El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events Research Articles

Key to ENSO phase-locking simulation: effects of sea surface temperature diurnal amplitude

The tendency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to peak during boreal winter is known as ENSO phase-locking, whose accurate simulation is essential for ENSO prediction. However, the simulated peaks of ENSO events usually occur outside boreal winter in state-of-the-art climate models. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the model with a more reasonable diurnal amplitude (DA) in the sea surface temperature (SST) had a better simulation ability for ENSO phase-locking compared with other models. Further experiments based on the earth system model revealed that the DA is vital for ENSO phase-locking simulation primarily due to the spatial inhomogeneities in seasonal DA anomaly variations in ENSO years with positive/negative DA anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific and negative/positive in the western or eastern Pacific during El Niño/La Niña. Our findings indicate that DA simulation in climate models is crucial for resolving the long-standing failure associated with the ENSO phase-locking simulation accuracy.

The Influence of ENSO on the Long‐Term Water Storage Anomalies in the Middle‐Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin: Evaluation and Analysis

AbstractRecent extreme events in the Middle‐Lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MLYRB) are proven to be possibly linked to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events as indicated by terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA). But the relatively short observation time of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment series missions (2002–2017; 2018–present) affects the robustness of the evaluation of TWSA. Here, the applicability of four long‐term TWSA data sets (since 1979) in the MLYRB is evaluated first using an evaluation framework including two completely independent tests. After selecting the optimal one, we investigate the effects of ENSO on TWSA in the MLYRB at the basin, subbasin, and grid cell scales, respectively. Results show that ENSO, especially the Eastern Pacific type ENSO has had a significant impact on TWSA variations in the MLYRB and its two subbasins (the Dongting Lake basin and the Poyang Lake basin) since 1979 with correlation coefficients at 0.56–0.65 and time lags at 5–6 months. However, TWSAs in the other two subbasins (the Hanjiang River basin and the Mainstream River basin) have almost no correlation with ENSO. Further analysis reveals that compared with human activity that has a limited impact on TWSA, precipitation is one of the key inducements for regional water storage changes in these two subbasins, and the no correlation between ENSO and TWSA is mainly caused by the weak link between ENSO and precipitation.

The Effects of El Nino Southern Oscillation on Rainfall in the Karst Area of Maros, National Park Bantimurung Bulusaraung South Sulawesi and its Impact on Flood Disasters

The aims of this study were to describe rainfall profiles, to analyze the effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its impact on flood disasters in the karst area of Maros, National Park Bantimurung Bulusaraung South Sulawesi. The data used were monthly data of ENSO parameters and monthly data on rainfall of Karst Maros TN Babul area in the range of 2011-2020. The monthly data of ENSO parameters consist of Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data, namely Nino Index 3.4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) obtained from the official website of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and from the official website of BOM (Bureau of Meteorology), respectively. Whereas, the monthly data of rainfall of Karst Maros TN Babul area was obtained from Maros Climatology Station, South Sulawesi. The data was analyzed (i.e. graph analysis and simple linear regression) using Microsoft Excel 2010 Software and ArcGIS Software for map creation. The results showed that the rainfall profile of the karst Maros TN Babul region for the period 2011-2020 has a monsoon rainfall pattern with the highest rainfall in December, January, and February, while the lowest rainfall occurs in June, July, and August. The significant effect of ENSO on rainfall in the Karst Maros TN Babul Area for the period 2011-2020 was categorized as a moderate with an ONI correlation coefficient value of 0.521 and SOI of 0.465. The effect of ENSO on rainfall is in the range from 25.9 to 33.1% which result in flood disasters in the karst Maros TN Babul area such as Bantimurung, Tompobulu, Camba, and Simbang districts. The flood disasters mostly occurs in January and December with rainfall intensity from high to very high category.

A SST-constructed Ocean Heat Content index in crossing ENSO spring persistence barrier

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring persistence barrier (SPB) describes the feature in which the predictive skills of ENSO decrease significantly in the boreal spring. This paper investigates an index constructed using sea surface temperature (SST), namely SSTH, which is based on tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content (OHC) in crossing ENSO SPB. Inspired by the dynamical relationship between the tropical Pacific OHC and eastern Pacific SST anomalies, SSTH is constructed by SST anomalies (i.e., Niño3.4 index) to represent OHC. We show that this index leads ENSO SST anomalies by about 10 months, making it effective in crossing ENSO SPB. Particularly, among the 50 ENSO events from 1950 to 2022, 27 years were identified to be caused by SSTH signals. Compared with warm water volume (WWV) or the west of WWV (WWVw), this index is more stable and effective after the 21st century because the effective region of subsurface OHC changed dramatically afterward. However, SSTH avoids this problem as it is constructed by SST anomalies alone. Finally, as SST data is reliable before 1980, SSTH is utilized to study the interdecadal lead-lag relationship between subsurface OHC and ENSO SST.

A review of ENSO teleconnections at present and under future global warming

AbstractThe El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major component of the Earth's climate that largely influences global climate variability through long‐distance teleconnections. Rossby wave trains emerging from the tropical convection and their propagation into extratropical regions are the key mechanism for tropical and extratropical teleconnections. Despite significant progress in the understanding of ENSO teleconnections over the recent past decades, several important issues have remained to be addressed. The global atmospheric teleconnections of ENSO vary substantially with the seasonal cycle, on the decadal timescale, and under the influence of global warming. It is essential to separate the internal decadal variability of ENSO teleconnections from changes caused by the external forcing of global warming. However, the post‐satellite observations are not long enough to compose a large number of ENSO events to distinguish the decadal variability of ENSO teleconnections from changes related to increasing greenhouse concentrations. The current climate models also suffer from common biases, such that they are unable to properly reproduce both the tropical mean state and some features of ENSO. Nevertheless, observational records can be extended back in time via reconstruction methods. Efforts have also already been made to remove some main common biases of climate models and to improve the representation of ENSO characteristics. The reliable reconstructed data along with a large number of ensemble members of the improved climate model simulations can be applied to advance our understanding of ENSO global teleconnections and their responses to internal decadal variability and externally forced global warming.This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

Understanding the Driving Forces of the North Pacific Victoria Mode

Abstract The Victoria Mode (VM) is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific. It is independent of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and represents the second climate mode of North Pacific variability. Using a first-order autoregressive model and forcing indices that track the Aleutian low, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), anomalous ocean circulation in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE), and the cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this study reconstructs the North Pacific SSTAs and examines the relative contributions of different forcing mechanisms to the VM variance. It is found that the NPO and ENSO, especially the WP ENSO, are the dominant sources of VM variability, whereas the contributions of the Aleutian low and zonal advection in the KOE region are relatively small. Further analysis shows that the forcing mechanisms acting on the VM are frequency dependent. At decadal and longer time scales, the VM variance comes mainly from the WP ENSO, whereas at interannual-time-scale contributions from the NPO and CT ENSO are important. This study suggests that the VM is an oceanic response to the NPO forcing and atmospheric teleconnections excited by ENSO events.

Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Intensity of Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic‐Scale Disturbances During Boreal Summer

AbstractPresent study analyzes diverse impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the intensity of synoptic‐scale disturbances (SSDs) over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) during boreal summer. Asymmetric changes in the SSD intensity are detected in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) developing summers. The increase in the SSD intensity is larger and located more eastward in EN developing summers compared to the decrease in LN developing summers. The asymmetric SSD intensity changes are associated with an eastward shift of anomalous low‐level cyclone and mid‐level ascent during EN developing summers relative to opposite anomalies during LN developing summers. The above difference is attributed to zonally asymmetric anomalous equatorial central‐eastern Pacific heating and cooling in EN and LN years. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model illustrate that the major reason for asymmetric TWNP SSD intensity changes is the asymmetric atmospheric response to opposite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in EN and LN years. Comparisons between strong and moderate ENSO events show an obvious dependence of the SSD intensity change on the amplitude of EN, but not on the amplitude of LN. This indicates a stronger sensitivity to warmer SST than to colder SST. The enhancement of the TWNP SSD intensity is confined to a more westward longitude in Central than Eastern Pacific EN years with a comparable magnitude.

Atmospheric–Oceanic Processes over the Pacific Involved in the Effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO

Abstract This study investigates the physical mechanisms responsible for the impacts of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a focus on understanding the monsoon-induced Pacific air–sea interactive processes. An observational analysis displays that a weaker-than-normal ISM can strengthen an ongoing El Niño event and weaken a La Niña event, and conversely for a stronger-than-normal ISM. A 1000-yr output from the Community Earth System Model version 2 is capable of reproducing this observed feature and is therefore used to explore the responsible ocean–atmosphere interactive processes involved. Results show that a weak ISM can cause a cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific via stimulating atmospheric cold Kelvin waves, and conversely for a strong ISM. The westerly (easterly) wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) generate eastward (westward) current anomalies in the mixed layer and thus induce anomalous warm (cold) zonal advection. Furthermore, the wind anomalies excite oceanic downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves, which deepen (shoal) the thermocline in the equatorial eastern Pacific and result in anomalous warm (cold) vertical advection. A quantitative mixed layer heat budget analysis demonstrates that the influence of the monsoon-induced Pacific wind anomalies on ENSO is mainly achieved by changing the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback. This result is confirmed by model sensitivity experiments in which additional monsoon heating or cooling anomalies are imposed over the Indian region during the developing summer of an ENSO event. Significance Statement While previous studies have reported that the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) could influence the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this study is aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms for the Pacific air–sea interactive processes induced by the monsoon and their impact on ENSO. It is found that a weak and strong ISM can respectively induce an anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. The wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous circulation mainly change the zonal advective feedback and the thermocline feedback to affect ENSO development. This study provides a detailed physical explanation of how the ISM influences ENSO evolution.

New insights into potential effects of solar activity on the oxygen isotope composition of modern speleothems: Observations from Jiguan Cave, central China II

The oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O) of stalagmites have been widely used to reconstruct summer monsoon variability, which is primarily controlled by the solar radiation on orbital to seasonal timescales. However, the relationship between solar activity and the monsoon system remains unclear. This study is based on a 13-year, from 2010 to 2022, monitoring campaign of the δ18O values of precipitation, cave drips and modern speleothems in Jiguan Cave, central China. By analyzing moisture circulation and the local meteoric water line (LMWL) under different ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events, it was found that on seasonal–interannual timescales, the precipitation δ18O values reflect the atmospheric moisture circulation. In addition, we used cross-wavelet transform analysis to investigate the periodic relationship between the sunspot number (SSN) and the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) since solar activity is one of the most important external influences on the ASM. The stalagmite δ18O data for our study areas reflect the solar activity-induced decadal-scale variations in the local precipitation. The key factors related to the δ18O value include the driving mechanism of the solar activity and ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We speculate that changes in solar activity cause anomalies in the tropical SST gradient, which affects central China's hydrological cycle by changing the variability of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ultimately causes the variations in stalagmites δ18O records.

Marine ecological effect of typhoon influenced by the frequency-phases of ENSO and anthropogenic activity: the East China Sea example

In coastal regions, typhoons are one of the most frequent natural disasters, and instrumental data indicate that they can greatly boost marine primary productivity. Typhoons' long-term ecological repercussions, however, are still little understood. To investigate the ecological effects of typhoons since the mid-Holocene, we focused on the sediment cores in the East China Sea, with key parameters of organic CN and Bio-Si to reveal the paleo-productivity variation. Over a millennium, the occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has had a substantial impact on primary productivity in the southern East China Sea. The primary productivity in the southern East China Sea was risen by humid climate conditions in ∼3.0–2.0 ka and frequent typhoons in 1.5–0 ka. With a millennial period, ENSO frequency has been significantly influencing primary productivity in the southern East China Sea since the mid-Holocene. During 1.5–0 ka, frequent ENSO events have led to more frequent typhoons, which caused terrestrial materials input and water vertically mix in the southern East China Sea, ultimately increasing primary productivity. Particularly on a centennial time scale, ENSO phases determined how much primary productivity was increased, and this magnitude was bigger during the La Niña-like periods than it was during the El Niño-like periods since La Niña is when typhoons occur more frequently. During the Little Ice Age, the cold climate hindered the reproduction of phytoplankton, but increased human activities in Taiwan resulted in more soil erosion and the supply of terrestrial-derived nutrients into the sea, then amplified the typhoon-induced increase in primary productivity. As a result, this stage showed the highest primary productivity since the mid-Holocene. This study reveals that frequent typhoons promote marine primary productivity on centennial-millennial timescales and emphasizes that human activities amplify the ecological effect of typhoons in recent centuries.

ENSO skewness hysteresis and associated changes in strong El Niño under a CO2 removal scenario

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly skewness encapsulates the nonlinear processes of strong ENSO events and affects future climate projections. Yet, its response to CO2 forcing remains not well understood. Here, we find ENSO skewness hysteresis in a large ensemble CO2 removal simulation. The positive SST skewness in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific gradually weakens (most pronounced near the dateline) in response to increasing CO2, but weakens even further once CO2 is ramped down. Further analyses reveal that hysteresis of the Intertropical Convergence Zone migration leads to more active and farther eastward-located strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, thus decreasing central Pacific ENSO skewness by reducing the amplitude of the central Pacific positive SST anomalies and increasing the scaling effect of the eastern Pacific skewness denominator, i.e., ENSO intensity, respectively. The reduction of eastern Pacific El Niño maximum intensity, which is constrained by the SST zonal gradient of the projected background El Niño-like warming pattern, also contributes to a reduction of eastern Pacific SST skewness around the CO2 peak phase. This study highlights the divergent responses of different strong El Niño regimes in response to climate change.

Towards improved seasonal rainfall prediction in the tropical Pacific Islands

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major influence on interannual variability of rainfall in stations in the tropical southwest Pacific. Predictions of seasonal rainfall, especially a season or two ahead, are of great value to these countries. This paper therefore examines the correlations over ~ 60 years between seasonal rainfall and 8 ENSO indicators at 16 island stations, allowing for lead times. The results show the influence on rainfall of the position and movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during ENSO events, and that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4), and the warm water volume in the eastern Pacific (WWV1) have longer lead times compared to most other ENSO indicators. These indicators can therefore be used with confidence in SCOPIC, a widely used statistical tool for prediction of seasonal rainfall. (As global climate models generally have systematic errors in their depiction of the SPCZ, they cannot yet be used directly to reliably predict seasonal rainfall in this region.) For several sites near the SPCZ, we find that a moderately good forecast of rainfall in both spring and summer can be made from indicators measured in June–July (i.e., 3–6 months in advance.)

ENSO effects in the southern Gulf of California estimated from satellite data

This study assessed the impact of ENSO events in the seasonal and interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton biomass (expressed as chlorophyll-a, Chl-a levels) obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products from June 2002 to December 2018, in two contrasting regions of the southern Gulf of California, the connection between the gulf and the Pacific Ocean, and the coastal region off Mazatlán. The generated dataset was compared with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and a local wind-derived coastal upwelling index (CUI) computed in the coastal region off Mazatlán from the ERA5 monthly average wind. In this region, the results showed that the prevailing northwesterly winds reached 4 m s−1; however, southwesterly winds were observed during summer, mainly from June to August. The CUI showed values of up to 35 m3 s−1 per 100 m of coastline. The prevailing winds induce upwelling most of the year, with peaks in winter more intense during La Niña than during the El Niño event. Regarding SST and Chl-a levels, changes were observed with clear seasonal, semiannual, annual, and interannual variability, with 2.8 and 3.7 years of periodicities. In the coastal zone, seasonal values were maximum SST values (30–31 °C) during the summer and minimum values (20–22 °C) during the winter. The Chl-a levels showed an inverse trend, with minimum values (0.1–1.00 mg m−3) during summer and maximum values (>2 mg m−3) during winter. In the P1 site, in the connection between the gulf and the Pacific Ocean, the results showed during summer maximum SST values (29.5–31 °C) and minimum Chl-a (<0.2 mg m−3), while during winter minimum SST values (21–23 °C) and maximum Chl-a (0.3–2.0 mg m−3). Changes were also observed in both parameters owing to El Niño (high SST, low Chl-a levels) and La Niña (low SST, high Chl-a levels) conditions, which were confirmed by spectral and wavelet analyses. During the study period, La Niña conditions occurred during 2005/2006, 2007/2008, a multiyear event in 2010/2012, and 2017/2018, while El Niño conditions occurred during 2002/2003, 2006/2007, 2009/2010, and a multiyear event 2014/2016. Regarding their frequency, La Niña event occurred twice with a frequency corresponding to two years, and El Niño had a recurrence interval of between three and four years.

Distinct decadal modulation of Atlantic-Niño influence on ENSO

It is known that winter Atlantic-Niño events can induce the El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) in the following winter with a lag of 1-year during one period. On the other hand, summer Atlantic-Niño events can lead to the ENSO in the subsequent winter with a half-year lag during another period. In this study, we investigate the distinct interdecadal modulation of the effect of the Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by analyzing observational reanalysis datasets. During the mid-twentieth century, the winter Atlantic-Niño exhibited increased intensity and extended westward due to warmer conditions in the tropical western Atlantic. As a result, convection occurred from the Amazon to the Atlantic, triggering an atmospheric teleconnection that led to trade wind discharging and equatorial Kelvin waves, ultimately contributing to the development of ENSO. In contrast, during late twentieth century, summer Atlantic-Niño events were closely linked to the South America low-level jet in boreal spring. This connection led to the formation of widespread and intense convection over the Amazon to the Atlantic region. Then, the Walker circulation was effectively modulated, subsequently triggering ENSO events. Further analysis revealed that the interdecadal modulation of the Atlantic–South America–Pacific mean state plays a crucial role in shaping the impact of Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by modifying not only the characteristics of the Atlantic-Niños but also ocean–atmospheric feedback process. Therefore, improving our understanding of the interdecadal modulation of the climatological mean state over the Pacific to Atlantic regions enables better anticipation of the interaction between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Diurnal to interannual variability of low‐level cloud cover over western equatorial Africa in May–October

AbstractThis study examines the diurnal to interannual variations of the stratiform cloud cover in May–October (1971–2019) from a 3‐hourly station database and from ERA5 reanalyses over western equatorial Africa (WEA). The main diurnal variations of the local‐scale fraction and genus of stratiform clouds are synthesized into three canonical diurnal types (i.e., “clear,” “clear afternoon,” “cloudy” days). The interannual variations of frequencies of the three diurnal types during the cloudiest months (JJAS) are mostly associated with two main mechanisms: a meridional shallow overturning cell associating more “cloudy” and less “clear” and “clear afternoon” days to anomalous southerlies below 900 hPa over and around WEA, anomalous ascent around 5°–7°N, anomalous northerlies between 875 and 700 hPa, and anomalous subsidence over the equatorial Atlantic. This circulation is strongly related to interannual variations of the equatorial Atlantic upwelling (i.e., more clouds when the upwelling is strong) associated with a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the Tropical Atlantic and adjacent continents. The second mechanism operates mostly in the zonal direction and involves again the coupled ocean–atmosphere system over the equatorial Atlantic, but also the remote El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). An anomalously cold equatorial Atlantic drives increased low‐level westerlies toward the Congo Basin. Warm ENSO events promote broad warm and easterly anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere, which increase the local static stability, and thus the local stratiform cloud cover over WEA. The present study suggests new mechanisms responsible for interannual variations of stratiform clouds in WEA, thus providing avenues of future research regarding the stability of the stratiform cloud deck under the ongoing differential warming of tropical ocean and land masses.

Role of sea surface temperature variability on the risk of Canadian wheat, barley, and oat yields

Surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in Prairie (Western) and Maritime (Eastern) Canada are influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively. However effects of ENSO and AMO on major crop yield in Canada is yet to be understood. Here we investigate the longest record (1908–2017) of wheat, barley, and oat yield as well as its associated risk with summer (May-September) ENSO and AMO interannual and multidecadal variability in Prairie and Maritime, respectively. We used generalized linear models with autocorrelative residuals to assess region- and crop-specific associations between ENSO, AMO, surface air temperatures, and precipitation on crop yield. After adjusting for covariates our models show that a positive phase of the AMO (in comparison to negative phase) significantly reduces the risk of Maritime crop yields by ~3–12%, with both extreme heat and wet precipitation found to be significant risk factors for reducing yields. Summer El Niño or La Niña was found to have a small, insignificant effect on yield in the Prairie region, with no effects found on crops in Maritimes. Therefore, analysis of Atlantic oceanic variability can offer insight into major crop yield variability in Maritime Canada.

Extreme events in the multi-proxy South Pacific drought atlas

Droughts are a natural occurrence in many small Pacific Islands and can have severe impacts on local populations and environments. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known driver of drought in the South Pacific, but our understanding of extreme ENSO events and their influence on island hydroclimate is limited by the short instrumental record and the infrequency of ENSO extremes. To address this gap, we developed the South Pacific Drought Atlas (SPaDA), a multi-proxy, spatially resolved reconstruction of the November–April Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the southwest Pacific islands. The reconstruction covers the period from 1640 to 1998 CE and is based on nested principal components regression. It replicates historical droughts linked to ENSO events with global influence, compares well to previously published ENSO reconstructions, and is independently verified against fossil coral records from the Pacific. To identify anomalous hydroclimatic states in the SPaDA that may indicate the occurrence of an extreme event, we used an Isolation Forest, an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Extreme El Niño events characterised by very strong southwest Pacific drought anomalies and a zonal SPCZ orientation are shown to have occurred throughout the reconstruction interval, providing a valuable baseline to compare to climate model projections. By identifying the spatial patterns of drought resulting from extreme events, we can better understand the impacts these events may have on individual Pacific Islands in the future.

Synergistic effect of El Niño Southern oscillation and subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole on Southern China winter precipitation

Both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) have significant impacts on the winter precipitation over southern China (SC). In this study, we investigate the synergistic effect of ENSO and SIOD on southern China winter precipitation (SCWP). Our findings indicate that SCWP is closely associated with the out-of-phase configurations of ENSO and SIOD, with precipitation tending to increase (decrease) during El Niño and negative SIOD (La Niña and positive SIOD). During El Niño and negative SIOD, the El Niño leads to an anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific through Walker circulation and Gill-type tropical response. The associated southwesterly winds of the anticyclone transport ample water vapor towards SC. The El Niño and negative SIOD both trigger a wave-like pattern from Europe to SC. This wave train (PC1-like wave train) propagates towards SC and induces anomalous cyclonic circulation and strong upward motion over SC, resulting in enhanced precipitation over SC. During La Niña and positive SIOD, the low-level cyclone over the northwest Pacific results from both La Niña and positive SIOD. The positive SIOD enhances La Niña-related cyclonic circulation response through cross-equator Hadley circulation, weakening the water vapor transport towards SC. The positive SIOD-related wave train (PC3-like wave train) plays the dominant role in inducing anomalous anticyclonic circulation and weak descending motion, leading to reduced precipitation over SC.

Influencia de ENSO en sequía agrícola identificada por evaluación SPEI en los Andes tropicales peruanos, valle del Mantaro

Agricultural drought is a serious threat for those locations where one of the most important economic activities is crop production, which occurrence has been rising due to climate change. In addition, different kinds of phenomena could exacerbate agricultural drought frequency, duration, and severity. For example, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which mostly occurs in the tropical western and central pacific, directly affects the Peruvian territory. This study aims to understand ENSO's influence on agricultural drought in the Mantaro Valley, Peru since it is one of the most important agricultural lands in the country without clear scientific information linked to drought and ENSO events. For drought assessment using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) index and for ENSO events through a documentary and numerical analysis under Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) with information from several scientific recent papers to integrate information and formulate a clear event influence understanding. The results show that within Mantaro Valley along its four provinces and their six meteorological stations, 70% of agricultural drought events occurred when ENSO was present between 1990-2021. Also, the severity straight correlation percentage between both, ENSO and SPEI events is quite variable between 9.09%-70%. It is important to keep analyzing those stations with few data since it can provide a new scenario deportment and track new ENSO forecasting methods to rise adaptive capacity and guarantee national and international food security which has as an important supplier to the Mantaro Valley, Peru.

The Tibetan Plateau bridge: Influence of remote teleconnections from extratropical and tropical forcings on climate anomalies

Recent advances in the bridging roles played by the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are reviewed in terms of the remote influence of circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean on Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and in a clear link between the tropical oceans and Asian climate anomalies. The authors firstly introduce how the winter and spring anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean affect the seasonal transition over the South Asian monsoon region and subsequent ENSO events on the interannual timescale. A distinct negative sensible heating-baroclinic structure in May over the TP is found to provide an intermediate bridging effect in this Atlantic-Asian-Pacific connection. In summer, the North Atlantic Oscillation is significantly correlated with the variations of East China summer rainfall, and it is the TP's latent heating that plays the bridging role within. On the other hand, such a TP bridging effect also exists in the connection from the tropical oceans to extreme precipitation events over eastern China in summer, and from the midlatitude wave train to the biweekly oscillation of South China rainfall in spring.摘要本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展, 涉及北大西洋气候异常对春, 夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 事件的遥相关影响, 热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等. 介绍了年际时间尺度上, 冬-春季北大西洋海表温度强迫如何影响南亚季风的季节性转变以及随后ENSO事件的触发. 5月份青藏高原上空显著的负感热斜压结构, 为北大西洋影响亚洲季风和ENSO提供了桥梁效应. 夏季北大西洋涛动与华东夏季降水变化显著相关, 高原潜热在这一关系中起着桥梁作用. 另一方面, 这种高原桥梁效应也存在于从热带海洋异常到东亚夏季极端降水事件的连接中, 以及从中纬度波列到华南春雨准双周振荡的联系中.