Electoral Integrity Research Articles

Risks to the Public

Mini-editorial (PGN) 2020 was a crazy year, with all kinds of risks on display. As usual, many of the lessons noted in past issues of SEN and RISKS have been largely ignored, and failures continue to mirror events from the past that have long been discussed here. Issues such as safety, security, and reliability always seem to need more foresight than they receive. Y2K con- tinues to hit somewhere each New Year's Day, when short- term remediations that demanded periodic upgrading have been forgotten. (I suppose old COBOL code will still ex- ist in year 2100, when there may be ambiguities relating to dates that could be 21xx or 20xx (although 19xx is unlikely), and the narrow windowing xes will fail even more dramati- cally.) Election integrity continues to be a real concern, where we are caught in the crosshairs between computer systems and networks that are not meaningfully trustworthy or au- ditable, and the nontechnological risks are still pervasive from unbalanced redistricting, creative dysinformation, poli- tics, Citzens United, and foreign interference. We need non- partisan scrutiny and defense against would-be subverters to overcome potential attacks and inadvertent mistakes. In pres- ence of potential risks in every part of the process, a strong sense of risk-awareness is required by voters, election officials, and the media (both proactively and remedially, as needed).

Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Manipulations in Russia

AbstractIncumbents have many tools to tip elections in their favor, yet little is known about how they choose between strategies. By comparing various tactics, this article argues that electoral malpractice centered on manipulating institutions offers the greatest effectiveness while shielding incumbents from public anger and criminal prosecution. To demonstrate this, the study focuses on a widespread institutional tactic: preventing candidates from accessing the ballot. First, in survey experiments, Russian voters respond less negatively to institutional manipulations, such as rejecting candidates, than to blatant fraud, such as ballot box stuffing. Next, using evidence from 25,935 Russian mayoral races, the article shows that lower societal and implementation costs enable incumbents to strategically reject candidacies from credible challengers and then reduce their electoral vulnerability. In all, the technology behind specific manipulations helps determine when and how incumbents violate electoral integrity.

Election Data Transparency: Obtaining Precinct-Level Election Returns

Election data transparency, accessibility, and usability constitute key dimensions of electoral integrity, as they allow for an additional accountability check on how states and localities run elections. Yet, it is an understudied topic, because of challenges in systematic data collection. Lack of data transparency has important implications for a democratic election process: It can reflect non-compliance with federal and state election laws, discriminatory practices, or lack of capacity in modernizing the conduct of elections. Thus far, there is no standard way for states to report election data, and there is no standard way to request, collect, and disseminate them. This paper presents the various ways state and local governments make official precinct-level election results publicly available, based on an OpenElections collection effort that covered primary and general elections in 2016 and 2018 in every U.S. state. We describe methods for obtaining official precinct results, ranging from formal records requests under state law, photographing pages in-person, to results sent by fax, and the benefits and costs of those methods. Using this information, local and state officials could adopt processes and policies to promote public access to official precinct-level election results.

Analisis Distribusi Logistik pada Pemilu 2019 di Kota Medan

This study aims to explore the 2019 election logistics distribution process carried out by the KPU of Medan City along with the obstacles that resulted in the late election logistics distribution process; finding a way out of the delay in the distribution process of election logistics in Medan City so that it is in accordance with the principles of being on time, effectively and efficiently; and to analyze the impact of late distribution of election logistics on the integrity of elections. This study used descriptive qualitative method. The results showed that many factors caused delays in the distribution of the 2019 election logistics, such as the DPTHP stage, fleet shortages, policies taken for distribution from PPS in urban villages to polling stations on April 17, 2019 before the start of voting, and others. as a way out of these problems: one, permanent distribution from KPU to PPS and finally to TPS; two, Using distribution centers (warehouses) in five constituencies in Medan City to break the concentration from one place in order to ease the work, be more focused, and minimize the occurrence of logistical delays and the exchange of ballots between electoral districts. Logistical delays indicate human error, lack of capacity and capability of election administrators.

Comparison of Perception of 2020 Election Security Threats Between Young and Old Voters

Elections constitute the bedrock of a democratically governed society. Due to the long time it has historically taken to ensure equal social participation, the integrity of elections needs to be particularly protected to make every vote count. The democratic process itself has been subject to manipulation through widespread illegal practices in many municipal areas like New York or Chicago that have earned in the past a notoriety for ballot stuffing or stealing votes through impersonation. In the current American social climate of the 2020 presidential election, the same concerns come up to the forefront, compounded by threats of cybersecurity. Our research gauged types and extent of concernment among two age groups of voters: college students and senior citizens. We explored the correlations using the baseline survey and re-examined them after applying information frames through a paired comparison. We found that opinions about voter ID laws and cybersecurity have a strong association to age. Our original hypothesis was that seniors will unchangeably perceive voter identification as essential to election safety while young people will emphasize cybersecurity but will be open-minded. Contrary to that hypothesis, seniors expressed an equal concern over voter ID and cybersecurity and seemed to be more susceptible to the influence of new information. Comparably, college students overwhelmingly confirmed their preoccupation with cybersecurity, marginalizing voter ID, but unexpectedly did not show inclination to easily change their views. The age of voters plays a role in how they perceive the concerns and how they react to information about them.

Sri Lanka's First Election Commission: Strengthening Electoral Management or Advancing Electoral Integrity?

The undisputed success of Sri Lanka’s first Election Commission (2015 – 2020) was the conduct of free and fair elections, that is to say, electoral management. I argue in this article that, by design and in practice, it was unable to or failed to advance electoral integrity that is urgently required for the health of Sri Lanka’s constitutional democracy. At critical points when electoral integrity and constitutional democracy were threatened, it is the Court, the traditional institutional check on the Executive and the Legislature, that prevented its further erosion. In this regard, the Commission made a modest contribution, but that contribution was contingent on personal disposition of the Commissioners. The Commission, therefore, was an institutional innovation that addressed symptoms of Sri Lanka’s ailing constitutional democracy but not its root-causes. The Commission has been a necessary but insufficient fix for the electoral pathologies of Sri Lanka’s constitutional democracy. Its ‘guarantor’ function, as I illustrate in this article, is narrowly conceived, perceived and lived out.

Izbori u Mađarskoj i u drugim državama pod posebnim pravnim poretkom - posebno tokom pandemije

The paper examines what was Hungary's and other European countries' answer to the collision between the exercise of the right to vote and the measures of public health meant to guarantee the right to health. The paper focuses on the effects that the epidemic triggered by the coronavirus had on Hungary's and other countries' elections and electoral processes. Overall, managing the situation posed a serious challenge to all decision makers throughout the world, and countries holding general elections during the pandemic faced particular difficulties. In countries where decision was taken to hold (general) elections (often after postponement), increased measures of protection were implemented during both the campaign and the voting. However, experience shows that despite all these efforts fewer citizens turned out to vote than before the pandemic. This faces countries which are about to organize general elections with a serious dilemma. In fact, decision makers have to ensure the right to vote for all those wanting to exercise it on the one hand, and on the other hand this has to be done amid circumstances that would not expose voters' health to danger. In order to reach a higher turnout, softening electoral requirements (concerning, for example, the very process of casting the vote) seems to be an obvious solution, but the principle of proportionality has also to be taken into account to preserve the integrity of elections.

Od zahteva za slobodne i poštene izbore do izborne reforme - dijalog vlasti i opozicije u Srbiji 2019. godine

This article analyses the context that led to a dialogue on electoral conditions between the Serbian government and the opposition by applying the methodological matrix of standards for "free and fair" elections as defined by international organizations. Serbian electoral law has implemented international standards, but all electoral cycles have shown a certain level of irregularities that call into question the integrity of a number of electoral processes in the 2012-2017 interval. Two rounds of interparty dialogue produced only partial results. By amending a number of laws, certain election procedures were improved, but they remained in the shadow of unresolved crucial problems. Public broadcasting services remained closed to opposition parties and alternative policies, and the pressure on voters remained present. Instead of improving election conditions, major electoral reform was carried out. The electoral threshold was lowered from 5% to 3%. This form of electoral engineering carried out by the government did not diminish the boycott of the opposition, but it brought about significant changes in the electoral system, the effects of which were felt in the next elections. The epilogue of the dialogue was a boycott of the election by a part of the opposition parties, a politically unrepresentative parliament, and the Serbia's return to the ranks of authoritarian, hybrid regimes in index bases that measure the quality of democracy. The announcement of early elections immediately after the constitution of the national parliament and a new round of dialogue on electoral conditions show that the problem of electoral integrity is still waiting for a solution.

Propaganda Chimera: Unpacking the Iranian Perception Information Operations in the Arab World

Abstract In the past four years, Iranian Information Operations (IOs) have received a lot of scrutiny by social media companies and policymakers. From 2018 to 2021, several accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram were taken down by tech companies for engaging in coordinated inauthentic behaviour. Despite the heated relationship between Iran and many Arab countries, the Iranian IOs in the Arabic online sphere have received less academic attention over the years. This study fills this gap by being one of the few studies to investigate the Iranian IOs in the Arab world. We analyse more than 9.3 million tweets posted from 2008 to 2020 using the hashed datasets shared by Twitter’s Election Integrity Hub. We found that Iran’s IOs have made the Arab world its primary target—despite the attention the US claims to receive from them. However, these IOs demonstrate very little engagement and reach amongst Arab users, limiting the possibilities of Iran infiltrating the online Arabic sphere, and fostering weak yet unruly Arab counterpublics. This study argues that Iran’s IOs garner their power from being perceived as efficient and dangerous operations that could pollute the public sphere of overseas nations, rather than through actual infiltration through engagement. We understand Iran’s efforts to be preoccupied with old propaganda efforts, through their investment in websites and imitation of news organisations. However, their efforts prove that Iran adopted the tactics of “new propaganda” that depend on creating a perceived atmosphere of distrust and chaos. We contribute to the discussion on information operations by proposing the term “perception IOs”, referring to IOs by governments that aspire to be perceived as effective meddling countries in foreign politics.

Protesty wyborcze w wyborach Prezydenta RP. Teoria i praktyka

This article is a detailed supplement to the text entitled “The right to protest against the election of the President of the Republic of Poland on the basis of the legislation of the Slovak and Czech Republic” (Studia Wyborcze 2021, vol. 31). Writing the study also stems from the necessity to consider the practice of considering such an election protest through the prism of its function, that is, the effective protection of election integrity and the sense of agency by the voter who brings the appeal. The aim of this study will be to answer the question whether the election protest, in its present shape, actually fulfills the goals assigned to it by the constitution-maker? Unfortunately, the conclusion that appears from this text is not optimistic, as the standard applied by the Supreme Court in the scope of considering election protests brought in the elections in 2020 unfortunately showed, at least, a feeling of helplessness and irritation on the part of the complainant.

선거관리위원회의 제도와 조직, 그리고 선거품질 : ELECT 데이터를 활용한 경험적 분석

선거관리위원회의 제도와 조직, 그리고 선거품질 : ELECT 데이터를 활용한 경험적 분석

Agents of resistance and revival? Local election monitors and democratic fortunes in Asia

ABSTRACT Cultural and political economy theories linking a vibrant civil society to democratic outcomes expect domestic election monitors to provide a vaccine against democratic backsliding. The empirical track record of such groups, however, is mixed. Drawing from theories of interest representation and social movement research, I present a novel approach to studying the effect of observer groups. Conceptualizing monitors as agenda-builders, I contend that their potential impacts rely on two factors neglected by previous studies: access to the public’s agenda, and access to policymakers. I test the impact of election monitoring on electoral integrity using cross-national time-series data of all democratic backsliding and revival episodes in Asia from 1950 to 2018. I find that domestic monitors do have more than a placebo effect, but that their capacities to immunize against democratic regression are modest at best. When neither access to the public’s agenda nor access to policymakers are present, monitors are unlikely to halt backsliding. However, public attention becomes an effective resource where groups have policy access. This adds to studies of democratic backsliding, election monitoring, and interest groups.

Citizens' Participation in Electoral Governance: A Redistricting Process

Citizens’ participation in electoral governance can be considered as a means for insuring electoral integrity. Some cases and problems of this participation are discussed in contemporary literature. Less attention has been paid to institutional forms of citizens’ participation in electoral redistricting. The paper presents a systematic picture to fill this gap, it also reveals the prospects of citizens’ participation in this area of electoral governance. Methodological framework for the study is contemporary theory of citizens’ participation and the S. Arnstein`s “ladder” of citizens’ participation. Making cross-case generalisations, the paper addresses the empirical material from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, India, Great Britain, the USA and Russia. It is conceivable that the adequate time frame for citizens’ participation and transparency are the most significant conditions for citizens` engagement.

The corruption of popular sovereignty

Abstract Populism marks a departure from the central forms of democratic governance over the past two centuries. As opposed to the primacy of the legislative branch and of institutional actors, most notably political parties, populism tends toward the unilateral authority of a charismatic leader, ruling on the basis of an electoral mandate. This article starts from an understanding of populism as being grounded in political mobilization in disregard of the institutions of governance. Even more centrally, populist leaders try to dismantle institutional constraints to allow for greater individual discretionary power. This article looks to legal vulnerabilities that might allow the institutional framework of democracy to withstand the new populist assault. The central insight is that corruption might prove the means of checking governance by the new breed of caudillos, the strongman rule that stands in opposition to separation of powers limitations on the executive. Two forms of corruption are examined. The first is the attempt to subordinate the electoral system itself. The second is the use of state discretionary authority to push the boundaries of clientelism and ultimately outright corruption. Whereas questions of electoral integrity are more commonly checked by formal constitutional boundaries, the question of ordinary corruption surfaces with regularity under populism. The article offers reasons why this might be the product of a descent from clientelism to cronyism to outright capture of public resources for private gain. In turn, the article offers arguments for how corruption invites review by broader layers of judicial and prosecutorial authorities than constitutional law.

Pitfall to Peace: FARC’s Political Participation and Mass Support for Peace Talks in Colombia

Transforming armed groups into legitimate political actors is often considered an ideal way to settle armed internal conflicts. In democracies, the efficacy of such approaches depends on the public legitimacy that the citizenry grants them. How does the prospect of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC’s) political participation influence citizens’ support for the peace process? This study addresses this question by triangulating evidence from three separate studies: (1) regression analysis using face-to-face nationally representative survey data, as well as (2) a vignette experiment and (3) a conjoint analysis, both conducted online with national samples of Colombians. Though methodologically distinct, each analysis converges on a singular conclusion: mass support for the integration of ex-FARC guerrillas into democratic politics damaged support for negotiated peace, often to similar or greater degrees than mass support for transitional justice mechanisms. We suspect this reflects citizens’ fear of undermining democratic representation, the legitimacy of democratic institutions, and electoral integrity.

Social media, disinformation, and regulation of the electoral process: a study based on 2018 Brazilian election experience

There is global concern about the impact that ‘fake news’ has on democratic decision-making processes. Democratic decision-making needs to be well informed and voters need a minimum of confidence in the information they receive about competitors. The Internet has increased the availability of information, but has allowed new ways of manipulating it to emerge. In recent electoral experiences, social media has increased the impact of misinformation on democracy. These experiences have shown us that Internet governance during the election campaign is an urgent issue. A laissez-faire approach to the electoral process is a threat to democracy because it allows all kinds of cheating. Institutions responsible for ensuring the integrity of elections need to try democratic resources to constrain competitors to behave responsibly. It is important to know the concrete experience of a country that has suffered the attack of disinformation campaigns during an election period, studying the action of the body responsible for organizing this process. This article discusses the guarantee of the electoral process based on the case study of the 2018 Brazilian election.

Governance and Electoral Integrity: Evidence from Subnational India

This article presents the findings of perceptions of electoral integrity survey for subnational elections in India between 2015 and 2017. The perceptions of electoral integrity survey is an attempt to provide a comprehensive, impartial and independent source of information derived from experts about elections conforming to internationally recognized principles and standards. The article then evaluates the factors that account for differences in the perceptions of electoral integrity in India. We show that higher-income states in India tend to have higher levels of electoral integrity. However, we argue that differences in the quality of governance best explain subnational variation in the perceptions of electoral integrity in India.

Three Outcomes of Contentious Elections

AbstractElections are contentious by design, but contentious election outcomes—from democratic backsliding to widespread protests and violence—occur regularly and represent significant challenges to both domestic and international stability. This review essay explores three specific outcomes of contentious elections (i.e., failed democratization, democracy protests, and election violence) using three recent, influential books on these topics. It highlights several, overlapping causal mechanisms, including those focusing on structural characteristics, actor behavior, and election cycle dynamics. It also explores four cross-cutting themes (i.e., democratization, electoral history, structural constraints, and money in politics), as well as three areas for future research (i.e., overlooked actors, election integrity, and international factors).

Pathways of money: insights from the 2017 Gujarat assembly election

ABSTRACT A paucity of understanding of the pathways through which money flows during elections renders all discussion on campaign finance conjectural and unpersuasive. Drawing on qualitative evidence from two assembly constituencies in Gujarat, the paper seeks to understand the “opaque” and “enigmatic” ways in which parties and candidates mobilize campaign finance and the mechanisms through which money and other goodies get channeled into the electoral process. Further, the paper also attempts to compute realistic estimates of campaign expenses under critical campaign heads and highlights the ways in which candidates bypass official spending limits set by the Election Commission. The paper’s findings speak to some of the core themes in the burgeoning scholarship on electoral integrity and political economy of campaign finance in the world’s emerging democracies.

Electoral integrity matters: how electoral process conditions the relationship between political losing and political trust

This contribution adds a new perspective to the debate on electoral integrity by asking how electoral integrity affects the way in which election results translate into citizen attitudes towards the political system. It introduces a causal mechanism that links political losing to political trust via evaluations of electoral fairness: citizens who voted for the losing camp are more likely to view the electoral process as unfair than citizens who voted for the winning camp, resulting in political distrust. It further suggests that the effects of political losing on political trust depend on the level of electoral integrity. In conditions where the elections were conducted in a free and fair manner, even those who voted for the losing camp have little reason to suspect foul play and therefore political losing should barely affect perceptions of the electoral process. Whenever there are actual indications of electoral malpractice, however, political losers have much more reason to doubt the integrity of the electoral process than those who are content with the outcome of the election. The contribution makes use of a unique dataset that ex-post harmonizes survey data from three cross-national survey projects (Asian Barometer Survey, European Social Survey, Latinobarómetro) and macro-level data from the Varieties-of-Democracy Project to cover 45 democracies in Europe, East Asia, and Latin America. Using multi-level modeling, it finds that political losing indeed decreases political trust indirectly via perceptions of electoral fairness. Confirming its key proposition, the empirical analysis shows that political losing has a weaker effect on political trust in countries where electoral integrity is high.