Electoral Races Research Articles

South Africa – 2024: Political Parties’ Activities Ahead of Elections

The article briefly examines the performance of the main South African political parties such as the African National Congress, the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters on the eve of the general elections in 2024. To assess the situation, the data from think-tanks and NGO is also used. This paper highlights some issues that convey the complexity of the internal environment in the run-up to the event, such as the emergence of the Multi-Party Charter and other political players. Despite the challenges, the African National Congress continues to be the only party with “moral baggage” for voters from all population groups. In the emerging electoral race, it is interesting to observe how the “new” and “old” political forces strategize to maximize their votes from different communities in South Africa, especially among the “Coloured” community. This piece describes the emergence of new political organizations that are aimed at mobilising voters from the “Coloured” community, first and foremost in the Western Cape Province.

Exogenous Shocks and Party System Development: What is the Effect on New Party Entry?

ABSTRACT Since 2020, the world has been officially battling a COVID-19 pandemic. Even countries with established crisis management plans and years of experience in handling political and economic crises, have been shaken. In the midst of the pandemic’s rampant effects, how politicians handle the crisis is of crucial importance to the preservation, development, and protection of nations in the future. Who is in power determines not only the stability, but the political course of countries. Hence, what happens to the party system as a result of an exogenous shock is a question we need to answer. Importantly, we have little evidence on how the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic affected party competition. Building on the party systems literature, we examine the effect of the pandemic on electoral volatility, party system size, and the number of new party contestants. We hypothesise that, in countries where the incumbent government handles the crisis less effectively, electoral volatility tends to be higher, party system size tends to be larger, and more new parties tend to enter the electoral race. Drawing on evidence from national parliamentary elections held by electoral democracies from March 2020 to April 2022, the empirical results support our hypothesis.

The heterogeneous role of party affiliation in the runner‐up effect

SummaryA recent finding establishes that second‐place candidates perform substantially better over third‐place candidates in future electoral races. We show that this estimated effect masks substantial heterogeneity with respect to the party affiliation of the candidates. Only runner‐ups without a major party backing in election have significant prospects over the third‐place candidates in election , in terms of either recontesting or winning. Our finding suggests that political parties and voters, while strategically coordinating on the runner‐ups in election , also take into account the party backing as a potential signal of their intrinsic quality.

The election campaign for parliament in the age of the Internet

AbstractThis study examines whether the use of Internet‐based communication technologies during election campaigns helps candidates to be elected to parliament and improves their perception of being able to win national elections. Using data from the 2013 Italian Candidate Survey, estimation results show that the use of a personal website and Twitter during the electoral race significantly improves candidates' perceptions of winning nationwide election and their likelihood of being elected to parliamentary office.

Influence of Political Marketing on Voting Decision and Voter Behavior

Political campaigning, a part of every electoral system, employs a range of communication strategies, including political marketing. In India, political marketing takes up a significant amount of campaign money compared to other strategies, and it is divided among multiple political parties. That being said, the attempts to utilize intensive advertising to educate the people and develop favourable action inclinations raise problems about the role of political marketing in India, where caste, creed, religion, and regional issues play a larger part in electoral races. The growing issue arises when advertising costs soar to astronomical proportions, sometimes even surpassing the annual budgets of major FMCG companies. Investigating whether political marketing is appropriate in the Indian context is the goal of this study. In terms of voting behaviour, the study investigates how individuals believe that political marketing affects their decision-making, attitude toward voting, and search and assessment of information.

Сравнительный анализ итогов выборов в региональные парламенты Республики Бурятия и Забайкальского края в 2023 г.

The article provides a comparative analysis of the main results of the elections to the regional parliaments of the Republic of Buryatia and the Transbaikal Region. The conducted analysis actualizes the study. The object of the study is the regional election campaign for the election of deputies of the regional legislative authorities of the Republic of Buryatia and the Transbaikal Region. The purpose of the study is a comparative analysis of the course and results of elections to regional parliaments, identification of common and distinct features and peculiarities. In accordance with the set goal, the tasks are defined: to identify the main features of the indicators for the nomination of candidates for the post of deputies of regional legislative bodies in the Republic of Buryatia and the Transbaikal Region; to determine the main features of the election campaign in the Republic of Buryatia and the Transbaikal Region. The methodological basis of the research is the institutional approach. As the authors note, there have been quite significant changes compared to the 2022 elections. Firstly, the composition of participants in the electoral competition has changed, in particular, not only the share of non-party nominees has decreased, but also the number of candidates from non-systemic political parties. Secondly, there has been a consolidation of society, as a result of which the positions of the “party of power” strengthened and the possibilities of minority parties weakened. This has also affected the governance of the parliament, which has become more “obedient”. At the same time, each region has its own characteristics. In Buryatia, compared with the Transbaikal Region, a much smaller number of political parties participated in the electoral race and the possibilities of the “party of power” are somewhat higher. At the same time, the New People party joined the parliament in the parliamentary elections in Buryatia, but not in Transbaikalia. These and other circumstances allow us to speak about the beginning of a new stage in the development of political parties, where the positions of the “party of power” are once again strengthening and opposition forces are weakening. It is concluded that the role of regional branches of political parties in the political space of Russian regions is increasingly being minimized.

Электоральная активность молодёжи в качестве кандидатов в депутаты Законодательного собрания Новосибирской области 2005-2020 гг

The object of the study was the Novosibirsk Region, which has the status of a border area, characterized by a high level of economic development and political competition among other Siberian regions. The study analyzed information about young candidates for deputies to the Legislative Assembly of the Novosibirsk Region, who participated in election campaigns in the period 2005-2020. A young candidate is a person under the age of 35 having the passive voting right. At the present stage, the majority of Russian researchers acknowledge the political passivity of young people. The analysis of the data posted on the official website of the Electoral Commission of the Novosibirsk Region allows to draw the following conclusions: the number of candidates, including young ones, nominated by political parties is growing; the number of young self-nominated candidates is decreasing with each electoral cycle. This fact may be explained by difficulties of signature collection process for non-partisan candidates. It is at this stage that a significant number of candidates drop out of the electoral race. At the same time, the number of young people elected to deputies over the course of four electoral cycles has consistently been 7-9 people from different political parties (in single-mandate constituencies and on party lists). Meanwhile, the number of vacant deputy mandates decreased from 98 to 76. Over the course of four electoral cycles, the LDPR has attracted the greatest number of young people as candidates for deputies in single-mandate constituencies and party lists. The United Russia party has the smallest percentage of young candidates in its ranks. Such a personnel policy of the ruling party is connected with the presence of a great number of well-known and trusted candidates. Other parties are experiencing a shortage of personnel and during the election campaign they run young candidates. Thus, young people have a real opportunity to be elected from different parties (the ruling party, parliamentary opposition parties).

U.S. Public Health Transformation

The article is dedicated to the transformation of U.S. public health. The author examines the key features of market mechanisms in the industry that determine the inevitability of government regulation on the sphere. The author conceptually analyses the main institutions of the US national health care model, their main characteristics and features. The main stages of the evolution of public health care in the USA are analyzed and identified. Created to address economic, social and demographic problems that affect the health of the population, it has significantly expanded its mandate in the provision medical services and today is formally subordinated to the task of providing affordable insurance and medical care. However, the issue remains a hotly contested political battle, and the outcome of the election race could change the intended trajectory of development.

Seeing Red: Menstrual Art and Political Portraiture in the Trump Era

Summary In the middle of the 2015 United States presidential election race, artist Sarah Levy made a portrait of candidate Donald Trump with her menstrual blood. The work referenced Trump’s comments about menstruation during a conversation with journalist Meghan Kelly, in which he said that she had ‘blood coming out of her wherever’. While much discussed in the media, the portrait has not received the critical art historical attention it deserves. This paper considers the artistic, cultural, political and aesthetic inspiration of the creation of the menstrual artwork ‘Whatever’ (Bloody Trump), the techniques and materiality of the portrait, and its subsequent reception in public, art institutional and media discourse. Drawing on interviews with the artist and critical visual analysis in the tradition of feminist art history, this paper argues that ‘Whatever’ (Bloody Trump) should be understood as an important artwork that aesthetically interprets and recalls the white supremacist politics and strong menstrual taboos of the Trump era.

The return of silent elections: democracy, uncontested elections and citizen participation in Czechia

ABSTRACT Even when robust competition becomes institutionalized for national elections in democracies, this is no guarantee that elections to subnational governments will be equally competitive there. This article documents a recent disconcerting worldwide return of “silent elections'' - electoral races in which citizens are unable to choose among political alternatives and their vote makes no difference to the outcome. Holding such uncontested elections clashes simultaneously with the dual dimensions of democratic government: contestation and inclusiveness. Eliminating any contestation whatsoever not only skews democratic representation but is also expected to have a devastating effect on citizen participation. Leveraging a large dataset of 6,254 Czech municipalities in seven municipal elections between 1998 and 2022, the main contributions of this article are assessing the extent of the problem of silent elections over time, understanding its root causes, estimating its effect on turnout and exploring what mechanisms drive the nexus between uncontested elections and voter participation. The steady rise in the proportion of uncontested races (28% of all municipalities by 2022) as well as their staggering and increasing estimated effect on turnout (17 points relative to contested) point towards a thus far unnoticed deficit of local democracy.

House Republicans were rewarded for supporting Donald Trump’s ‘stop the steal’ efforts

In early 2021, members of Congress cast a series of high-profile roll call votes forcing them to choose between condoning or opposing Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Substantial majorities of House Republicans supported Trump, first by opposing the certification of electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6th, then by opposing the president's impeachment for inciting the attack on the US Capitol, and then by opposing a bill that would have created a national commission to investigate the events of January 6th. We examine whether the House Republicans who voted to support Trump in 2021 were rewarded or punished in the 2022 congressional midterm elections. We find no evidence that members who supported Trump did better or worse in contested general election races. However, Trump supporters were less likely to lose primary elections, more likely to run unopposed in the general election, more likely to run for higher office, and less likely to retire from politics. Overall, there seem to have been no significant political costs and some significant rewards in 2022 for House Republicans who supported Trump's undemocratic behavior.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL ELECTIONS IN SLOVAKIA IN 2022: THE IMPACT ON THE INTER-PARTY BALANCE AND STRUCTURING OF THE POLITICAL SPACE

The article analyzes local and regional elections in Slovakia in the context of identifying and systematizing the changes and trends in the political-party balance and structuring of the political space in this country. The author identifies the role of party blocs/coalitions, as well as the specifics of party representation in the councils/representative bodies of self-governing regions of Slovakia. The combinations of party blocs/coalitions of political parties participating in 2022 local and regional elections in Slovakia are also studied. The author states that the electoral choice of the Slovakian population remains quite personalized, since the tendency to personify the images of political parties is clearly preserved. Given this, the relationship between the electoral support of separate political parties in the analyzed election campaign is traced in accordance with their parliamentary or non-parliamentary positions. The study characterizes the results of the main participants of the election races in the regional dimension, as well as the role of local or subnational party projects. The researcher traces the structuring of the party space in Slovakia based on the regional differences of various regions of Slovakia (especially along the «west-east» line). In addition, the parameters of the ideological positioning of political parties, as well as the peculiarities of the representation of separate ethnic groups at local level are determined. It is revealed that (overcoming the threshold of inclusion and representation) Roma parties have become a political institution that represents the interests of their ethnic group on a par with «Hungarian» parties, which have been representing the interests of the Hungarian minority in Slovakia for a long time. Finally, particular attention is paid to the division of the participants of local and regional elections into «pro-Ukrainian» and «pro-Russian» ones, in particular in accordance with the newest spectrum of party-political structuring.

Face-to-face: Three facial features that may turn the scale in close electoral races

When voters in political elections intend to vote for a candidate who represents their political interests, they cannot avoid being influenced by the visual appearance of the candidates. In fact, many political campaigns are dominated by billboard advertising that mainly focuses on politicians' face portraits. While extant research already showed that a candidate's visual appearance has an impact on electoral outcomes, the present research goes a step further and investigates which specific facial features increase or decrease a politician's likelihood of winning an election. Evaluating 17 facial features, we identified mouth width, the ratio of eye height/width, and eyebrow height as relevant predictors of electoral success. In particular, we find across a correlative study, an experimental study, and an analysis of German Federal Elections that a wide mouth and large eyes that extend vertically have a robust and coherent influence on the likelihood of getting votes. Thin eyebrows increase the likelihood of getting votes in our hypothetical voting scenarios but not in the analysis of real election data. Furthermore, we show that the effects of the mouth and the eyes are statistically mediated by perceived trustworthiness and perceived dominance. In terms of real-life relevance, our analysis suggests that these three facial features can make the difference in close races.

Has the electoral college grown more disproportional? An analysis of election results, 1876–2020

AbstractEspecially following the 2000 and the 2016 presidential elections, some authors have denounced the legitimacy of the Electoral College as a presidential selection method. It is alleged that the college is not representative of the electorate as a whole and tends to favor one specific political party. In this article, we compare the popular vote with the composition of the Electoral College for every presidential contest since 1876 (n = 37 elections). We confirm that the college is indeed disproportional as it provides a major bonus to the winning candidate. Although this disproportionality has become slightly stronger during the 1876–2020 period, it does not specifically benefit one political party. Measured at the level of the states, there is no substantial increase in bias with regard to geographic representation. However, to the extent that electoral races become tighter, as was the case in the last quarter of the 19th century, the risk that results fall within a margin of statistical error becomes larger. This suggests that the current controversy finds its source less in the electoral rules and more in the situational and highly competitive balance of party competition.Related ArticlesArdoin, Phillip J., and Bryan M. Parsons. 2007. “Partisan Bias in the Electoral College: Cheap States and Wasted Votes.”Politics & Policy35(2): 342–64.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2007.00063.x.Crow, Deserai, and Laura Wolton. 2020. “Talking Policy in Congressional Campaigns: Construction of Policy Narratives in Electoral Politics.”Politics & Policy48(4): 658–99.https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12369.McKenzie, Mark. 2009. “Attitudes toward Electoral College Reform: Understanding Opinion Formation on Complicated Public Policy Issues.”Politics & Policy37(2): 265–88.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00172.x.

Does candidates’ media exposure affect vote shares? Evidence from Pope breaking news

I study the impact of politicians’ media exposure in campaign on their vote share, exploiting an exogenous change in coverage during the Italian 2013 electoral race. Right before the election, the Pope Benedict XVI suddenly resigned and broadcast coverage of politics markedly dropped. Only five days of lower visibility of the right-wing leader and TV tycoon Berlusconi (-26 percentage points) caused a 2 percentage points dip in his vote share, and lead to his defeat by 0.4 percentage points. Following the TV coverage disruption, a part of Berlusconi’s electorate resorted to Internet for political news, and later favored a new party with Internet-centred propaganda.

Nomination rules and the calculus of mobilization: Theory and evidence from Mexico

Does party organization shape candidates’ electoral mobilization efforts? I develop a novel theoretical account linking candidate selection rules to electoral mobilization. Nomination rules that require aspiring candidates to compete in electoral races, such as primary elections, create incentives for them to make considerable investments in order to win the party’s nomination. Using a decision-theoretic model, I show how these initial investments at the nomination stage shape the candidates’ mobilization expenditures in the general election. The main theoretical result establishes that primaries increase candidates’ mobilization efforts only when the general election is not expected to be competitive; when a close race is expected, candidates mobilize at the same rates regardless of how they were nominated. Analysis of an original dataset on candidate selection and electoral mobilization in Mexico provides strong support for the theory.

Who promotes gender-sensitive policies?

We study whether female-headed local governments in Spain are more likely to engage in gender sensitive policies such as long-term care support, pre-schooling, or work and family-life balancing services. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design estimated on the set of mixed electoral races, we find no evidence of female mayors being more likely to implement these policies at the local level. We do find evidence of differences between parties in the probability of implementing these policies, suggesting that the gender of the politician is less important than their partisan or ideological position when it comes to these policy levers. We interpret these results through a model of political selection in which strong parties can impose their agendas on candidates despite primitive differences in policy preferences across genders.

Persistence of incumbents and female access to political positions

This article studies whether the incumbent advantage for reelection reduces female access to political positions. I use a regression discontinuity exploiting close electoral races in French municipalities to randomize the eligibility of incumbent mayors for reappointment. After a male incumbent, I show that incumbency largely reduces the stock of places where women have historically been appointed mayor by about 24%. After a female incumbent, I find that there are fewer women appointed mayor than after a male one. I investigate the mechanisms and argue that this effect is consistent with a backlash or stereotype threat effect penalizing women after a female incumbent.

Neoconservative strategies, gender and family in the 2022 electoral race

Resumo: O Brasil tem enfrentado um processo de intensificação do neoconservadorismo no período recente com ataques a discussões e políticas que visam o combate às desigualdades de gênero, assim como uma ampliação da mobilização religiosa no espaço político. Em 2022, a disputa eleitoral se polarizou entre o atual presidente, Jair Bolsonaro, e o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Dois aspectos chamam a atenção: a rejeição das mulheres a Bolsonaro e a disputa dos eleitores evangélicos. A partir da análise dos programas eleitorais veiculados nas emissoras de canal aberto de televisão, esse artigo pretende observar como as propagandas eleitorais de Bolsonaro e Lula no segundo turno mobilizam argumentos em torno de questões de gênero, família e religiosidades, à luz das perspectivas críticas feministas.

The weaponisation of everything: a field guide to the new way of war

An entire International Relations (IR) generation has been taught that globalization created an innate interdependence between states, and that this interdependence kept war at bay. In many ways, Mark Galeotti reminds us that the pressures and tensions, which have for centuries led to war, did not evaporate. In The weaponisation of everything, Galeotti presents a field guide to an overlooked war zone: the interdependence of states. Given the litany of publications pontificating about grey zones and the blurring of lines between war and peace, the author seeks to shift the debate entirely away from processes and implications of transitions from peace to war. Instead, Galeotti argues that activities beneath the threshold of war are but permanent and perennial aspects of the international system. The book is divided in three sections, beginning with a survey of lessons from past wars and conflicts in which levers of power have been ‘weaponized’ throughout history. In light of the Ukraine–Russia war and the utilization of information warfare, Galeotti argues this is merely the renaissance of information weaponization. The author weaves tales of historical uses of disinformation to prove this point, including George Washington's efforts in 1775 to inject rumours of the ‘poor morale of the continental army, lulling British Hessian forces into a false complacency’ (p. 165). Today, we simply have more opportunities and methods to deploy disinformation. Galeotti's next section draws out alternative weaponization processes and examples from the contemporary strategic environment, such as international business, economic systems and transnational crime. The author wades into the 2016 US presidential election, given Russia's suspected role in President Donald Trump's victory. True to the advent of Galeotti's ‘weaponization of everything’, expert and public opinion on the evolution of the 2016 electoral race point to a substantial information warfare operation led by the Kremlin.