Effect Of Volatility Research Articles

PENGARUH RETURN SAHAM, VOLUME PERDAGANGAN SAHAM, DAN VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM TERHADAP BID ASK SPREAD (Studi Empiris pada Industri Pertambangan yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2017-2021)

This study aims to determine the effect of stock returns, trading volume and stock price volatility on the bid ask spread of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2017-2021. This research is an associative type of research. The sampling technique was carried out using a purposive sampling technique. So that the sample obtained is 8 mining companies listed on the IDX in 2017 - 2021 with a total of 50 observational data for 5 years of observation. The data collection technique used is documentation. The data analysis technique used in this research is linear regression analysis of panel data using eviews. The results of the stock return research show that the results have no effect on the bid ask spread. Trading volume has an effect on the bid ask spread. The results of the research on stock price volatility show that the results have no effect on the bid ask spread. The results of the research on stock returns, trading volume and stock price volatility simultaneously show that there is an effect on the bid ask spread.

The Effect Of Profitability And Profit Volatility On Capital Structure In Cyclical And Non-Cyclical Consumer Companies Listed On The Indonesia Stock Exchange


 
 
 
 The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of profitability and earnings volatility on the capital structure of cyclical and non-cyclical consumer companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population in this study are all cyclical and non-cyclical consumer companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2016-2021. In this study, the sample selection method used purposive sampling method. The sample in this study were 125 companies where 68 consumer cyclical companies and 57 non-cyclical companies with 750 observations for each variable. The analytical method used is panel data regression analysis. This study uses the Stata program as a tool in analyzing the data. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant difference between the capital structure of cyclical and non-cyclical consumer companies, profitability has a positive and significant effect on the capital structure of cyclical and non-cyclical consumer companies, earnings volatility has a positive and significant effect on the capital structure of cyclical consumer companies. and non-cyclical.
 
 
 

Effects of volatility, fiscal policy cyclicality, and financial development on growth in South Asia

This study empirically investigates the association between macroeconomic volatility and growth in the presence of credit constraints and governmental fiscal policy stance. This study considers four South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka to examine the relationship between macroeconomic volatility and growth during the period lasting from 1980 to 2018 using the fully modified least square method. This study finds an inverse impact of volatility on growth in the presence of financial market constraints as credit market imperfections restrict companies from borrowing which eventually affect long-term investment and innovations. Also, the results suggest that fiscal policy for South Asian countries is pro-cyclical.

Volatility and dark trading: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic

We study the effect(s) of volatility on the share of trading in dark pools by exploiting the exogenous shock of the Covid-19 pandemic on financial markets and regulatory restrictions on dark trading. We find that high levels of volatility in lit exchanges is linked to an economically significant loss of market share by dark pools to lit exchanges. In line with the theory, the loss appears to be driven by informed traders’ migration from lit to dark markets during high volatility periods. The market quality implications of the trading dynamics are mixed: while it tempers liquidity decline in the lit market, it exacerbates the loss of informational efficiency.

Inventory information arrival and the crude oil futures market

AbstractThe objective of this paper is to provide a deeper insight into the impact of weekly inventory announcements and especially their associated surprises on crude oil returns and volatility during the period from 27 March 2012 to 2 October 2018. The results can be summarized as follows. First, we find that all inventory surprises exert an inverse impact on the oil price returns. Such impact appears more pronounced during the collapse and post‐collapse periods, than during the pre‐collapse period. Second, we show that the reducing volatility effects of inventory shocks that we establish for the whole period are entirely attributed to those observed in the pre‐collapse period. Third, the different effects obtained for positive and negative shocks support evidence that our split of inventory news by nature matters. Fourth, compared to macroeconomic and unconventional monetary news, the inventory statements appear as the most pertinent news during the event window. Fifth, we find evidence also that the effect of the uncertainty about economic stance, when it is significant, changes the way the oil prices and volatility react to inventory surprises, and hence weakens the effectiveness of the inventory policy. Lastly, we make an original use of the information content of the implied volatility to assess the persistence of the link between the conditional variance and the inventory news. The central finding is that the implied volatility enters with a significant effect on the conditional variance for WTI oil returns and namely with a reduced volatility persistence. Also, a significant effect from inventory surprises namely when we split the announcements into negative and positive news is detected even the implied volatility is introduced exogenously in the GARCH‐type variance specification highlighting the predominance of our main variable.

Investments in the Asian water sector: an analysis based on the DCC-GARCH model

The availability of potable water is a challenging issue for many Asian countries where economies are still expanding and the population is growing. It is not difficult to observe that water scarcity will become far worse, sooner rather than later. In this study, we investigate the relationships among water indices in five Asian markets (namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Philippines and Singapore) for the sample period 2005–2018 using the DCC-GARCH model. The empirical results confirm that volatility spillover exists among all the five water indices and there are persistent positive volatility effects. Further, we find that portfolio diversification is possible and benefits may be gained due to the contrasting correlations between pairs of these water indices. The findings of this study may be useful to academics, researchers, policymakers and major water investors worldwide in further comprehending the challenges faced by the Asian water market.

Economic, environmental, energy and exergy analysis and multi-objective optimization for efficient purification of a friendly gasoline additive by extractive distillation coupled with pervaporation

Ethyl tert-butyl ether, an environmentally friendly gasoline additive, has high industrial application value, which is very necessary to study the refined process. The development of an efficient ternary azeotropic separation and purification process promotes the establishment of an environment-friendly society. In this study, two common methods of extractive distillation and extractive pressure swing distillation and three enhanced methods of heat integration process and coupled pervaporation technology were used to efficiently separate ethyl tert-butyl ether/ethanol/water. The most effective and environmentally friendly extractants were screened by analyzing the effects of relative volatility, intermolecular interactions and biotoxicity. The multi-objective optimization method was adopted to optimize the process with the annual total cost and gas emissions as the goals and the optimal parameters and process plans for extractive distillation and extractive pressure swing distillation were obtained. Finally, five technological processes are analyzed from the aspects of economy, environment, energy and exergy. It was found that the use of pressure swing distillation would greatly increase the economic and energy loss. And compared with the conventional process, the total annual cost of the extractive distillation coupled pervaporation process was reduced by 15.12 % and the environment was reduced by 20.17%. The coupling process that is of great significance to the purification of ethyl tert-butyl ether, an environmentally friendly gasoline additive was superior to the single distillation process in terms of economy, environment and energy.

Time-Frequency Spillover Effect of Domestic and Foreign Commodity Markets on China’s Price Levels

ABSTRACT In this study, a dynamic spillover index method based on generalized variance decomposition is used to measure the volatility and return spillover effects of futures and spot markets on China’s price levels (consumer and producer price indices) at different time-frequencies. The results indicate that both domestic and foreign futures and spot markets exerted time-varying volatility and return spillover effects on China’s price levels and that major global crises aggravate the overall volatility and return spillover effect of the global futures and spot markets. In addition, the spillover effect of domestic and foreign futures and spot markets on China’s price levels is asymmetrical. The results of this study also indicate that the longer the frequency of a cycle is, the stronger the spillover effect of each market on price fluctuations is, and the weaker the return spillover effect is. Finally, the results demonstrate that China can use a combination of monetary easing and credit tightening to control inflation more effectively.

Do Stock Market Volatility and Cybercrime Affect Cryptocurrency Returns? Evidence from South African Economy

The study investigates the effects of stock market volatility and cybercrime on cryptocurrency returns in the South African economy. Daily time series data on four different types of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and BMB) were employed. The data covers the period from 1 January 2019–31 December 2021. The study employed the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC GARCH) and Bayesian liner regression model to investigate time-varying correlations among the variables. Empirical findings suggest that stock market volatility has a positive impact on the returns of BNB, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. However, it has a negative impact on Tether. Expectedly, cybercrime poses negative impacts on the returns of BNB, Bitcoin, and Ethereum but could be said to have no impact on the returns of Tether. The study concludes that ongoing efforts to reduce cybercrime activities need to be strengthened to further the use of digital currencies.

Modeling asymmetric volatility of financial assets using univariate GARCH models: An Indian perspective

In recent years, numerous models with various amounts of variance have been developed to estimate and forecast important characteristics of time series data. While there are many studies on asymmetric volatility and accuracy testing of univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models, there are no parallel studies involving multiple financial assets and different heteroscedastic models and density functions. The objective of this study is to contrast the forecasting accuracy of univariate volatility models with Normal and Student-t distributions in forecasting the volatility of stock, gold futures, crude futures, exchange rate, and bond yield over a 10-year time span from January 2010 through December 2021 in Indian market. The results of exponential, threshold and asymmetric power models show that the volatility stock (–0.12047, 0.17433, 0.74020 for Nifty, and –0.1153, 0.1676, 0.7372 for Sensex), exchange rate (–0.0567, 0.0961,0.9004), crude oil futures (-0.0411, 0.0658, 0.2130), and bond yield (–0.0193, 0.0514 and –0.0663) react asymmetrically to good and bad news. In case of gold futures, an inverse asymmetric effect (0.0537, –0.01217, –0.1898) is discovered; positive news creates higher variance in gold futures than bad news. The Exponential model captures the asymmetric volatility effect in all asset classes better than any other asymmetric models. This opens the door for many studies in Indian financial market.

POST-CONSOLIDATION MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF DEPOSIT MONEY BANKS IN NIGERIA (2006 – 2020)

This study aims to examine the effect of volatility of macroeconomic variables on the financial performance of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. Secondary annual time series data from 2006 to 2020 on variables for this study were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2021. A GARCH model analysis of annual time-series data on liquidity ratio, foreign exchange rate, interest rate, Real GDP, monetary policy rate, credit reserve ratio, inflation rate and aggregate bank profit as a measure of banks’ profitability from 2006 to 2020 was undertaken. The empirical findings showed that there exists volatility in these variables with LIQR, INTR, MPR, EXCR, and RGDP positively affecting banks’ financial performance; while INFL and CRR negatively affect banks’ profitability within the period under consideration. The study recommends that monetary policies should be introduced by Central Bank of Nigeria towards increasing MPR, RGDP and reduce CRR, INFL to stimulate the financial performance of deposit money banks and the general stability of the financial system in Nigeria

Exchange rate volatility, corruption, and economic growth

This study assesses the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth using a panel of 194 countries for the period 1995–2019. We resort to dynamic panel data models considering the exchange rate volatility estimated based on GARCH models as an explanatory variable, along with some control variables such as the level of economic openness and financial development, investment, government spending, and the expected level of education. Countries are grouped according to the level of corruption of the governments. The estimates from both Difference and System Generalized Method of Moments are obtained. The results consistently show a significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth, which diminishes as the financial system develops. An important finding is that the effect of volatility is lower in high-corruption countries, which could be because they are used to dealing with the economic instability associated with low levels of governance and incorporate it as part of their costs.

Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty

This paper investigates the observed heterogeneity in the liquidity of agricultural land markets. We adopt a real options model to determine the value of an opportunity to sell farmland and derive the optimal disinvestment triggers. A proportional hazards model is applied to estimate the duration between land sales in Germany and test the implications of the real options model. In contrast to expectations, we find an ambiguous effect of returns and price volatility on the optimal timing of land sales. There is no evidence that non-agricultural investors buy and sell land more frequently than farmers. Our results contribute to the current discussion on land market regulations, one major point of which is capping land prices. According to our results, such policies could increase the rent–price ratio and thus discourage land sales. In turn, the land supply would be reduced, causing further price pressure on farmland markets.

환경 역동성과 탐색의 거리: 한국 하이테크 전자기업 탐험과 활용

In this paper, we explored the market and environmental factors that may drive an organization’s technology search efforts through patent applications under dynamic environments. Unlike previous studies which have mainly focused on the consequences of exploration and exploitation, this study draws attention to a more contextual perspective, as the antecedents of exploration and exploitation, to explain and to elaborate on organizational adaptation – i.e. exploration and exploitation. This study empirically investigated factors affecting organizations’ strategic choices for carrying out a distant search rather than a local search or factors driving a local search rather than a distant search. We hypothesized that different market and environmental factors, such as exogenous shock, volatility, and complexity, may also induce greater organizational search distance. First, this study explored exogenous shock affecting organizational adaptation not only exogenously but also endogenously. Next, the effect of market volatility has been examined for whether it suppresses organizational change. Last, environmental complexity has been established through organizations’ surroundings and an investigation was done for suspected effects on organizational decision-making. The results of our analysis of technology search processes in the Korean high-tech electronics industry from 1994 to 2008 showed that these three environmental factors affected the search distance when they explored new technology domains, as predicted in our hypotheses. General implications on organizational search processes for researchers and practitioners are discussed.

Multiscale stochastic volatility for variance swaps with constant elasticity of variance

The variance swap is one of volatility derivatives popularly used for the risk management of financial instruments traded in volatile market. An appropriate choice of a volatility model is an important part of the risk management. One of desirable considerations should be given to the fact that the volatility varies on several characteristic time scales. Stochastic volatility models can reflect this feature by introducing multiscale volatility factors. However, pure stochastic volatility models cannot capture the whole volatility surface accurately although the model parameters have been calibrated to replicate the market implied volatility data for near at-the-money strikes. So, we choose a hybrid model of constant elasticity of variance type of local volatility and fast and slow scale stochastic volatility for evaluating the fair strikes of variance swaps. We obtain a closed-form solution formula for the approximate fair strike values of continuously sampled variance swaps and compute the solution. The theoretical formula is validated through Monte Carlo simulation. The predictability of the strike price movements is discussed in terms of the sensitive effects of the stochastic volatility and the elasticity of variance parameters for a given partial information about the underlying asset and volatility.

Do oil, gold and metallic price volatilities prove gold as a safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic? Novel evidence from COVID-19 data

The spreading COVID-19 outbreak has wreaked havoc on the world's financial system that raises an urgent need for the re-evaluation of the gold as safe haven for their money because of the unprecedented challenges faced by markets during this period. Therefore, the current study investigates whether different asset class volatility indices affect desirability of gold as a safe-haven commodity during COVID-19 pandemic. Long run and the short run relationship of gold prices with gold price volatility, oil price volatility, silver price volatility and COVID-19 (measured by the number of deaths due to COVID) has been analyzed in the current study by applying ARDL Bound testing cointegration and non linear ARDL approach on daily time series data ranging from January 2020 to Dec 2021. Findings of the study suggest that in the long run, oil price volatility and gold price volatility positively affect the gold prices, whereas the effect of silver price volatility on gold prices is negative in the long run. However in the short run, all the three indices negatively impact the gold prices. In contrast, the impact of COVID-19 is positive both in the short run and in the long run that proves the validity of gold as safe haven asset in the time of the deadly pandemic. The findings of this study have significant implications and offer investors with some indications to hedge their investments by considering the gold’s ability of safe haven during this era of pandemic.

Are Sustainability Indices Infected by the Volatility of Stock Indices? Analysis before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Considering the growing importance of sustainable investments worldwide, we explore the volatility transmission effects between the EURO STOXX Sustainability Index and the stock market indexes of its stocks. Using daily index return data, during 2000–2022, covering the COVID-19 pandemic, Multivariate Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) models are used to explore if volatility effects of the stock indices felt during the pandemic implied any evolution in the effects already felt between the volatilities existing in these stock indices and the effects of stock market indices’ volatility over the sustainability index. Results point to the great dependence that the sustainability index has on stock index movements. The volatility felt in stock indices during the pandemic period did not become decisive in reversing a previous correlation trajectory between the stock market and sustainability indexes. Provided that sustainability is not observed exclusively in financial and economic terms, but in a triple bottom line context (including the social and environmental sides), we should not verify a high influence of stock market indexes over the sustainability index, as the results point out. Policymakers and investors should be aware of the high influence and take measures to turn the sustainability index more independent.

Oil Price Volatility, Organization Capital, and Firm Performance

We examine the relationship between oil price volatility and firm performance, and the moderating role of organization capital on this relationship. Using U.S. firm-level data during the period of 1986-2017, our analysis reveals several key findings. Consistent with the real option theory, we find that oil price volatility negatively affects firm performance. However, this adverse effect of oil price volatility is reduced for firms with high levels of organization capital. Interestingly, this moderating effect of organization capital is more pronounced for firms with large cash holdings. Overall, our findings substantiate the idea that firms with high levels of organization capital can hedge oil price related volatilities effectively. Findings from several robustness tests support our key results.

Foreign earnings repatriation: the effect of exchange rate volatility and the risk of expropriation

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility and the risk of expropriation on the decision to repatriate foreign earnings.Design/methodology/approachThe current study uses secondary data for foreign subsidiaries of US multinational corporations (MNCs) in 40 countries from 2004 to 2016. We use the dynamic panel difference generalised method of moments (GMM) to estimate the dynamic earnings repatriation model.FindingsThe findings show that foreign subsidiaries of US MNCs in countries with volatile exchange rates tend to repatriate more earnings to the parent company. The findings also reveal that a greater risk of expropriation in the host country leads to the higher repatriation of foreign earnings to the parent company. The findings support the notion that MNCs use the earnings repatriation policy as a means of mitigating risks arising in the host country.Practical implicationsPractical implications for modern managers include shedding light on how financial managers can use earnings repatriation policy to mitigate exchange rate risk and the risk of expropriation in the host country. The findings also contain policy implications at the host country level that how exchange rate volatility and risk of expropriation can reduce foreign investment in the host country.Originality/valueThis study adds to the earnings repatriation literature by analysing the direct effect of exchange rate volatility on earnings repatriation decisions, as opposed to the impact of the exchange rate itself, as suggested by previous research. Hence, the findings broaden our understanding of the direct influence of exchange rate volatility on the decision to repatriate foreign earnings. The present study also examines the role of the risk of expropriation in determining earnings repatriation policy, which has received little attention in prior empirical studies.

ANALYSIS OF RISK-RETURN TRADE-OFF IN CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKETS

A rational investor does not only focus on obtaining the maximum return while making the investment decision, but also tries to calculate the risk dimension of the investment. Risk and return are in close relationship with each other in the field of finance, just as they are in daily life. In this study, risk-return analysis was made on the top five cryptocurrencies with high transaction volume; “BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, LTC” traded on crypto technology market exchanges. As it is known, digital currencies contain a lot of speculative movements. In this study, EGARCH-M model, which allows to measure the statistical connection between risk and return in the asset, which is one of the variable variance (GARCH) models, was used. Another feature of this model is that it measures whether there is an asymmetric effect in volatility. In the study, three different time periods are included: pre-pandemic period, pandemic period and the whole period.As a result of the analysis, Cardano is the only cryptoasset in which the risk-return interaction was detected. A significant risk-return trade off, which was not detected before the pandemic period, emerged for Cardano with the pandemic and continued throughout the entire period. In other analyzed cryptocurrencies; (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin), no significant relationship was found in terms of risk-return tradeoff.