Mayoral Election Research Articles

A Logical Model for Predicting Minority Representation: Application to Redistricting and Voting Rights Cases

Understanding when and why minority candidates emerge and win in particular districts entails critical implications for redistricting and the Voting Rights Act. I introduce a quantitatively predictive logical model of minority candidate emergence and electoral success—a mathematical formula based on deductive logic that can logically explain and accurately predict the exact probability at which minority candidates run for office and win in given districts. I show that the logical model can predict about 90% of minority candidate emergence and 95% of electoral success by leveraging unique data of mayoral elections in Louisiana from 1986 to 2016 and state legislative general elections in 36 states in 2012 and 2014. I demonstrate that the logical model can be used to answer many important questions about minority representation in redistricting and voting rights cases. All applications of the model can be easily implemented via an open-source software logical.

Politics of the Nobility: The Study of Growing Capital Andi in the Mayor`s Election of Palopo 2013-2018

The purpose of this research is to find out what causes the weakening of the capital of Andi's nobility in Palopo City in the selection of candidates for mayor and what is the role of Andi's nobility in political contestation. This type of research is descriptive qualitative. The results showed that the capital owned by Andi's aristocracy in Palopo City was. First, the social capital built by Andi's nobility had not been carried out in a structured way from relations with the general public, community leaders, with community organizations, to officials in the bureaucracy and most importantly, Political parties. Second, economic capital is an important thing that used in the Mayor Election contestation in the City of Palopo, Bangsawan Andi figure who escaped as a candidate for mayor does not yet have sufficient capital in terms of funds. Third, the cultural capital owned by Bangsawan Andi, who escaped as a candidate for mayor, still lacked a high bargaining value in political contestation in Palopo City. Fourth, the Symbolic Capital is a capital that sufficiently calculated in the mayor election dispute in Palopo City, namely the title of nobility obtained from the blood of the descendants of the Luwu kings, only it must be accompanied by other capital to elected in political contestation.

A political-economy perspective on mayoral elections and urban crime

We provide a political-economy analysis of crime prevention in an arbitrary city in the United States. City residents (voters) elect mayors (politicians) and elected mayors determine the resources to be allocated to crime prevention. Between the two time periods, there is an election. Politicians are either honest or dishonest. The marginal cost of public monies ψ measures how efficiently an elected mayor converts tax receipts into crime prevention. Voters have identical per period utility functions. We ascertain the equilibrium outcome and per period voter well-being. Second, we show that an increase in ψ reduces the equilibrium allocation of resources to crime prevention and voter well-being. Third, a dishonest politician can delay the revelation of his dishonesty. A critical value of ψ,ψ∗, exists such that a dishonest incumbent separates and loses the election if and only if ψ>ψ∗ and he pools and is re-elected otherwise. Finally, we note that an increase in ψ can raise voter well-being when politicians are more likely to be dishonest.

Strategic voting revisited: the case of the 2018 Taipei City mayoral election

AbstractIn this study, we examine whether strategic voting – in which a voter seeks to maximize the expected payoff from casting a ballot – occurred among late voters in the 2018 Taipei City mayoral election. This multi-candidate mayoral contest was noteworthy because ballot-counting started before all the votes had been cast, with preliminary results being leaked to the media. Theoretically, having access to real-time updates of voting figures could have influenced the decision of voters who were still in line waiting to cast their ballots. Analysis and reconstruction of aggregate polling data, however, demonstrate that there was very little (if any) strategic voting among these late voters on election day, even if they had information that might have induced them to vote strategically.

Local-Level Democratic Backsliding? The Consolidation of Aspiring Dominant-Party Regimes in Hungary and Poland

AbstractAspiring dominant-party regimes often institute major institutional and political reforms at the national level to ensure they retain control. However, subnational politics is an important, under-studied, component of regime consolidation. This study uses mayoral races in Hungary and Poland from 2006 to 2018 to examine two factors that may inhibit dominant-party regime consolidation in local politics: the use of two-round, i.e. runoff, electoral systems and strategic coordination among opposition parties. While we find little evidence that strategic coordination can lead to widespread opposition success in single-round systems, we do find that increasing the number of candidates decreases the likelihood of the nationally dominant party winning in the first round while not affecting the second round. As such, two-round mayoral elections may be an important buffer to dominant-party regime consolidation and may provide a training ground for the future opposition.

PEMBUKTIAN TINDAK PIDANA POLITIK UANG DALAM PEMILIHAN KEPALA DAERAH TAHUN 2019

In almost every election event in Indonesia, it can be seen that there are many violations that often characterize it, the criminal behavior of money politics, for example, is always repeated even though the threat of criminal punishment lurks the perpetrators and recipients. This situation makes it difficult to enforce the law by the Panwaslu, the Police, and the Prosecutor's Office, which are members of the Gakkumdu center, this is because there are obstacles at the time of legal proof from the interpretation and perspective of the meaning of money politics itself which is considered to still have different views/perspectives. . The application of the law and the handling of violations by the Panwaskab against money politics based on formal offenses is a criminal act that has been committed and the act matches the formulation in Article 187 A paragraph (1) of Law Number 10 of 2016 concerning the Election of Governors, Regents and Mayors which requires an act that is prohibited or required to be completed without mentioning the consequences or prohibited by law is the act.
 Keywords: Crime, Money Politics, Pilkada.

Failed Kinship Politics: Three Cases of the 2020 Regional-Head Election in Jambi

The 2020 Regional Head Election continued to show the presence of Kinship Politics at the regional level, including in Jambi. The incumbents encouraged their family members to run as candidates in the election for Governor and Deputy Governor of Jambi, Regent of Batang Hari, and Mayor of Sungai Penuh. Surprisingly, Kinship politics failed to win in all three locations. This study aimed to analyze the failure of Kinship politics in the 2020 Regional Head Election in Jambi (namely Yuninta Asmara-Muhammad Mahdan in Batang Hari Regency, Cek Endra-Ratu Munawaroh in the election for the Governor of Jambi, and Fikar Azami-Yos Andrino in the election for Mayor of Sungai Penuh) through an independent observation from November 2020 to January 2021, as well as documentation of data and news related to the 2020 Regional Head Election in Jambi. The failure of the three candidate pairs was due to: first, the lack of public trust in the incumbent's family; second, the lack of campaign fund contributions; third, lack of promotions for the candidate pairs on social media; fourth, the lack of political communication between candidates, political parties, and constituents, while the alternative candidates optimally, effectively and efficiently managed the campaign team, campaign logistics, and their constituents; five, the alternative candidates' track records showed better credibility and capability; and six, better electability and acceptability of the alternative candidates. This study concluded that Jambi could be an example of minimizing the dominance of Kinship politics by using an alternative candidate who has a solid team, good online campaign management, and effective logistics management. Jambi can be a barometer of the rise of real democracy.

CAPITAL COMPARISON OF CANDIDATES FROM POLITICAL DYNASTIES IN THE 2020 MAYORAL AND DEPUTY MAYORAL ELECTION IN INDONESIA

This study was conducted to compare the capital owned by candidates from political dynasties in the 2020 mayor and deputy mayor elections and make a generalization about which capital turns out to be the most influential in the election. The study is a comparative research which uses the Large-N, a method that compares cases in a broad area and a large number, with 28 candidates from political dynasties as the objects. The conclusion of this study is that the dynasties owned by candidates do not seem to mean much in the 2020 mayor and deputy mayor elections. The victories of candidates from political dynasties were influenced by various combinations of capital. No capital is more influential than other capital because ownership of capital will not mean much if the candidate does not have a good enough strategy in using that capital to attract voters.

The influence of perceived positive and negative effects of election polling news on voters’ behaviors through pride and anxiety

ABSTRACT We investigate how perceived positive and negative effects of polling news are related to political behaviors through emotions. The results of two web-based surveys before and after the 2018 mayoral election in Seoul, South Korea, demonstrate that the perceived positive effect of polling news is indirectly linked to reinforcement of support through pride particularly for supporters of winning candidate. The perceived negative effect of polling news is positively associated with campaign discourse engagement through anxiety. These results suggest that voters’ perceptions about the effects of polling news may have an actual influence on their political behaviors through emotions, and how voters feel about the usefulness of polling news may affect the intensity of their support for the preferred candidate.

EMPIRIC DEMOCRACY AND THE REFERENCE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN SINGLE CANDIDATE ELECTIONS

The dynamic changes in the Law on Election for Governors, Regents, and Mayors prove that there are dynamics and progressiveness in the implementation of Pilkada. The process of the birth of laws, including the process of the birth of amendments to the Law, is a legal political process. The legal political process is under the authority of the legislator. The approach method used is normative juridical method. The power of legislators in the political and legal process is not absolute, because the government also has a domain of authority, although not as big as the authority of legislators. The result states that The legal political process always rests on the principle of normative democracy as the embodiment of the das sollen principle. At the level of implementation of the rule of law, there will always be legal anomalies, because there is a mismatch between normative democracy as the embodiment of the basic principle with empirical democracy as the embodiment of the basic sein principle. The legitimacy of a single candidate in Law Number 10 of 2016 concerning the Election of Governors, Regents, and Mayors makes the preferences of political parties increasingly pragmatism.

Existence of Criminal Trials against Electoral Crimes of Regional Heads (Analysis of Pekanbaru High Court Decision Number 40/Pid.Sus/2021/PT.PBR)

The process of organizing regional head elections is certainly not without constraints and dynamics. There are many violations found in every stage of both administrative violations, violations of the code of conduct and criminal violations. After several changes and changes in the rules on the election of regional heads (Governors, Regents/Mayors), in the end even though Law No. 6 of 2020 describes the special crimes of elections in it, but in its application can not override the provisions of the Criminal Code. One of them is related to the criminal act of probation contained in Article 53 and Article 54 of the Criminal Code. The research conducted is normative juridical research using secondary data by processing data from primary legal materials, secondary legal materials and tertiary legal materials. Based on the results of the study, it is known that the handling of electoral crimes of regional heads in Indonesia, namely through integrated law enforcement (Gakkumdu) centers consisting of Election Supervisory Board (Bawaslu), Police and Prosecutors. Furthermore, criminal liability for perpetrators of Criminal Trials in the General Election of the Regional Head must first meet the criminal elements in Article 187A paragraph (1) Law No. 6 Year 2020 concerning the Election of Governors, Regents and Mayors and Article 53 paragraph (1) of the Criminal Code. Once both elements of the article are fulfilled, against the severity of the prison sentence and the fine should be reduced by one-third of the maximum penalty in Article 187A paragraph (1) that is to a maximum of 4 years in prison. The last legal analysis of the Pekanbaru High Court's Decision No. 40/Pid.Sus/2021/PT.PBR the judge's decision has been appropriate the judge gave a sanction of 3 (three) years in prison to the perpetrator. It is in accordance with the provisions of Article 187A of Law Number 6 of 2020 Jo Article 53 paragraph (1) of the Criminal Code. Because the intention of the act and the nature of harming the interests of others are fulfilled.

Palm oil and the politics of deforestation in Indonesia

This paper studies the interactions between political and economic incentives to foster forest conversion in Indonesian districts. Using a district–level panel data set from 2001 to 2016, we analyze variation in remotely sensed forest losses as well as measures of land-use licensing. We link these outcomes to political incentives arising before idiosyncratically–timed local mayoral elections as well as to price exposure measures based on oil palm soil suitability combined with global price variations for palm oil. Empirical results document increases of about 4% in deforestation in the year prior to local mayoral elections on average. Additionally, palm oil plays a crucial role in driving deforestation dynamics. Deforestation rates increase by 7% in places that experience a one standard deviation increase in local price exposure, but no upcoming elections. These effects are amplified to almost 19% larger forest losses in places that experience pre-election years and a standard deviation higher palm oil price exposure at the same time. We thus find clear evidence for economic and political incentives reinforcing each other as drivers of forest loss and land conversion for oil palm cultivation.

Conceptualizing Black Political Disillusionment

This article explores the impact of increased political disillusion on support for a Black regime within a city shaped by Black empowerment. Building on findings from previous research on the 2010 mayoral election in New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA), we examine how the intersection of race and economic stratification influences political disillusion in a Black community. W.E.B. Du Bois’s double consciousness guides our examination of the Black political sphere relative to the election of Mayor Mitch Landrieu in 2010. We conduct a quantitative content analysis to illuminate the communicative elements resulting from Black empowerment and the political incorporation of Black residents of New Orleans in relation to political disillusion. All participants (n=22) in this sample are Black New Orleanians who were eligible to vote in the 2010 New Orleans mayoral election. Our findings convey a Black electorate both disillusioned by post-Katrina economic and political developments and yet pragmatic about the possibilities for greater success with a white mayor. Also, the findings suggest that government disillusion influences why Black voters are willing to elect a white mayor. Lastly, we assert that participants, while being seen as outsiders to their community, develop a second-sight. This second-sight is generated by intra-racial political considerations that take on cultural, as well as political, form.

Editors’ Introduction

If we had to pick a theme for this issue, we would emphasize the links between the past, present, and future of Black politics. The three featured articles honor the legacy of a giant in the study of race and politics, provide a current, dynamic vision for our parent organization (NCOBPS), and present some of the newest in Black politics scholarship.On March 13, 2021, the National Conference of Black Political Scientists (NCOBPS) inaugurated Dr. Tiffany Willoughby-Herard of the University of California, Irvine, as its forty-first president. As is customary in other organizations’ flagship journals, we are pleased to publish a written transcript of Dr. Willoughby-Herard’s remarks. We hope that this is the beginning of a venerable tradition in the National Review of Black Politics.In addition to hailing the present, we honor our past in this issue with a reflection on the scholarship of Lucius Jefferson Barker (1928–2020), the first editor of the National Political Science Review, our predecessor journal. Dr. Barker had a remarkable career as a scholar of public law and Black politics. As the article by Barker’s former student H.W. Perry shows, there were clear linkages between these two topics in Barker’s research. Indeed, Barker’s understanding of systemic racism informed his research on judicial politics, and his research on judicial politics informed his scholarship on Black politics.The final article looks forward, presenting new scholarship and upholding our mission to publish the best peer-reviewed scholarship on Black politics. In “Conceptualizing Black Political Disillusionment: Stories from New Orleans,” Marcus Coleman, Marek Steedman, Iliyan Iliev, and Lawless Turner discuss African American attitudes about racial solidarity in the 2010 mayoral election in New Orleans, which elected the city’s first white mayor (Mitch Landrieu) in more than thirty years. Read the article for its substance, but also note other features of this piece. First, the empirical findings for this article are based on qualitative data (focus groups). In the spirit of methodological pluralism, we believe that it is important to highlight our commitment to publishing all kinds of peer-reviewed scholarship on Black politics, regardless of method. Second, this article includes a nonacademic co-author, Lawless Turner (whose identity was not concealed to the reviewers—the academic authors were). Turner was the focus group moderator for the data collection. His collaborators rightfully give him credit as an equal co-author. We applaud the other co-authors for making this decision, which shows them to be true role models when it comes to producing ethical, community-engaged scholarship.Truly, it takes a community to produce this journal. We cannot publish it in a timely fashion without the support of the NCOBPS community. We are grateful to our NCOBPS leadership (Executive Director Kathie Stromile Golden, President Tiffany Willoughby-Herard, and Immediate Past President Sekou Franklin) for their undying support of the journal. And we thank you, NCOBPS members, for your support as well. We hope that you continue to invest in making this journal a success by submitting your articles, reviewing the work of others when asked, and citing work published here. These steps are essential to ensuring the success of the National Review of Black Politics.

Penerapan Advance Encryption Standart dalam Pengamanan Elektronik Voting

E-Voting is an election that uses information technology facilities as well as electronic devices where part or all of the process is done digitally. The electoral process by means of E-voting can help the counting process faster and costs less than the conventional electoral process. However, this electronic-based election is prone to manipulation, therefore it requires protection of the system. In this study, AES and CSRF algorithms were implemented to increase security in the E-Voting application. The election is limited to the election of the executive mayor / regent. This study uses Acunetix software to test the level of security. In testing, four versions of the website were made, namely: the website without AES and CSRF, the website only with AES, the website only CSRF and the website using AES and CSRF. The test results on the website with AES and CSRF show a satisfactory increase in security, only one medium level application vulnerability warning and two low level application vulnerability warnings. Test results with Acunetix on websites without AES and CSRF received seven medium warnings and eleven low warnings. The CSRF test results only get two low warnings but the number of data scans is only a few. The AES test results only get four medium warnings and one warning. Thus, the application of the AES algorithm can increase the level of security of the E-Voting system

Italy and Euroscepticism – political uncertainty gives way to temporary political relief

The 2018 elections in Italy produced an electoral outcome that caused much concern for the EU and often led to confrontation between Rome and Brussels, particularly over budget spending and migration policy. The coalition between ‘populist’ Five-Star Movement and the far-right League (Lega Nord) demonstrated a nationalist agenda and strong anti-EU sentiments. With over a year in power, the government saw the emergence of Matteo Salvini, whose dominance as the agenda setter continued to grow through his tough stance against migration. This was evidenced by the increased popularity and favourable results in the European Parliamentary elections of May 2019. The most recentofpolitical crises,in Italy which saw Salvini undermine his government to trigger new national elections to win the majority has backfired and left him sidelined with the creation of a new coalition between PD and the Five-Star Movement. This paper wishes to highlight the opportunity for the EU to show solidarity with Italy by supporting the new government on issues such as migration management and allowing flexibility on its budget. Taking this chance to improve Italian citizens’ attitudes towards the union is imperative to reducing the risk of Salvini returning to power.

Kajian Yuridis Tentang Kesadaran Warga Negara Untuk Menggunakan Hak Pilih Dalam Melaksanakan Demokrasi Pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah

The Republic of Indonesia is a state based on the rule of law in implementing state administration based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution. The administration of government with a democratic system in which the highest sovereignty is in the hands of the people and in its implementation the people elect a leader to run the government. To determine the regional leader / regional head must be carried out through regional head elections. Regional head elections are intended to continue the government which has ended its term of office. Therefore, regional head elections must be held simultaneously throughout the territory of the Republic of Indonesia. The holding of regional head elections is a big job and is the responsibility of all parties, including all citizens of the Republic of Indonesia, so that the implementation of regional head elections runs well. The regional head elections in question have been held and are the result of the hard work of various relevant state institutions that have carried out their duties and responsibilities, in this case the General Election Commission (KPU) which has held regional head elections simultaneously throughout the territory of the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI). ). The 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia regulates the voting rights of citizens to participate and actively participate in determining regional leaders / regional heads who will lead in their respective territories. Citizens have the right to vote to vote at regional head elections. This is of course an awareness and responsibility as citizens so that regional leaders / regional heads are elected who are able to organize government and create prosperity and justice based on the values contained in the principles of Pancasila. The problem in this research is how a juridical study of the awareness of citizens to use their voting rights in implementing democracy in regional head elections?This research is a normative juridical research with the Library Research research method. The data collection method uses secondary data in the form of primary legal materials and secondary and tertiary legal materials. The population in this study is a random population of residents / community of Pengkol hamlet, Mangunsari village, Gunung pati District, Semarang City. The results of the research show that people in this region as citizens of the Republic of Indonesia have the awareness and responsibility to exercise their voting rights in the implementation of regional head elections, especially the election for Mayor and Deputy Mayor of Semarang on December 9, 2020. Regional head elections in this region have been going well and in a conducive situation even though it was held during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is hoped that the holding of this regional head election will produce regional leaders who have reliable and quality leadership management and are able to bring the community to realize social justice for all Indonesian people.

Migration and Democratization in Brazil: The Case of Electoral Participation and Competition.

Deepening democratization in Brazil has coincided with sustained flows of domestic migration, which raises an important question of whether migration deepens or depresses democratic development in migrant-sending regions. Whereas earlier perspectives have viewed migration as a political "brain drain," we contend that out-migration can generate resources that promote democratic processes back home. We investigate the role of migration in two aspects of democratization: electoral participation and competition. The analyses are based on spatial panel data models of mayoral election results across all municipalities between 1996 and 2012. The results show that migration increases electoral participation and competition in migrant-sending localities in Brazil. This study also identifies the sociopolitical context that conditions the impact of migration: the effect is most often present in the context of rural-urban migration and is more pronounced in sending localities with less democratic political structures. Moreover, using spatial network models, we find evidence for the transmission of political remittances from migration destination municipalities to origin municipalities. The present study extends the research on the migration-development nexus to the political arena, thus demonstrating the value of integrating demographic processes into explanations of political change.

Technocratic attitudes and voting behaviour ten years after the Eurozone crisis: Evidence from the 2019 EP elections

The onset of the Great Recession raised the profile of technocracy, or government by experts, as a contrasting model to democracy. Yet, there is little research on how attitudes towards technocracy may impact European citizens' political behaviour. Moreover, the consistency of technocracy supporters' political attitudes, especially towards the EU, is questionable. This paper uses new survey panel data collected before and after the European parliament elections in May 2019 in six countries (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain). We investigate how citizens’ technocratic attitudes affect their voting behaviour in the European elections. We find evidence that citizens with technocratic attitudes are less likely to support mainstream parties, and tend to either abstain or, if they vote, to give their vote to anti-system parties, especially from the populist right. In addition, by distinguishing technocracy supporters according to their partisanship, we conclude that technocracy is a thin ideology that can be combined with different patterns of political support: while many technocracy supporters have no party identification or support non-mainstream parties and show dissatisfaction with democracy and the EU, another subgroup of technocracy supporters identifies with a mainstream political party and show above average political support and support for the EU.

The political cycle of road traffic accidents

Road traffic accidents mean lost productivity and medical expenditures. We explain trends in traffic accidents as a function of the political cycle using municipal data from Italy. We show that during municipal election years, the accident rate increases by 1.5%, with a 2% increase in the injury rate but no effect on the fatality rate. The effects are stronger in the quarter prior to the election quarter, when the electoral campaign is at its zenith, and in the second quarter after the election for the new elected mayor. We show that this is the result of a decrease in tickets for traffic violations (rate and revenues) during election years. Our results are robustly driven by the municipal political cycle defined in different ways, and their magnitude and direction are not explained by the spillover effects between municipalities. Proximity to a national police station reduces the impact of local elections on injury rates.