Effects Of Shocks Research Articles

The Effects of Culture Shock on The Cultural Adaptation of Overseas Students in Thailand at King Mongkut’s University

This paper aims to examine the phenomenon of culture shock experienced by international students studying in Thailand for their master’s degree and explore their strategies for adapting to Thai culture. This research employed a semi-structured interview with eight international students at King Mongkut’s University of Technology in Bangkok, Thailand. The participants completed the open-ended questionnaires and provided responses via a Google Docs link. The writer will use Kalervo Oberg's four stages of culture shock to better understand culture shock and the adaptation process of overseas students studying in Thailand. The research illustrates the causes behind international students' desire to pursue educational institutions in Thailand and their experiences with culture shock across the four stages, along with their adaptation process. The findings suggest that overseas students suffer from culture shock in relation to their surroundings, language, cultural norms, and academic areas.

Employment shocks and demand for pain medication: Understanding the channels that drive opioid use

AbstractHigher employment ratios can affect opioid use through two main channels: by increasing physical pain from working or by reducing mental distress that may contribute to substance misuse. To separate these channels, I contrast the effect of labor demand shocks on the use of opioids with the effect on the use of over‐the‐counter painkillers—commonly used to treat pain but not mental distress. I find that during local economic expansions, opioid use declines while the demand for over‐the‐counter pain relief medication increases. Employment changes in high injury industries accentuate this pattern. One possible explanation is that, during local economic expansions, the use of pain medications to manage work injuries increases while the misuse of opioids decreases.

Exchange rate innovation, global pandemic and stock market returns: Empirical evidence from ECOWAS countries

This study used the panel VAR impulse response function model and high-frequency monthly data from 2020M1 to 2021M12 to examine the response of innovations in the exchange rate and stock market returns to the COVID-19 pandemic in Economic Communities of West African States (ECOWAS). The study found that the effect of shocks of COVID-19 today on future exchange rate innovation worsens the real conditions of exchange rate innovation in ECOWAS countries. Again, the impact of the shocks of COVID-19 today on future stock market returns encourages the real conditions of stock market returns in ECOWAS countries. It was recommended that instead of lockdown, ECOWAS governments should explore other policy options peculiar to the region in COVID-19 containment and also strive harder to deepen the stock market and encourage increased utilization of information and communication technology in stock market trading to cut costs, raise returns and connect trade with the rest of the world’s stock markets.

The impact of external shocks on volatility persistence and market efficiency of the foreign exchange rate regime: evidence from Malawi

This study examines the nexus between external shocks and micro-transmission aspects of volatility persistence and market efficiency for the Malawian Foreign exchange market. Garch-type models are employed on monthly data stretching back to June 2011 through to October 2021. Results of the study show the presence of two structural breaks for the volatility series and one structural break for the return series that fall within the rolling window for external shock associated with the Russia-Ukrainian war. The negative nature of the shock leads to a significant additive impact on volatility persistence, asymmetry, and threshold at different levels of significance in the three models of Garch, E-Garch and T-Garch respectively. Relaxing the models confirms the presence of domestic influence. However, the external influence remains significant especially for the negative shock. As such, the leverage and volatility feedback effects of external shocks are corroborated. Augmenting the approach with a FRUH analysis reveals that the foreign exchange market does not follow a random walk as it departs from the 1:1 relationship between the spot and forward rate thus being weak-form inefficient.

Asymmetric relationship between crude oil price and remittance inflows in a small island economy: Evidence from non-linear ARDL approach

Sri Lanka's economy heavily depends on remittance inflows to finance its import of essential and intermediate goods. A decline in remittances could severely limit the country's import capacity, affecting overall economic growth and development. This study investigates the impact of crude oil prices on Sri Lankan remittance inflows from 1980 to 2020, while accounting for per capita GDP, financial development, and exchange rates as additional explanatory variables. Employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the analysis reveals significant asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on remittance inflows. In the short run, positive oil price shocks lead to increased remittance inflows, whereas negative shocks reduce them. However, in the long run, both positive and negative oil price shocks have an adverse impact on remittance inflows. Furthermore, changes in per capita GDP, financial development, and exchange rates also play a crucial role in influencing remittance inflows. The findings highlight Sri Lanka's vulnerability to global oil market fluctuations and suggest policy measures to mitigate these risks. Key recommendations include diversifying labor export markets, enhancing financial infrastructure, and reducing dependence on remittance inflows to sustain import capacity and promote long-term economic resilience.

Oil price shocks and bond risk premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries

We study the effect of oil price shocks on bond risk premia. Based on Baumeister and Hamilton (2019), we identify the different sources of oil price shocks using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global market for crude oil. These structural factors are then used as unspanned factors in an affine term structure model based on the representation of Joslin et al. (2014). This is done for a total of 15 countries. Unspanned factors are responsible for most of the variability in bond risk premia for short holding periods, while spanned factors dominate the variance decomposition for longer holding periods. In both cases, global oil supply and global economic activity are clearly the most important unspanned shocks. A historical decomposition around the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis shows the clear influence of global economic activity shocks during the months of February and March 2020, increasing bond risk premia significantly.

Experimental investigation on fracture propagation in shale fractured by high-temperature carbon dioxide

The productivity of shale reservoirs was significantly enhanced by the high-temperature CO2 fracturing technique. The injection of high-temperature CO2 into the formation induced rock fracture propagation, creating advantageous pathways for fluid flow. In this research, a self-developed in situ high-temperature convective heat simulation experimental apparatus was employed to systematically conduct simulated experiments on high-temperature CO2 fractured shale under different influencing factors. The experimental results demonstrated that the permeability of CO2 increased as the injection temperature increased. The rock fracture pressure was effectively reduced by high-temperature CO2 fractured shale. Higher complexity was observed in fracture propagation, accompanied by a substantial increase in microcracks and branching fractures. The shale fracture pressure increased with increasing triaxial stress and CO2 injection rate. The confining pressure restricted the further propagation of fractures under relatively high stress conditions, thereby reducing the width and density of fractures, lowering the fracture complexity. Nevertheless, the thermal shock effect of the fluid was exacerbated as the injection rate of high-temperature CO2 increased. The initiation of microcracks was facilitated by the intensification of local thermal stress in shale, inducing multiple curved fractures and forming a more complex fracture network. Compared to horizontal bedding shale, the fracture pressure of vertical bedding shale was relatively higher during high-temperature CO2 fracturing. In addition, the geometric morphology of fracture propagation was more complex, characterized by rougher fracture surfaces, leading to a greater improvement in reservoir reconstruction volume. This research contributed to the optimization of CO2 resource utilization, provided experimental evidence for the application of high-temperature convection fracturing technology in in situ shale conversion projects.

Non-equilibrium condensation flow characteristics of wet steam considering condensation shock effect in the steam turbine

A non-equilibrium condensation flow occurs in steam turbines, accompanied by condensation shock. At present, there are limited studies on the influence of condensation shock on the flow and condensation characteristics of wet steam, and the unsteady influence of condensation shock on the flow field of wet steam always have been ignored. In this paper, the unsteady flow characteristics of condensation were presented by considering the condensation shock effect. First, the condensation flow models and corresponding source terms were programmed and loaded with UDS (user-defined scalar) and UDF (user-defined function), respectively, and the governing equations were discretized using a high-resolution calculation method. The calculated results agreed well with the reported experimental results. Based on the models, the non-equilibrium condensation flow characteristics with inlet and outlet pressures in Laval nozzle considering the condensation shock effect were analyzed. Finally, during the unsteady phase change process, the effects of back pressure and saturation of the inlet on the liquid phase parameters were examined considering the condensation shock effect in the Dykas cascade. The results show that a decrease in the back pressure and an increase in the inlet pressure improve the condensation shock intensity in Laval nozzle. With the increase of condensation shock intensity, the nucleation rate increases. Moreover, in Dykas cascade, with the increase of back pressure from 48.8 kPa to 73.2 kPa, the maximum wetness decreases from 4.8 % to 2.1 %, whereas with the increase of relative saturation from 0.58 to 0.88, the maximum wetness increases from 2.4 % to 3.6 %. The results obtained in this paper are of significance to accurately analyze the actual situation of non-equilibrium condensation flow of wet steam and to develop methods for reducing wet steam loss in turbine stage.

Effect of Transition Shock on Intention to Stay in Newly Graduated Nurses : The Mediating Effect of Positive Psychological Capital

Purpose : This study was conducted to identify the relationship between transition shock and intention to stay among newly graduated nurses and the mediating effect of positive psychological capital. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study that included a total of 155 newly graduated nurses at one hospital, recruited from June to September 2023. The data were analyzed using SPSS 27.0 and SPSS PROCESS macro model 4. Results: There were significant relationships between transition shock and intention to stay (r=-.47, <i>p</i> ＜.001), transition shock and positive psychological capital (r=-.64, <i>p</i> ＜.001), and positive psychological capital and intention to stay (r=.51, <i>p</i> ＜.001). Positive psychological capital showed a mediating effect in the relationship between transition shock and intention to stay among newly graduated nurses.Conclusion: These results indicated that transition shock directly affected newly graduated nurses’ intention to stay, indirectly affecting it through positive psychological capital. Therefore, programs and strategies to reduce transition shock and increase positive psychological capital are needed in order to improve newly graduated nurses’ intention to stay.

Using AI in the informal currency market: evidence from Cuba

ABSTRACT This article explains the various steps of a novel methodology designed to analyse the informal currency market and calculate a parallel exchange rate (ER). We utilize artificial intelligence algorithms for Natural Language Processing to extract data from social network groups and classified websites. The methodology has been implemented since 2021 amidst Cuba’s complex financial and political landscape. Given that the official exchange rate remains fixed and overvalued, the calculated ER has become vital for assessing the real-time effects of regulatory changes, economic shocks, and policies. We conduct a statistical and econometric analysis using vector autoregressive models and spillover indexes to validate the economic and financial consistency of the informal market’s time series.

Monetary shocks and house prices in Europe

PurposeThe aim of this study is to analyse the effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing price dynamics in Europe (2000–2020). We propose a pan-European comparative analysis at a city market level, contrary to the previous literature.Design/methodology/approachWe build a quarterly market dataset for 13 European cities (Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Berlin, Munich, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Madrid, Barcelona, Seville, London, Birmingham and Manchester). We proceed in two steps. First, we develop a structural VAR (vector autoregression) model. Second, we conduct a forecast error variance decomposition analysis.FindingsWe show that a contractionary policy rate has a negative influence on house prices with relevant differences. A balance sheet shock displays a heterogeneous effect on housing prices. Globally, we observe that a conventional monetary policy shock explains a larger share of total housing price variance than an unconventional monetary policy shock. Finally, our results report that conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks have a greater impact in more liberalized credit markets.Originality/valueWe develop a pan-European analysis of house prices at a market level for a sample of 13 European cities. A parsimonious structural VAR model is used to study the dynamics of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on house prices in major European markets: Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Berlin, Munich, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Madrid, Barcelona, Seville, London, Birmingham and Manchester. Our results highlighting the relative importance of conventional and unconventional monetary shocks, identify the existence of heterogeneous effects of monetary policies in European city markets.

COVID-19 Severity and Food Insecurity: Evidence from Pakistan

COVID-19 caused serious food disruptions worldwide and raised food insecurity levels. To further understand how COVID-19 impacted food insecurity, this study used nationally representative data from Pakistan to examine the effect of negative COVID-19 shock on food insecurity and its heterogeneity across different income groups. COVID-19 shock was quantified by a subjective measure based on self-reported exposure to the severity of COVID-19. We found that households struck severely by COVID-19 were about 26% more likely to report a lack of healthy food, almost 35% more likely to skip a meal, around 33% more likely to run out of food, and around 20% more likely to go without food for one whole day in comparison to the households unexposed to the severe COVID-19 shock. Furthermore, households affected by severe COVID-19 shock, especially those in the lower income quartiles, faced acute food insecurity. We constructed two additional proxies for this negative COVID-19 shock based on the objective assessment of income loss due to the lockdown measures in Pakistan to examine the robustness of the findings, and they also led to similar outcomes. Overall, the findings suggested that poorer and COVID-19-stricken households faced severer food insecurity and required urgent support.

Trying to find a balance: Energy excise duties in the context of climate targets, energy shocks, and redistributive goals

This study examines the implementation of an environmental tax reform in Italy, focusing on changes in excise duties on petrol, diesel and electricity. The reform is in line with the revised European Energy Tax Directive and aims to support European climate objectives. The main motivation of this research is to show how the additional revenues generated by the environmental reform can be used to mitigate its regressive impact on low-income households through cash transfers. The analysis uses a microsimulation model based on data from the Household Budget Survey. The environmental reform combined with the cash transfer is implemented for 2019 and 2022, this latter being a year significantly affected by the energy crisis. The results confirm the inherent regressivity of the environmental tax reform when considered in isolation, but they also reveal significant positive redistributive effects achieved by paying monetary transfers to households in the lowest three income deciles. In this case, the reform enhances redistributive outcomes that remain effective even when the structure of the transfers is modified. The paper also highlights the limited redistributive impact of the 2022 excise tax cuts on fuel, which aimed to address the regressive effects of the energy shock. Again, a targeted cash transfer would have been more effective for low-income households.

Potential Chronological Disturbance of the D’Orbigny Angrite Inferred from Discordant 26Al Ages

Angrites originate from the early-formed differentiated angrite parent body. The pristine volcanic angrite D’Orbigny is devoid of brecciation, shock effects, or any evidence of secondary processes and is thus key for studying the early stages of planetary accretion and differentiation. However, chronometers used to establish the formation chronology of angrites (including D’Orbigny) yield discordant ages, either (i) suggesting that secondary processes could have disturbed the apparent formation ages or (ii) being taken as evidence of heterogeneous distribution of 26Al in the early solar system. Yet spinel is minimally susceptible to secondary parent body processes and therefore a reliable target for establishing precise 26Al–26Mg ages. Here, we present the first in situ 26Al–26Mg analyses of spinel and plagioclase in D’Orbigny. Individual mineral assemblages provide distinct ages: olivine–spinel shows a well-defined isochron with an initial Al ratio ([26Al/27Al]i) of (5.39 ± 0.85) × 10−6, indicating formation at 2.35 +0.25−0.22 Myr after the formation of calcium–aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs), whereas plagioclase–olivine defines an isochron with [26Al/27Al]i = (7.46 ± 1.87) × 10−7, implying formation at 4.40 +0.44−0.38 Myr after CAIs, consistent with previous MC-ICP-MS studies. This temporal gap can be attributed to secondary processes such as metamorphic or impact-generated diffusion. Thus, D’Orbigny and other angrites do not represent an immaculate anchor for chronometric comparison. This complexity should be considered in future studies, especially when using D’Orbigny as an anchor to discuss the chronology of the early solar system.

Analysis of Exchange Rate Stability on the Economic Growth Process of a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa from 2000 to 2023

This study examines the impact of exchange rate stability on the economic growth of South Africa from 2000 to 2023, a period characterised by significant political and economic changes. Exchange rate stability is critical for developing countries, affecting key macroeconomic variables such as trade balances, foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation. For emerging economies like South Africa, maintaining a stable exchange rate can reduce uncertainty in international transactions, foster investor confidence, and support sustainable economic development. This research explores whether consistent exchange rate management has positively influenced South Africa’s economic trajectory, particularly by mitigating the adverse effects of global shocks and domestic volatility. Using the EasyData online database, which contains yearly time series data, the method of analysis adopted by the research is the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method. The findings show that while exchange rate stability positively impacts GDP, the influence of FDI and political risk is more substantial. These results underscore the importance of fostering a stable economic environment through sound exchange rate policies, political stability, and efforts to attract foreign investments to ensure long-term economic growth.

Outward direct investment as a shelter from external trade policy shocks: Firm‐level investigation of the US–China trade war

AbstractThis study examines the effects of external trade policy shock from the US–China trade war on firm value. Using a merged data set of Chinese‐listed companies, our empirical results reveal that Chinese firms conducting outward direct investment in the US have significantly higher stock returns around the date of the outbreak of the trade war as compared with the lower returns of exporting firms. This indicates a sheltering effect of pre‐existing outward direct investment activities. Moreover, we find that the sheltering effect is more pronounced for production‐oriented projects, high tech industries and tariff‐targeted sectors, while it is weaker for state‐owned companies.

National Forest City Policy and Urban Ecological Resilience: Evidence from 292 Cities in China

The process of sustainable urban development faces complex and severe environmental problems. Therefore, enhancing urban ecological resilience (UER) has become an urgent and critical goal. In this study, the establishment of national forest cities (NFCs) in China is regarded as an exogenous shock event, and the impact of NFCs on UER and its mechanisms are investigated based on data from 292 cities spanning 2003 to 2021 using a difference-in-difference method. It is found that NFCs can significantly enhance UER, and this conclusion holds after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis shows that NFCs can effectively strengthen environmental regulations, upgrade industrial structures, promote green innovation, and thus enhance UER. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of NFC on UER is more significant in low-carbon non-pilot cities, cities with higher levels of industrial development, and cities in central and western China. Spatial spillover analysis shows that NFCs can effectively improve the ecological resilience of neighboring cities. Therefore, NFCs should be continuously implemented and optimized to establish a long-term mechanism for urban forests to enhance ecological resilience.

Pandemic-related PTSD and associated risk factors in the general adult population in the Netherlands

Abstract Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic introduced widespread stressors and shocking events, impacting mental well-being. Understanding posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence during the pandemic is crucial, yet existing studies on this topic vary widely in methodological quality. This study aims to fill this gap using a large-scale national survey study to examine PTSD prevalence during the pandemic and compare pandemic-related and traditional shocking events. Methods This study uses data from the Dutch Public Health Monitor Adults and Elderly 2022, consisting of 365,000 Dutch adults representative for the general adult population. Pandemic-related and traditional events were assessed and anchored to a screening instrument for PTSD: the Dutch version of the PCL-5. Results Two-thirds of participants reported experiencing a shocking event during the pandemic. Exposure to pandemic-related events was reported more frequently than traditional events. Overall probable PTSD prevalence due to these events was 2.4%, evenly split between pandemic-related and traditional events. Among exposed individuals, probable PTSD prevalence was 3.7%. This was higher for traditional than for pandemic-related events. Risk factors for developing probable PTSD after exposure to an event during the pandemic were younger age, financial difficulties, loneliness, low resilience and experiencing multiple events. Discussion Exposure to shocking events during the pandemic influenced the prevalence of probable PTSD. Despite the lower relative impact of pandemic-related shocking events compared to traditional events, exposure to pandemic-related shocking events accounted for the same amount of probable PTSD cases in the Dutch general population as 5 common traditional events. This emphasizes the need to address mental health consequences of prolonged crises and the demand for healthcare, and the importance of mitigation strategies based on risk and protective factors. Key messages • Exposure to pandemic-related events accounted for approximately the same amount of probable PTSD cases as 5 frequently occurring traditional events. • Despite pandemic-related events being reported more frequently, traditional events were associated with a relatively higher prevalence of PTSD.

How Banks are Impacted by and Mediate the Economic Consequences of Natural Disasters and Climate Shocks: A Review

AbstractNatural hazard shocks (such as natural disasters, extreme weather events, and climate shocks) have significant negative consequences for real economic activity. The banking sector can mitigate (or exacerbate) some of these consequences. This paper reviews the recent empirical literature on how banks are affected by such shocks, and how banks mediate the economic consequences to households and the real economy. After conceptualizing the theoretical transmission channels between the real economy and the banking sector, the review proceeds in two steps. First, it synthesises the existing literature on the direct effects of natural hazard shocks on bank stability, bank profitability, and credit supply. Then, the critical role of banking in economic recovery is analysed, including research on spillovers into unaffected regions through the banking system. Negative direct effects of natural hazard shocks on banks can be significant but are often transitory. Banking systems in less developed countries appear more vulnerable and are less able to maintain credit supply under adverse conditions. Banks that are better capitalised and that have incentives to support affected economies contribute to economic resilience. The review identifies several avenues for future research and highlights specific features and trade-offs relevant to policymakers interested in enabling the banking system to contribute to sustained economic development in the face of worsening physical climate risks.

Defibrillator shocks and their effect on objective asian patient outcomes: results of the painfree SST clinical trial

Abstract Background The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) reduces mortality in patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. However, the effect of ICD shock on device-measured activity is unknown. The aim of this analysis was to analyze the acute and long-term effects of ICD shock on objective behavioral data. Methods The PainFree SST study was a prospective, multicenter, global study that enrolled 2770 patients including 225 from from Asia (181 from Japan, 25 from India, and 19 from Malaysia). Patient physical activity was determined from the device built-in accelerometer. The device translates the accelerometer output into a count of active minutes, which is stored as a daily total value in device memory for a rolling window of 425 days. Obviously, activity is measured only after device implantation. Early after implant, activity is reduced due to the procedure and thus not representative. Therefore, no baseline can be reported for activity. The follow-up activity data was analyzed with a linear mixed model, with a random effect for patient and an auto-regressive correlation matrix for subsequent measurements of individual patients. Results Figure 1 shows average daily activity between 90 days before and 90 days after a shock. The dashed vertical line indicates the day of shock. Both patients from Asia and from other countries show a drop in activity after a shock with recovery in the subsequent 30-60 days. The curve for Asian patients is more variable than the curve for other countries due to the lower number of patients (there were 33 Asian patients with shocks contributing data). Figure 2 shows average daily activity before and after ATP therapy. Any post shock measurement is excluded. Contrary to the temporary reduction in activity around a shock (Figure 1), ATP therapies do not seem to have an impact on activity. In patients from the other countries, activity is significantly reduced when patients are hospitalized (-66.3 minutes/day, p<0.0001), but not in Asian patients (-5.1 minutes/day, p=0.71). Both in Asian and other countries, activity is significantly reduced after an ICD shock (Asian: -47.5 minutes/day, p=0.0002; Other countries: -21.5 minutes/day, p<0.0001). The effect of shock for Asian is greater than the other countries (p=0.054). In the month after the shock there is a significant recovery, +34.8 minutes/day in Asian patients (p=0.0077) and +7.7 minutes/day in patients from other countries (p=0.031). The recovery is trended to be bigger in Asian patients (p=0.058). Conclusions ICD shocks have a lasting adverse impact on objective, device-measured physical activity, particularly among Asian individuals. Successful management of patients with an ICD necessitates specific attention to clinically relevant behavioral outcomes, aiming to expedite recovery and facilitate a return to activities of daily living, with a particular focus on the Asian population.