Workpiece deformation induced by surface residual stress during turning is a serious concern in the manufacturing of thin-walled parts. Prediction of machining deformations caused by residual stress is essential to explain deformation mechanism and design machining strategies. Although many studies have been focused on calculating those deformations using the finite element method (FEM), it is time-consuming and redundant. Based on energy equations considering residual stress fields developed by the three-dimensional elastic theory and the principle of minimum potential energy, a new analytic model was established to predict machining deformation of the thin circular parts. In this model, the modified Rayleigh-Ritz method and pseudo inverse method were used to solve energy equations under various machining conditions to obtain machining deformation. Corresponding experiments and existing methods were considered to validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model. Based on the quantitative results of the proposed model, the effects of machining conditions on machining deformation were discussed comprehensively, which provides guidance for machining strategies. • The energy equations of the thin circular plates considering residual stress distributions in all directions is developed. • The improved Rayleigh–Ritz method associated with the pseudo inverse method are used to solve the machining deformation . • The influence factors of machining deformation induced by residual stresses are comprehensively analyzed.