Effects Of Sulfate Aerosols Research Articles

Impact of Inclusion of the Indirect Effects of Sulfate Aerosol on Radiation and Cloudiness in the INMCM Model

Impact of Inclusion of the Indirect Effects of Sulfate Aerosol on Radiation and Cloudiness in the INMCM Model

Ozone depletion in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere induced by wildfire smoke

Abstract. A record-breaking stratospheric ozone loss was observed over the Arctic and Antarctica in 2020. Strong ozone depletion occurred over Antarctica in 2021 as well. The ozone holes developed in smoke-polluted air. In this article, the impact of Siberian and Australian wildfire smoke (dominated by organic aerosol) on the extraordinarily strong ozone reduction is discussed. The study is based on aerosol lidar observations in the North Pole region (October 2019–May 2020) and over Punta Arenas in southern Chile at 53.2∘ S (January 2020–November 2021) as well as on respective NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) ozone profile observations in the Arctic (Ny-Ålesund) and Antarctica (Neumayer and South Pole stations) in 2020 and 2021. We present a conceptual approach on how the smoke may have influenced the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which are of key importance in the ozone-depleting processes. The main results are as follows: (a) the direct impact of wildfire smoke below the PSC height range (at 10–12 km) on ozone reduction seems to be similar to well-known volcanic sulfate aerosol effects. At heights of 10–12 km, smoke particle surface area (SA) concentrations of 5–7 µm2 cm−3 (Antarctica, spring 2021) and 6–10 µm2 cm−3 (Arctic, spring 2020) were correlated with an ozone reduction in terms of ozone partial pressure of 0.4–1.2 mPa (about 30 % further ozone reduction over Antarctica) and of 2–3.5 mPa (Arctic, 20 %–30 % reduction with respect to the long-term springtime mean). (b) Within the PSC height range, we found indications that smoke was able to slightly increase the PSC particle number and surface area concentration. In particular, a smoke-related additional ozone loss of 1–2 mPa (10 %–20 % contribution to the total ozone loss over Antarctica) was observed in the 14–23 km PSC height range in September–October 2020 and 2021. Smoke particle number concentrations ranged from 10 to 100 cm−3 and were about a factor of 10 (in 2020) and 5 (in 2021) above the stratospheric aerosol background level. Satellite observations indicated an additional mean column ozone loss (deviation from the long-term mean) of 26–30 Dobson units (9 %–10 %, September 2020, 2021) and 52–57 Dobson units (17 %–20 %, October 2020, 2021) in the smoke-polluted latitudinal Antarctic belt from 70–80∘ S.

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s

Atlantic hurricane activity experienced a pronounced lull during the 1970s and 1980s. The current explanation that anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing cooled the sea surface locally fails to capture the magnitude of this large decrease in activity. To explain this hurricane drought, we propose that the radiative effects of sulfate aerosols from Europe and North-America decreased precipitation in the Sahara-Sahel region, leading to an enhancement of dust regional emissions and transport over the Atlantic. This dust in turn enhanced the local decrease of sea-surface temperature and of hurricane activity. Here, we show that dust emissions from the Sahara peaked in phase with regional sulfate aerosol optical thickness and Sahel drought conditions, and that dust optical depth variations alone can explain nearly half of the sea-surface temperature depression in the 1970s and 1980s.

A Pronounced Spike in Ocean Productivity Triggered by the Chicxulub Impact

AbstractThere is increasing evidence linking the mass‐extinction event at the Cretaceous‐Paleogene boundary to an asteroid impact near Chicxulub, Mexico. Here we use model simulations to explore the combined effect of sulfate aerosols, carbon dioxide and dust from the impact on the oceans and the marine biosphere in the immediate aftermath of the impact. We find a strong temperature decrease, a brief algal bloom caused by nutrients from both the deep ocean and the projectile, and moderate surface ocean acidification. Comparing the modeled longer‐term post‐impact warming and changes in carbon isotopes with empirical evidence points to a substantial release of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere. Overall, our results shed light on the decades to centuries after the Chicxulub impact which are difficult to resolve with proxy data.

Volcanic SO<sub>2</sub> effective layer height retrieval for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using a machine-learning approach

Abstract. Information about the height and loading of sulfur dioxide (SO2) plumes from volcanic eruptions is crucial for aviation safety and for assessing the effect of sulfate aerosols on climate. While SO2 layer height has been successfully retrieved from backscattered Earthshine ultraviolet (UV) radiances measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), previously demonstrated techniques are computationally intensive and not suitable for near-real-time applications. In this study, we introduce a new OMI algorithm for fast retrievals of effective volcanic SO2 layer height. We apply the Full-Physics Inverse Learning Machine (FP_ILM) algorithm to OMI radiances in the spectral range of 310–330 nm. This approach consists of a training phase that utilizes extensive radiative transfer calculations to generate a large dataset of synthetic radiance spectra for geophysical parameters representing the OMI measurement conditions. The principal components of the spectra from this dataset in addition to a few geophysical parameters are used to train a neural network to solve the inverse problem and predict the SO2 layer height. This is followed by applying the trained inverse model to real OMI measurements to retrieve the effective SO2 plume heights. The algorithm has been tested on several major eruptions during the OMI data record. The results for the 2008 Kasatochi, 2014 Kelud, 2015 Calbuco, and 2019 Raikoke eruption cases are presented here and compared with volcanic plume heights estimated with other satellite sensors. For the most part, OMI-retrieved effective SO2 heights agree well with the lidar measurements of aerosol layer height from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) and thermal infrared retrievals of SO2 heights from the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI). The errors in OMI-retrieved SO2 heights are estimated to be 1–1.5 km for plumes with relatively large SO2 signals (>40 DU). The algorithm is very fast and retrieves plume height in less than 10 min for an entire OMI orbit.

Effects of sulfate aerosol forcing on East Asian summer monsoon for 1985–2010

AbstractWe examine the effect of anthropogenic aerosol forcing on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.1. One control and two sensitivity model experiments were conducted in order to diagnose the separate roles played by sea surface temperature (SST) variations and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes in East Asia. We find that the SST variation has been a major driver for the observed weakening of the EASM, whereas the effect of the anthropogenic aerosol forcing has been opposite and has slightly intensified the EASM over the recent decades. The reinforcement of the EASM results from radiative cooling by the sulfate aerosol forcing, which decelerates the jet stream around the jet's exit region. Subsequently, the secondary circulation induced by such a change in the jet stream leads to the increase in precipitation around 18–23°N. This result indicates that the increase in anthropogenic emissions over East Asia may play a role in compensating for the weakening of the EASM caused by the SST forcing.

Evaluation of diverse approaches for estimating sea-surface DMS concentration and air–sea exchange at global scale

Environmental context As climate models increasingly include detailed, process-based models of aerosol formation, they need to represent dimethylsulfide emissions from the ocean. Options for this include data-based climatologies and empirical or process-based models; there are diverse examples of each in the literature. This paper presents the first global-scale comparison of all available approaches and evaluation of their skill relative to observations and their possible roles in future climate models. Abstract Ocean emission and subsequent oxidation of dimethylsulfide (DMS) provides a source of sulfate in the atmosphere, potentially affecting the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface through both direct and indirect radiative effects of sulfate aerosols. DMS concentration in the ocean is quite variable with season and location, which in turn leads to high spatial and temporal variability of ocean DMS emissions. This study tested currently available climatologies and empirical and prognostic models of DMS concentration in the surface ocean against each other and against observations. This analysis mainly reveals the limitations of estimating DMS with an empirical model based on variables such as chlorophyll and mixed-layer depth. The various empirical models show very different spatial patterns, and none correlate strongly with observations. There is considerable uncertainty in the spatial and temporal distribution of DMS concentration and flux, and in the global total DMS flux. Global total air–sea flux depends primarily on global mean surface ocean DMS concentration, and the spatial distribution of DMS concentration and the magnitude of the gas exchange coefficient are of secondary importance. Global total flux estimates range from 9 to 34TgSyear–1, with a best estimate of 18–24 Tg. Both empirical and prognostic models generally underestimate the total compared with the best available data-based estimates.

Constraints on climate forcing by sulphate aerosols from seasonal changes in Earth's spin

AbstractAngular momentum exchanges between atmosphere and solid Earth are strongly modulated by variations in global atmospheric circulation. Geodetically determined length-of-day (LOD) fluctuations provide an independent resource to investigate climate changes. Here, I evaluate the effects of volcanic and anthropogenic sulphate aerosols on Earth's rotational energy variations. The period analysed, 1980–2002, shows that the strongest seasonal LOD variations are related to sulphate peak concentrations from the El-Chichón 1982, and Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson 1991 volcanic eruptions. The Earth's rotational energy budget implies that radiative forcing alone cannot produce the observed LOD anomalies. Rather, the required amount of atmospheric kinetic energy can be explained only by a strong influence of sulphate aerosols on energy partitioning into the atmosphere, for example, as sulphate aerosols affect latent heat release and transport during condensation–evaporation–freezing cycles. Overall, the effects of sulphate aerosols on Earth's spin changes are faster than those produced by greenhouse gases.

The Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 Simulations

Abstract Temporal variability within the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon (TPSM) is closely linked to both the East and South Asian summer monsoons over several time scales but has received much less attention than these other systems. In this study, extensive integrations under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical scenarios from 15 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from eight atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are used to evaluate the performance of these GCMs. Results indicate that all GCMs are able to simulate the climate mean TPSM circulation system. However, the large bias associated with precipitation intensity and patterns remains, despite the higher resolution and inclusion of the indirect effects of sulfate aerosol that have helped to improve the skill of the models to simulate the annual cycle of precipitation in both AGCMs and CGCMs. The interannual variability of the surface heat low and the Tibetan high in most of the AGCMs resembles the observation reasonably because of the prescribed forcing fields. However, only a few models were able to reproduce the observed seesaw pattern associated with the interannual variability of the TPSM and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Regarding long-term trends, most models overestimated the amplitude of the tropospheric warming and the declining trend in the surface heat low between 1979 and 2005. In addition, the observed cooling trend in the upper troposphere and the decline of the Tibetan high were not reproduced by most models. Therefore, there is still significant scope for improving GCM simulations of regional climate change, especially in regions near extensive mountain ranges.

The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change

AbstractUsing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) fully coupled chemistry‐climate (ocean/atmosphere/land/sea ice) model (CM3) with an explicit physical representation of aerosol indirect effects (cloud‐water droplet activation), we find that the dramatic emission reductions (35%–80%) in anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors projected by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 result in ~1 °C of additional warming and ~0.1 mm day−1of additional precipitation, both globally averaged, by the end of the 21st century. The impact of these reductions in aerosol emissions on simulated global mean surface temperature and precipitation becomes apparent by mid‐21st century. Furthermore, we find that the aerosol emission reductions cause precipitation to increase in East and South Asia by ~1.0 mm day−1through the second half of the 21st century. Both the temperature and the precipitation responses simulated by CM3 are significantly stronger than the responses previously simulated by our earlier climate model (CM2.1) that only considered direct radiative forcing by aerosols. We conclude that the indirect effects of sulfate aerosol greatly enhance the impacts of aerosols on surface temperature in CM3; both direct and indirect effects from sulfate aerosols dominate the strong precipitation response, possibly with a small contribution from carbonaceous aerosols. Just as we found with the previous GFDL model, CM3 produces surface warming patterns that are uncorrelated with the spatial distribution of 21st century changes in aerosol loading. However, the largest precipitation increases in CM3 are colocated with the region of greatest aerosol decrease, in and downwind of Asia.

A numerical simulation of aerosols’ direct effects on tropopause height

The direct effects of sulfate aerosol, dust aerosol, carbonaceous aerosol, and total combined aerosols on the tropopause height are simulated with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3.1 (CAM3.1). A decrease of global mean tropopause height induced by sulfate, carbonaceous aerosol, and total combined aerosols is found, and a tropopause height increase is induced by dust aerosol. Sulfate aerosol decreases the tropospheric temperature and increases the stratospheric temperature. These effects cause a decrease in the height of the tropopause. In contrast, carbonaceous and total combined aerosols increase both the tropospheric and the stratospheric temperatures, and they also cause a decrease in the height of the tropopause. The changes in the tropopause height show highly statistically significant correlations with the changes in the tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures. The changes in the tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures are related to the changes in the radiative heat rate, cloud cover, and latent heat, but none of these factors absolutely dominate the temperature change.

Sulfur cycle and sulfate radiative forcing simulated from a coupled global climate-chemistry model

Abstract. The sulfur cycle and radiative effects of sulfate aerosol on climate are studied with a Global tropospheric Climate-Chemistry Model in which chemistry, radiation and dynamics are fully coupled. Production and removal mechanisms of sulfate are analyzed for the conditions of natural and anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Results show that the 1985 anthropogenic emission tripled the global SO2 and sulfate loadings from its natural value of 0.16 and 0.10 Tg S, respectively. Under natural conditions, the fraction of sulfate produced in-cloud is 74%; whereas with anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of in-cloud sulfate production slightly increased to 76%. Lifetimes of SO2 and sulfate under polluted conditions are estimated to be 1.7 and 2.0 days, respectively. The tripling of sulfate results in a direct radiative forcing of −0.43 W m−2 (clear-sky) or −0.24 W m−2 (all-sky), and a significant first indirect forcing of −1.85 W m−2, leading to a mean global cooling of about 0.1 K. Regional forcing and responses are significantly stronger than the global values. The first indirect forcing is sensitive to the relationship between aerosol concentration and cloud droplet number concentration which requires further investigation. Two aspects of chemistry-climate interaction are addressed. Firstly, the coupling effects lead to a slight decrease of 1% in global sulfate loading for both the cases of natural and anthropogenic added sulfur emissions. Secondly, only the indirect effect of sulfate aerosols yields significantly stronger signals in changes of near surface temperature and sulfate loading than changes due to intrinsic climate variability, while other responses to the indirect effect and all responses to the direct effect are below noise level.

Global observations of aerosol impacts on precipitation occurrence in warm maritime clouds

The impact of aerosols on precipitation occurrence in warm clouds is assessed using a combination of multisensor satellite cloud and precipitation data sets and aerosol information from both satellite and a global transport model. Aerosols are found to suppress the formation of precipitation in polluted regions, evidenced by a trend toward higher liquid water path prior to the onset of light rainfall. Polluted clouds are also found to be more vertically developed than those in more pristine environments. Coupled with an apparent reduction in the size of the raindrops that subsequently form in these clouds, these findings indicate that pollution inhibits precipitation processes by redistributing water among a greater number of smaller cloud droplets. Evidence is also provided that sea‐salt aerosols have the opposite effect on precipitation development. Maritime clouds that form in regions of enhanced sea‐salt concentrations tend to precipitate more frequently, form larger raindrops, and be less vertically developed. This suggests that the nucleation of sea‐salt particles may provide a source of embryonic raindrops in maritime clouds accelerating precipitation processes and ultimately reducing cloud lifetime. The net effect of aerosols on the onset of precipitation in any given region is, therefore, defined by the relative magnitudes of the competing effects of sulfate aerosols and sea‐salt particles, the strengths of which depend strongly on both cloud liquid water path and the thermodynamic properties of the local environment.

The effects of black carbon and sulphate aerosols in China regions on East Asia monsoons

In this paper, we examine the direct effects of sulphate and black carbon (BC) aerosols in China on East Asia monsoons and its precipitation processes by using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 3.0 model. It is demonstrated that sulphate and BC aerosols in China both have the effects to weaken East Asia monsoons in both summer and winter seasons. However, they certainly differ from each other in affecting vertical structures of temperature and atmospheric circulations. Their differences are expected because of their distinct optical properties, that is, scattering versus absorbing. Even for a single type of aerosol, its effects on temperature structures and atmospheric circulations are largely season-dependent. Applications of T-test on our results indicate that forcing from BC aerosols over China is relatively weak and limited. It is also evident from our results that the effects of synthetic aerosols (sulphate and BC together) on monsoons are not simply a linear summation between these two types of aerosols. Instead, they are determined by their integrated optical properties. Synthetic aerosols to a large degree resemble effects of sulphate aerosols. This implies a likely scattering property for the integration of BC and sulphate aerosols in China.

Effects of a large asteroid impact on ultra‐violet radiation in the atmosphere

The effects of sulfate aerosols produced as a result of an asteroid impact on the ultra‐violet (UV) radiation are investigated by radiative transfer calculations. After an impact, a reduction in the solar incident radiation and ozone depletion are expected to occur, each of which, in turn, are counteract their on effects on the UV radiation. We estimate reasonable ranges for the amounts of sulfate aerosols and ozone depletion after an impact, and calculate the UV radiation at the Earth's surface, besides absorption in the stratosphere, by changing the aerosol and ozone concentrations within the ranges. The calculation results reveal that the UV‐B (0.28–0.315 μm) radiation depends on both aerosol and ozone concentrations. The reflection of UV‐B radiation by sulfate aerosols cancels out the increase in surface UV‐B radiation due to ozone depletion. This study suggests that, immediately after the Chicxulub impact event, the UV‐B radiation at the Earth's surface would not increase as compared to the pre‐impact levels, since large amount of sulfate aerosols would exist in the stratosphere. Several years after the impact, the UV‐B radiation would increase, because most of the sulfate aerosols would be removed from the atmosphere but their amount would still be enough to destroy ozone and keep it below the harmful level for terrestrial life. In case of the Chicxulub impact, an increase in the UV‐B radiation would have occurred several years after the impact and might have contributed to the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous period.

Abatement of Greenhouse Gases: Does Location Matter?

Today's climate policy is based on the assumption that the location of emissions reductions has no impact on the overall climate effect. However, this may not be the case since reductions of greenhouse gases generally will lead to changes in emissions of short-lived gases and aerosols. Abatement measures may be primarily targeted at reducing CO2, but may also simultaneously reduce emissions of NOx, CO, CH4 and SO2 and aerosols. Emissions of these species may cause significant additional radiative forcing. We have used a global 3-D chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to study the impact on climate in terms of radiative forcing for a realistic change in location of the emissions from large-scale sources. Based on an assumed 10% reduction in CO2 emissions, reductions in the emissions of other species have been estimated. Climate impact for the SRES A1B scenario is compared to two reduction cases, with the main focus on a case with emission reductions between 2010 and 2030, but also a case with sustained emission reductions. The emission reductions are applied to four different regions (Europe, China, South Asia, and South America). In terms of integrated radiative forcing (over 100 yr), the total effect (including only the direct effect of aerosols) is always smaller than for CO2 alone. Large variations between the regions are found (53–86% of the CO2 effect). Inclusion of the indirect effects of sulphate aerosols reduces the net effect of measures towards zero. The global temperature responses, calculated with a simple energy balance model, show an initial additional warming of different magnitude between the regions followed by a more uniform reduction in the warming later. A major part of the regional differences can be attributed to differences related to aerosols, while ozone and changes in methane lifetime make relatively small contributions. Emission reductions in a different sector (e.g. transportation instead of large-scale sources) might change this conclusion since the NOx to SO2 ratio in the emissions is significantly higher for transportation than for large-scale sources. The total climate effect of abatement measures thus depends on (i) which gases and aerosols are affected by the measure, (ii) the lifetime of the measure implemented, (iii) time horizon over which the effects are considered, and (iv) the chemical, physical and meteorological conditions in the region. There are important policy implications of the results. Equal effects of a measure cannot be assumed if the measure is implemented in a different region and if several gases are affected. Thus, the design of emission reduction measures should be considered thoroughly before implementation.

Health and climate policy impacts on sulfur emission control

Sulfate aerosol from burning fossil fuels not only has strong cooling effects on the Earth's climate but also imposes substantial costs on human health. To assess the impact of addressing air pollution on climate policy, we incorporate both the climate and health effects of sulfate aerosol into an integrated‐assessment model of fossil fuel emission control. Our simulations show that a policy that adjusts fossil fuel and sulfur emissions to address both warming and health simultaneously will support more stringent fossil fuel and sulfur controls. The combination of both climate and health objectives leads to an acceleration of global warming in the 21st century as a result of the short‐term climate response to the decreased cooling from the immediate removal of short‐lived sulfate aerosol. In the long term (more than 100 years), reducing sulfate aerosol emissions requires that we decrease fossil fuel combustion in general, thereby removing some of the coemitted carbon emissions and leading to a reduction in global warming.

Contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century

In this study, we examine the time evolution of the relative contribution of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases to anthropogenic climate change. We use the new IPSL‐CM4 coupled climate model for which the first indirect effect of sulfate aerosols has been calibrated using POLDER satellite data. For the recent historical period the sulfate aerosols play a key role on the temperature increase with a cooling effect of 0.5 K, to be compared to the 1.4 K warming due to greenhouse gas increase. In contrast, the projected temperature change for the 21st century is remarkably independent of the effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols for the SRES‐A2 scenario. Those results are interpreted comparing the different radiative forcings, and can be extended to other scenarios. We also highlight that the first indirect effect of aerosol strongly depends on the land surface model by changing the cloud cover.

Sulfate formation in sea‐salt aerosols: Constraints from oxygen isotopes

We use observations of the mass‐independent oxygen isotopic composition (Δ17O) of sulfate in the marine boundary layer (MBL) to quantify the sulfate source from aqueous SO2 (S(IV)) oxidation by O3 in alkaline sea‐salt aerosols. Oxidation by O3 imparts a large Δ17O signature to the resulting sulfate (8.8‰) relative to oxidation by H2O2 (0.9‰) or by OH or O2 (0‰). Ship data from two Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) cruises in the Indian Ocean indicate Δ17O values usually <1‰ in the submicron sulfate aerosol but considerable variability in the supermicron sulfate with frequent occurrences above 1‰ and up to 6.7‰. The large Δ17O values are associated with high concentrations of sea‐salt aerosols, providing evidence for the S(IV) + O3 pathway. We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS‐CHEM) to interpret quantitatively the INDOEX observations and to assess the global importance of sulfate production in sea‐salt aerosols. The model accounts for titration of sea‐salt alkalinity in the MBL by uptake of acid gases (SO2, H2SO4, and HNO3), shutting down the S(IV) + O3 pathway. We find that this titration occurs rapidly over much of the oceans except at high latitudes (strong sea‐salt emission) and is due to both the S(IV) + O3 reaction and HNO3 (g) condensation; that is, sulfate formation in sea‐salt aerosols is limited by the alkalinity flux from the ocean and by competition for this alkalinity supply from HNO3 (g). The model is consistent with the Δ17O magnitudes and patterns in the INDOEX data. Titration of alkalinity is critical for the success of the model simulation. Regeneration of sea‐salt aerosol alkalinity by OH uptake is inconsistent with the Δ17O observations in INDOEX. Model results indicate that sulfate production in sea‐salt aerosols decreases MBL SO2 concentrations and gas phase H2SO4 production rates by typically 10–30% (up to >70%) and increases MBL sulfate concentrations by typically >10% (up to 30%). Globally, this mechanism contributes 9% of atmospheric sulfate production and 1% of the sulfate burden. The impact on H2SO4 (g) formation and implications for the potential formation of new particles in the MBL warrants inclusion in models examining the radiative effects of sulfate aerosols.

Simulated distribution of vegetation types in response to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. Questions: What is the relationship between alpine vegetation patterns and climate? And how do alpine vegetation patterns respond to climate changes?Location: Tibetan Plateau, southwestern China. The total area is 2500000 km2 with an average altitude over 4000 m.Methods: The geographic distribution of vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau was simulated based on climatology using a small set of plant functional types (PFTs) embedded in the biogeochemistry‐biography model BIOME4. The paleoclimate for the early Holocene was used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns. Changes in vegetation patterns were simulated assuming continuous exponential increase in atmospheric CO concentration, based on a transient ocean‐atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects during the 21st century.Results: Forest, shrub steppe, alpine steppe and alpine meadow extended while no desert vegetation developed under the warmer and humid climate of the early Holocene. In the future climate scenario, the simulated tree line is farther north in most sectors than at present. There are also major northward shifts of alpine meadows and a reduction in shrub‐dominated montane steppe. The boundary between montane desert and alpine desert will be farther to the south than today. The area of alpine desert would decrease, that of montane desert would increase.Conclusions: The outline of changes in vegetation distribution was captured with the simulation. Increased CO2 concentration would potentially lead to big changes in alpine ecosystems.