Real Effective Exchange Research Articles

Estimation of an ARDL (m, p, q, r, s) Model to Determine the Long-run Effects of World Income, Relative Price, Real Exchange Rate and Employment on Export Demand for the Garment Sector of Bangladesh

In this paper, an ARDL (m p, q, r, s, s) log-linear export demand function is estimated to find the long-run impacts of world income, relative price, real exchange rate, and employment on exports of the garment sector of Bangladesh using modern econometric techniques based on time series data from 1979-2020. Long-run significant relationships among exports, relative price, real exchange rate, world income and employment are found. The VEC model's estimated results indicate short-run bidirectional causalities between different pairs of variables. The long-run causalities are found while exports and employment are the endogenous variables. The estimated results indicate that both long-run and short-run exports are influenced positively and significantly by world income. Relative price, real exchange rate and employment carry negative signs for both long-run and short-run in which the effects of relative price and real exchange rate are statistically significant in the long run which implies that a 1% decrease in relative price, exports will increase by 1.256%. It is found that the coefficient of ECM(-1) is -0.9705 which is statistically significant at any significance level, suggesting that when the export value is above its equilibrium level, it will adjust about 97.05% within the first year. The full convergence process to reach the equilibrium level takes more than a year. Thus, this study will help the economists, policymakers and stakeholders of the garment sector of Bangladesh to predict the dynamics of export demand due to changes in world income level, relative price, real exchange rate and employment.

Trade Opening and The Real Effective Exchange Rate of the RMB

This paper uses the Redux model and shows that the fluctuation of the RMB under certain fluctuations; then analyzes the effect of the fluctuation of the RMB on the actual effective exchange rate. The study found that trade opening can reduce the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB; the rationalization of industrial structure can also enhance trade opening and restrain the real effective exchange rate fluctuation of the RMB. Meanwhile, the "Belt and Road" initiative intensifies the real effective exchange rate fluctuation of the RMB, possibly due to the change of the "Belt and Road" initiative and implementation in the total industrial structure of import and export. Therefore, all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) should increase basic research such as science and technology, promote the rationalization of industrial structure, and make the help of the good opportunity of the "Belt and Road" initiative to reduce the real effective exchange rate fluctuations of RMB.

Exchange rate And Enterprise Investment Efficiency

With the change of the political and economic situation at home and abroad, the economic policy and economic environment also change accordingly, and the exchange rate, as an important macroeconomic policy indicator, is also constantly changing. Based on the data of the actual effective exchange rate of RMB released by the Bank of International for International Settlements from 2010 to 2022, this paper verifies the relationship between the actual effective exchange rate of RMB and the investment efficiency of China's A-share listed companies. After empirical analysis, the research results of this paper show that: The rise of the real effective exchange rate of RMB reduces the degree of non-efficient investment of enterprises, mainly reducing the degree of insufficient investment of enterprises, and thus improving the investment efficiency of listed companies. In addition, this paper makes an in-depth analysis from the two aspects of equity concentration and enterprise scale, and concludes that in small-scale enterprises and enterprises with high equity concentration, the positive impact of RMB appreciation on enterprise investment efficiency will be more significant.

Factors Explaining the Real Effective Exchange Rate in Franc Zone: A New View

Although there is an abundant literature on the determinants of the real effective exchange rate, no study has focused specifically on all the African countries in the Franc zone, whose currencies are still pegged to the euro by a fixed parity, despite the end of the gold standard in 1971. The main objective of this article is to identify the main factors explaining the real effective exchange rate in the franc zone. The data used in this work cover 15 countries that use the CFA franc over the period 1990-2019. To achieve our objective, we mobilized several estimation methods such as the Driscoll and Kraay method, the Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) and the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method. The results of this study reveal that inflation, money supply, the interest rate, gross domestic product per capita, imports and direct investment are the main determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the franc zone.

Factors Affecting Food Prices in Pakistan

The purpose of the study is to identify the factors affecting food prices in Pakistan. The findings reveal that there is a negative and significant impact of the real effective exchange rate on wheat prices in the long run. Similarly, the real interest rate affects wheat and rice prices indirectly, while it has a direct impact on tea prices. There is a positive and significant impact of international crude oil prices and international food prices on most food commodities. Moreover, the study explains that in the long run, the increase in local production significantly reduces the prices of food commodities. It is also found that the government policy of adjusting (increasing) wheat support prices also has a positive and significant impact on wheat prices.

Time-variation in the effects of push and pull factors on portfolio flows: Evidence from a Bayesian dynamic factor model

The extent to which push and pull factors affect international capital flows is widely debated. We contribute to this strand of literature by estimating the relative importance of push and pull factors for portfolio flows over a time span, encompassing the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis as well as the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. To do so, we extract common and country-specific components from fund flow data using Bayesian dynamic factor models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Assuming that the common component represents push factors and the country-specific component pull factors, we show that (i) time-variation matters and (ii) there is a substantial amount of heterogeneity in the importance of factors across regions (advanced versus emerging market economies) and asset classes (equity versus bonds). We find that the relative importance of push factors for flows into advanced economies has on average increased over time, particularly for EU countries. With respect to flows into emerging market economies, we find very heterogeneous results between individual countries. Moreover, we identify risk measures, US stock market returns, US real interest rates, the US real effective exchange rate and the oil price as important push factors. Pull factors seem to covary with domestic stock market returns, in particular.

Trade shocks and real effective exchange rates dynamics in Nigeria

Trade shocks and real effective exchange rates dynamics in Nigeria

The Dynamic Link Between Budget and Current Account Balance: Evidence from Selected Upper & Middle Income Countries (A Panel ARDL Approach)

This study elaborates the connection between BD and CAD in selected upper-middle-income countries (UMC’s) by employing the panel data over the period from 2000 to 2020. This paper also tries to evaluate that weather the theory of Ricardian Equivalence or Keynesian Approach exists in case of selected upper-middle-income countries. First, we would apply the ADF approach to check the stationarity between the variable. After that, ARDL econometrics approach is adopted in order to check the long-run and short- run association among Current Account Balances (CAB), Fiscal Deficit (FD), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), GDP Per Capita Growth (GDPPCG) and Trade. The findings showed that FD, REER, GDPPCG and trade have positive impact on CAB. While, in the long-run GFCF affects CAB negatively. This paper also pointed out that the Keynesian Theory is more suitable for selected upper-middle-income economies.

De-industrialization in Azerbaijan's Textile Subsectors: Canonical Correlation Analysis and the Dutch Disease Hypothesis

Since 2014, academic studies have increasingly underscored the potential adverse consequences associated with Azerbaijan's imbalanced and dependent economic structure. It is widely recognized that countries relying heavily on the export of primary commodities are ill-prepared for situations characterized by sharp declines in international commodity prices. Hence, the objective of this paper is to examine the Azerbaijani economy amidst two parallel developments: the growth of oil-related macroeconomic indicators and the contraction of non-oil subsectoral industrial production. To achieve this, the analytical framework of the Dutch disease, a widely preferred theory to study commodity exporters, and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) were employed in the period 1995 to 2021. The findings reveal statistically significant canonical correlations between certain subsectors of the textile industry (such as ginned cotton, cotton fabric, silk fabric, bed linen of cotton, and cotton yarn) and the Dutch disease variables (e.g., oil rent, real effective exchange rate), while other subsectors (including carpets, crocheted legwear and garments, outerwear, underwear, and footwear) do not exhibit similar patterns. These results show that non-consumer subsectors of the textile subsectors, especially the cotton sector, are more vulnerable to the effects of Dutch disease than consumer subsectors of the textile subsectors. In addition, the oil rent variable is a persistent channel that shows a negative correlation with the latent variables of the textile subsectors. These results prompt policymakers and researchers to reassess the role of large extractive industries in a small, open economy like Azerbaijan and to formulate economic policies that safeguard and foster specific subsectors.

Revisiting the Nexus between Turkish Tourism Index Returns and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Partial Wavelet Coherence Analysis

This study reevaluates the well-documented negative relationship between the Turkish tourism index stock returns and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices using a wide range of EPU indices that span from 1997 to 2003. The aim of the paper is to find out whether EPU indices a have particular importance for the tourism companies’ stock returns or they end up with the same consequences regardless of the sector. To this end, Partial Wavelet Coherence analysis is conducted using the BIST 100 and the real effective exchange rate indices as conditioning variables. Results show that the negative relationship between the EPU indices and Turkish tourism index returns tends to disappear when controlled for the BIST 100 index returns. EPUs are shown to have no particular effect on the excess stock return performance of Turkish tourism companies. The policy uncertainties in Europe (particularly in France and, to a lesser extent in Germany) become effective only after controlling also for the changes in real effective exchange rates.

Analysis of the Influence of the Exchange Rate Reform and COVID-19 on the Real Exchange Rate of the Dirham using the BEER Methodology: Case of Morocco

Abstract This article assesses the deviation of Morocco's real effective exchange rate (REER) from its equilibrium, in the wake of the reform of the exchange rate regime and the COVID-19 crisis. Adopting the BEER approach, we examine the evolution of the dirham and discern the internal and external factors influencing its deviation. After elucidating the concept of the equilibrium rate, we detail the methodology employed. Our conclusions reveal the notable impact of the 2018 reform on the REER, marked by the widening of the dirham's fluctuation band, inducing a significant depreciation. In addition, the pandemic has accentuated economic vulnerability, with a recession of -7.2% in 2020. In short, economic equilibrium is essential if Morocco is to face up to the challenges that lie ahead. Competitiveness indicators must be rigorously monitored to guarantee Morocco's competitive position internationally. Keywords: Real effective exchange rate; Equilibrium rate; BEER approach; Exchange rate regime reform; COVID-19.

Demand for Money and Inflation in Ethiopia

One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function. Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money supply which is vital in controlling the inflation rate in the economy and also preventing monetary disturbances from affecting real output. In order to formulate and estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia, this study used quarterly data from 2000Q3 to 2021Q2 and employed the Ordinary Least Square method and Engle-Granger two-stage procedure for empirical analysis. The empirical result from the models indicates that, in the long run, all variables (real GDP, CPI inflation, real effective exchange rate, real interest rate and lagged real money balance) are significantly affecting the demand for money in Ethiopia. Whereas, the estimated coefficients of the short-run variable show that the real effective exchange rate, CPI inflation, and lagged real money balance are the main determinants of demand for money while the real GDP and real interest rate are insignificant. Another important finding is that absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term implies that about 54.2% of the disequilibrium in real money demand is counter-balanced by short-run adjustment in each quarter. The study suggests that in conducting monetary policy, policymakers should consider not only the behavior of income and price but also the movement of exchange rates. The study also calls for appropriate formulation and estimation of the all-encompassing demand for money function that is capable of bringing stability to the growth of money coupled with sustainable economic growth.

Augmented Gravity Model of Trade with Social Network Analysis

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development recognizes international trade as an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction, and an important means to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Given this role, international trade and global trade networks have received preeminent attention in recent times due to the sharp growth in trade volumes and their contributions to poverty reduction and sustainable development over the years. Despite the growth in global trade volumes and the associated benefits, there are worrying concerns about the unprecedented changes in international trade patterns and growing imbalances in trade in recent times. Whereas China’s trade volumes have more than tripled over recent decades and have maintained the largest trade surplus spot ahead of Germany, other major trade surplus countries such as Japan, the USA, etc., have become trade deficit countries with their trade volumes increasing at a much slower pace. In view of the growing changes in international trade patterns and the need to understand the dynamics of the widening global trade imbalances among major trading partners, this paper investigates the factors that determine the export performance of countries. More specifically, the purpose of this paper is to highlight the forces that determine the export performance of countries using an augmented gravity model that includes social networks. The paper provides useful insights into the underlying currents responsible for the changes in international trade patterns. Using data from 51 countries for 41 years, our results indicate that the GDP of both the home country and the partner country affects the home country’s exports positively. Similarly, the real effective exchange rate REER, trade openness OPEN, and dummy variables BORDER, ENGLISH, and EU have produced positive and statistically significant coefficient estimates, and these are in line with our theoretical expectations.

Assessing the Role of Forest Certification and Macroeconomic Indicators on Croatian Wood Exports to the EU: A Panel Data Approach

In the wood industry, forest certification stands as a pivotal factor that supports the implementation of sustainability and market acceptance. Recognizing its significance for both the wood sector and exports, this study explores the impact of Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) Chain of Custody certificates on the export of Croatian wood to European Union (EU) countries. Through a dynamic panel data analysis using the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, our aim is to uncover the implications of this certification on wood industry exports. Additionally, the model assesses other determinants of wood exports, such as GDP, GDP per capita, remoteness, manufacturing value added, unemployment, and the real effective exchange rate. The results indicate that the number of FSC certificates during the observed period (2000–2021) have a positive and significant impact on wood exports from Croatia, suggesting that wood certification plays a predominant role in shaping such exports. Furthermore, the econometric analysis confirms the statistical significance of selected macroeconomic indicators, including nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, unemployment, added value of manufacturing and real effective exchange rate, on wood exports. This study emphasizes the importance of forest certification in promoting wood exports and improving market competitiveness, offering a unique contribution to the literature by considering a range of macroeconomic factors in the analysis.

Macroeconomic Stability and Optimal Policy Mix

Public welfare and macroeconomic stability should be the main objectives of fiscal and monetary policy cooperation. Monetary and fiscal policy should be coordinated better to maintain sustainable economic development. To implement fiscal measures and monetary controls, a balanced budget is necessary. This study uses data from 1976 to 2022. A macroeconomic stability check uses real GDP, current account balance, exports, real effective exchange rate, broad money (M2), foreign exchange reserves, consumer price index (CPI), nominal exchange rate, government expenditures, and government tax revenue. The VAR models we use are Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and Variance Decompositions (VDs). CMR feels a negative impact, TRY, whereas M2G, GY, and others feel a positive impact. Achieving output and price stability requires higher call money rates, more tax revenues, and reduced government spending. Output gaps should be negative.M2G and CABY are negatively correlated, whereas CABY and CMR are positively correlated. If there is a negative output gap, monetary aggregates and taxes conflict with price and production stability; however, policy should aim to increase the current account balance. We recommend strict fiscal and monetary policy measures to stabilize output and limit inflation whenever there is a positive output gap. In addition to strengthening trade and foreign exchange reserves, reduced government spending will stabilize exchange rates; however, increasing tax revenue will counteract these benefits by strengthening the current account.

Where Does Value-Added Flow in Gross Exports, Mr. Newton? Global Supply Chains and New Regionalization's Effects in the Asia-Pacific

The New Trade Theory proposes that participating in global supply chains (GVCs) enhances productivity and economies of scale. However, recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine crisis have exposed the vulnerabilities of GVCs to global risks. This study investigates the relationship between gross exports and the domestic value-added content of such exports, considering various factors, including labor productivity, especially in Belt and Road Initiative countries (A-P Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]). We analyze the role of GVCs using cross-sectional and panel data from the 2021 OECD Trade in Value-Added. Over the period from 2009 to 2018, we observed that countries with increasing productivity exported goods, services, and value-added to other countries experiencing similar productivity. Our findings indicate that export concentration contributes to increased value-added exports. However, we could not validate the effects of R&D spending, the real effective exchange rate, foreign direct investment inflows, and A-P BRI membership contributions using the difference-in-differences method.

Drivers of Nigeria’s real house prices: long-run analysis and short-run dynamics

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-run and short-run drivers of real house prices in Nigeria from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4. Design/methodology/approach Vector autoregression and cointegration tests were used to assess the key drivers of Nigeria’s real house prices in the long run and short run. Findings The empirical findings revealed that household disposable income is the most important determinant of house prices in Nigeria. House prices increased by 1.6% and 60.8% in response to a 1% increase in disposable income in the long run and short run, respectively, while real mortgage credits pushed up house prices by 5% and have no long-run effects, suggesting that most Nigerians depend on their money income rather than credits in securing a home. In addition, prices of oil sector products and real interest rates had negative and significant relationship with house prices, while positive correlations were found for real effective exchange rate and real housing investments regardless of the time horizon. The impact of construction costs and cement prices was also documented. Originality/value This is likely a pioneering study of its kind to focus on the determinants of real house prices in Nigeria. It is probably the first study, the best of the author’s knowledge, to empirically examine the impact of the oil sector on house prices in the country.

Factors Responsible for Movements in Real Effective Exchange Rate of Selected African Countries

The study examined the determinants of real effective exchange rate on selected African countries, namely, Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Egypt, Gabon, Ghana, and Chad over the sample period of 1980 to 2023. The vector error correction methodology was used in the study. The results suggest the following findings; In Nigeria, variations in the real effective exchange rate responded significantly and positively to Brent crude oil prices, domestic inflation rate, external debt burden, the volume of foreign exchange reserves, and prices of primary export. It also responded negatively to foreign investment flows. Whenever the real effective exchange rate deviated from its equilibrium, 74% of its disequilibrium was restored in Nigeria. In Libya, the response of real effective exchange rate was positive and significantly related to commodity prices of primary export but responded negatively and significantly to Brent crude oil prices, foreign investment inward stock, and foreign reserve holdings. In addition, 57% of the disequilibrium in the real effective exchange rate of the Libya currency was restored to the long-term value. In Angola, it was found that the variations in the real effective exchange rate had a positive and significant response with Brent crude oil prices and foreign investment inflows. It however responded negatively with a significance balance of payments and the volume of foreign reserves. About 60% of the disequilibrium in the real effective exchange rate was restored to the long-term value in Angola. In Egypt, the real effective exchange rate responded positively with significance to Brent crude oil prices, foreign investment inflows, and prices of primary export. Additionally, it responded negatively and significantly to the domestic inflation rate and external reserve holdings. Within the period of study in Egypt, 53% of the disequilibrium in the real effective exchange rate was restored to equilibrium. In Gabon, variations in the real effective exchange rate had a positive and significant response with Brent crude oil prices, real interest rate, external debt burden, and the volume of foreign exchange reserves. Also in Gabon, the real effective exchange rate responded negatively and significantly to the inflation rate and prices of primary export. Accordingly, 82% of the disequilibrium in the real effective exchange rate was restored to equilibrium. The Ghanaian real effective exchange rate relative to the dollar responded significantly and positively to Brent crude oil prices, domestic inflation rate, foreign debt burden, and foreign investment flows while it negatively responded to the Ghanaian balance of payment position. Each time the real effective exchange rate of the Ghanaian cedi deviated from its equilibrium value, 79% of its disequilibrium was restored. In Chad, variations in the real effective exchange rate responded significantly but negatively to the domestic inflation rate while it positively and significantly responded to Brent crude oil prices, external balance position, the volume of foreign reserve holdings, and foreign direct investment inflows. Also, whenever the real effective exchange rate deviated from its equilibrium value in Chad, 65% of its disequilibrium was restored in the long run. Based on these results, policymakers should focus on addressing structural constraints, commodity price fluctuations, and improve the business environment by anchoring policies of economic stability to boost competitiveness in trade and industry. There is also the need for policymakers to consider country-specific factors when formulating exchange rates.

Neo-Fisher Yaklaşımından Döviz Kuru, Faiz ve Enflasyon Spiralinin Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği

In this study, it has been determined whether the Neo-Fisher effect is valid in Turkey, and an examination has been made of the exchange rate, inflation, export, and import effects within the framework of the applied interest policies. In the study, structural break time series analysis was used to examine the consumer price index, nominal interest rates, real effective exchange rate, and export-import linkages in Turkey with monthly data in the period 2003:M1-2021:M9. Lee-Strazicich unit root test was used for multiple structural break unit root test, and the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test) method with dummy variables was used for long and short term relationships between series. In the analysis findings, the existence of long-term and short-term cointegration between exports, imports, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation has been determined. Exports and imports are most affected by the exchange rate in both the long and short run. Inflation is affected by both the exchange rate and interest rates in the long and short run. The effect of the exchange rate on inflation is much greater than that of interest rates.

The Relationship Between Net Errors and Omissions Item and Real Effective Exchange Rate Index: A Study on Turkey

Ödemeler dengesi tablosunda yer alan net hata ve noksan (NHN) kalemi, bilançoda denkleştirme unsuru olarak kullanılmaktadır. Türkiye’nin NHN kaleminin son yıllarda sergilediği yüksek hacimli iniş ve çıkışlar kamuoyunda tartışılmaktadır. Türkiye için hesaplanan NHN kalemi 1984-2022 döneminde ortalama 1,3 milyar dolar fazla vermiştir. 1984-2000 yılları arasında 8 defa fazla, 9 defa açık veren NHN kalemi, 2001-2022 döneminde 13 defa fazla, 9 defa açık vermiştir. Ayrıca 2018 yılında NHN fazlalığı 21,08 milyar dolar ile Türkiye için tüm zamanların rekor seviyesine ulaşmıştır. Bu çalışmada, NHN kalemi ile reel efektif döviz kur endeksi (REK) arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, 2003:01-2022:10 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak üç dönem (2003-2010, 2010-2022 ve 2003-2022) için ekonometrik analiz yapılmıştır. Ekonometrik analizde, içsel kırılmaları dikkate alan Hatemi-J eş bütünleşme testi ve NHN kalemi ile REK endeksinin pozitif ve negatif şoklarını dikkate alan Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, NHN kalemi ile REK endeksinin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmedikleri tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik test sonuçlarının ise dönemler arasında farklılaştığı ve ulaşılan bazı sonuçların ekonometrik olarak anlamlı olsa da iktisadi açıdan yorumlanmasının doğru olmayacağına karar verilmiştir. Örneğin; 2010-2022 döneminde REK değişkenindeki pozitif şoklardan kümülatif olarak hesaplanan NHN değişkenindeki hem pozitif hem de negatif şoklara doğru bir nedensellik olması iktisadi bir anlam taşımamaktadır. Söz konusu bu durum, REK değişkeni ile NHN değişkeni arasında tutarlı bir ilişkinin olmadığı şeklinde yorumlanmıştır.