Effects Of Russia Research Articles

A Multiperiod, Multicommodity, Capacitated International Agricultural Trade Network Equilibrium Model with Applications to Ukraine in Wartime

The world is facing immense challenges because of increasing strife and the impacts of climate change with accompanying disasters, both sudden-onset as well as slow-onset ones, which have affected the trade of agricultural commodities needed for food security. In this paper, a multiperiod, multicommodity, international, agricultural trade network equilibrium model is constructed with capacity constraints on the production, transportation, and storage of agricultural commodities. The model allows for multiple routes between supply and demand country markets, different modes of transport, and storage in the producing and consuming countries as well as in the intermediate countries. The generality of the underlying functions, coupled with the capacity constraints, allow for the modeling of competition among agricultural commodities for production, transportation, and storage. The capacity constraints also enable the quantification of various disaster-related disruptions to production, transportation, and storage on the volumes of commodity flows as well as on the prices. A series of numerical examples inspired by the effects of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on agricultural trade is presented, and the results are analyzed to provide insights into food insecurity issues caused by the war.

The Effect of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on Non-Human Animals: International Humanitarian Law Perspectives

AbstractSince Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine, there have been thousands of instances of civilian casualties, damage to the natural environment and cultural property, destruction of buildings and infrastructure, blockading of ports, siege, capturing installations containing dangerous forces, and other consequences that accompany hostilities. In addition to the fatalities related to humans (civilians and combatants alike) and their property or environment, the war in Ukraine has also accounted for non-human tolls – namely, the destruction of animals or damage to their habitats.The primary objective of this article is to study three patterns of animal suffering documented during Russia's invasion of Ukraine: (i) targeting zoos and killing zoo animals; (ii) extermination of the Black Sea dolphin population; and (iii) eating pigeons or other pets in besieged localities, and to analyse these patterns in the light of applicable rules of international humanitarian law (IHL).The idea of this research is to underline that war can have a significant effect on various categories of animals, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is just another example of this. The article also discusses how, and the extent to which international law can provide protection for animals in armed conflict, and whether there are any gaps in the applicable IHL rules related to the protection of animals.

Global source apportionment of aerosols into major emission regions and sectors over 1850–2017

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor gases have changed significantly in the past few decades around the world. In this study, the Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (EAST) system is merged into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) to quantify the variations in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations, source contributions, and their subsequent radiative impact in four major emission regions across the globe during 1850–1980, 1980–2010, and 2010–2017. In North America and Europe, changes in anthropogenic PM2.5 were mainly caused by changes in emissions from local energy and industrial sectors. The local industrial sector caused the largest increase in PM2.5 in East Asia during 1980–2010 and decrease during 2010–2017. In South Asia, the increase in energy-related emissions dominated the rise in PM2.5 levels during 1980–2017. During 1850–1980, the increases in emissions from North America contributed to the increase in the European PM2.5 burden by 1.7 mg m−2 and the sources from the Europe were also responsible for the PM2.5 burden increase in East Asia and South Asia by about 1.0 mg m−2. During 1980–2010, East Asia contributed to an increase of 0.4–0.6 mg m−2 in the PM2.5 burden in North America and Europe, while South Asia contributed about 0.3 mg m−2. During 2010–2017, the contributions from East Asia to the PM2.5 burdens in the North America, Europe, and South Asia declined by 0.3–0.6 mg m−2 due to the clean air actions in China, while the contributions from South Asia still increased due to the continuous increase in emissions in South Asia. The historical changes in aerosols had an impact on effective radiative forcing through aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari). During 1980–2010, a decline in North American aerosols resulted in a positive ERFari change (warming effect) in Europe and a decline in aerosols in Europe caused a warming effect in Russia and northern China. The changes in ERFari from the increase and decrease in aerosols in China during 1980–2010 and 2010–2017, respectively, are comparable in magnitude. The continuous aerosol increases in South Asia from 1980 to 2017 resulted in negative ERFari (cooling) changes in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and southern China.

ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SUPPORT FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED BUSINESSES

The article assesses the effectiveness of state support policies for small businesses in conditions of federal budget deficit in the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is a methodology to assess the effectiveness of supporting small and medium-sized businesses. The purpose of the study is to develop a system to evaluate the effectiveness of state support for SMEs. The objectives of the study: to analyze the approaches to assess the effectiveness in Russia at large and abroad, to assess the effectiveness of state support measures for SMEs in Russia and abroad, to propose their own options for assessing the effectiveness of support measures, to present the practical application of the proposed methods. Research methodology: methods of system analysis, generalization, systematization, methods of statistical, dynamic, structural and comparative analysis. Research results: the article develops a system to evaluate the effectiveness of state support for small businesses, which includes several main indicators for evaluating the effectiveness (survival rate of recipients of state support by year; dynamics of average income; dynamics of the average number of employed; dynamics of the average amount of taxes paid by SMEs), as well as an algorithm to conduct an assessment based on a comparison of selected indicators for a group of SMEs that received support with indicators of small and medium-sized enterprises that were not participants in the relevant government programs. Using the proposed assessment system based on the statistical data of the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation, an analysis of the effectiveness of state support measures for SMEs in general and in the context of individual forms of support in the period 2019- 2022 was carried out. Based on the significant deviation of the selected indicators of SME recipients of support from the average values in the whole SME sector (and/or in relation to SMEs that did not receive support), a conclusion is made about the high efficiency of state support for SMEs. It is also established that the impact of various forms of state support on the functioning of SMEs is different.

Gradually and then suddenly: the effects of Russia’s attacks on the evolution of cybersecurity policy in Lithuania

ABSTRACT This article examines how public policy, governance and institutional structures have been established and transformed in response to cyberattacks attributed to Russia that focused political attention in Lithuania. It argues that, despite the growing number of cyberattacks, political and institutional change has initially been slow and it has taken a decade to establish an adequate legal and institutional framework. The reasons for such a slow change are analysed, highlighting limited capacity (lack of understanding of cybersecurity by policy-makers and the lack of attention and other resources allocated to it), institutional fragmentation and coordination problems. It was only after Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 that cybersecurity policy started to be seen through the prism of national security and parliamentary elections created a window of opportunity for change, which resulted in significant policy transformation in 2017–2018. Interestingly, since then it remained relatively stable, even after Russia’s large scale war against Ukraine in 2022, which had only led to operational cybersecurity policy changes in Lithuania. The article contributes to the debates on the role of external shocks on policy change and the mediating factors which can slow down or facilitate change.

Presidential popularity and international crises: an assessment of the rally-‘round-the-flag effect in Russia

ABSTRACT In times of severe international crises, the domestic public typically becomes more loyal to its government, creating a so-called “rally-'round-the-flag” effect and boosting a political leader’s popularity. The bulk of research on the link between international crises and presidential popularity rates deals mostly with the experience of the US and other Western democracies. We focus on the case of Russia as a non-democratic major power. Our empirical analysis investigates whether military conflicts with Russian involvement are followed by an increase in presidential popularity during the presidencies of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. The results of our monthly time-series estimation reveal that a boost in popularity, if there is one at all, is on average small in magnitude for less violent conflicts, whereas a substantially important increase in presidential approval ratings can be observed after international crises in which violence is a central element of conflict management from the very beginning.

“Ukraine on Fire” – Some Remarks on the Causes and Effects of Russia’s War with Ukraine and the Impact of Hostilities on the Right to Secure Critical Infrastructure

“Ukraine on Fire” – Some Remarks on the Causes and Effects of Russia’s War with Ukraine and the Impact of Hostilities on the Right to Secure Critical Infrastructure

Small Powers, Geopolitical Crisis and Hypersecuritisation: Latvia and the Effects of Russia’s Second War in Ukraine

This article presents a case where securitisation of one state in another increased dramatically and exponentially. The scale and intensity of securitisation were unprecedented, as were the range of securitisation actors, and the tone of language of speech acts and nonverbal securitisation acts. This case in question is the securitisation of Russia in Latvia over Russia’s war in Ukraine starting in 2022. Although Russia was securitised by its smaller neighbour before the war, the sudden explosion of securitisation in 2022 differs from any securitisation in recent decades there. Securitisation of Russia is evaluated within the margins of the hypersecuritisation subconcept that purports securitisation beyond the ‘normal’ level, characterised by exaggeration of threats and excessive countermeasures. This article offers a reformulation of the subconcept, omitting the negative connotation built into the initial definition, as well as addresses the transition from securitisation to hypersecuritisation.

ОЦЕНКА ВЛИЯНИЯ ФУНКЦИОНИРОВАНИЯ БАНКА ГРУДНОГО МОЛОКА НА РАСПРОСТРАНЕННОСТЬ ИСКЛЮЧИТЕЛЬНО ГРУДНОГО ВСКАРМЛИВАНИЯ В НЕОНАТАЛЬНОМ СТАЦИОНАРЕ: РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ

Due to the new legislative sanitary and epidemiological rules and norms that came into effect in Russia in 2021 and the obvious advantages of breast milk (BM), there is an increasing trend towards its use in neonatal clinics in the form of BM banks (BMBs). The purpose of this retrospective research was to assess the impact of BMBs in a neonatal hospital on the prevalence of breastfeeding (BF) of infants at discharge. Materials and methods used: the study included 692 infants at the age of the first 28 days of life who were hospitalized in the Neonatal Pathology Department with the National Medical Research Center for Children’s Health (which is located in Moscow, Russia) prior to the opening of BMB (Group 1) and during the BMB functioning (Group 2). Results: it was found that mothers from G2 pumped BM statistically significantly more often than mothers from G1 (64% vs. 43%). The incidence of exclusive BF (EBF) at discharge statistically significantly increased compared to the same indicator at admission, in both groups: from 41% to 51% in 2013 (p<0.001) and from 48% to 65% in 2015 (p<0.001). The prevalence of EBF at discharge during the BMB functioning in 2015 (65%) was therefore statistically significantly higher compared to this indicator in 2013 (51%), p=0.009. Conclusion: the strong positive effect from BMB on the prevalence of BF at discharge from the hospital was recorded.

Incentive-oriented economic statecraft by Russia in the nuclear energy sector of democratic countries

ABSTRACT The literature on incentive-oriented economic statecraft, specifically its so-called domestic conditionalist strand, identifies the political arrangements in the target state as a primary factor in the success or failure of the sender state’s economic statecraft. Drawing on existing literature, this article on Russia’s economic statecraft in democratic countries focuses on the nuclear energy sector, arguing that democratic backsliding in target states might provide a window of opportunity for Moscow. The effectiveness of Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy company, Rosatom, in building nuclear power plants in South Africa, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Finland is assessed in this article.

Process of Transformation to Net Zero Steelmaking: Decarbonisation Scenarios Based on the Analysis of the Polish Steel Industry

The European steel industry is experiencing new challenges related to the market situation and climate policy. Experience from the period of pandemic restrictions and the effects of Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine has given many countries a basis for including steel along with raw materials (coke, iron ore, electricity) in economic security products (CRMA). Steel is needed for economic infrastructure and construction development as well as a material for other industries (without steel, factories will not produce cars, machinery, ships, washing machines, etc.). In 2022, steelmakers faced a deepening energy crisis and economic slowdown. The market situation prompted steelmakers to impose restrictions on production volumes (worldwide production fell by 4% compared to the previous year). Despite the difficult economic situation of the steel industry (production in EU countries fell by 11% in 2022 compared to the previous year), the EU is strengthening its industrial decarbonisation policy (“Fit for 55”). The decarbonisation of steel production is set to accelerate by 2050. To sharply reduce carbon emissions, steel mills need new steelmaking technologies. The largest global, steelmakers are already investing in new technologies that will use green hydrogen (produced from renewable energy sources). Reducing iron ore with hydrogen plasma will drastically reduce CO2 emissions (steel production using hydrogen could emit up to 95% less CO2 than the current BF + BOF blast furnace + basic oxygen furnace integrated method). Investments in new technologies must be tailored to the steel industry. A net zero strategy (deep decarbonisation goal) may have different scenarios in different EU countries. The purpose of this paper was to introduce the conditions for investing in low-carbon steelmaking technologies in the Polish steel market and to develop (based on expert opinion) scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Polish steel industry.

The Effect of Russia's 2014 Annexation of Crimea on Military Expenditures of European Union Countries

NATO’nun koruma şemsiyesi altındaki ülke sayısı en son 2020'de Kuzey Makedonya’nın katılımı ile 30’a yükselmiştir. Rusya’nın yayılmacı politikalarına karşı bu koruma avantajdan yararlanmak isteyen Ukrayna, Gürcistan, Bosna Hersek, İsveç ve Finlandiya’da üyelik müzakerelerini sürdürmektedir. 2014 yılında Rus silahlı birlikleri Ukrayna’nın Kırım bölgesini ilhak etmiş fakat bu durum Birleşmiş Milletler ve Avrupa Birliği gibi uluslararası kuruluşlar tarafından hiçbir zaman tanınmamıştır. NATO’ya üyeliğin önemi altı üyesi dışında hepsi NATO üyesi olan Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri için Rusya-Ukrayna arasında yaşanan gerilimlerde bir kez daha ortaya çıkmıştır. Rusya 2022 yılının Şubat ayında Ukrayna’nın Herson, Zaporijya, Donetsk ve Luhansk bölgelerini kapsayan daha geniş bir işgal harekâtını başlatarak bölgedeki gerilimi üst bir noktaya taşımıştır. Rusya’nın son dönem batıya doğru yayılmacı politikaları ve süregelen işgal hareketleri Avrupa Birliği’ni teşkil eden 27 ülke için milli savunmaları açısından riskleri artırmış ve neticesinde devlet bütçelerinden savunma harcamalarına ayrılan paylarını değiştirmelerini zorunlu kılmıştır. Birlik üyesi ülkeler güvenlik kaygılarını bertaraf edebilmek için savunma harcamalarını artırmışlardır. Bu çalışma ile öncelikle Rusya-Ukrayna arasında yaşanan gelişmeler tarihsel bir süreç içerisinde ele alınmakta ve sonrasında Avrupa Birliği’ne üye ülkelerin savunma amaçlı yaptıkları harcamaların yaşanan gelişmelere karşı seyri incelenmektedir. Çalışmada Kırım’ın ilhak edildiği tarih olan 2014 yılının etkilerinin daha belirgin hale gelebilmesi için analiz periyodu 2007-2014 ve 2014-2021 dönemleri olarak ayrıştırılmıştır. SIPRI veri tabanından elde edilen veriler ile Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin 2007-2021 dönemi için askeri harcama gelişmeleri incelenmektedir. Çalışma bulgularına göre Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin toplam askeri harcamaları 2007 yılında yaklaşık 213 milyar dolar iken 2014 yılında bu tutar 208 milyar seviyesine gerilemiştir. 2007-2014 periyodunda sadece 7 ülke askeri harcamalarını çok küçük oranlarda da olsa artırmıştır. 2014 deki ilhaktan sonra tüm üye ülkelerin askeri harcamalarını artırması ile 2021 yılına gelindiğinde Avrupa Birliği’nin toplam harcama tutarı yaklaşık 49 milyar dolar artarak 257 milyar doları geçmiştir. 2014-2021 döneminde birlik üyesi olarak harcamalarını oransal en çok artıran ilk üç ülke sırasıyla; Litvanya (%191), Letonya (%180) ve Macaristan (%130) olmuştur.

Political commentary on world hunger triggered by war in Ukraine

ABSTRACT Statistics highlight the importance of Ukraine to world food security and the immediate effects of Russia’s war. The essence of food security and the reasons behind shortage of food in the poorest countries of the world are considered against the backdrop of the disruption of Ukraine’s grain exports. Recommendations are offered to prevent the present crisis in Ukraine descending into a global food crisis: these include adaptation of the established mechanism of coordination to resume exports; support for Ukrainian producers; continued close relationship with states that provide humanitarian, financial, and political support; and, best of all, cessation of Russian aggression.

From Geopolitical Threats to Cyberwarfare: The Effect of Russia's Threats on Corporate Cybersecurity in the United States

From Geopolitical Threats to Cyberwarfare: The Effect of Russia's Threats on Corporate Cybersecurity in the United States

NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND NUCLEAR INTIMIDATION IN RUSSIA’S POLICY

Nuclear weapons play a key role in Russia’s security thinking. Concepts of the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation include both doctrinally defined nuclear deterrence and doctrinally indefinite nuclear intimidation. The latter has become a central element of the hybrid war waged by Russia. The failure to achieve the initial goals of Russian large-scale military aggression against Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, has affected Russia’s nuclear policy. The criteria for the use of nuclear weapons in conventional warfare and the forms of nuclear intimidation have changed.
 The effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear policy depends on the degree of compliance of its components with established international norms, formed within the framework of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. These norms can be defined as the global nuclear order. Russia’s policy of nuclear intimidation falls out of this order and creates a “nuclear disorder”. Currently, it is losing effectiveness for the Russian leadership, since it is increasingly seen as a “nuclear bluff”. Russia is trying to hide its nuclear intimidation behind the doctrinal provisions of nuclear deterrence, which generally remains effective.
 In the war against Ukraine, Russia is actively trying to artificially create criteria for the use of nuclear weapons that would formally correspond to the global nuclear order, while leaving room for nuclear intimidation. In particular, this may explain accusations against Ukraine of developing weapons of mass destruction and Russia’s attempts to annex the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories as soon as possible.
 The creation of a postwar architecture of international security will require bringing Russian nuclear policy to the norms of the global nuclear order.

A scientometric study of articles on health effectiveness in Russia

BACKGROUND: The relevance of this study lies in the systematic analysis of scientific and methodological approaches to the study and evaluation of health care as a multidimensional and multi-level system.
 AIM: To systematize methodological approaches to the study of the effectiveness of the health care system in the Russian Federation.
 MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective categorical analysis of original studies belonging to the genre scientific article and devoted to the effectiveness (quality) of the health care system in Russia, published in domestic scientific periodicals from the period 2011 to 2021, was carried out. The categorical analysis included the following parameters: healthcare system, efficiency, methods and revealed 144 publications. The usual selection process excluded 17 publications. Based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 48 sources were selected. All original studies were divided into either medical and non-medical according to the author's specialization. The analysis allowed for the revelation and parameterization of scientific-methodological tendencies of researches on public health effectiveness according to statistical-structural-dynamic characteristics of researches and specialization of the author (medical and non-medical specialization). The main methods used in the original research were analyzed.
 RESULTS: The structure of the scientific publications was dominated by the results of original research (64%). No systematic reviews and meta-analyses were identified. The increase in the dynamics of publication activity on the stated topic was due to original research. Most of the trials were conducted at the meso-level (70.8%). There were virtually no works devoted to the results of original research conducted at the countrywide level. A set of sociological, medical-statistical and economic methods was used as the main research tool for studying efficiency. Sociological methods and approaches for analyzing official medical statistics prevailed in pure form. Demography and mathematical modeling methods were the least used. No quantitative differences were found in the authors' specialization. Differences in the authors' gravitation toward the study of different types of efficiency were observed depending on the researchers' specialization, as well as the frequency of studies on economic and social efficiency in their study at the meso- and macro-level and the use of methodological apparatus in the study of these types of efficiency.
 CONCLUSION: The core of the publication activity is formed by the results of original research obtained at the meso-level, with research conducted at the macro-level being practically absent. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were completely absent. There was homogeneity in the use of different types of effectiveness research methods. The findings of this study suggest that there is a practical need for quantitative and qualitative systematization of the experience gained in studying health system efficiency, particularly at the national level, as a prerequisite for effective planning of its development.

НАСЛІДКИ ВТОРГНЕННЯ РОСІЇ НА УКРАЇНСЬКУ ТЕРИТОРІЮ ДЛЯ СВІТОВОГО ПРОДОВОЛЬЧОГО ТА ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОГО РИНКУ

On February 24, 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine or “special military operation” in Ukraine caused a shock around the world. The article examines the impact of the war between Ukraine and Russia on the world food and energy sector. Global resource markets suffer from the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the two countries are major suppliers of energy, food and fertilizers. Supply disruptions and the sudden introduction of unprecedented economic sanctions, trade restrictions and political interventions in response to the crisis have led to a sharp rise in commodity prices. Prior to the conflict, demand for global resources already exceeded supply and raised prices as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led to a global cost of living crisis characterized by rising levels of energy and food poverty. This situation is likely to worsen significantly as a result of the war in Ukraine and pose a threat to human security, especially among the poor and vulnerable. The extremely negative consequences of the war require more detailed study and analysis, which will allow us to form an objective understanding of the world economy during the war. Mitigating the effects of war on the population is a top priority for politicians, so understanding the economic situation is essential. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis poses new challenges to the international community, exacerbating supply chain disruptions, market instability, resource instability, displacement and significant geopolitical change. Governments must build the longterm resilience of societies and economies to global shocks. There is an urgent need for aggressive external intervention to avoid a food crisis. The exchange of information between countries on their food status, as well as the preservation of borders for agricultural exports, proposed by the G7 agriculture ministers, is an important response to the looming food crisis. It has been found out that close links with trade and the payment system will limit trade, remittances, investment and tourism, negatively affecting economic growth, inflation and external and fiscal accounts. Although raw material exporters should benefit from higher international prices, they run the risk of declining energy exports if sanctions apply to pipelines through Russia.The main consequences of the war will lead to higher food and energy prices and a tougher global financial situation. Socio-economic pressures in many countries will increase, as well as the vulnerability of public debt and the effects of the pandemic, which has already plagued millions of households and businesses.

Navigating Rough Waters: Global Shipping and Challenges for the North Range Ports

Ports and shipping have been in the spotlight in 2021 with surging demand, skyrocketing freight rates and week-long queues. This development stands against the background of the current global COVID-19 pandemic. Amid these disruptive waves, the North Range ports (Le Havre to Hamburg) face numerous challenges. This short analysis gives an overview of recent developments in international shipping and the potential for maritime transport as an early indicator for commodity trade. The article also explores the connection in import and export of the North Range ports to their respective countries and the EU. This article contributes to the extent to which maritime traffic data can be linked to economic data. Three long-term key challenges — sustainability, digitalisation and (de)globalisation — are discussed with a focus on the North Range ports as well as the newest effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Landscape in transition in the shadow of 2022 Russia’s invasion in Ukraine – notes from Hungary

This research note focuses on two phenomena: the transformations in the landscape in Hungary as an effect of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and the welcome/help centers that were established to channel mobility and provide a temporary safe space. I suggest that liminality (which serves as a main explanatory category) is characteristic of both. It is stated that in this context that the bodies of refugees are reminders of the existence of the (state) border, which gets reaffirmed by the process of welcoming and hosting and is also reflected in the visual reminders in the landscape. I also divide the management of the refugee crisis into three phases: spontaneous action, institutionalization, and sanitization. With the phase of sanitization (removing the physically existing “indicators” of the war, including refugees, volunteers, signs, and queues) the reality and severity of the war can be concealed, and the “normality” can be reinstated. Research is based on field observations and interviews taken in March 2022 in Budapest, Kisvárda, Vásárosnamény, Barabás, and Beregsurány in Hungary.

Assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's tax policy for economic development

Assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's tax policy for economic development