Persistence of incumbents and female access to political positions

Abstract

This article studies whether the incumbent advantage for reelection reduces female access to political positions. I use a regression discontinuity exploiting close electoral races in French municipalities to randomize the eligibility of incumbent mayors for reappointment. After a male incumbent, I show that incumbency largely reduces the stock of places where women have historically been appointed mayor by about 24%. After a female incumbent, I find that there are fewer women appointed mayor than after a male one. I investigate the mechanisms and argue that this effect is consistent with a backlash or stereotype threat effect penalizing women after a female incumbent.