El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events Research Articles

Understanding the Driving Forces of the North Pacific Victoria Mode

Abstract The Victoria Mode (VM) is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific. It is independent of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and represents the second climate mode of North Pacific variability. Using a first-order autoregressive model and forcing indices that track the Aleutian low, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), anomalous ocean circulation in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE), and the cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this study reconstructs the North Pacific SSTAs and examines the relative contributions of different forcing mechanisms to the VM variance. It is found that the NPO and ENSO, especially the WP ENSO, are the dominant sources of VM variability, whereas the contributions of the Aleutian low and zonal advection in the KOE region are relatively small. Further analysis shows that the forcing mechanisms acting on the VM are frequency dependent. At decadal and longer time scales, the VM variance comes mainly from the WP ENSO, whereas at interannual-time-scale contributions from the NPO and CT ENSO are important. This study suggests that the VM is an oceanic response to the NPO forcing and atmospheric teleconnections excited by ENSO events.

Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Intensity of Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic‐Scale Disturbances During Boreal Summer

AbstractPresent study analyzes diverse impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the intensity of synoptic‐scale disturbances (SSDs) over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) during boreal summer. Asymmetric changes in the SSD intensity are detected in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) developing summers. The increase in the SSD intensity is larger and located more eastward in EN developing summers compared to the decrease in LN developing summers. The asymmetric SSD intensity changes are associated with an eastward shift of anomalous low‐level cyclone and mid‐level ascent during EN developing summers relative to opposite anomalies during LN developing summers. The above difference is attributed to zonally asymmetric anomalous equatorial central‐eastern Pacific heating and cooling in EN and LN years. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model illustrate that the major reason for asymmetric TWNP SSD intensity changes is the asymmetric atmospheric response to opposite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in EN and LN years. Comparisons between strong and moderate ENSO events show an obvious dependence of the SSD intensity change on the amplitude of EN, but not on the amplitude of LN. This indicates a stronger sensitivity to warmer SST than to colder SST. The enhancement of the TWNP SSD intensity is confined to a more westward longitude in Central than Eastern Pacific EN years with a comparable magnitude.

Atmospheric–Oceanic Processes over the Pacific Involved in the Effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO

Abstract This study investigates the physical mechanisms responsible for the impacts of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a focus on understanding the monsoon-induced Pacific air–sea interactive processes. An observational analysis displays that a weaker-than-normal ISM can strengthen an ongoing El Niño event and weaken a La Niña event, and conversely for a stronger-than-normal ISM. A 1000-yr output from the Community Earth System Model version 2 is capable of reproducing this observed feature and is therefore used to explore the responsible ocean–atmosphere interactive processes involved. Results show that a weak ISM can cause a cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific via stimulating atmospheric cold Kelvin waves, and conversely for a strong ISM. The westerly (easterly) wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) generate eastward (westward) current anomalies in the mixed layer and thus induce anomalous warm (cold) zonal advection. Furthermore, the wind anomalies excite oceanic downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves, which deepen (shoal) the thermocline in the equatorial eastern Pacific and result in anomalous warm (cold) vertical advection. A quantitative mixed layer heat budget analysis demonstrates that the influence of the monsoon-induced Pacific wind anomalies on ENSO is mainly achieved by changing the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback. This result is confirmed by model sensitivity experiments in which additional monsoon heating or cooling anomalies are imposed over the Indian region during the developing summer of an ENSO event. Significance Statement While previous studies have reported that the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) could influence the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this study is aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms for the Pacific air–sea interactive processes induced by the monsoon and their impact on ENSO. It is found that a weak and strong ISM can respectively induce an anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. The wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous circulation mainly change the zonal advective feedback and the thermocline feedback to affect ENSO development. This study provides a detailed physical explanation of how the ISM influences ENSO evolution.

New insights into potential effects of solar activity on the oxygen isotope composition of modern speleothems: Observations from Jiguan Cave, central China II

The oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O) of stalagmites have been widely used to reconstruct summer monsoon variability, which is primarily controlled by the solar radiation on orbital to seasonal timescales. However, the relationship between solar activity and the monsoon system remains unclear. This study is based on a 13-year, from 2010 to 2022, monitoring campaign of the δ18O values of precipitation, cave drips and modern speleothems in Jiguan Cave, central China. By analyzing moisture circulation and the local meteoric water line (LMWL) under different ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events, it was found that on seasonal–interannual timescales, the precipitation δ18O values reflect the atmospheric moisture circulation. In addition, we used cross-wavelet transform analysis to investigate the periodic relationship between the sunspot number (SSN) and the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) since solar activity is one of the most important external influences on the ASM. The stalagmite δ18O data for our study areas reflect the solar activity-induced decadal-scale variations in the local precipitation. The key factors related to the δ18O value include the driving mechanism of the solar activity and ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We speculate that changes in solar activity cause anomalies in the tropical SST gradient, which affects central China's hydrological cycle by changing the variability of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ultimately causes the variations in stalagmites δ18O records.

Marine ecological effect of typhoon influenced by the frequency-phases of ENSO and anthropogenic activity: the East China Sea example

In coastal regions, typhoons are one of the most frequent natural disasters, and instrumental data indicate that they can greatly boost marine primary productivity. Typhoons' long-term ecological repercussions, however, are still little understood. To investigate the ecological effects of typhoons since the mid-Holocene, we focused on the sediment cores in the East China Sea, with key parameters of organic CN and Bio-Si to reveal the paleo-productivity variation. Over a millennium, the occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has had a substantial impact on primary productivity in the southern East China Sea. The primary productivity in the southern East China Sea was risen by humid climate conditions in ∼3.0–2.0 ka and frequent typhoons in 1.5–0 ka. With a millennial period, ENSO frequency has been significantly influencing primary productivity in the southern East China Sea since the mid-Holocene. During 1.5–0 ka, frequent ENSO events have led to more frequent typhoons, which caused terrestrial materials input and water vertically mix in the southern East China Sea, ultimately increasing primary productivity. Particularly on a centennial time scale, ENSO phases determined how much primary productivity was increased, and this magnitude was bigger during the La Niña-like periods than it was during the El Niño-like periods since La Niña is when typhoons occur more frequently. During the Little Ice Age, the cold climate hindered the reproduction of phytoplankton, but increased human activities in Taiwan resulted in more soil erosion and the supply of terrestrial-derived nutrients into the sea, then amplified the typhoon-induced increase in primary productivity. As a result, this stage showed the highest primary productivity since the mid-Holocene. This study reveals that frequent typhoons promote marine primary productivity on centennial-millennial timescales and emphasizes that human activities amplify the ecological effect of typhoons in recent centuries.

ENSO skewness hysteresis and associated changes in strong El Niño under a CO2 removal scenario

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly skewness encapsulates the nonlinear processes of strong ENSO events and affects future climate projections. Yet, its response to CO2 forcing remains not well understood. Here, we find ENSO skewness hysteresis in a large ensemble CO2 removal simulation. The positive SST skewness in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific gradually weakens (most pronounced near the dateline) in response to increasing CO2, but weakens even further once CO2 is ramped down. Further analyses reveal that hysteresis of the Intertropical Convergence Zone migration leads to more active and farther eastward-located strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, thus decreasing central Pacific ENSO skewness by reducing the amplitude of the central Pacific positive SST anomalies and increasing the scaling effect of the eastern Pacific skewness denominator, i.e., ENSO intensity, respectively. The reduction of eastern Pacific El Niño maximum intensity, which is constrained by the SST zonal gradient of the projected background El Niño-like warming pattern, also contributes to a reduction of eastern Pacific SST skewness around the CO2 peak phase. This study highlights the divergent responses of different strong El Niño regimes in response to climate change.

Towards improved seasonal rainfall prediction in the tropical Pacific Islands

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major influence on interannual variability of rainfall in stations in the tropical southwest Pacific. Predictions of seasonal rainfall, especially a season or two ahead, are of great value to these countries. This paper therefore examines the correlations over ~ 60 years between seasonal rainfall and 8 ENSO indicators at 16 island stations, allowing for lead times. The results show the influence on rainfall of the position and movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during ENSO events, and that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4), and the warm water volume in the eastern Pacific (WWV1) have longer lead times compared to most other ENSO indicators. These indicators can therefore be used with confidence in SCOPIC, a widely used statistical tool for prediction of seasonal rainfall. (As global climate models generally have systematic errors in their depiction of the SPCZ, they cannot yet be used directly to reliably predict seasonal rainfall in this region.) For several sites near the SPCZ, we find that a moderately good forecast of rainfall in both spring and summer can be made from indicators measured in June–July (i.e., 3–6 months in advance.)

ENSO effects in the southern Gulf of California estimated from satellite data

This study assessed the impact of ENSO events in the seasonal and interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton biomass (expressed as chlorophyll-a, Chl-a levels) obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products from June 2002 to December 2018, in two contrasting regions of the southern Gulf of California, the connection between the gulf and the Pacific Ocean, and the coastal region off Mazatlán. The generated dataset was compared with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and a local wind-derived coastal upwelling index (CUI) computed in the coastal region off Mazatlán from the ERA5 monthly average wind. In this region, the results showed that the prevailing northwesterly winds reached 4 m s−1; however, southwesterly winds were observed during summer, mainly from June to August. The CUI showed values of up to 35 m3 s−1 per 100 m of coastline. The prevailing winds induce upwelling most of the year, with peaks in winter more intense during La Niña than during the El Niño event. Regarding SST and Chl-a levels, changes were observed with clear seasonal, semiannual, annual, and interannual variability, with 2.8 and 3.7 years of periodicities. In the coastal zone, seasonal values were maximum SST values (30–31 °C) during the summer and minimum values (20–22 °C) during the winter. The Chl-a levels showed an inverse trend, with minimum values (0.1–1.00 mg m−3) during summer and maximum values (>2 mg m−3) during winter. In the P1 site, in the connection between the gulf and the Pacific Ocean, the results showed during summer maximum SST values (29.5–31 °C) and minimum Chl-a (<0.2 mg m−3), while during winter minimum SST values (21–23 °C) and maximum Chl-a (0.3–2.0 mg m−3). Changes were also observed in both parameters owing to El Niño (high SST, low Chl-a levels) and La Niña (low SST, high Chl-a levels) conditions, which were confirmed by spectral and wavelet analyses. During the study period, La Niña conditions occurred during 2005/2006, 2007/2008, a multiyear event in 2010/2012, and 2017/2018, while El Niño conditions occurred during 2002/2003, 2006/2007, 2009/2010, and a multiyear event 2014/2016. Regarding their frequency, La Niña event occurred twice with a frequency corresponding to two years, and El Niño had a recurrence interval of between three and four years.

Distinct decadal modulation of Atlantic-Niño influence on ENSO

It is known that winter Atlantic-Niño events can induce the El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) in the following winter with a lag of 1-year during one period. On the other hand, summer Atlantic-Niño events can lead to the ENSO in the subsequent winter with a half-year lag during another period. In this study, we investigate the distinct interdecadal modulation of the effect of the Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by analyzing observational reanalysis datasets. During the mid-twentieth century, the winter Atlantic-Niño exhibited increased intensity and extended westward due to warmer conditions in the tropical western Atlantic. As a result, convection occurred from the Amazon to the Atlantic, triggering an atmospheric teleconnection that led to trade wind discharging and equatorial Kelvin waves, ultimately contributing to the development of ENSO. In contrast, during late twentieth century, summer Atlantic-Niño events were closely linked to the South America low-level jet in boreal spring. This connection led to the formation of widespread and intense convection over the Amazon to the Atlantic region. Then, the Walker circulation was effectively modulated, subsequently triggering ENSO events. Further analysis revealed that the interdecadal modulation of the Atlantic–South America–Pacific mean state plays a crucial role in shaping the impact of Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by modifying not only the characteristics of the Atlantic-Niños but also ocean–atmospheric feedback process. Therefore, improving our understanding of the interdecadal modulation of the climatological mean state over the Pacific to Atlantic regions enables better anticipation of the interaction between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Diurnal to interannual variability of low‐level cloud cover over western equatorial Africa in May–October

AbstractThis study examines the diurnal to interannual variations of the stratiform cloud cover in May–October (1971–2019) from a 3‐hourly station database and from ERA5 reanalyses over western equatorial Africa (WEA). The main diurnal variations of the local‐scale fraction and genus of stratiform clouds are synthesized into three canonical diurnal types (i.e., “clear,” “clear afternoon,” “cloudy” days). The interannual variations of frequencies of the three diurnal types during the cloudiest months (JJAS) are mostly associated with two main mechanisms: a meridional shallow overturning cell associating more “cloudy” and less “clear” and “clear afternoon” days to anomalous southerlies below 900 hPa over and around WEA, anomalous ascent around 5°–7°N, anomalous northerlies between 875 and 700 hPa, and anomalous subsidence over the equatorial Atlantic. This circulation is strongly related to interannual variations of the equatorial Atlantic upwelling (i.e., more clouds when the upwelling is strong) associated with a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the Tropical Atlantic and adjacent continents. The second mechanism operates mostly in the zonal direction and involves again the coupled ocean–atmosphere system over the equatorial Atlantic, but also the remote El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). An anomalously cold equatorial Atlantic drives increased low‐level westerlies toward the Congo Basin. Warm ENSO events promote broad warm and easterly anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere, which increase the local static stability, and thus the local stratiform cloud cover over WEA. The present study suggests new mechanisms responsible for interannual variations of stratiform clouds in WEA, thus providing avenues of future research regarding the stability of the stratiform cloud deck under the ongoing differential warming of tropical ocean and land masses.

Role of sea surface temperature variability on the risk of Canadian wheat, barley, and oat yields

Surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in Prairie (Western) and Maritime (Eastern) Canada are influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively. However effects of ENSO and AMO on major crop yield in Canada is yet to be understood. Here we investigate the longest record (1908–2017) of wheat, barley, and oat yield as well as its associated risk with summer (May-September) ENSO and AMO interannual and multidecadal variability in Prairie and Maritime, respectively. We used generalized linear models with autocorrelative residuals to assess region- and crop-specific associations between ENSO, AMO, surface air temperatures, and precipitation on crop yield. After adjusting for covariates our models show that a positive phase of the AMO (in comparison to negative phase) significantly reduces the risk of Maritime crop yields by ~3–12%, with both extreme heat and wet precipitation found to be significant risk factors for reducing yields. Summer El Niño or La Niña was found to have a small, insignificant effect on yield in the Prairie region, with no effects found on crops in Maritimes. Therefore, analysis of Atlantic oceanic variability can offer insight into major crop yield variability in Maritime Canada.

Extreme events in the multi-proxy South Pacific drought atlas

Droughts are a natural occurrence in many small Pacific Islands and can have severe impacts on local populations and environments. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known driver of drought in the South Pacific, but our understanding of extreme ENSO events and their influence on island hydroclimate is limited by the short instrumental record and the infrequency of ENSO extremes. To address this gap, we developed the South Pacific Drought Atlas (SPaDA), a multi-proxy, spatially resolved reconstruction of the November–April Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the southwest Pacific islands. The reconstruction covers the period from 1640 to 1998 CE and is based on nested principal components regression. It replicates historical droughts linked to ENSO events with global influence, compares well to previously published ENSO reconstructions, and is independently verified against fossil coral records from the Pacific. To identify anomalous hydroclimatic states in the SPaDA that may indicate the occurrence of an extreme event, we used an Isolation Forest, an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Extreme El Niño events characterised by very strong southwest Pacific drought anomalies and a zonal SPCZ orientation are shown to have occurred throughout the reconstruction interval, providing a valuable baseline to compare to climate model projections. By identifying the spatial patterns of drought resulting from extreme events, we can better understand the impacts these events may have on individual Pacific Islands in the future.

Synergistic effect of El Niño Southern oscillation and subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole on Southern China winter precipitation

Both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) have significant impacts on the winter precipitation over southern China (SC). In this study, we investigate the synergistic effect of ENSO and SIOD on southern China winter precipitation (SCWP). Our findings indicate that SCWP is closely associated with the out-of-phase configurations of ENSO and SIOD, with precipitation tending to increase (decrease) during El Niño and negative SIOD (La Niña and positive SIOD). During El Niño and negative SIOD, the El Niño leads to an anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific through Walker circulation and Gill-type tropical response. The associated southwesterly winds of the anticyclone transport ample water vapor towards SC. The El Niño and negative SIOD both trigger a wave-like pattern from Europe to SC. This wave train (PC1-like wave train) propagates towards SC and induces anomalous cyclonic circulation and strong upward motion over SC, resulting in enhanced precipitation over SC. During La Niña and positive SIOD, the low-level cyclone over the northwest Pacific results from both La Niña and positive SIOD. The positive SIOD enhances La Niña-related cyclonic circulation response through cross-equator Hadley circulation, weakening the water vapor transport towards SC. The positive SIOD-related wave train (PC3-like wave train) plays the dominant role in inducing anomalous anticyclonic circulation and weak descending motion, leading to reduced precipitation over SC.

Influencia de ENSO en sequía agrícola identificada por evaluación SPEI en los Andes tropicales peruanos, valle del Mantaro

Agricultural drought is a serious threat for those locations where one of the most important economic activities is crop production, which occurrence has been rising due to climate change. In addition, different kinds of phenomena could exacerbate agricultural drought frequency, duration, and severity. For example, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which mostly occurs in the tropical western and central pacific, directly affects the Peruvian territory. This study aims to understand ENSO's influence on agricultural drought in the Mantaro Valley, Peru since it is one of the most important agricultural lands in the country without clear scientific information linked to drought and ENSO events. For drought assessment using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) index and for ENSO events through a documentary and numerical analysis under Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) with information from several scientific recent papers to integrate information and formulate a clear event influence understanding. The results show that within Mantaro Valley along its four provinces and their six meteorological stations, 70% of agricultural drought events occurred when ENSO was present between 1990-2021. Also, the severity straight correlation percentage between both, ENSO and SPEI events is quite variable between 9.09%-70%. It is important to keep analyzing those stations with few data since it can provide a new scenario deportment and track new ENSO forecasting methods to rise adaptive capacity and guarantee national and international food security which has as an important supplier to the Mantaro Valley, Peru.

The Tibetan Plateau bridge: Influence of remote teleconnections from extratropical and tropical forcings on climate anomalies

Recent advances in the bridging roles played by the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are reviewed in terms of the remote influence of circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean on Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and in a clear link between the tropical oceans and Asian climate anomalies. The authors firstly introduce how the winter and spring anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean affect the seasonal transition over the South Asian monsoon region and subsequent ENSO events on the interannual timescale. A distinct negative sensible heating-baroclinic structure in May over the TP is found to provide an intermediate bridging effect in this Atlantic-Asian-Pacific connection. In summer, the North Atlantic Oscillation is significantly correlated with the variations of East China summer rainfall, and it is the TP's latent heating that plays the bridging role within. On the other hand, such a TP bridging effect also exists in the connection from the tropical oceans to extreme precipitation events over eastern China in summer, and from the midlatitude wave train to the biweekly oscillation of South China rainfall in spring.摘要本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展, 涉及北大西洋气候异常对春, 夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 事件的遥相关影响, 热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等. 介绍了年际时间尺度上, 冬-春季北大西洋海表温度强迫如何影响南亚季风的季节性转变以及随后ENSO事件的触发. 5月份青藏高原上空显著的负感热斜压结构, 为北大西洋影响亚洲季风和ENSO提供了桥梁效应. 夏季北大西洋涛动与华东夏季降水变化显著相关, 高原潜热在这一关系中起着桥梁作用. 另一方面, 这种高原桥梁效应也存在于从热带海洋异常到东亚夏季极端降水事件的连接中, 以及从中纬度波列到华南春雨准双周振荡的联系中.

The Context of the 2018–20 “Protracted” El Niño Episode: Australian Drought and Terrestrial, Marine, and Ecophysiological Impacts

Abstract A “protracted” El Niño episode occurred from March–April 2018 to April–May 2020. It was manifested by the interlinked Indo-Pacific influences of two components of El Niño phases. Positive Indian Ocean dipoles (IODs) in 2018 and 2019 suppressed the formation of northwest cloud bands and southern Australia rainfall, and a persistent teleconnection, with enhanced convection generated by positive Niño-4 region sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and strong subsidence over eastern Australia, exacerbated this Australian drought. As with “classical” El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which usually last 12–18 months, protracted ENSO episodes, which last for more than 2 yr, show a similar pattern of impacts on society and the environment across the Indo-Pacific domain, and often extend globally. The second half of this study puts the impact of the 2018–20 protracted El Niño episode on both the Australian terrestrial agricultural and marine ecophysiological environments in a broader context. These impacts are often modulated not only by the direct effects of ENSO events and episodes, but by interrelated local to region ocean–atmosphere interactions and synoptic weather patterns. Even though the indices of protracted ENSO episodes are often weaker in magnitude than those of major classical ENSO events, it is the longer duration of the former that poses its own set of problems. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate the potential to forecast protracted ENSO episodes, particularly when the mid-2020 to current 2022 period has been experiencing a major protracted La Niña episode with near-global impacts. Significance Statement The major 2018–20 Australian drought and its terrestrial and marine impacts were caused by a “protracted” El Niño episode, exacerbated by global warming. Indo-Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions resulted in a persistent positive western Pacific Niño-4 sea surface temperature anomaly during the period 2018–20 and positive Indian Ocean dipoles (IODs) in 2018 and 2019. These suppressed rainfall across eastern Australia and limited northwest Australian cloud band rainfall across southern Australia. Australian agricultural and ecophysiological impacts caused by protracted El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes permeate, overstress, and expose society, infrastructure, and livelihoods to longer temporal-scale pressures than those experienced during shorter “classical” ENSO events. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate the potential to forecast protracted ENSO episodes.

Insight into Asymmetry in the Impact of Different Types of ENSO on the NAO

Understanding the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is of critical significance for seasonal prediction. The present study found that both Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) intensity and east-west gradient in the mid-low latitude Pacific determine the linkage between ENSO and the NAO. Based on Niño3.4 SSTA intensity and the east-west gradient, ENSO events are classified into three types: strong intensity, weak intensity-strong gradient (WSG), and equatorial ENSOs. Note that the former two types are usually concurrent with a strong zonal SSTA gradient. In contrast, equatorial ENSO is often associated with weak intensity-weak gradient SSTAs confined in the equatorial Pacific. The anomalous circulation patterns in response to the three types of ENSO exhibit asymmetric features over the North Atlantic. The WSG-El Niño associated circulation anomaly resembles a negative NAO-like pattern, yet the strong and equatorial El Niño associated circulation anomalies show a neutral-NAO pattern. For La Niña events, their impact on the NAO mainly depends on the cold SSTA position rather than their intensity. The strong and WSG-La Niña associated negative SSTAs are centered in the equatorial-central Pacific and favor a steady positive NAO-like anomaly. The cold SSTA center of equatorial La Niña shifts to the equatorial-eastern Pacific and cannot profoundly influence the North Atlantic climate. The physical mechanisms are also investigated with a general circulation model.

Solar and ENSO activity affecting Late Holocene carbon accumulation rates in peatlands from Northeast Asia: Evidence from periodic signal analysis

Peatlands are well developed in large areas of Northeast Asia, where changes in Late Holocene carbon accumulation rate (CAR) have played an important role in influencing the regional carbon cycle. However, the driving mechanisms and periodic signals of these important peatlands have rarely been investigated. The Zhibian peatland is a subalpine peatland, which has a continuous CAR record covering the entire Late Holocene. This peatland is located in Northeast Asia, its carbon dynamics were directly influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon. This peatland recorded direct interactions between the CAR dynamics, solar and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. Thus, we selected this peatland as a representative peatland for Northeast Asia. We used spectrum analyses and wavelet analyses to study the periodic signals of CAR dynamics, total solar irradiance (TSI), mean annual precipitation (Pann) and ENSO activity during the Late Holocene. The correlation relationships between the above parameters were investigated to explore the driving mechanisms for CAR dynamics in Northeast Asia peatlands. Our analyses indicate that CAR dynamics show 88a, 210a and 1000a periodicity over the Late Holocene. The potential driving factors, such as the Pann, ENSO and TSI, also indicate similar periodic signals. These relationships further indicate that the Pann, ENSO and TSI played an important role in controlling the CAR variations of Northeast Asia peatlands. Wavelet analyses results suggest that the CAR, Pann and TSI negatively corresponded with the ENSO variations. From the relationship model between these parameters, we concluded that strong solar activity resulted in fewer ENSO events and more precipitation in Northeast Asia. Wet conditions contributed to higher CAR, and vice versa.

Tropical cyclones and depressions over the South Pacific Ocean since the late 19th century: Assessing synergistic relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical depressions (TDs), hereafter collectively referred to as tropical storms, often exhibit large year‐to‐year variability in the South Pacific Ocean basin. Many past studies have examined this variability in relation to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, particularly using observational data from the post‐satellite era (i.e., after the 1970s when TC observations became more consistent). However, less emphasis is placed on how tropical storms are modulated at interdecadal and decadal time scales such as due to Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This is because post‐satellite data are available for relatively short time period (i.e., post‐1970s), limiting our understanding of the IPO–TC relationship in the South Pacific. Here, using NOAA‐CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, we reconstruct historical records (1871–2014) of TC and depression proxies for the South Pacific Ocean basin, and then utilize these reconstructed proxies to first understand the connections between TC–ENSO and TC–IPO over the 20th century, and then investigate the combined effects of ENSO–IPO effects on TCs and depressions. Results show that La Niña (El Niño) is more dominant on TC activity than El Niño (La Niña) over the western subregion 140–170° E (eastern sub‐region, 170–220° E) as expected. We also show that TC numbers are strongly modulated by the IPO phenomenon with, on average, more TCs occurring during the positive phase than during the negative phase of the IPO in both western and eastern sub‐regions. We show for the first time (using a long‐term reconstructed TC dataset) that the combined phases of El Niño and + IPO account for increased TC activity, as opposed to the combined phase of La Niña and −IPO, in the eastern sub‐region. Similarly, the combined phase of La Niña and + IPO, as opposed to the combined phase of El Niño and −IPO, account for increased TC activity in the western sub‐region. However, unlike TCs, the patterns of ENSO variability seem to be reversed for TDs. Changes in large‐scale environmental conditions, such as environmental vertical wind shear, low‐level cyclonic relative vorticity, mid‐tropospheric relative humidity and sea surface temperature are linked to the various modes of variability patterns and their synergistic relationships.

Diversity and Ranking of ENSO Impacts along the Eastern Seaboard of Subtropical Southern Africa

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability over southern Africa during the summer half of the year. It is widely accepted that El Niño (La Niña) core summers (December–February) are typically warmer and drier (cooler and wetter) than average over the region. Although it is recognized that the ENSO impacts are nonlinear and not all events result in the expected impact, little or no work has been carried out to systematically explore the diversity and ranking of these impacts. Here, parameter-space bubble plots involving various rainfall and temperature metrics are used to study how such impacts vary over the eastern seaboard of subtropical southern Africa to determine the ENSO events with the strongest impacts, and to identify the most anomalous ENSO cases. Comparison of neutral summers experiencing the strongest droughts/floods with ENSO impacts is also performed. These metrics are designed to be applicable to the interests of farmers and other user groups. It is found that 1987/1988 (2017/2018) was the most unusual El Niño (La Niña) and neutral 1981/1982 had a severe drought, worse than occurs during most El Niños. These unusual cases are explained in terms of regional circulation and SST anomalies. Implications of the results for seasonal forecasting and for farmers are discussed.