Election Results Research Articles

The Stability of Party Power in Turkey after President Erdogan's Victory in the 2023 Elections

The present research aims to identify the impact of Erdogan's victory on the basic budgets in Turkey and its impact on the opposition parties and the strength of the opposition, as well as on the Turkish economy, as the economic factor played a significant and influential role in the results of the Turkish elections, which led to the rise of the Justice and Development Party with Erdogan's victory. This party has an effect on the political and democratic process in the country. Thus, the investigation includes two axes: the first, political parties in Turkey, and the second, the Turkish elections in 2023 AD.

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.

How elections shape perceptions of ideal leadership.

Individuals hold internal leadership representations, termed leadership prototypes. We examined how these prototypes changed in reaction to the 2020 U.S. presidential election. A sample of Republicans (N = 200), Democrats (N = 200), and individuals who identified with neither major party (N = 200), surveyed eight times between October 2020 and January 2021, and reported their perceptions of the characteristics of the ideal leader. Results from a regression discontinuity in time and repeated measurement analyses found that the election altered two dimensions of the average U.S. leadership prototype. We specifically find participants' perceptions of Tyranny and Masculinity to decrease, that is, shifts to more Biden-like and less Trump-like leadership prototypes. Other dimensions of the leadership prototype remained stable, that is, charisma, sensitivity, dedication, intelligence, and dynamism. Analyses examined two boundary conditions of the effect: political identification and the acceptance of the election result as legitimate. Only perceived legitimacy was found to moderate the effect with the shift in leadership prototypes being driven by individuals who accepted the result of the election as legitimate. Our findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of leadership prototypes in response to real-world events and more broadly how an election can shape psychological perceptions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Metamorphosis of Turkey’s political landscape: unveiling the evolving party system in the aftermath of the presidential system shift and the 2023 elections

ABSTRACT The May 2023 elections in Turkey—comprising both parliamentary and presidential races—represented a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. These elections provided a crucial evaluation of the hyper-presidential system instituted after the 2017 constitutional transition. This article delves into the impact of the 2023 electoral outcomes on Turkey’s party system within the context of Turkey’s transition to a presidential system. It examines the ramifications of institutional changes, such as the introduction of winner-takes-all dynamics and alliance laws, on party system dynamics. Our findings indicate substantial transformations in key aspects of the party system, including increased polarization, heightened fragmentation, enhanced volatility, and intensified personalization. Through empirical analysis, showcasing the evolving dynamics of these challenges within the Turkish party system and their consequences for both the party system’s structure and the broader political regime, we offer insights into potential future trajectories for Turkey’s political landscape.

New metrics for governance in the era of earth observation data: Monitoring violations after wildfires

Abstract This study uses Earth observation data to measure illegal activities and investigates possible relationships with local governments. We have collected satellite images, digital maps, and geospatial data for over a decade to detect potential illegal constructions in protected burned forest areas in Sardinia, Italy. We create a database of buildings erected in these protected areas and connect it to administrative data on local election results. First, we examine the climatic and geographical factors that contribute to wildfires. Our findings indicate that fires tend to spread more in places with higher altitudes and greater distances from urban centers. This highlights the challenges that local authorities face in monitoring and intervening in areas that are less accessible. Next, we analyze the relationship between mayoral turnover and constructions erected in protected burned forests to highlight how this phenomenon influences voters' preferences. We observe that citizens express their disapproval of these illegal activities through the ballot box. Violations in the years leading up to local elections increase the likelihood of a change in mayoral leadership within a municipality.

The Challenge of Forecasting the 2024 Presidential and House Elections: Economic Pessimism and Election Outcomes

The Challenge of Forecasting the 2024 Presidential and House Elections: Economic Pessimism and Election Outcomes

Enhancing predictive accuracy of electoral outcomes: A comparative study of dimension reduction techniques in linear regression models

The effectiveness of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis (FA) in enhancing the predictive accuracy and interpretability of linear regression models for electoral outcomes is examined in this study, with a focus on the Croatian presidential election. Challenges such as multicollinearity and model complexity were addressed through the application of PCA and FA to socio-demographic and political variables, resulting in their transformation into a simpler, more manageable form. Multicollinearity was significantly reduced by PCA, and model stability was improved. Deeper insights into voter behavior were provided by FA through the identification of latent variables. Improvements were noted; however, issues with homoscedasticity were identified, which affected the predictive reliability of the models. The optimized linear regression model, specifically designed to address homoscedasticity (LR2), was found to demonstrate superior performance in terms of predictive accuracy and stability when compared to models that utilized PCA and FA alone. The importance of maintaining homoscedasticity in regression models is underscored by the findings, and the potential of dimension reduction techniques to improve electoral predictions is highlighted. The integration of these techniques in forecasting models is advocated for, with the aim of assisting political analysts and policymakers. It is suggested that future research could explore the combination of these methods with other advanced modeling approaches to further enhance predictive capabilities.

Gender Stereotypes and Candidate Qualifications in Judicial Elections

A large literature documents the effects of gendered stereotyping on the outcomes of legislative and executive elections. Less attention has been paid to the effects of these stereotypes on judicial elections, a venue where candidates might encounter unique stereotypes. Further, existing research on judicial elections prioritizes one form of qualification—prior judicial experience—leaving unaddressed the effects of other professional experiences on voters’ choices in these contests. In this paper, we rely on a conjoint experiment to test the effects of candidate qualifications and gender stereotypes in U.S. state judicial elections. We find that, on average, women candidates are advantaged in judicial elections, though we find no evidence that citizens view women candidates as more qualified. Further, while voters do prefer candidates with prior judicial experience they also—contrary to the conventional wisdom—favor judges with prior political experience. Importantly, however, we observe minimal instances of gendered stereotyping in these elections. Our findings call for further research on the effects of gender in judicial elections.

A Geometric Model of Elections in Five Federal Democracies

Abstract In an analysis of 1,825 state or provincial election outcomes in five federal democracies the rate of decay of incumbency (K) serves to partition the distribution of the vote for the incumbent party, the party of the head of government, between those who win a subsequent term and those who do not. In conjunction with the mean and standard deviation of the distribution, the weighted mean of the vote in re-election and defeat is identified. The model’s predictions are generally within 2–3 percentage points of the actual outcome.

When you come at the king: Opposition coalitions and nearly stunning elections

AbstractOpposition coalitions under electoral authoritarianism have been associated with greater likelihood of opposition victory and democratization. I argue, however, that coalitions also entail significant downside risks with implications for longer term prospects for democracy. Where coalitions produce strong electoral outcomes but fail to force turnovers, regimes are left with both the incentive and capacity to repress and reconsolidate power. I show cross‐nationally that opposition coalitions are associated with stronger opposition performance overall, but that when oppositions fail to take power, exceptionally strong performance is associated with greater autocratization in the subsequent years, including increased repression and poorer electoral quality in future contests. Probing the case of Cambodia, I demonstrate how the very features that make opposition coalitions a useful tool in strengthening performance also invite new threats from regimes. I argue that this makes coalition formation a particularly risky proposition.

Forecasting migration movements using prediction markets

Migration forecasts are crucial for proactive immigration and integration management. While the demand for accurate migration forecasts continues to grow, the current state of migration forecasting is still unsatisfactory, because they tend to lack precision. We introduce an alternative method to forecast migration movements: prediction markets. While prediction markets are mainly unknown in migration studies, they are established in the political economy of forecasting election outcomes. For its application to a complex phenomenon in a more constrained information environment such as migration movements, we argue that prediction markets allow to balance complementarities of current qualitative and quantitative approaches if they provide solutions to avoid thin trading and integrate expert knowledge into the market. We apply the prediction market to forecast immigration in four West European countries in 2020 and find encouraging results. We discuss the strengths and limitations of prediction markets to migration forecasting, including ethical considerations, and guide its future application.

Election Voting Trend Prediction System

This paper presents the use of Bayesian networks and K-Nearest Neighbor algorithms for predicting election results. Our motivation stemmed from the complexities of the election data available, which spans over 120,000 voting locations across 36 states in Nigeria, and the requirement to develop a procedure that takes into consideration voter trends that are influenced by political parties seeking to win. The system architecture's translation was utilised, and the prototyping methodology was adopted. In order to realize the requirements, the system was designed and implemented using Java and MySQL in accordance with specifications. Since the outcome is positive, it can serve as a benchmark for further study in this field, particularly when it comes to using data mining tools to analyze election results.

Prediction of Canadian Federal Election Results Based on Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification

In democratic countries like Canada, elections provide eligible citizens (aged 18 or older) the opportunity to vote and elect their leader. Since different political parties have distinct ideologies, election outcomes have significant societal impacts, making election result predictions crucial. This study aims to predict whether the Liberal Party will maintain its victory in the 2025 Canadian federal election using a multilevel regression model combined with post-stratification. The data for this research comes from the 2021 Canadian Election Study (CES) and the General Social Survey (GSS), with the cleaned datasets including variables such as age, gender, education, and province. Through the constructed multilevel logistic regression model and post-stratification adjustments, the results show that approximately 26.63% of Canadian citizens will vote for the Liberal Party in the next Canadian federal election. This prediction aligns with the hypothesis that the Liberal Party will not win the upcoming federal election. However, some variables in the model are not statistically significant, and the data is somewhat outdated. Future research should consider incorporating more variables and updated data.

Resolution of Election Disputes for DPD Members Through Administrative Court Decisions Based on Law No. 7 of 2017 on General Elections (A Case Study of the DPD in West Sumatera Province)

This research aims to analyze the Jakarta Administrative Court Decision No. 600/G/SPPU/2023/PTUN.JKT related to the election dispute of DPD (Regional Representative Council) members in 2023, from the perspective of Law No. 7 of 2017 on General Elections and fiqh siyasah (Islamic political jurisprudence). The focus of the dispute is the alleged violations by the General Election Commission (KPU) in the process of establishing the permanent voter list and determining the election results. This study employs a normative approach with a case study to address how election disputes for DPD members are resolved through Administrative Court decisions. The analysis reveals that the Jakarta Administrative Court Decision has integrated principles of justice and transparency as outlined in fiqh siyasah, and complies with the legal provisions of Law No. 7 of 2017. However, the study also highlights some challenges in enforcing accountability and transparency by the election organizers. This decision has strategic implications for governance and strengthening democracy in Indonesia, particularly within the context of Islamic constitutional law.

Golkar Sidoarjo DPD's Strategy for PIP Scholarship Distribution Campaign

Background: Effective political communication strategies are crucial for enhancing public engagement. Specific Background: This study explores the qualitative communication strategies used by a local political party during the Indonesia Smart Program (PIP) scholarship distribution, contrasting it with quantitative approaches that focus on numerical data. Knowledge Gap: Existing literature lacks insights on how qualitative methods, particularly direct interviews, can inform community engagement and program visibility. Aims: The research aims to analyze DPD Golkar Sidoarjo's communication strategies using primary interviews and secondary campaign materials. Results: Findings show that the party successfully utilized various media to increase visibility and transparency of the PIP, leading to significant community involvement through initiatives like KIPK. Novelty: This study highlights how qualitative approaches can deepen understanding of political communication's impact on community perceptions. Implications: The increased public trust in DPD Golkar Sidoarjo indicates the effectiveness of strategic political communication in influencing electoral outcomes, revealing valuable insights into political engagement dynamics. Highlights : Emphasizes the significance of qualitative insights for understanding community perceptions. Highlights the effective use of media in enhancing program visibility and transparency. Demonstrates the link between strategic communication and increased public trust and electoral support. Keywords: political communication, qualitative research, Indonesia Smart Program, community engagement, DPD Golkar Sidoarjo

Implications of the 2024 Election Outcome for U.S. Health Policy

On the basis of 28 national opinion polls, the authors summarize Democrats’ and Republicans’ views on health policy issues and discuss the implications of the 2024 election outcome for U.S. health policy.

Against the Odds: Explaining Mainstream Montenegrin Parties Domination of Bosniak and Albanian Minority Representation in Postcommunist Montenegro

Abstract The Bosniak and Albanian minorities in postcommunist Montenegro have supported and been represented by mainstream Montenegrin parties more than by their ethnic parties. This stands in striking contrast to the situation in neighboring Serbia and North Macedonia where the Bosniak and Albanian minorities vote almost exclusively for their ethnic parties. The Montenegrin case stands out as deviant also when one considers a number of extant explanations, all of which would predict a different outcome. Montenegrin Bosniaks and Albanians constitute two native, sizeable and geographically concentrated minority groups inhabiting a country with an institutional framework and several special electoral arrangements favoring minority parties. Drawing on original data on Bosniak and Albanian legislators elected across 12 parliamentary elections in Montenegro (1990–2023), municipality and country-level parliamentary election results and 12 semi-structured elite interviews, I argue that what explains the deviance in the Montenegrin case is the peculiar nature of Montenegrin identity, specifically the fact that it does not pit the majority against minority, but rather it pits the Montenegrin and Serbian components of the Orthodox majority against each other and in such a context the non-Orthodox minorities become critical political allies of the Montenegrin bloc against the Serbian one.

Tweeting to be a constitution-writer in Chile: Social media activity, public discourse, and electoral outcomes during pandemic times

We examine the impact of social media activity and content on the electoral performance of 1,373 candidates who ran in the 2021 Constitutional election in Chile. In line with the two-step flow of communication hypothesis, estimates from binary and fractional response probit models reveal that candidates with an active Twitter/X account and higher user engagement metrics (i.e., retweets and likes per tweet) are more likely to be elected and secure a larger share of votes. Regarding the content disseminated on social media, the effect of emphasized subjects on electoral outcomes is topic-dependent. Specifically, candidates who focus their posts on sociopolitical issues improve their electoral performance, while tweeting about economics tends to reduce the likelihood of being elected as a constitution-writer in Chile. This could be attributed to the 2021 Constitutional election being part of an institutional response to a series of events, including widespread protests across the country and a strong public demand for profound changes to the Chilean status quo.

VOTES AND VALUATIONS: THE IMPACT OF LOK SABHA ELECTIONS ON STOCK MARKET

This paper investigates the impact of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections on the stock market, a relationship of significant interest to economists, investors, and policymakers. Given the pivotal role of the Lok Sabha in shaping India's economic policies and legislative landscape, the outcomes of these elections are expected to have substantial implications for market dynamics. Historical data analysis reveals that past elections have consistently led to increased market volatility and activity, reflecting investor sentiment towards political stability and economic policy continuity. This study employs a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches, including historical data analysis, event studies, and predictive modeling, to forecast potential market reactions. Key factors such as political stability, proposed economic reforms, global economic environment, and investor sentiment are examined to understand their influence on market behavior. The 2024 elections are especially significant as they occur during a period of post-pandemic economic recovery, technological advancements, and evolving geopolitical relations. By analyzing these factors, the paper aims to provide insights into how different election outcomes might affect various sectors, investment strategies, and overall market performance. The findings are intended to aid investors in navigating the election period, making informed decisions, and understanding the broader implications of political events on economic stability and growth. This comprehensive analysis contributes to the existing literature on political economy and market behavior, offering valuable perspectives for stakeholders involved in the Indian financial markets.

Voters distrust delayed election results, but a prebunking message inoculates against distrust.

Counting and certifying election results in the United States can take days and even weeks following election day. These delays are often linked to distrust in elections but does delay cause distrust? What can election officials do to counteract distrust if counting most ballots and announcing results cannot occur on election night? Using a preregistered survey experiment of nearly 10,000 Americans, this article shows that informing voters about longer-than-expected vote counting time induces a large, significant decrease in trust in the election. However, viewing a "prebunking" video in advance of being informed of the delay in results more than makes up for the delay-induced decrease in election trust. Our findings have two important implications. First, unexpected delays in calling elections induce distrust even without misinformation from third parties. Second, providing voters with information about vote counting and the legitimate reasons for delays increases trust and mitigates the distrust induced by delays.