El Nino-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon Research Articles

Combined influence of PDO and ENSO on northern Andean glaciers: a case study on the Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano, Ecuador

This paper describes the application of remote sensing in monitoring the fluctuations in one of the mountain glaciers in the Ecuadorean Andes during the past few decades using ASTER, EO-1 ALI, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM + images. Satellite images were used to calculate the snow line altitudes (SLAs) during the period 1979–2013. Cotopaxi ice covered volcano was studied as representative of Ecuadorian glaciers in the eastern cordillera. Precipitation and air temperature data from various gauging stations within the range of 30 km from the study site and monthly discharge and water level data from a gauging station were also utilized in this study. Anomalies in precipitation and temperature were found to be slightly different in the Cotopaxi region compared to nearby Antizana in the same cordillera and Chimborazo region in the western cordillera. An attempt to correlate the El Nino—southern oscillation phenomenon with the glacier fluctuations in Ecuadorian Andes was done successfully. Cold and warm regimes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also considered. The calculated glacier fluctuations obtained were similar to that performed on the nearby Antizana 15 in the eastern cordillera during 1995–2002. Precipitation and temperature anomalies were similar with Antizana 15. It is evident from the research that SLAs were highly fluctuated between the period of occurrence of El Nino and La Nina events. It is also seen that the glacier fluctuations show a negative mass balance trend in during the warm regime of Pacific Decadal Oscillation during the past three decades. Glaciated areas were advanced during the La Nina events in the cold regime of PDO during 1998–2002.

How does the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole trigger the tropical Indian Ocean dipole via the Mascarene high?

The variation in the Indian Ocean is investigated using Hadley center sea surface temperature (SST) data during the period 1958-2010. All the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the SST anomalies (SSTA) in different domains represent the basin-wide warming and are closely related to the Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Further examination suggests that the impact of ENSO on the tropical Indian Ocean is stronger than that on the southern Indian Ocean. The second EOF modes in different domains show different features. It shows a clear east-west SSTA dipole pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean dipole, IOD), and a southwest-northeast SSTA dipole in the southern Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean subtropical dipole, IOSD). It is further revealed that the IOSD is also the main structure of the second EOF mode on the whole basin-scale, in which the IOD pattern does not appear. A correlation analysis indicates that an IOSD event observed during the austral summer is highly correlated to the IOD event pealdng about 9 months later. One of the possible physical mechanisms underlying this highly significant statistical relationship is proposed. The IOSD and the IOD can occur in sequence with the help of the Mascarene high. The SSTA in the southwestern Indian Ocean persists for several seasons after the mature phase of the IOSD event, likely due to the positive wind-evaporation-SST feedback mechanism. The Mascarene high will be weakened or intensified by this SSTA, which can affect the atmosphere in the tropical region by teleconnection. The pressure gradient between the Mascarene high and the monsoon trough in the tropical Indian Ocean increases (decreases). Hence, an anticyclone (cyclone) circulation appears over the Arabian Sea-India continent. The easterly or westerly anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean, inducing the onset stage of the IOD. This study shows that the SSTA associated with the IOSD can lead to the onset of IOD with the aid of atmosphere circulation and also explains why some IOD events in the tropical tend to be followed by IOSD in the southern Indian Ocean.

A theoretical investigation of the tropical Indo-Pacific tripole mode

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the tropical Pacific has been a focus of ocean and climate studies in the last few decades. Recently, the short-term climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean has attracted increasingly more attention, especially with the proposition of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. However, these phenomena are often studied separately without much consideration of their interaction. Observations reveal a striking out-of-phase relationship between zonal gradients of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Since the two oceans share the ascending branch of the Walker cells over the warm pool, the variation within one of them will affect the other. The accompanied zonal surface wind anomalies are always opposite over the two basins, thus producing a tripole structure with opposite zonal gradients of SSHA/SSTA in the two oceans. This mode of variability has been referred to as Indo-Pacific Tripole (IPT). Based on observational data analyses and a simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model, this study tries to identify the characteristics and physical mechanism of IPT with a particular emphasis on the relationships among ENSO, IOD, and IPT. The model includes the basic oceanic and atmospheric variables and the feedbacks between them, and takes into account the inter-basin connection through an atmospheric bridge, thus providing a valuable framework for further research on the short-term tropical climate variability.

Formation and variability of the South Pacific Sea Surface Salinity maximum in recent decades

This study investigates causes for the formation and variability of the Sea Surface Salinity maximum (SSS > 36) centered near 18°S-124°W in the South Pacific Ocean over the 1990-2011 period at the seasonal time scale and above. We use two monthly gridded products of SSS based on in situ measurements, high-resolution along-track Voluntary Observing Ships thermo-salinograph data, new SMOS satellite data, and a validated ocean general circulation model with no direct SSS relaxation. All products reveal a seasonal cycle of the location of the 36-isohaline barycenter of about ±400 km in longitude in response to changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone location and Easterly winds intensity. They also show a low frequency westward shift of the barycenter of 1400 km from the mid 1990s to the early 2010s that could not be linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomena. In the model, the processes maintaining the 22 year equilibrium of the high salinity in the mixed layer are the surface forcing (˜+0.73 pss/yr), the horizontal salinity advection (˜-0.37 pss/yr), and processes occurring at the mixed layer base (˜-0.35 pss/yr).

Impact of ENSO on River Flows in Guyana

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a natural part of the global climate system resulting from the interactions between large-scale ocean atmospheric circulation processes in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans. In Guyana, for all the adverse weather and extreme hydrological events, the blame goes to El Nino or La Nina. This paper investigates the relationship between ENSO and three Guyanese river flows; the Demarara, Essequibo and Mazaruni. This work sheds some light on the effects of this phenomenon on these river flows which may be useful for the adaptation policies dealing with the impacts of ENSO.

Análisis climático de la precipitación anual e interanual en la cuenca media del río Grande de San Ramón, Costa Rica

Se investigan tres sectores ubicados en la Cuenca media del río Grande de San Ramón en Costa Rica que a pesar de encontrarse muy cerca unos de otros, éstos muestran variaciones espacio temporales en la precipitación anual e interanual. Dicha variación se atribuye a patrones de circulación atmosféricos que influyen anualmente, produciendo fuertes precipitaciones durante unos años, mientras que en otros, se da más bien una disminución. Pareciera que existe una mayor probabilidad que ocurran promedios bajos de precipitación anual durante los años El Niño y promedios altos durante los años La Niña. De esta forma, la fase cálida es más marcada en aquellos lugares de topografía plana, en valles, que tienen una mayor influencia marítima y de corrientes de viento, como son los casos de Palmares y San Ramón, no así el caso de Naranjo que se ubica en las faldas de la Sección de la Cordillera Volcánica Central. Por lo tanto, se manifiestan variaciones en distancias cortas, o sea no se muestra un comportamiento homogéneo aún en regiones pequeñas.

On the relationship between ENSO patterns and winter precipitation over North and Central India

The inter-annual variability of seasonal precipitation over India strongly depends upon the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The ENSO is anti-correlated with Indian summer monsoon (ISM). While, the Indian north-east monsoon, and the north and central India winter precipitation (NCIWP) are correlated with ENSO. Previous studies have shown that the strength of the ISM–ENSO teleconnection is quite dependent on the zonal position of the El Nino warming. Similarly, in this study it has been found that, the NCIWP depends upon the warming of the eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino rather than the central Pacific (CP) El Nino. The EP El Nino warms the western Indian Ocean during the winter season which intensifies the Hadley cell with its subsidence over central India. The sinking motion over central India shifts and intensifies the sub-tropical westerly jet (SWJ) over northern India. The SWJ intensifies the frequent surges in mid-latitude, called western disturbances (WDs) which, results in excess precipitation over the north and central India. Also, the subsidence over central India leads to lower level cyclonic circulation over central Indian landmass, which converges winds from warm Arabian Sea to north India supplying with abundant moisture for the WDs.

On the recent global mean sea level changes: Trend extraction and El Niño's impact

The spatial sampling offered by TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimeters and its continuity during the last twenty years are major assets to provide an improved vision of the global mean sea level (GMSL). The objective of this paper is to examine the recent GMSL variations (1993–2012) and to investigate the correlation between the GMSL and ENSO (El Niño-southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, a mean sea level anomalies time series, obtained from TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 measurements, is used to determine the trend of GMSL changes by using a simplified form of an unobserved components model (namely UCM). Then, to investigate the impact of the ENSO phenomenon on the GMSL changes, we considered the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3 region (5N–5S 150W–90W). Cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis are performed to expose common power between the GMSL changes and the SSTA index and their relative phase in the time–frequency space. The results indicate that there are in the estimated GMSL's trend a number of fluctuations over short periods that are least partly related to the El Niño/La Niña episodes. Cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis indicate that a significant correlation between GMSL and ENSO occurred during 1997–1998, 2006–2007, 2009–2010 El Niño events and 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 La Niña ones. All these areas show in-phase relationship, suggesting that GMSL and SSTA index vary synchronously.

Risk Assessment of Hydroclimatic Variability on Groundwater Levels in the Manjara Basin Aquifer in India Using Archimedean Copulas

AbstractIn this paper, a bivariate-copula-based methodology is presented to assess the risk associated with hydroclimatic variability on groundwater levels in an unconfined aquifer at the Manjara basin in India. Rank correlation analysis is used to identify the association between the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, precipitation, and groundwater levels. It is found that the dependencies among the hydroclimatic variable pairs are statistically significant and the dependence structure can be modeled by using bivariate Archimedean copulas. The groundwater level or depth-to-groundwater table (DGWT) in the study region is found to be responsive toward interannual precipitation variations that are influenced by the ENSO phenomenon. For probabilistic representation of hydroclimate variables, various probability distributions are evaluated and it is found that the precipitation and DGWT are best fitted using lognormal and Weibull distributions, respectively, whereas the ENSO index is best fitted using...

Interannual variability of solar energy generation in Australia

Australia has an abundant solar energy resource that is likely to be used for energy generation on a large scale. Variable sources of electricity generation require knowledge of the nature of their variability at all time scales. This study examines the effect that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have on solar radiation in Australia, in order to establish the role for seasonal forecasting of solar power. Calendar years are classified into their ENSO state using a sea surface temperature index. The ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalysis products are then used to estimate the effect of ENSO on global horizontal solar irradiance over the continent. A bootstrap technique is used to obtain confidence regions for the effect in both winter and summer. The main impact of ENSO occurs during winter over a large part of eastern Australia. Little impact was observed over the continent during summer. A similar analysis is conducted for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to ensure that the observed ENSO effect is not a manifestation of the IOD. This study indicates that the ENSO phenomenon may account for solar energy changes of more than 10% in some locations on a seasonal basis. We show that the solar radiation analysis is directly applicable to solar energy yield. Knowledge of this variability may influence the location of large solar generation plants. Also, there is a potential to predict solar energy a few months ahead by means of seasonal forecasting systems, which would help to assist with planning for electricity grid.

A multiscalar global evaluation of the impact of ENSO on droughts

[1] In this study we analyzed the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on drought severity at the global scale. A unique aspect of the analysis is that the ENSO influence was quantified using a multiscalar drought indicator, which allowed assessment of the role of the ENSO phases on drought types affecting various hydrological, agricultural and environmental systems. The study was based on ENSO composites corresponding to El Nino and La Nina phases, which were obtained from the winter El Nino 3.4 index for the period 1901–2006. Drought was identified in a multiscalar way using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the global SPEIbase data set. The study revealed the differing impacts of the El Nino and La Nina phases on drought severity, the time scales of droughts, and the period of the year when the ENSO phases explained drought variability worldwide. In large areas of America and eastern Europe the role of ENSO events were evident at the shortest time scales (1–3 months) at the beginning of events, but in areas of South Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia the effects were more obvious some months later, and at longer time scales. We also identified areas where severe drought conditions are associated with more than 70% of ENSO events. The persistence of the drought signal at longer time-scales (e.g., 6- or 12-months) is not directly determined by the atmospheric circulation response to the SST anomalies, since the SPEI anomalies will be caused by the cumulative dry conditions in some specific months. Knowledge of how these effects differ as a function of the El Nino and La Nina phases, and how they propagate throughout the drought time scales could aid in the prediction of the expected drought severity associated with the ENSO. Lags detected during the study may help forecasting of dry conditions in some regions up to one year before their occurrence.

Interannual variability and predictability of water table levels at Santa Fe Province (Argentina) within the climatic change context

Summary In recent times, significant areas of the Northeastern Argentine (NEA) have been affected by climatic fluctuations which have caused serious damages in ecosystems and people’s livehoods, both by floods and droughts. This has mainly occurred in the Santa Fe Province, having a great impact on the underlying unconfined aquifer. This paper analyzes the relationships between meteorological variability and water table levels in the context of climate variability and climatic change in the lower Carcarana river experimental basin (about 4700 km 2 ), located in the Santa Fe Province. The goal of the study is to obtain long-term (interannual) predictions of water table levels in the region. The methodology used responds to a hypothetical conception of the temporal series having a signal formed by random components with characteristics of white noise. Singular Spectral Analysis ( SSA ), among other non-parametric techniques were used to identify fluctuations and trend changes in climatic time-series. These characteristics provide valuable information for the evaluation of climatic evolution and for the detection of variations in this evolution, suggesting a climatic change either by natural mechanisms or by anthropogenic impacts. A positive trend in precipitation is found throughout the studied region with water table levels showing a similar spatial–temporal behavior. The SSA gives significant periodicities between 3 and 8 years showing a possible link between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and precipitation and water table levels. The periodicities linked with ENSO are always present and the structures of the series are similar for the different studied periods. The results obtained, even if they are experimental constitute a first approximation. In general, they are promising, since the generated basis will enable to face further and more complex stages.

Role of intra-seasonal oscillations in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The day-to-day behavior of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (IMR) is associated with a hierarchy of quasi-periods, namely 3–7, 10–20 and the 30–60 days. These two periods, the 10–20 days and the 30–60 days have been related with the active and break cycles of the monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent. The seasonal strength of Indian summer monsoon rainfall may depend on the frequency and duration of spells of break and active periods associated with the fluctuations of the above intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs). Thus the predictability of the seasonal (June through September) mean Indian monsoon depends on the extent to which the intra-seasonal oscillations could be predicted. The primary objective of this study is to bring out the dynamic circulation features during the pre-monsoon/monsoon season associated with the extreme phases of these oscillations The intense (weak) phase of the 10–20 (30–60) days oscillation is associated with anti-cyclonic circulation over the Indian Ocean, easterly flow over the equatorial Pacific Ocean resembling the normal or cold phase (La Nina) of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and weakening of the north Pacific Sub-tropical High. On the other hand the weak phase of 10–20 days mode and the intense phase of 30–60 days mode shows remarkable opposite flow patterns. The circulation features during pre-monsoon months show that there is a tendency for the flow patterns observed in pre-monsoon months to persist during the monsoon months. Hence some indications of the behavior of these modes during the monsoon season could be foreshadowed from the spring season patterns. The relationship between the intensity of these modes and some of the long-range forecasting parameters used operationally by the India Meteorological Department has also been examined.

How dynamical models can learn from the data—an example with a simplified ENSO model

Most dynamical models of the natural system contain a number of empirical parameters which reflect our limited understanding of the simulated system or describe unresolved subgrid-scale processes. While the parameterizations basically introduce some uncertainty to the model results, they also hold the prospect of tuning the model. In general, a deterministic tuning is related to an inversion of the model which is often impossible or requires considerable computing effort for most climate models. Another way to adjust the model parameters to a specific observed process is stochastic fitting where a set of parameters and model output are taken as random variables. Here, we present a dynamical–statistical approach with a simplified model of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle whose parameters are adjusted to simulated and observed data by means of Bayesian statistics. As ENSO model, we employ the Schop–Suarez delay oscillator model. Monte Carlo experiments highlight the large sensitivity of the model results to varied model parameters and initial values. The statistical adjustment is done by Bayesian model averaging of the Monte Carlo experiments. Applying the method to simulated data, the posterior ensemble mean is much closer to the reference data than the prior ensemble mean. The learning effect of the model is evident in the leading empirical orthogonal functions and statistically significant in the mean state. When the method is applied to the observed ENSO time series, the ENSO model in its classical setup is not able to account for the temporally varying periodicity of the observed ENSO phenomenon. An improved setup with continuous adjustment periods and extended parameter range is developed in order to allow the model to learn from the data gradually. The improved setup leads to promising results during the twentieth century and even a weak forecast skill over 6 months. Thus, the described method offers a promising tool for data assimilation in dynamical weather and climate models. However, the simplified ENSO model is barely appropriate for operational ENSO forecasts owing to its limited physical complexity.

Effects of precipitation and temperature on crop production variability in northeast Iran

Climate variability adversely impacts crop production and imposes a major constraint on farming planning, mostly under rainfed conditions, across the world. Considering the recent advances in climate science, many studies are trying to provide a reliable basis for climate, and subsequently agricultural production, forecasts. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) is one of the principle sources of interannual climatic variability. In Iran, primarily in the northeast, rainfed cereal yield shows a high annual variability. This study investigated the role played by precipitation, temperature and three climate indices [Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NINO 3.4] in historically observed rainfed crop yields (1983-2005) of both barley and wheat in the northeast of Iran. The results revealed differences in the association between crop yield and climatic factors at different locations. The south of the study area is a very hot location, and the maximum temperature proved to be the limiting and determining factor for crop yields; temperature variability resulted in crop yield variability. For the north of the study area, NINO 3.4 exhibited a clear association trend with crop yields. In central locations, NAO provided a solid basis for the relationship between crop yields and climate factors.

Why Is ENSO Influencing Northwest India Winter Precipitation in Recent Decades?

AbstractThis study examines decadal changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the interannual variability of northwest India winter precipitation (NWIWP). The analysis is based on correlations and regressions performed using India Meteorological Department (IMD) records based on station data and reanalysis fields from 1950 to 2008. The authors find that the interannual variability of NWIWP is influenced by the ENSO phenomenon in the recent decades. This conclusion is supported by a consistency across the different observational datasets employed in this study and confirmed by numerical modeling. A physical mechanism for such an influence is proposed, by which western disturbances (WDs) are intensified over northwest India because of a baroclinic response due to Sverdrup balance related to large-scale sinking motion over the western Pacific during the warm phase of ENSO. This response causes an upper-level cyclonic circulation anomaly north of India and a low-level anticyclonic anomaly over southern and central India. The cyclonic circulation anomaly intensifies the WDs passing over northwest India.

A wavelet cross-spectral analysis of solar–ENSO–rainfall connections in the Indian monsoons

The possible connections between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and Indian monsoon rainfall have been widely discussed in the meteorological literature. We show strong statistical evidence here for connections of ENSO with solar activity. This is particularly evident in a comparison between the two contrasting test periods of 1878–1913 and 1933–1964, representing three complete cycles of lowest and highest solar activity respectively since 1850. Wavelet statistical analysis reveals that the link between solar activity and ENSO is generally stronger than that between ENSO and rainfall but only slightly weaker than that between solar activity and rainfall. Over the two test periods an increase in solar activity is associated with a decrease in ENSO indices and an increase in the monsoon rainfall in the 8–16 y period band. In the 2–7 y period band the effects vary with region. The net effect of solar processes on rainfall thus appears to be the result of counteracting or cooperating influences on shorter (about 5–6 y) and longer (about 11–12 y) time scales, the latter on the whole dominating over the former. The present analysis thus suggests that the influence of solar processes on Indian rainfall operates in part indirectly through ENSO, but on more than one time scale.

Interannual variability in the longitudinal structure of the low-latitude ionosphere due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

[1] The ratio of monthly median foF2 values between the ionosondes at Maui (20.8°N, −156°E geographic; 21.2°N, −90.4°E geomagnetic) and Yamagawa (31.2°N, 130.6°E geographic; 20.6°N, −160.9°E geomagnetic) from January 1960 to June 1993 are used to investigate interannual variability in the wave-4 longitudinal structure of the low-latitude F region ionosphere. Analysis of Global Positioning System total electron content between January 1998 and December 2008 reveals that the ratio between these two locations is a suitable proxy for the amplitude of the wave-4 longitudinal structure in the Northern Hemisphere. Significant interannual variability is present in the foF2 ratio after removing the solar cycle and intra-annual variability. The remaining variability is thought to be due, in part, to changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulations arising from the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Wavelet analysis reveals that similar periodicities and occurrence times exist for the foF2 ratio monthly anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies, represented by the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). Furthermore, the yearly ONI extreme value is well correlated with the extreme value of the foF2 ratio monthly anomalies in the subsequent 5 months. This surprising connection is attributed to changes in tropospheric convection, and hence latent heating, associated with changing sea surface temperatures due to the ENSO. Changing distributions of latent heat tidal forcing are thought to induce changes in the strength of the upward and eastward propagating diurnal tide with zonal wave number s = −3 (DE3) which subsequently produces the observed changes in the amplitude of the wave-4 longitudinal structure through modulation of the electric fields generated by the dynamo mechanism in the ionospheric E region. Our results demonstrate that there is significant interannual variability in the ionospheric wave-4 longitudinal structure and further indicate that the ENSO phenomenon represents a source of ionospheric variability which has previously not been considered.

Value of perfect ENSO phase predictions for agriculture: evaluating the impact of land tenure and decision objectives

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers.

Trends in spatio‐temporal variability in annual rainfall in Ghana (1951‐2000)

Rainfall variability in humid West Africa (south of 8oN) is less studied than that of the Sahelian zone, the data for which are responsible for the general consensus of a downward rainfall trend in West Africa over the last few decades. Such a generalization may not be useful for modelling and planning purposes. Rainfall mechanisms in the drier Sahel and the humid Guinea Coast region differ; the former region has a single rainfall peak (in summer) but the latter region has a bi-modal seasonal distribution. It is therefore not necessarily true that a failure in the rainfall regime in one zone – and its subsequent impact on agriculture and livelihood – means the same for the other. In fact, it has been observed that a warmer South Atlantic is associated with more rainfall in the Guinea Coast region and less rainfall in the Sahel (Gu and Adler, 2003). It is also suggested that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) may be more strongly associated with Sahelian rainfall than with that of the Guinea Coast region (Ward et al., 2004). Therefore there is a need to investigate rainfall trends and variability in the humid areas to better inform agricultural decision-makers. Agricultural productivity has decreased in recent decades following declining rainfall since the early 1970s, with the rainfall showing signs of improvement after 2000. This analysis will contribute to the knowledge of rainfall trends and aid in agricultural and allied industrial decision-making in this important agroclimatic zone. The study utilizes annual rainfall totals over 50 years to identify the spatial and temporal dimensions of rainfall variability in Ghana by comparing the characteristics of the period 1951 to 1970 and 1981 to 2000, hereafter referred to as P1 and P2 respectively. Specific emphasis is placed on the subhumid area of midGhana because of its national and regional significance to agricultural production and food security. Rainfall variability in Ghana