Legitimacy Of Elections Research Articles

Portrayal of Kazakhstan: Sentiment and Topics in Online Media (2022-2023)

This paper sought to delineate how English media frame Kazakhstan. We employed co-occurrence network and sentiment analysis across 130 newspaper pieces published in 2022 and 2023. The results showed that the news in the UK and Qatar often associated Kazakhstan with Russia and China, and also referred to it as a Muslim country, which until the events of January 2022 was considered a peaceful and quiet country. Among the prevailing terms, there were “Kazakhstan,” “country,” “Tokayev,” “Russia,” and “protest”. Kazakhstan was represented as a country ruled by an influential leader (Tokayev), maintaining diplomatic relations with countries in Europe and Asia. Kazakhstan’s image suffered due to the violent crackdown on protests during the January events and accusations of supporting Russia to circumvent sanctions, which the government denies. However, the January events awakened a wave of foreign media interest in Kazakhstan, which gradually subsided over time. The sentiment analysis unearthed that the peak of positive sentiment coincided with events such as scientific achievements, cultural successes and progressive changes, while the decline was characterized by coverage of problems within the country facing serious challenges, including worker safety issues, political suppression, economic instability and questions about the legitimacy of elections. Resultantly, a rather ambivalent portrayal emerged.

Влияние явки избирателей на легитимность президентских выборов в мире

This paper reveals the impact of voter turnout on the legitimacy of presidential elections based on the materials of 20 largest states holding such elections in terms of the number of voters. In March 2024, presidential elections were held in Russia and in November elections are scheduled in the United States, the outcome of which will have an impact on the domestic and foreign policies of these states. The author has tested the hypothesis that in most cases, for the existing political regime in countries where subject and patriarchal political cultures are widespread, high voter turnout acts as a donor of legitimacy, therefore, the authorities seek to involve the maximum number of voters in conventional political participation in presidential elections and ensure victory for the person holding the office of president (incumbent). In countries where the political culture of participation has become more widespread, the competition of strong candidates is a source of legitimacy for political regimes that do not seek to mobilize all voters to participate in presidential elections and are most often unable to ensure the re-election of the incumbent. Based on the analysis of electoral statistics of presidential elections in the studied states, it was concluded that high electoral activity in countries with a predominance of national and patriarchal political cultures, even if there is no real competition between candidates, but with broad public recognition of the existing political regime, ensures the legitimacy of elections. In countries where political culture of participation has become more widespread, high turnout is a consequence of interest in elections, and not the result of the mobilization of the electorate by the political regime. Examples are Turkey and France, where the last presidential elections were held with high turnout and competition between the two most popular candidates; low electoral activity in the presidential elections is a prerequisite for the subsequent political crisis and dismantling of the political regime (Afghanistan, Nigeria). Acceptable level of voter turnout in the presidential elections, which can act as an indicator of their legitimacy, is about 60–66%.

Equity of spatial access to polling stations in selected regions in Ghana: are economically disadvantaged populations handicapped in their electoral access?

ABSTRACT Equity of access to electoral polling stations (EPS) is a key to enhancing the legitimacy of elections in democratic governance. A crucial characteristic of this equity is the level of spatial access to EPS and its distribution among populations and related socio-economic determinants. This study investigates the disparities of access to EPS for four selected regions in Ghana. The findings show that economic status and access to EPS are inversely related, indicating that access to EPS is not equitable within and between regions. The poor access for economically disadvantaged populations is indicative of unequal access to basic socioeconomic opportunities.

Electoral Crisis Communications: Combatting Disinformation & the Contest for Electoral Legitimacy

In the age of weaponized disinformation, the question for democracies is not merely who will win an election, but whether the outcome will be accepted as legitimate. To assess the challenge faced by U.S. electoral officials in convincing the public of the security of election procedure we conducted a survey experiment on a national sample of 4987 U.S. adults in the lead-up to the 2020 election. Subjects were exposed to claims about voter fraud as well as crisis communication counter-messaging attributed to election officials. We find that regardless of the messaging strategy, subjects were unmoved by the counter-messaging with partisanship being a clear predictor of increased skepticism towards election security. Our findings illustrate the difficulties election officials face in convincing the publics about election legitimacy and highlight the systemic dangers posed by electoral disinformation.

Distrust or Ignorance of the Institution? Explaining Extremely Low Electoral Turnout in the Czech Senate Elections

Extremely low voter turnout may indicate low interest in public affairs, or even in democracy itself, and is thus often seen as an indicator of the quality of democracy. It also undermines the legitimacy of elections and whole institutions. In the long run, low turnout can be a threat to the preservation of democracy. Using the case of Czech Senate elections, this research examines factors that potentially explain the extremely low turnout we observe during certain types of elections. This study measures the effect of trust in an institution and knowledge of the institution – two factors which have to date received little attention in previous research and which have the potential to explain the differences in electoral turnout between institutions in the same country where traditional theories (such as the Second Order Election Thesis) are insufficient. Using an online survey method that included questions measuring general political knowledge, knowledge of the Senate, and the trust in the Senate, original data representing the population of the Czech Republic aged 18 to 65 (n=2,096) were collected. A logistic regression model analysis reveals that the odds ratio of people voting in Senate elections has a strong positive association with trust in the Senate as an institution. Consequently, future research should develop a more detailed concept of trust in a particular institution and explain how such trust is constituted. This applies not only to Czech Senate elections: a similar effect is evident in European Parliament elections in several EU member states. Although this study fails to show that knowledge of an institution affects voter turnout, it does show that people’s knowledge of the Senate is much lower than their general political knowledge. This study also confirms previous work showing a strong positive association between higher general political knowledge and voter turnout.

E-Voting Meets Blockchain: A Survey

The utilization of electronic voting systems for the election of public offices is becoming widespread globally. This trend can be attributed to the benefits provided by these systems, including remote voting capabilities and accelerated vote counting. Furthermore, electronic voting systems offer improved privacy and enhanced protection against voting bias. Blockchain technology enhances the robustness of the voting process through its immutable vote storage mechanism, thereby reducing the threat of vote tampering and safeguarding the legitimacy of elections. This technology has been adopted by countries such as Germany, Russia, Estonia, and Switzerland for use in their e-voting systems. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the blockchain-based e-voting systems currently being implemented by various countries and companies and proposed for academic research. Additionally, this study analyzes the challenges faced by blockchain e-voting systems and identifies areas for future research to enhance the trustworthiness of such systems.

Freedom As and Against Democracy

Freedom As and Against Democracy

Election Fraud, YouTube, and Public Perception of the Legitimacy of President Biden

Skepticism about the outcome of the 2020 presidential election in the United States led to a historic attack on the Capitol on January 6th, 2021 and represents one of the greatest challenges to America's democratic institutions in over a century. Narratives of fraud and conspiracy theories proliferated over the fall of 2020, finding fertile ground across online social networks, although little is know about the extent and drivers of this spread. In this article, we show that users who were more skeptical of the election's legitimacy were more likely to be recommended content that featured narratives about the legitimacy of the election. Our findings underscore the tension between an "effective" recommendation system that provides users with the content they want, and a dangerous mechanism by which misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracies can find their way to those most likely to believe them.

Challenging Democracy: Singapore’s Increasing Rejection of Democratic Values

Singapore is a relatively young country that earned its independence from Malaysia in 1965, yet this developing democracy has achieved a remarkable GDP per capita that in 2019 was higher than the US’s. Fostering economic growth has been a top priority for the country’s dominant political party, the People’s Action Party (PAP) who has controlled the country’s executive branch since 1959. However, in order to remain the dominant political party, the PAP has compromised the country’s democratic institutions and the people’s civil liberties. In the general parliamentary elections, the PAP has increased the usage and severity of electoral manipulation tactics in order to ensure elections in their favor. Not only have they eroded the legitimacy of elections, but they have also repeatedly abused control of the judicial branch to push for decisions that suppressed opposition parties and protected PAP leaders. Lastly, the PAP, in order to suppress the spread of anti-PAP sentiment, has shut down news websites, jailed journalists, and threatened the livelihood of anybody who criticizes the PAP, contradicting constitutional civil liberties. The People’s Action Party has brought a number of economic benefits to Singapore, yet economic growth has come at the expense of the liberal democracy, trending Singapore in the direction of autocracy and challenging the notion that democracy is the only path for a developing nation’s success.

The Impact of Global Pandemic Challenges on the Legitimacy of Election and Referendum Processes

The legitimation aspects of elections and referendums under conditions of a global pandemic are considered. Their compliance with the legitimacy criteria aimed to ensure the quality of legitimacy and democracy of the newly formed authorities and overall political agenda are analysed. Cases of abuse of the electoral process and violation of the rights and freedoms of voters have been studied, in particular due to violations of the right to health by ignoring medical and epidemiological recommendations. Significant legitimation problems were determined in respect of trust decrease for both the electoral or referendum processes: absence of a regulatory framework for postponing and delaying of elections due to pandemic conditions is a commonplace amongst countries, their conduction with significant restrictions on suffrage; urgent adoption or addition of the legal basis that took place without involving civil society to a proper discussion; government decision-making was on the verge of balancing constitutional rights: on elections and referendums and on health; respective supervision was possible only at the national level, but only in the dedicated areas, at the international – only in moderately safe areas; it was pointed out for the need on moving to new innovative forms of voters’ registration and accountancy, candidates check, voting, and observation; in countries with authoritarian regimes, the conflict tension has increased as a result of abusing by the government of the emergency state to strengthen its position, to pressure on the opposition and media, etc. It was concluded that the pandemic highlighted existing problems in legal ground, respectively resulting in reducing of community trust level to processes of holding elections and referenda, still on the other hand – has contributed to the improvement of existing legislation and set out the task of developing new rules on addressing new challenges and emergencies: infectious, economic, climate, radiation and others, and, therefore, to ensure proper administration, financing, observation and control of elections and referendums for their legitimacy and democracy.

Public observation as a tool of election legitimacy

The author of the article considers election observation as a form of public control provided by civil society to contribute to election legitimacy and to strengthen voters’ confidence in the election results as well as in the legality of the legislative branch. The article analyzes the practice of video broadcasting of voting process, the cases of public observation done by public chambers at the elections to the State Duma in 2021. The conclusion is made about the need to improve the legal regulation of public control at elections. The author proposes to appoint election observers in places of detention with this right to be realized by civic monitoring commissions. Since elections are a form of democracy, it is important to expand the possibility of public control in the federal legislation not only over the vote, but also at the previous stages of the electoral process federal legislation

RESOLVABILITY OF ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AS A CRITERION OF THEIR FAIRNESS

Abstract: the legal content of the mathematical criterion of resolvability of electoral systems is considered. The connection of this rule with the principle of fair elections has been established. As it turned out, almost all electoral systems used in elections in Russia do not fully or partially comply with this provision. It is proposed to abandon the use of unscientific rules (the method of seniority, drawing lots) to determine the winner in elections in case of equality of votes among several candidates. It is proposed to use a number of preferential methods that meet this criterion and allow for fair elections in one round. Ultimately, taking into account the criterion of resolvability in the development of electoral systems will increase the legitimacy of elections as a scientific method of decision-making in social choice in a democratic society.

The Role of the Regional Economic Communities and their Strategies to Promote and Uphold Credible and Legitimate Electoral Processes in Africa

Electoral malpractices in Africa are multifaceted, intertwined, and complex. Most African countries have held regular elections, albeit often flawed and contested. Elections have been contested because of structural problems within States and elections have become highly competitive. The rise of authoritarian democracies where most elections serve as a means of survival for African leaders determined to remain in power has resulted in disputed elections. The shrinking political spaces within States has led to a slide towards authoritarian democracy. The capture and neutralisation of democracy-enhancing institutions has caused vote-rigging, voter intimidation, and manipulation of vote results to mention a few. The phenomena of third termism and increasing prospects of life presidencies have been common causes of disputed elections. The use of constitutional and soft coups to retain power has often resulted in contested elections. These and many other structural issues have affected the credibility and legitimacy of elections in Africa mostly. The Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have assumed a role to address these challenges. They have adopted legal instruments to promote democratic elections. They are involved in observing elections (pre- and post-electoral audits), mediation, political negotiations, and dialogues. In some cases, they have imposed sanctions on States violating constitutional order to protect democracy within States. This article discusses how the RECs have dealt with election disputes in the past decades, and their strategies to promote and uphold credible and legitimate electoral processes in their regions. This article concludes by highlighting the challenges of electoral democracy within the RECs, and what they could do better to promote credible and legitimate elections in their regions.

When election expectations fail: Polarized perceptions of election legitimacy increase with accumulating evidence of election outcomes and with polarized media.

The present study, conducted immediately after the 2020 presidential election in the United States, examined whether Democrats' and Republicans' polarized assessments of election legitimacy increased over time. In a naturalistic survey experiment, people (N = 1,236) were randomly surveyed either during the week following Election Day, with votes cast but the outcome unknown, or during the following week, after President Joseph Biden was widely declared the winner. The design unconfounded the election outcome announcement from the vote itself, allowing more precise testing of predictions derived from cognitive dissonance theory. As predicted, perceived election legitimacy increased among Democrats, from the first to the second week following Election Day, as their expected Biden win was confirmed, whereas perceived election legitimacy decreased among Republicans as their expected President Trump win was disconfirmed. From the first to the second week following Election Day, Republicans reported stronger negative emotions and weaker positive emotions while Democrats reported stronger positive emotions and weaker negative emotions. The polarized perceptions of election legitimacy were correlated with the tendencies to trust and consume polarized media. Consumption of Fox News was associated with lowered perceptions of election legitimacy over time whereas consumption of other outlets was associated with higher perceptions of election legitimacy over time. Discussion centers on the role of the media in the experience of cognitive dissonance and the implications of polarized perceptions of election legitimacy for psychology, political science, and the future of democratic society.

The Rise of Electoral Management Bodies: Diffusion and Effects

AbstractElectoral Management Bodies (EMBs) are commonly established to increase electoral legitimacy by designing, implementing and/or enforcing rules surrounding nominations, polling, voting, and tabulation. Globally however, EMB design, governance, and efficacy vary considerably. Utilizing four EMB data sources, this article asks (1) to what extent do EMBs form a new pillar of constitutional governance; and (2) how effective are they in managing and increasing the legitimacy of elections? We begin by detailing the global diffusion of EMBs, temporally and geographically, together with trends in governance methods, constitutionalization, and degrees of autonomy and capacity. We then turn to examine the extent to which existing EMBs are effective, empirically testing a global sample of states on two measures associated with electoral legitimacy. Four results of our analyses stand out. First, independent EMBs are most abundant in democratizing regions, including Latin America and the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Second, while EMBs are increasing in number, only a slight majority of states enshrine these institutions in their constitutions. Third, while independent EMBs are the most common systems, autonomous bodies are largely found in democracies. Finally, EMBs characterized by greater degrees of autonomy and capacity are associated with lower levels of both electoral violence and concerns regarding electoral legitimacy.

Political homophily, bifurcated social reality, and perceived legitimacy of the 2020 US presidential election results: A four‐wave longitudinal study

AbstractWe report the results from a four‐wave longitudinal study (N = 951–1349) investigating perceptions of the 2020 US Presidential Election as legitimate. Specifically, the role of homophily (“love of same”) was examined in creating politically homogenous social and informational networks that facilitate and amplify polarized perceptions of the election's legitimacy and belief in voter fraud across time. Consistent with our hypotheses, Trump voters’ susceptibility to misinformation about voter fraud and refusals to accept the election results as legitimate drastically increased to the extent to which they were entrenched in politically homophilic networks. Biden voters modestly strengthened their views of the election results as legitimate when entrenched in politically homophilic networks. Moreover, the influence of politically homophilic networks in facilitating this polarization grew stronger with the passage of time. Longitudinal modeling revealed that, among Trump voters, politically homophilic networks decreased perceptions of election legitimacy through increased belief in voter fraud.

Disparities in Poll Closures in the Age of COVID-19: A Case Study of Wisconsin

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 arose during the presidential primary process and spring elections for states across the U.S. One of the consequences of the pandemic on election administration was the closure of polling locations due to resource constraints and public health concerns. We aim to measure the extent to which disparities in electoral access and participation arose given polling place closures during the April 7, 2020, Wisconsin spring election. We run a spatial probit analysis on the probability of poll closures given population density and nonwhite populations of a given area using poll coordinate data provided by the Wisconsin Electoral Commission. We follow up to take advantage of the exogenous nature of poll closures to measure the impact of closure costs within the counties of Milwaukee and Dane via a multilevel logit analysis of turnout by mode. We find that the pandemic led to a series of poll closures that systematically impacted racial minorities and areas of high population density. Further, these poll closure costs as measured in increased distance to and size of polls are associated with reduced voter turnout, especially within Milwaukee County. We conclude that disparate access to polling places and costs of poll closures present challenges that must be overcome for purposes of election legitimacy and social cohesion.

Voter Participation and Electoral Integrity in Nigeria’s 2019 General Elections

This paper examines the inclusivity and legitimacy of elections in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic amidst, concerns continually expressed over the zero-sum nature of Nigerian politics, which manifests in the rising tide of contentious elections. Issues such as logistical failures and delays, misconduct and irregularities, violence, challenges of internal party democracy, corruption and a biased judiciary, have almost become permanent features of electioneering in the country. The paper explores the value mechanisms and processes that can enable an electoral process that guarantees transparency and accountability based on Nigeria’s electoral laws and regional instruments, such as the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, provides a credible opportunity for broad based participation, enables significant roles for the judiciary, anticorruption bodies, civil society organisations, and political parties as well as provide the strategic tools to ensure the credibility and integrity of each stage of the electoral cycle. The context of the 2019 elections, which recorded the participation of only a third of the 84 million eligible voters, will provide a barometer to measure the overall health of Nigeria’s electoral democracy, drawing extensively from secondary sources.

Elections, Legitimacy, and Democratic Consolidation in Southern Africa Lessons from Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi

Regular elections are now the norm across most of sub-Saharan Africa, but repeated elections have not guaranteed the consolidation of democracy. Election legitimacy is crucial for democratisation. When losing political actors and their supporters are not satisfied with the electoral process, there is potential for growing political tensions. Fraudulent or controversial elections fail to confer legitimacy on the winners, and undermine the integrity of elections and democracy. Drawing on Afrobarometer data and media accounts, this paper focuses on the most recent elections held in three southern African countries: Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi. We show that when citizens believe that elections were not free and fair, there is a decline in their satisfaction with democracy and the trust they have in institutions such as electoral commissions and courts of law. The absence of political reforms to address disputed election outcomes increases the likelihood that future elections will not be contested fairly. This sets countries on a path of democratic decline rather than consolidation.

The Rise of Electoral Management Bodies: Diffusion and Effects

Electoral Management Bodies (EMBs) are commonly established to increase electoral legitimacy by designing, implementing and/or enforcing rules surrounding nominations, polling, voting, and tabulation. Globally however, EMB design, governance, and efficacy vary considerably. Utilizing four EMB data sources, this paper asks (1) to what extent do EMBs form a new pillar of constitutional governance; and (2) how effective are they in managing and increasing the legitimacy of elections? We begin by detailing the global diffusion of EMBs, temporally and geographically, together with trends in governance methods, constitutionalization, and degrees of autonomy and capacity. We then turn to examining the extent to which existing EMBs are effective, empirically testing a global sample of states on two measures associated with legitimacy. Four results of our analyses stand out. First, independent EMBs are most abundant in democratizing regions including Latin America and the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Second, while EMBs are increasing, only a slight majority of states enshrine these institutions in their constitutions. Third, while independent EMBs are the most common systems, autonomous bodies are largely found in democracies. Finally, EMBs characterized by greater degrees of autonomy and capacity are associated with lower levels of both electoral violence and concerns regarding electoral legitimacy.