El Nino And Southern Oscillation Research Articles

Influence of global teleconnections on long-term variability in flood seasonality across peninsular India

Abstract Climate change and natural climate variability impact not only the frequency and magnitude of floods but also flood seasonality. However, limited to no study has investigated the seasonality in flood occurrence in peninsular Indian rivers. The Central Water Commission opening its long-term records of river stage and discharge gathered from many monitoring stations offers a unique opportunity to analyse flood seasonality. The primary aims of this study are to identify the time of the year when floods are most likely, investigate whether the occurrence of floods has changed over time due to the influence of climate change and natural climate variability, and determine the most significant large-scale and local climate drivers of flood seasonality. Stage and discharge data from 281 gauging stations across ten peninsular river basins are considered to identify the annual maximum gauge level for a gauging point while retaining the corresponding Julian day (also known as the date of occurrence or DO) for further analysis. Several attributes related to circular statistics are calculated from the DO series to find that 68% of the gauging stations experience floods during August, indicating the dominance of the monsoon system on DO. Preliminary analysis confirms that while most stations experience a non-stationarity in the DO series, a few stations exhibit a non-linear trend. Furthermore, this study develops a machine learning model with DO as predictand and 36 local and large-scale predictors to identify the dominant predictors of DO. The predictor importance metric shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explain DO variability better than other drivers. Moreover, since ENSO and PDO are teleconnected with the onset of monsoon and annual maximum rainfall (Pradhan et al., 2017; Choudhury et al., 2021), flood seasonality demonstrates a connection with both PDO and ENSO.

Impacts of ENSO on Tropical Pacific Chlorophyll Biomass Under Historical and RCP8.5 Scenarios

AbstractThe present study aims to investigate the influences of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on chlorophyll biomass in the tropical Pacific under historical and RCP8.5 scenarios with simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM‐LE) project. Large variance in surface chlorophyll concentrations is identified across the Peruvian Upwelling (PU), Equatorial Upwelling (EU), and Western Pacific (WP) regions within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest that responses of surface chlorophyll to ENSO in these regions are governed by different mechanisms. The increasing chlorophyll during La Niña is a consequence of increasing nutrients, influenced by local upwelling systems in the PU and EU regions, while the supplementary nutrients in the WP region arise from the eastern Pacific through stronger surface westward currents. Under RCP8.5 scenario, stronger water warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific leads to a remarkable reduction in the amplitudes of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of chlorophyll in both PU and EU regions. This results in less responsiveness of the chlorophyll biomass to El Niño and moderate La Niña compared to the historical period. However, though warming induces a decrease in chlorophyll concentrations in the WP region, the interannual variations of chlorophyll have shown an improvement in correlation with ENSO events. Meanwhile, despite the small phytoplankton‐dominated community being observed under future scenario, species dominance is likely to shift back to diatoms once extreme La Niña occurs, which is unseen in all El Niño and moderate La Niña cases.

Interdecadal Variations of Radiative Feedbacks Associated With the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in CMIP6 Models

AbstractInternally generated radiative feedback at interannual timescales can influence climate sensitivity estimates. This study has clarified the mechanisms of variability in radiative feedback associated with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation based on preindustrial control simulations for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Radiative feedback showed large modulation with a comparable magnitude to the intermodel uncertainty associated with internal changes in the zonal gradient of the ocean thermocline and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific on interdecadal timescales. When the interdecadal SST anomalies in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific were simulated as positive and negative, respectively, the statistical properties of the interannual variations were also modified with diminished Walker circulation changes per unit of global mean surface temperature rise. Meanwhile, the enhanced local Hadley circulation led to a middle‐to upper‐level cloud decrease and a low‐level cloud increase in the subtropics, causing enhanced negative radiative feedback as a global average.

Present and future of the South Asian summer monsoon’s rainy season over Northeast India

An iconic feature of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), a longer than June–September rainy season over Northeast India (NEI), while a much shorter one over northwest India is expected to be altered by climate change but an objective definition of the length of the monsoon rainy season (LRS) over the NEI is lacking. Here, defining the LRS objectively over NEI, we show that the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary driver of LRS, while rainfall during LRS is poorly correlated with the ENSO. In contrast to a significant decreasing trend of LRS and LRS-rainfall during the historical period, the projected LRS under the SSP5–8.5 scenario continues to decrease while the LRS-rainfall acquires a significant increasing trend over NEI. A significant increase in the impact of hydrological disasters is expected over NEI in the future due to the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme rain events within a shorter rainy season.

KEMAMPUAN RAMAL SISTEM PERKIRAAN IKLIM MUSIMAN MENGGUNAKAN FENOMENA ENSO DI KABUPATEN LOMBOK TENGAH, NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

Lombok Island, particularly the southern central part of Lombok, often experiences droughts that result in failed cultivation or harvests due to the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Therefore, the objective of this research is to determine the forecasting skill or predictive ability of a seasonal climate prediction system using the ENSO indicator in the Central Lombok regency, West Nusa Tenggara Province. This study employs a descriptive method by comparing the average rainfall in El Nino years with non-El Nino years. The research is conducted in the Central Lombok regency, which is divided into the northern and southern parts. The data used includes monthly precipitation recorded by BMKG for approximately 50 years (1970-2019) in all districts of Central Lombok. The SOI data is accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml. The results of this study indicate that the use of the ENSO indicator to forecast seasonal rainfall patterns in the Central Lombok regency shows high consistency and significant predictive ability. There is no significant difference in the predictive ability and consistency of the forecast results between the northern and southern parts of Central Lombok. In general, the predictive ability during the dry season exhibits higher consistency (25%) compared to the rainy season (14%).

The Philippine springtime (February–April) sub-seasonal rainfall extremes and extended-range forecast skill assessment using the S2S database

During the first half month of April 2022, the Philippines experienced severe disasters associated with the weak but deadly tropical storm Megi that caused 214 deaths and two sunken ships. This prompted us to investigate the extended-range prediction skill of the springtime Philippine sub-seasonal scale rainfall extremes in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction database. The results suggest that the S2S models can well predict the extremity of the 2022 springtime sub-seasonal peak rainfall event (SPRE) ten days ahead. In addition to the La Niña sea surface temperature anomalies, this prolonged rainfall event, from March 26 - April 14, 2022, was associated with an anomalous cyclonic circulation straddled over the South China Sea (SCS) and the Philippine Sea and persisted for two weeks. The strong relationship between the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the springtime (February–April) rainfall variability in the Philippines is clearly revealed in the analysis of 25 years of observational and hindcast data. The extremely wet SPREs tend to occur during the La Niña springs, while the extremely dry SPREs tend to occur during the El Niño springs. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves that are capable of modulating the sub-seasonal rainfall extremes were weak when the deadly SPRE occurred in April 2022. Thus, the extended-range forecast skill of this example can be interpreted as the baseline skill of the current S2S prediction revealed in the multi-model database. The findings suggest that the SPRE is a useful item to be included in the operational forecast as potential opportunities to harness the benefits of S2S prediction and applications.

Enso and climate variability in Papua

The interaction of sea-atmosphere in the middle and east equators of the Pacific Ocean identified as El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the interannual climate variability in Indonesia. Extremes phase ENSO, EL-Niño, and La-Niña have significant impacts on all sectors including agriculture, maritime, fishery, healthy, forest fire, transportation, etc. To anticipate ENSO impacts, it is required to identify the impacts of ENSO on climate variability in specific regions. In this study, we analyze the impact of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in several areas in Papua Islands namely Merauke, Jayapura, Manokwari, and Wamena. The result of the analysis reveals that the rainfall characteristics in Merauke, Jayapura, Manokwari, and Wamena are influenced by ENSO with different influences among areas. In general, onset of the rainy season is earlier in La Nina years in comparison to the normal year and the onset of the dry season is come in advance in El-Niño years. The annual rainfall in La-Nina year is higher than in normal years and El-Niño year is lower than in normal years. The anomaly of rainfall as impact ENSO varies differently among areas in Papua.

Enhanced impact of the Aleutian Low on increasing the Central Pacific ENSO in recent decades

In this study, we reveal a marked enhanced impact of the early-spring Aleutian Low (AL) on the following winter El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) after the late-1990s. This enhanced impact of the early-spring AL may have an important contribution to the increased emergence of the central Pacific ENSO during recent decades. After the late-1990s, decrease (increase) in the early-spring AL strength tends to induce an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over subtropical North Pacific via wave-mean flow interaction. The associated westerly (easterly) wind anomalies to the south side of the subtropical anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the tropical western Pacific contribute to occurrence of central Pacific-like El Niño (La Niña) in the following winter via tropical Bjerknes feedback. Further, the subtropical anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) leads to sea surface temperature (SST) increase (decrease) in the equatorial Pacific in the following summer via wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, which further contributes to succeeding central Pacific-like El Niño (La Niña). Enhanced impact of early-spring AL on ENSO is attributable to enhancement of the mean circulation over the North Pacific, which leads to increased wave-mean flow interaction and strengthened WES feedback after the late-1990s. The results offer the potential to advance our understanding of the factors for the reduced prediction skill of ENSO since the late-1990s.

A One-Dimensional Blocking Index Becomes Two-Dimensional Using GIS Technology

Many previous studies of the occurrence of blocking anticyclones, their characteristics, and dynamics have defined the onset longitude using the one-dimensional zonal index type criterion proposed by Lejenas and Okland. In addition to examining the blocking event itself, the onset longitude was determined to start at the nearest five degrees longitude using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalyses that were used to identify the events. In this study, each blocking event in the University of Missouri Blocking Archive was re-examined to identify an onset latitude, and this information was added to the archive. The events were then plotted and displayed on a map of the Northern or Southern Hemisphere using Geographic Information System (GIS) software housed at the University of Missouri as different colored and sized dots according to block intensity and duration, respectively. This allowed for a comparison of blocking events in the archive above to studies that used a two-dimensional index. Then the common onset regions were divided by phase of the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the typical onset of intense and persistent blocking events could be examined. The results found a favorable comparison between the onset regions identified here and those found in previous studies that used a two-dimensional blocking index. Additionally, there was variability identified in the onset regions of blocking in both hemispheres by ENSO phase, including the location of more intense and persistent events.

Increase in the Intensity of Air–Sea Coupling in the Key ENSO Region during 1955–2020

The El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon of air–sea coupling in the tropical Pacific, has strong response to global climate change. In this study, the primary region where ENSO occurred during the period 1955–2020 was selected as the key ENSO region, and the changes in air–sea coupling in this region were explored. The New Southern Oscillation Index (NSOI), modified from the previous Southern Oscillation Index, represents atmospheric changes, and the Niño-3.4 index represents oceanic changes. The absolute value of the running correlation coefficient between the Niño-3.4 index and NSOI in the 121-month time window was defined as the Intensity of Air–Sea Coupling (IASC) in the key ENSO region. The results showed that the IASC has significantly increased, with a confidence level of 95%, during the period 1955–2020, and the range where the correlation coefficient between the Niño-3.4 index and the sea level pressure anomaly over the key ENSO region was greater than 0.6 has evidently expanded in the context of global warming, which corresponded to the increase in IASC. Moreover, the coupling positions of sea surface temperature and wind anomalies changed, tending to the east of the equatorial Pacific during 1977–1998, and to the west during 1999–2020.

Understanding Water Level Changes in the Great Lakes by an ICA-Based Merging of Multi-Mission Altimetry Measurements

Accurately monitoring spatio-temporal changes in lake water levels is important for studying the impacts of climate change on freshwater resources, and for predicting natural hazards. In this study, we applied multi-mission radar satellite altimetry data from the Laurentian Great Lakes, North America to optimally reconstruct multi-decadal lake-wide spatio-temporal changes of water level. We used the results to study physical processes such as teleconnections of El Niño and southern oscillation (ENSO) episodes over approximately the past three-and-a-half decades (1985–2018). First, we assessed three reconstruction methods, namely the standard empirical orthogonal function (EOF), complex EOF (CEOF), and complex independent component analysis (CICA), to model the lake-wide changes of water level. The performance of these techniques was evaluated using in-situ gauge data, after correcting the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process using a contemporary GIA forward model. While altimeter-measured water level was much less affected by GIA, the averaged gauge-measured water level was found to have increased up to 14 cm over the three decades. Our results indicate that the CICA-reconstructed 35-year lake level was more accurate than the other two techniques. The correlation coefficients between the CICA reconstruction and the in situ water-level data were 0.96, 0.99, 0.97, 0.97, and 0.95, for Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Erie, and Lake Ontario, respectively; ~7% higher than the original altimetry data. The root mean squares of errors (RMSE) were 6.07 cm, 4.89 cm, 9.27 cm, 7.71 cm, and 9.88 cm, respectively, for each of the lakes, and ~44% less than differencing with the original altimetry data. Furthermore, the CICA results indicated that the water-level changes in the Great Lakes were significantly correlated with ENSO, with correlation coefficients of 0.5–0.8. The lake levels were ~25 cm higher (~30 cm lower) than normal during EI Niño (La Niña) events.

Decadal Changes in the Annual Growth of Two Commercial Ommastrephid Species in the Pacific Ocean

Neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii and jumbo flying squid Dosidicus gigas are two important commercial ommastrephid species in the Pacific Ocean. As short-lived marine species, squids are highly susceptible to changes in climate and marine environments. According to samples collected from the northwest and southeast Pacific Ocean in different years, we explored the growth characteristics of these two squids in terms of their mantle length (ML) distribution and the relationship between mantle length and body weight (LWR), also considering the relative condition factors (Kn), and explored the effects of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on their growth. The results showed that the ML for O. bartramii and D. gigas had significant differences among different years and different sexes (p < 0.01), and the size of females was larger than that of males. LWR showed that both squids demonstrated a positive allometric growth pattern (b > 3), and parameters a and b were influenced by year and sex. Furthermore, there were significant differences in Kn in both squids for different years and different sexes (p < 0.01), and their interannual fluctuations were quite significant. In conclusion, the alterations in the marine environment caused by climate change had a significant impact on the growth of O. bartramii and D. gigas in this study. ENSO events had opposite effects on the growth of both squid species.

Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA)

In the backdrop of overwhelming evidences of associations between North-Atlantic (NA) sea-surface temperature (SST) and the Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), the lack of a quantitative nonlinear causal inference has been a roadblock for advancing ISMR predictability. Here, we advance a hypothesis of teleconnection between the NA-SST and ISMR, and establish the causality between the two using two different nonlinear causal inference techniques. We unravel that the NA-SST and the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two independent drivers of ISMR with the former contributing as much to ISMR variability as does the latter. Observations and climate model simulations support the NA-SST–ISMR causality through a Rossby wave-train driven by NA-SST that modulates the seasonal mean by forcing long active (break) spells of ISMR.

Estimation of Fluctuations and Global Tele-connections in the Monsoonal Rainfall and Associated Floods for Barmer District

Abstract: This paper is about the fluctuations and global teleconnections in the monsoonal rainfall and associated floods of Barmer district, Rajasthan, India. For investigation of precipitation and related floods, the precipitation information for period of 1901-2002 is collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for Barmer district. Inter-monsoon rainfall variability analysis, percent departure from mean, Normalized Accumulated Departure from Mean (NADM) and conditional probability technique for El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been used for the analyses of monsoonal rainfall data and its effect on floods. The outcomes demonstrate year to year varieties in the precipitation with huge takeoff from mean precipitation. It is seen that greater part of the floods are related with positive takeoff from mean precipitation. The NADM shows epochal conduct of high and low monsoon precipitation of the basin. For analysis of ENSO Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data is obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for years 1950-2019. It is observed that, during La Nina years the rainfall is higher than average annual rainfall. The analysis of ENSO reveals that the probability of the occurrence of the floods is high during cold (La Nina) events and it is very low during warm (El Nino) events. Keywords: Monsoon rainfall, Global Tele-connection, SST, ENSO effect, floods

Interannual Modulation of Subthermocline Eddy Kinetic Energy East of the Philippines

AbstractInterannual variation of subthermocline eddy kinetic energy (EKE) east of the Philippines is investigated based on mooring measurements during 2015–2019 and ocean‐state estimates during 1995–2017 from the Oceanic General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). Prominent interannual variation of EKE is detected below the thermocline east of the Philippine coast, which is closely related to the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and generally lags the Nino3.4 index by 14 months. Further energy diagnostic analysis indicates that the interannual variation of subthermocline EKE is controlled by both baroclinic and barotropic instability of the background flows and dominated by the barotropic instability especially. Barotropic instability in the southern part of the Philippine coast is associated with the subsurface component of the quasi‐permanent anticyclonic Halmahera Eddy (HE), while that in the northern part is closely related to the Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC). Both HE and MUC are modulated by the ENSO events. When El Niño occurs, negative sea surface height anomalies appear near the dateline and propagate westward in the form of the first‐mode baroclinic Rossby wave, exerting delayed impacts upon the western boundary currents east of the Philippine coast and further modulating the interannual variation of subthermocline EKE. Moreover, the barotropic energy conversion rate and its corresponding subthermocline EKE at lower latitudes respond relatively faster to ENSO due to the higher Rossby wave group velocity there.

The Trend and Interannual Variability of Marine Heatwaves over the Bay of Bengal

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are long-lasting extreme oceanic warming events that can cause devastating effects on warm-water corals and associated ecosystems. The linear trend and interannual variability of MHWs over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) during 1982–2020 are investigated by a high-resolution daily sea surface temperature (SST) dataset. In regions where warm-water coral reefs are concentrated, annual MHW days and frequency significantly increase during 1982–2020, at rates exceeding that of the global mean. The coldest boreal winter season witnesses significant and steady increase trends in MHW days and frequency. In contrast, the trend is insignificant in the climatological warmest season (March to June) south of 15° N in the BOB, mainly due to large interannual variability. El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates the interannual variability of BOB MHWs, which are highly consistent with the evolution of the mean SST. The negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also modulates the occurrences of MHWs, especially over the northeastern BOB. The two climate modes synergistically explain about 50~70% of the interannual variances in the BOB’s MHWs. Correlation analysis reveals that south of 15° N in the BOB, the effect of El Niño on MHWs is evident from the boreal autumn of its developing phase to the boreal summer of its decaying phase, along with limited influence from NAO. However, in the northeast of the BOB, the effect of El Niño merely emerges from April to August of its decaying stage. In comparison, boreal winter-to-spring NAO exerts a strong control over March-to-June MHWs in the northeastern BOB. The results suggest that various climate modes may jointly or separately influence MHWs at certain seasons and locations, which is important for the seasonal prediction of MHWs. Indeed, when combining the Niño3.4 mature winter index and boreal winter-to-spring NAO index to build a regression model, it is more effective in reproducing the BOB’s MHW frequency compared to the Niño3.4 index alone.

Diversity of ENSO‐Related Surface Temperature Response in Future Projection in CMIP6 Climate Models: Climate Change Scenario Versus ENSO Intensity

AbstractFew studies explore how the diversity of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related atmospheric response is influenced by anthropogenic forcing and ENSO intensity. We examine the diversity of surface temperature (Ts) anomalies related to weak, moderate and strong ENSO events in North America (NA) for present and future climates forced under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in CMIP6 climate models. When ENSO intensity is weaker, the NA Ts anomalies are more sensitive/variable to different SSP scenarios than moderate and strong ENSO. The NA Ts anomalies are more sensitive to the impacts of ENSO intensity under a sustainable climate change scenario, compared to the high SSP scenario. We discuss why the diversity of ENSO‐related Ts response projections differs in the combination of ENSO intensity and climate change scenarios.

Interdecadal Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Relationship Between Spring Arctic Oscillation and the Following Winter ENSO

Previous studies indicated that Arctic Oscillation (AO) in boreal spring is an important extratropical trigger for the outbreak of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the succedent winter. This study reveals that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a strong modulation on the linkage between the spring AO and the following winter ENSO. Particularly, impact of the spring AO on the succedent winter ENSO is strong during positive PDO phase (+PDO). By contrast, the spring AO-winter ENSO connection is weak during negative PDO phase (−PDO). During +PDO, positive spring AO induces a marked anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific via wave-mean flow interaction. The subtropical cyclonic anomaly leads to sea surface temperature (SST) warming and enhanced atmospheric heating there, which could further propagate southward to the tropical central Pacific via wind-evaporation-SST feedback mechanism and, thus, impact the following winter El Niño via the tropical process. During −PDO, the spring AO-generated SST, the atmospheric circulation, and the heating anomalies over the North Pacific are much weaker. As such, spring AO has weak impacts on the winter ENSO. The spring climatological storm track is stronger during +PDO than −PDO years due to an increase in the mean meridional temperature gradient over the North Pacific. Stronger storm track intensity during +PDO leads to stronger synoptic-scale eddy feedback to the mean flow, which results in stronger AO-related SST and atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific and, thus, the stronger impact of the spring AO on the following winter ENSO.

Global Estimate of Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Diapycnal Mixing and Its Links to Climate Variability

AbstractA mixing length theory which considers the impact of TC characters and upper ocean stratification, is used to estimate the tropical cyclone (TC) induced diapycnal diffusivity, and investigate the trend, interannual and interdecadal variability of TC‐induced diapycnal diffusivity in the globe and each basin. The annual mean climatology of the TC‐induced diapycnal diffusivity is consistent with previous research, with maximum values in the Western North Pacific (WP) ranging from 0.05 cm2/s up to 1 cm2/s. The trends of TC‐induced diapycnal diffusivity exhibit great inter‐basin differences, which are not only related with TC itself, but also the ocean stratification. On the interannual timescales, El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can modulate the variability of TC‐induced diapycnal diffusivity in the globe by regulating the ocean stratification rather than TC intensity, because the impacts of ENSO on TC intensity in each basin cancel out each other. As for each basin, ENSO can affect TC‐induced diapycnal diffusivity mainly by regulating the variability of TC intensity. In addition, the relationship of TC‐induced diapycnal diffusivity with dominant climate modes such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may be interactive on the interdecadal timescales, especially in the areas which are significantly influenced by PDO and NAO, such as WP, Eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic. We anticipate that these results can provide insights into the variability and physical mechanisms of TC‐induced diapycnal mixing.

Impact of Large-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions on Interannual Water Storage Changes in the Tropics and Subtropics

Satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide unique measurements of global terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes at different spatial and temporal scales. Large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions might have significant impacts on the global hydrological cycle, resulting in considerable influences on TWS changes. Quantifying the contributions of large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions to TWS changes would be beneficial to improving our understanding of water storage responses to climate variability. In the study, we investigate the impact of three major global ocean–atmosphere interactions—El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on interannual TWS changes in the tropics and subtropics, using GRACE measurements and climate indices. Based on the least square principle, these climate indices, and the corresponding Hilbert transformations along with a linear trend, annual and semi-annual terms are fitted to the TWS time series on global 1° × 1° grids. By the fitted results, we analyze the connections between interannual TWS changes and ENSO, IOD, and AMM indices, and estimate the quantitative contributions of these climate phenomena to TWS changes. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes in the tropics and subtropics are related to ENSO, IOD, and AMM climate phenomena. The contribution of each climate phenomenon to TWS changes might vary in different regions, but in most parts of the tropics and subtropics, the ENSO contribution to TWS changes is found to be more dominant than those from IOD and AMM.