El Nino-Southern Oscillation Conditions Research Articles

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

Modulation of U.S. tornado activity by year-round North American weather regimes

Abstract Here we examine the relation between U.S. tornado activity and a new year-round classification of North American weather regimes. The regime classification is based on 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies and classifies each day as Pacific Trough, Pacific Ridge, Alaskan Ridge, Greenland High, or No Regime. During the period 1979–2022, we find statistically significant relations between average tornado report numbers and weather regimes in all months except June–August. Tornado activity is enhanced on Pacific Ridge days during late winter and spring, reduced on Pacific Trough days in spring, and reduced on Alaskan Ridge and Greenland High days during fall and early winter. During active regimes, the probability of many tornadoes occurring also increases, and there is greater variability in the number of tornadoes reported each day. A reanalysis-based tornado index reproduces the regional features of the modulation of tornado activity by the weather regimes and attributes them to changes in storm relative helicity, convective available potential energy, and convective precipitation. The phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also plays a role. In winter and spring, Pacific Ridge days occur more often and average more reports per day during cool ENSO conditions. During warm ENSO conditions, Pacific Trough days occur more often and are associated with widespread reduced tornado activity.

Impact of ENSO and Trends on the Distribution of North American Wintertime Daily Temperature

Abstract The effect of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection and climate change trends on observed North American wintertime daily 2-m temperature is investigated for 1960–2022 with a quantile regression model, which represents the variability of the full distribution of daily temperature, including extremes and changes in spread. Climate change trends are included as a predictor in the regression model to avoid the potentially confounding effect on ENSO teleconnections. Based on prior evidence of asymmetric impacts from El Niño and La Niña, the ENSO response is taken to be piecewise linear, and the regression model contains separate predictors for warm and cool ENSO. The relationship between these predictors and shifts in median, interquartile range, skewness, and kurtosis of daily 2-m temperature are summarized through Legendre polynomials. Warm ENSO conditions result in significant warming shifts in the median and contraction of the interquartile range in central-northern North America, while no opposite effect is found for cool ENSO conditions in this region. In the southern United States, cool ENSO conditions produce a warming shift in the median, while warm ENSO conditions have little impact on the median, but contracts the interquartile range. Climate change trends are present as a near-uniform warming in the median and across quantiles and have no discernable impact on interquartile range or higher-order moments. Trends and ENSO together explain a substantial fraction of the interannual variability of daily temperature distribution shifts across much of North America and, to a lesser extent, changes of the interquartile range.

Seasonal variation in marine bird distribution in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Human activities have profound influences on marine ecosystems. Marine birds are particularly sensitive to these impacts and, given their ease of observation and diverse life histories, often represent good indicators of ecosystem health. Conserving marine birds and their ecosystems requires robust predictions of species distribution to help mitigate human disturbance in areas where large aggregations of diverse species occur. We modelled variation in marine bird species diversity (Shannon-Wiener Index) and taxonomic family level probability of occurrence to map the intensity and extent of highly diverse ‘hotspots’ in Canada’s Pacific Exclusive Economic Zone. To do so, we paired 20 yr of survey data from the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database (1997-2017) and remote sensing data describing marine conditions and local geography (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a, bathymetry, distance to shore, and benthic substrate type). These data were used to illustrate how seasonality within years and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) across years influenced spatial patterns in diversity. Hotspots were most persistent in Hecate Strait, off the west coast of Vancouver Island, and surrounding the Scott Islands in most seasons. Changes in hotspot locations and intensity were observed across seasons and within season under varying ENSO conditions. Our results provide a template for mapping marine species distribution for the purpose of identifying hotspots of diversity, and thereby facilitate planning to minimize harmful impacts in highly diverse and dynamic systems.

Quantifying the Strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole in Influencing the OND Rainfall Season in Tanzania

The current paper examines the strength of variability between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in influencing October to December (OND) rainfall over the bimodal rainfall regime of Tanzania. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis, and composite analysis were used during the data analysis. The results show more rainfall distribution over the western part of the Lake Victoria basin and to the peripheral of the northern coast of the country, thus suggesting that, during the OND rainfall season, the onset starts in the western part of the Lake Victoria basin, then spreads to the rest of the areas under investigation as the season progresses. Furthermore, on the spatial scale, the findings revealed that there is a strong correlation between IOD and ENSO indices and OND rains in the northeastern highlands. Furthermore, a robust temporal correlation is revealed between the mean OND rains over the bimodal rainfall areas and IOD (r = 0.70) compared to ENSO (r = 0.62). The anomalous warming over the western Indian Ocean (positive IOD) has a faster response to OND rains over the bimodal rainfall regime of Tanzania compared to the remote influence induced by anomalous warming from the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (warm phase of ENSO). Meanwhile, dry years are associated with negative IOD and the cold phase of ENSO conditions. The findings offer valuable insights on strategies for mitigating the effects associated with extreme weather events and improving resilience in Tanzania.

The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing

Abstract. Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 ∘C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

ANALISIS KARAKTERISTIK SPASIAL DAN TEMPORAL HOTSPOT DI TAMAN NASIONAL SEBANGAU PROVINSI KALIMANTAN TENGAH

Sebangau National Park, in Central Kalimantan Province, is a wetland conservation area. In 2015, forest and land fires resulted in 455 hectares being burned. The identification of hotspots in this study is based on the number and distribution of hotspots based on satellite imagery data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001–2020. This study identifies hotspots by looking at the influence of rainfall and ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions. The method used is the method of spatial and temporal analysis. The aim of this study was to determine the characteristics of the hotspot distribution pattern in Sebangau National Park, Central Kalimantan Province, both spatially and temporally. There is a similarity between the temporal and spatial characteristics of hotspots in the number of significant additions to the number of hotspots in August, September, and October. The influence of monsoonal rainfall types and climates such as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) greatly influences the occurrence of hotspot events in Sebangau National Park, Central Kalimantan Province. The distribution pattern of hotspots in Sebangau National Park, Central Kalimantan Province, peaked in October, and the worst addition to the number of hotspots occurred in 2015, when these conditions occurred during the dry season and when the ENSO index (El Nino Southern Oscillation) showed +2.6, where these conditions included strong El Nino categories.

Changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Abstract. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from the terrestrial biosphere play a significant role in major atmospheric processes. BVOCs are highly reactive compounds that influence the atmosphere's oxidation capacity and also serve as precursors for the formation of aerosols that influence global radiation budgets. Emissions depend on the response of vegetation to atmospheric conditions (primarily temperature and light), as well as other stresses, e.g. from droughts and herbivory. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring cycle arising from anomalies in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. ENSO perturbs the natural seasonality of weather systems on both global and regional scales and is considered the most significant driver of climate variability. Several studies have evaluated the sensitivity of BVOC fluxes during ENSO events using historical transient simulations. While this approach employs realistic scenarios, it is difficult to assess the impact of ENSO alone given the multiple types of climate forcing, e.g. from anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and aerosol. In this study, a global atmospheric chemistry–climate model with enabled interactive vegetation was used to conduct two sets of simulations: (1) isolated ENSO event simulations, in which a single ENSO event is used to perturb otherwise baseline conditions, and (2) sustained ENSO simulations, in which the same ENSO conditions are reproduced for an extended period of time. From the isolated ENSO events, we present global and regional BVOC emission changes resulting from the immediate response of vegetation to atmospheric states. More focus is given to the sustained ENSO simulations, which have the benefit of reducing the internal variability for more robust statistics when linking atmospheric and vegetation variables with BVOC flux anomalies. Additionally, these simulations explore long-term changes in the biosphere with potential shifts in vegetation in this possible climate mode, accounting for the prospect of increased intensity and frequency of ENSO with climate change. Our results show that strong El Niño events increase global isoprene emission fluxes by 2.9 % and that one single ENSO event perturbs the Earth system so markedly that BVOC emission fluxes do not return to baseline emissions within several years after the event. We show that persistent ENSO conditions shift the vegetation to a new quasi-equilibrium state, leading to an amplification of BVOC emission changes with up to a 19 % increase in isoprene fluxes over the Amazon. We provide evidence that BVOC-induced changes in plant phenology, such as the leaf area index (LAI), have a significant influence on BVOC emissions in the sustained ENSO climate mode.

Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events

Several aspects of regional climate including near-surface temperature and precipitation are predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. Despite indications that some climate states may provide higher predictability than others, previous studies analysing decadal predictions typically sample a variety of initial conditions. Here we assess multi-year predictability conditional on the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the time of prediction initialisation. We find that predictions starting with El Niño or La Niña conditions exhibit higher skill in predicting near-surface air temperature and precipitation multiple years in advance, compared to predictions initialised from neutral ENSO conditions. This holds true in idealised prediction experiments with the Community Climate System Model Version 4 and to a lesser extent also real-world predictions using the Community Earth System Model and a multi-model ensemble of hindcasts contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project. This enhanced predictability following ENSO events is related to phase transitions as part of the ENSO cycle, and related global teleconnections. Our results indicate that certain initial states provide increased predictability, revealing windows of opportunity for more skillful multi-year predictions.

Validation of Satellite Rainfall Product (GPM-IMERG) an Bali and Nusa Tenggara: A Comparison of Normal Seasons, El Nino and La Nina Events

Bali and Nusa Tenggara are regions where monsoonal wind changes and strange interactions between the ocean and atmosphere influence rainfall. The purpose of this research is to evaluate Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) rainfall data using in-situ observations from Bali and Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, while considering seasonal variations and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The study combines rainfall data from synoptic stations with rain gauge measurements over ten years, from January 2012 to December 2021, to obtain more accurate verification results. The study's findings indicate that, apart from the transitional seasons, IMERG data provides substantial estimates of monthly rainfall accumulation with low error values for both light and heavy rainfall. The study also reveals that the islands' complexity and topography can impact each province's validation values. The verification results show excellent accuracy in flat terrain areas and moderate elevations, while performance decreases in regions with high altitudes. These findings are significant because IMERG data can estimate rainfall for regions lacking monitoring stations during specific seasons and active ENSO conditions. Thus, this information can serve as a valuable tool to address the issue of data unavailability in hard-to-access areas and contribute to optimizing water resource management and weather-related disaster mitigation. Keywords: Validation, Rainfall, IMERG, ENSO

Spatiotemporal networks for ENSO forecasting with LICOM3 and remote sensing data

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex coupled ocean-atmosphere event, usually manifested as an abnormal increase or decrease in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO is one of the critical factors causing global climate extremes and ecosystem turbulence. Therefore, long-term robust ENSO predictions are essential for people’s productive life and social development. The statistical and dynamic models still face challenges in making long-lead-time ENSO forecasts, and the accuracy can be improved. Here, we have created three innovative efforts for ENSO forecasting: (1) To compensate for the lack of Remote Sensing (RSS) dataset, we apply transfer learning with the large SST dataset simulated from the LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model Version 3 (LICOM3). (2) We propose a novel encoder-decoder structure with multiple Spatiotemporal prediction units (ST-Pred) named ED-PredRNN. The ST-Pred changes the original transfer direction by adding spatiotemporal memory cells, allowing the model to extract more information. (3) To reduce the memory bandwidth load, we use FP32 and FP16 mixed-precision computing methods to improve model training and inference speed.The result shows that during 2011–2020 verification period, the correlation skills of the Niño 3.4 index predicted by ED-PredRNN are over 0.77/0.64/0.53 within the lead time of 6/12/18 months respectively, which is superior to existing statistical models. Also, the precise predictions of the El Niño event (such as 2015/16) and the La Niña event (such as 2010/11), as well as a reasonable forecast for neutral ENSO conditions (2014), demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed model.

Complex interactions of ENSO and local conditions buffer the poleward shift of migratory fish in a subtropical seascape

Ocean warming is associated with the tropicalization of fish towards higher latitudes. However, the influence of global climatic phenomena like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases on tropicalization has been overlooked. Understanding the combined effects of global climatic forces together with local variability on the distribution and abundance of tropical fish is essential for building more accurate predictive models of species on the move. This is particularly important in regions where ENSO-related impacts are known to be major drivers of ecosystem change, and is compounded by predictions that El Niño is becoming more frequent and intense under current ocean warming. In this study, we used long-term time series of monthly standardized sampling (August 1996 to February 2020) to investigate how ocean warming, ENSO and local environmental variability influence the abundance of an estuarine dependent tropical fish species (white mullet Mugil curema) at subtropical latitudes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Our work revealed a significant increasing trend in surface water temperature in shallow waters (<1.5 m) at estuarine and marine sites. However, against our initial expectation, we did not observe an increasing trend in the abundance of this tropical mullet species. Generalized Additive Models revealed complex, non-linear relationships between species abundance and environmental factors operating at large (ENSO's warm and cold phases), regional (freshwater discharge in the coastal lagoon's drainage basin) and local (temperature and salinity) scales across the estuarine marine gradient. These results demonstrate that fish responses to global climate change can be complex and multifaceted. More specifically, our findings suggested that the interaction among global and local driving forces dampen the expected effect of tropicalization for this mullet species in a subtropical seascape.

Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation

Future changes are expected in precipitation under climate change, therefore, changes are projected in the oceanic and terrestrial components. However, it remains poorly elucidated how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence these changes. Therefore, we aimed to perform a space-time causality analysis of regional ENSO impacts on terrestrial and oceanic precipitation by using the Granger causality method as a function of eight temporal lags (lags 1–8). The monthly values of total precipitation obtained using the Lagrangian approach and their respective terrestrial (PLT) and oceanic (PLO) components were used. The analysis was performed for the two regions of western North America (WNA) and eastern South America (ESA) with strong ENSO signals. For the WNA region in winter, the maximum Granger causality was observed in the component of oceanic origin for temporal lags 1 and 2 (3 and 6 months), with a predominance of both positive and negative ENSO conditions. For the ESA region, it was verified that the causality of the ENSO index was maximum for PLT. Temporal lags 2–5 (6–15 months) stood out in winter when there was a marked region of the Granger causality over the La Plata Basin. In autumn, for lags 1–4 (3–12 months), the Granger causality values were predominant in the southern and western areas of ESA and showed a tendency to move northward with an increased temporal lag. Finally, it was shown that high correlation values did not imply the causality of the relationship between the ENSO index and precipitation in the two regions.

Influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on bigeye and yellowfin tuna longline catch per unit effort in the equatorial Pacific

AbstractBigeye tuna (BET) and yellowfin tuna (YFT) are economically important target species of pelagic fisheries worldwide, especially for tropical Pacific nations whose economies and food sources are heavily affected by commercial and sustenance tuna fishing. The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong effect on the oceanographic conditions in the equatorial Pacific, including BET and YFT equatorial habitat and fishing grounds. For optimal fisheries management, the effects of environmental variability such as ENSO on the stocks and on the performance of fisheries must be known and predictable. However, besides some model predictions, the effects of ENSO on these two tuna species are not well understood. In this study, I investigate the statistical relationships between past ENSO conditions and equatorial fisheries using the Multivariate ENSO Index, sea surface temperature (SST), and catch and effort records from the longline fisheries in the region. Results of this study indicate that El Niño events have both delayed and concurrent positive effects on BET and YFT catch per unit effort (CPUE). The delayed positive ENSO effect on CPUE is hypothesized to be the result of enhanced recruitment acting via different mechanisms in the west than in the east. The concurrent positive effects on CPUE could be due to catchability, abundance, and/or vertical distribution of BET and YFT relative to fishing gear and require further investigation. Further exploration of the mechanisms that may underlie the results presented here could lead to predictability of CPUE of these two tuna species.

Transport pathways of carbon monoxide from Indonesian fire pollution to a subtropical high-altitude mountain site in the western North Pacific

Abstract. Dry conditions associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are known to have caused major fire pollution events and intense carbon emissions over a vast spatial expanse of Indonesia in October 2006 and 2015. During these two events, a substantial increase in the carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio was detected by in situ measurements at Lulin Atmospheric Background Station (LABS; 23.47∘ N 120.87∘ E; 2862 ma.s.l.) in Taiwan, which is the only background station in the subtropical western North Pacific region. Compared to the long-term October mean (2006–2021), CO was elevated by ∼ 47.2 ppb (parts per billion; 37.2 %) and ∼ 36.7 ppb (28.9 %) in October 2006 and 2015, respectively. This study delineates plausible pathways for the CO transport from Indonesia to LABS using Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO observations and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis products (winds and geopotential height – GpH). Two simultaneously occurring transport pathways were identified, namely (i) horizontal transport in the free troposphere and (ii) vertical transport through the Hadley circulation (HC). The GpH analysis of both events revealed the presence of a high-pressure anticyclone over the northern part of the South China Sea (SCS), which played an important role in the free-tropospheric horizontal transport of CO. In this scenario, CO in the free troposphere is transported on the western edge of the high-pressure system and then driven by subtropical westerlies to LABS. Simultaneously, uplifted CO over Indonesia can enter the HC and be transferred to subtropical locations such as LABS. The vertical cross section of the MOPITT CO and MERRA-2 vertical pressure velocity supported the transport of CO through the HC. Furthermore, the results revealed a distinct HC strength in two events (higher in 2006 compared to 2015) due to the different ENSO conditions. Overall, the present findings can provide some insights into understanding the regional transport of pollution over Southeast Asia and the role of climate conditions on transport pathways.

Extreme El Niño southern oscillation conditions have contrasting effects on the body condition of five euphausiid species around the northern Antarctic Peninsula during winter

El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events drive profound global impacts on marine environments. These events may result in contrasting conditions in the Southern Ocean, with differing effects on euphausiid species because of their diverse life histories, habitats, and feeding ecologies. We conducted oceanographic surveys during winter (2012–2016) around the northern Antarctic Peninsula and examined the dietary carbon sources, trophic position, and body condition of five euphausiid species (Euphausia crystallorophias, E. frigida, E. superba post-larvae and larvae, E. triacantha, and Thysanoessa macrura) in relation to environmental conditions each year. In addition to general patterns among taxa, we focused on how contrasting conditions during an ENSO-neutral year (2014) and an ENSO-positive year (2016) affected the type, quality, and distribution of food resources each year, as well as the body condition of each species. We observed high chlorophyll-a, low salinity, and shallow upper mixed-layer depths in 2014, and low chlorophyll-a, high salinity, and deep upper mixed-layer depths in 2016. Carbon sources varied among years, with most species enriched in δ13C when ENSO conditions were dominant. Trophic position and body condition also varied among years, with different responses among species depending on conditions; inter-annual variation in δ15N was minimal, while E. triacantha was the only species with notably lower body condition in 2016. We conclude that ENSO conditions around the northern Antarctic Peninsula may result in a more favorable feeding environment for all euphausiid species except E. triacantha, which may be the most negatively impacted by the predicted increase in ENSO conditions.

Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America

Abstract. Around 80 % of global soybean supply is produced in southeast South America (SESA), central Brazil (CB) and the United States (US) alone. This concentration of production in few regions makes global soybean supply sensitive to spatially compounding harvest failures. Weather variability is a key driver of soybean variability, with soybeans being especially vulnerable to hot and dry conditions during the reproductive growth stage in summer. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections can influence summer weather conditions across the Americas, presenting potential risks for spatially compounding harvest failures. Here, we develop causal structural models to quantify the influence of ENSO on soybean yields via mediating variables like local weather conditions and extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We show that soybean yields are predominately driven by soil moisture conditions in summer, explaining ∼50 %, 18 % and 40 % of yield variability in SESA, CB and the US respectively. Summer soil moisture is strongly driven by spring soil moisture, as well as by remote extratropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our causal models show that persistent negative ENSO anomalies of −1.5 standard deviation (SD) lead to a −0.4 SD soybean reduction in the US and SESA. When spring soil moisture and extratropical SST precursors are pronouncedly negative (−1.5 SD), then estimated soybean losses increase to −0.9 SD for the US and SESA. Thus, by influencing extratropical SSTs and spring soil moisture, persistent La Niñas can trigger substantial soybean losses in both the US and SESA, with only minor potential gains in CB. Our findings highlight the physical pathways by which ENSO conditions can drive spatially compounding events. Such information may increase preparedness against climate-related global soybean supply shocks.

The Combined Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall

Abstract This study first re-examines the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on weekly rainfall probabilities and wind anomalies across Australia, motivated by the need for a contemporary understanding of the MJO’s influence on Australian rainfall, whether this has changed from a previous assessment published in 2009. With an extra 15 years of observations, we show that the strong impact of MJO phases 5 and 6 on northern Australia’s austral summer rainfall has weakened by around 5% over Australia’s Top End. In addition, austral spring has seen a weakening of the suppressed rainfall teleconnection with MJO phases 2 and 3 over southeast Australia. The weakened relationships make it a little harder to use the MJO to explain rainfall variations over northern Australia in summer and southeast Australia in spring in the current climate. The study’s second motivation is to further document the combined influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the MJO on rainfall. In summer during El Niño, as compared with La Niña or neutral ENSO conditions, there are stronger reductions in rainfall probabilities over northern Australia associated with the dry MJO phases 8, 1, and 2, but the significantly increased rainfall probabilities in MJO phases 5 and 6 remain much the same. Indeed, the MJO dominates over ENSO in its influence on weekly rainfall probabilities in the north in summer. In contrast, ENSO tends to dominate across subtropical and southern Australia in spring. The updated probability maps are an important resource for estimating the intraseasonal influence of the MJO and ENSO on Australian rainfall. Significance Statement Accompanying forecasts of multiweek rainfall, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology provide average condition maps showing the long-term relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and Australian weekly rainfall. Motivated by discussions with northern Australian beef producers, we updated the maps using high-resolution data and found that in the austral summer, the association between the MJO and northern rainfall has weakened in the past 15 years. Despite this, the MJO still dominates over El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a driver of changes in week-to-week rainfall over northern Australia in summer, although ENSO dominates farther south in spring. This study gives users an improved understanding of what to expect in terms of upcoming weekly weather when interpreting rainfall and MJO predictions.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of dry extreme rainfall events over Northeast Thailand

The interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) strongly modulate sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall variability, leading to dry extreme rainfall events (DEREs) over Northeast (NE) Thailand. In this study, the ability of climate models to simulate the ENSO-BSISO-induced DEREs and associated synoptic features are evaluated using self-organizing maps. Observed DEREs occur most frequently during ENSO Neutral and La Niña conditions, when enhanced convection is located over central India and the Bay of Bengal. The intensity of observed DEREs are strengthened during El Niño when enhanced convection is observed over the western Pacific region. The climate models exhibit a diverse frequency of DEREs during ENSO phases, with some models showing better skill than others. On intraseasonal time scales, observed DEREs are favored when enhanced BSISO convection in phases 3–5 is located over the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific region. Five models out of the 19 examined capture the observed pattern during BSISO phases 4 and 5, while only three models capture the BSISO phase 3 behavior. Composite maps of observed DEREs during the combined BSISO and ENSO conditions indicate that BSISO convection increases (decreases) DERE frequency during El Niño and Neutral (La Niña) phase(s). Climate models can simulate the occurrence of dry events associated with the combined BSISO and ENSO phases, but they do so in different BSISO phases.

Maize and ancient Maya droughts

The ancient Maya culture of Mesoamerica shaped landscapes for centuries, in an area where maize (Zeamays) cultivation is considered a fundamental crop in the diet of present and ancient Mesoamerican cultures. Pollen records from sites with different environmental and climatic conditions of the Yucatán Peninsula (Mexico) and Peten (Guatemala) evidence a clear relationship between increased maize pollen and periods of reduced precipitation caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while moist periods are characterized by low maize pollen presence. ENSO conditions were not evenly distributed across the Yucatán Peninsula, and regional droughts vary according to regional climate and geographical conditions. Our results indicate a strong relationship of increased maize and tropical forest decrease with dry periods, while the Late Preclassic Humid Period (ca. 500–200 BCE) is characterized by the absence of maize pollen. The dry Late Preclassic (300 BCE-250 CE) was a key period for increased maize production, suggesting a new conceptualization of maize. Maize changed from a basic diet crop to a pragmatic product to face adverse environmental conditions.