Effects Of Shocks Research Articles

Climate Change's Effect on Household Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa and Optimal Monetary Policy

The resurgence of food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa during the past decade highlights the need to comprehend the phenomenon within a framework that includes all economic agents in these times of intensification of climate change. Thus, this paper, using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, analyzes the effects of climate shocks occurring in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors on household food security in Sub-Saharan Africa, while determining optimal monetary policy responses to mitigate these adverse effects. Findings highlight that climate shocks affecting the non-agricultural sector are more detrimental to long-term household food security than those affecting the agricultural sector, particularly for urban households. To mitigate these effects, flexible policies targeting food price inflation and headline inflation seem appropriate for rural and urban households, respectively. Nevertheless, in the absence of political and social pressure, flexible headline inflation targeting is optimal for mitigating climate shocks effects on Sub-Saharan Africa's food security.

The impact of exogenous shocks on exchange rates in Vietnam

This paper investigates how exogenous shocks, including inflation, interest rates, energy prices, and crisis factors, are transmitted to the exchange rate and subsequently impact the economy. The transmission process is analyzed through the lens of the SBV's exchange rate management responses. Furthermore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the capacity of Vietnamese exchange rate system to sustain shocks. The article measures the effect of non-systematic shocks using a Dummy variable, where 0 represents normal conditions and 1 represents the time when shocks occur with the use of the monthly data from January 2009 to December 2022, compiled from data sources of the State Bank, GSO, IMF, and WB. The results show that the trend of exogenous shocks in the market over the past time is relatively favorable for exchange rate management in Vietnam, when the transmission reaction from market supply-demand shocks has a limited impact on the exchange rate and inflation. However, as the domestic economy and finance become more and more deeply integrated with the world, exogenous shocks may have a stronger impact. These findings have important policy implications for improving the SBV’s exchange rate management efficiency in relation to other variables to optimize the achieved target.

Extruded PLA-CF modeled after human DNA: Effects of thermal shock and structural design on tensile and flexural properties

This study used human DNA structure to inspire an innovative design concept. Mechanical testing assessed how design parameters and thermal shock cycles affected it. As thermal shock cycles increase, material characteristics decrease. After sixty thermal shock cycles, tensile and flexural strengths dropped 43.33% and 35.90%, respectively. DNA structures had a better strength-to-weight ratio than solids. After 60 thermal shock cycles, 2 mm ribs, straight ribs, and hexagonal honeycomb ribs had higher tensile and flexural strengths of 9.42 and 20.76 MPa, respectively.

Product Market Competition, Mergers and Acquisitions, and Covenant Redesign

Abstract Industry competition shocks are major drivers of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We document strong positive effects of competition shocks on M&A-related covenant redesign. Acquiring firms in high-competition environments are significantly more likely to undertake tender offer bond repurchases and reduce restrictions on mergers, investments, payouts, and financing, but increase change-in-control covenants. This effect is stronger for larger, more profitable firms. Moreover, announcement returns from M&A transactions of redesigning firms in more competitive settings are significantly higher, while acquisition deal premiums are lower. Our study shows the significant effect of industry competition shocks on debt recontracting in M&A. (JEL G32, G34)

Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Islamic and Conventional Bank Performance: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia

This paper aims to investigate and compare the effect of oil price shocks on the bank performance at the aggregate level as well as the level of conventional and Islamic banks. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology was adopted to analyze a panel of 10 Saudi banks, including 6 conventional and 4 Islamic banks, between 2006 Q1 and 2022 Q4. The results revealed that oil price shocks have a direct impact on banking performance. A rise (fall) in oil prices led to an increase (decrease) in bank performance through the channel of price-induced bank deposits. Additionally, oil price shocks have asymmetric effects, with positive oil shocks having a greater impact on bank performance than negative shocks. The findings highlighted that conventional banks tend to benefit more from oil price shocks, especially during oil price booms, as they experience higher positive impacts. However, during oil price busts, Islamic banks were more adversely impacted by oil shocks.

Grain-based coupled thermo-mechanical modeling for stressed heterogeneous granite under thermal shock

Microscopic damage and macroscopic mechanical properties of granite under the coupling effect of thermal load and initial stress are crucial considerations for the safe construction of underground geo-energy engineering. However, visualizing real-time micro-crack processes in rocks under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions using the current experimental techniques remains challenging. In this study, a numerical method is developed to analyze the thermally induced damage in heterogeneous granite under the coupled influence of initial stress and thermal loading. A biaxial thermo-mechanical grain-based model considering real mineral distribution is established based on digital image processing technology, the grain-based modeling method, and heat conduction theory. The microscopic parameters are calibrated and the effectiveness of the model is verified based on thermal shock and uniaxial compression experiments. The thermal destruction mechanism of granite under initial stress from a microscopic perspective was unveiled for the first time. During the thermal shock process, the stress within the rock does not remain constant at the initial stress value. Instead, it changes continuously with the progression of heat conduction. The impact of the initial stress on the thermally induced cracks is relatively minor. Cooling causes more damage to the rock than heating during thermal shock. The intragranular cracks of quartz consistently outnumber other intragranular or intergranular cracks during thermal shock. The initial stress and thermal shock damage enhance and weaken the biaxial peak strength of granite, respectively. The weakening effect of thermal shock on the peak strength becomes more pronounced at a higher initial stress. These research findings and proposed research techniques contribute to the management and optimization of underground geo-energy engineering.

How China can promote the outer circular economy under policy uncertainty

This paper utilizes the trade gravity model under the “double-cycle” pattern and selects the trade and export panel data of China in general and 31 provinces and cities located on mainland China specifically to the U.S. from 2008 to 2022 to analyze not only the reasons for the emergence of trade friction shocks between China and the U.S. but also the effects of trade friction shocks on trade between China and the U.S. and the characteristics of each market's export potential. The results of the study reveal that the volume of China's secondary industry GDP and the U.S. economic freedom index play a positive role in promoting China‒U.S. trade, while the volume of the U.S. GDP, the U.S. population, the trade distance between China and the U.S., and the number of U.S.‒China trade barrier notifications impede China‒U.S. trade. Furthermore, on the basis of the measurement of the trade potential equation, the provinces and municipalities of China's mainland are classified into the U.S. trade and export markets, and ways and means are sought to improve the potential of China's trade and exports with the U.S. Moreover, on the basis of the trade potential equation, China in general and the mainland provinces and cities specifically are divided into export markets to the U.S. to find ways to increase China's trade and export potential to the U.S. and promote China's “outward circulation” economy.

The (dis-)equalizing effects of production networks

ABSTRACT We suggest and empirically substantiate that the global production network constitutes an important variable for inflation inequality, as it modulates the impact of cost-push shocks on households. For most price shocks, the production network reduces inflation inequality, however, at the expense of lower-income households. Introducing a synthetic Consumer Price Index indicates lower-income households to be at the losing end of the overall effect of supply-side price shocks.

Determinants of labor market resilience

It is noted that the resilience of the labor market is an important category of social and economic development in conditions of perma­nent shocks and uncertainty. Global challenges, the unpredictability of cyclical fluctuations of the economy, information asymmetry of the mar­ket, the influence of behavioral factors often determine the dynamics and movement vectors of various types of markets, including the labor market, raising the question of strengthening its fundamental foundations and effective func­tioning despite numerical limitations and risks. Hence the need to study all the multifaceted factors and challenges to the functioning of the labor market and to substantiate on this basis the paradigm of resilience of the labor market in conditions of systemic uncertainty. It is substan­tiated that the determinants of the labor market resilience are cyclical and struc­tural factors that determine the ability of the labor market to avoid, withstand or recover from shock effects. Significant demographic changes in the number, gender-age composition of the population, changes in technological patterns, and introduc­tion of technological innovations, often repeated cyclical economic downturns; military and poli­tical conflicts change the sphere of employment of the population in various countries of the world and demonstrate the general internal sensitivity of the labor market to shock effects. It is emphasized that the task of the state and business is to ensure macroeconomic stability, develop human capital, social protec­tion of the population, increase the level of employment, stable and predictable economic growth, and promote the flexibility of the labor market through the development of various forms of employment, such as remote or part-time. As a result, a favorable market environ­ment will serve as an indicator of the develop­ment of innovations, the successful functioning of small and medium-sized enterprises, which will form innovative workplaces in the future and increase the resilience of the labor market as a whole

Monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil and the behavioral approach

PurposeThis study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, private and government consumption and nominal interest rates.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation from 2000Q1 to 2022Q4, capturing rational and behavioral behaviors with adjustments for Brazilian economic idiosyncrasies. Impulse response functions (IRF) assess the dynamic effects of policy shocks, providing a comparative analysis of the two frameworks.FindingsBehavioral agents show greater initial sensitivity to policy shocks, causing more pronounced fluctuations in GDP, inflation and private consumption compared to rational agents. Over time, the behavioral approach leads to a more robust recovery, while the rational approach results in a quicker return to equilibrium but less pronounced long-term recovery. The study also finds fiscal policy can partially offset the negative impacts of monetary tightening, with a more delayed effect in the behavioral model.Originality/valueThis paper provides insights into the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies under different agent expectations, emphasizing the importance of incorporating behavioral elements into macroeconomic models to better capture policy dynamics in emerging markets.

Debt erosion: Asymmetric response to demand and supply shocks

This paper explores the effect of inflation supply and demand shocks on government debt for a sample of 32 advanced economies and 24 emerging markets from 1970 to 2022. The shocks are identified using a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression model with quarterly data. Estimations of dynamic panel regressions and local projections suggest that supply shocks lead to persistent increases in government debt, while demand shocks result in long-lasting declines. Furthermore, high debt levels amplify the impacts of both supply and demand shocks by more than three times. Specifically, supply shocks contribute to an increase in debt through elevated borrowing costs and prolonged depreciation, whereas demand shocks erode debt through persistent improvements in the primary balance, driven by increased revenues.

Heat shock on bovine embryos from day 2.5–3 selects the most competent for progression to the blastocyst stage

Heat shock can impair embryo formation, while growth factors, such as colony-stimulating factor 2 (CSF2), modulate embryonic development. This study evaluated the effect of heat shock between days 2.5 and 3, as well as the impact of CSF2 at day 5 on bovine embryos cultured in a serum-free in vitro medium. The focus was on blastocyst development, the number of blastomeres, DNA fragmentation (TUNEL-positive cells), and mitochondrial activity. Heat shock reduced the proportion of cleaved embryos that developed into blastocysts (P = 0.0603). The resultant blastocysts exhibited a reduced number and proportion of TUNEL-positive cells in the trophectoderm (P = 0.0270 and P = 0.0240, respectively) and in the entire embryo (P = 0.0029 and P = 0.0031, respectively). Additionally, mitochondrial activity was lower in blastocysts derived from heat-shocked embryos (P = 0.0150) and further reduced in embryos exposed to both heat shock and CSF2 (P = 0.0415). In conclusion, the exposure of cleaved embryos to heat shock reduced their development to the blastocyst stage. However, the resulting blastocysts showed decreased DNA fragmentation and mitochondrial activity.

Effects of oil shocks on markets in G7 countries

This paper aims to assess the effects of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the G7 countries. We develop an oil sentiment indicator that measures the volatility of oil prices. We analyze oil shocks on the stock market of the G7 countries, using a structural VAR and Local Projection approach. Our results suggest that oil shocks explain 8% of the US stock market, 10% in Germany, and 7% in the UK. These results point out the possibility of using this sentiment variable for forecasting the stock market’s volatility.

Thermophysical-mechanical behaviors of hot dry granite subjected to thermal shock cycles and dynamic loadings

Exploring dynamic mechanical responses and failure behaviors of hot dry rock (HDR) is significant for geothermal exploitation and stability assessment. In this study, via the split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) system, a series of dynamic compression tests were conducted on granite treated by cyclic thermal shocks at different temperatures. We analyzed the effects of cyclic thermal shock on the thermal-related physical and dynamic mechanical behaviors of granite. Specifically, the P-wave velocity, dynamic strength, and elastic modulus of the tested granite decrease with increasing temperature and cycle number, while porosity and peak strain increase. The degradation law of dynamic mechanical properties could be described by a cubic polynomial. Cyclic thermal shock promotes shear cracks propagation, causing dynamic failure mode of granite to transition from splitting to tensile-shear composite failure, accompanied by surface spalling and debris splashing. Moreover, the thermal shock damage evolution and coupled failure mechanism of tested granite are discussed. The evolution of thermal shock damage with thermal shock cycle numbers shows an obvious S-shaped surface, featured by an exponential correlation with dynamic mechanical parameters. In addition, with increasing thermal shock temperature and cycles, granite mineral species barely change, but the length and width of thermal cracks increase significantly. The non-uniform expansion of minerals, thermal shock-induced cracking, and water-rock interaction are primary factors for deteriorating dynamic mechanical properties of granite under cyclic thermal shock.

Thermal responsive polyurethane/brominated isobutylene isoprene rubber co-continuous IPNs elastomer: From tunable shape memory behavior to high damping properties

Shape memory polymers may have the highest potential as materials for aerospace engineering because of their low density, adjustable stiffness, and controlled deformation; however, large shock effects are inevitable during the deformation process of space deployment structures. To overcome the impact of shock vibrations on such complex integrated structures, an innovative interpenetrating polymer network (IPN) preparation scheme through phase distribution adjustment is proposed. In this work, thermally responsive shape memory IPNs consisting of polycaprolactone-based polyurethane (PUPCL) and brominated isobutylene isoprene rubber (BIIR) were reported for the first time. The BIIR/PUPCL (5:5) IPNs exhibited high shape fixity and recovery rates (94.4 % and 89.6 %, respectively) and repeatable shape memory behavior. Furthermore, the IPNs presented a favorable loss factor (tan δ) of 0.60 and exhibited effective damping temperature range (tan δ > 0.3) covering 83.6 K (−43.4 °C to 40.2 °C), resulting in impressive damping properties. Finally, the working process of the hinge was simulated by constructing a layer-by-layer panel with smooth deployment 30 s after heating. In addition, a gripper-shaped module based on bending deformation was successfully fabricated, exhibiting particular energy-loss properties and acting as a shock absorber. This study provides a novel design for the preparation of multifunctional polymers with potential applications in hinges and booms for aerospace engineering and intelligent protective devices.

Are All Shocks Alike? Evidence From the Effects of Oil Shocks on Military Expenditure in Nigeria

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of oil shocks–oil price, oil demand and oil supply shocks–on military expenditure in Nigeria. Our study confirmed the presence of short-run and long-run asymmetries in all the three models used. Generally, positive oil price and demand shocks positively influence military expenditure and vice versa for negative shocks. However, a positive oil supply shock is detrimental to military expenditure.

Effects of Heat Shock in Bathhouses on Human Health

Effects of Heat Shock in Bathhouses on Human Health

前近代中国(1733-1840)省级大书院的繁荣、 困境与突破 - 以⻄方大学为参照

Since its commencement in the Tang Dynasty, Seowon of China had made popular advancement outcome in the Qing Dynasty after going though unyielding development in history of Song Dynasty, Won Dynasty and Ming Dynasty. King Sejong in the 51st year of Qing Dynasty’s Ongjeong (17 33) decreed to establish Seonghoe Seowon in each province in a way of supporting the development with financial resources. In the reigns of Geonryung (1736-1796), the Qing Dynasty established the multi-level Seowon systems officially in province, Do, Bu, Ju, Hyeon and Hyangchon as well as the clans. Among them, those provincial-level was the highest position and these Seowons was modified as the Daehakdang (grand academic facility) at the end of the Qing Dynasty as the previous universities established in modern China. As such, those provincial-level Seowon of China had conspicuous advancement from the previous modern era, but due to a number of factors, it could not advance into the modernized higher education organization. Compared to the western universities, the provincial level Seowon of the early modern China had sufficient financial and monetary funds, but did not secure sufficient and appropriate self-autonomous authorities. Because of this attribute, they could not make independent work decisions based on the objective demand for educational and academic advancement. Furthermore, the scholars invited to Seowon could not establish the academic community in administrative level, and most of them just followed the administrative measures manually devised from government authorities. As such, the government authorities at the time exercised the absolute control over the provincial-level Seowon, for example, they established the education regulations of Seowon with the past national examination system as the major point of implication, and at the same time, they involved in the evaluation programs of the applicable Seowon. Furthermore, it had the restrictions in the academic competence level for the head of Seowon. Therefore, in the event of those provincial Seowon that had secured substantial scale of funds, they continuously recruit the students to expand the scale while it continuously implemented the education on the past national examination. However, following the expansion of the recruitment scale of students, the expenses of Seowon tightened more and it caused the situation more difficult to invite scholars for even more specialized education. Therefore, regarding Seowon in the Qing Dynasty, the development concept of the measures implemented thereto promoted the dispersion of education, but at the same time, it could be deemed to interfere with the enhancement to the one-notch higher level for the education system. In between the time of Gagyeong (1796-1820) and Dogwang (1821-1850), Wanwon established Gogyeongjeongsa and Hakhaedang to develop a development model of another provincial-level Seowon. In particular, for the case of Hakhaedang, it did not have the ‘head’ but had 8 deans to take in charge of Seowon education while structured to manage the office affairs as well. Furthermore, the right to appoint the dean was not in the government authority but made through the nomination from the internal group of deans that it had the feature of academic community in its structural level. Because of this attribute, Hakhaedang could be considered to have the relative independence. The development model of Gogyeongjeongsa and Hakhaedang presented one of the directions with respect to the reform of Seowon in China at the end of the Qing Dynasty (1840-1911). However, under the influence of various shocking events inflicted from overseas, these institutions could not attain the opportunity to develop into ‘modernized’ or Chinese-style ‘university’ thereafter.

Executive compensation and worker wages during the global trade collapse: Evidence from Japanese firms

Widening income inequality is a serious social concern in many countries. We examine the causal effect of a negative demand shock on executive compensation and worker wages using a quasi-natural experiment, considering Japanese firms that experienced a sudden and substantial export decline following the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Worker wages tended to decline significantly more relative to executive compensation after the crisis in firms depending more on exports, causing a wider pay differential. We establish the robustness of our difference-in-difference results by considering selection into exporters, excluding sporadic exporters, and controlling for foreign ownership or liquidity.

Structural Effects of Economic Shocks on the Macroeconomic Economy–Electricity–Emissions Nexus in India via Long-Term Cointegration Approach

For developing nations to achieve net-zero targets, macroeconomic linkages impacting the decoupling of emissions from economic growth must account for non-linear business cycles and economic shocks. This study aims to delineate decarbonization policy pathways for the Indian electricity sector in the aftermath of COVID-19 by analysing the long-term evolution of the economy–electricity–emissions (3E) nexus during the 2008 financial crisis and during COVID-19, covering the period of 1996Q2 to 2020Q3. Upon testing multiple theoretical 3E systems, it was found that a model internalizing trade, inflation, and stochasticity was able to minimize the reproduction errors from growth to recession phases, as well as predict the rebound effect from an economic crisis. This was revealed to be due to more information within the coefficients in a trade stochastic model. Our results confirm the existence of electricity-associated emission decoupling with capital formation in the long-run, post-crisis, while economic growth and inflation increase CO2 emissions. The main finding highlights the negative feedback loop of inflation->trade->emissions, which shows that GDP and emissions are not directly causal. This long-run macroeconomic dynamic death spiral causes decoupling to be inhibited, where fossil fuel imports should not be subsidized for economic shock rebound, and the risk hedging of energy transition investments should occur in the post-COVID-19 era.