors study the connection between subjective perception of reality and growing support for populism. The empirical analysis shows that the electoral support of populists in a number of European countries is due to the perceived scale of migration, rather than the actual one. Unreasonable fears associated with the influx of migrants, general dissatisfaction with life, pessimism about the future largely provided support for the decision on Brexit, D. Trump’s victory, M. Le Pen’s exit in the second round of the presidential election in France and the formation of a right-left government coalition in Italy. The authors conclude that the shifts in voters’ preferences are closely connected with people’s subjective views on socio-economic phenomena. Worsening subjective social well-being of citizens can lead to changes in the political environment. Hence, to understand the processes that occur in modern society it is important to study subjective perceptions and how they are formed.

Visual discourse of president elections in France: iconographic analysis of official candidate posters

Visual discourse of president elections in France: iconographic analysis of official candidate posters

The Russian Federation Information Influence (the Czech Republic case study)

Nowadays the hybrid attacks that use propaganda and fake news and are actively inculcated by the information centers under the control of Russian Federation on the territories of EU countries present serious threat not only to Ukraine in the view of disseminating false information about the events in our country but to the population of EU countries who are the final users of such information as well. On the basis of examples fixed by the European representatives concerning a great number of facts when Russia interfered into the process of elections in France and Germany, hackers attacks on social networks of Great Britain during public discussions and referendum on Brexit, we ascertained that the informational presence of the RF propaganda schemes played the decisive role in choosing the European policy, presaged Brexit and ensured the growth of European populists rating on the eve of the important political processes in a number of countries. The aim of the article is to show the means and methods of Russian information propaganda in EU countries on the example of the Chech Republic. Such methods of Russian information propaganda as strict following the multilingual principle while disseminating the same information to different resources in different countries; active usage of English as a mediator; usage of local internet resources; broadcasting the reiterative stories about the migrants from Arab states, the threat of Islamism for Europe, criticism of Western political elite, military crises in Ukraine; forming the image of Russia as the main opponent of aggressive US policy, the symbol of stability; focusing on the negative news, i.e. on protests, political rows, notorious retirements in EU and Western countries; ignoring the success and achievements etc. have been defined. We came to the conclusion that hybrid war in Ukraine drew attention of not only the European population but of the whole world to political, media and social phenomena that is the information war of Russia vs. Ukraine and in broad aspect – to a modern propaganda of Russia which has already challenged the whole democratic world, with an impact on public opinion formation and views of young people. Key words: hybrid war, misinformation, information influence, information propaganda.

Прецедентные имена исторических деятелей и реалий в поликодовых видеотекстах российской и французской политической рекламы: коммуникативно-прагматический аспект

The article is devoted to precedent proper names in the composition of political promotional videos / video texts that have a polycode and dynamic character. The study is based on video texts of political advertising distributed during the presidential elections in France in 2017 and in Russia in 2018. The results of the comparative analysis of communicative strategies and tactics involving French and Russian precedent names from the conceptual category “Historical figures and realities” in the broadcast of political messages are presented. Particular attention is paid to the specifics of the interaction of precedent proper names with nonverbal context. The role of the case-signs in the realization of the impact of communicative functions and the transfer of current political meanings in policode advertising works are clarified. As a result of comparative observations, some trends in the use of case names in political videos of two countries are revealed. It is established that the precedent names of historical figures and realities in Russian video texts are characterized by a greater variety than similar language units in French video clips. It is noted that the considered precedent names in French videos serve exclusively for the implementation of the communicative strategy of self-presentation, while in Russian video clips precedent signs are used in the framework of strategies of self-presentation and discredit.

The Earthquake of the European Election in France. About Front National, French Party System and Politics

The Earthquake of the European Election in France. About Front National, French Party System and Politics

Voting Behavior in the 2017 Presidential and Legislative Elections in France

Voting Behavior in the 2017 Presidential and Legislative Elections in France

The phantom revolution. The presidential and parliamentary elections of 2017

The 2017 Presidential elections in France brought victory for President Emmanuel Macron, founder of a new party declaring itself above left and right, La République en Marche. The Parliamentary elections confirmed this success and brought an absolute majority of députés in support of the new president. Macron appointed a prime minister from the centre right, and ministers from both the centre left and centre right, alongside others who were non-aligned. But this attempt to go beyond traditional cleavages is not in fact the departure it has been described as by Macron and his allies, and it has much in common with the general orientation of many governments over the past few decades, of both left and right. In particular, it is highly neo-liberal, pro-business and at the same time socially liberal. Moreover, just as important as the governmental consequences of the elections are other aspects of the results, which may be of great long-term significance; these include the strong support for the Front national and Marine Le Pen, substantial support for alternative left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and La France Insoumise, record-high levels of spoiled ballots and abstentions, not to mention the historic defeat of the Parti socialiste and its consequent disarray.

Hybrid war: Russian contemporary political warfare

ABSTRACTRussia is waging a far-reaching political warfare effort against US interests in Europe and elsewhere, an effort facilitated by the Internet, cyber tools, cable news, and especially social media. This persistent political warfare effort largely eschews traditional military force; rather, it is focused on influencing the populations of targeted countries. Though the effects of Russian political warfare operations are hard to measure, they have likely had some effect on elections in France, the Netherlands, and elsewhere. Factors that make nations vulnerable to political warfare include physical proximity to Russia, high levels of corruption, contested politics, and cultural or historical affinities with Russia. If left unchecked, political warfare can do great damage to US power and interests by creating unwanted tensions, weakening allies, and eroding faith in democracy. The United States, as an open and democratic society, is at an automatic disadvantage when it comes to countering Russian political warfare. Nonetheless, Washington can seek to defend its interests by investing in effective counter-messaging, ensuring that the US intelligence community has the analytical and collection resources it needs, prioritizing anti-corruption programs in certain countries, and helping to build defense institutions in allied and partner nations.

An atypical ‘honeymoon’ election? Contextual and strategic opportunities in the 2017 French legislative elections

This article places the 2017 French legislative elections in the broader context of confirmatory legislative elections in France. It argues that Emmanuel Macron’s victory, whilst rooted in the specific political opportunity structure of the 2017 elections, is also a by-product of the broader institutional logic of ‘honeymoon’ legislative races. We look first at key aspects relating to the confirmatory status of post-presidential elections in France, and ask to what extent the 2017 elections fit this model. We then examine how La Republique en Marche! was able to adapt to the political opportunity structures of this election, particularly the ‘goodness-of-fit’ of their strategic location as regards previous party attachments and civil society profiles. The paper concludes that, whilst disrupting the traditional bipolar format of French politics, Macron’s undeniable success in 2017 was primarily the tactical maximization of a propitious institutional and political competitive landscape amidst voter apathy and party fragmentation, and not a popular surge of support for a political saviour.

QUARTERLY OUTLOOK ON MONETARY, BANKING, AND PAYMENT SYSTEM IN INDONESIA: QUARTER I, 2017

Globally, the economy continues to recover. The economic growth in AS increases supported by solid consumption and increase on non-residential investment, as well as the economy of Tiongkok, supported by private investment and better export performance. European economy also better off with stronger consumption and export, and the reduction of geopolitical risk post the presidential election in France. The economy in Japan also increases supported by stronger domestic and export demand. This global trend supports the growth in Indonesia that rises to the level of 5,01% (yoy), with the pillars of exportperformance, better global demand and commodity prices, as well as higher government expenditure – particularly on investment – and the household consumption. Spatially, the national growth was mainly from Java and Kalimantan due to their better export performance. Inflation increases slightly particularly related to price regulation implemented in early 2017. Spatially, inflation occurs in most area except Sumatera who recorded deflation. The balance of payment recorded a surplus arisen from financial and capital surplus of 7.9 milliard dolar AS. However, the current account recorded deficit due to the deficit of oil trade balance and primary income. The reserve increases to 121.8 miliar dolar AS, accompanied with stronger Rupiah with lower volatility relative to peer countries. Following the monetary ease on previous Quarter IV, 2016, the monetary transmission is better yet not optimal due to the prudent practice of the bank on allocating credit. The interest rate decreases reflected on daily PUAB O/N reduction by 7 point to 4.23%. The deposit rate also decreases as well as the lending rate with larger decrease. Lookingforward, the growth in 2017 will be higher than 2016 on the range of 5.0 – 5.4%, while inflation will be around the target of 4 + 1%. We need to anticipate the impact of Fed Fund Rate increase, the lower of FED balance, and the trade and fiscal US policy, as well as the geopolitical dynamics across regions particularly in Korean Bay. Bank Indonesia will keep strengthening his policy mix and macroprudential, and his coordination with the government to ensure the inflation control, greater stimulus for growth, and the implementation of structural reform run on the right track, and hence preserve the sustainable economic development.

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Economic OutlookVolume 41, Issue s3 p. 1-37 Articles World Economic Prospects Monthly First published: 22 March 2017 https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0319.12269AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract Overview: Reflation enthusiasm is tempered ▀ We have kept our world GDP growth forecasts unchanged this month, at 2.6% for 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. But our outlook for inflation has been lowered to 3.0% this year (from 3.3% last month) as inflation is close to a peak in several economies and oil prices have fallen recently. ▀ Global indicators continue to point to buoyant activity, driven by manufacturing. The global manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level in almost six years in February, which in turn is boosting world trade. Despite the exuberance shown by the surveys, we remain cautious. We continue to expect a slowdown in consumer spending as households are squeezed by higher prices. ▀ Although we still see GDP growth in the US accelerating this year, we have lowered our forecast to 2.1% as economic data have been weaker than expected at the start of the year. Large uncertainties around our central forecast persist given the unpredictability of President Trump's policies, and markets have tempered their initial enthusiasm regarding the success of ‘Trumponomics’. ▀ With the Federal Reserve now close to meeting its dual mandate, the pace of policy normalisation will accelerate. We now expect the Fed to raise interest rates this month and three times overall this year. This means that US bond yields are likely to continue to rise and the euro will remain under pressure due to the widening interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone. ▀ The Eurozone economy remains resilient ahead of key elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany. Our view remains that populist fears are overstated and that Emmanuel Macron is still favourite to become the next French president. ▀ Many emerging markets have started 2017 with positive momentum, but caution remains the name of the game as the Fed prepares to raise rates faster than previously expected and the future of US trade policy remains uncertain. Volume41, Issues3March 2017Pages 1-37 RelatedInformation

When Electoral Competition Determines Disproportionality. Majority Bonus and Regional Elections in France and Italy

When Electoral Competition Determines Disproportionality. Majority Bonus and Regional Elections in France and Italy

An American looks at Europe, March 2017

This speculative essay considers, from an American perspective, the state of Europe in late March 2017. With the United States seeming to distance itself from Europe both militarily and economically in the wake of the election of Donald Trump, the EU finds itself facing new challenges. Will member states seek closer cooperation on border and security matters owing to their inability to make further progress toward economic integration? Will populist opposition to the EU intensify the crisis provoked by the British vote to leave? What implications do impending elections in France and Germany hold for the future of “ever closer union?”

The effects of primaries on electoral performance: France and Italy in comparative perspective

For some years now the clamour for the democratisation of internal party politics has been spreading. This issue has been addressed in Italy and France. In the run-up to the 2013 parliamentary election in Italy and the 2012 presidential election in France, leftist coalitions held open primary elections to select their chief executive candidates, with Pier Luigi Bersani and Francois Hollande finally emerging as nominees. In this article, we examine whether the levels of turnout and competition in the party primaries are associated with the results of the general election. Using data at the level of the Italian province and the French departement, we show that the results of the general election were affected by the primaries. We show that turnout enhanced electoral performance, while competition depressed it. The positive effects of turnout were greater than the negative effects of competition.

From Political Fringe to Political Mainstream: The Front National and the 2014 Municipal Elections in France

From Political Fringe to Political Mainstream: The Front National and the 2014 Municipal Elections in France

Europe’s salience and ‘owning’ Euroscepticism: Explaining the Front National’s victory in the 2014 European elections in France

This article explains the victory of the Front National (FN) in the May 2014 European elections in France. Taking issue with standard academic accounts that conceive of the latter as ‘second-order’ elections, it argues that the FN won by harnessing voters’ growing anxiety about European integration as an electoral issue. First, the article contends that, on the backdrop of worsening unemployment and social crisis, Europe assumed unprecedented salience in both national and European elections. In turn, it argues that by staking out a Europhobe position in contrast to the mainstream parties and the radical left, the FN claimed effective ‘ownership’ over the European issue, winning the bulk of the Eurosceptic vote to top the electoral field.