El Nino-Southern Oscillation Years Research Articles

Power of teleconnection patterns on precipitation and streamflow variability of upper Medjerda Basin

AbstractThe potential impact of large‐scale climate patterns of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in modulating precipitation regimes across the upper Medjerda River Basin in northern Tunisia is assessed. As the case study is located in the Mediterranean region (North Africa), the regional Mediterranean Oscillation (MOAC) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) are also investigated. Six precipitation time series are also observed. Strong correlations are identified between ENSO and precipitation series at lag − 2 years. Extreme ENSO years are reflected in the precipitation as periods of severe water deficit or excess. Wavelet spectra driven to seasonal precipitation reveal that precipitation is organized in preferred bands with distinct activities in each scale band, and that most of the precipitation variance is explained by the 2–8‐year scales. Using cross‐wavelet analysis, climate patterns that are most associated with precipitation variability are identified. The analysis demonstrates also that precipitations are simultaneously controlled by different climate patterns. Particularly, the influence of ENSO on precipitation is stronger as well as that of PDO and MO. Results indicate that precipitation variability at the upper Medjerda River Basin is associated with global‐scale ENSO processes at the annual as well as seasonal time scales and is aligned with changing phase difference between periods. Moreover, separation of annual precipitation into two seasons reveals statistically significant associations between El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO with dry and wet seasonal precipitation, respectively. Complementing this, three streamflow records with length up to 104 years are used, and relationships with rainfall series are analysed using wavelets. A strong coherence between rainfall and streamflow observations is found and justifies undertaking the study of climate‐streamflow relationships where ENSO exhibits potential impacts on annual streamflows. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Reexamination of the influence of ENSO on landfalling tropical cyclones in Korea

This study examines the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Korean Peninsula during the TC season, June through October, of the years 1951–2010. An ENSO year is defined when the seasonal mean of the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is greater/less than the typical seasonal mean by 0.5°C. The overall results of this study support that ENSO does not affect the landfalling TCs in Korea; the mean frequencies of the TC landfalls (influences) during El Nino and La Nina calculated over the entire analysis period are 1.1 (3.3) and 1.2 (3.0), respectively. The variations in the basin-wide distribution of TCs show that the influence of ENSO on TC distribution is extended over southeastern Japan with no significant signals coming from over the Korean Peninsula and the East China Sea. The change in the intensity of the landfalling TCs in the Korean Peninsula due to ENSO leads to the same conclusion as that in the frequency of the landfalling TCs. In addition, the same conclusion is obtained when the TC season duration is expanded to include the entire year and when different definitions of the ENSO years (e.g., based on the preceding or following winter NINO3.4 SST anomalies) are selected for analysis.

Can El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon?

[1] Prediction of interannual variability (IAV) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is limited by “internal” dynamics, and the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) seems to be at the heart of producing internal IAV of the ISM. If one could find an identifiable way through which these MISOs are modulated by slowly varying “external” forcing, such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the uncertainty in the prediction of IAV could be reduced, leading to improvement of seasonal prediction. Such efforts, so far, have been inconclusive. In this study, the modulation of MISOs by ENSO is assessed by using a nonlinear pattern recognition technique known as the Self‐Organizing Map (SOM). The SOM technique is efficient in handling the nonlinearity/event‐to‐event variability of the MISOs and capable of identifying various shades of MISO from large‐scale dynamical/thermodynamical indices, without providing information on rainfall. It is shown that particular MISO phases are preferred during ENSO years, that is, the canonical break phase is preferred more in the El Nino years and the typical active phase is preferred during La Nina years. Interestingly, if the SOM clustering is done by removing the ENSO effect on seasonal mean, the preference for the break node remains relatively unchanged; whereas, the preference reduces/vanishes for the active node. The results indicate that the El Nino–break relationship is almost independent of the ENSO‐monsoon relationship on seasonal scale whereas the La Nina–active association seems to be interwoven with the seasonal relationship.

Drought onset and recovery over the United States

[1] This study employs precipitation (P) and ensemble soil moisture data sets from 1916 to 2007 to study the drought onset and demise over the United States. Both meteorological drought, classified using the standardized precipitation indices (SPIs), and agricultural drought, classified using the soil moisture percentiles, are studied. Drought onset is more predictable than drought demise. It takes 5–8 months for a region to accumulate enough P deficits to begin a drought, whereas a drought demise can come within one month to one season. A few strong rainfall episodes can end drought. The preferred season for the meteorological drought onset is at the beginning of the rainy season. Even though drought has a preferred season to begin, the ratio between the onset occurring in that season and the total drought events is less than 45%. For agricultural drought, the ratio is 60% or higher for the northwestern interior states and the Southwest. Over the Southern Plains, a cold El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event occurs one season before the onset of drought. No drought events occur during the warm ENSO years. Therefore, the occurrence of a cold ENSO event can serve as an early warning for drought. For other areas influenced by ENSO, such as the lower Mississippi basin, the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, the upper Missouri basin, and the Southeast, most drought events occur during ENSO. The one-to-one correspondence between ENSO and drought is not good. For these areas, ENSO can only serve as a signal for intensive drought watch.

Modelling the effects of land‐use/land‐cover changes on the near‐surface atmosphere in southern South America

AbstractA fully coupled atmospheric‐biospheric regional climate model, GEMRAMS, was used to evaluate potential effects of land‐use/land‐cover changes (LULCC) on near‐surface atmosphere over a southern South American domain at seasonal time scales. In GEMRAMS, leaf area index and canopy conductance are computed based on modelled temperature, solar radiation, and the water status of the soil and air, allowing a two‐way interaction between canopy and atmosphere. Several austral spring‐early summer simulations were conducted using land cover representing current (i.e. agricultural landscape), natural (i.e. before European settlement), and afforestation scenarios for three periods associated with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. The shift to agriculture resulted in a generalized increase in albedo, reducing the available energy at the near‐surface. (Correction added on 21 September 2011 after original online publication: in the preceding sentence the word ‘decrease’ was corrected to ‘increase’.) The energy partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes changed, leading to distinct temperature responses. A shift from grass to agriculture led to cooler and wetter near‐surface atmospheric conditions. Warmer temperatures resulted from the conversion of wooded grasslands or forest to agriculture. The LULCC‐induced signal was spatially heterogeneous and with a seasonal component associated with vegetation phenology. A significant decrease in maximum temperatures in the southern and central Pampas led to a decrease in the diurnal temperature range. Basing on some observational studies in this region our results suggest a potential strong influence of LULCC on the maximum temperatures in central Argentina in summer. Afforestation resulted overall in cooler temperatures. For both LULCC scenarios the direction of the energy fluxes and temperature changes remained in general the same in two extreme ENSO years, although for some vegetation conversions the signal reversed direction. Overall, the impacts were enhanced during a dry year, but the response also depended on the vegetation types involved in the conversion. The effects on precipitation were insignificant in the agriculture‐conversion scenario and a general increase was found in the afforested scenario. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Niño Events

Abstract This study is the first to identify a robust El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Niño events between 1979 and 2009 are classified as either conventional “cold tongue” events (positive SST anomalies in the Niño-3 region) or “warm pool” events (positive SST anomalies in the Niño-4 region). The 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), NCEP, and Modern Era Retrospective–Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Niño events. Consistent with previous studies, cold tongue events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During warm pool El Niño events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific convergence zone favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during September–November. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to warm pool El Niño events; the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.

Effect of nutrient availability on understory algae during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in Central Pacific Baja California

An experimental study of the effect of artificial nutrient supply on understory algae was made during 1997 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the Mexican Pacific coast of Baja California. Twelve quadrats of 1 m 2 were placed on the sea bed. Six quadrats were used as controls, and six were treatments with added artificial nutrients. Nutrients were supplied using polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes filled with slow-release inorganic fertilizer. The algae species composition and cover in each quadrat were estimated using the random point quadrat method. The percent of cover was tested using a multifactorial analysis of variance, and significant differences were obtained by post hoc Tukey's HSD test. The analysis was carried out annually, seasonally, and seasonal and monthly for each species. The seawater temperature was recorded, and compared with historical data. The bottom and surface seawater nitrate concentration were measured. Twenty-five species of macroalgae and one seagrass were identified. The most abundant species was Corallina vancouveriensis (�N=19.8% and +N=26.6% average cover). The other species had lower than 10% cover. Significant differences of species percent cover between experimental groups (+N andN) were detected in the annual analysis (p=0.059). Seasonal analysis did not showed significant differences for any season. Monthly analysis showed significant differ- ences in average percent cover when nutrients were added in eight species in different months: Bossiella orbigniana (August); Colpomenia sinuosa (June); Corallina officinalis (August); C. vancouveriensis (June); Dictyota flabellata (September); Eisenia arborea (June); Gracilaria marcia- lana (June); Macrocystis pyrifera (October), and the seagrass Phyllospadix torreyi (September and December). In conclusion, not all seaweed species are sensitive to nutrient addition during the ENSO years. In this research, we found eight species and one seagrass that had a positive reaction to the nutrients during the most severe stage (summer) of the ENSO.

Coral Cd/Ca and Mn/Ca records of ENSO variability in the Gulf of California

Abstract. We analyzed the trace element ratios Cd/Ca and Mn/Ca in three coral colonies (Porites panamensis (1967–1989), Pavona clivosa (1967–1989) and Pavona gigantea (1979–1989)) from Cabo Pulmo reef, Southern Gulf of California, Mexico, to assess the oceanographic changes caused by El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP). Interannual variations in the coral Cd/Ca and Mn/Ca ratios showed clear evidence that incorporation of Cd and Mn in the coral skeleton was influenced by ENSO conditions, but the response for each metal was controlled by different processes. The Mn/Ca ratios were significantly higher during ENSO years (p<0.05) relative to non-ENSO years for the three species of coral. In contrast, the Cd/Ca was systematically lower during ENSO years, but the difference was significant (p<0.05) only in Pavona gigantea. A decrease in the incorporation of Cd and a marked increase in Mn indicated strongly reduced vertical mixing in the Gulf of California during the mature phase of El Niño. The oceanic warming during El Niño events produces a relaxation of upwelling and a stabilization of the thermocline, which may act as a physical barrier limiting the transport of Cd from deeper waters into the surface layer. In turn, this oceanic condition can increase the residence time of particulate-Mn in surface waters, allowing an increase in the photo-reduction of particulate-Mn and the release of available Mn into the dissolved phase. These results support the use of Mn/Ca and Cd/Ca ratios in biogenic carbonates as tracers of increases in ocean stratification and trade wind weakening and/or collapse in the ETNP during ENSO episodes.

Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region

Seasonal mean values of tropical Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Atlantic/European Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) from a 301-year coupled ocean/atmosphere model run are analysed statistically. Relations between the two fields are identified on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. It is shown that tropical SST variability affects Atlantic/European MSLP in winter. In particular, there appears to be a statistically significant relation, between the leading modes of variability, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During cold ENSO (La Nina) years the NAO tends to be in its positive phase, while the opposite is the case during warm ENSO (El Nino) years, although to a lesser extent. Similar analyses that are presented for gridded observational data, confirm this result, although here tropical Atlantic SST appears to be stronger related to the NAO than tropical Pacific SST. The linear predictability of a model simulated NAO index is estimated by making statistical predictions that are based on model simulated tropical SST. It is shown that the predictive skill is rather insensitive to the length of the training period. On the other hand, the skill score estimate can vary significantly as a result of interdecadal variability in the climate system. These results are important to bear in mind when making statistical seasonal forecasts that are based on observed SST.

How Much Do Tropical Cyclones Affect Seasonal and Interannual Rainfall Variability over the Western North Pacific?

Abstract The authors investigate the effects of tropical cyclones (TCs) on seasonal and interannual rainfall variability over the western North Pacific (WNP) by using rainfall data at 22 stations. The TC-induced rainfall at each station is estimated by using station data when a TC is located within the influential radius (1000 km) from the station. The spatial–temporal variability of the proportion of TC rainfall is examined primarily along the east–west island chain near 10°N (between 7° and 13°N) and the north–south island chain near 125°E (between 120° and 130°E). Along 10°N the seasonality of total rainfall is mainly determined by non-TC rainfall that is influenced by the WNP monsoon trough. The proportion of the TC rain is relatively low. During the high TC season from July to December, TC rainfall accounts for 30% of the total rainfall in Guam, 15%–23% in Koror and Yap, and less than 10% at other stations. In contrast, along 125°E where the WNP subtropical high is located, the TC rainfall accounts for 50%–60% of the total rainfall between 18° and 26°N during the peak TC season from July to October. In Hualien of Taiwan, TC rainfall exceeds 60% of the total rainfall. The interannual variability of the TC rainfall and total rainfall is primarily modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Along 10°N, the ratio of TC rainfall versus total rainfall is higher than the climatology during developing and mature phases of El Niño (from March to the following January), whereas the ratio is below the climatology during the decaying phase of El Niño. The opposite is true for La Niña, except that the impact of La Niña is shorter in duration. Furthermore, in summer of El Niño developing years, the total seasonal rainfall increases primarily because of the increase of TC rainfall. In the ensuing autumn, an anticyclonic anomaly develops over the Philippine Sea and TC rainfall shifts eastward; as a result, the total rainfall over the Philippines and Taiwan decreases. The total rainfall to the east of 140°E, however, changes little, because the westward passage of TCs enhances TC rainfall, which offsets the decrease of non-TC rainfall. Along the meridional island chain between 120° and 130°E, the total rainfall anomaly is affected by ENSO starting from the autumn to the following spring, and the variation in TC rainfall dominates the total rainfall variation only in autumn (August–November) of ENSO years. The results from this study suggest that in the tropical WNP and subtropical East Asian monsoon regions (east of 120°E), the seasonal and interannual variations of rainfall are controlled by changes in nonlocal circulations. These changes outside the monsoon domain may substantially affect summer monsoon rainfall by changing TC genesis and tracks.

Defoliation and ENSO effects on vital rates of an understorey tropical rain forest palm

Summary 1. Rain forest understorey plants suffer leaf area losses due to natural causes or when leaves are harvested as non-timber forest products. The negative effects of defoliation on plant fitness can be exacerbated during periods with strong water shortage and high temperatures, typical during ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) years in Mexico and Central America. At present, the iso- lated and combined demographic effects of ENSO events and repeated defoliation on tropical rain forest plants are poorly understood. 2. We studied the consequences of repeated defoliation and an ENSO event on vital rates (mortal- ity, growth, and reproduction) of the dioecious understorey palm Chamaedorea elegans .F rom March 1997 to March 2000 (including the 1998 ENSO year), we subjected 814 mature individuals to one of five defoliation treatments (0-100% of newly produced leaves were removed twice a year), recording mortality, growth (leaf production) and reproduction (inflorescence and seed production) every 6 months. 3. Increasing defoliation strongly reduced reproduction but had smaller effects on growth and mor- tality. Among non-defoliated palms, the probability of mortality increased with light availability, likely due to drought stress during the dry season, but this was not the case for the defoliated plants, probably because leaf area removal lowered transpiration and increased the root mass-to-leaf area ratio. During the ENSO year, growth and inflorescence production were stimulated, but survivor- ship and seed production diminished significantly, independent of defoliation level. 4. Synthesis. Variation in light availability and the occurrence of severe droughts can strongly affect demographic behaviour of understorey plants such as C. elegans, significantly influencing the effects of defoliation. Thus, strong episodic disturbance events (such as ENSO, insect outbreaks, strong storms, fires and landslides) should be taken into account to adequately understand the mechanisms that determine the population dynamics of forest plants and the potential for sustainable utilization of non-timber forest products.

Hindcasts of Tropical Atlantic SST Gradient and South American Precipitation: The Influences of the ENSO Forcing and the Atlantic Preconditioning

Abstract Hindcast experiments for the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient G1, defined as tropical North Atlantic SST anomaly minus tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly, are performed using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean over the Atlantic to quantify the contributions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and the preconditioning in the Atlantic to G1 in boreal spring. The results confirm previous observational analyses that, in the years with a persistent ENSO SST anomaly from boreal winter to spring, the ENSO forcing plays a primary role in determining the tendency of G1 from winter to spring and the sign of G1 in late spring. In the hindcasts, the initial perturbations in Atlantic SST in boreal winter are found to generally persist beyond a season, leaving a secondary but nonnegligible contribution to the predicted Atlantic SST gradient in spring. For 1993/94, a neutral year with a large preexisting G1 in winter, the hindcast using the information of Atlantic preconditioning alone is found to reproduce the observed G1 in spring. The seasonal predictability in precipitation over South America is examined in the hindcast experiments. For the recent events that can be validated with high-quality observations, the hindcasts produced dryness in boreal spring 1983, wetness in spring 1996, and wetness in spring 1994 over northern Brazil that are qualitatively consistent with observations. An inclusion of the Atlantic preconditioning is found to help the prediction of South American rainfall in boreal spring. For the ENSO years, discrepancies remain between the hindcast and observed precipitation anomalies over northern and equatorial South America, an error that is partially attributed to the biased atmospheric response to ENSO forcing in the model. The hindcast of the 1993/94 neutral year does not suffer this error. It constitutes an intriguing example of useful seasonal forecast of G1 and South American rainfall anomalies without ENSO.

Eddy Energy along the Tropical Storm Track in Association with ENSO

The interaction between the seasonal mean circulation and the transient eddies over the western North Pacific (WNP) during El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and cold years was investigated by the three- dimensional eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) budget equations for total eddy, high-frequency (< 10 days) and low-frequency (20-70 days) components. Composites of the energy results indicate that low-level anomalous cyclonic circulation, westerly jet and ascending motion associated with the east- ward extension of warm SST during warm ENSO years are favorable for eddy barotropic energy conversion (CK) and eddy baroclinic energy conversions (CE). The enhancement of CK and CE might provide kinetic en- ergy for the growth of high- and low-frequency transient eddies including tropical storms (TSs) from the Philip- pine Sea to the date line over the tropical WNP during warm ENSO years. In contrast, high- and low-frequency eddies convert EKE to seasonal mean circulation over the subtropical and mid-latitude WNP during warm years. Enhanced eddy baroclinic energy conversion plays an important role in the maintenance and enhancement of the subsequent development of transient eddies including TSs as they propagate northward. The loss of EAPE to EKE due to the eddy baroclinic energy conversion is mainly supplemented by the gener- ation of EAPE associated with eddy diabatic heating. However, the energy conversion from mean available po- tential energy (MAPE) to EAPE is also important due to the eddy vertical heat transport which is neglected in the two-dimensional EAPE budget equation. It is suggested that high- and low-frequency eddies including TSs may be self-development and intensify through their enhanced diabatic heating and vertical heat transport.

A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change

Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Nino (La Nina) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Nina event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO recon- struction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Nino and La Nina phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.

Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on precipitation in the eastern USA during ENSO winters

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively, dominate global and Northern Hemispheric climate variability on interannual timescales. Statistical and composite analyses of historical climate records between 1899 and 2007 reveal a strong influence of the AO on eastern USA winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the Pacific/North American (PNA) region during ENSO years. Records of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height field show the AO to exert greatest effect on El Nino-related climate. The presence of a strong northwardly displaced polar front jet and a well- developed Bermuda high during months when the AO is positive promotes the influx of warm and moist air from the western Atlantic into the study area, significantly enhancing winter El Nino- related precipitation in the southeast USA. Negative phases of the AO that coincide with El Ninos deepen the lows over the North Pacific and diminish the influence of the Bermuda high on the east- ern USA. This modification enhances the influx of northerly air into the study area, bringing unsea- sonably dry winters to the Midwest and the Ohio Valley. The presence of the negative phase of the AO returns the wintertime circulation and SPI regimes to near-normal values throughout the study area during La Nina winters, whereas no appreciable effects on La Nina-related circulation and SPI regimes are noted when AO becomes positive. The interaction between ENSO and the AO helps to account for the inter-ENSO variability of climate teleconnections across the PNA region, possibly enhancing our ability to provide better winter climate forecasts across the eastern United States during ENSO episodes.

Extended ENSO Predictions Using a Fully Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model

Abstract Using a fully coupled global ocean–atmosphere general circulation model assimilating only sea surface temperature, the authors found for the first time that several El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the past two decades can be predicted at lead times of up to 2 yr. The El Niño condition in the 1997/98 winter can be predicted to some extent up to about a 1½-yr lead but with a weak intensity and large phase delay in the prediction of the onset of this exceptionally strong event. This is attributed to the influence of active and intensive stochastic westerly wind bursts during late 1996 to mid-1997, which are generally unpredictable at seasonal time scales. The cold signals in the 1984/85 and 1999/2000 winters during the peak phases of the past two long-lasting La Niña events are predicted well up to a 2-yr lead. Amazingly, the mild El Niño–like event of 2002/03 is also predicted well up to a 2-yr lead, suggesting a link between the prolonged El Niño and the tropical Pacific decadal variability. Seasonal climate anomalies over vast parts of the globe during specific ENSO years are also realistically predicted up to a 2-yr lead for the first time.

‘Splendid rains have fallen’: links between El Niño and rainfall variability in the Kalahari, 1840–1900

This study uses a range of published and unpublished historical documentary sources to explore the nature of rainfall variability in the Kalahari Desert and adjacent hardveld regions of central southern Africa during the seventeen Pacific El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes that occurred between 1840 and 1900. Documentary data are used in two ways. First, maps of relative annual rainfall levels are presented for each of the 12 single-year and five protracted ENSO episodes during the period, in order to identify the associated inter-annual rainfall variations. These suggest that the relationship between ENSO episodes and rainfall variability identified for the twentieth century, whereby warm events are frequently preceded by wetter conditions during the austral summer prior to the event year and succeeded by drought in the following summer, has broadly held for much of the last 160 years. This is despite the long-term fluctuations in precipitation and temperature which are known to have occurred over this period. Droughts are identified following at least thirteen of the 17 single-year and protracted ENSO episodes. Pre-ENSO wetter periods are less common, with only nine of the ENSO episodes preceded by above-normal rainfall. Second, the documentary data are analyzed in detail in order to reveal any evidence for high resolution intra-annual variations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall during ENSO events. Seasonal sequences of rainfall/drought appear to have closely followed contemporary patterns, with heavy rainfall commonly occurring late in the pre-ENSO year or early in the ENSO year(s), and drought at the start of the post-ENSO year. This relationship can be seen to hold most strongly for single-year ENSO warm events and for the first year of protracted events, but rainfall conditions were more variable during the later years of protracted events.

Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions

Abstract Understory fires, which burn the floor of standing forests, are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, the authors are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. In this paper, the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region is calculated during an El Niño (1998) and a non–El Niño (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazonia, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non-ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 × 106 ha) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 × 106 ha), and twice the area of annual deforestation. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest type most affected by understory fires during the El Niño year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. The estimate here of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.049 to 0.329 Pg during the ENSO and from 0.003 to 0.021 Pg during the non-ENSO year.

Understanding the predictability of seasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Using multiple long-term simulations of the Center for Ocean—Land—Atmosphere Studies (COLA) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST), it is shown that the model has high skill in simulating the February—March-April (FMA) rainy season over northeast Brazil (Nordeste). Separate sensitivity experiments conducted with the same model that entails suppression of all variability except for the climatological annual cycle in SST over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans reveal that this skill over Nordeste is sensitive to SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, the spatial pattern of SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that correlate with FMA Nordeste rainfall are in fact a manifestation of El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean.This study also analyzes the failure of the COLA AGCM in capturing the correct FMA precipitation anomalies over Nordeste in several years of the simulation. It is found that this failure occurs when the SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean are large and not significantly correlated with contemporaneous SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean. In two of the relatively large ENSO years when the model failed to capture the correct signal of the interannual variability of precipitation over Nordeste, it was found that the meridional gradient of SST anomalies over the tropical Atlantic Ocean was inconsistent with the canonical development of ENSO. The analysis of the probabilistic skill of the model revealed that it has more skill in predicting flood years than drought. Furthermore, the model has no skill in predicting normal seasons. These model features are consistent with the model systematic errors.

Long-term changes in the mean trophic level of Central Chile fishery landings

We explore long-term changes in the mean trophic level ( TLm ) of Central Chile fishery landings, using a 21 years data series (1979-1999) of official landings (Chilean Fisheries Service) of 16 species that comprise about 95% of total landing, and their corresponding trophic level estimated using gut content analysis and a trophic model of the Central Chile marine ecosystem. Because total landings off Central Chile have been strongly influenced by landings of horse mackerel ( Trachurus symmetricus ), which is a trans-zonal fishery resource (sensu FAO), and the periodic occurrence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the study area, we explore changes in TLm both excluding landings of horse mackerel and excluding landings in ENSO years. When landings of horse mackerel are excluded, a significant decline in TLm is found, at a rate of 0.175 per decade, which is higher than the global rate of 0.10 estimated by Pauly et al. (1998). Fisheries in Central Chile seem to have been fishing down the food web as the result of fishery-induced changes, since ENSO events do not seem to have induced a significant effect in this trend. Therefore, we suggest that landings of horse mackerel have masked the fishing down the food web process in local fisheries.