Electoral Violence Research Articles

Ethnic cooperation and conflict in Kenya

There is growing evidence that ethnic divisions and conflict experiences affect social capital and economic interactions in both positive and negative ways. We conduct a set of experiments measuring social capital in Kenya between the two largest ethnic groups, the Luo and Kikuyu, who experienced violence in the 2007 and 2008 post-electoral riots. Our findings indicate trust, coordination, altruism, and cooperation between these groups are not affected by priming people on the ethnic identity of their partners or on the salience of election conflict. Our results suggest electoral violence does not necessarily lead to changes in economic behavior between ethnic groups and that cooperative failure across groups may be easily overstated or might have other mechanisms. These findings are consistent with recent evidence suggesting that experience of electoral violence in Kenya does not correlate with laboratory behavior between the Luo and Kikuyu.

Violent Elections and Citizens’ Support for Democratic Constraints on the Executive: Evidence From Nigeria

How do violent elections affect the willingness of citizens to defend democratic institutions? We argue that in the wake of violent elections, support for democratic constraints on the executive will diverge amongst ruling and opposition party supporters. To protect their position, ruling party supporters become more likely to endorse weakening constraints on executive power, even if it violates democratic principles. Opposition supporters, on the other hand, become more likely to reject democratic transgressions that de facto render them more vulnerable to political abuse. We examine these expectations using a vignette experiment embedded in a nationally representative 2019 post-election survey of 2400 Nigerians. Our findings suggest that incumbent supporters are overall more likely to endorse weaker constraints on the executive, but these attitudes are not reinforced by information about election violence. Opposition supporters, in contrast, become less likely to accept transgressions when informed about election violence.

English

Voters are essential to democracy, as they wield the authority to select government leaders through their choices during elections. Election in Nigeria is usually marred by issues that hinder the smoothness of the electoral and voting process, constituting a cause of dissatisfaction and anguish for voters. Relying on an extensive review of literature and secondary sources of data, this article exposes problems that frustrate Nigerian voters in making their political choices during elections and the implications of such challenges for democratic growth. The findings reveal that ecological factors, such as religion and ethnicity, institutional factors, such as electoral body, election logistics, the courts, and others, like electoral violence, political intimidation, etc., impede voters from making their preferred choices at the polls. It concludes that there is utmost need to sanitize the political space, through the appropriation of substantial political and economic issues, as against ethnic and religious sentiments that disadvantage some sections of voters, adequate preparation by the electoral regulatory body, impartiality of the court, the provision of sufficient security apparatus, to curb disenfranchisement and encourage voters to make their preferred choices at the polls.   Key words: Elections, Nigeria, electoral turnout, political choice, sustainable democracy, voter frustration.&nbsp

Leadership Crises and Implications for Sustainable Development in Nigeria

Nigeria has indeed struggled with socio-economic growth and development since its emancipation from colonial domination, trundling within a cycle of rent-booms, recessions, and even economic collapse. This study argues that the root cause of these socio-economic problems is poor leadership, marked by oppression, exploitation, nepotistic governance structure, electoral violence, and pervasive and systemic corruption. These negative indices have plunged the nation into a state of protracted violent conflicts, extreme poverty, weak infrastructure, rising youth unemployment and restlessness, untimely deaths, and multifaceted humanitarian crises. The paper examines the nature of political leadership and its bourgeoning effects on the development of Nigeria, using the predatory state paradigm as a guide. Relying on secondary data, the study asserts that the Nigerian ruling elites are aware of the dire situation of the country but keep aloof in order to maintain their corrupt grip on power. The study maintains that visionary leadership needs to be strategically harmonised with the abundant resources of the nation for it to get back on the track of development and instill confidence in a disenchanted populace.

Spatial Dynamics of Election Violence: How Repression Spreads Dissent around Elections

Spatial Dynamics of Election Violence: How Repression Spreads Dissent around Elections

‘Debris’ of Coups D’état: Electoral Democracy, Election Violence, Political Vigilantism, and Elections Securitizations in Africa

Recent warm reception to military takeovers and mongering for coups d’état by citizens in some African nations due primarily to the disillusionment that has accompanied the promise that democracy in a globalized world will lead to prosperity and improve standards of living coupled with the myriad of social, economic, security and political challenges have become of great concerns to scholars, social scientists, advocates, and observers of African democracy. Three decades since the publication of Huntington’s famous work, Democracy’s Third Wave and Prezeworski’s recent book “Crisis in Democracy”, political observers of Africa’s democratic transitions and consolidation are questioning whether recent successful coups and attempts since 2010 in countries such as Mali, Burkina, Faso, Niger, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Madagascar, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivory Coast, Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Gabon, Sudan amongst others raise serious questions about the future of African democracy. The numerous and successful military takeovers across the continent particularly in the West African sub-region raise a myriad of questions as to the direction of African democratic transition and consolidation. These causing many scholars, political analysts, academics, democratic advocates and experts on military takeovers/coup to begin to analyze whether recent happenings on the continent can be characterized as “debris” of coups d’état in the post-independence-democratic transitional era or a reversal of the Third Wave of democracy on the continent. Building upon earlier analytical work on military coups this paper explores the concept of securitization of elections through the recruitment and prioritized treatment of political vigilante groups into the regular and specialized security agencies) as long terms risks for “debris” of coup d’états by adopting elections as a “minimalist” or “electoralist” definition of democracy.

Electoral Politics: Democracy and Electoral Security in Nigeria

Democracy in Nigeria has been fragile and fluctuating since independence as conflict, triggered by political rivalries, violence, ethnicity, religion and insecurity, poses a major threat to her democracy. The late Nigerian political scientist and theorist, Claude Ake in 1993, warned that external and elite support for electoral democratisation was not the same as actual democracy. He argued that the substitution of democracy for elections had resulted in a struggle for power at the polls by the elite groups. To this end, the incidences of electoral violence, political competition and insecurity have since become a constant nightmare and a serious source of concern to all actors participating in the electoral system. The cornerstone of democracy is the electoral process, with a viable Election Management Board (EMB) that conducts free, fair, open and secured elections. Electoral security is one of the focal points for a successful and effective administration of the electoral process. The electoral process must be geared towards building citizens' confidence, especially by ensuring that votes are cast anonymously and without coercion, while also making sure that election results reflect the collective will of the voters. With the aid of secondary sources of data, using content analysis, the paper concludes that defending elections not only involves protecting voting units and ballots, but also protecting the functions, resources and technologies that support election processes and which help manage voters and election results in Nigeria. In order to protect our electoral politics in Nigeria, there is a need for an effective and secure electoral process, laced with a credible and acceptable outcome. This paper emphasises on security as a crucial condition in the context of elections, such that it assists in establishing an enabling environment that is conducive to holding democratic polls.

Voting System and Electoral Malpractices in Nigeria: A Case Study of the Fourth Republic of Nigeria

This paper examines the effect of voting system and electoral malpractices in Nigeria with the fourth republic as the case study (1999 - 2023). In carrying out this work, two theories will be used: game theory will be used as the first context in the area of study, to explain reasons for why electoral malpractices is inherent in Nigeria voting system while the theory of E-Democracy will be used as the way forward for electoral malpractices and violence in Nigerian voting system. Game theory is a theoretical framework used in the explanation of many phenomena in political science, politics, economics, psychology etc, and game theory is simply a systematic study of strategic interactions among rational individuals. A popular example of game theory in politics is the sum zero game, the sum zero has to do with which one player winning all and others losing all. In the context of election in Nigeria with reference to “to first win the post” as the dominant type of electoral system in Nigeria, two things are usually involved which is; the winner wins all and the looser loses all, as the result of this, political actors device all forms of strategy to win an election in the political actors often take advantage of the lapses inherent in the traditional paper voting system in Nigeria to advance their interest. This is through rigging, electoral violence, ballot box stuffing, falsification of electoral result multiple voting etc. the exercise of franchise is the fulcrum on which democracy revolves. Unfortunately, anti-democratic practices such as underage voting, snatching of ballot boxes, denial of voting rights to qualified physically challenges and deliberate falsification of vote figures to favour a particular candidate have greatly bastardized the democratic procedure. This scenario has simply placed a question on the Nigerian democracy. Keywords: Elections, Electoral Process, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), E-voting (Electoral Voting), Electoral Malpractices, E-democracy theory. DOI: 10.7176/PPAR/13-4-04 Publication date: May 31 st 2023

Humanitarian response to electoral violence in Nigeria-focus on 2011 general election

The 2011 election is infamously hailed as the most brutal and violent election in Nigeria’s history. Scores were killed; more were displaced from their places of residence, and; most were deprived of the basic necessities of subsistence. The way and manner that the government handled or tackled the humanitarian issue of the 2011 electoral violence have not been adequately understood. Consequently, underpinned by the social inclusion and stakeholders’ theories, this paper sets out to ascertain the humanitarian role the government has played in addressing those affected by the electoral violence of 2011. This study thus, interrogates the major stakeholder in the management of the largest internal displacement camp in Nigeria as a result of the 2011 elections. Hence, the study relies on a limited extent on primary sources of data and heavily on secondary sources of data for analysis. This study reveals that the measures being utilized by the Nigerian government in handling the humanitarian needs of the affected population, most especially internally displaced persons as a result of the aftermath of the 2011 election violence has been on an ad-hoc basis with no solid or structured modus operandi. As an illustration, some lessons learnt by the Kenyan government in addressing some of the humanitarian needs of the affected population were made reference to. In essence, this paper advocates that the government of Nigeria ensure strict, decisive and clear-cut policies on IDPs management in order to avoid ambiguity in boundaries and in the roles of agencies managing internally displaced persons.

Analysing election-related violence in the 2011 national elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo

ABSTRACT This study seeks to explore the triggers, perpetrators and consequences of electoral violence in the 2011 national elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). From the perspective of different domestic and international electoral observers, the 2011 elections in the DRC were marred by violence. A qualitative approach based on secondary resources was employed to achieve the purpose of the study. Following the content analysis of various documents related to electoral violence during the 2011 elections in the DRC, the findings of the study indicated that members of law enforcement and state agencies (police, the national intelligence agency, the Republican Guard and administrative authorities) including supporters of political parties were identified as the main perpetrators of election-related violence in the DRC. In addition, the paper showed that structural causes such as weak institutionalisation of democracy together with lack of national sense of cohesion were the potential triggers of the 2011 election-related violence in the DRC.

Why Electoral Violence Persists in Africa? A Critical Review of Literature

Abstract Electoral violence is a persistent phenomenon in Africa. Studies reveal that no single election has been held in Africa without incidents of violence. There is a surge of interest in electoral violence as an academic field, although still in its infancy. The existing literature on electoral violence primarily focuses on the concept, causes, impact and prevention mechanisms. Nevertheless, the question as to why electoral violence persists is inadequately addressed. This paper engages varied literature on electoral violence to uncover why electoral violence persists in Africa. I argue that although the literature provides diverse explanations on electoral violence in Africa, institutional account, particularly the consolidation of democratic institutions, is the most plausible explanation for why electoral violence persists.

Engaging Social Resilience as Strategic Framework in Inter-Group Relations: Implications for National Security Drive in Nigeria

The core objective of this study is to examine the extent to which the effective engagement of social resilience strategies could assist in mitigating social, economic and cultural as well as environmental disasters in Nigerian society. Research evidence from works of experts has revealed that due to the complexities of the Nigerian state, and in view of several ethnic conflicts, electoral violence, terrorism and terror attacks; banditry, flooding and many other disasters, it has been relatively complex for citizens to cope after these occurrences happen. Several states in Nigeria for example have been overtaking by increasing killings maiming, farmers-herders clashes, post-election violence, arm banditry, terrorism and insurgency. Quite a number of other states, especially those around the Niger/Benue River tributaries such as Kogi State, Delta State, Anambra state, and many riverine states, including Bayelsa and many others, have continued to face the ravaging challenges of flooding. In 2022 alone, hundreds of thousands of people have been evicted from their homes and their means of livelihood running into millions of US dollars have been destroyed by flooding. In Nigeria currently, there is a devastating effect of hunger, disease and malnutrition due to after-effect of flooding. By every standard, Nigerian citizens in some of these affected areas are living in dire strait while several farm lands have been taken over by excessive flooding, which is why there is a lingering shortage of food supply, unavailability of sea food, and lack of infrastructural development such as housing, and increasing rate of homelessness among the teeming population. This study explores works of experts in the broader field of intergroup and conflict studies designed to x-ray some of the factors and strategic policy alternatives that can be employed to mitigate adverse effects of such incidences as they pattern to the complex social groups living in the Nigerian political system. The study relies heavily on secondary research materials as a data collection method. The paper sums up with findings and recommendations.

Polls of fear? Electoral violence, incumbent strength, and voter turnout in Côte d’Ivoire

How, and under what conditions, does electoral violence influence voter turnout? Existing research often presumes that electoral violence demobilizes voters, but we lack knowledge of the conditions under which violence depresses turnout. This study takes a subnational approach to probe the moderating effect of local incumbent strength on the association between electoral violence and turnout. Based on existing work, I argue that electoral violence can reduce voter turnout by heightening threat perceptions among voters and eroding public trust in the electoral system, thereby raising the expected costs of voting and undermining the belief that one’s vote matters. Moreover, I propose that in elections contested across multiple local rather than a single national voting district, the negative effect of electoral violence on turnout should be greater in districts where the incumbent is stronger. This is because when the incumbent is stronger, voters have lesser strategic and purposive incentives to vote than voters in localities where the opposition is stronger. I test the argument by combining original subnational event data on electoral violence before Côte d’Ivoire’s 2021 legislative elections with electoral records. The results support the main hypothesis and indicate that electoral violence was associated with significantly lower voter turnout in voting districts where the incumbent was stronger, but not where the opposition was stronger. The study contributes new knowledge on the conditions under which electoral violence depresses voter turnout, and suggests that voters in opposition strongholds can be more resilient to electoral violence than often assumed.

Interrogating the Role of Indigenous Interest Groups in Mitigating Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Since the country's return to a democratic system in May 1999, Nigeria's history is rich with instances of election violence and conflicts. There is evidence in Akwa Ibom State that elections pose a threat to the state's stability and security due to the possibility of election violence. Studies have demonstrated that free and fair elections reduce conflict and produce trustworthy leadership. Using the Etim-Ekpo Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State as a case study, this paper examines the influence of indigenous interest groups in the reduction of electoral violence in Nigeria. The research design for this study was a case study. Dialectical Materialism: The J-Curve Hypothesis of Unfulfilled Hopes, a radical political-economic framework, and pluralist theories were investigated for the study's background. Seventy (n = 70) purposefully selected participants, including members of youth or interest groups, community leaders, and security professionals, provided data. Eighty percent of the responders were male, while twenty percent were female. The ages of respondents ranged between 18 and 48 years, and thematic analyses provided answers to five research questions. Political party/candidate competitiveness, arms proliferation, and unemployed youths as political thugs caused electoral violence. Election violence included gunshots, kidnappings, and vote box theft. Finally, indigenous interest groups could reduce electoral violence by working with state actors on peace-building strategies, mobilizing, educating, and involving youth in the electoral process and election security, supporting efforts to change the "Electoral Act" to favor online voting and mail-in ballots, and collaborating on water education. All governments should support alternative voting procedures, weapons control, and amnesty programs to map and check small arms. Nigeria's national, state, and local governments could prevent election violence via peace-building.

Coercion, governance, and political behavior in civil war

How do armed actors affect the outcome of elections? Recent scholarship on electoral violence shows that armed groups use violence against voters to coerce them to abstain or vote for the group’s allies. Yet this strategy is risky: coercion can alienate civilians and trigger state repression. I argue that armed actors have another option. A wide range of armed groups create governance institutions to forge ties of political authority with civilian communities, incorporating local populations into armed groups’ political projects and increasing the credibility of their messaging. The popular support, political mobilization, and social control enabled by governance offer a means to sway voters’ political behavior without resorting to election violence. I assess this argument in the context of the Peruvian civil war, in which Shining Path insurgents leveraged wealth redistribution and political propaganda to influence voting behavior. Archival evidence, time series analysis of micro-level violent event data, and a synthetic control study provide support for these claims. These results have implications for theories of electoral violence, governance by non-state actors, and political behavior in war-torn societies.

The Effects of Electoral violence on Human Rights violation: An overview of the 2015 General elections in Nigeria

The Effects of Electoral violence on Human Rights violation: An overview of the 2015 General elections in Nigeria

Television News Coverage of the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria: A Content Analysis Approach

In the Nigerian context, the broadcast media have continued to participate as active stakeholders in the electoral process. They produce various adverts, jingles, programmes and shows that aim at encouraging people to exercise their voting rights, reject electoral violence, and advocate peaceful elections. They also play important roles in social sensitization and mobilization ahead of the elections with many broadcast stations hosting debates for political aspirants. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of the programme's contents of NTA’s Political Update on voters’ participation and voting patterns in the 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The study adopted mixed methods design of the exploratory type. Sample comprised 185 respondents, including key stakeholders drawn from six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Data were collected using three instruments; NTA and FRCN Network Programme Contents Analysis Checklist (NFNProCAC); Voters’ Electoral Participation Questionnaire (VEPQ) and Key Electioneering Personalities Interview Schedule (KEPIS). Content analysis data were analyzed quantitatively, while survey data were analyzed using SPSS V25, descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings revealed that NTA’s Political Update adequately featured voter education contents prior to the 2019 General Election in Nigeria; also, majority of the respondents were regular viewers and listeners and were adequately exposed to the station contents of NTA, featuring more of voters’ education contents. Further, findings revealed that there was an overall significant relationship in the electorates’ perception of featuring voters’ education contents on NTA programmes. Lastly, more voters participated during the last general elections as a result of their exposure to NTA network programmes prior to the 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The study recommended that tv stations should increase the strength of nationwide programmes for effective voters’ education.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN THE 2015 AND 2019 GENERAL ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA AND THE ROLE OF SECURITY AGENCIES: PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE ELECTIONS

Democratic political system is one which makes the government responsive and accountable to the people. Election on the other hand is the fulcrum of democracy hence; election related violence cannot be discussed without the role of security agencies and various non-state actors in the elections. This is a prerequisite for maintenance of law and order that brings about stability and enhances national security. Nigerian democracy since inception has been a subject of controversy with periodic elections consistently marred with issues of violent crises and insecurity. The 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria were no different, the two elections recorded the height of ethno-religious tension in the history of Nigerian election as well as ethno-religious violence that threatened the indivisibility of the entire country. While the 2015 was relatively peaceful despite the violence tension it created in the pre-election campaigning, the 2019 elections were marred with violence. More so, the elections were held in the most insecure atmosphere with the Boko Haram conflict and the herders/farmers conflict going in the northeast and north central zones simultaneously. In addition, security during elections was a source of concern. The Police and other security agencies were often accused of partiality during electoral processes. The paper carries out a comparative analysis of electoral violence during 2015 and 2019 general elections. Drawing data from both primary and secondary sources such as in-depth interviews, key informant interviews (KII), questionnaires and extant literatures

‘I have opened the land for you’: pastoralist politics and election-related violence in Kenya’s arid north

ABSTRACT The shadow of election violence has hung over Kenyan politics since 2008, when post-election violence erupted across the country. These events paved the way for major national reforms, including the devolution of central government, designed to counteract tendencies of ethnic patronage and violence. Kenya’s subsequent election cycles have not seen the same explosion of nationwide violence, and therefore little has been written about election violence in Kenya in the post-devolution years. However, this article draws attention to the arid, pastoralist-dominated north, where there have in fact been significant episodes of violence that are election-related. Drawing on ethnographic research, it explores the case of Samburu, Isiolo and Laikipia counties during the 2017 and 2022 election cycles, when mass movements of armed pastoralists and herds forced their way, often violently, into targeted areas of land, resulting in widespread clashes, killings and displacement. The article investigates the endogenous elites and machinations within nomadic Samburu communities involved in and affected by this violence, using a ‘public authority lens’. It argues that ongoing governance changes in this region have created opportunities for political elites to mobilise territorial violence for strategic, political ends in advance of elections, including through a previously undocumented practice of “vote shipping”.

Introducing the Philippine Electoral Violence (PEV) data set: Uncovering trends, targets, and perpetrators of election‐related violence during the 2013–2019 elections

AbstractElection‐related violence (ERV) is a recurring concern in the Philippines—considered to be one of the most violent countries in Asia. National and midterm elections which happen every 3 years are the most violent. As such, a thorough analysis on the nature of ERVs in the country is necessary to address the causes facilitating electoral violence. While there have been several ERV studies in the Philippines after the post‐1986 democratization period, this article is the first that looks at electoral violence data at both the individual and aggregate levels. This study examines incidences of ERV in the Philippines from 2013 to 2019 by creating a novel incident‐level data set, the Philippine Electoral Violence data set, constructed from online media reports. A total of 394 incidents were found over the three election periods covered in the data set, which includes at least one incident in 65 out of the 81 provinces in the country.