Election Results Research Articles

Golkar Sidoarjo DPD's Strategy for PIP Scholarship Distribution Campaign

Background: Effective political communication strategies are crucial for enhancing public engagement. Specific Background: This study explores the qualitative communication strategies used by a local political party during the Indonesia Smart Program (PIP) scholarship distribution, contrasting it with quantitative approaches that focus on numerical data. Knowledge Gap: Existing literature lacks insights on how qualitative methods, particularly direct interviews, can inform community engagement and program visibility. Aims: The research aims to analyze DPD Golkar Sidoarjo's communication strategies using primary interviews and secondary campaign materials. Results: Findings show that the party successfully utilized various media to increase visibility and transparency of the PIP, leading to significant community involvement through initiatives like KIPK. Novelty: This study highlights how qualitative approaches can deepen understanding of political communication's impact on community perceptions. Implications: The increased public trust in DPD Golkar Sidoarjo indicates the effectiveness of strategic political communication in influencing electoral outcomes, revealing valuable insights into political engagement dynamics. Highlights : Emphasizes the significance of qualitative insights for understanding community perceptions. Highlights the effective use of media in enhancing program visibility and transparency. Demonstrates the link between strategic communication and increased public trust and electoral support. Keywords: political communication, qualitative research, Indonesia Smart Program, community engagement, DPD Golkar Sidoarjo

Implications of the 2024 Election Outcome for U.S. Health Policy

On the basis of 28 national opinion polls, the authors summarize Democrats’ and Republicans’ views on health policy issues and discuss the implications of the 2024 election outcome for U.S. health policy.

Against the Odds: Explaining Mainstream Montenegrin Parties Domination of Bosniak and Albanian Minority Representation in Postcommunist Montenegro

Abstract The Bosniak and Albanian minorities in postcommunist Montenegro have supported and been represented by mainstream Montenegrin parties more than by their ethnic parties. This stands in striking contrast to the situation in neighboring Serbia and North Macedonia where the Bosniak and Albanian minorities vote almost exclusively for their ethnic parties. The Montenegrin case stands out as deviant also when one considers a number of extant explanations, all of which would predict a different outcome. Montenegrin Bosniaks and Albanians constitute two native, sizeable and geographically concentrated minority groups inhabiting a country with an institutional framework and several special electoral arrangements favoring minority parties. Drawing on original data on Bosniak and Albanian legislators elected across 12 parliamentary elections in Montenegro (1990–2023), municipality and country-level parliamentary election results and 12 semi-structured elite interviews, I argue that what explains the deviance in the Montenegrin case is the peculiar nature of Montenegrin identity, specifically the fact that it does not pit the majority against minority, but rather it pits the Montenegrin and Serbian components of the Orthodox majority against each other and in such a context the non-Orthodox minorities become critical political allies of the Montenegrin bloc against the Serbian one.

Tweeting to be a constitution-writer in Chile: Social media activity, public discourse, and electoral outcomes during pandemic times

We examine the impact of social media activity and content on the electoral performance of 1,373 candidates who ran in the 2021 Constitutional election in Chile. In line with the two-step flow of communication hypothesis, estimates from binary and fractional response probit models reveal that candidates with an active Twitter/X account and higher user engagement metrics (i.e., retweets and likes per tweet) are more likely to be elected and secure a larger share of votes. Regarding the content disseminated on social media, the effect of emphasized subjects on electoral outcomes is topic-dependent. Specifically, candidates who focus their posts on sociopolitical issues improve their electoral performance, while tweeting about economics tends to reduce the likelihood of being elected as a constitution-writer in Chile. This could be attributed to the 2021 Constitutional election being part of an institutional response to a series of events, including widespread protests across the country and a strong public demand for profound changes to the Chilean status quo.

VOTES AND VALUATIONS: THE IMPACT OF LOK SABHA ELECTIONS ON STOCK MARKET

This paper investigates the impact of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections on the stock market, a relationship of significant interest to economists, investors, and policymakers. Given the pivotal role of the Lok Sabha in shaping India's economic policies and legislative landscape, the outcomes of these elections are expected to have substantial implications for market dynamics. Historical data analysis reveals that past elections have consistently led to increased market volatility and activity, reflecting investor sentiment towards political stability and economic policy continuity. This study employs a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches, including historical data analysis, event studies, and predictive modeling, to forecast potential market reactions. Key factors such as political stability, proposed economic reforms, global economic environment, and investor sentiment are examined to understand their influence on market behavior. The 2024 elections are especially significant as they occur during a period of post-pandemic economic recovery, technological advancements, and evolving geopolitical relations. By analyzing these factors, the paper aims to provide insights into how different election outcomes might affect various sectors, investment strategies, and overall market performance. The findings are intended to aid investors in navigating the election period, making informed decisions, and understanding the broader implications of political events on economic stability and growth. This comprehensive analysis contributes to the existing literature on political economy and market behavior, offering valuable perspectives for stakeholders involved in the Indian financial markets.

Voters distrust delayed election results, but a prebunking message inoculates against distrust.

Counting and certifying election results in the United States can take days and even weeks following election day. These delays are often linked to distrust in elections but does delay cause distrust? What can election officials do to counteract distrust if counting most ballots and announcing results cannot occur on election night? Using a preregistered survey experiment of nearly 10,000 Americans, this article shows that informing voters about longer-than-expected vote counting time induces a large, significant decrease in trust in the election. However, viewing a "prebunking" video in advance of being informed of the delay in results more than makes up for the delay-induced decrease in election trust. Our findings have two important implications. First, unexpected delays in calling elections induce distrust even without misinformation from third parties. Second, providing voters with information about vote counting and the legitimate reasons for delays increases trust and mitigates the distrust induced by delays.

Money in Politics: How Does It Affect Election Outcomes?

Money in Politics: How Does It Affect Election Outcomes?

Fluctuations and extreme events in the public attention on Italian legislative elections

The share of social media attention to political candidates was shown to be a good predictor of election outcomes in several studies. This attention to individual candidates fluctuates due to incoming daily news and sometimes reflects long-term trends. By analyzing Twitter data in the 2013 and 2022 election campaign we observe that, on short timescales, the dynamics can be effectively characterized by a mean-reverting diffusion process on a logarithmic scale. This implies that the response to news and the exchange of opinions on Twitter lead to attention fluctuations spanning orders of magnitudes. However, these fluctuations remain centered around certain average levels of popularity, which change slowly in contrast to the rapid daily and hourly variations driven by Twitter trends and news. In particular, on our 2013 data we are able to estimate the dominant timescale of fluctuations at around three hours. Finally, by considering the extreme data points in the tail of the attention variation distribution, we could identify critical events in the electoral campaign period and extract useful information from the flow of data.

Social trust and the winner-loser gap

The electoral winner-loser gap literature has shown sharp differences between citizens who vote for winning and losing options in key indicators of political support. In this article, we claim that the influence of election results can extend beyond the political domain and reach citizens’ level of social trust. Indeed, elections can reveal to citizens who voted for the winning option that their preferences are aligned with the majority opinion of society, while it signals the opposite to electoral losers. We hypothesize that this contrast will trigger a gap in the level of social trust between winners and losers, and that this gap will be larger among politically engaged voters relative to those more disinterested in political affairs. To contrast our hypotheses, we conducted two online panel surveys with a pre-post electoral design during two recent elections in Chile. Estimates from Two-way Fixed Effects regression models support our main theoretical expectations.

Algeria: Presidential Election Results

Algeria: Presidential Election Results

Migration policy as a factor influencing the USA presidential election

The article presents the transformation of US migration policy and analyzes its impact on the balance of power in the 2024 presidential election campaign. The 2024 election campaign in the US is characterized by significant differences between the major parties and their voters, as well as an emphasis on key economic and immigration issues that have divided American society. Mexico is the main labor donor to the US, and it is also a gateway for illegal migration from Latin America and Southeast Asia. Almost all the time of the existence of the United States, the immigration policy of the country shows that migration plays an important role in the development of American society. The problem of illegal migration has always existed and continues to have a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the country. The current U.S. immigration strategy combines continuity with restrictive measures, while seeking to adapt migration flows to the economic needs of the country. The article analyzes the impact of migration policy on the U.S. political landscape during the 2024 election campaign. Migration policy in the United States today is a tool for conducting political struggle and "settling scores". Illegal migrants from Latin American countries will have a particular impact on the upcoming elections, so a characteristic feature of the 2024 election campaign is a cross-party struggle for the Latin American electorate, coupled with tougher migration policies. The authors draw attention to the reasons for the transformation of the US migration system and give their forecast regarding the outcome of elections in the country under certain conditions.

Hybrid-Blockchain-Based Electronic Voting Machine System Embedded with Deepface, Sharding, and Post-Quantum Techniques

The integrity of democratic processes relies on secure and reliable election systems, yet achieving this reliability is challenging. This paper introduces the Post-Quantum Secured Multiparty Computed Hierarchical Authoritative Consensus Blockchain (PQMPCHAC-Bchain), a novel e-voting system designed to overcome the limitations of current Biometric Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) systems, which suffer from trust issues due to closed-source designs, cyber vulnerabilities, and regulatory concerns. Our primary objective is to develop a robust, scalable, and secure e-voting framework that enhances transparency and trust in electoral outcomes. Key contributions include integrating hierarchical authorization and access control with a novel consensus mechanism for proper electoral governance. We implement blockchain sharding techniques to improve scalability and propose a multiparty computed token generation system to prevent fraudulent voting and secure voter privacy. Post-quantum cryptography is incorporated to safeguard against potential quantum computing threats, future-proofing the system. Additionally, we enhance authentication through a deep learning-based face verification model for biometric validation. Our performance analysis indicates that the PQMPCHAC-Bchain e-voting system offers a promising solution for secure elections. By addressing critical aspects of security, scalability, and trust, our proposed system aims to advance the field of electronic voting. This research contributes to ongoing efforts to strengthen the integrity of democratic processes through technological innovation.

Design and implementation of an electronic voting system for optimal electoral process

Electronic voting is a tool for increasing the credibility and efficiency of elections in several democracies around the world. In Nigeria, many elections have conducted sub-optimally due to the manual methods employed in voting and transmission of election results. In such cases, electoral officials have been accused of colluding with politicians to alter election results while the results are being transmitted from polling units to results collation centres. To address this problem, this paper proposes and presents a framework for electronic voting and transmission of election results. The proposed system is designed and implemented using a C++-based Visual Studio Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and a MATLAB/Simulink application. This setup allowed for the simulation of the voting process, encryption of voting data, transmission of voting results and decryption of election results. The simulation-based results obtained for the proposed system was compared with that of the existing system. The results indicate that for sample sizes ranging from 2,000 to 7,000 voters, the proposed system accurately accredited an average of 85% of voters, compared to 73% for the existing system. Specifically, for 2,500, 4,000, 5,500, and 7,000 accredited voters, the existing system had 684, 1,095, 1,505, and 1,916 failed voters respectively. In comparison, there was a significant reduction in the number of failed voters for the proposed system and this stood at 364, 582, 801, and 1,019 respectively. Additionally, the quality of verified feedback for 3,000, 4,500, 6,000, and 7,000 accredited voters showed that the proposed system had quality scores of 0.362, 0.138, 0.019, and 0.000, compared to 0.549, 0.197, 0.024, and 0.001 for the existing system. In conclusion, the proposed system has proven to be highly effective, credible, secure, and transparent in safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process and it is therefore recommended for hardware implementation in subsequent general elections.

The General Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2022 – the Legal and Political Aspects

The article analyzes the results of the general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which took place in October 2022, as well as their consequences for the political situation in this country. Key aspects of electoral law were also discussed, with particular emphasis on provisions limiting human and civil rights on the basis of ethnicity, which is the result of the solutions adopted in the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995.

Impact of Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) on Voting Behavior of Women in District Sanghar

This paper, based on the findings of the research project sponsored by Sindh Higher Education Commission, attempts to study the impact of BISP on the voting behaviour of women in district Sanghar, Pakistan. Sanghar is one of the largest districts of Rural Sindh in terms of population and area, which is comprised of 6 talukas. The population of district is more than 2 million and around half of the population of district is female. There are mainly two large political parties in district Sanghar which secure most of the seats of national as well as provincial assemblies. However, after the launching of Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) in 2008, the results of elections have turned in favour of one party. In last general elections 2018 Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) bagged 6 out of 9 seats as compared to 0 seats out of 9 in 2002. Thus, the study has selected the Sanghar district as model to assess the impact of BISP on voting behavior. Mixed method research approach was employed to collect data for this study. Total of 1079 face-to-face structured questionnaires were administered and 12 focus group discussion (FGDs) were conducted in six talukas of the district. The results demonstrate major change in the voting behavior of voters in district Sanghar. The findings of the study suggest the significant impact of BISP on the voting behavior of women in Sanghar district.

Monkeys Predict US Elections.

How people vote often defies rational explanation. Physical traits sometimes sway voters more than policies do-but why? Here we show that rhesus macaques, who have no knowledge about political candidates or their policies, implicitly predict the outcomes of U.S. gubernatorial and senatorial elections based solely on visual features. Given a pair of candidate photos, monkeys spent more time looking at the loser than the winner, and this gaze bias predicted not only binary election outcomes but also the candidates' vote share. Analysis of facial features revealed candidates with more masculine faces were more likely to win an election, and vote share was a linear function of jaw prominence. Our findings endorse the idea that voters spontaneously respond to evolutionarily conserved visual cues to physical prowess and that voting behavior is shaped, in part, by ancestral adaptations shared with nonhuman primates.

Brilliant tragedy? Electoral effects of environmental protest cycle in autocracy

ABSTRACT When and how does an environmental protest cycle affect election outcomes under electoral authoritarianism? Drawing on the case of the Bashkortostan republic, a Russian ethnic region, I leverage the spatial proximity to the protest site to identify its effects on parliamentary elections. The environmental protest cycle peaked in Bashkortostan around the regional government’s decisions to extract minerals from shikhans – mountains composed of limestone. Employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, I show that precincts exposed to the environmental protest cycle experienced a significant drop in United Russia vote share, while voting for systemic opposition increased in the affected precincts. To explain the dynamics, I propose treating non-political protests, such as environmental ones, as an information revelation mechanism. The mechanism identified through a causal mediation analysis indicates that the environmental protest cycle conveys information on regional malperformance to voters. Their updated preferences, in turn, heavily undermine the electoral mobilizing capacity of local elites.

Верховний суд як суд першої інстанції щодо справ державної вагомості для України

The article examines the consideration by the Supreme Court as a court of first instance for the certain categories of cases defined by the Codex of Administrative Justice of Ukraine (disputes regarding the results of elections and referenda, inaction of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine regarding the implementation of the results of the All-Ukrainian referendum; acts, decisions, actions or inactions of the President of Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the High Council of Justice, High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine, the subjects of the appointment of judges of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine in the course of competitive selection, removal of a People’s Deputy of Ukraine from office), as well as in extrajudicial constitutional processes (removal of the President of Ukraine from office due to health or impeachment). The admissibility of such a court hearing by the Supreme Court was established in order to ensure the fastest professional just decision, considering the special significance of solving such cases for the state. The main point of the analysis is that the Supreme Court, which administers justice on the basis of the rule of law, is obliged to protect the status of the Ukrainian nation as the only source of power in Ukraine. Therefore, it has to protect the results of his expression of will in the implementation of a direct form of the democracy (the results of elections and referenda), as well as related to the representative mandate. Considering the issue of appeal of the acts, actions or inaction of some authorities, it is established that it concerns the bodies with the most responsible position in Ukraine, and therefore the resolution of such disputes is urgent for the functioning of the state. The role of the Supreme Court in extrajudicial constitutional processes in establishing the legal facts is important, but is not final in the results of such a process, because the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine is responsible for this.

From the Fringe to the front-stage. European immigration and the Far-Right vote: An IV approach

We use regional data spanning over 4500 electoral outcomes at NUTS3 level between 2000 and 2017 to assess the impact of immigration on Western European Far-Right voting. To deal with potential reverse causation, we use immigration in neighboring countries as an instrument for domestic immigration. The estimated effects of immigration are positive, significant and larger compared to those obtained by simple OLS and fixed effects regressions. Depending on the measure of immigration used, we find that a 1% increase in immigration stocks leads to a between 1.78% and 2.97% in Far-Right voting. Similar results are obtained using electoral outcomes and immigration shares at the NUTS2 level, where the effect of immigration is estimated between 3% and 5.32%. Our results are consistent with possible negative feedback from the Far-Right to immigration. Our estimated effects explain a large part of the observed rise in Far-Right in Western European countries that experienced high levels of immigration during the span of our sample.

Winners always cheat? Regional identity and the myth of a rigged 2022 Philippine presidential election

This article draws its analysis from the results of an assessment conducted in October 2022 of the May 2022 presidential election. The 2022 presidential election in the Philippines is an historical turning point not only for marking the return of the Marcos family to the country's highest office but also due to the initial claim of electoral fraud that raised concerns about the integrity of automated polling in the country. In the context of the May 2022 election, our findings do not identify any clear demographic pattern linked to a lack of confidence or skepticism regarding the credibility of the election results. Instead, compelling evidence indicates that the belief in a rigged election is limited to a specific subset of voters aligned with the geographical support base of a defeated presidential candidate. The findings contribute to nuancing electoral dynamics in the Philippines in a number of ways. First, they dispel the myth of an impaired election floated by media and other international watchdogs immediately after the election. Second, the suggest that as citizens navigate their democratic responsibilities, their regional identity becomes a lens through which the fairness, transparency, and legitimacy of the electoral system are ultimately contested.