Estimation of Fluctuations and Global Tele-connections in the Monsoonal Rainfall and Associated Floods for Barmer District

Abstract

Abstract: This paper is about the fluctuations and global teleconnections in the monsoonal rainfall and associated floods of Barmer district, Rajasthan, India. For investigation of precipitation and related floods, the precipitation information for period of 1901-2002 is collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for Barmer district. Inter-monsoon rainfall variability analysis, percent departure from mean, Normalized Accumulated Departure from Mean (NADM) and conditional probability technique for El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been used for the analyses of monsoonal rainfall data and its effect on floods. The outcomes demonstrate year to year varieties in the precipitation with huge takeoff from mean precipitation. It is seen that greater part of the floods are related with positive takeoff from mean precipitation. The NADM shows epochal conduct of high and low monsoon precipitation of the basin. For analysis of ENSO Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data is obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for years 1950-2019. It is observed that, during La Nina years the rainfall is higher than average annual rainfall. The analysis of ENSO reveals that the probability of the occurrence of the floods is high during cold (La Nina) events and it is very low during warm (El Nino) events. Keywords: Monsoon rainfall, Global Tele-connection, SST, ENSO effect, floods