System Performance Efficiency Research Articles

Multi-Objective Optimal Power Flow Analysis Incorporating Renewable Energy Sources and FACTS Devices Using Non-Dominated Sorting Kepler Optimization Algorithm

In the rapidly evolving landscape of electrical power systems, optimal power flow (OPF) has become a key factor for efficient energy management, especially with the expanding integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) and Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices. These elements introduce significant challenges in managing OPF in power grids. Their inherent variability and complexity demand advanced optimization methods to determine the optimal settings that maintain efficient and stable power system operation. This paper introduces a multi-objective version of the Kepler optimization algorithm (KOA) based on the non-dominated sorting (NS) principle referred to as NSKOA to deal with the optimal power flow (OPF) optimization in the IEEE 57-bus power system. The methodology incorporates RES integration alongside multiple types of FACTS devices. The model offers flexibility in determining the size and optimal location of the static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor-controlled series capacitor (TCSC), considering the associated investment costs. Further enhancements were observed when combining the integration of FACTS devices and RESs to the network, achieving a reduction of 6.49% of power production cost and 1.31% from the total cost when considering their investment cost. Moreover, there is a reduction of 9.05% in real power losses (RPLs) and 69.5% in voltage deviations (TVD), while enhancing the voltage stability index (VSI) by approximately 26.80%. In addition to network performance improvement, emissions are reduced by 22.76%. Through extensive simulations and comparative analyses, the findings illustrate that the proposed approach effectively enhances system performance across a variety of operational conditions. The results underscore the significance of employing advanced techniques in modern power systems enhance overall grid resilience and stability.

Development of a Data-driven Decision Support System for the Efficient Operation of the Research Reactor Secondary System

The High-flux Advanced Neutron Application Reactor (HANARO) is a research reactor in the Republic of Korea. The secondary cooling system of HANARO releases heat into the atmosphere via cooling towers and fans. Because a part of the system is exposed to the external atmosphere, the behavior of the secondary cooling system is coupled with atmospheric conditions. However, no procedure exists to reflect such coupling, and the cooling fans are empirically controlled by the operators. This empirical decision-making may increase the workload and reduce operational efficiency; therefore, the cooling fan operational schemes must be improved. In this study, a decision support system is developed based on two artificial intelligence (AI) models to aid operators’ decision-making in controlling the cooling fans. During model development, data augmentation was applied to alleviate data imbalances. Additionally, a graphical user interface-based decision support system prototype was developed based on the models to provide operators with more comprehensive summaries of the information related to cooling-fan operations and outputs from the AI models. The models demonstrated acceptable performance on the testing data. The prototype system was installed in the main control room of HANARO and evaluated for its usability improvements and feasibility in practical applications.

Transitive reasoning: A high-performance computing model for significant pattern discovery in cognitive IoT sensor network

Current research on the Internet of Things (IoT) has given rise to a new field of study called cognitive IoT (CIoT), which aims to incorporate cognition into the designs of IoT systems. Consequently, the CIoT inherits specific attributes and challenges from IoT. The CIoT applications generate vast, diverse, constantly changing, and time-dependent data due to the billions of devices involved. The efficient operation of these CIoT systems requires the extraction of valuable insights from vast data sources in a computationally efficient manner. Therefore, this study proposes transitive reasoning to glean significant concepts and patterns from a 21.25-year environmental dataset. To reduce the effects of missing entries, the proposed methodology includes a grouping of data using probabilistic clustering and applying total variance regularization in the alternate direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to regularize the sensory data. As a result, noisy entries will be less conspicuous. Afterward, it calculates the transitional plausibility value for each cluster using the transited value and then turns it into binary data to create concept lattices. In addition, each concept that is formed is assigned a weight, and the concept with the largest transitive strength value is chosen, followed by calculating the mean value. Therefore, this pattern is seen as significant. Experimental results on 21.25-year environmental data show an accuracy of over 99.5%, outperforming competing methods, as shown by cross-validation using multiple metrics.

Very short-term wind power forecasting considering static data: An improved transformer model

The randomness and fluctuations in wind power generation present significant challenges for grid and wind farm dispatching. Accurate very short-term wind power forecasting (WPF) is therefore essential for the efficient operation of modern power systems. Data-driven models, such as Transformers, have demonstrated their effectiveness in WPF due to their ability to efficiently capture global features in long sequences. However, limited research has examined the impact of incorporating static data into WPF, which may limit forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a Temporal Fusion Transformer forecasting model to address this challenge. This approach employs static data as the input features for the model. The model includes feature selection through a variable selection network and employs a specialized temporal fusion decoder to learn effectively from these static features. The case results show that the results of the proposed model are more accurate than the state-of-the-art methods, reducing MAPE by at least 1.32%, RMSE by 0.0091, and improving R2 by 0.035 in case studies. Additionally, the model maintains a manageable computational burden, underscoring its practical applicability.

Advancements in Network Attached Storage (NAS) for Mobile Devices: Technological Developments and Performance Assessment

Network-attached storage (NAS) technology has emerged as a vital solution in the evolving landscape of data management and storage. With the exponential growth of data and the increasing demand for efficient, scalable storage solutions, NAS systems offer a centralized, cost-effective, and flexible alternative to traditional storage methods. This paper explores the application and advantages of NAS technology in various scenarios, from home and small business environments to large enterprises. It highlights the key strengths of NAS systems in optimizing data storage, ensuring data security, and facilitating cross-device sharing. The study delves into the architectural components of NAS, including file systems, RAID configurations, and network protocols, to demonstrate how these technologies enhance storage performance and reliability. Technical details on NAS system design, such as the integration of advanced file systems and user-level networking technologies, are discussed to showcase their impact on data transfer efficiency and overall system performance. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of NAS in different environments, illustrating its ability to provide high availability, data redundancy, and low-latency data access. The findings underscore NAS technology’s potential as a versatile and scalable storage solution, with recommendations for future research focused on developing new file systems, optimizing network protocols, and exploring edge computing integrations to further enhance NAS capabilities.

Levy flight elitism-enhanced salp swarm algorithms for solving the ORPD problem

The optimal reactive power dispatch (ORPD) challenge is crucial for ensuring the efficient and reliable operation of power systems, hinging on the effective coordination of multiple devices.As a result, solving the ORPD problem involves tackling a complex nonlinear optimization challenge that demands advanced computational algorithms to determine the optimal solution. This article introduces an enhanced version of the modified algorithm, called L-E-SSA, which is inspired by the coordinated movement of a swarm led by a single member (salp swarm algorithm SSA), incorporating Levy Flight elitism, to effectively solve the ORPD problem. This study aims to reduce power losses (Ploss) and total voltage deviation (TVD) by optimizing the control variables. Numerical simulations are carried out on IEEE (30-bus) and IEEE (118-bus) power systems. To evaluate the performance and effectiveness of the modified algorithm (L-E-SSA). The results indicate that the L-E-SSA algorithm delivered strong performance and secured a competitive ranking through statistical analysis. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed method has the potential to be a highly effective solution for the ORPD problem.

A secure and efficient data aggregation scheme for cloud–edge collaborative smart meters

Smart meters are part of the Advanced Measurement Infrastructure (AMI) system in the smart grid. It facilitates data transfer between consumers and electricity suppliers (ES). However, the mass deployment of smart meters (SM) brings heavy overhead to grid operation and poses serious privacy threats. To this end, this paper proposes a secure and efficient data aggregation scheme of cloud–edge collaboration smart meters. At first, we standardize the users’ historical electricity load features and use the improved K-Means clustering algorithm to calculate the Euclidean distance between feature vectors to obtain the classification results of users’ load features. On this basis, ES generates relevant parameters to encrypt meter data and protect users’ data privacy based on classification results. The aggregator (Ag) performs the data aggregation, generates the overall signature using the Schnorr aggregation signature method, and sends it to the cloud server (CS). The ES queries the CS to obtain data and parses it to realize the customer billing service. Meanwhile, this paper executes a series of experiments, and the results show that the proposed scheme exhibits significant advantages in privacy protection and system operation efficiency.

Effective passenger flow congestion propagation model for multi-mode rail transit networks

ABSTRACT During peak passenger flow periods, congestion propagation directly affects the operational safety and efficiency of multi-mode rail transit interconnections. By analyzing the key factors affecting congestion propagation, such as the train stop schedule, and considering parameters such as the basic reproduction number and propagation threshold, this study proposes a multi-mode rail transit susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (MRT-SIRS) epidemic model to analyze passenger flow congestion propagation. Simulation experiments and sensitivity analyses using data from the multi-mode rail transit in Beijing, China, were conducted to examine the influence mechanism of key factors on congestion propagation. The degree of influence of each factor was investigated using Gray correlation analysis. Each key factor, including the propagation and recovery rates, influences congestion propagation differently. The results of this study may provide theoretical support for the efficient operation and management of multi-mode rail transit systems.

High‐Accuracy Liquid Flow Monitoring via Triboelectric Nanogenerator Combined with Bionic Design and Common‐Mode Interference Suppression

AbstractIn the development of smart cities, accurate liquid flow monitoring is essential for the efficient operation of water supply systems. Current flow sensors often face limitations in sensitivity and environmental adaptability, affecting measurement accuracy, and restricting their application in smart city infrastructure. To address these challenges, this study proposes a high‐accuracy flow monitoring method. Specifically, by combining the bionic design with advanced signal processing techniques, the sensitivity and anti‐interference ability are improved, respectively, to enhance the measurement accuracy. Based on this method, a self‐powered flow sensor (SPFS) is developed using noncontact triboelectric nanogenerators (NC‐TENGs) as the sensing unit. The SPFS achieves a sensitivity of 2.07 Hz L−1 min−1 and improves the signal‐to‐noise ratio by more than 13 times over the initial sensing signal. In addition, an intelligent system is developed to accurately measure water resources. The maximum flow rate error rate is less than 0.97% compared to commercial flow sensors. The SPFS demonstrates higher sensitivity and accuracy compared to the existing TENG flow sensors. This study addresses the limitations of existing flow sensors and pioneers a novel solution for enhanced water resource management in smart cities.

Co-pyrolysis of furniture wood with mixed plastics and waste tyres: assessment of synergistic effect on biofuel yield and product characterization under different blend ratio

Pyrolysis of waste furniture wood, mixed plastics and waste tyres was examined separately and in different combinations from the perspective of improved value products and energy production. The effect of different combinations of furniture wood, plastics and tyres on the product distribution during co-pyrolysis was analyzed. The experimental work throughout this study was performed at a temperature of 500 °C. Prior to the pyrolysis experiments, thermogravimetric analysis was done to assess the thermal degradation behavior of all selected feedstocks. During individual pyrolysis, mixed plastic wastes produced 70.6 wt% of pyrolysis liquid, which is 37.9% and 33.4% more than furniture wood and waste tyres. During co-pyrolysis, a binary blend of mixed plastics and waste tyres produced 63.3 wt% of pyrolysis liquid, which is 7.65% more than the logarithmic mean value, indicating a positive synergistic interaction on liquid production. The liquid yield of the ternary blend was observed to be as low as 54.4 wt% due to the lower volatiles present in the blend. The presence of volatiles in the feedstock is correlated with the production of liquids by individual and co-pyrolysis. For feed-flexible, more efficient, and cleaner operating systems, the increased liquid production offers crucial information. With the use of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy (GC–MS), the impact of different combinations on product characterization was investigated. The characterization study of the pyrolysis liquid obtained from mixed plastics showed the presence of different aromatic and aliphatic compounds. The findings offered viable options for efficiently utilizing waste materials, particularly plastics and tyres to improve the quality and substance of products.

A Platform of Federated Learning Management for Enhanced Mobile Collaboration

Federated learning (FL) has emerged as a crucial technology in today’s data-centric environment, enabling decentralized machine learning while safeguarding user privacy. This study introduces “Federated Learning ML Operations (FedOps) Mobile”, a novel FL framework optimized for the dynamic and heterogeneous ecosystem of mobile devices. FedOps Mobile addresses the inherent challenges of FL—such as system scalability, device heterogeneity, and operational efficiency—through advanced on-device training using TensorFlow Lite and CoreML. The framework’s innovative approach includes sophisticated client selection mechanisms that assess device readiness and capabilities, ensuring equitable and efficient participation across the network. Additionally, FedOps Mobile leverages remote device control for seamless task management and continuous learning, all without compromising the user experience. The main contribution of this study is the demonstration that federated learning across heterogeneous devices, especially those using different operating systems, can be both practical and efficient using the FedOps Mobile framework. This was validated through experiments that evaluated three key areas: operational efficiency, model personalization, and resource optimization in multi-device settings. The results showed that the proposed method excels in client selection, energy consumption, and model optimization, establishing a new benchmark for federated learning in diverse and complex environments.

Healthiness and Safety of Smart Environments through Edge Intelligence and Internet of Things Technologies

Smart environments exploit rising technologies like Internet of Things (IoT) and edge intelligence (EI) to achieve unseen effectiveness and efficiency in every tasks, including air sanitization. The latter represents a key preventative measure–made even more evident by the COVID-19 pandemic–to significantly reduce disease transmission and create healthier and safer indoor spaces, for the sake of its occupants. Therefore, in this paper, we present an IoT-based system aimed at the continuous monitoring of the air quality and, through EI techniques, at the proactively activation of ozone lamps, while ensuring safety in sanitization. Indeed, these devices ensure extreme effectiveness in killing viruses and bacteria but, due to ozone toxicity, they must be properly controlled with advanced technologies for preventing occupants from dangerous exposition as well as for ensuring system reliability, operational efficiency, and regulatory compliance.

Operational electricity cost reduction using real-time simulators

Ensuring the safe and cost-effective electricity transmission to consumers, along with the efficient and sustainable operation of power systems, has long been a primary objective for power system managers and operators. However, achieving optimal performance in a modern power system requires timely planning and operational optimal routines to be run within the realm of real-time simulation programs, and sometimes, the divergence becomes a problem with these developed routines. Despite extensive research aimed at advancing these objectives, the growing complexity of networks and their constraints has often led to the oversight of simultaneously considering both technical and economic aspects during operation. In this paper, an innovative real-time framework is introduced to reduce the operational costs of a power system swiftly. This framework addresses various nonlinear constraints, such as transmission losses, generation-consumption balance, power device limitations, and transient stability constraints, across various operational scenarios within a real-time simulator. This novel approach leverages scattered search and intentional contingencies within the network to pinpoint the optimal operating point, taking into account various network dynamics, including Automatic Voltage Regulators (AVR), governors, and tap of the transformers. The proposed method offers a fast and robust approach to identifying the most effective operating conditions for a power system. It incorporates considerations for sudden contingencies and extends capabilities through parallel simulations. It not only facilitates pre-determined preventive actions but also enables the adjustment of control parameters during post-contingency periods, such as fine-tuning of the active and reactive power generation of generators and adjusting the tap settings of transformers within power networks. Since the network simulation can be executed on distributed computers, referred to as ’Global,’ it is possible to achieve global network optimization. This approach allows for the consideration of grid networks, including renewable energy sources with models distributed through PCs. Also, it accounts for the induction motor losses within all factories involved in the global simulation. The results obtained from simulating the proposed method on a commercial real-time simulator demonstrate the superior effectiveness of the proposed framework compared to the existing methodologies, highlighting its potential to enhance the operational efficiency and economic viability of power systems.

Novel optimal high pressure determination method for CO2 air source heat pump water heater: Experimental study and methodology development

As an efficient and environment-friendly solution to replace traditional fuel-fired boiler, CO2 air source heat pump water heater (HPWH) is widely used in the commercial and residential water heating. In order to achieve the optimal performance of CO2 air source HPWH systems, the effects of electronic expansion valve (EEV) opening and inlet water flow rate on system performance are experimentally studied and the optimal matching of the two parameters are obtained in this study. Then, the relationship between the optimal high pressure and the optimal matching of EEV opening and water flow rate is discussed. Finally, a new parameter, the endpoint temperature difference (ΔTep), is defined and a novel control strategy of ΔTep = 0 is proposed to determine the optimal high pressure. The results indicate that the optimal matching of EEV opening and water flow rate corresponds to the optimal high pressure and the best COPheat of system. A smaller ΔTep corresponding to a better matching degree and a larger system COPheat. The maximum deviation between the high pressure determined by the proposed new control strategy and the optimal high pressure is less than 1.8 %, and the system COPheat under the proposed new control strategy can achieve more than 97.6 % of the maximum COPheat. Therefore, the proposed control strategy in the paper is better than that of the commonly used off-line optimal high pressure correlation and can provide guidance for the efficient operation of the CO2 air source HPWH system.

Maritime Cyber Security: Adopting a Checklist Based on IACS UR E26 Standard

The efficient operation of ship systems that control navigation, communications, sensors, and power and machinery is dependent on the increasing digitization of the maritime sector and the intense use of information and operational technologies. The goal of issuing and enforcing global regulations and standards is to lessen the impact of potential dangers that could jeopardize on-board systems, network and data integrity, and operation, functionality and safety. At this point, "Cyber Resilience of Ships" (UR E26) is recently released by the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) to address the need to improve ships' cyber resilience. This regulation will be applicable to new ships built on and after 1 July 2024. This study aims to create a check list for ship cyber security based on IACS UR E26 standard. A ship cyber security checklist was developed by first analyzing ship operational technologies, identifying potential cyber risks and vulnerabilities, and then creating a checklist in accordance with the IACS UR E26 standard to ensure cyber security on board. With a focus on clean seas and safe ships, the IACS provides technical assistance, verifies compliance, and conducts research and development to enhance maritime safety, security and regulation. This study provides practical tool to ships for ship cyber security management under the safety management system besides IACS standard benefits. Creating a checklist in accordance with the IACS UR E26 standard also allows ship owners and operators to comply with the standards and facilitate inspection processes. This reduces the effort spent to comply with international regulations. It helps to proactively manage cyber risks by providing a systematic approach to ship cyber security management.

Experimental Analysis and CFD Simulation of Photovoltaic/Thermal System with Nanofluids for Sustainable Energy Solution

The integration of photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) systems with nanofluids presents a promising avenue for enhancing sustainable energy solution. This study investigates the performance of such systems through experimental analysis and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Nanofluids, engineered colloidal suspensions of nanoparticles in base fluids, are employed to enhance heat transfer within the PV/T system. The experimental setup involves measuring electrical output, thermal efficiency, and overall system performance under varying conditions. Additionally, CFD simulations are conducted to model fluid flow and heat transfer dynamics within the PV/T collector integrated with nanofluids. The results from both experimental and simulation studies provide insights into the synergitic effects of nanofluids on enhancing energy conversion efficiency and thermal management of the PV/T system. The research contributes to the development of sustainable energy solutions by demonstrating the potential of nanofluid-enhanced PV/T systems in improving energy conversion efficiency and thermal management for various environmental conditions.

Artificial intelligence-based power market price prediction in smart renewable energy systems: Combining prophet and transformer models

With the increasing integration of smart renewable energy systems and power electronic converters, electricity market price prediction is particularly important. It is not only crucial for the interests of power suppliers and market regulators but also plays a key role in ensuring the reliable and flexible operation of the power system, particularly during extreme weather events or abnormal conditions. This study develops a hybrid time series forecasting model that combines Prophet and Transformer, which takes advantage of deep learning to provide a new solution for electricity market price forecasting. By introducing the Stacking optimization strategy, this study improves the accuracy and stability of electricity market price sequence prediction. In addition, the study tries to integrate traditional time series forecasting methods (such as the Prophet model) with deep learning models (such as the Transformer model), aiming to make full use of their respective advantages to achieve more accurate and stable predictions. Through experimental evaluation on four electricity market data sets, this study finds that the hybrid forecast model exhibits significant performance improvements in enhancing the accuracy and stability of electricity market price predictions. This method not only provides a more accurate tool for power market price prediction, but also provides solid technical support for the efficient operation and sustainable development of smart renewable energy systems. Experimental results also show that the combination of deep learning models with traditional time series methods and the introduction of Stacking strategies is crucial to improving the performance of power market price prediction, and also helps us better understand and design smart renewable energy systems, price and energy management strategies, thereby providing an effective method for achieving efficient and reliable power and energy transmission.

Optimizing COP by RSM and MATLAB model of mini refrigerator based on thermoelectric units driven by solar photovoltaic

AbstractEnergy scarcity in the world and the pollutants resulting from excessive use of conventional energy aroused the need for sustainable alternatives that are environment friendly. A multi-use thermoelectric refrigerator powered by solar energy to obtain the lowest consumption with the highest efficiency. The designed refrigerator is based on the Peltier effect using Peltier units where a temperature difference is created between the junctions by applying a voltage difference across the junction. This study investigates the performance of a refrigerator cooling system powered by a photovoltaic (PV) system. The research aims to assess the efficiency, effectiveness, and feasibility of utilizing solar energy to drive refrigeration, particularly in off-grid or environmentally conscious applications. Through a comprehensive experimental setup and data analysis, the study examines energy consumption, cooling efficiency, and overall system performance under varying conditions. The findings contribute valuable insights into the potential of PV-powered refrigerators as sustainable cooling solutions. It relies on a control unit that measures the resulting temperature to determine the appropriate connection mode to give the highest cooling efficiency. The average solar radiation when operating for 8 h, for the different seasons of the year was 149.5, 67.5, 119.3, and 118.3 w/m2 in summer, winter, spring, and fall, respectively. The average cooling energy consumption was 107.25, 137.04, 107, and 138.08 w for temperatures (20 ± 1, 15 ± 1, 20 ± 2, and 15 ± 2) °C respectively that proof solar radiation is sufficient to produce energy for the summer of cooling temperatures up to 15 °C, while in the spring and fall it is sufficient to 20 °C. The Fast not Eco mode is the least energy consuming and the fastest cooling, it can be used for rapid cooling at a short time less than an hour. The best mode in the case of continuous operation is the case of as next Eco mode cooling temperature of 20 ± 0.1 °C. The MATLAB Simulink model was developed to reduce the design cycle and facilitate the integration of solar photovoltaic with the TEC. The optimal operating point is identified through simulation and validated through experimental analysis, the optimal COP was 71.089% by Response surface methodology (RSM).

Study of ship-based carbon capture optimization considering multiple evaluation factors and main engine loads

Ship-Based Carbon Capture (SBCC) technology presents a promising approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the marine transportation. Solvent-based carbon capture has emerged as a leading technology for SBCC, primarily due to its low retrofit costs and effectiveness in treating flue gas with low carbon content. However, challenges remain in optimizing system operation efficiency under the variable conditions of ship main engine loads and in understanding the mechanisms by which process parameters influence key evaluation factors. Consequently, this study established a pilot-scale experimental platform for solvent-based SBCC and developed a carbon capture model based on it. The influence of process parameters, such as main engine exhaust flow rate and liquid/gas ratio (L/G), on the evaluation factors was thoroughly explored. With the utilization of Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis to quantify the influence of process parameters on the evaluation factors, a multi-objective optimization equation is proposed. The combination of machine learning and optimization algorithms offers an efficient approach for determining the optimal process of the SBCC system under different main engine loads. The research results show that the main engine exhaust flow rate is the most important process parameter affecting the carbon capture rate (CR), with an influence ratio as high as 64.33%. As the main engine exhaust flow rate increases, the maximum CR decreases from 97.84% to 61.13%. Although the extreme value of the regeneration energy consumption (REC) also decreases from 6.66 to 4.42 GJ/t CO2, the solvent flow rate's influence on REC is also significant, with influence ratios of 38.49% and 35.53%, respectively. A data-driven approach examined the optimal operating conditions at eight main engine loads, achieving a carbon capture rate prediction error of only 1.42% and a maximum REC error of only 0.55 GJ/t CO2. This study provides essential guidance for assessing the suitability of SBCC systems.

Aerodynamic optimization design and experimental verification of a high-load axial flow compressor

The performance and stable operating range of compressors are critical to the efficient operation of various turbomachinery systems. This paper proposes a multi-level optimization strategy combining the uni-uniform direct free deformation method, Linux partitioned CPU accelerated parallel computing technology, multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm and downhill simplex algorithm, which improves design efficiency. Numerical results show that after optimization design, the average value of peak efficiency and stall margin increases. The flow mechanism of compressor performance improvement after optimization lies in the reduction of a low-velocity separation zone in stator hub region. Moreover, the experiment study confirms the reliability and accuracy of the optimization design method and found that flow instability triggering mode, propagation characteristics of the stall cell, and surge frequency are changed after optimization design. Setting a probability distribution threshold for autocorrelation coefficient and cross-correlation coefficients can be used to predict the arrival of the surge condition.