This study presents an analytical approach for evaluating the reliability of anhydrite rock tunnels, focusing on their characteristic swelling behavior. Anhydrite rocks, prone to significant expansion upon moisture exposure, pose a challenge in tunnel construction, potentially leading to structural issues such as floor heave and lining damage. To address this, this research develops an elastic swelling analytical solution based on humidity stress field theory, enabling the assessment of time-dependent stress and deformation changes in anhydrite tunnels. The solution’s applicability is demonstrated through its application to the Lirang tunnel. The investigation into the effects of support pressure, swelling time, and reserved deformation on tunnel reliability reveals that circumferential stress at the tunnel wall increases by 13.94% and 21.86% for swelling periods of 30 and 365 days, respectively. Similarly, radial displacement escalates by 22.97% and 35.93% over these periods, highlighting the significant impact of swelling behavior. Using a spreadsheet-based First Order Reliability Method (FORM) for analysis, this study finds that the original design of the Lirang tunnel did not meet the desired reliability standards under swelling conditions. However, strategic adjustments in construction variables, such as increasing support pressure to 1.2 MPa or enhancing reserved deformation to 59 mm, elevated the tunnel’s reliability to meet safety requirements. This research provides a vital framework for assessing and enhancing the reliability of anhydrite rock tunnels, considering the long-term effects of swelling. It underscores the importance of incorporating swelling behavior in the design and construction of tunnels in anhydrite rock formations, offering valuable insights for optimizing tunnel stability in such challenging geological conditions.