El Nino-Southern Oscillation Behavior Research Articles

The advance of El Niño phase locking from period 1982–2000 to 2001–2022

The mature phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exhibit a distinct tendency to peak towards the end of the calendar year, a phenomenon commonly referred to as ENSO phase locking. This phase locking is a fundamental property of the ENSO. The observed characteristics of phase locking are intricately tied to the seasonality of ENSO-related Sea Surface Temperature (SST) growth rate. In this study, notable observational evidence is presented: the strength of phase locking of El Niño weakened, and the phase locking advanced to peak at an earlier time during the period 2001 to 2022 compared to 1982 to 2000. The advancement of El Niño Phase Locking is explored by analyzing the contributions of different oceanic feedbacks to the El Niño phenomenon. Specifically, our findings highlight the significant role of nonlinear advective dynamic heating (NDH), which is influenced by the decrease in equatorial pacific surface zonal current anomaly and the equatorial pacific surface zonal gradient of sea SST anomaly. This investigation enhances our understanding of the evolving dynamics of El Niño phase locking, shedding light on the intricate interplay of oceanic feedbacks in influencing this fundamental aspect of ENSO behavior.

Assessing the drift of fish aggregating devices in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract. The tropical Pacific Ocean is characterized by its dominant zonal flow, strong climate dependence on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and abundant tuna stocks. Tuna fisheries in the West and Central Pacific Ocean accounted for 55 % of the world-wide tuna catch in 2019 and are one of the main sources of income in many Pacific island nations. One of the dominant fishing methods in this region relies on the use of drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs): rafts with long underwater appendages (on average 50 m deep) that aggregate fish. Although currents such as the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) and South Equatorial Current (SEC) in the tropical Pacific Ocean vary strongly with ENSO, little is known about the impact of this variability in flow on dFAD dispersion. In this study, virtual Lagrangian particles are tracked for the period 2006 to 2021 over the domain in a 3D hydrodynamic model and are advected in simulations with only surface flow, as well as simulations using a depth-averaged horizontal flow over the upper 50 m, representing virtual dFADs. Zonal displacements, eddy-like behaviour and ENSO variability are then studied for both types of virtual particles. It was found that virtual particles advected by surface flow only are displaced up to 35 % farther than virtual dFADs subjected to a depth-averaged flow, but no other major differences were found in dispersion patterns. The strongest correlations between ENSO and virtual dFAD dispersion for the assessed variables were found in the West Pacific Ocean, with Pearson correlation coefficients of up to 0.59 for virtual dFAD displacement. Connections between ENSO and eddy-like behaviour were found in the western part of the SEC, indicating more circulation and meandering during El Niño. These findings may be useful for improving sustainable deployment strategies during ENSO events and understanding the ocean processes driving the distribution of dFADs.

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part I: Uniqueness and Sensitivity of the ENSO Mode

Abstract The basic dynamics of the spatiotemporal diversity for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the subject of extensive research and, while several hypotheses have been proposed, remains elusive. One promising line of studies suggests that the observed eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO may originate from two coexisting leading ENSO modes. We show that the coexistence of unstable EP-like and CP-like modes in these studies arises from contaminated linear stability analysis due to unnoticed numerical scheme caveats. In this two-part study, we further investigate the dynamics of ENSO diversity within a Cane–Zebiak-type model. We first revisit the linear stability issue to demonstrate that only one ENSO-like linear leading mode exists under realistic climate conditions. This single leading ENSO mode can be linked to either a coupled recharge-oscillator (RO) mode favored by the thermocline feedback or a wave-oscillator (WO) mode favored by the zonal advective feedback at the weak air–sea coupling end. Strong competition between the RO and WO modes for their prominence in shaping this ENSO mode into a generalized RO mode makes it sensitive to moderate changes in these two key feedbacks. Modulations of climate conditions yield corresponding modulations in spatial pattern, amplitude, and period associated with this ENSO mode. However, the ENSO behavior undergoing this linear climate condition modulations alone does not seem consistent with the observed ENSO diversity, suggesting the inadequacy of linear dynamics in explaining ENSO diversity. A nonlinear mechanism for ENSO diversity will be proposed and discussed in Part II.

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part II: Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Forcing

Abstract In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, a phenomenon known as ENSO spatiotemporal diversity. This diversity is fundamentally generated by deterministic nonlinear pathways to chaos via the period-doubling route and, more prevailingly, the subharmonic resonance route with the presence of a seasonally varying basic state. When residing in the weakly nonlinear regime, the coupled system sustains a weak periodic oscillation with a mixed CP/EP pattern as captured by the linear ENSO mode. With a stronger nonlinearity effect, the ENSO behavior experiences a period-doubling bifurcation. The single ENSO orbit splits into coexisting CP-like and EP-like ENSO orbits. A sequence of period-doubling bifurcation results in an aperiodic oscillation featuring irregular CP and EP ENSO occurrences. The overlapping of subharmonic resonances between ENSO and the seasonal cycle allows this ENSO irregularity and diversity to be more readily excited. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the coupled system is dominated by regular EP ENSO. The deterministic ENSO spatiotemporal diversity is thus confined to a relatively narrow range corresponding to a moderately unstable ENSO mode. Stochastic forcing broadens this range and allows ENSO diversity to occur when the ENSO mode is weakly subcritical. A close relationship among a weakened mean zonal temperature gradient, stronger ENSO activity, and more (fewer) occurrences of EP (CP) ENSO is noted, indicating that ENSO–mean state interaction may yield ENSO regime modulations on the multidecadal time scale.

Nonstationary footprints of ENSO in the Mekong River Delta hydrology

The Mekong River Delta (MRD) is an essential agricultural area for the worldwide rice supply. Floods and droughts triggered by El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) have been threatening sustenance in the MRD. Sustainable food supplies require understanding the response of the MRD hydrology to the changing ENSO behaviour in recent decades. Here, we reconstructed the annual rainfall maxima in the MRD using the oceanic paleoclimate proxy from coral skeletons and compared them with ENSO indexes. Annual minima of coral-based seawater oxygen isotope (δ18Osw) correlated with annual rainfall maxima, which allowed to extend rainfall data from 1924 to the recent. The annual rainfall maxima based on δ18Osw negatively correlated with the central Pacific El Niño index. This suggested that La Niña and central Pacific El Niño events lead to heavy and light rainy seasons. The heavy rainy season had more serious impacts in recent decades, which likely increases the flood risk. In contrast, the frequency and rainfall amount of the light rainy season has not changed significantly, although a catastrophic drought has hit the MRD. Our finding concludes that the impact of the ENSO event on MRD hydrology is inconsistent in the past century.

Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback

AbstractInteractions between ocean basins affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), altering its impacts on society. Here, we explore the effect of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on ENSO behavior using idealized experiments performed with the NCAR‐CESM1 model. Comparing warm (AMV+) to cold (AMV−) AMV conditions, we find that ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are reduced by ∼10% and ENSO precipitation anomalies are shifted to the west during El Niño and east during La Niña. Using the Bjerknes stability index, we attribute the reduction in ENSO variability to a weakened thermocline feedback in boreal autumn. In AMV+, the Walker circulation and trade winds strengthen over the tropical Pacific, increasing the background zonal SST gradient. The background changes shift ENSO anomalies westwards, with wind stress anomalies more confined to the west. We suggest the changes in ENSO‐wind stress decrease the strength of the thermocline feedback in the east, eventually reducing ENSO growth rate.

Robust Evaluation of ENSO in Climate Models: How Many Ensemble Members Are Needed?

AbstractLarge ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application is an important experimental design criterion. We estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model’s ability to capture observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior by utilizing the recently developed International CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package. Using the larger ensembles available from CMIP6 and the US CLIVAR Large Ensemble Working Group, we find that larger ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics (N > 50) and physical processes (N > 50) than the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥ 6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our study quantifies how larger ensembles are required to robustly evaluate simulated ENSO behavior, thereby providing some guidance for the design of model ensembles.

Diversity in the Persistence of El Niño Events Over the Last Millennium

AbstractThe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of internal climate variability with far‐reaching impacts. Here, we consider an important aspect of ENSO behavior: the diversity in the persistence of El Niño events. We examine the occurrence of multi‐year El Niño events in instrumental observations, a suite of global climate model simulations of the last millennium, and paleoclimate archives. We find evidence of multi‐year El Niño events in all data sources considered, with a wide range of variability in the frequency of such events across and within the individual sources. Although scarce over the relatively brief satellite era, multi‐year El Niño events are often associated with the warmest El Niño events in observations and most models. Furthermore, we show that multi‐year El Niño events augment the persistence of associated hydroclimate anomalies, which may compound the impacts on vulnerable economies and ecosystems within and beyond the tropical Pacific sector.

Transition Between Forced and Oscillatory ENSO Behavior Over the Last Century

AbstractAs the largest mode of coupled climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) carries consequences for weather patterns worldwide. Because of its impacts, and the subsequent importance of predicting when ENSO might occur, there has been lengthy research into precursor mechanisms that initiate ENSO events. In this paper, thanks to the length of the SODAsi.3 data set, we study the relation between ENSO and a subset of known precursors over 140 years (1871–2011). We uncover that the influence of North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)‐related precursors—namely the Trade Wind Charging and North Pacific Meridional Mode (TWC/NPMM)—upon ENSO is nonstationary. The TWC/NPMM‐ENSO coupling is strong from 1871 to 1920, then weakens before regaining significance from 1960 onward. Importantly, in the intervening period between 1920 and 1960, not only does the TWC/NPMM‐ENSO connection disappear, there are also no other wind‐related drivers preceding ENSO events during this period. We find that in the absence of wind‐driven precursors during this intervening period the temporal characteristics of ENSO variability itself change, as the signal oscillates within a relatively narrow 6–7‐year periodicity band. These features set this intervening period apart from what we see during the first and last periods when the ENSO signal is noisier, and its power is distributed over a wider range of periodicities spanning from 2 to 6 years. These results lead us to hypothesize that, during the last 140 years, ENSO shifted between a stochastically forced interannual mode of variability, to a multiannual, quasi‐regular one with a self‐sustained oscillation.

Sensitivity of ENSO Simulation to the Convection Schemes in the NESM3 Climate System Model: Atmospheric Processes

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent climate system in the tropical Pacific. However, its simulation, including the amplitude, phase locking, and asymmetry of its two phases, is not well reproduced by the current climate system models. In this study, the sensitivity of the ENSO simulation to the convection schemes is discussed using the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System version 3.0 (NESM3) model. Three convection schemes, including the default, the default coupled with the stochastic multicloud model (SMCM), and the default used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are implemented. The model results reveal that the low-level cloud cover and surface net shortwave radiation are best represented over the tropical Pacific in the model containing the SMCM. The simulations of the ENSO behavior’s response to changes in the convection scheme are not uniform. The model results reveal that the model containing the SMCM performs best in terms of simulating the seasonal cycle of the sea surface temperature anomaly along the equatorial Pacific, the phase locking, and the power spectrum of ENSO but with a modest ENSO amplitude. Compared to the model containing the default convection scheme, the coupling of the default scheme and the SMCM provides a good simulation of the ENSO’s asymmetry, while the model containing the CMIP6 convection scheme outperforms the others in terms of the simulation of the ENSO’s amplitude. Two atmospheric feedback processes were further discussed to investigate the factors controlling the ENSO’s amplitude. The analyses revealed that the strongest positive atmospheric Bjerknes feedback and the thermodynamic damping of the surface net heat flux occurred in the model containing the CMIP6 convection scheme, suggesting that the atmospheric Bjerknes feedback may overwhelm the heat flux damping feedback when determining the ENSO’s amplitude. The results of this study demonstrate that perfectly modeling and predicting the ENSO is not simple, and it is still a large challenge and issue for the entire model community in the future.

Modulation of late Pleistocene ENSO strength by the tropical Pacific thermocline

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is highly dependent on coupled atmosphere-ocean interactions and feedbacks, suggesting a tight relationship between ENSO strength and background climate conditions. However, the extent to which background climate state determines ENSO behavior remains in question. Here we present reconstructions of total variability and El Niño amplitude from individual foraminifera distributions at discrete time intervals over the past ~285,000 years across varying atmospheric CO2 levels, global ice volume and sea level, and orbital insolation forcing. Our results show a strong correlation between eastern tropical Pacific Ocean mixed-layer thickness and both El Niño amplitude and central Pacific variability. This ENSO-thermocline relationship implicates upwelling feedbacks as the major factor controlling ENSO strength on millennial time scales. The primacy of the upwelling feedback in shaping ENSO behavior across many different background states suggests accurate quantification and modeling of this feedback is essential for predicting ENSO’s behavior under future climate conditions.

Assessment of future ENSO changes in a CMIP3/CMIP5 multi‐model and multi‐index framework

ABSTRACTAs main mode of interannual climate variability with worldwide teleconnections, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) holds high ecological, economical and social relevance. So far, studies on future ENSO changes draw a rather incoherent picture across climate models and ENSO indices. Here, we assess climate change signals and respective uncertainties in the frequency and variance of ENSO events using a comprehensive multidimensional approach: 10 different ENSO indices based on five climate variables and derived from four CMIP3 and nine CMIP5 models are investigated and compared systematically. Finally, one dimension of the problem (of various indices and various models as well as realizations) is removed by combining the 10 ENSO indices to a single ‘super’‐index, defined in the Empirical Orthogonal Function space.The most common signal across models and indices is found to be an increase of year‐to‐year variability of ENSO events until the end of our century, especially in the combined index. A significant strengthening in frequency occurs only in terms of La Niña events in some indices, whereas El Niño events appear to be barely sensitive to radiative forcing during the 21st century. This study highlights the importance of taking a more holistic multi‐model and multi‐index viewpoint when assessing future changes in ENSO behaviour and addressing higher‐moment characteristics of ENSO.

Accounting for centennial-scale variability when detecting changes in ENSO: A study of the Pliocene

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability. However, climate models are inconsistent in future predictions of ENSO, and long term variations in ENSO cannot be quantified from the short instrumental records available. Here we analyse ENSO behaviour in millennial-scale climate simulations of a warm climate of the past, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼3.3 − 3.0Ma). We consider centennial-scale variability in ENSO for both the mPWP and the preindustrial, and consider which changes between the two climates are detectable above this variability. We find that El Nino typically occurred 12% less frequently in the mPWP but with a 20% longer duration, and with stronger amplitude in precipitation and temperature. However low frequency variability in ENSO meant that Pliocene-preindustrial changes in El Nino temperature amplitude in the NINO3.4 region (5° N-5° S, 170° W-120° W) were not always detectable. The Pliocene-preindustrial El Nino temperature signal in the NINO4 region (5° N-5° S, 160° E-150° W) and the El Nino precipitation signal are usually larger than centennial scale variations of El Nino amplitude, and provide consistent indications of ENSO amplitude change. The enhanced mPWP temperature signal in the NINO4 region is associated with an increase in Central Pacific El Nino events similar to those observed in recent decades and predicted for the future. This study highlights the importance of considering centennial scale variability when comparing ENSO changes between two climate states. If centennial scale variability in ENSO has not first been established, results suggesting changes in ENSO behaviour may not be robust.

Reassessing Conceptual Models of ENSO

Abstract The complex nature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often simplified through the use of conceptual models, each of which offers a different perspective on the ocean–atmosphere feedbacks underpinning the ENSO cycle. One theory, the unified oscillator, combines a variety of conceptual frameworks in the form of a coupled system of delay differential equations. The system produces a self-sustained oscillation on interannual time scales. While the unified oscillator is assumed to provide a more complete conceptual framework of ENSO behaviors than the models it incorporates, its formulation and performance have not been systematically assessed. This paper investigates the accuracy of the unified oscillator through its ability to replicate the ENSO cycle modeled by flux-forced output from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM). The anomalous sea surface temperature equation reproduces the main features of the corresponding tendency modeled by ACCESS-OM reasonably well. However, the remaining equations for the thermocline depth anomaly and zonal wind stress anomalies are unable to accurately replicate the corresponding tendencies in ACCESS-OM. Modifications to the unified oscillator, including a diagnostic form of the zonal wind stress anomaly equations, improve its ability to emulate simulated ENSO tendencies. Despite these improvements, the unified oscillator model is less adept than the delayed oscillator model it incorporates in capturing ENSO behavior in ACCESS-OM, bringing into question its usefulness as a unifying ENSO framework.

Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium

Abstract. Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records can provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed on long timescales, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are typically underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the long-term characteristics of ENSO and its teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5; Taylor et al., 2012). We show that the relationship between ENSO conditions (NINO3.4) and local climates across the Pacific basin differs significantly for 100-year epochs defining the Last Millennium and the historical period 1906–2005. Furthermore, models demonstrate decadal- to centennial-scale modulation of ENSO behaviour during the Last Millennium. Overall, results suggest that the stability of teleconnections may be regionally dependent and that proxy climate records may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO may require evidence to be considered over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those relating to local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the central Pacific.

Effectiveness of the Bjerknes stability index in representing ocean dynamics

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring coupled phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean that relies on ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. The Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), derived from the mixed-layer heat budget, aims to quantify the ENSO feedback process in order to explore the linear stability properties of ENSO. More recently, the BJ index has been used for model intercomparisons, particularly for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. This study investigates the effectiveness of the BJ index in representing the key ENSO ocean feedbacks—namely the thermocline, zonal advective, and Ekman feedbacks—by evaluating the amplitudes and phases of the BJ index terms against the corresponding heat budget terms from which they were derived. The output from Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Ocean Model (a global ocean/sea ice flux-forced model) is used to calculate the heat budget in the equatorial Pacific. Through the model evaluation process, the robustness of the BJ index terms are tested. We find that the BJ index overestimates the relative importance of the thermocline feedback to the zonal advective feedback when compared with the corresponding terms from the heat budget equation. The assumption of linearity between variables in the BJ index formulation is the primary reason for these differences. Our results imply that a model intercomparison relying on the BJ index to explain ENSO behavior is not necessarily an accurate quantification of dynamical differences between models that are inherently nonlinear. For these reasons, the BJ index may not fully explain underpinning changes in ENSO under global warming scenarios.

Interdecadal Amplitude Modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Its Impact on Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability*

Abstract The amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) displays pronounced interdecadal modulations in observations. The mechanisms for the amplitude modulation are investigated using a 2000-yr preindustrial control integration from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). ENSO amplitude modulation is highly correlated with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), which features equatorial zonal dipoles in sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface temperature along the thermocline. Experiments with an ocean general circulation model indicate that both interannual and decadal-scale wind variability are required to generate decadal-scale tropical Pacific temperature anomalies at the sea surface and along the thermocline. Even a purely interannual and sinusoidal wind forcing can produce substantial decadal-scale effects in the equatorial Pacific, with SST cooling in the west, subsurface warming along the thermocline, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in the east. A mechanism is proposed by which residual effects of ENSO could serve to alter subsequent ENSO stability, possibly contributing to long-lasting epochs of extreme ENSO behavior via a coupled feedback with TPDV.

Highly Variable El Niño–Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large changes in global climate patterns from year to year, yet its sensitivity to continued anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is uncertain. We analyzed fossil coral reconstructions of ENSO spanning the past 7000 years from the Northern Line Islands, located in the center of action for ENSO. The corals document highly variable ENSO activity, with no evidence for a systematic trend in ENSO variance, which is contrary to some models that exhibit a response to insolation forcing over this same period. Twentieth-century ENSO variance is significantly higher than average fossil coral ENSO variance but is not unprecedented. Our results suggest that forced changes in ENSO, whether natural or anthropogenic, may be difficult to detect against a background of large internal variability.

ENSO/SAM interactions during the middle and late Holocene

A new chronology of large magnitude rainfall events derived from the continuous high-resolution Lake Tutira storm sediment record covers the last 6800 years and provides the first insight into changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to the higher southern latitudes to be obtained from New Zealand. Synthesis with independent paleoclimate records from the tropical Pacific and Antarctica also reveals a millennial-scale waxing and waning of the teleconnections that were not visible in the narrow historical window previously used to view interactions between ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Consistent with modern ENSO behaviour, we find teleconnections to the Southwest Pacific varied throughout the middle and late Holocene, depending on the strength and phase of ENSO and the phase of the SAM. We suggest that precession-driven changes in the seasonal cycle of solar radiation exert a first-order control on the interaction between the two climate modes. Consequently, their present status may neither be indicative of conditions that prevailed earlier in the Holocene, nor of those that might be associated with future climate changes in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics.

Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium

Our ability to predict El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity is hampered by the relatively short length of the instrumental record. An annually resolved record of ENSO variability over the past millennium based on tree rings indicates that ENSO amplitude varies on a 50–90 year cycle, providing an important constraint for improving predictions. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) conditions in the tropical Pacific at intervals of 2–8 years1,2. The amplitude of ENSO variability affects the occurrence and predictability of climate extremes around the world3,4, but our ability to detect and predict changes in ENSO amplitude is limited by the fact that the instrumental record is too short to characterize its natural variability5,6,7,8. Here we use the North American Drought Atlas9,10—a database of drought reconstructions based on tree-ring records—to produce a continuous, annually resolved record of ENSO variability over the past 1,100 years. Our record is in broad agreement with independent, ENSO-sensitive proxy records in the Pacific and surrounding regions. Together, these records indicate that ENSO amplitude exhibits a quasi-regular cycle of 50–90 years that is closely coupled to the tropical Pacific mean state. Anomalously warm conditions in the eastern Pacific are associated with enhanced ENSO variability, consistent with model simulations11. The quasi-periodic ENSO amplitude modulation reported here offers a key observational constraint for improving models and their prediction of ENSO behaviour linked to global warming.