Effects Of Simulated Changes Research Articles

Effects of simulated changes in precipitation pattern on sap flux in two tree species in subtropical region

Effects of simulated changes in precipitation pattern on sap flux in two tree species in subtropical region

Identity of biocrust species and microbial communities drive the response of soil multifunctionality to simulated global change

Increasing N inputs and changing rainfall regimes will lead to drastic changes in multiple ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling, organic matter decomposition and gas exchange in dryland ecosystems. As fundamental components of drylands, biological soil crusts (biocrusts) play important roles in the regulation of responses of multiple ecosystem functions to global environmental changes. Biocrusts are home to highly functional microbial communities; however little is known on the role of microbial communities associated with different biocrust species in regulating the response of multiple ecosystem functions to global change. Here, we conducted a microcosm experiment to evaluate the roles of biocrust-forming lichens (Diploschistes thunbergianus, Psora crystallifera and Xanthoparmelia reptans) in mediating the effects of simulated changes in rainfall frequency and nitrogen (N) addition on soil multifunctionality involving nutrient availability, greenhouse gas flux and enzyme activities. The three biocrust species supported different levels of soil bacterial diversity, and specific community composition as revealed by MiSeq sequencing. Biocrust species always promoted multiple functions related to carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling compared to bare ground, with X. reptans having the highest effect on multifunctionality. Most importantly, the relative abundance of specific microbial communities associated with different lichen species modulates the response of multifunctionality to impacts of water frequency (negative) and N addition (positive). Our results suggest that biocrust species could regulate global change impacts on soil multifunctionality in drylands, although the strength and direction vary among the biocrust species. These findings highlight the importance of preserving biocrusts as hotspots of microbial genetic resources and ecosystem functioning in drylands.

Tick-borne infectious agents in nature: Simulated effects of changes in host density on spatial-temporal prevalence of infected ticks

Ticks (Ixodidae) are important vectors of infectious agents that affect human and animal health, and the spatial-temporal dynamics of tick-host-pathogen-landscape interactions are difficult to understand based on empirical observations alone. We used a spatially explicit simulation model to examine the effects of changes in host density on the prevalence of a hypothetical transstadially transmitted infectious agent in a population of a prototypical three-host tick under ecological conditions representative of the predominantly forested areas of the south-central United States. The model was parameterized such that baseline conditions yielded a landscape-level nymphal infection prevalence (NIP) fluctuating seasonally around a threshold of 0.1 (indicative of pathogen endemicity in some disease systems) roughly paralleling seasonal fluctuations in wildlife host densities, with seasonal highs in late summer and early fall and seasonal lows in winter and spring. In simulated scenarios of both small-sized and medium-sized host reduction, the densities of both uninfected and infected off-host nymphs decreased markedly from year-to-year. The number of habitat patches in which NIP>0.1, however, increased when small-sized hosts were removed, yet decreased when medium-sized hosts were removed. Simulation of the reduction in density of large-sized hosts resulted in trends similar to those produced by reducing density of small-sized hosts, but trends were less pronounced. Under the conditions simulated, both NIP and off-host nymph densities (DON) were particularly sensitive to changes in the proportion of larvae obtaining their blood meal from medium-sized hosts. Variation in simulated NIP values can be explained by the fact that larval, nymphal, and adult tick loads were distributed differently among the different-sized hosts, each with their distinct range of movement and degree of variation in population size. Simulation results of this hypothetical case study offer insight into the complex landscape-level interactions of a prototypical 3-host tick and suggest that medium-sized hosts could play a key role in sustaining and dispersing a tick-borne infectious agent in nature.

Effects of precipitation change and neighboring plants on population dynamics of Bromus tectorum.

Shifting precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change will influence the success of invasive plant species. In the Front Range of Colorado, Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and other non-native winter annuals have invaded grassland communities and are becoming more abundant. As the global climate warms, more precipitation may fall as rain rather than snow in winter, and an increase in winter rain could benefit early-growing winter annuals, such as B. tectorum, to the detriment of native species. In this study we measured the effects of simulated changes in seasonal precipitation and presence of other plant species on population growth of B. tectorum in a grassland ecosystem near Boulder, Colorado, USA. We also performed elasticity analyses to identify life transitions that were most sensitive to precipitation differences. In both study years, population growth rates were highest for B. tectorum growing in treatments receiving supplemental winter precipitation and lowest for those receiving the summer drought treatment. Survival of seedlings to flowering and seed production contributed most to population growth in all treatments. Biomass of neighboring native plants was positively correlated with reduced population growth rates of B. tectorum. However, exotic plant biomass had no effect on population growth rates. This study demonstrates how interacting effects of climate change and presence of native plants can influence the population growth of an invasive species. Overall, our results suggest that B. tectorum will become more invasive in grasslands if the seasonality of precipitation shifts towards wetter winters and allows B. tectorum to grow when competition from native species is low.

Simulated effects of changes in direct and diffuse radiation on canopy scale isoprene emissions from vegetation following volcanic eruptions

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can alter the quality of incoming solar irradiance reaching the Earth's surface thereby influencing the interactions between vegetation and the Earth system. Isoprene (C5H8) is a biogenic volatile organic compound emitted from leaves at a rate that is strongly dependent on the received flux of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). We used a theoretical approach to investigate the potential for volcanic eruptions to change the isoprene flux from terrestrial forests using canopy-scale isoprene emission simulations that vary either the relative or absolute amount of diffuse (Idiff) and direct (Idir) PAR. According to our simulations for a northern hardwood deciduous forest, if the total amount of PAR during summer remains constant while the proportion of Idiff increases, canopy-scale isoprene emissions increase. This effect increases as leaf area index (LAI) increases. Simulating a decrease in the total amount of PAR, and a corresponding increase in Idiff fraction, as measured during the 1992 Pinatubo eruption, changes daily total canopy-scale isoprene emissions from terrestrial vegetation in summertime by +2.8% and −1.4% for LAI of 6 and 2, respectively. These effects have not previously been realized or quantified. Better capturing the effects of volcanic eruptions (and other major perturbations to the atmospheric aerosol content) on isoprene emissions from the terrestrial biosphere, and hence on the chemistry of the atmosphere, therefore may require inclusion of the effects of aerosols they produce on climate and the quality of PAR.

The Effect of the Extended Benefit Duration on the Aggregate Labor Market

I develop a matching model in which risk-averse workers face borrowing constraints and make a labor force participation decision as well as a job search decision. A sharp distinction between unemployment and out of the labor force is made: those who look for work for a certain period but find no job are classified as the unemployed and those who do not look for work are classified as those out of the labor force. In the model, the job search decision consists of two steps. First, each individual who is not working obtains information about employment opportunities. Second, each individual who decides to search has to take costly actions to find a job. Since individuals differ with respect to asset holdings, they have different reservation job-finding probabilities at which an individual is indifferent between searching and not searching. Individuals, who have large asset holdings and thereby are less likely to participate in the labor market, have high reservation job-finding probability, and they are less likely to search if they have less quality of information. In other words, if individuals with large asset holdings search for job, they must have very high quality of information and face very high actual job-finding probability. On the other hand, individuals with small asset holdings have low reservation job-finding probability and they are likely to search for less quality of information. They face very low actual job-finding probability and seem to remain unemployed for a long time. Therefore, differences in the quality of information explain heterogeneous job search decisions among individuals as well as higher job finding probability for those who reenter the labor market than for those who remain in the labor force. The effect of the extended maximum duration of unemployment insurance benefits on the aggregate labor market and the labor market flows is investigated. The benchmark benefit duration is set to three months. As maximum benefit duration is extended up to six months, the employment-population ratio decreases while the unemployment rate increases because individuals who are eligible for benefits have strong incentives to remain unemployed and decide to search even if they obtain less quality of information, which leads to low job-finding probability and then high unemployment rate. Then, the vacancy-unemployment ratio decreases and, in turn, the job-finding probability for both the unemployed and those out of the labor force decrease. Finally, the outflow from nonparticipation decreases with benefit duration because the equilibrium job-finding probability decreases. As the job-finding probability decreases, those who are out of the labor force are less likely to search for the same quality of information. I also consider the matching model with two states of employment and unemployment. Compared to the results of the two-state model, the simulated effects of changes in benefit duration on the aggregate labor market and the labor market flows are quite large and significant.

Modeling the Causes of Variation in Brain Tissue Oxygenation

Clinical markers of the adequacy of cerebral perfusion may be misleading. The effects of isolated changes in systemic blood pressure, Paco2, Pao2, and cerebral edema on cerebral blood flow and oxygenation are relatively well known, but the quantitative effects of interactions between these factors are not easily calculated. We aimed to investigate the relationship between these factors using a computational model. Using a validated, quantitative, computational model of cerebral blood flow, the simulated effects of changes in systemic blood pressure (50-180 mm Hg), Paco2 (33-55 mm Hg [4.3-7.3 kPa]), Sao2 (0.8-1.0), and cerebral edema (0%-10% increase in intercapillary distance) on middle cerebral artery flow velocity (MCAFV), brain tissue oxygenation (Pbo2), and jugular venous oxygen saturation (Sjo2) were recorded. Individual markers of adequacy of cerebral perfusion (MCAFV, Sjo2, and Pbo2 behave in accordance with clinical data with single changes in the parameters studied: the lower limit of autoregulation for MCAFV and Sjo2 lies around 60 mm Hg mean arterial blood pressure. In our model, the upper limit of autoregulation lies around 170 mm Hg, but is much less distinct for Sjo2 and Pbo2 than for MCAFV. Significant cerebral ischemia appears unlikely to occur with isolated physiological changes according to our simulation. However, the combination of hypotension, hypoxia, and edema makes ischemia much more likely in this model. Edema increases the Sjo2:Pbo2 gradient, confirming that diffusion-limited oxygen delivery may make Sjo2 values falsely reassuring. The simulated effects of pathophysiological changes on cerebral oxygenation and perfusion have been quantitatively described. Significant cerebral ischemia is predicted in the presence of two or more physiological derangements. Cerebral edema is associated with an increased gradient between Sjo2 and Pbo2.

Modelling changes in VOC emission in response to climate change in the continental United States

SummaryThe alteration of climate is driven not only by anthropogenic activities, but also by biosphere processes that change in conjunction with climate. Emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from vegetation may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate and may play an important role in climate forcing through their influence on the atmospheric oxidative balance, greenhouse gas concentration, and the formation of aerosols. Using the VEMAP vegetation database and associated vegetation responses to climate change, this study examined the independent and combined effects of simulated changes in temperature, CO2 concentration, and vegetation distribution on annual emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, and other reactive VOCs (ORVOCs) from potential vegetation of the continental United States. Temperature effects were modelled according to the direct influence of temperature on enzymatic isoprene production and the vapour pressure of monoterpenes and ORVOCs. The effect of elevated CO2 concentration was modelled according to increases in foliar biomass per unit of emitting surface area. The effects of vegetation distribution reflects simulated changes in species spatial distribution and areal coverage by 21 different vegetation classes. Simulated climate warming associated with a doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration enhanced total modelled VOC emission by 81.8% (isoprene + 82.1%, monoterpenes + 81.6%, ORVOC + 81.1%), whereas a simulated doubled CO2 alone enhanced total modelled VOC emission by only + 11.8% (isoprene + 13.7%, monoterpenes + 4.1%, ORVOC + 11.7%). A simulated redistribution of vegetation in response to altered temperatures and precipitation patterns caused total modelled VOC emission to decline by 10.4% (isoprene – 11.7%, monoterpenes – 18.6%, ORVOC 0.0%) driven by a decline in area covered by vegetation classes emitting VOCs at high rates. Thus, the positive effect of leaf‐level adjustments to elevated CO2 (i.e. increases in foliar biomass) is balanced by the negative effect of ecosystem‐level adjustments to climate (i.e. decreases in areal coverage of species emitting VOC at high rates).

Optimization of the Timing of Skeletal to Cardiac Muscle Contraction During Dynamic Cardiomyoplasty: Analysis Using a Mathematical Model

Cardiomyoplasty, or the use of skeletal muscle to assist the failing heart, has been studied for many years but has enjoyed only minimal success. It has been suggested that a delay in the start of skeletal muscle contraction relative to the QRS complex would enhance aortic flow. To study the effects of simulated changes in the relative timing of skeletal muscle contraction, heart rate and skeletal muscle contraction duration, a mathematical model was used to predict the vascular pressures and flows during cardiomyoplasty. The vascular pressures and cardiac output generated by the model for both the normal and heart failure state were similar to previously published canine data. Skeletal muscle contraction synchronous with cardiac mechanical systole (i.e., delayed approximately 50-75 ms from the QRS) was able to provide improvements in cardiac output, arterial blood pressure and aortic flow velocity up to 40% over the baseline heart failure state. A delay in the start of skeletal muscle contraction, prolonged skeletal muscle contraction duration or an increase in the heart rate from 90 to 120/min reduced this benefit. Thus, mechanical synchrony of skeletal and cardiac muscle contraction optimizes hemodynamics during cardiomyoplasty.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE OF THE WINDALIA SAND RESERVOIR OF THE BARROW ISLAND OIL FIELD

The Windalia Sand is a high porosity, low permeability oil reservoir. Currently 454 wells penetrate the unit for production or water injection operations, and are drilled on a north-south, east-west 16 ha (40 ac.) spacing. Early production performance data indicated a trend of water break-through into wells located east and west of water injection wells in an inverted nine-spot pattern. This early trend has continued and the east- west break-through has become more widespread with time. It was recognised that it could be possible to improve the performance of the waterflood if the factors causing the phenomenon were able to be identified. A detailed geological review of well data was initiated to investigate causes and possible controls of the phenomenon and to determine if oil recovery could be improved. This work was augmented by an engineering study of production data. Subsequently, a computer model was developed to investigate the simulated effects of changes to well patterns on the field's production performance.The geological review determined that the reservoir contains significant local and transitional irregularities (or inhomogeneities). The mapping of a number of reservoir parameters has shown there are genetic patterns or trends and these are postulated as being at least partial controls of preferential direction of fluid movement.Previously the reservoir had been regarded as being a more uniform "layer-cake" sand. Well completion practices and timing together with production and injection methods are thought to have accentuated the latent genetic controls. Imposed pressure parting has been postulated, on engineering premises, as a control of fluid movement. The modelling study used the notion of anisotropic permeability in attempting to history-match production performances.Because of the reservoir size and anisotropy it was impractical to model the entire field. Selected type areas within the reservoir were studied. Good history-matching of various well types (based on location within a pattern) was possible. Predictions of production performance can be made for various simulated pattern changes allowing feasibility studies to be made of possible conversion programs.East-west producing wells are being converted to injectors as they water out. This program has converted part of the reservoir to a line-drive injection configuration and improved performance in these areas is evident.

Computer simulation of the precordial QRS complex: Effects of simulated changes in ventricular wall thickness and volume

The cardiac electric field generated by depolarization of the human ventricle is simulated with a computer model which utilizes 1,500 dipoles. The configuration of the ventricles utilized in the model assumed that the cross-sectional shape of the left ventricle was circular and the right ventricular free wall was a portion of an ellipse. The torso was assumed to be homogeneous and infinite. The activation sequence was based on the measurements of Durrer. The depolarizational wave was simulated by dipole layers. The output of the model is presented as a standard multilead precordial ECG. The ECG complexes generated by the model closely resemble the precordial QRS complexes of normal man. Simulated increases in wall thickness (1 to 2.2 X control) were associated with changes in the calculated precordial QRS complexes which were characteristic of left ventricular hypertrophy. Voltage (R in V5 or V6 and S in V1) and QRS duration increased linearly as a function of calculated left ventricular mass. Increases in ventricular activation time were related nonlinearly to changes in left ventricular mass and did not occur in the absence of a simulated increase in wall thickness. The effects of simulated changes in left ventricular volume (0.6 to 3.0 X control) on the QRS complex were mainly dependent on the resultant increase in left ventricular mass. This model may be useful in simulating the precordial QRS complexes that result from isolated or combined changes in ventricular volume or wall thickness or other disorders of the heart. Furthermore, it may be useful whenever a simulation of a QRS generator is needed.