Effects Of Shocks Research Articles

Synergic effects of silica aerogel (SA) particles on tensile behavior of cryo-conditioned epoxy: The role of particle morphology and mixing sequence

Cryogenic conditions are of crucial importance for gas storage tanks to provide increased storage density, reduced pressure requirements and minimized energy losses. Incorporation of silica aerogel (SA) particles as a nanostructured material with extremely low density and exceptional thermal insulating properties into epoxy matrices has the potential to facilitate the progress of high performance nanocomposite coatings for advanced cryogenic applications. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate the impacts of particle size, particle content, milling method and mixing sequence on toughness of the cryo-conditioned epoxy coatings. SA particles of varying size (50 μm to 300 μm) were prepared using two different techniques (planetary ball milling vs. 2-blade grinding). Nanocomposite samples were prepared using two distinct mixing sequences, i.e., adding particles (in 0, 0.5, 1 and 1.5%wt.) to epoxy followed by mixing with hardener or adding particles to epoxy/hardener (with 3 or 15 min delay). The nanocomposite samples were subjected to different cryogenic conditions (single 3-h immersion in liquid nitrogen vs. three consecutive 1-h immersions). Mechanical properties of the samples were evaluated by conducting fractography, dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) and tensile tests. Large SA particles settled towards the bottom of nanocomposite and resulted in loss of mechanical properties at cryo-conditions. Mixing 1 wt% of optimized SA particles with epoxy/hardener system led to an enhanced tensile strength (26 %), stiffness (3 %) and toughness (71 %) by providing uniform cross-linking reactions and mitigating thermal shock effects at cryo-conditions. Toughening mechanisms included crack deflection, crack pinning, crack arrest and crack branching.

Macroeconomic shock effects on beef carcass premiums

Macroeconomic shock effects on beef carcass premiums

Exogenous Increases in Basic Income Provisions Increase Preventive Health-Seeking Behavior: A Quasi-Experimental Study

IntroductionUniversal Basic Income (UBI) policies have the potential to promote a wide range of public health objectives by providing those who qualify with direct cash payments. One overlooked mechanism of particular importance to health researchers is the possibility that guaranteed income might increase consultation of primary and preventive care (e.g., annual doctors’ visits; regular vaccination against infectious disease) by providing people with both the time and monetary resources to do so, thereby improving general health. MethodsThis study assesses the effects of an exogenous shock to Alaska's UBI payments to all state residents: a 2022 decision to reclassify dividend “energy relief” provisions as non-taxable (thereby increasing payments by approximately $2,000 inflation-adjusted dollars). It estimates quasi- experimental treatment effects (in 2022 vs. 2021) via mixed linear probability models that compare pre/post policy change in primary care seeking behavior in Alaska vs. the US adult population; controlling for respondent-level fixed effects and state-level random effects. Data were collected in 2021-2022, and analyzed in 2024. ResultsThe likelihood that Alaskans sought primary care post-reform (relative to beforehand) increased by 6pp, which was significantly greater than the same difference (2pp) observed across all other (non- UBI) US States (∆ = 4pp, p < 0.01). The study provides suggestive evidence that comparatively fewer Alaskans had difficulty affording primary care during this period, with less-consistent evidence of increased flu vaccine uptake. ConclusionsEnhanced UBI payments ought to be thought about as a form of health policy, as they have the potential to advance a wide range of health objectives related to preventive care.

Economic growth and regional disparities: A long-term perspective for the state of Sergipe, Brazil

This paper aims to build and evaluate long-term scenarios within the economy of the state of Sergipe so as to identify sectors with a greater capacity to leverage the state's economic growth and mitigate regional disparities. We use a dynamic and inter-regional CGE model, calibrated for the year 2015 and 41 sectors. Our simulations capture he effects of sectorial shocks in the state and explore the direct and indirect effects of such shocks throughout the economy. The main results show that sectors such as Agriculture, Transport, Financial intermediation, and Public Utility Industrial Services all have an above average impact on the state’s GDP and contribute to a reduction in regional disparities.

Understanding the information of shock effects between energy commodity prices and maritime freight rate

Research has identified volatility transmission from the oil market to the tanker freight market through external shocks. However, in the presence of intricate nonlinear structures, the academic literature often encounters difficulties in identifying cycles and their correlations across various timescales. This paper provides a multi-market analysis to comprehend the information from shock effects on different tanker routes and multi-peak fitting. Under different shock regimes, crude oil market and tanker freight rate shocks could transit bi-directly. When events occur, the crude oil market prices the expectations. However, when the actual performance of the future market differs from the traders’ predictions of the future market, a price gap exists. Generally, the trade opportunity is tough to catch up on because only partial information can be found. In this study, we investigate the volatility connection of multi-markets and shock effects to clarify previously undisclosed information using multi-peak analysis. The information gathered and double-checked by cargo markets, crude oil supply-demand balance, and tanker freight prices of various tanker types could assist us in identifying prospective trends and investment opportunities. The volatility of each market, as well as the correlation of multi-markets, gives insights to crude oil dealers, tanker market participants, and energy regulators.

Military Outlays and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Disaggregated Analysis for a Developed Economy

Abstract There is a dearth of comprehensive studies examining the compositional and asymmetric effects of defence spending on simultaneous economic growth. This study uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach to analyse how disaggregated defence spending affects economic growth in Greece in the short and long term. The results hold significant theoretical and practical policy implications. First, military spending boosts economic growth in the short term but hampers it in the long run. Second, the long-term effects of positive and negative defence spending shocks are distinct, with positive shocks more detrimental to economic growth than the benefits of negative shocks. Finally, our study reveals that personnel expenditures have the most significant and enduring effects on economic growth compared to other military spending categories. Based on these results, Greece should adopt a new defence doctrine that relies on extensive personnel reserves, prioritises state intelligence and production technology, and promotes domestic military equipment over expensive foreign options.

Financial Inclusion, Poverty Reduction, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Study Using SVAR Approach (1980-2020)

This study examines the empirical analysis of financial inclusion, poverty reduction and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using the Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (SVAR) model for analysis, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as dependent variable and Branches of Commercial Banks (CBBA), Automated Teller Machine (ATMAD), Mobile Phone-Based Transactions and Broad Money Supply (MS) as explanatory variables. The findings of the study reveal that the unit root test shows that Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Commercial Bank Branches (CBB), Money Supply (MS) and Poverty Rate (PR) are stationary at first difference. The results also reveal that in Nigeria, availability and access to money have a positive shock impact on RGDP, and CBB also has a favourable shock effect on RGDP in Nigeria. However, the PR has a negative impact on the RGDP. Therefore, the study recommends that the government should increase its efforts to promote financial inclusion and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should make commercial banks increase not only their branches but also increase the number of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs).

Identifying vulnerabilities in essential health services: Analysing the effects of system shocks on childhood vaccination delivery in Lebanon

Shocks effects are under-theorised in the growing literature on health system resilience. Existing work has focused on the effects of single shocks on discrete elements within the health system, typically at national level. Using qualitative system dynamics, we explored how effects of multiple shocks interacted across system levels and combined with existing vulnerabilities to produce effects on essential health services delivery, through the prism of a case study on childhood vaccination in Lebanon. Lebanon has experienced a series of shocks in recent years, including large-scale refugee arrivals from neighbouring Syria, the COVID-19 pandemic and a political-economic crisis. We developed a causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore the effects of each shock individually, and in combination. The CLD was developed and validated using qualitative data from interviews with 38 stakeholders working in Lebanon's vaccination delivery system, in roles ranging from national level policy to facility-level service delivery, conducted between February 2020 and January 2022.We found that each of the shocks had different effects on service demand- and supply-side dynamics. These effects cascaded from national through to local levels. Both Syrian refugee movement and the COVID-19 pandemic primarily exposed vulnerabilities in service demand, mainly through slowly emerging knock-on effects on vaccination uptake behaviour among host communities, and fear of contracting infection in crowded health facilities respectively. The economic crisis exposed wider system vulnerabilities, including demand for vaccination as household income collapsed, and supply-side effects such as reduced clinic time for vaccination, declining workforce retention, and reduced availability of viable vaccine doses, among others. Finally, important pathways of interaction between shocks were identified, particularly affecting the balance between demand for vaccination through publicly supported facilities and private clinics. Future research should incorporate dynamic approaches to identifying within-system vulnerabilities and their potential impacts under different scenarios, as a precursor to improved resilience measurement, system preparedness, and intervention targeting.

Subprime Crisis Revisited: Effect of Payment Shock on Foreclosure Rates

This study investigates how payment shock from interest rate resets affects subprime mortgage foreclosure rates. Using robust econometric techniques (OLS, 2SLS, GMM), it isolates the causal effect of payment shock while accounting for house prices and borrowers’ ability to pay. Our findings show a significant positive link (27%) between payment shock and foreclosure rates. It highlights economic stability’s importance, showing negative correlations between foreclosure rates and ability to pay, as well as foreclosure rates and house prices. Lagged foreclosure rates show a persistent effect. The GMM model provides the most reliable estimates by addressing endogeneity, heteroscedasticity, and serial correlation.

The nonlinear impacts of macroeconomic shocks on the US regional housing markets

ABSTRACT This paper examines the asymmetrical impacts of aggregate macroeconomic shocks on the US regional housing markets by estimating nonlinear Vector Autoregressive models. We show how aggregate output, monetary, inflation, and credit shocks result in heterogenous impulse responses of the housing market volatilities across growing and declining housing market regimes in nine census divisions and 19 metropolitan cities. We find that output and inflation shocks cause qualitatively asymmetrical responses across regimes in majority of regions. A positive output shock and a negative inflation shock reduce (increase) housing price uncertainties when housing markets are in a declining (booming) regime in most regions. The responses of regional housing price volatilities to monetary and credit shocks are quantitatively asymmetrical across regimes in most regions. We also find that aggregate shocks have larger contributions on changing the probabilities of regime switching when a regional housing market is initially expanding than declining. Among aggregate shocks, inflation shock has the most prominent contributions across most regions. It also presents the strongest asymmetrical effects across positive and negative shocks. Our results can help regional decision makers utilize fiscal policies, regulatory measures, and regional planning to mitigate the destabilizing effects of macroeconomic shocks on regional housing markets.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Power Storage Electronic Components Based on Fractional Weibull Process and Shock Poisson Model

For lithium-ion batteries and supercapacitors in hybrid power storage facilities, both steady degradation and random shock contribute to their failure. To this end, in this paper, we propose to introduce the degradation-threshold-shock (DTS) model for their remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Non-homogeneous compound Poisson process (NHCP) is proposed to simulate the shock effect in the DTS model. Considering the long-range dependence and heavy-tailed characteristics of the degradation process, fractional Weibull process (fWp) is employed in the diffusion term of the stochastic degradation model. Furthermore, the drift and diffusion coefficients are constantly updated to describe the environmental interference. Prior to the model training, steady degradation and shock data must be separated, based on the three-sigma principle. Degradation data for the lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and ultracapacitors are employed for model verification under different operation protocols in the power system. Recent deep learning models and stochastic process-based methods are utilized for model comparison, and the proposed model shows higher prediction accuracy.

Fertility responses to short-term economic stress: Price volatility and wealth shocks in a pre-transitional settler colony

This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.

Forecasting and unveiling the impeded factors of total export of Bangladesh using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and machine learning algorithms

Rising global oil prices are a major challenge for an emerging oil-importing nation such as Bangladesh. The majority of prior research on the economic effects of an oil price shock has concentrated on developed countries, with emerging economies receiving comparatively less attention. Bangladesh is vulnerable to price shocks due to its rising oil consumption over the past decade. This study aims to investigate how changes in oil prices would affect Bangladesh's total export earnings and to forecast the overall export volume. This study utilized a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to account for the asymmetric behavior of oil prices from 1991 to 2021. To assess the accuracy of predictions, the study employed the Prophet forecasting model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Additionally, the symmetry test revealed a nonlinear relationship between export volume and oil price but a linear relationship between inflation and export volume. According to the NARDL assessment, both positive and negative oil shocks increase export earnings over the long run. The short run summary clarifies that both positive and negative changes in oil prices exert a significant negative effect on exports. Also, Inflation influences export earnings negatively in the short run but positively over the long term. Moreover, using machine learning methods, it was found that the LSTM method outperforms the prophet model in prediction performance with a low root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.88. Also, the analysis revealed policymakers that the export sector requires diversification to reduce its exposure to oil price shocks.

Corrective maintenance minimizing expected mission losses in shock exposed multistate production-storage systems

Production-storage systems are often subject to random external shocks such as storm weather and electromagnetic interference. However, most of the existing models failed to take the shock effects into consideration. This paper extends the state of the art by modeling random shocks and optimizing their mitigating corrective maintenance policy (CMP) that defines the condition triggering repair actions to restore the production subsystem to a higher performance level. The CMP can greatly impact the amount of unsupplied product as well as the maintenance and operation costs, all contributing to the expected mission losses (EML). This paper contributes by modeling and optimizing the CMP to minimize the EML. The proposed solution encompasses a new numerical algorithm that evaluates the EML of the considered production-storage system under a given CMP and the genetic algorithm realized for solving the CMP optimization problem. The proposed model is demonstrated using a case study of a multistate power generation system subject to voltage surges due to storm weather. Based on the investigation of effects of several model parameters (shock rate, storage capacity, initial amount of product in the storage, cost of unsupplied product) on the EML and optimization solutions, useful and insightful management recommendations are provided.

A tale of two cities: spillover effects of electoral shocks in non-democratic regimes

ABSTRACT Electoral shocks have spillover effects in democracies, as they can change citizens’ political attitudes and political behaviour across national borders. Yet, electoral shocks also exist in non-democratic regimes. Do electoral shocks likewise lead to spillover within a non-democratic regime? To explore this question, I build on Lohmann’s idea of information cascade and study the spillover of the 2019 Hong Kong local election, in which the opposition won a landslide victory. Using a survey fielded in Macau during this event, I find liberalizing effects among middle-class citizens: after the electoral shock, their democratic commitment increases while their perceived electoral fairness decreases. Conversely, lower-class citizens experience backlash effects as they assess the electoral system more positively and briefly consider democracy as less important. However, these changes in political attitudes do not translate into changes in expressed vote choice and other types of political participation. Regarding the mechanism of the attitudinal change, I suggest such polarized reactions are related to the different information consumption among the two classes. I discuss how these findings contribute to the literature on non-democratic regimes, electoral shocks, and class politics.

Ischemic Heart Disease in Pregnancy: Current Understanding and Management Strategies.

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) during pregnancy poses a rare but significant risk to maternal and fetal health, with global incidence rates ranging from 0.7 to 10 cases per 100,000 pregnancies. This review synthesizes current literature on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis, management, and outcomes of IHD in pregnancy. Pregnancy-related IHD encompasses various conditions, including coronary artery disease, spontaneous coronary artery dissection, myocardial infarction with nonobstructive coronary arteries, coronary embolism, and coronary vasospasm. The pathophysiology is multifactorial, involving hemodynamic changes, hormonal influences, and increased hypercoagulability. Clinical presentation may mimic typical pregnancy symptoms, necessitating a high index of suspicion for timely diagnosis. A multidisciplinary strategy is needed for management, taking into account the hazards to the mother and fetus while also taking drug safety and procedural treatments such coronary artery bypass grafting and percutaneous coronary intervention into account. Careful observation and timely management are necessary for complications such as cardiogenic shock, arrhythmias, and thromboembolic events following myocardial infarction. With advancements in treatment techniques and early discovery, the prognosis has improved, although maternal mortality is still a worry. For the purpose of improving results and directing future research endeavors, knowledge and comprehension of IHD during pregnancy are essential.

A cumulative damage model for tubes in nuclear power plants subject to continuous degradation and multi-effect shocks under dynamic environments

Continuous degradation and shocks are two vital damage mechanisms for tubes under dynamic environments in nuclear power plants (NPPs). In this work, we presented a cumulative damage model to evaluate the reliability of tubes in NPPs, which accounts for continuous degradation and random shocks. The dynamic environments were assumed to obey a homogenous Markov process. Continuous degradation was described as a general stochastic process with independent increments. A multinomial distribution was used to depict the multiple effects of Poisson-distributed shocks on tubes. The influence of dynamic environments on the cumulative damage process of tubes was also explicitly modeled. Closed-form reliability measures were derived, such as reliability functions and mean time to failure (MTTF) of tubes. Drawing upon a case study from the existing literature, the analytical solution was validated through a comparative analysis with the outcomes of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and other methodologies referenced in the literature. As a practical engineering application, the reliability of steam generator tubes made of Alloy 690 within pressurized water reactors (PWRs), which are susceptible to primary side stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) and the effects of water hammer, was calculated. The findings indicate that the probabilities of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) as estimated by the model and those inferred from operational experience have the same order of magnitude.

How important are trend shocks? The role of the debt elasticity of interest rate

We study how financial frictions affect the importance of trend productivity shocks for macroeconomic fluctuations. Using long-run data from 17 small open economies (SOEs), we compare two variants of a workhorse SOE real business cycle model featuring a debt-elastic interest rate (DEIR), a measure of financial frictions. The first variant estimates the DEIR parameter, while the second fixes it to 0.001, effectively abstracting from financial frictions. On average, ignoring financial frictions doubles the contribution of trend shocks to output fluctuations. This suggests that a proper assessment of the quantitative effects of trend shocks requires reasonable DEIR values.

Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020

This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks—deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroeconomic conditions—measured by the unemployment gap, the output gap, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment—and the pass-through into core inflation from past headline shocks. We conclude that the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks. Macroeconomic conditions generally played a secondary role. In the United States, estimated price pressures from strong macroeconomic conditions had been greater than in other economies but have eased.

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on financial stability

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of interest rate innovations on financial stress during times of conventional and unconventional monetary policy. We employ the methodology of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011) to examine the possible asymmetries between different monetary policy stances of the Fed and the ECB. The period under examination spans from 1999 to 2023, when the two central banks were active in conducting quantitative easing (QE) operations. The evidence reveals that the effects of implementing a contractionary or an expansionary monetary policy on financial stress are sign- and size-specific.